Current Affairs Notes 2025

1.​ Topics cover (35 topics)

2.​ Daily articles (dawn- foreign affairs last 3 months 12 weeks)
3.​ Book+ personalities+ research 30-40 min
4.​ Subjects

Aqsa Zoha

1.​ Pak-China Relations (CPEC 2.0, 5.​ Pak-India Relations (Kashmir, Water
India factor, US-China rivalry)​ Dispute, Article 370, Sir Creek,
SAARC)​
2.​ Pak-US Relations (Post-Afghan
withdrawal, democracy, India angle) 6.​ Pak-Afghanistan (TTP, Border
3.​ China’s rise and US strategy of fencing, Taliban government)
containment (Multilateralism vs 7.​ Geoeconomics vs. Geopolitics
Great Power Competition) (Pakistan’s balancing act)​
4.​ Indo-Pacific, QUAD, AUKUS, ​
Taiwan Crisis​
​

8.​ Pak-Iran (Border tensions, JCPOA, 10.​Pak-Israel Relations (Palestine

China-Saudi-Iran triangle)- Iran issue, normalization wave)​
Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) & Saudi
Response 11.​International Groupings (SCO,
9.​ Pak-GCC & Arab World (Saudi BRICS+, G20, IMEC, OIC, ASEAN)​
Vision 2030, Iran-Saudi
rapprochement, Palestine)​

12.​Ukraine-Russia War & Global 14.​Palestine-Israel War (2023–2024) –

Realignments​ implications for Pakistan​

13.​Climate Diplomacy (Climate 15.​India’s Global Positioning (G20

reparations, COP meetings)​ Presidency, US Relations, Canada
Row)
16.​Pakistan’s image crisis abroad &
foreign office reforms- pakistan’s
 foreign policy ​

17.​CPEC at 10 Years – Evaluation​

🔹 Domestic Political, Legal, and Governance Issues

1.​ Constitutional Amendments (18th & 25th)​

2.​ Civil-Military Relations​

3.​ Judicial Activism & Suo Moto​

4.​ Political Polarization & Institutional Decay​

5.​ Federalism & Provincial Autonomy​

6.​ Civil Service Reforms​

7.​ Local Government System​

8.​ Elections Commission & Electoral Reforms​

9.​ Freedom of Expression vs National Security​

10.​Reko Diq and Ratle Dam Cases​

11.​Climate Resilience and Governance Failures​

12.​Police Reforms​

13.​Disaster Management Systems​

🔹 Economic Issues (Interlinked with Foreign Policy)

 1.​ Pakistan’s Current Economic Crisis (Debt, Inflation, IMF)​

2.​ Balance of Payments Crisis​

3.​ Public Debt & Fiscal Discipline​

4.​ Tax Reforms and FBR performance​

5.​ IMF Conditionalities and Sovereignty​

6.​ SMEs, IT Sector and Youth Employment​

7.​ CPEC and Economic Corridors​

8.​ Renewables & Energy Security​

9.​ Green Economy & Climate Finance​

10.​Trade Relations with China, GCC, ASEAN, EU​

🔹 Social Issues
1.​ Women Rights, Feminism & GBV​

2.​ Minority Rights​

3.​ Youth Bulge and Employment​

4.​ Education Crisis (Single Curriculum, Reforms)​

5.​ Criminal Justice System​

6.​ Health Policy & Pandemics​

7.​ Social Media and Disinformation​

8.​ Digital Rights & Cybersecurity​

Schedule
Pakistan
Topic:
1.​ Constitution +Amendments (18, 25, 26th Amendment)
2.​ Political History (Parliamentary and Presidential system)- economic +foreign policy
3.​ Wars and details- civil military relations
4.​ History*
5.​ Major Institutions- Planning commision - all institutions - policy making- budget
6.​ Judiciary Suo Moto
7.​ Governance- Local governance- Bureaucracy- indicators- corruption (Governing the
ungovernable)- ELECTIONS
8.​ Geography- water crisis- geostrategic importance indus water treaty- Reko Diq Sandik
9.​ National security-afghanistan Balochistan - NSP
10.​Nuclear politics and strategic stability- disarmament
11.​National integration+identity+ Social issues
12.​Foreign Policy - relations

PESTEL Dimensions with Key Current Affairs Topics (as of 2024–2025)

Dimension Key Topics (Global & National) What to Focus On (Detailed
Analysis Areas)

P – Political - US-China rivalry - Shifting global alliances (e.g.,

- Gaza-Israel War and Middle East NATO expansion, BRICS+)
polarization - Role of major powers in
- India’s elections and its conflicts
regional/global ambitions - Impact on Pakistan’s foreign
- Russia-Ukraine War relations
- Pakistan’s political instability - Rise of populism, nationalism
post-elections - New regional security
- Geopolitics of Indo-Pacific and Quad architectures (e.g., AUKUS)
vs BRICS+ - Global South vs West tensions
- Military coups in West Africa

E – Economic - Global inflation & interest rate hikes - Economic sovereignty & IMF
- US debt ceiling & potential recession conditionality
- IMF policies and Pakistan’s debt trap - Bilateral vs multilateral trade
concerns models
- De-dollarization trends (China, - Pakistan’s fiscal reforms and
Russia, BRICS currency) taxation
- CPEC revival & Pakistan’s economic - Green economy and
reforms sustainable investments
- Global supply chain reconfigurations - Rise of digital economy &
- India-UAE trade deals; EU-ASEAN crypto regulation
partnerships
 - Global food and energy
security

S – Social - Global migration/refugee crises (e.g., - Social cohesion, public dissent

Gaza, Rohingya, Ukraine) movements
- Rise of Islamophobia, racism in - Demographic dividend vs
Western societies burden
- Women’s rights and protests in Iran - Human development indicators
- Youth unemployment in Pakistan (HDI, literacy, health)
- Population explosion vs aging - Role of media and information
(China, Japan vs Africa, Pakistan) wars
- Education and health disparities - Religious, ethnic, linguistic
conflicts

T– - AI and ChatGPT regulation debates - Ethical regulation of AI

Technological - 5G rollout and tech wars (Huawei, - Cyber sovereignty and digital
TikTok bans) colonialism
- Semiconductor race (US, China, - Pakistan’s tech policy, internet
Taiwan, India) access, and innovation capacity
- Space race (SpaceX, China’s lunar - Future of work and digital
missions) upskilling
- Digital surveillance & cybersecurity - Tech dependence on foreign
- Pakistan’s digital economy powers
(freelancing, fintech, e-governance)

E– - Climate change and COP28 - Pakistan’s climate vulnerability

Environmental outcomes index
- Pakistan’s flood rehabilitation efforts - Global climate financing and
- EU Green Deal, US Inflation carbon markets
Reduction Act - Water diplomacy (Indus Waters
- Water scarcity in South Asia Treaty)
- Renewable energy transition - Urban resilience and smart
- Biodiversity and food security cities
- National disaster management
capacity
L – Legal - ICC arrest warrants (e.g., Netanyahu, - International law vs state
Putin) sovereignty
- FATF compliance (Pakistan’s exit) - Rule of law in Pakistan and
- Internet governance and digital rights judicial credibility
- Legal reforms in Pakistan (judicial - Cyber law, privacy laws
independence, civil service reforms) - Domestic constitutional
- Human rights issues (Kashmir, developments
Palestine, Xinjiang) - Bilateral and multilateral legal
- Global human rights regimes (ICJ, treaties
UNHRC)

Integrated PESTEL, MEETS & GPEST Framework for

Current Affairs (2024–2025)
Dimension Key Topics (Global & National) Focus Areas for Analysis

P – Political - US-China Rivalry: Ongoing tensions - Shifts in global power

affecting global trade and security. structures.
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Implications - Impact on Pakistan's
for NATO and global energy markets. foreign policy.
- Middle East Dynamics: Gaza-Israel - Regional stability and
conflict and its regional impact. security concerns.
- Pakistan's Political Landscape: - Role of international
Post-election governance and organizations in conflict
civil-military relations. resolution.
- Global Alliances: Role of BRICS+,
Quad, and SCO in reshaping
international order.

E – Economic - Global Inflation: Central banks' - Economic sovereignty vs.

policies and their effects. dependency.
- IMF Engagements: Pakistan's - Regional trade dynamics.
economic reforms and debt - Infrastructure development
management. and its socio-economic
- Trade Agreements: India's FTAs with impact.
GCC and EU. - Digital transformation and
- CPEC Developments: Infrastructure regulatory challenges.
projects and economic corridors.
- Digital Economy: Rise of fintech and
e-commerce in South Asia.
S – Social - Migration Crises: Refugee - Social cohesion and
movements due to conflicts and climate integration.
change. - Human development
- Demographic Changes: Aging indices.
populations vs. youth bulges. - Role of civil society and
- Social Movements: Protests for rights NGOs.
and freedoms globally. - Education and skill
- Education Reforms: Implementation development initiatives.
of National Education Policies.

