ConstituenWinning CaParty Vote Share (%)

Chandni C Patni, Nita Bharatiya J 67.74

North East Goswami, Bharatiya J 74.65
New Delhi Durga PrasBharatiya J 61.78
South DelhBadri NaraiBharatiya J 69.28
East Delhi Jadunandan Bharatiya J 68.75
North WestRam RakshBharatiya J 63.93
West DelhiSant Prasa Bharatiya J 70.69
ConstituenWinning CaParty Vote Share (%)
Chandni C Praveen KhBJP 53.77
North-EastManoj TiwaBJP 53.3
East Delhi Harsh MalhBJP 52.82
New Delhi Bansuri SwBJP 53.78
North-WestYogender CBJP 58.62
West DelhiKamaljeet BJP 55.59
South DelhRamvir SinBJP 53.71
Comparative Analytical Brief: Shifts in Voter Behaviour (Delhi Lok Sabha 2019 vs 2024)

1. Overall Decline in BJP Vote Share

Across all seven constituencies, the BJP’s vote share in 2024 is significantly lower compared to 2019.
• 2019 average vote share ≈ 68%
• 2024 average vote share ≈ 54%
A drop of ~14 percentage points indicates reduced voter consolidation.

2. Major Losses in Previously Strong Seats

Largest declines:
• North East Delhi (−21.35%)
• West Delhi (−15.10%)
• Chandni Chowk (−13.97%)
These had been BJP strongholds with heavy erosion in 2024.

3. Change in Candidate Profiles

Many new faces were introduced in 2024, which may have weakened legacy voter loyalty.

4. Reduced Urban Middle-Class Consolidation

Vote-share drops in New Delhi, Chandni Chowk, and West Delhi indicate more fragmented middle-class voting,
driven by issues such as inflation, pollution, and civic concerns.

5. Impact of Opposition Unity & Local Factors

The decline suggests stronger opposition vote consolidation and increased issue-based voting.

6. North-West Delhi: Still Relatively Strong

This constituency showed the smallest decline (−5.31%), indicating a more stable BJP base.

Summary:
Voters in 2024 displayed reduced enthusiasm and greater issue-based decision-making, weakening the dominant mandate se
dle-class voting,

ning the dominant mandate seen in 2019.

ConstituenShare2019Share2024
Chandni C 67.74 53.77
North East 74.65 53.3 Vote Share Comparison (2019 vs 2024)
New Delhi 61.78 53.78
80 80
South Delh 69.28 53.71
70 70
East Delhi 68.75 52.82
North West 63.93 58.62 60 60
West Delhi 70.69 55.59 50 50

Vote Share (%)

40 40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0 Chandni North New Delhi South East Delhi North West
ChandniChowk
North East
East Delhi
New Delhi South
Delhi East Delhi North
West West
Delhi
Delhi
Chowk Delhi Delhi WestDelhi
Delhi
on (2019 vs 2024)

Share2019
Share2024

st Delhi North West

Delhi North
West West
Delhi
Delhi
WestDelhi
Delhi
ConstituenTotal_TurnMale_2019Female_20Total_TurnMale_2024Female_2024
Chandni C 62.78 63.73 61.39 58.69 59.39 57.57
North East 63.86 64.44 62.71 63.04 63.5 62.12
East Delhi 61.7 61.46 61.79 59.6 59.29 59.71
New Delhi 56.91 56.5 57.22 55.53 55.36 55.32
North West 58.97 59.4 58.35 58.01 58.4 57.14
West Delhi 60.82 60.93 60.2 58.81 59.06 57.99
South Delh 58.75 58.47 58.88 56.52 56.26 56.58
Comparative Analytical Brief – Voter Behaviour (2019 vs 2024)

1. Overall Voter Turnout:

• Most constituencies show a decline in total turnout from 2019 to 2024.
• Largest drop: Chandni Chowk & East Delhi.
• North East Delhi remains relatively stable.

2. Male Turnout Trends:

• Male turnout declined in almost every constituency, indicating reduced enthusiasm.
• Sharpest male turnout fall: Chandni Chowk, New Delhi, South Delhi.

3. Female Turnout Trends:

• Female turnout also declined but generally by smaller margins.
• Female participation showed relatively greater stability compared to males.

4. Gender Behaviour Shift:

• The male–female turnout gap narrowed in several constituencies by 2024.
• This suggests women voters are a stabilizing force and increasingly decisive.

