SIMULATION 1199

:40(Fo). 0590 (F7), 9566 (D), 7615 (D), 8508 (D), 6970 (D), 5799 (D), 6343 (D), 4165
zs4(F5). We stop because 8 houses have been selecte. The eight houses selected belong
number6. 3, 6, 3. 3, 4, 2
and 2
dd
AMPLE13.7-5 respectively.
keeps stock of a popular brand of
thelor:: cake. Daily demand based on past experience
Daily demand 15 25
Probability 0.01 0.15
35 45 50
0.20 0.50
eider the following sequence of random 0.12 0.02
48, 78, 09, 51, 56, 77, numbers:
Ilsing the sequence, simmulate the 15. 14, 68 and 09.
demand for the next 10 days.
Eind the stock situation if the owner of the bakery decides to make 35
stimatethe daily average demand for
the cakes on the basis of the cakes every day
UN.TU. Hyderabad MBA Nov, 2012; PT:U. B. Tech. simulated data.
(Mech.) No., 2012; Dec., 2011;
B.E., 2001: Nellore MBA. 2001: PU. BBA, 2001]
ution
a The simulated demand for the cakes for the next 10 days can be obtained from the table
TABLE 13.2
Allocation of random numbers to demand of cakes
Demand Probability Cumulative Random number Random numbers fitted
probability interval
0.01 0.01 00
0.15 0.16 01 - 15 09(3), 1S(7), 14(8), 09(10)
25 0.20 0.36 16- 35
0.50 0.86 36 - 85 48(1), 78(2), 51(4), 56(5).
45
77(6), 68(9)
0.12 0.98 86-97
50 0.02 1.00 98 - 99
In order to simulate the demand, the number 00 is assigned to zero demand, numbers 01--15
35igned to demand of 15 cakes, 16-35 are assigned to demand of 25 cakes and so on. The
FD 10 random numbers are fitted in the last column corresponding to the ranges against the
and values. These random numbers give the demand for cakes for next 10 days. Serial no. of
Tandom numbers are shown in the parentheses.
. Number of cakes demanded in the next 10 days are :
, 35, 1s, 35, 35, 35, 15. 15, 35 and 15 respectively.
ien in Ihe stock situation for various days if the decision is made to make 35 cakes evervday
the table
below: TABLE 13.3
Day Demand No. of cakes made Stock
35 35
35 35
15 35 20
35 35 20
35 35 20
35 20
35
35 40
15
15
35 60
9 35 60
3
10 35 80
1200 OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Average daily demand 35 35 1535 35 35 Ise

10
270
27 cakes.

EXAMPLE 13.7-6
Depending upon th
manufac tures around 200 mopeds.
4compa
materials and other conditions, the daily as given below
mopcds, whose probabilin distribution
is
199
varyiny
produetion has bcen
200 201
avalabtt,
from 196 moped
Produc tion dan 106 197 198
0. 20 (), 15
202 203
Prohab1litn 005 0 09 012 0 14
The finishcd mopeds are transported in a specially desiged three-storeyed lorr,
following 15 random numbers 82, 8
accommodate onh 200 mopcd Using the process to fnd out
J8, 45. 04. 23 S0 "31 54 and l0),. simulate the
mopvds waiting in the fuctory2
(u what will be thc average number of
spaces in the lorry?
(i) what will be the mumber of emph IRU MBA June, 2011: PTU BI
Solution
as in the table below:
The random numbers are established
TABLE 13.4

Production dav Probability Cumulative probability Random number t

0.05 0.05 00 -(4
196
197 0.09 0.14 05- 13
198 0.12 0.26 14-23
199 0.14 0.40 26 - 39
200 0.20 0.60 40 - s9
201 0.15 0.75 60 - 74
202 0.11 0.86 75 -8$
203 0.08 0.94 86 - 93
204 0.06 1.00 94 99

Based on the 15 random numbers given, we simulate the production per day in the tat
below.
TABLE 3.5

Day no. Random number Production per day No. of mopeds Emptv spaccs
the lorn
waiting
82 202
89 203 5
3 202
4 24 198
53 200
6 61 201
7 18 198 4
45 200 4
9 04 196
23 |98
00
12 77
202
13 27 199
14 54 200
197
 SIMULATION 1201
Average number of
mopeds waiting in the factory
|2 +5 +
7+5+5 + 6 + 4 + 4 + 2 +|+ 1]=2.8.
number of empty
spaces in the lorry 4 =0.27.
15
AMPLE13.7-7 (Queuing Problem)
fuopersons Xand}Y work on a two-station assembly tine. The distributions of activity times
r slatlonsare

TABLE 13.6
Time in seconds
Time frequency for X Time frequency for Y
10
20 7 3
30 10
40 15
50 35 12
60 18 9
70 7
80 3 3

la Simulate operation of the line for eight items.

have
(b) Assuming Ymust wait until X completes the first item before starting work, will hefor Y.
t 1o process any of the other seven items ? What is the average
waiting time of items
ethe following random numbers:
For X 83, 70, 02, 12, 59, 46, 54 and 03.
For Y 51, 99, 84, 81, 15, 36, 12 and 54.
(c) Determine the inventory of items between the two stations.
ld) What is the average production rate? (Mech.) June, 2012]
[R.T.M. Nagpur U. B. Tech. June, 2006; Kuru. U. B.E.
bolution
distribution for X. Eight random numbers
la) Table below shows the cumulative frequency
X are also fitted. The serial numbers of random numbers are shown in the
F1 1or person
theses. TABLE 13.7

