Module 1

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING (HRP)

Human Resource Forecasting

HR Forecasting attempts to determine the supply and demand for various types of human resources, and to predict areas within the organization where there will be labor shortages or surpluses. There are three major steps to forecasting: 1. Forecasting the demand for labor 2. Determining labor supply 3. Determining labor surpluses and shortages

Human Resource Supply and Demand

A simplified explanation of forecasting labor demand and supply
Labor Supply The availability of workers with the required skills to meet the firms labor demand. Labor Demand How many workers the organization will need in the future. Human resource planning The process an organization uses to ensure that it has the right amount and the right kind of people to deliver a particular level of output or services in the future.

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

In light of the organizations objectives, corporate and business level strategies, HRP is the process of analyzing an organizations human resource needs and developing plans, policies, and systems to satisfy those needs

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

Role of HRP
Setting human resource objectives and deciding how to meet them.

Ensuring HR resource supply meets human resource demands.

HRP Process
Interfacing with strategic planning and scanning the environment. Taking an inventory of the companys current human resources. Forecasting demand for human resources. Forecasting the supply of HR from within the organization and in the external labor market.

HRP Process Cont.

Comparing forecasts of demand and supply. Planning the actions needed to deal with anticipated shortage or overages. Feeding back such information into the strategic planning process.

Organization al Objectives

Human Resource Requirements

Human Resource Programs

Feasibility Analysis

HRP Model
Strategic Human Resource Planning Links 1 & 5: HR objectives are linked to organizational objectives and planning. Designed to insure consistency between organization's strategic planning process and HRP. So objectives of strategic plan are feasible and HR programs are designed around what organizational objectives and strategies require in terms of human resource goals.

2 Human Resource Requirements Human Resource Programs

Organization al Objectives

Feasibility Analysis
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HRP Model Cont.

Operational Human Resource Planning Steps 2,3, & 4

Ensure HRP programs are coordinated and allows the organization to meet its human resource requirements.

Open new product line

Open new factory and distribution system

Develop staffing for new installation Production workers Supervisors Technical staff Other managers

Recruit skilled workers

Develop technical training programs Transfer managers from other facilities 4

Recruiting and training programs 3 feasible Transfers infeasible because of lack of managers with right skills Too costly to hire from outside

Develop new objectives and plans

Recruit managers from outside

Link 1:Determine Demand(labor requirements)

How many people need to be working and in what jobs to implement organizational strategies and attain organizational objectives. Involves forecasting HR needs based on organizational objectives. Involves consideration of alternative ways of organizing jobs (job design, organizational design or staffing jobs). Example - Peak production could be handled by temporary workers or assigning overtime. Machine breakdowns assigned to maintenance department or handled by machine operators.

Link 2: Determine HR Supply (availability)

Choose HRM programs (supply) Involves forecasting or predicting effect of various HR programs on employee flowing into, through and out various job classifications. First determine how well existing programs are doing then forecast what additional programs or combination of programs will do Need to know capabilities of various programs and program combinations

Determine Feasibility Links 3 & 4 Capable of being done Requires knowledge of programs, how programs fit together and external environmental constraints (e.g., labor force, labor unions, technology created skill shortages) and internal environmental constraints (skill shortages within the organization, financial resources, managerial attitudes, culture) Do the benefits outweigh the costs Difficulty in quantifying costs and benefits

Revise Organizational Objectives and Strategies Link 5

If no feasible HR program can be devised, the organization must revise strategic plans.

Shortcomings of the model - HRP in Practice

Oversimplification of the benefit of planning is the specific plans that result Planning process has value in and of itself HRP in practice is usually less rational and may omit one or more of the steps May lack knowledge required for forecasting Incorrect assumptions about effectiveness of HR programs Does not engage in strategic planning Resistance to change present HR systems

HRP should be :
Done to guide and coordinate all HR activities so they work together to support the overall strategy
Responsive to internal and external environment Planning - done in advance Strategic - linked with higher level planning

Estimating future human resource requirements Or Human Resource Forecasting

Human Resource Forecasting

Process of projecting the organizations future HR needs (demand) and how it will meet those needs (supply) under a given set of assumptions about the organizations policies and the environmental conditions in which it operates. Without forecasting cannot assess the disparity between supply and demand nor how effective an HR program is in reducing the disparity.