T – Technological - AI and Automation: Ethical - Balancing innovation with

considerations and job market impacts. regulation.
- Cybersecurity Threats: Data - National strategies for
breaches and national security. technological advancement.
- Space Exploration: New frontiers and - Cyber laws and data
geopolitical implications. protection policies.
- Digital Infrastructure: 5G rollout and - Investment in research and
internet accessibility. development.

E – Environmental - Climate Agreements: Outcomes of - Climate resilience and

COP28 and national commitments. adaptation measures.
- Natural Disasters: Floods and - Environmental policies and
droughts affecting agriculture. their enforcement.
- Renewable Energy: Transition - Sustainable development
strategies and investments. goals alignment.
- Biodiversity Loss: Conservation - International cooperation
efforts and policies. on environmental issues.

L – Legal - Judicial Reforms: Independence and - Rule of law and access to

efficiency of legal systems. justice.
- Human Rights Issues: Global - Legal frameworks for
scrutiny and domestic responses. emerging challenges.
- International Law: Compliance with - International legal
treaties and conventions. obligations.
- Cyber Laws: Addressing digital - Reforms to enhance legal
crimes and privacy concerns. institutions.

M – Military - Defense Modernization: Upgrades in - Military diplomacy and

military capabilities. cooperation.
- Strategic Alliances: Joint exercises - Defense budgets and
and defense pacts. procurement policies.
- Border Security: Management of - Civil-military relations.
cross-border tensions. - Regional security
architectures.
 - Counterterrorism Efforts: National
and international collaborations.

E – Ethical - AI Ethics: Responsible development - Ethical frameworks and

and use of technology. guidelines.
- Corporate Responsibility: ESG - Balancing innovation with
considerations in business. societal values.
- Media Ethics: Misinformation and - Accountability
journalistic standards. mechanisms.
- Bioethics: Debates on medical and - Public discourse and
scientific advancements. ethical education.

E – Environmental (See Environmental in PESTEL) (See Environmental in

(MEETS) PESTEL)

T – Technological (See Technological in PESTEL) (See Technological in

(MEETS) PESTEL)

S– - Poverty Alleviation: Government - Social equity and inclusion.

Socio-Economic schemes and their effectiveness. - Economic disparities and
- Healthcare Access: Public health policy responses.
initiatives and challenges. - Labor market dynamics.
- Employment Trends: Gig economy - Urban planning and
and labor rights. sustainable cities.
- Urbanization: Infrastructure and
housing policies.

G – Geographical - Geopolitical Hotspots: South China - Geostrategic importance of

Sea, Arctic region. regions.
- Resource Distribution: Water sharing - Natural resource
and mineral rights. management.
- Climate Zones: Impact on agriculture - Environmental
and livelihoods. vulnerabilities.
- Disaster-Prone Areas: Preparedness - Regional cooperation
and mitigation strategies. mechanisms.

Domains of Current Affair and Pakistan Affair topics

History, Economy and Political Foreign Policy and National Issues International Issues
Ideology, Challenges Development and security + Societal Issues
governance
Reformers Current economic Constitutional Basis of foreign policy- Terrorism and The Changing Middle East:
challenges + history emotions, feelings and Extremism - Opportunities and Challenges
Statistics +Amendments ideology Strategy and for Pakistan. Discuss the
policies
regional power struggle, Iran's
Balochistan nuclear program, the Abraham
Afghan Refugee Accords, and their potential
impact on Pakistan's interests.

Israel- Palestine

Early Foreign aid and Role of Judiciary Afghanistan Emerging U.S.-China Rivalry: Navigating
years IMF (improved ongoing situation in technological a Multipolar World. Analyze the
Challenge governance) Afghanistan and its trends and their strategic competition between
s​ implications for impact on
the US and China and its
+Factional Pakistan's security and Pakistan:
Politics stability. Discuss the implications for Pakistan's
impact of economic and security
emerging alliances.
technologies like
artificial South China Sea and Taiwan
intelligence, Crisis
automation, and
cryptocurrency on
Pakistan's
economy,
security, and
social landscape.

Cyber security
and national
security

1971 Youth Bulge- 18th Amendment Iran NSP 2022-2026 Hybrid Warfare
collapse resource crisis

Causes of Role of national and China- CPEC challenges Water crisis - Russia-Ukraine War: A
agricultural and political parties and opportunities transboundary Turning Point in International
industrial decline presented by water issue Security? Analyze the war's
China-Pakistan
long-term implications for
Energy Crisis Economic Corridor
(CPEC) for Pakistan's global power dynamics, the
Resource crisis development. future of international order,
and its impact on Pakistan's
foreign policy.
The global food crisis and
Pakistan's reliance on
imported wheat: Balancing
affordability and food security.
Discuss the impact of the
Ukraine war and other factors
on food prices and propose
solutions for domestic food
security

Root causes +Way Institutional growth South Asia- Elections Climate Change and
forward and evolution Organizations Regional Cooperation in
South Asia. Discuss the
role of Pakistan in
growing water crisis,
promoting regional
peace and security, transboundary challenges, and
opportunities for joint climate
action in the region.
 Balance of Civil-military US - evolving relation Education +Single
payment crisis Relations national
curriculum

government's challenges posed Nuclear Deterrence Health

economic policies by provincial Pakistan's nuclear
autonomy and the deterrence policy and its
need for effective implications for regional
inter-provincial security
cooperation.

potential of the Local governance Kashmir National

digital economy Integration
and technological challenges
advancements to Ethnic issues
drive economic
growth in Pakistan.

impact of climate Women

change on empowerment
Pakistan's +HDI index
environment and
economy, and
propose potential
solutions.

US–China Rivalry
The US–China rivalry has intensified since the late 2010s, evolving from a trade war into a
broad geopolitical and technological confrontation. In 2018 the US under President Trump
imposed steep tariffs on Chinese goods, and China retaliated, marking the start of a global trade
conflict. This trade war was followed by a tech war: the US banned exports of advanced
semiconductors and equipment to China (e.g. restrictions on Huawei’s chip supplyreuters.com),
while China accelerated domestic tech programs. Tensions over Taiwan have also escalated:
China conducts repeated military drills near the island (for example, in late 2022 and 2024 after
US/Taiwan diplomatic eventsreuters.comreuters.com) and warns of forceful reunification by
2027defense.gov. The US and its allies have responded by strengthening Indo-Pacific defenses
(the AUKUS submarine pact in 2021 and expanded QUAD cooperation in 2023) and reiterating
support for Taiwan’s self-defensereuters.comreuters.com. China, for its part, accuses the US of
aggressive containment (calling export-controls “abusive”reuters.com) and has bolstered its own
military: according to the US Defense Department, China is undertaking an “unprecedented
military buildup” of nuclear, conventional, cyber, and space forces aimed at dominating the
Indo-Pacificdefense.govdefense.gov.

Stakeholders in this rivalry include the United States and China at the center, but also Taiwan,
Japan, South Korea, Australia and India (the QUAD members) – all closely watching
Chinese assertiveness – as well as the ASEAN countries, which generally seek to balance
Chinese and US influence. China’s claims in the South China Sea involve several Southeast
Asian states (the Philippines, Vietnam, etc.), raising regional security issuesreuters.com.
The causes of this confrontation are both economic and strategic. China’s rapid economic rise
has brought it into competition with the US for markets and technology. Ideologically, the US and
China represent different political-economic models, leading to mistrust. Territorial and security
flashpoints – notably Taiwan’s status and China’s militarization of the South China Sea – are
immediate triggers. For example, the US and its allies regularly warn against “unilateral actions
seeking change in the status quo by force” in the regionreuters.com, while China perceives
Western alliances as encircling it.

The implications are global. Economically, decoupling is reshaping trade and investment:
companies are diversifying supply chains away from China or the US, and new trade pacts are
emerging (China-led RCEP vs US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework). Multilateral
institutions are strained as trust erodes. In security terms, the Asia-Pacific is seeing an arms
build-up. The QUAD has pledged to uphold stability in the face of Chinese
assertivenessreuters.com, and Chinese actions (e.g. coast-guard coercion of rival claimants)
have been labeled “illegal” and “destabilizing” by US military leadersreuters.com. This rivalry
has also affected climate and health cooperation and is a factor in larger alignment questions
(e.g. Japan’s and South Korea’s policies).

Pakistan’s stance has been to strategically balance its interests. Deeply linked to China (via
the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC) and dependent on Chinese investment,
Pakistan maintains a pro-China tilt, while also hedging diplomatically with other powers.
Analysts note Pakistan’s “hedging options are limited” by CPEC commitments and the legacy of
US engagement in Afghanistanasiamaior.org. Islamabad thus avoids overtly choosing sides. It
supports China’s core interests (e.g. one-China policy) and participates in Chinese-led forums,
while seeking to keep good ties with the US and Gulf states. In practice, Pakistan has quietly
welcomed Chinese investments and military cooperation, while neither endorsing Chinese
claims in ASEAN seas nor joining any explicit anti-China bloc.

