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U n d e r s ta n d a b l e s tat i s t i c s

co n c e p t s a n d br ase
methods br ase
12E

Copyright 2018 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
TWELFTH EDITION

Understandable
Statistics
CONCEPTS AND METHODS

Charles Henry Brase

REGIS UNIVERSITY

Corrinne Pellillo Brase

ARAPAHOE COMMUNITY COLLEGE

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 This book is dedicated to the memory of
a great teacher, mathematician, and friend
Burton W. Jones
Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado

Understandable Statistics: Concepts and © 2018, 2015, 2012 Cengage Learning

Methods, Twelfth Edition
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright herein
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Printed in the United States of America

Print Number: 01 Print Year: 2016
Contents
Preface xv
Table of Prerequisite Material 1

1 Getting Started 2
FOCUS PROBLEM: Where Have All the Fireflies Gone? 3
1.1 What Is Statistics? 4
1.2 Random Samples 13
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design 22
Summary 32
Important Words & Symbols 32
Chapter Review Problems 33
Data Highlights: Group Projects 35
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 36

USING TECHNOLOGY 37

2 Organizing Data 40
FOCUS PROBLEM: Say It with Pictures 41
2.1 Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Related Topics 42
2.2 Bar Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Time-Series Graphs 59
2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 69
Summary 78
Important Words & Symbols 78
Chapter Review Problems 79
Data Highlights: Group Projects 82
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 84

USING TECHNOLOGY 85

3 Averages and Variation 88

FOCUS PROBLEM: Water: Yellowstone River 89
3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 90
3.2 Measures of Variation 102
3.3 Percentiles and Box-and-Whisker Plots 121
Summary 132
Important Words & Symbols 132
Chapter Review Problems 133
Data Highlights: Group Projects 135
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 137

USING TECHNOLOGY 138

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 1-3 139

iii
iv CONTENTS

4 Elementary Probability Theory 142

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Often Do Lie Detectors Lie? 143
4.1 What Is Probability? 144
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 155
4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques 177
Summary 188
Important Words & Symbols 188
Chapter Review Problems 189
Data Highlights: Group Projects 191
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 193

USING TECHNOLOGY 194

5 The Binomial Probability

Distribution and Related Topics 196
FOCUS PROBLEM: Personality Preference Types: Introvert or Extrovert? 197
5.1 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions 198
5.2 Binomial Probabilities 212
5.3 Additional Properties of the Binomial Distribution 229
5.4 The Geometric and Poisson Probability Distributions 242
Summary 260
Important Words & Symbols 260
Chapter Review Problems 261
Data Highlights: Group Projects 264
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 266
USING TECHNOLOGY 268

6 Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions 270

FOCUS PROBLEM: Impulse Buying 271
PART I: Normal Distributions 272
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions 272
6.2 Standard Units and Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution 288
6.3 Areas Under Any Normal Curve 299
PART II: Sampling Distributions and the Normal Approximation to Binomial
Distribution 314
6.4 Sampling Distributions 314
6.5 The Central Limit Theorem 320
6.6 Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution and to p̂ Distribution 332
Summary 343
Important Words & Symbols 344
Chapter Review Problems 344
Data Highlights: Group Projects 347
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 348
USING TECHNOLOGY 350
Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 4-6 354

7 Estimation 358
FOCUS PROBLEM: The Trouble with Wood Ducks 359
PART I: Estimating a Single Mean or Single Proportion 360
7.1 Estimating m When s Is Known 360
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 CONTENTS v

7.2 Estimating m When s Is Unknown 374

7.3 Estimating p in the Binomial Distribution 387
PART II: Estimating the Difference Between Two Means or Two Proportions 400
7.4 Estimating m1  m2 and p1  p2 401
Summary 423
Important Words & Symbols 423
Chapter Review Problems 424
Data Highlights: Group Projects 429
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 430

