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Solution

The document outlines a step-by-step solution for calculating the probabilities of drawing two red balls from two boxes and determining the probability that the third ball drawn is blue given that the first two were red. It employs Bayes' theorem to find the posterior probabilities of the boxes after observing the two reds and combines these with the conditional probabilities of drawing a blue ball from each box. The final result indicates the probability of the third ball being blue after drawing two reds.

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2 views3 pages

Solution

The document outlines a step-by-step solution for calculating the probabilities of drawing two red balls from two boxes and determining the probability that the third ball drawn is blue given that the first two were red. It employs Bayes' theorem to find the posterior probabilities of the boxes after observing the two reds and combines these with the conditional probabilities of drawing a blue ball from each box. The final result indicates the probability of the third ball being blue after drawing two reds.

Uploaded by

khushank23810
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Solution — step by step (with careful arithmetic)

Step 1 — likelihoods of drawing two reds from each box

• From Box A (3 red, 2 blue, total 5):


3 2
𝑃(two reds ∣ 𝐴) = × .
5 4

Compute digit by digit:


3 2 3×2 6 3
× = = = .
5 4 5 × 4 20 10

• From Box B (2 red, 4 blue, total 6):


2 1
𝑃(two reds ∣ 𝐵) = × .
6 5

Compute:
2 1 2×1 2 1
× = = = .
6 5 6 × 5 30 15

Step 2 — total probability of observing two reds


1 1
Priors: 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 2.

So
1 3 1 1
𝑃(two reds) = ⋅ + ⋅ .
2 10 2 15

Compute each term with a common denominator (use 60):


1 3 3 9
• ⋅ = 20 = 60.
2 10
1 1 1 2
• ⋅ = 30 = 60.
2 15

Add:
9 2 11
𝑃(two reds) = + = .
60 60 60

Step 3 — use Bayes to get 𝑷(𝑨 ∣ two reds)


1 3
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(two reds ∣ 𝐴) 2 ⋅ 10
𝑃(𝐴 ∣ two reds) = = .
𝑃(two reds) 11
60
Compute numerator:
1 3 3
⋅ = .
2 10 20

11
Divide by :
60

3/20 3 60 3 × 60
= × = .
11/60 20 11 20 × 11

Simplify 60/20 = 3:
3×3 9
= = .
11 11

9
So (a) 𝑃(Box A ∣ two reds) = 11 .

9 2
(Then 𝑃(Box B ∣ two reds) = 1 − 11 = 11.)

Step 4 — probability the third ball (from the same box) is blue, given two reds

We condition on which box it is (use total probability with the posterior weights).

• If it was Box A: after removing 2 reds from the original (3R,2B), remaining are 1 red and 2
blue (total 3).
2
So 𝑃(blue ∣ 𝐴,two reds) = 3.

• If it was Box B: after removing 2 reds from (2R,4B), remaining are 0 red and 4 blue (total 4).
So 𝑃(blue ∣ 𝐵,two reds) = 1.

Now combine using posteriors:


2
𝑃(blue ∣ two reds) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∣ two reds) ⋅ + 𝑃(𝐵 ∣ two reds) ⋅ 1.
3

Plug numbers:
9 2 2
= ⋅ + ⋅ 1.
11 3 11

Compute first term:


9 2 9×2 18 6
⋅ = = = (since 18 ÷ 3 = 6 and 33 ÷ 3 = 11).
11 3 11 × 3 33 11

2
Now add :
11
6 2 8
+ = .
11 11 11

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