Cumulative Range Random numbers fitted

Time in Time frequency
seconds for X frequency
10 4 00 - 03 02(3), 03(8)
4
20 11 04 - 10
7
1|- 20 12(4)
10 21
36 21 - 35
15
71 36- 70 70(2), 59(5), 46(6), 54(7)
35
60 89 71 -88 83(1)
18
97 89- 96
8
100 97 - 99
3
50 and 10 seconds respectively.
Thus the eight 50. I0, 30, 50, 50,
times for X are 60, his cumulative distribution below
Y are derived from
tewisc. the eight times for
1202 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
TARLE 3.8
(umnlative freqwncy
Timc tn Time frequen Runye
10
for )
4 00-03
Pundomfit ed unde
04(9
10-21
40 19 3% 22-37
S0 62 38-61
60 40 62-79
70 7 47 80-93
94-99 100
92
Thus the cight times for Y are 50, 80, 70, 70, 30, 40, 30 and 50 seconds res
that the cumulative frequency has been multiplied by 2 to make it 100,
(hì The above times for persons Xand Yare used to calculate the respest
waiting timc
c; ifc
TABLE 13.9
Item no Person X Person Y Waiting lime on
Time in Time out Time in Time out the part of Y Wattiny time
the purt9 e
( 60 60 110 6
60 |10 190
I10 120 |90 260
120 150 260 330
150 200 330 360
200 250 360 400
250 300 400 430
300 310 430 480
Thus person Y will not have to wait 120
for the remaining seven items.
Average waiting time of items = 0+0+70+ 110 + 130 +110 + 100 - 120 640
(c) In all there are 6
(d) Total time taken to
items waiting between the two stations.
process 8 items 480 secs 8
.. Average production rate minutes.
item/minute.
EXAMPLE 13.7-8 (Queuing
Problem)for
Adentist
schedules all her patients
more or less than 30 minutes 30 minutes
Summary shows the various depending on the fvpe of apnointments.
dental work to
Some of the palie
be done. Ihe j
the work. categories of work, their probabilities and the time
needed
TABLE 13.10
Category
Filling Time required (minutes)
Probability of categon
45
Crown ).40
Cleaning 60
0.15
Extraction 0.15
Checkup 45
0.10
0.20
 SIMULATION 1203
Simulate the dentist s clinic for four hours and determine the average waiting time for the
as the idleness of the doctor. Assume that all the patients show up at the clinic at
theirscheduled arrival times,
starting at8 A.M. Use the following random numbers for
theabove problem: 40, 82, 1l, 34, 25, 66, 17 and 79. |PTU. B. Tech. April, 2012:
K.1.M. Nagpur U. B.E. (Mech.) 201: L.T., 2009; June, 200>]
coution
The time laken by the dentist to treat the eight patients arriving in four hours at the clinic
kulatedin the table below.
TABLE 13.11
Time
(ategor Probability Cumulative Random no. Random no.
(minutes) fitted
45
probability interval
Filling 0.40 0.40 00-39 1I(3), 34(4).
25(5), 17(7)
Crown 60 0.15 0.55 40-54 40(1)
Cleaning 15 0.15 0.70 55-69 66(6)
Extraction 4 0.10 0.80 70-79 79(8)
Checkup 15 0.20 1.00 80-99 82(2)
Thus the times taken by the dentist to treat the eight patients are 60, 15, 45, 45, 45, 15, 45
45 minutes respectively.
Let us simulate the dentist's clinic (for eight patients) starting at 8 A.M.
TABLE 13.12
Arrival Dentist's treatment Waiting time on the ldle time for the
Patient
nO. time Starts Ends part of the patient dentist
8.00 8.00 9.00
8.30 9.00 9.15 30
9.00 9.15 10.00 15
9.30 10.00 10.45 30
10.00 10.45 11.30 45
10.30 11.30 11.45 60
|1.00 11.45 12.30 45
I1.30 12.30 13.15 60

. Average waiting time for the patients = [30 + 15+ 30 + 45 +60 + 45 + 601
285
= 35.625 minutes.
8
Average idleness of the dentist = Nil.

XAMPLE 13.7-9
Company manutactres 30 items per day. The sale of these items depends upon
demand
hich has the following distribution:
Sales (units) Probability
0.10
27
0./5
28
0.20
29
0.35
30
0.15
31
0.05
32
1204 * OPERATIONS RESEARCH

The production cost and sale prce of eoch unnt are An

5
product is to be disposed of at a loss of 1S pt nt Ther s apenaln o/
demand is not met Using the following random mumbers estmate total protnloss for th tott solf thed
for the neu 10 dans 10. 99, 65 99 9s. 01 9, I1, 16. 20
tIs
If the conpam decides to produce 29 items per day, what the ahantage r Compay
to the compam /PTU B Tech iPrnd) Nov. 2012. Rohtak2012.
MDU.
April, RL
BE. (Mech.
MBAdisDe,
adantuge
2011:
Solution
)Dec.. 20061
First of all, random numbers 00-99 are allocated in proportion to the probabilities a
with the sale of the items as given below associated
TABLE 3.13

Sales (units) Probability Cumularive probabiliy Random mumber interval

27 0.10 0.10 00-09
2S 0.15 0.25 10-24
29 0.20 0,45 25-44
0.35 0.80 45-79
31 0.15 0.95 80-94
32 0.05 1.00 95-99
Let us now simulate the demand for next 10 days using the given numbers in order to
estimate the total profivloss for the company. Since the production cost of cach item is 40 and
sale price is 50, therefore the profit per unit of the sold item will be 10. There is a loes
15 per unit associated with each unsold unit and a penalty of? 5 per unit if the demand is mor
met. Accordingly, the profitloss for next ten days are calculated in column (iv) of the table below
if the company manufactures 30 items per day.
TABLE 13.14

(iü) (ii) (iv)

Day Random Estimated Profir loss per day when Profit/loss per day when
number sale Production=30 items per day Production =29 items per dan
10 28 28 x -2 x 15 =250 28 x 10-1 x15 265
32 30 1 0 2 = 290 29 x 10-3 x $= 278
3 65 30 30 10 = 300 29 x 10-1 x5= 283|
4 90 32 30 10-2 x5 =290 29 x 10-3 x5= 273
5 95 32 30 x 10-2 x5= 290 29 x 10-3 x5=273
6 01 27 27 x 10-3 x 15 =225 27 x 10-2 x15=240
7 30 30 x 10 = 300 29 x10-1 x5 =28$
8 28 28 x 10-2 x 15 = 250 28 x 10-1 ×15- 26:
9 16 28 28 x 10-2 x15 = 250 28 x 10-1 x15 6
20 28 28 x 10-2 ×15 = 250 0-1 x$268
28 x
Total profit 2.695 72.60
The total profit for next 10 days will be?695 f the
company
day. In case, the company decides to produce 29 items per dav, then manufactures 30 1teih
for next 10 days is calculated in column (v) of tthe above able. the profit of the com
It is evident from this tabik
there is no additional profit or loss if the production is
profit remains unchanged i.e.. 2.695. reduced to 29 items per day Sinke
 SIMULATION 1205