5. Interpretation:
• Indicates voter fatigue, issue-based voting, and localized mobilization differences.
• Campaign outreach may need to re-engage male voters while sustaining female turnout.
ConstituenMale2019 Female201Male2024 Female202Total2019 Total2024
Chandni C 63.73 61.39 59.39 57.57 62.78 58.69
North East 64.44 62.71 63.5 62.12 63.86 63.04 Male &
East Delhi 61.46 61.79 59.29 59.71 61.7 59.6
66 66
New Delhi 56.5 57.22 55.36 55.32 56.91 55.53
64 64
North West 59.4 58.35 58.4 57.14 58.97 58.01
West Delhi 60.93 60.2 59.06 57.99 60.82 58.81 62 62
South Delh 58.47 58.88 56.26 56.58 58.75 56.52 60 60

Turnout (%)
58 58
56 56
54 54
52 52
50 50
Chandni
Chandni
North East
North
Eas
ChowkChowk
Delhi East
Delhi

Total Tur
To
66 66
64 64
62 62
60 60

Turnout (%)
58 58
56
56
54
54
52
52
50
50 Chandni North E
ChandniChowk
North East
DelhiE
Chowk Delhi
 Male & Female Turnout (2019 vs
& 2024)
66 66
64 64
62 62
Male2019
60 60
Female2019
Turnout (%)

58 58 Male2024
56 56 Female2024
54 54
52 52
50 50
Chandni
Chandni
North East
North
East Delhi
EastNew Delhi
New North
North West
West South
South
ChowkChowk
Delhi East Delhi Delhi West
West Delhi
Delhi Delhi
Delhi
Delhi Delhi
Delhi

Total Turnout
Total Turnout
Comparison
(2019 vs
(2019
2024)
vs 2024)
66 66
64 64
62 62
60 60
Total2019
Turnout (%)

58 58 Total2024
56
56
54
54
52
52
50
50 Chandni North East East Delhi New Delhi North West South
ChandniChowk
North East
DelhiEast Delhi New Delhi North
West WestDelhi
Delhi South
Delhi
Chowk Delhi West Delhi
Delhi Delhi
ConstituenMargin % (Margin % (2024)
Chandni C 23.3 9.2
East Delhi 31.1 7.4
New Delhi 27.9 9.2
North East 25.1 8.9
North West 39.5 19.6
South Delh 30.2 9.6
West Delhi 40.1 13.1
Comparative Analytical Brief – Winning Margin Shift (2019 → 2024)

1. Major Decline in Winning Margins:

• All seven constituencies witnessed a sharp fall in winning margins.
• Average margin declined from ~31.0% (2019) to ~11.0% (2024).
• This indicates reduced dominance of the ruling party and higher competition.

2. Strongest Erosion:
• West Delhi and North West Delhi, which had very high margins in 2019 (40.1% and 39.5%),
dropped drastically to 13.1% and 19.6% respectively.
• Represents weakening voter consolidation.

3. Constituencies With Most Stability:

• New Delhi and Chandni Chowk maintained relatively moderate margins in both years,
though both dropped significantly (~27–23% to ~9%).

4. Voter Behaviour Interpretation:

• Voters in 2024 showcased higher electoral scrutiny and issue-based choices.
• Opposition consolidation increased vote share competitiveness.
• Anti-incumbency sentiment moderately increased across urban pockets.
• Traditional strongholds saw the largest declines, revealing shifting urban political preferences.

5. Gender & Turnout Influence:

• Reduced voter turnout in 2024 (as seen earlier) directly correlates with lower winning margins.
• Both male and female turnout decline contributed to shrinking leads.
• Female voter consistency still prevented even steeper margin collapses in several seats.

Conclusion:
Margins dramatically compressed in 2024 across Delhi, signaling a more competitive landscape and
greater voter willingness to diversify political choices. The urban electorate showed a shift from
landslide victories to closer contests, reflecting new political dynamics.
ConstituenMargin % (Margin % (2024)
Chandni C 23.3 9.2
East Delhi 31.1 7.4 Winning Margin Comparison (2019 vs 2024
New Delhi 27.9 9.2
45
North East 25.1 8.9
40
North West 39.5 19.6
35
South Delh 30.2 9.6
30
West Delhi 40.1 13.1 25 Marg
Marg
20
15
10
5
0
Chandni East Delhi New Delhi North East North South West
Chowk Delhi West Delhi Delhi
Delhi
ison (2019 vs 2024)

Margin % (2019)
Margin % (2024)

South West
Delhi Delhi