Week Unit Forecast M1

1 23
2 24 Char
40
3 32 35
4 26 30

5 31 25

6 28 20

15
7 32 10
8 35 5

9 26 0
1 2 3 4 5

10 24
 Chart Title

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Karl's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of servic
that he can schedule service personnel. The forecast for the week of July 3 was 24 calls. The manag
exponential smoothing with α=0.20. a) Forecast the number of calls for the week of August 7, whic
week.
b) Also please calculate manager uses exponential smoothing with α=0.10, α=0.80, α=0.50
c) Please Calculate Mean Absolute Deviation Error

Week Calls Forecast How does this smoothing parameter (α) value fit w
3-Jul 24 values of α and see how the forecast changes.
10-Jul 32
17-Jul 36
24-Jul 23 Forecast by using exponential smoothing
31-Jul 25
7-Aug MAD
eekly forecasts of service calls so
was 24 calls. The manager uses
week of August 7, which is next

α=0.80, α=0.50

parameter (α) value fit with the demand pattern seen in the data? Try out other
e forecast changes.

Ft+1 = a Dt + (1 – a) Ft
The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospitla has
increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is
seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The
data for the past five years are shown.
The hospital administration is considering the following forecasting methods.
Begin error measurement in year 3.:

i. Exponential smoothing with α=0.6 and an initial forecast of 45.

ii. Exponential smoothing with α=0.9 and an initial forecast of 45.
iii. Two-year moving average.
iv. Two-year weighted moving average, using weights of 0.6 and 0.4, with the
most recent data given more weight.
Define all numbers for forecast error, including bias and spread.
 as
on is Exp. Absolute
Smoothing Absolute Percentage
r 6. The Year Demand α=.6 Error Error Error

ods.
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56
5 58
the

Exp. Absolute
Smoothing Absolute Percentage
Year Demand α=.9 Error Error Error
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56
5 58

2-year Absolute
Moving Absolute Percentage
Year Demand Average Error Error Error
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56
5 58

Absolute
Absolute Percentage
Year Demand 2-year WMA Error Error Error
1 45
2 50
3 52
4 56
5 58
Squared
Error

Exp. Exp. 2-year

Smoothing Smoothing Moving
α=.6 α=.9 Average 2-year WMA
MAD
MAPD
MSE

Squared
Error

Squared
Error

Squared
Error