UPLE13.7-10 (Investment and Budgeting Problem)

mestmen Corporation wants to study the investment projects based on three factors:
mandin units, price per unit minus cost per unit, and the investment required. These
wt to be independent of each other: In analyzing a new consumer
produe,
the
estimates following probability distributions:
TABLE 13.15
Probability (Price-Cost) Investment Probability
{nsal Probability
imund per unit X) required

0.05 3.00 0.10 27,50,000 0.25

0.10 5.00 0.20 30,00,000 0.50
0.20 7.00 0.40 35,00,000 0.25
0.30 9.00 0.20

5000 0.20 10.00 0.10

o00 0.10

i5 000 0.05

Using simulation process, repeat the trial 10 times. Compute the return on imvestment
iach trial, taking these factors into account. Approximately, what is the highest likely
Use the following random numbers for annual demand, (price-cost) and the investment

28, 57, 60, 17, 64, 20, 27, 58, 61. 30: 19, 07, 90, 02, 57.
28, 29, 83, 58, 41; 18, 67, 16, 71, 43, 68, 47, 24, 19, 97.
Mltion
associated
Fist of all, random numbers 00-99 are assigned in proportion to the probabilities
below :
ie annual demand, (price-cost) and investment as given
TABLE 13. 16

Prob. Cum. Prob. Cum.

tryglProb. Cum.
prob.
R. No.
interval
(Price
Cost) prob.
R. No.
interval
Invest.
(000 's) prob.
R. No.
interval
per umit
0.05 0.10 0.10 00-09 2.750 0.25 0.25 00-24
0.05 00-04 3.00
0.20 0.30 10-29 3,000 0.50 0.75 25-74
0.10 0.15 05-14 5.00
).20 0,40 0.70 30-69 3,500 0.25 1.00 75-99
0.35 15-34 7.00
).30 0.20 0.90 70-89
0.65 35-64 9.00
0.10 1.00 90-99
0.85 65-84 10.00
0.10 0.95 85-94

)05 1.00 95-99

e yearly return can be determined by the formula:

(Price Cost) × Number of units demanded

x100.
Return (R) = Investment
given below:
simulation are shown in the table
rsults of the
1206 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
TABLE I3./

Trals Ranom Smuiated Rankm Simulatcd Random Smulated

namer
for
demand
roht IVesment

(000)
Siemuni
mlatead tcPrioufrtm
S.00 2.750

3.00 3,000
40 400
10.00 2,750
14,5s
3.00 3,000
1 3.,50
7.00 3,000
64

$.00 3,000
`83
29 5,00 47 3,000
35
9.00 24 2.750
40 13.J0
7.00 19 2.750
61 0 10.18
41 7.00 97 3,500 00
10 30
Above table shows that the highest likely return is 14.55% whicth is corresponding to hg
annual demand of 40,000 units resulting a profit of 10 per unit and the required invest
be 27.S0,000.
EXAMPLE 13.7-11
not it roined
The occurrence of rain in a cin on a dan is dependet upon whether or
is given by:
the previous da: Ifit rained on the previous day. the rain distribution
Event Probability"
No rain 0.50
Icm rain 0.25
2 cm rain 0.15
3 cm rain 0.05
4 cm rain 0.03
5 cm rain 0.02
If it did not rain the previous day: the rain distribution is given by:
Event Probabilit
No rain 0.75
Icm ran 0.15
2 cm rain 0.06
3 cm rain 0.04
Simmalate the city s weather for 10 das and determine by simulation the tofal as *
random numbeTS
rain as well as the total rainfall during the period. Use the following
06 7
67 63 39 55 29 78 70
for simulation. Assume that for the first day of the simulation it had not rained theMB4dJne,2011
[R.U
Solution each
probabilities asssociatedwith a
proportion to the allocation
The numbers 00-99 are allocatedin number
event. If it rained on the previous day, the rain distribution and the random
given below:
 SIMULATION 1207

TABLE 13. 18
Event Probability Cumulative Randon number
probabiliy interval
No rain 0.50 0.50 00 49
|cm rain 0.25 0.75 S0 74
2 cm rain 0.15 0.90 75 89
3 cm rain 0.05 0.95 90 94
4 cm rain 0.03 0.98 95-97
5cm rain 0.02 1.00 98-99
random
distribution and the
simlarly. ifit did not rain the previous day, the necessary
given below:
r allocation is TABLE 13.19
Random number
Event Probability Cumulative
probability interval
0.75 0.75 00-74
No rain
0.15 0.90 75-89
|cm rain
0.06 0.96 90-95
2 cm rain
96-99
3 cm rain 0.04 1.00

the rainfall for 10 days using the gjven random numbers. For the first
let us now simulate
the day before:
tisgiven that it had not rained
TABLE 13.20
Remarks
Random mumbers Event
Day (from table 2)
67 No rain
(from table 2)
63 No rain
(from table 2)
39 No rain
3 (from table
55 No rain
4 (from table
29 No rain
| cm rain (from table 2)
78 (from table 1)
1cm rain
70 (from table 1)
06 No rain
Icm rain (from table 2)
78 (from table 1)
2 cm rain
76
The total rainfall
simulated period. it did not rain on 6 days out of 10.
ience, during the
g the period was 5 cm.
FAMPLE 13.7-12 (Quality Control Problem) One or more of tlree lifferent
The production line is checked by an inspector foritem.
output of a occr's, the is scrapped. If defect B or
of defects. called defects A, B and C. If defect A B
required to rework 3 defect is 15 mimutes and
a
KCurs, the item must be reworked. The timeminutes. The probabilities of an A, Band C defects
ime is 30
to rework a C defect ten items coming off the assembly line, determine the
435,required
0.20
her of ites and 0.10 respectivel:.
For
mumber serapped aand the total mintes of rework time.
any defects, the
following without
random umbers: 40 01 83 63 52
PN for defect A 48 55 91
(04 79 55 15 57 09
P for 36 57
defect B
for defeet C
17
82 95 18 20 84 56 52 03
1208 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Solution
is
The proBbab1ties of occurrence of A. Bad Cdelects are
So, the numbers 00.00 are allocated in proportion to the probab1litie assoLaed ith c
three defects
TABIE I3.21
Wrespetve
Delect A Defect B
Eusts Rankom Rundom
umbers numbers Runon
assgned Hmhers
Yes 00-14 Yes 00-19 Yes IS\ned
No |S.99 No )-99 No