USING TECHNOLOGY 432

8 Hypothesis Testing 436

FOCUS PROBLEM: Benford’s Law: The Importance of Being Number 1 437
PART I: Testing a Single Mean or Single Proportion 438
8.1 Introduction to Statistical Tests 438
8.2 Testing the Mean m 454
8.3 Testing a Proportion p 470
PART II: Testing a Difference Between Two Means or Two Proportions 481
8.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences (Dependent Samples) 481
8.5 Testing m1  m2 and p1  p2 (Independent Samples) 496
Summary 522
Finding the P-Value Corresponding to a Sample Test Statistic 522
Important Words & Symbols 523
Chapter Review Problems 524
Data Highlights: Group Projects 527
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 528

USING TECHNOLOGY 529

9 Correlation and Regression 532

FOCUS PROBLEM: Changing Populations and Crime Rate 533
PART I: Simple Linear Regression 534
9.1 Scatter Diagrams and Linear Correlation 534
9.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination 552
9.3 Inferences for Correlation and Regression 573
PART II: Multiple Regression 593
9.4 Multiple Regression 594
Summary 610
Important Words & Symbols 610
Chapter Review Problems 611
Data Highlights: Group Projects 614
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 615

USING TECHNOLOGY 616

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 7-9 618

10 Chi-Square and F Distributions 622

FOCUS PROBLEM: Archaeology in Bandelier National Monument 623
PART I: Inferences Using the Chi-Square Distribution 624
Overview of the Chi-Square Distribution 624
10.1 Chi-Square: Tests of Independence and of Homogeneity 625
vi CONTENTS

10.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 640

10.3 Testing and Estimating a Single Variance or Standard Deviation 650
PART II: Inferences Using the F Distribution 663
Overview of the F Distribution 663
10.4 Testing Two Variances 664
10.5 One-Way ANOVA: Comparing Several Sample Means 673
10.6 Introduction to Two-Way ANOVA 689
Summary 701
Important Words & Symbols 701
Chapter Review Problems 702
Data Highlights: Group Projects 705
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 705

USING TECHNOLOGY 707

11 Nonparametric Statistics 710

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Cold? Compared to What? 711
11.1 The Sign Test for Matched Pairs 712
11.2 The Rank-Sum Test 720
11.3 Spearman Rank Correlation 728
11.4 Runs Test for Randomness 739
Summary 748
Important Words & Symbols 748
Chapter Review Problems 748
Data Highlights: Group Projects 750
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 751

Cumulative Review Problems: Chapters 10-11 752

Appendix I: Additional Topics A1

Part I: Bayes’s Theorem A1
Part II: The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution A5

Appendix II: Tables A9

Table 1: Random Numbers A9
Table 2: Binomial Coefficients Cn,r A10
Table 3: Binomial Probability Distribution Cn,r prqnr A11
Table 4: Poisson Probability Distribution A16
Table 5: Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution A22
Table 6: Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution A24
Table 7: The x2 Distribution A25
Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A26
Table 9: Critical Values for Spearman Rank Correlation, rs A36
Table 10: Critical Values for Number of Runs R
(Level of Significance a  0.05) A37

Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A39

Answers to Selected Even-Numbered Problems A73
Index I1
Critical Thinking
Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the limitations of
statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes students aware of method
appropriateness, assumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.

CRITICAL
 Critical Thinking
THINKING Unusual Values
Critical thinking is an important
Chebyshev’s theorem tells us that no matter what the data distribution looks like, skill for students to develop in
at least 75% of the data will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean. As order to avoid reaching misleading
we will see in Chapter 6, when the distribution is mound-shaped and symmetric,
conclusions. The Critical Thinking
about 95% of the data are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. Data values
beyond 2 standard deviations from the mean are less common than those closer
feature provides additional clari-
to the mean. fication on specific concepts as a
In fact, one indicator that a data value might be an outlier is that it is more safeguard against incorrect evalua-
than 2.5 standard deviations from the mean (Source: Statistics, by G. Upton and tion of information.
I. Cook, Oxford University Press).