Russia–Ukraine Conflict
The Russia–Ukraine conflict escalated dramatically over the past decade. In 2014 Russia
annexed Crimea and backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, provoking Western sanctions and a
standoff in Europe. The conflict remained frozen until February 2022, when Russia launched a
full-scale invasion of Ukraine. NATO responded by reinforcing its eastern flank and welcoming
Finland (April 2023) and soon Sweden into the alliancereuters.comreuters.com. Key turning
points include the 2014 Crimean annexation, the mid-2021 Russian troop build-up, the Feb 24
2022 invasion, and subsequent Russian offensives (e.g. in Donbas) and Ukrainian
counteroffensives. The NATO expansion itself is cited by Russian leaders as a cause: Putin had
long warned that any NATO military presence in Ukraine would cross a “red line”reuters.com.
Russia views Ukraine as within its historical sphere of influence and has used nationalist
rhetoric (“protecting Russian speakers”) to justify action. Ukraine and the West argue the true
cause is Russian aggression and revanchism. Other factors include Ukraine’s westward drift
(EU and NATO aspirations) and internal Russian politics.
Stakeholders include Russia and Ukraine directly, of course. Beyond them, NATO and the EU
have become heavily involved (militarily supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russia), as have
the United States. China has taken a more ambivalent stance (officially calling for peace but
not condemning Russiareuters.com). The Global South and many developing countries watch
closely; some (e.g. India, Brazil, South Africa) have avoided joining Western sanctions.
Energy-exporting states (Russia, OPEC members) and importing states (Europe, China,
India) are also stake­holders, as are arms producers globally.

Causes: The immediate trigger was the power struggle over Ukraine’s orientation. NATO
expansion toward Russia’s border (and discussion of Ukraine’s membership) was long cited by
Moscow as unacceptablereuters.com. More broadly, Russia’s current leadership under Putin
saw Ukraine’s 2014 Euromaidan turn to the West as a threat. Domestic factors include Russian
nationalism and Putin’s legitimacy. In Ukraine, a strong national identity and desire for
sovereignty also fueled resistance.

Implications have been profound. The conflict caused an energy crisis: Russia slashed gas
supplies to Europe, leading to skyrocketing prices and a scramble for alternatives. The IEA calls
the invasion “a massive shock to global energy markets”iea.org, and by early 2023 Russia’s
share of EU gas demand fell below 10%iea.org. Oil and wheat markets also spiked globally. A
new sanctions regime hit Russia’s finance and industry, while pushing it closer to China as a
customer (China doubled down on buying Russian energy at discountsreuters.com). The world
has seen heightened polarization: the West has largely united against Russia, while many
developing countries abstained on UN votes (even Pakistan abstained on a UN resolution
condemning the invasionjia.sipa.columbia.edu). The conflict has revived Cold-War-like tensions:
NATO has become more relevant again, defense budgets are up, and new arms deals are
flooding Ukraine. Global trade and investment patterns are shifting as firms avoid sanctions or
seek “friend-shoring.”

Pakistan’s stance has been one of cautious neutrality. Islamabad has neither condemned
Russia outright nor fully aligned with Western positions. Instead, Pakistan’s leaders have
consistently called for dialogue and diplomacy. For example, Pakistan emphasized respect for
international law and territorial integrity, and “called for an end to the
violence”jia.sipa.columbia.edu. Pakistan (along with India and Bangladesh) abstained from the
UN General Assembly vote demanding Russian withdrawaljia.sipa.columbia.edu, reflecting a
NAM/non-aligned approach. Economically, Pakistan is leveraging ties with Russia to alleviate its
own energy shortages: in 2023 it agreed to import discounted Russian crude oilreuters.com,
even as its foreign exchange reserves remain fragile. In sum, Pakistan urges a peaceful
resolution, seeks good relations with both NATO-aligned states and Russia, and pursues deals
(like the oil agreement) that serve its economic needs.

Middle East Dynamics (Gaza–Israel

Conflict)
The Israel–Palestine tension, especially the Gaza–Israel conflict, has long been volatile and
recently flared again. Key episodes include Israel’s wars on Gaza in 2008–09, 2012, 2014, and
2021 – each triggered by rocket fire from Gaza or other provocations. The latest and most
devastating was triggered on October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants from Gaza launched a
surprise assault into southern Israel, killing over 1,200 people (mostly civilians) and taking
hostagesaljazeera.com. Israel then declared war on Hamas. Through late 2024, intense Israeli
airstrikes and a ground campaign in Gaza killed tens of thousands of Palestiniansaljazeera.com.
The conflict has seen brief pauses (e.g. mid-2024 ceasefires), but no durable peace.
Chronologically: Gaza’s militants and Israel exchanged fire almost continuously; after the Oct
2023 attack, Israel imposed a total blockade and bombardment of Gaza, while Hamas (with
support from Iran) continued rocket barrages. Regional actors (Egypt, Qatar, the UN) repeatedly
mediated ceasefires.

Stakeholders are numerous. On one side, Israel and its government (now led by PM
Netanyahu) and military; on the other, Hamas (the Islamist rulers of Gaza) and allied militant
groups (Islamic Jihad, and indirectly Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who supply them). Also
involved are Palestinian Authority officials (in the West Bank), Iran (backer of Hamas and
Hezbollah), and Lebanon’s Hezbollah (front bordering Israel). The United States has been a
key external actor, traditionally supporting Israel’s security but also pushing for humanitarian
pauses. Arab states (Egypt, Jordan, Gulf monarchies) have mediated in the background; public
opinion in the Muslim world is heavily pro-Palestinian. The OIC (Organization of Islamic
Cooperation) has issued statements condemning Israeli actions and calling for Palestinian
rights.

Causes: The root causes lie in the long-standing Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories
since 1967, the expansion of Israeli settlements, and the blockade of Gaza (in place since 2007,
which Palestinians describe as collective punishmentreuters.com). The failure to achieve a
two-state solution has bred resentment. Hamas arose partly to oppose Israel and has used both
armed resistance and rocket attacks; Israel cites security and the need to neutralize Hamas
rocket threats. The specific 2023 trigger was multifaceted: it followed tensions over Al-Aqsa
Mosque in Jerusalem, the lack of political process, and perceived Israeli provocations. Each
flare-up also has immediate pretexts – e.g., exchanges of fire in Jerusalem or assassinations.
Essentially, decades of conflict and mistrust (and Hamas’s stance of not recognizing Israel)
continue to fuel periodic eruptions.

Implications are wide-ranging. Regionally, the Gaza war has endangered Middle East stability:
Israel and Iran traded threats, and Israel even struck targets in Iran. Fighting along the
Lebanese border with Hezbollah spilled over, risking a broader Israel–Iran war. The
humanitarian impact is dire: Gaza’s civilian infrastructure is devastated, and aid agencies warn
of famine; Palestinian health officials report tens of thousands killed or wounded (including many
children)reuters.com. Internationally, the conflict strains U.S. politics: President Biden,
traditionally a strong Israel supporter, has faced domestic pressure to push Israel toward
humanitarian relief and ceasefirereuters.com. Global public opinion is sharply divided, with
mass protests in Muslim-majority countries demanding a Palestinian state and censure of Israel.
Diplomatic forums (UN, Arab League, OIC) have seen intense debate. Economically, Gulf states
like Qatar and UAE (who have ties with Israel) are balancing support for Palestinians with new
Israeli relations. Overall, the conflict has underscored the enduring failure of the peace
process and made U.S. and EU mediation even more urgent.

Pakistan’s stance is firmly pro-Palestinian. Islamabad has no diplomatic ties with Israel and
consistently condemns Israeli military actions. Pakistani leaders have repeatedly called for
immediate ceasefires and relief for Gazans. For example, at an OIC meeting in mid-2024
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar “condemned Israel’s actions in the Gaza strip and called
for a ceasefire and better access for humanitarian aid”reuters.com. Pakistan’s premier and
parliament have both expressed solidarity with the Palestinian cause, echoed demands for a
two-state solution, and supported Arab-led reconstruction plans. In international forums,
Pakistan co-sponsored resolutions backing Palestinian rights. In short, Pakistan provides moral
and diplomatic backing to Palestinians (and Hamas as an organization representing Gaza),
demands that Israel honor ceasefire agreementsreuters.com, and welcomes Arab efforts at
Gaza reconstruction. Pakistan also urges its own public and media to support Palestine,
aligning with widespread domestic sentiment in the Muslim world.

Pakistan’s Political Landscape

The post-2024 election period in Pakistan has been turbulent. The February 2024 general
election produced a hung parliament: the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) led by
Shehbaz Sharif won the most seats (80) but not a majority, while the Pakistan Peoples Party
(PPP) won 54, and Imran Khan’s PTI was barred from contest under its party name. Dozens of
pro-Imran independents (reportedly 90) won seatsreuters.comreuters.com. After intense
negotiation, PML-N and PPP agreed to form a coalition. By mid-February, Shehbaz Sharif was
nominated as prime ministerial candidate for the alliancereuters.com. The two parties combined
commands a bare majority (134 of 266 seats)reuters.com. Their stated aim is to “take Pakistan
out of crisis” and stabilize the economyreuters.com. Thus the civilian political leadership
transitioned from a PTI-dominated to a PML-N–PPP coalition government.