Let us now simulate the output of the assembly lne for 0 items using the given tat
numbers in order to determine the number ol items without any delect.
sCrapped and the total minutes of rework time requircd: nunber ote
TABLE I3. 22

| Item No RN for RN for RN for Whether ny Rework time

defect A defect B defect C defect exists Remure
48 47 82 None
$5 36 95 None
91 57 18 None
40 04 96 15
93 20 None
0 84 A
Scran
83 56 B 15
63 13 B
47 S7 52 None
52 09 03
B,C 15 +30 =45
During the simulated period, 5 out of the ten items had no defects, one item was scrarx
and 90 minutes of total rework time was required by 4 items.
EXAMPLE 13.7-13 (Investment and Budgeting Problem)
The management of ABC company is considering the question of marketing a new pnN
The fixed cost required in the project is?4,000. Three fuctors are uncertain viz. the sellingp
variable cost and the annual sales volumne. The product has a life of only one vea: The mana
has the data these three factors as under:
TABLE 13.23

Selling price Probability Variable cost Probability Sales volume Prvbab

(units)
3 0.2 0.3
0.3 2,000
4 0.5 0.6 3,000
0.3 3 0.1 0.4
5,000
Consider the following sequence of thirty randomn numbers:
81 32 60 04 46 3/ 67 25 24 : 1) 40 02 39 68
59 66 90 : 12 64 79 : 31 86 68 82 89 25 | 98 1
Using the sequence (First 3 random numbers for the first the aneut
trial, etc.) Simulate No 2:
profu for the above project on the basis of 10 trials. |PTU. B. Tech.
(Prod)
 SIMULATION 1209

randomnumbers (00-99 are allocated In proportion to the probabilities associaled

of all.
thethree variables as given under:
tot
TABLE 13.24
Probabilities Cummilutive Rundom numbers
probabilities assigned
0.2 0.2 00-19
0.5 0.7 20-69
0.3 1.0 70-99

0.3 0.3 00-29

0.6 0.9 30-89
0.
.0 90-99
(units)
os 10me
0.3 0.3 00-29
0.3 0,6 30-59
0.4 60-99
ia uS now simulate the output of ten trials using the given random numbers in order to find
Cage profit for the project:
TABLE 13.25
Random Selling Random Variable Random Sales volume
N price ) No. cost R) No. (000 units ')
81 5 32 60 5
04 3 46 31
67 4 23 24
10 3 40 02
39 4 68 08
59 4 66 90
12 3 64 70
31 4 86 68
82 89 25
3 98 16
(Selling price - Variable cost) x Sales volume - Fixed cost.
mlated profit in ten trials would be as follows:
TABLE 13.26
S. No. Profit
R5-2) x5,000 units 7 4.000 711,000
2
(?3-* 2) x 3,000 units - 4,000 71,000
3
(?4 - I) x 2,000 units - 4,000 7 2,000
4
(3-72) x 2.000 units-4,000 ? 2,000
5
{4- 2) x 2,000 units - 4,000
6
(?4 -2) x 5,000 units 4,000 6,000
7
3 - 2 ) x 5,000 units -4,000 ?1,000
8 (R4- 2) x 5,000 units 4,000 6,000
9
(*5 -2) x 2,000 units 4,000 2,000
10
(R3- 3) x 2,000 units - 4,000 4,000
Total 21,000
1210 * OPERATIONS RESEARCH

R21,000)
Therefore, average protit per rial R 2,100.
10
EXAMPLE 13.7-14
The dincctor of finance for a farm cooperative is concerned aboutthe yield per
can cxpect from this wrs corn crop. The probability distrihution of the yield for the acre s
wcather conditions is given below: crr
Yicld in kg per aCre Probahility
|20 ). /8
|40 ).26
l6 0.44
180 0.12
She would like to see a simulation of the yield she might expect over the next l0 ver
weather conditions similar to those she is now experiencing.
() "Simulate the average yield she might expect per acre using the following rand
umbers: 20, 72, 34, 54, 30, 22, 48, 74. 76, 02.
She is also interested in the effect of market price fuctuations On the cooperatives far
revenue. She makes this estimate of per kg prices for corn:
Price per kg ) Probability
2.00 0.05
2.10 0.15
2.20 0.30
2.30 0.25
2.40 0.15
2.50 0.10
(i) Simulate the price she might expect to observe over the next 10 years using the follo
random mumbers:
82. 95, 18, 96, 20, 84, 56, 11, 52, 03.
(iii) Asszming that prices are independent of vields, combine these two into the revenue
acre and also find out the average revenue per acre she
might expect every year:.
[CA. (Final) May: 190)
Solution
(i) Simulation for 10 years is carried out in the table
below:
TABLE 13.27
Yield in Probability Cumulative Range Random numbers fitted
kg/acre probabiliy
120 0.18 00.18 0-17 02(10)
140 0.26 0.44 18 43 20(1 ). 34(3). 30(5). 22(6)
160 0.44 0.88 44-87 72(2). 544), 48(7), 74(8), 76(9)
80 0.12 1.00 88-99
Yields over the next ten years are 140, 160, 140, 160, 140, 140, 160. l60, 160.ind
ky respectively.
 SIMULATION 1211
P eKg ofthe com erop over the neXt 10 years is simulated in the table below:

TABLE 13.28
Probability Cumulative Runlom nnbers
Range
probabiliy fitted
200 0.05 0.05 00 04 03(10)
210 0.15 0.20 I8(3), Il(8)
05 19
20 0.30 0.50 200 49 20(5)
30 0.25 0.75 56(7),52(9)
50-74
240 0.15 0.90 75-89 82(1 ).84(6)
2.50 0.10 1.00 90 -99 95(2). 96 (4)