UNUSUAL VALUES
For a binomial distribution, it is unusual for the number of successes r to be
higher than m 1 2.5s or lower than m 2.5s.

We can use this indicator to determine whether a specified number of successes

out of n trials in a binomial experiment are unusual.
For instance, consider a binomial experiment with 20 trials for which probability
of success on a single trial is p 5 0.70. The expected number of successes is m 5 14,
with a standard deviation of s < 2. A number of successes above 19 or below 9
would be considered unusual. However, such numbers of successes are possible.

Interpretation  SOLUTION: Since we want to know the number of standard deviations from the mean,
we want to convert 6.9 to standard z units.
Increasingly, calculators and computers are used
to generate the numeric results of a statistical pro- x m 6.9 8
cess. However, the student still needs to correctly z5 5 5 2.20
s 0.5
interpret those results in the context of a particu-
lar application. The Interpretation feature calls Interpretation The amount of cheese on the selected pizza is only 2.20 standard
attention to this important step. Interpretation is deviations below the mean. The fact that z is negative indicates that the amount of
stressed in examples, in guided exercises, and in cheese is 2.20 standard deviations below the mean. The parlor will not lose its fran-
the problem sets. chise based on this sample.

6. Interpretation A campus performance series features plays, music groups,  Critical Thinking and Interpretation
dance troops, and stand-up comedy. The committee responsible for selecting
the performance groups include three students chosen at random from a pool
Exercises
of volunteers. This year the 30 volunteers came from a variety of majors. In every section and chapter problem set, Critical Thinking
However, the three students for the committee were all music majors. Does
this fact indicate there was bias in the selection process and that the selection problems provide students with the opportunity to test their
process was not random? Explain. understanding of the application of statistical methods and
7. Critical Thinking Greg took a random sample of size 100 from the popula- their interpretation of their results. Interpretation problems
tion of current season ticket holders to State College men’s basketball games. ask students to apply statistical results to the particular
Then he took a random sample of size 100 from the population of current application.
season ticket holders to State College women’s basketball games.
(a)
venience, random) did Greg use to sample from the population of current
season ticket holders to all State College basketball games played by
either men or women?
(b) Is it appropriate to pool the samples and claim to have a random sample of
size 200 from the population of current season ticket holders to all State
College home basketball games played by either men or women? Explain. vii
 viii Chapter 1 GETTING STARTED

Statistical Literacy
No language, including statistics, can be spoken without learning the vocabulary. Understandable
Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms with deliberate care.

 What Does (concept, method,

What Does the Level of Measurement Tell Us? statistical result) Tell Us?
The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appropriate for the This feature gives a brief summary of the informa-
data. This is important because different statistical processes require various kinds of tion we obtain from the named concept, method, or
arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is count the number of data that meet statistical result.
specified criteria. In such cases nominal (and higher) data levels are all appropriate. In
other cases we need to order the data, so nominal data would not be suitable. Many
other statistical processes require division, so data need to be at the ratio level. Just
keep the nature of the data in mind before beginning statistical computations.

Important Features of a
(concept, method, or result)  Important Features of a Simple Random Sample
For a simple random sample
In statistics we use many different types of graphs,

n from the population has an equal chance
samples, data, and analytical methods. The features
of being selected.
of each such tool help us select the most appropriate


No researcher bias occurs in the items selected for the sample.
ones to use and help us interpret the information we


receive from applications of the tools.
For instance, from a population of 10 cats and 10 dogs, a random sample
of size 6 could consist of all cats.