Civil-military relations and PTI–establishment dynamics remain a central issue. The

powerful Army, which wields significant influence, publicly praised the election as
well-conducted and urged the country to unite under “stable hands” after months of
unrestreuters.com. Behind the scenes, however, a confrontation continues between PTI and the
military-led establishment. Former PM Imran Khan (PTI’s leader) openly accuses the generals
and intelligence services of trying to “destroy” his partyreuters.com. Over the year, thousands of
PTI activists were arrested or pursued in military courts on charges related to violent protests
and alleged attacks on military sites; many released detainees say they were pressured to
resign from PTIreuters.com. PTI officials have described this as a “full-blown campaign to
dismantle” the partyreuters.com. Several high-profile PTI figures (ministers, spokespersons)
were detained repeatedly and then announced retirements or party resignations under duress.
In effect, PTI has been largely sidelined: its leaders remain in custody or exile, while
PML-N/PPP handle governance. The military leadership under General Asim Munir has
asserted influence (for instance, overseeing security during the elections) but now publicly
supports the new civilian government’s stability.

The constitutional order and judiciary are also in flux. In October 2024, the ruling coalition
pushed through a controversial constitutional amendment allowing parliament (via a special
committee) to effectively choose the next Chief Justicereuters.com. Critics called this an attempt
to undermine judicial independence. Indeed, Pakistan’s Supreme Court had recently intervened
on key political matters (annulling some election results, questioning proposed military trials of
Imran Khan) and was seen as a check on the government. The amendment’s promoters
(including PM Shehbaz) argued it was needed to curb past judicial overreach (citing previous
court ousters of prime ministers)reuters.com. This episode highlights ongoing tension between
the executive/legislature and the judiciary. Combined with PTI’s legal challenges to the election,
there is concern about erosion of democratic norms and rule of law.

Other stakeholders in Pakistan’s landscape include the judiciary (whose verdicts on elections
and disqualifications shape politics), and civil society and media (which remain vocal despite
pressures). So far there has been no new military coup or suspension of the constitution, but the
balance of power among military, judiciary, and parliament continues to be a delicate issue. The
implications of this domestic situation are significant: governance will require coalition
cohesion in the face of economic woes (inflation, IMF negotiations), and foreign investors may
remain wary of instability. Pakistan’s foreign credibility depends on demonstrating democratic
continuity; any slide back toward authoritarianism would alarm Western partners. Regionally, a
stable Pakistan is needed for projects like CPEC and for addressing Afghan spillover. Thus
Islamabad officially endorses the coalition government and promises continuity in foreign policy
– while critics warn that unresolved PTI–army frictions and institutional changes could heighten
political uncertainty.

Global Alliances (BRICS+, Quad, SCO)

The global order is now marked by emerging blocs and coalitions that reflect the East–West
competition. On one side are Western-led groupings like NATO and the Quad; on the other
are Eastern/developing-world blocs like BRICS+ and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO).

●​ BRICS+: Originally five (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), BRICS expanded in
2023 by inviting six new members (Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia,
Argentina)reuters.com. This was hailed by leaders (e.g. China’s Xi) as a “historic” step to
reshape the world order and empower developing countriesreuters.com. BRICS aims to
be a counterweight to the Western-dominated system: it talks of creating alternative
financial institutions and promoting a multipolar world. Pakistan has signaled keen
interest – in late 2023 it officially applied to join BRICS as a full member, saying it wants
“to play an important role in ... inclusive multilateralism”thediplomat.com. (India’s
presence makes Islamabad’s bid sensitive.) The expansion of BRICS underscores a
 shared grievance among many members: that institutions like the IMF or World Bank
are outdated. The implication is a potential realignment of trade and finance: for
example, talks of paying in local currencies or creating a common BRICS currency
reserve.​

●​ Quad: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (US, Japan, India, Australia) has evolved into
a key forum for Indo-Pacific security cooperation. It explicitly commits to “an open, stable
and prosperous Indo-Pacific”dfat.gov.au. Quad leaders in 2023 pledged to oppose
“unilateral actions…by force” and to uphold ASEAN centralityreuters.com. Its working
groups cover not just defense but also technology, infrastructure, and supply chain
resilience. The Quad is often seen by China as part of a containment strategy (and it is
frequently tied to AUKUS by analysts). In practice, it has increased military exercises
and logistics cooperation in the region.​

●​ SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization): A Eurasian security and economic bloc

led by China and Russia (with India, Pakistan and Central Asian states). It originated to
combat terrorism and promote connectivity. Pakistan is an active SCO member: it
hosted the 2024 SCO heads-of-government summit in Islamabad, which brought China’s
Premier Li Qiang and other leaders to Pakistanreuters.com. SCO engagement reinforces
Pakistan’s ties with China (security cooperation and support for CPEC projects like
Gwadar Airport) and gives Islamabad a voice in Central Asian affairs. The SCO’s recent
expansion (2017’s full membership for India/Pakistan and 2023’s admission of Iran)
shows it becoming more influential as an “Eastern bloc” platform.​

The causes of these alliance dynamics include strategic competition and regional security
realignments. Western powers seek to “decouple” from competitors (hence US pivot to Asia,
technology coalitions, NATO expansion), while China and Russia counter by deepening their
own partnerships. Economic blocs (BRICS, SCO, RCEP vs CPTPP or IPEF) reflect attempts to
secure trade and finance under favorable terms. In short, countries are clustering to safeguard
interests amid great-power rivalry.

Implications include the crystallization of a new Cold War-like division. We are seeing pressure
on global institutions: for example, proposals to reform the IMF, or to denominate more trade in
non-dollar currencies. Multilateral forums may become split between West-leaning and
East-leaning coalitions. Smaller states face pressure to choose sides or juggle alignments.
However, these blocs also offer countries like Pakistan opportunities: for instance, the BRICS
expansion and SCO give Islamabad access to markets and funding outside the Western
system. At the same time, tension rises: the US and China are competing for influence in South
Asia (e.g. via IPEF or infrastructure packages vs BRI and SCO).

Pakistan’s position in this new architecture is pragmatic. It is fully engaged in the SCO,
seeing it as compatible with its China-anchored foreign policy. It has hosted SCO meetings and
emphasizes the organization’s role in regional connectivity. In contrast, Pakistan is not a
member of the Quad (which it views as aligned with India and potentially anti-China) and
approaches it with caution. On BRICS, Pakistan is an interested observer/aspirant: it formally
applied to join BRICSthediplomat.com, hoping to benefit from economic partnerships. Pakistan
also participates in other multilateral groupings (like the Islamic Organization of Turkic States
and ECO) but its main international engagement is through China-led frameworks. Overall,
Pakistan tries to remain nonaligned between Western and Eastern blocs, but its commitments
(CPEC, debt, and military aid) indicate a tilt toward China/Russia groupings.

Conflic Stakeh Timeline (Key Causes Implications Pakistan’s

t/Issue olders Turning Points) Position

US–Chi US, 2018: US–China Economic Increased trade Pakistan hedges by

na China, trade war begins rivalry friction and deepening China
Rivalry Taiwan, (tariffs on $B of (China’s supply-chain ties (e.g. CPEC)
Japan, goods). 2019–22: growth vs shifts; while maintaining
S. Tech war US fragmentation relations with US
Korea, escalates (Huawei markets/tec of global and others. It
Australi bans, chip h), technology officially supports
a, India controls). 2022: ideological/ standards; one-China policy
(Quad), Nancy Pelosi visits political militarization of but avoids military
ASEAN Taiwan; China differences Indo-Pacific; entanglements.
countri holds war games. (democracy risk of conflict Analysts note
es 2021–2023: US vs over Taiwan; Pakistan’s ability to
(esp. forms AUKUS; authoritaria pressure on balance is limited
Philippi Quad summits n regional by CPEC and past
nes, commit to capitalism), security US
Vietna Indo-Pacific security architectures. linksasiamaior.org.
m) stabilityreuters.co flashpoints
mreuters.com; (Taiwan’s
Chinese PLA status,
increases drills South
(e.g. around China Sea
Taiwan)reuters.co militarizatio
mreuters.com. n).
Russia Russia, 2014: Russia NATO’s Massive Pakistan maintains
–Ukrain Ukraine annexes Crimea, eastward disruption of neutrality. It
e War , NATO sparks sanctions. expansion global energy abstains on UN
(US, Feb 2022: Russia (Russian (European gas votes, urges peace
EU, invades Ukraine. “red line” cut in half by talks and law
UK, 2022–23: NATO not to early (calling for
Turkey, boosts forces; include 2023iea.org, oil diplomacy)jia.sipa.c
etc.), Finland joins Ukraine)reu price shocks); olumbia.edu. It has
US, NATO (Apr ters.com; deep sanctions pursued energy
China, 2023)reuters.comr Russian regime isolating deals with Russia,
India, euters.com; desire to Russia; revival agreeing to import
Global sanctions intensify; keep of NATO and discounted Russian
South major battles (Kyiv, Ukraine in defense oilreuters.com.
Donbas); global its sphere; spending; Pakistan avoids
energy prices Ukrainian global trade taking sides,
surge. 2023–24: Western realignments; focusing on its own
Ongoing warfare; orientation; geopolitical economic interests
peace talks stall; nationalist polarization and stability.
Finland/Sweden in sentiments (some Global
NATO. on both South stay
sides. neutral)iea.orgr
euters.com.