Price/kg over the next 10 years is 2.40, 2.50, 2.10. 2.50, 2.20, 2.40, 2.30, 2. 10, 2.50
respectively.
Revenue/acre = Yield in kg/acre x price in /kg.
Revenue/acre over the next 10 years is 336. 400. 294. 400. 308. 336. 368, 336. 368
l espectively.
Expected yield/acre = 120 x 0.18 +140 x 0.26 +160 x 0,44 + 180 × 0.12
= (21.6 + 36.4 + 70,4 + 21.6) kg = 150 kg.
Expected price/kg =(2 x 0.05 + 2.10 x 0.15 +2.20 x 0.30 + 2.30 x 0.25
+ 2.40 x 0.15 + 2.50 × 0.10)
= (0.10 + 0.315 + 0.66 + 0.575 + 0.36 + 0.25) = 2.26.
Average revenuelacre = 150 x 2.26 = 339.
AMPLE 13.7-15
Popa Lid. trade in a perishable commodity. Each day Popa Lid. receives supplies of the
from a wholesaler but the quantity supplied is a random variable, as is the subsequent
of
Ecastomer demand for the commodity. Both supply and demand are expressed in batches
3S and over the past working year (300 days), Popa Ltd. has kept records of supplies and
D. The results are in the table below:
TABLE 13.29

Customers No. of days

Wholesaler No. of day's
occurring demand occUrring
supplies
50 60
S0
I00 60
I00
150 150
150 90
200 30
200 60
10unit. AI present unsold units
"Pa Lid. buys the commodity at 6/unit and sells at
estimates that
of the day are nworthless and there are no storage jacilities. Popa Lid.
following random nunbere:
of unsatisfied demand on av day costs them ? 2. Using the 5
8. 4, 8, 0. 3, 3: 4, 7, 9.
6. land
annual profi.
mulate six days 'trading and estimate the storage facilities.
exercise to estimate the value of
"pear the
[JCWA (Final) 2000)

in the table below:

are simulated for 6 days
holesaler's supplies
1212 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
TABLE 13.30

Total no. of No. of days Random no,

Supplies No. of days oul of 10
60
days
60 2
range
00 01
Randonh
no. fitte
100 90 |50 02-04 0(4)
150 90 40 05-07
200 60 300 10 08 09

:. Wholesaler's supplies the next 6 days are 200, 100. 200, 50, 100 0)and,8(3)
respectively.
Similarly, customer's demand over the next 6 days is simulated in the table
T00 wni
TABLE 13.31 below:.
Demand No. of days Total no. of No. of days Random no.
0CCuITmg days out of l0 r'ange Random no. fited
S0 60 60 2 00-01
(5)
02-03
100
200
60
30
120
300 09
4(1), 7(2), 6(4), 516)
9(9)
Customer's demand in the next 6days is 150, 150, 200, 150, 50 and 150
The shortage and net profit or loss in the 6days is now calculated as shown inunits
the respectbelivoelw
TABLE 13.32
table
Day Supply Demand Shortage
n0. units
Net profit
cost R) units sales ) units COSt
Or loss R)
200 1,200 150 1,500 1,500 - 1,200 = 300
T00 600 150 1,500 50 100 1,500 600- 100 =800
3 200 1,200 200 2,000 2,000 - 1,200 = 800
50 300 150 1,500 100
5
200 1,500- 300 - 200 =1.00
100 600 50 500 500 - 600 =- 100
I00 600 150 1,500 50 100 1.500 - 600- 100= 800
() Net profit from table 13.32 for 6 days = 3,600.
,000x 300
** Annual profit = =1.80,000.
(i) To determine the value of storage facilities we,
first, construct table 13.33.
TABLE 13.33
Day no. SuppBy Demand Storage Remarks
200 I50 50
2 100 150 Nil Shortage cost of ? 100 for 50 units could
be avoided.
3 200 200 Nil
4 50 Nil
00 50 50
100 150 could
Nil of R100 for 50 units
Shortage cost
be avoided.
If the storage facilities are provided, as mentioned in the remarks column. 200ofshortage
cost could be avoided by storing 50 + 50 = 100 units. These 100 units could be then sold,vieklig
a profit of 4 x 00 =400.
The value of storage facilities
=(200 + 400) =600.
 SIMULATION 1213

13.7-16(Job Sequencing Problem)

E
engaged in manufacturing d1fferent types of equipment for Various Consumers.
ssembly lines to produce its product. The processing time for each of the
distributions.:
wvurded as a random variable and is described by the following
TABLE 13.34
Pocessng lime (mini
Assembly X Assemblh Y
0,10 0.20
0.15 0.40
0.40 0.20
46 0.10 0.15
48 0.25 0.05
10 units of
ollowing random numbers, generate data on the processing times for
anld compute lhe expected processing time for the product:
4236, 7573, 4943, 1283, 2014, 3604, 9344, 5316, 7606, 0089.
for ihe pupoSe, read the numbers horizontally, aking the first
two digits for the processing
mbly Xand the last two digits for processing time on assembly Y.
[PTU. B. Tech. April, 2012)
on
t of all we allocate random number intervals for various processing times.
TABLE 13.35
Assembly Y
Assembly X
Cum. prob. R.N.
Prob. Cum. prob. R.N. Prob.
interval interval
00 09 0.20 0.20 00- 19
0.10 0.10
0.60 20 59
0.15 0.25 10 24 0.40
25-64 0.20 0.80 60 - 79
0.40 0.65
0.15 0.95 94
0.10 0.75 65- 74 95 99
75 - 99 0.05 1.00
0.25 L.00
respectively for assemblies X and Y. We
andom numbers for the first unit are 42 and 36
these are 44 and 42 minutes respectively.
ethat the processing times corresponding to
computed in the table given below.
processing times for various units are
TABLE 13.36
Assembly Y Total time
Assembly X
R. No. Time (min) (min.)
R. No. Time (min)
36 42 86
42 44
73 44 92
75 48
43 42 86
49 44
83 46 88
12 42
14 40 82
20 42
04 40 84
36 44
44 42 90
93 48
16 40 84
53 44
06 40 88
76 48
89 46 86
00 40
Iotal tine for 10 866 minutes.
units
866 = 86.6 minutes.
pected time for the product=
10
 1214 OPERATIONS RESEARCH