 Statistical Literacy Problems

SECTION 6.1 PROBLEMS 1. Statistical Literacy Which, if any, of the curves in Figure 6-10 look(s) like a
normal curve? If a curve is not a normal curve, tell why.
In every section and chapter problem set,
2. Statistical Literacy m,
m 1 s, and s. Statistical Literacy problems test student under-
FIGURE 6-10 standing of terminology, statistical methods, and
the appropriate conditions for use of the differ-
ent processes.
FIGURE 6-11

Definition Boxes 
Box-and-Whisker Plots
Whenever important terms are introduced in
The quartiles together with the low and high data values give us a very useful
text, blue definition boxes appear within the
number summary of the data and their spread.
discussions. These boxes make it easy to reference
or review terms as they are used further.
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY
Lowest value, Q1, median, Q3, highest value

box-and-whisker plot. Box-and-whisker plots provide another useful technique

viii from exploratory data analysis (EDA) for describing data.
 IMPORTANT WORDS & SYMBOLS  Important Words & Symbols
SECTION 4.1 Multiplication rules of probability (for The Important Words & Symbols within the
Probability of an event A, P(A) 144 independent and dependent events) 156
Intuition 144 More than two independent events 161 Chapter Review feature at the end of each
Relative frequency 144 Probability of A or B 161 chapter summarizes the terms introduced in the
Equally likely outcomes 144 Event A and B 161
Law of large numbers 146 Event A or B 161 Definition Boxes for student review at a glance.
Mutually exclusive events 163
Statistical experiment 146
Addition rules (for mutually exclusive and general
Page numbers for first occurrence of term are
Event 146
Simple event 146 events) 163 given for easy reference.
Sample space 146 More than two mutually exclusive events 165
Complement of event Ac 148 Basic probability rules 168

SECTION 4.2 SECTION 4.3

Independent events 156 Multiplication rule of counting 177
Dependent events 156 Tree diagram 178
Probability of A and B 156 Factorial notation 181
Event A | B 156 Permutations rule 181
Conditional probability 156 Combinations rule 183
P1A | B2 156

Linking Concepts:
Writing Projects  LINKING CONCEPTS: Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then
WRITING PROJECTS write a brief but complete essay in which you summarize the main points. Please
Much of statistical literacy is the ability include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
1. What does it mean to say that we are going to use a sample to draw an inference
to communicate concepts effectively. The about a population? Why is a random sample so important for this process? If
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects feature we wanted a random sample of students in the cafeteria, why couldn’t we just
at the end of each chapter tests both choose the students who order Diet Pepsi with their lunch? Comment on the
statement, “A random sample is like a miniature population, whereas samples
statistical literacy and critical thinking by that are not random are likely to be biased.” Why would the students who order
asking the student to express their under- Diet Pepsi with lunch not be a random sample of students in the cafeteria?
standing in words. 2. In your own words, explain the differences among the following sampling
-
ter sample, multistage sample, and convenience sample. Describe situations in
which each type might be useful.

5. Basic Computation: Central Limit Theorem Suppose x has a distribution  Basic Computation
with a mean of 8 and a standard deviation of 16. Random samples of size Problems
n 5 64 are drawn. These problems focus student
(a) Describe the x distribution and compute the mean and standard deviation attention on relevant formulas,
of the distribution. requirements, and computational pro-
(b) Find the z value corresponding to x 5 9. cedures. After practicing these skills,
(c) Find P1x 7 92. students are more confident as they
(d) Interpretation Would it be unusual for a random sample of size 64 from approach real-world applications.
the x distribution to have a sample mean greater than 9? Explain.

30. Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percent-
ages, ratios, compounded growth rates, or other rates of change, the geomet-
ric mean is a useful measure of central tendency. For n data values,
Expand Your Knowledge Problems  n
Geometric mean 5 1product of the n data values, assuming all data
values are positive
Expand Your Knowledge problems present
optional enrichment topics that go beyond the average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual
material introduced in a section. Vocabulary -
and concepts needed to solve the problems are metric mean of 1.10, 1.12, 1.148, 1.038, and 1.16. Find the average growth
included at point-of-use, expanding students’ factor of this investment.
statistical literacy.

ix
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