Gaza–I Israel, 2008–09:

srael Hamas Operation Cast
Conflic (Gaza), Lead. 2012: Pillar
t Palesti of Defense. 2014:
nian Operation
Authorit Protective Edge.
y (West 2021: May conflict
Bank), (11 days). Oct 7,
Iran, 2023: Hamas
Hezboll attacks Israel
ah (≈1,200
(Leban killed)aljazeera.co
on), m. Oct 2023–May
US, 2024: Israel’s
Egypt, massive Gaza war
Qatar, (Israeli strikes kill
Jordan, tens of thousands
OIC in
Gaza)aljazeera.co
m. Mediated
ceasefires
 (Egypt/Qatar)
intermittent.

PAK INDIA RELATIONS

-Pahlgham 22 April- 26 tourist dead
​ May 7- operation Sindhoor
> 24 impacts were reported in six localities; 33 Pakistani civilians slain, 76 injured

> India launched air-to-ground missiles on three airbases on early May 10; Pakistan launched
‘Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos’ in retaliation; ceasefire came into effect following US mediation
at 4:30pm same day

India must rethink

https://www.dawn.com/news/1909971/india-must-rethink

> Neelum-Jhelum hydel works.

> Indian policymakers to avoid prolonging their actions as the political, social and economic
costs for their own country are substantial, and instead, examine their policy stance
dispassionately.

> India ranks fifth among global economies

> economy by 2047, with the size of its economy projected to range between $23-35
trillion.
working hard to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council- expanding role of
BRICS.

> 2001-02 stand-off, when Indian policymakers made sensible decisions and withdrew from the
path of prolonged confrontation.

economic costs of military adventures,

> daily cost of mobilising operations could reach $670 million with broader economic losses
potentially reaching $17.8 billion- 20 per cent GDP contraction over four weeks of conflict

Defence spending:
> $78.7bn in the FY25 budget for defence

> country where 800m people still receive subsidised food ration

Global capability centres

> 1,800 offshore corporate offices owned by hundreds of foreign-based MNCs operate in
India; they generated earnings of $65bn in 2024

Tourism:
> 10m tourists every year recording a growth rate of 20pc, contributing $30bn in foreign
exchange earnings- 20pc annual growth in tourism may be lost.

Financial markets:

> External capital flows, FDI, foreign portfolio investment, external commercial borrowings,
nonresident Indian deposits and workers’ remittances have contributed to the build-up of large
foreign exchange reserves and financed the large excess of capital flows over and above those
required to finance the current account deficit.

> Foreign investors own about $800bn worth of Indian stocks

> roughly 16pc of India’s market cap.

Foreign direct investment

> India is one of the major recipients of FDI with a cumulative amount of $1.05tr.

> Indus Waters Treaty:

> WT’s unilateral abeyance is hardly justifiable on moral and legal grounds. Given the growing
hazards of climate change the two countries along with China and Bangladesh should negotiate
an arrangement where food security, water availability and the energy needs of the lower
riparian countries are ensured

Karachi Agreement of 1949 (which was abandoned by both nations) to bring

about a ceasefire in Kashmir, while another notable example of mediation is
the Tashkent Declaration, signed on Jan 10, 1966, following the
India-Pakistani war of 1965. Brokered by the Soviet Union and the US, the
declaration led to a ceasefire and an agreement to restore diplomatic ties,
exchange prisoners of war and improve bilateral relations. The 2003 ceasefire
agreement also marked a significant milestone in de-escalation efforts.

Saudi Relations
Saudi Arabia had appeared to take a more proactive stance- seeking to
position itself as a global mediator and a stabilising force in regional and
international conflicts.

Apart from Saudi Arabia, the UAE is also interested in gaining a foothold in
regional and global politics. The UAE played a key role in brokering a ceasefire
between India and Pakistan in 2021, which halted cross-border skirmishes
that had been ongoing since 2019.

National Issues

Balochistan
The term ‘Fitna al Hindu­stan’ is a new phrase coined by Pakistan’s military,
aimed at framing India’s alleged role in terrorism as a deliberate
destabilisation strategy, potentially to galvanise domestic support.

State Institutions
# Privatising PIA as going concern?
- Between FY2013-14 and 2018-19, the top 10 loss-making SOEs accumulated losses of more
than Rs2.1 trillion, with the government having provided them Rs2.5tr between 2018 and 2021,
including a subsidy of Rs1tr.
- PIA,
- has an accumulated loss of Rs713 billion (growing in excess of Rs150bn per annum), having
lost $7.1bn since 2012.

Elections
# The making of manifestos, Ahmed Bilal Mehbood, dawn.

- Bottom-up consultative process

- Informed manifestos:
- Manifesto, not a mere wish list:
- Provincial manifestos:
- Monitoring progress of manifestos:
- Checklist of key issues

Human Development Crisis

- The World Bank calls it a “silent, deep human capital crisis”.- recent report Pakistan Human
Capital Review
- According to UNDP’s Global Human Development Report of 2022, Pakistan’s Human
Development Index rank remains at 161 out of 192 countries with no progress recorded from
2019 to 2022.
The WB report places Pakistan in the company of sub-Saharan African countries in the Human
Capital Index, which at 0.41, is the lowest in South Asia.
- Pakistan’s HCI level in 2020 was 0.41, which means that a child born in Pakistan will be only
41 per cent as productive as she could be when she grows up if she enjoyed complete
education and full health. Pakistan fares very poorly in comparison to the 130 countries for
which the World Bank prepared the HCI. It ranks 118 and its HCI is the lowest in South Asia,
which has an HCI average of 0.48.

The 2023/2024 Report places Pakistan in the ‘low’ human development category with a
Human Development Index (HDI) value of 0.540 and global ranking of 164 out of 193
countries. In the 2021/2022 Report Pakistan had a Human Development Index (HDI)
value of 0.544 with a global ranking of 161 out of 191 countries.
- a major human capital catastrophe

# Human capital development

- economist Julian Simon, “the ultimate resource is people — especially skilled, spirited, and
hopeful young people endowed with liberty — who will exert their wills and imaginations for their
own benefits, and so inevitably they will benefit the rest of us as well”.

- Allama Iqbal said, “While you are still immature, you are a heap of dust; When you ripen, you
will become an irresistible sword.
-- 2.1pc of GDP in FY18 to 1.7pc in FY23

Population
Census was started on 1st March, 2023 and has counted 241.49 million people across
Pakistan with a growth rate of 2.55 % as reported by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
# Pakistan’s population problem | The Express Tribune

- The quality of human resources determines the destiny and direction of a country
- A double-edged sword, the population of a society can be an asset or a liability — or both
- Despite potential demography with a whopping 64% of the youth population, the country
failed to capitalise on its human capital.
- he current annual growth rate of nearly 2%, the highest in South Asia, the country is
estimated to witness a 56% increase with 366 million people in 2050 — indeed an alarming
situation.
- government’s will and pragmatic population planning;
1.​ increasing contraceptive prevalence;
2.​ engaging religious scholars and realistic interpretation of religion;
3.​ increasing literacy and women’s education;
4.​ checking the practice of child marriages and debunking traditional myths;
5.​ ensuring implementation of limited child policies and rewarding the same;
6.​ increasing public places and recreational activities;
7.​ disseminating awareness through media; creating opportunities;
8.​ and engaging youth in the national affairs would go a long way in building a balanced
and proficient population in the country.
Education

out of school world’s second-highest Twelve million are girls

number of children, over 20
million (aged five to 16).

14 of 195 countries spend over 40pc of the population

less on education than are illiterate.
Pakistan

violates the constitutional set out in Article 25A that

obligation enjoins the state to “provide
free and compulsory
education to all children of
the age of five to 16 years”.

Pakistan Demographic and half of women in the age According to the Pakistan
Health Survey 2017-18 group 15-25 are uneducated. Economic Survey, FY23,
61pc of rural women are expenditure on education
illiterate. was only 1.7pc of GDP, and
health 1.4pc.

Poverty

in FY23, have risen by five percentage with 12.5m more people

points to 39.4pc pushed into poverty as
compared to the previous
year
- poverty rate has risen from
34.2pc to 39.4pc in just one
year.
Health
Budget Allocation According to the Pakistan
Economic Survey, FY23,
expenditure on education
was only 1.7pc of GDP, and
health 1.4pc.

Stunt Growth 40pc of Pakistani children - Stunting is worse in Sindh

under five are stunted — a where it is 50pc of under-five
shocking number. children and in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa where it is
- 48pc.
- HCR report

- HCR report

Malnutrition - Ninety-three out of 100 Only 62 out of 100 children

children born in Pakistan aren’t stunted. Thirty-eight
survive to age five out of 100 are at risk of
- cognitive and physical
limitations that can last a
lifetime.