EXAMPLE 13.7-17 (Queuing Problem)

ston of noah made garments, then is one clerk at the ntet wh is e
the hlls rxens aments and place the packed garmenis into fa bags, et The
arTival at thc chek counter is a randon phenomenon and the time hetween the rr
from one minate e mites, the frequency distrihutton for hich is giien in tuble l
senKetime (time taken b the counter clerki varies from one minute to three minutes The
of the store fecis that thc counter clerk is not suffhcienth loaded with work and wants
o kum some additional work But hetore tak1ng the decison he likes to know prertel
Nentagr of timc the counter <lerk s dle
TABLE I3.3
FrvuenT dstrzhution of tnterarrival times
Time hhecn Frquen Cumulate Random no ranze
arTIals (mules IreqtienC1 (o
35 34
60 35-59
60- 79
80- 91
100 92 - 99
TABLE 13.38
FrequenCT distribution of senice times
Sencc timc Frequency % Cumulative Random no. range
(Tutes requency (%)
1.0 20 00 - 19
20 - 54
2.0 80 55 - 79
95 80 -94
3.0 100 9$-99
Solution
As the random numbers are not provided in the problem. we select them from the rand
number table C-1 as indicated in table 13.39. The process of arrivals and service is simulated
20 customers.
TABLE 13.39
Arrivals Random number Interarrval time Random no.(Last Senice time
First teo digits of tminutes) (3) odigits of last ininutes
last col. in table col. in table C-l)
C-l) (2) 4
46 2
6
06 1

79 3

06
9
9 51
13
11 65 93
 SIMULATION 1215

2
01

40 1.5

98
61 2
41 1.5

tQomputations carried for 20 customer arrivals are shown in table 13.40. When the first
counter clerk is free and service immcdiately bcgins. Service time required is
s( table 3.39). Time between the first and second arrivals is 2 minutes (table 13.39)
the clerk is ide for 0.5 minute before the next arrival occurs. When the second customer
onice immediately starts, required service time for 2nd arrival is 2 minutes and the time
the 2nd and 3rd arrivals is also 2 minutes. Therefore. there is no idle time for the counter
wen the second and third arrivals. For the third arrival, service time is 1.5 minutes and
oramal time between Srd and 4th arrivals is only one minute and obviously 4th customer
t to wait for 0.5 minute betore the service can begin. This way the computations are
-s table 13.40). For 20 customer arrivals the counter clerk is idle for 10.5 minutes, while
omers have to wait for 7.5 minutes. The total time taken by 20 arrivals is 4I minutes
10.5x 100
a up the interarrival times). Therefore. the counter clerk is idle for about = 25.6%
41
ime. Based on this specific information, the manager can take the decision of assigning
atitional work to the counter clerk.
TABLE 13.40
cTNal Actual Service Service Service Counter Customer s
e MIn) arrival time time (min) Starts ends (min) clerk 's idle waiting
(min) (min) time (min) time (nin)
2 1.5 2 3.5 2
4 2 4 6 0.5
1.5 7.5
6 .5 7.5 1.5
9 1.5 ..3.13,.3-..
9 10.5
12 0.5
12 2.5 12 14.5
16 1.5 16 17.5
8 19 0.5
19 .5 19 20.5
22 2.5 22 24.5
24 24.5 25.5 0.5
26 26 27 0.5
28 28 29.5
20 2 29.5 31.5 0,5
34 34 37 2.5 -

36 2 37 39
37 1.5 39 40.5
40 1 40.5 41.5
0.5
41 41.5 43.5
0.5
10.5 7.5
 1216 OPERATIONS RE SEARCH

EXAMPLE 13.7-18 (Queulng Problem)

ale ves lhes
is not fed The pocessn time on
the jo for the lo
dsiributions gavn below

Imerrl ime sribution

Interarrval time (mn)
0

10

00
l e lng ime of jobs
Determine the ille time of the mwhist
If the muchinist s wages e ) er hor ml obs itne ime osts 0p
would i be cconomical to (ngae a sccond atendmt
Solution
Table below shows the cumulative lrequeney distribution lor interarrival (imes, Twenty
random nos. picked tronm random Io. table ate also plotted. The senal numbes of he ton
nos. are shown in the parentheses.
TABLE 3,42

Iterarrival Frequency Cumulative Runge Rumom nos. fitted

time (min) requewy
4 10 00-09 03(5), 09|7), 02(23)
5 2 30 I0-29 22(1), 192), l6 3), 23(8), I5(0).
I8(15), L2(|8)
6 40 70 30-69 S8(10), S7(|). 48(12), 6l(3).
36(14), 38(20), 53(2), 40(22)
7 20 90 70-89 78(4), 78(7), 88(16), 8S(19), 85(2)
8 100 90-99 93(6). 95(24)
Thus the interarrival times of the jobs are 5, 5, 5, 7, 4, 8, 7, 5, 5, 6, 6. 6, 6, 6, 5, 7.4. 5,.
6, 6, 6, 4, 8, and 7 minutes respectively.
Likewise, the twenty five jobs will have the processing times derived from the lollowin tabe
TABLE 13.43

Processing Frequency Cumulative Range Rundom nos. fitted

time (nin) frequency
3 5 5 00-04
4 30 35 05-34 13(2), 09(3). 20(4), I8(10), 24(|1).
22(12), 07(13). 29 (14), 33(16), 123.
31(24)
5 30 65 35-64 57(15), 49(|7), 64(I8), 57(22)
9T
6 30 95 65-94 68(|), 73(5), 87(6), 927). 939).
5 100 95-99 99(8), 98(20), 9912). 9625)
 SIMULATION 121
times for the jobs are 6, 4, 4, 4, 6, 6, 6, 7. 6, 4, 4, 4, 4. 4, 5. 4. 5. 5, 6.
and7 minutes respectively.
can now be prepared by linking the interarrival times and processing times of

TABLE 13.44
Actual
Thal tine P'rocessing Processing Processing Machinis! Johs
time (nmin) starts (min) ends (nin) idle time wailing
(min) (min) time (nin)

10) 4
4 19
22 26 3
26 26 32
34 6 34 40 2
41 6 41 47
46 7 47 54
51 54 60 3
57 4 60 64 3
63 64 68
69 4 69 73
75 4 75 79 2
4 81 85 2
86 5 86 91
93 4 93 97 2
97 97 102
02 5 102 107
09 6 109 115
115 122