DEMAND FORECASTING Determine organization al objectives

Choose human resource programs

SUPPLY FORECASTING

Internal programs

External programs Recruiting External selection Executive exchange

Promotion
Transfer Career planning

Demand forecast for each objective

Training

Turnover control
Internal supply forecast External supply forecast Does aggregate supply meet aggregate demand?

Aggregate demand forecast

No

Aggregate supply forecast

Yes

Go to feasibility analysis steps

Two Steps Demand Forecasting Supply Forecasting

Internal Supply Forecasting Information Organizational features (e.g., staffing capabilities) Productivity - rates of productivity, productivity changes Rates of promotion, demotion, transfer and turnover.

External Supply Forecasting Information

External labor market factors (retirements, mobility, education, unemployment) Controllable company factors on external factors (entry-level openings, recruiting, compensation)

Demand Forecasting Information

Organizational and unit strategic plans Size of organization Staff and Managerial Support Organizational design

Considerations in Establishing a Forecasting System

How sophisticated Appropriate time frame Subjective versus objective forecasting methods

System Sophistication
Organizational size large organizations require more complex forecasting systems and likely to have the required skilled staff Organizational complexity complex career paths and diverse skill requirements lead to more complex forecasting systems Organizational objectives the greater the gap between current HR situation and desired HR situation the more sophisticated the system Organizational plans and strategies the complex the plans are the more complex the forecasting system

Forecasting Time Frame

Depends on degree of environmental uncertainty Factors creating uncertainty (shortening time frame) many new competitors, changes in technology, changes in social, political and economic climate, unstable product demand

Factors promoting stability (longer time frame) strong competitive position, slowly developing technology, stable product demand.

Subjective VS. Objective Forecasting

Objective is inappropriate when: Lack expertise to use objective methods Lack the historical data or HR data base is inadequate Forecasting horizon is too long for the available objective method

Understanding the Labor market

 Estimate of numbers and kinds of employees the organization will need at future dates. Demand for firms goods or services must be forecast Forecast is then converted into people requirements (Trying to predict future staffing needs) Managerial Estimates Sales Projections Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)
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Forecasting HR Requirements (DEMAND ANALYSIS)

Forecasting HR Availability(SUPPLY ANALYSIS)

Determining whether the firm will be able to secure employees with the necessary skills, and from what sources these individuals may be obtained Show whether the needed employees may be obtained from within the company, from outside the organization, or from a combination of the two sources (Predicting worker flows and availabilities) Succession or Replacement Charts Skills Inventories (use of HRIS) Labor Market Analysis Personnel Ratios
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HR Forecasting Techniques
Zero-based forecasting uses current level as starting point for determining future staffing needs Bottom-up approach each level of organization, starting with lowest, forecasts its requirements to provide aggregate of employment needs.

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 Mathematical models Assist in forecasting. Relationship between sales demand and number of employees needed is positive one. Simulation technique with experimenting with real-world situation through a mathematical model.

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The Relationship of Sales Volume to Number of Employees

Number of Employees
500 400 300 200

100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
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Sales (thousands)

Do you agree?
Great companies first got the right people on the bus, the wrong people off the bus, and the right people in the right seats and then they figured out where to drive it.
Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap and Others Dont Jim Collins

Manpower Planning
Manpower Planning is a Process by which an organization ensures that Right number of people Right kind of people At the Right time At the Right place Doing the Right things for which they are suited for achieving the goals of the organization.

Human Resource Planning Process

External Environment Internal Environment
Strategic Planning Human Resource Planning
Forecasting Human Resource Requirements

Comparing Requirements and Availability Surplus of Workers

Forecasting Human Resource Availability Shortage of Workers

Demand = Supply

No Action

Restricted Hiring, Reduced Hours, Early Retirement, Layoff, Downsizing

Recruitment
Selection
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Factors affecting Manpower Planning

Sales and production forecasts. The effects of technological change on task needs. Variations in the efficiency, productivity, flexibility of labor as a result of training, work study, organizational change, new motivations, etc. Changes in employment practices (e.g. use of subcontractors or agency staffs, hiving-off tasks, buying in, substitution, etc.)

 Variations, which respond to new legislation, e.g. payroll taxes or their abolition, new health and safety requirements Changes in Government policies (investment incentives, regional or trade grants, etc.)