Pakistan Economic Survey, According to the Pakistan

FY23, Economic Survey, FY23,
expenditure on education
was only 1.7pc of GDP, and
health 1.4pc.
Gender
-​ WW2 Germany- 4 million women molested by western armies- Later Marshall
Plan and exploitation of women.
Human Development Pakistan is ranked 161 out of
Report’s (2022) Gender 191 countries.
Inequality Index

Conflict situations According to UNHCR, out of After the adoption of

90 Million girls- affected the 80m people displaced Resolution 1325 by the UN
worldwide, half are women Security Council, globally,
and children there has been a growing
interest in including women in
conflict resolution and peace
talks, with representation
increasing from 1pc in 1999
to 9pc in 2011.

Peace Process According to UN Women, -​ seven of every 10

between 1992 and 2019, peace processes did
women represented, on not include women
average, 13pc of all mediators or
negotiators, 6pc of mediators, signatories.
and 6pc of signatories in - According to UN Women, in
significant peace processes 2020, women were
worldwide represented in only 23pc of
the delegations in
UN-supported peace
processes

Health- According to UN Women, 60 - UNFPA report for 2021, in

Mal nutrition per cent of preventable Yemen, a woman dies in
maternal deaths occur childbirth every two hours, on
globally in “fragile settings average, due to poor health
where political conflict, facilities. Over 1m pregnant
displacement, and natural and breastfeeding women
disasters prevail” there are said to be
malnourished.
 Violence In 2020, the UN confirmed
2,500 cases of sexual
violence in 18 countries,
mostly against women.

Women
Conflict and women (Muhammad Ali Babakhel)

- nearly 90 million girls live in conflict zones worldwide

- According to UNHCR, out of the 80m people displaced worldwide, half are women and
children

- In 2020, the UN confirmed 2,500 cases of sexual violence in 18 countries, mostly against
women.
- After the adoption of Resolution 1325 by the UN Security Council, globally, there has been a
growing interest in including women in conflict resolution and peace talks, with representation
increasing from 1pc in 1999 to 9pc in 2011. According to UN Women, between 1992 and 2019,
women represented, on average, 13pc of all negotiators, 6pc of mediators, and 6pc of
signatories in significant peace processes worldwide
- However, seven of every 10 peace processes did not include women mediators or signatories.
- According to UN Women, in 2020, women were represented in only 23pc of the delegations in
UN-supported peace processes

Economy
# Will Pakistan’s IMF agreement save its economy?

- International Monetary Fund’s board approved a $3bn bailout programme

- Immediate disbursal of about $1.2bn to help stabilise the South Asian country’s economy.
- a short-term pact, which got more funding than expected for the country of 230 million facing
an acute balance of payments crisis.
- bailout had been on hold
- release a critical $1.1bn part of the loan because of the country’s lack of compliance with a
2019 agreement signed between the IMF and former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
- strict conditions when it comes to spending and structural reforms that are likely to further
increase economic hardship for many common people.
- balance of payments crisis as it attempted to service high levels of external debt and crushing
inflation.
- Country’s foreign reserves were teetering at around $4bn,- a month’s worth of imports,
- country needs at least $20bn in the next two years to pay back foreign loans with interest.
- rupee dove to a historic low against the US dollar
Pakistan, Congressman Scott Perry alleged that USAID spent $840 million on
education-related programmes in the last 20 years, including $136m to build
120 schools. He stated that there is zero evidence any single school was
actually built. These revelations are startling and need to be substantiated.

- Global rating agency Moody’s cut Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating by two notches to
‘Caa3’, saying the country’s increasingly fragile liquidity “significantly raises default risks”
- Express Tribune, more than 750,000 people left Pakistan in 2022, a threefold increase from
the previous year.
- catastrophic floods of last year caused a loss of some $30bn to the economy,
- revising its 2023-24 budget and raising its policy rate to 22 percent in recent weeks.
- got Pakistan to raise more than 385 billion Pakistani rupees ($1.34bn) in new taxation to
meet the IMF’s fiscal adjustments.
- adjustments have already fuelled all-time high inflation of 38 percent year-on-year in May,
the highest in Asia.
- reforms in the energy sector, which has accumulated nearly 3.6 trillion Pakistani rupees
($12.58bn) in debt, have been a cornerstone of the IMF talks.
- encourage other international financial institutions to help Islamabad overcome economic
challenges
- approval for the IMF loan came a day after Saudi Arabia deposited $2bn into Pakistan’s central
bank
- United Arab Emirates also deposited $1bn into the central bank
- Gallup reported that some 62 percent of people in the country blamed the PDM for
Pakistan’s economic woes.

# IMF deal: a boon and a burden

- second $700 million tranche

- he IMF obligates the government to implement stabilisation policies, leading to increased
taxes, levies, elevated energy rates and reduced development spending.
- IMF approved a nine-month $3bn bailout package for Pakistan, fuel, electricity and gas prices
have risen, contributing to crushingly high inflation and unemployment rates.
- petrol and diesel prices increased
- electricity and gas tariffs
- fell from 38 per cent in May to under 27pc in October,
- The SIFC is a pragmatic solution to government decision-making fragmentation and red
tape.

# Govt urged to revive five-year development planning

- Vision 2025. Adopted in 2011, it is largely an aspirational document covering seven

development pillars with their respective goals. It does not identify the main investment projects,
their costs, or their contribution to achieving these goals.
- The lack of medium-term planning document means that in practice, there is a missing link
between the annual budget, investment plans and the objectives of Vision 2025,” the IMF said.

# SIFC: Catalyst for Pakistan’s economic prosperity - Pakistan Observer

- Pakistan Stock Exchange

- milestone of 59,000 points and reaching an all-time high
- potential reduction of the interest rate by seven percentage points to 15% by the end of
December 2024. This decrease would be significant, considering the current record high rate of
22%.
-S IFC initiative has been implemented to address the issue of dollar hoarding and smuggling,
which has resulted in the continuous appreciation of Pakistan’s national currency.
- primary objectives of the SIFC is to attract investment from friendly nations.
- ADB has approved a $250 million loan to enhance the power transmission network in
Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, which will stabilize the national grid and reduce
transmission losses
- Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the World Bank will co-finance
Pakistan’s second Resilient Institutions for Sustainable Economy (Rise-II) program with a
$600 million loan, aiming to improve fiscal management and regulatory conditions that support
growth and competitiveness.

# ‘SIFC’ termed ‘game-changer’ in relation to FDI prospects

- SIFC will comprise top leadership of both the government and the armed forces - and, will
have apex, executive and implementation committees
- red tapism; dealing with numerous licensing and regulatory authorities and
inconsistency in economic and investment policies.
- SIFC will focus on defense production; agriculture; mines and minerals, energy sector,
and IT industry; with a target of $100 billion in FDI within a short span of three years
- penultimate goal is to reach $1 trillion in terms of nominal GDP by fiscal year 2035
- ull-fledged technical and strategic support to SIFC to pave the way for the seamless
functioning of the council.
- IT is one industry which plays a catalytic role for all the other industries through automation,
digitalization, business process reengineering (BPR), artificial intelligence (AI) and bringing the
operations of other industries at par with international best practices

# Economic Challenges Faced by Pakistan in 2023 - Paradigm Shift

- Paul Krugman, an American economist, “Productivity is not everything, but, in the long run, it is
almost everything.’’
- stand at US$31.55 billion, which is far below its true potential of US$88.1 billion.
- poor performance of the export sector is that it is highly concentrated in a few items; cotton
manufacturers, leather, and rice form almost 70% of Pakistan’s total exports
- he country’s export sector is primarily being driven by the low-tech, low-end textile industry.
- more than half of Pakistan’s export earnings come from labor-intensive and
light-manufacturing products;
- South Asian region, for instance, the country’s trade potential with the region is $67 billion, but
it is only being captured up to $23 billion.
- India could be a significant trading partner in terms of export destination for Pakistan, as the
trade potential between the countries is $37 billion, but only $2.3 billion is being utilized
- Pakistan has been slow in catching up with this development, as only 33.2% of the country’s
exports are involved in the global value chains.
- Reforms in the Agriculture Sector
- productivity of our major crops’ yield needs to be enhanced, as it has remained consistently
less than half as productive as that of other countries.
- efficient distribution of water through a properly mechanized and modern irrigation system
must be done.
- digital inclusion of farmers
- policy reform is M-Kilimo, which is a mobile helpline in Kenya;
- vertical farming on a larger scale in order to enhance its production on smaller land holdings
- invest in rural infrastructure, as well as in better seed and soil research, and soil testing.
- Revitalizing Industrial Sector
- extile sector is the only backbone of the country’s industrial sector
- more than 60%
- simplify and ease its regulatory processes
- Singapore, a country that has one of the world’s most favorable regulatory environments
- dual education’ system
- ducation along with on-the-job training is practiced equipping the individuals with essential
knowledge and skills.
- energy crisis has remained a persistent bottleneck
- upgrade the transmission and distribution network to improve the efficiency and conservation
of the energy sector.
- Improvement in the Services Sector
- services sector has the largest share of the country’s GDP; the service value-added being
more than 50% of the country’s GDP
- Building human capital is the key to the growth of the services sector, and therefore,
investment needs to be made in education and skill building.
- growing problem of young population
- short-term degrees or courses that would focus on the skills that have high demand
internationally.