From table 13.44,

total idle time for the machinist in 2-hour period = 21 minutes,
total waiting time for the jobs in 2-hour period = 9 minutes.
.Average idle time for the machinist / hour =l0.5 minutes, and idle-time cost of the
10.5
nist /hour x 20=3.50.
60
9
iverage waiting time for the jobs / hour -=4.5 minutes, and waiting-time cost of the
4.5 X30 =2,25.
60
Since the idle-ime cost of the machinist/hour is more than the waiting-time cost of the jobs/
the second attendant.
not economical to engage
ANPndont LEisS present to issue them. The arrival and service time distributions are shown below:
13.7-19 (Queuing Problem)
Ina workshop.. fitters report at the tool crib after 8 A. M. to get the tools where the tcol room
1218 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
TABLE 13.45

Arrnal distribution
Frequecy
Service distributm
Service time (min)
Interarrsal time (min)
3.5
45
45
5.5
0,05
0.20
3.5-4.5
4.5-5.5
Irequen
0.35 5.5-6.5
5.5- 6.5
6.5-7.5 0.25 6.5-7.5
0.10 7.5-8.5 029
7.5 8.5
0.1
85- 95 0.05

Determine the average waiting time of a fitter in the queue. What is the averuze t
spends in the system? Simulate the queuing phenomenon for a period of 2 hours.
Also fund a.
waiting time in non-empty queue and per cent time the tool room attendant
period remains tus,
Solution
First. mean values of interarrival times and service imes are computed. Then Cum
frequency distributions for interarrival times are calculated. Random numbers are also p
their serial nos. are shown in parentheses.
TABLE 13.46
Mean interarrival Frequency Cumulative Range Random mumbers fitted
time (min) (%) frequency
5 00-04 01 (15)
20 25 05-24 15 (1), 09 (2), 20 (12)
35 60 25-59 41 (3), 55 (7), 35 (9), 41 (
45 (13), 38 (14). 39 (I8). 53
7 25 85 60-84 74 (4), 72 (5), 67 (6), 71 iN
(16), 63 (17)
10 95 85-94
5 100 95-99 96 (11)
Thus the interarrival times of the fitters are 5. 5. 6. 7. 7 7.6. 7. 6.6.9. 5. 6. 0.
and 6 minutes respectively.
Likewise, the service times for the 19 fitters can be
obtained from the tollo"
TABLE 13.47
Mean service Frequency
time (minutes) Cumulative Range Random numbers fited
frequency
10 00-09 02 (11). 07 (12)
5 20
20 (1), 22 (7). 23 (15)
30
10-29
40 31 (0
34 (3), 54 (4). 40 (5),(17). 55
70
30-69
48
7 20 48 (8). 64 (13))
72 (2), 74 (9). 76 (10)
90
70-89
100 (16). 91 (1)
Thus the service times for the fitters are 5.7.90-99
6.6, 6. 6, 95 6, 7, 7,914.4 6 8 s 8.6.6
5, (14).
8 minutes respectivcly
Table 13.48 can now be prepared by linking the interarrival and service timesotthefite
 SIMULATION 1219

TABLE I3.48
Joerarrin Actual Atendants
Service Service Service Fitter s
arrival time idle time
Starts ends waiting
time (min) (min) (min) time (min) (min)
(min)
8.05 8,05 8.10
S.10 7
8.10 8.17
8.16 8.17 8.23
8.23 8.23 8.29
8.30 8.30 8.36
8.37 8.37 8.43
8.43 8.43 8.48
8.50 6 2
8.50 8.56
8.56 7 8.56 9,03
9.02 7 9.03 9.10
9.11 4 9.11 9.15
9.16 4 9.16 9.20
9.22 6 9.22 9.28 2
9.28 9.28 9.36
9.32 9.36 9.41
9.39 8 9.41 9.49 2
9.46 9.49 9.55 3

6 9.52 9.55 10.01 3

6 9.58
108 |4 13

From table 13.48.

total waiting time on the part of all the 18 fitters = 14 minutes.
14 7
- minute.
. Average waiting time of a fitter in the queue 18 9
08
=0 minutes.
Average time a fitter spends in the system 9
Average waiting time of a fitter in non-empty queue
total waiting time
no. of cases when fitter has to wait
14_,! minutes.
==2,
oal tool room attendants' time for 18 fitters = Servicc time + ldle time = 108 + 13=121 minutes.
SiCentage time the tool room attendant remains busy
108 x 100 = 89.26%.
121

ELANPDetLEermi13.7-20
ne the
(Maintenance Problem)
optimum number of mechanics for 100 semi-automatic machine tools. The
e o f the machine tools is gutomatic and warrants attention of the mechanics only when
ere is breakdown. The breakdowns have been seen to occur at the following times:

TiBrmeeakdown
3 4 6 7 8 9
(hour) L.2 2.1 2.4 2.6 3. 4.3 5.1 6.0
1220 OPERATIONS RESEARCHH
he heen obseved lo be
The repar time for the mr h e tools
distribution
Time of
repair (hour)
210 150
Frequenc
The wage of a mec hani is Nper hor Dowlme cost of the macm
alculate whether bxo o thve cchanics should he emploved Use rondom
SNS, ON9 657 NSS 20 NS nd S30 HmbeS
Solution
only
Since trequenev distnbution is given lor the repr imes they ate calu
table below:
TABLE 3.49

Repair time Frequenc Cumulative frequecV RN Runye

Randonmfutednumte
S0 S0 000-049
1.3 I10 160 050-159
14 210 370 |60-369 285 (K1
L.5 350 720 370-719
720-824
657 (5). 5M
1.6 105 825
1.7 70 895 825-894
.8 50 945 895-944
1.9 45 990 945-989) O89 (4)
2.0 I,000 990-999
Thus the repair times for the nine break doWns are 1.3, 1.3, I.7, 1.9, 1.5, 1.7. L6 4
1.5 hours respectively. Table l3.50 is now prepared by linking the machine tool breakdown lr
with the repair times when two mechanics are employed.
It may be noted that the breakdown time is clock time and not the interbreak down L
Accordingly. breakdown times are not added in this table whereas we added them in the prg
examples.
TABLE 13.50

Me tool Repair Mechanic Repair Repair Waiting time ldle tie

breakdown time (hr) engaged starts (lu) ends (hr) the mechar
of the mc
time (hr)
tool (hr) th
1.3 Ist ) 1.3
.2 1.3 2nd 1.2 2.5
2.1 1.7 Ist 2.1 3.8
2.4 1.9 2nd 2.5 4.4 0.1
2.6 1.5 Ist 3.8 5.3
3.8 1.7 2nd 4.4 6.1 0,6
4.3 1.6 Ist 5.3 6,9 L,0
5.1 1.4 2nd 6.1 7.5 L.0
6.0 15 Ist 6.9 0,9
8.4
Total: 4.8
 SIMULATION 1221

able 13.51is prepared if three persons are

.
employed.
TABLE 13.51
Repair Mechanic Repair Repair Waiting time ldle time of
time (hr) engaged the mechanic
Starts (hr) ends (hr of the n/e
tool (hr) (hr)
.3 Ist ) 1.3
1.3 2nd 1.2 2.5 .2
.7 3rd 2.1 3.8 2.1
|.9 l st 2.4 4.3
1.5 2nd 2.6 4. 0.J
1.7 3rd 3.8 5.5
1.6 2nd 4.3 $.9 0.2
14 Ist 5.1 6.4 0.8
1.5 3rd 6.0 7.5 0.5
Total: Nil Total: 6.0

analysis
For 2-mechanic system
Wages to be paid/hr =2 x 18 -7 36,
downtime cost of the machine tools 75 x 4.8 =24.
Total cost/hr (36+24) =60.
: For 3-mechanic system
Wages to be paid/hr =3x 18 =7 54.,
downtime cost of the machine tools =5 x0 =0.
.:. Total cost/hr = (54 + 0) = 54.
the total cos/hour by 6.
Ihus engaging three mechanics is more economical as it reduces
AMPLE 13.7-21 (Simulation in Inventory Control)
the level of stock it
company trading in motor vehicle spares wishes to determine
there is a lead time for stock
id carry for the itemns in its range. Demand is not certain and
lishment. For one item X, the following infornation is obtained:
4 5 6 7
Demand (units/day) 3
0.1
0.3 0.3
ProbabilityCarying cost per unit per day' 0.1 0.2
20 paise,
ordering cost per order 5,
= 3days.
lead time for replenishment to
hand at the
0Ck inSiulation beginning of the simulation exercise was 20 units. You are required
rwn over a period of 10 days with he objective of fevaluating the following
lory rule: order falls belo /5 mits
er 15 units when present iventory plus any outstanding
The sequence of random nos. used is 0, 9, 1, 1, 5, 1, 8, 6, 3. 5, 7, I, 2, 9 using the first
ber for day 0ne. Your calculation should include the total cost of operating this inventory rule
0days. [PIU. B. Tech. (Prod) May. 2011)
hution is determined.
First. the demand in each of the 10 days
1222 OPERATIONS RESEARCH
TABLE 3.52

Probabilin dixtribution of demnand

Cumulative probahility Range
Demand Probability
0,1
0.1 x 10 = | Rundom nos. fted
0 (1)
4 0.2 0.3 x 10= 3 1-2 I(3). 1
0.3 0.6 x 10 = 6 3-5 5 (5), 3 (4), I (6,
0.3 0.9 x 10 =9 6-8 8 (7), 6 (9), S(19,
L.0 x 10 = 10 9 (2)
(8)
0.1
Thus the demand for item X on the ten days is 3, 7, 4, 4, 5,4, 6, 6. 5 and 5
units
Out of the random numbers given, the first
for 10 days.
ten numbers have been used to
simulate rtheespectdemanivel
The inventory carrying costs and ordering costs are computed in the lable below:
TABLE 13.53

Simulation of demand, delivery and costs

Day Demand Units Lead time Units Iventory Inventory Ordering
(units) ordered (days) received carrying cost R
cost )
0 20 4.00
3 17 3.40
2 7 15 3 2.00 5.00
3 4 1.20
4 2 0.40
15 3 5 2 2.40 5.00
8 1.60
7 6 2 0.40
8 15 11 2.20 5.00
9 6 1.20
10 5 0.20
15.00
19.00
Total cost of operating inventory for 10 days = (19 + 15) = 34.
EXAMPLE 13.7-22 (Simulation in Inventory Control)
Consider an inventory control problem in which demand during lead time as well as kad h
distributions are given in table 13.54. The reorder point is 6 units and reorder quantily i
Ifthe ordering cost is 100/order, inventory carrying cost is 4unithweek and the shortage ecost
760/unit/week, find the total inventory cost for 15 weeks. Assume an initial inventorn of l0unis

TABLE 13.54
Demand Probabilin
Probability Lead time (weeks)
0.10 0.20
0.45 065
0.30 015
4
0./5
Assume the following random 95. 01. 10.
numbers
66, 69, 76, 86, 56 and 84. Also assume for the demand:
the following 49, 67., 06.for 30,
random numbers the lead time:

[PU BE (E. &Ec)

15, 03.
 SIMULATION 1223

nrobability distribution of denmand as well as that of lcad time are determined.

TABLE 13.55
Probability distribution of dennd during lead time
Probability
0.10
Rundom no. range
Cumulative probability
00-09
0.10
0.45 10-54
0.55
0.30 0.85 55-84
0.15 1.00 85-99
TABLE 13.56
Probability distribution of lead time
Jad time Probability Cumulative probabiliy Random n0. range
0.20 0.20 00-19
0.65 0.85 20-84
0.15 1.00 85-99
lis assumed that all orders are placed at the beginning of the week and deliveries against
Lvders are also received at the beginning of thecorresponding week.
Simulation of demand and lead time for 15 weeks are shown in table 13.57.
TABLE 13.57

a Stock on Demand Quantity Stock on Short Lead time

hand at the received hand at age
beginning Randonm Quantity the end of Random Period
number demanded the week nmber
of the week
2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)
10 49 1 9
67 2 7
06
30
84
93
01 )

70 12 12
12 80 10
6
69
79
76
4 86
)
1 56
84 2 10
88
Inthe simulated demand of 1 unit as obtained
from table 13.55
against random
Ser first
49.is weeek, inventory of 9 units is entere@ in
in column (4) of table 13.57. Closing
this table.6lled Closing inventory for the remaining weeks is calculated the same way. column
At the
Weck 4, the closing inventory is 6 units. So, an order is placed in the beginning of week
quantity of 12 units.