# Energy Crisis in Pakistan and Its Solution - Paradigm Shift

Energy Crisis in Pakistan and Its Solution

- The National Power Policy 2013

- The policy aimed to develop a power production, transmission, and distribution system that
was effective and could fulfill the requirements of the populace while boosting the economy of
the nation in a cost-effective and sustainable way.
- Power Generation Policy 2015 The fundamental goal of the policy was to have enough
cheapest available power production capacity while emphasizing the use of domestic resources,
enabling all parties engaged in the trade, and protecting the environment. Alternative and
Renewable Energy Policy 2019 The major objective of the 2019 policy was to encourage and
support the nation’s development of renewable resources.
- Reasons for the Looming Energy Crisis in Pakistan
- conflict between Ukraine and Russia has caused fuel prices to soar, endangering the supply
chain
- ever-changing leadership and political turmoil and an unwillingness to address the problem
and devise a solution
- absence of coordination that prevents the implementation of any kind of comprehensive or
integrated energy policy
- at a staggering 2.5 trillion Pakistani rupees, the circular debt is 10% more than it was in
the previous fiscal year. By 2025, it is anticipated to reach 4 trillion Pakistani rupees,
- severe financial load, this is putting on our meager foreign exchange reserves, OGDCL, and
PPL are unable to expand into new markets since their revenue is caught in a vicious circle of
debt.
- Decreasing gas supply and dependence on oil Unrealistic power tariffs (low investments) Low
payment recovery Inefficient revenue collection Overpopulation, over usage
- Impact of Energy Crisis on Pakistan
- Textiles are the industry most impacted.
- 60% of the nation’s exports, has been negatively impacted by the electricity deficit.
- Pakistan, like China and Japan, also generates its power from imported fossil fuels out of
which 48% is natural gas and 33% is oil.
- wave of transformation into alternative and renewable energy from conventional energy
production methods by the year 2030 is underway.
- Denmark is one of the unique countries that have taken itself to a highly ambitious target of
shifting to 100% renewable energy resources by the year 2050.
- Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy in 2019.

International Issue (Heading 1)

Climate
Pakistan generates approximately 49.6 million tons of solid waste a year, increasing more
than 2.4 percent annually. Pakistan lacks waste management infrastructure like other
developing countries, creating serious environmental problems

# Long road ahead

- floods of 2022 not only displaced over 10 million people in Sindh

- Provincial Disaster Management Authority’s (PDMA) situation report released in April counts
over 2m houses damaged (including 1.4m that collapsed altogether), 436,435 perished livestock
heads and 3.7m acres of swamped crop area.

# Course correction (Dawn)

- In its 17 findings, the report points out “well-known gaps”, such as the insufficiency of
mitigation ambition to collectively achieve the Paris Agreement, fragmentation, incrementality
and the unequal regional distribution of adaptation efforts, and lack of rigorous accountability of
actions by non-party stakeholders.
- To bridge these gaps, the report calls for a whole-of-society approach, integrated and inclusive
policymaking for long-term strategies for carbon-resilient and low-emission development,
scaling-up renewable energy, and the unabated phasing out of fossil fuels.
-concrete steps at COP28 for operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund.
- Countries will have to set more ambitious targets in their upcoming Nationally Determined
Contributions to reduce global GHG emissions by 43 per cent by 2030 and reach net zero by
2050.

-​ Pacific Resilience Partnership supports project development,

networking, and coordination to access climate finance. These resources
and facilities could be leveraged by Pakistan to improve its access to
climate finance. However, what is missing and is earnestly needed is to
adopt a comprehensive approach and put concrete efforts into fixing
technical, institutional, and other gaps which impede Pakistan’s
progress vis-à-vis climate finance.

Libya Case
# Lessons from Libya(Dawn)

- Climate change, protracted violence, lack of governance, ramshackle infrastructure and

corruption coalesced to unleash a nightmare.
- Claudia Gazzini, a senior Libya analyst for the International Crisis Group said “for the past 10
years, there hasn’t really been much investment in the country’s infrastructure. For the past
three years there has been no development budget, which is where funds for infrastructure
should fall, and no allocation for long-term projects”
- Libya’s audit bureau reported in 2021 that 2.3 million euros (670m in Pakistani rupees) were
allocated by the water resources ministry to maintain the dam. A company had been contracted
for the project, but it was never executed.
- The tragedy of Libya is a grim reminder for Pakistan and other countries that the
consequences of climate change are exacerbated by conflicts, bad governance, corruption and
neglected infrastructure
ASIA
Five Regions.

Lens to look over a conflict

International Conflicts
Africa
-​ In 2017, France formed the Sahel Alliance along with Germany and the European
Union, with the stated aim of finding more effective ways to coordinate aid and
build stronger institutions in the so-called G5 Sahel – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali,
Mauritania and Niger – countries, all former French colonies
Nigeria- Burkina Faso, Gabon, Mali, Chad- recent coups since 2020
●​ Common Themes
Civilian Governments were not delivering. Poorest Countries
○​ Niger- Mali (Uranium)- Guinea- Burkina Faso (Gold and other mines)- Chad-
Gabon (Oil)---Wealth not reaching ordinary people
○​ Economic stagnation- insecurity + Corruption
Insecurity
●​ 43% deaths from terrorism in SAHEL Region in 2022. Armed group violence
extreme.
The Anti- French sentiment
●​ Exploitation not stopped- neo-colonialism
●​ French companies heavily involved in mining of minerals
●​ French boots on the ground- counter terrrorism- situation worsened
Growing Support for Russia
●​ Vacuum being filled by Russia- alternative partnership to west
●​ Wagner Group-governments with soldiers- logging company- information and
communication.
Domestic Issues in each country

South Asia
Afghanistan (Heading 2)
# Afghan refugees and Pakistan’s predicaments | The Express Tribune

- displaced people.
- otal number of Afghans living in Pakistan, according to the UNHCR, was 3.7 million.
- Pakistan’s database, the figure is close to 4.4 million.
- Pakistan the largest refugee-hosting country in the world.
- every demand made to the Afghan Taliban to put a curb on the TTP activities, Pakistan was
asked to “look inward”
- destabilising Pakistan’s security machinery
- network of smugglin
- Since August 2021, at least 16 Afghan nationals have carried out suicide attacks inside
Pakistan while 65 terrorists, killed in encounters with security forces mainly in the bordering
region, were identified as Afghans.
- Pakistan has not asked the 1.46 million Afghans with proof of registration cards and the
800,000 or so individuals holding Afghan citizen cards to return.
- Pakistan’s decision to “repatriate” and not “deport” the Afghans
- 93% of those who have returned to Afghanistan have done so voluntarily
- safe and dignified exit to the illegal Afghans.
- 79 transit centres were set up
- Emergency helplines

●​ In Afghanistan, 4 major groups exist. • Population wise: 46%+ Pashtun, 27%+ Tajik,
16%+ Hazara and 7%+ Uzbek exist.

Afghanistan’s record opium production accounted for 93 percent of the entire world supply, and
shows no signs of slowing. Opium production accounts for nearly 40 percent of the entire
Afghan economy, meaning that hundreds of thousands of Afghans—mostly poor farmers—are
relying on the trade. The scale of this problem is unprecedented and will require a very
long-term approach if we hope to wean the Afghan economy from the trade. (USIP)

Stakeholders (Heading 3)
Interests of various parties

Afghanistan and Baclochistan- Located on strategic choke point: The mouth of Persian Gulf–
Route of most oil super tankers (Map)

-​ RUSSIA (DURING THE WAR ON AFGHANISTAN TO SUPPORT THE COMMUNIST

GOVERNMENT)
 -​ Access to the warm water of the Pacific and Middle East Region.
-​ Present Proxy war involvement in the Middle East.
-​ Counterbalance US Hegemony
-​ Global profits from Arms trade. 2nd largest after the US. (The United States’
share of global arms exports increased from 33 to 40 per cent while Russia’s fell
from 22 to 16 per cent, according to new data on global arms transfers. SIPRI)
-​ UNITED STATES (TRYING TO END TALIBAN AND BRING STABILITY IN THE
REGION)
-​ Counter Russia- block its access to pacific warm waters
-​ Control over South- Asia to contain China and Russia
-​ Indo-Pacific conflict
-​ Economic interests-
-​ Oil Hegemony maintained- Link to dollarization.
-​ Drug trade and war weapons.
-​ Largest global arm trader. (US arms exports increased by 14 per cent
between 2013–17 and 2018–22, and the USA accounted for 40 percent of
global arms exports in 2018–22. Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute SIPRI. )
-​ THE LOCAL TRIBAL LEADERS (MUJAHIDEEN OR WARLORDS) + THE TALIBAN
(MEANING ‘STUDENTS’ IN PASHTU)
-​ CIA- backed. Proliferated by Madrassas in Pakistan on Saudi funding.
-​ Left in political turmoil after completion of interests of powerful states
-​ Northern Alliance which backed US in Afghanistan.
-​ China
-​ Arab World
-​ Pakistan
-​ Alignment of goals with West- Aid and assistance- let go of nuclear imbroglio
-​ Close proximity - Paid huge price in terms of economic, social and human capital.
-​ Political and social stability of region depends on Afghanistan
-​ Close links of KPK region- inclination of pakisani public. Pushton Belt.
Irredentism claims of Afghans
-​ Hosting Afghan refugees-
-​ India
-​ Strategic interests to maintain hegemony
-​ A mean to destabilize Balochistan
-​ Water Monolpoly over Pakistan
-​ NATO

Conflict stages
●​ The decision to invade Afghanistan was triggered by the 9/11 attacks and aimed at
targeting Osama bin Laden and the Taliban.
●​ The focus shifted from just pursuing bin Laden to overthrowing the Taliban regime and
engaging in nation-building.
 ●​ Over the years, troop presence decreased, and efforts transitioned to training Afghan
forces and providing air support.
●​ However, corruption, mismanagement of reconstruction funds, and rural civilian
casualties contributed to the resurgence of the Taliban. The Biden administration's
decision to continue the withdrawal led to a swift Taliban takeover and left Afghans who
supported the US in a precarious situation.
●​ The Taliban emerged in 1994 as a response to local violence and initially brought peace
to Kandahar.
●​ They gained popularity due to their promises of stability, particularly among the rural
Pashtun population.
●​ The Taliban's rule in the 1990s was characterized by strict interpretation of Islamic law,
repression of women, and alliances with extremist groups.
●​ After the US invasion in 2001, the Taliban regrouped, adopting more sophisticated
tactics and gradually gaining control over rural areas, leading to the fall of the Afghan
government in 2021.

Timeline of events
1.​ Thirds Anglo-Afghan War 1919- led to independent monarchy—1964 Constitutional
Monarchy —1978 Great Saur Revolution – 1978 Treaty of Frienship with USSR-
Communist Reforms (women rights, land redistribution) by Khalq and Parcham Party —
resistance to these secular reforms— Jimmy Carter US covert funding —Pakistan
Logistics– KSA Finance.
2.​ Rise of CIA - backed Afghan Mujaheeden Guerilla Movement — support by Pakistan,
KSA, US, UK, ISREAL, Indonesia and China— Soveit sent 30,000 troops under Brezhev
Doctrine (Assistance of fellow endangered fellow communist nation)- 10 year long Proxy
war – UN Resolution 37/37 1983- Soveit to withdraw forces.
3.​ Stalemate- 8.2 Billion $ to US per year- USSR 400,000 wounded, 15000 deaths–
Geneva Accords 1988 between Pakistan and Afghanistan– Non-interference and Non
intervention- USSR +US guaranteer– Issue Taliban not included as a stake holder– led
to civil war eruption.
4.​ Leadership Vacuum– Rise of Taliban 1990s– 1998 US embassies bombing in East
Africa– 9/11 attacks.
5.​ 2001- 2020 – Operation Enduring Freedom by US aided by northern alliance – Fall of
Taliban Dec 2001– Bonn Conference by Iranian Diplomatic Help - Taliban not included–
create ISAF (International Security Assistance force)-- NATO expansion to 65000 troops
6.​ Grievances of Taliban– BinLaden Message —Bloody resurgences– NEW AMERICAN
STRATEGY (3 D- disrupt, dismantle and defeat)- Obama Adminstration +30,000 troops
to 68000 already.
7.​ Bin Laden killed- 2014 US talks with Taliban on security transition and troops draw
down— 444 billion $ spent by US, eroded public support.
8.​ Bonn Conference 2014- Pakistan refuses to attend.
9.​ Moscow Lead Talks 2017-2018 - 3 rounds - failed.
 10.​2019 US- Taliban Peace Talks– Trump backs out after Camp David —Threat of rising
ISIS– Doha Peace deal.
11.​US - no stable policy- first in 2001 combat only– 208s 3 D– 2014 ahead face saving
strategy.
12.​Kabul fell to Taliban 15 August 2021.

Efforts towards Peace

13.​UN Resolution 37/37 1983- Soveit to withdraw forces.
14.​Fall of Taliban Dec 2001– Bonn Conference by Iranian Diplomatic Help - Taliban not
included
15.​Quadrilateral Coordination Group- QCG- US, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan 2016-
failed
16.​2014 US talks with Taliban on security transition and troops draw down
17.​Bonn Conference 2014- Pakistan refuses to attend.
18.​Moscow Lead Talks 2017-2018 - 3 rounds - failed.
19.​2019 US- Taliban Peace Talk
20.​. Doha Deal 2020 • The parties of this deal were Afghan Taliban and the USA.
• Salient features of the deal:
a) All the Taliban prisoners with the US and the NATO countries will be released.
b) US and NATO countries will completely pull out from Afghanistan.
c) Taliban would stop fighting and join the mainstream.
d) US would facilitate the negotiation process between Afghan government and Afghan
Taliban.
e) June, July, and August of 2021 were the three decisive months.
• These terms and conditions were overwhelmingly in the favour of Afghan Taliban. (prior
to this deal, US was not ready for any of the terms of this deal) (formula for power share
derived.

Way Forward for Afghanistan

Contemporary challenges
●​ Conflict on sectarian fault lines– No monolithic Taliban (smoke screen)- Political
Instability
●​ Flagging economy and frozen Assets -
○​ WB funding ceased-
○​ sanctions-
○​ 2 Billion only by international community
●​ Collateral damages - human, life, history, generations
●​ Gender Apartheid - pluralistic society
●​ Human Security aspect- basic deliverables
○​ Food insecurity
●​ Rising ISIS- still persistant chaos and terrorism
●​ Uncertainity in Masses - grievances
Implications of the conflict

At Global Level
Economic, Political, Strategic, Social

For Pakistan
●​ US Accusations of Deceit against Pakistan.

The impact of a surge and escalation will have negative consequences for Pakistan and its
counter-insurgency campaign.
1) It will lead to a further influx of militants and Al-Qaeda fighters into Pakistan.
2) It will enhance the vulnerability of US-NATO ground supply routes through Pakistan, creating
what military strategists call the “battle of the reverse front”. It will also overstretch Pakistan‟s
forces in having to protect the supply lines.
3) It would produce a spike in violent reprisals on “mainland” Pakistan.
4) It could lead to the influx of more Afghan refugees, with further destabilizing effects in the
NWFP and Balochistan.
5) Most importantly, it could erode the present fragile political consensus in Pakistan to fight
militancy. (Maleeha Lodhi's Testimony to US State)

Geo-political Impact

Afghan-Pakistan Water crisis

Durand line Issue

Societal level Challenges

●​ Rehabilitation of refugees, inclusion in society- Identity not issued.
●​ Islamic radicalisation- Saudi funding lead to proliferation of madrassas in 1970s and
1980s.
●​ General Public initial sympathies with Afghanies. Now more sentiment of exploitation at
hands of US.
●​ Polarization in society over afghan refugee issue. Burden on economy.
●​ Increasing drug culture. Islamabad situation- look statistics over past 40-50 years.
●​ Access to arms through illegal means made easier- proportion of violence increased in
the society.
●​ Human Smuggling route- via Afghanistan
●​ Human Security Challenges multiplying- Food security, political security etc.

Economical level
●​ During the last 10 years the direct and indirect cost of war on terror incurred by Pakistan
amounted to $ 67.93 billion or Rs. 5037 billion. (MoF)
 ●​ Route of illegal dollar trade, arms trade and drugs trade. Stats
●​ Cost of terrorism over economy in terms of FDI, economic zones and potential
opportunities- Opportunity cost.
●​ Refugee Rehabilitation burden on economy.

Way Forward for Pakistan

Making APAPPS effective
On April 5, 2018, Pakistan and Afghan government agreed to form Afghanistan-Pakistan Action
Plan for Peace and Solidarity (APAPPS), aimed at improving bilateral relations.
The Plan has seven built-in principals, which included the following:
1.​ commitments that Pakistan would support the Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and
reconciliation
2.​ taking action against “irreconcilable and fugitive elements” on both sides;
3.​ denying territories to anti-state groups or individuals (on either side);
4.​ creating a joint supervision, coordination, and confirmation mechanism through Liaison
Officers (LOs) for the realization of the agreed actions; avoiding land and air violations of
each other’s territory;
5.​ Avoiding the public blame game by using cooperation mechanisms to respond to mutual
contentions and concerns.
6.​ Working groups and necessary cooperation mechanism would be set up as per
APAPPS.

To achieve these goals, six working groups were formed, including on politico-diplomatic
issues, economic ties, refugees, military engagements, and on intelligence sharing and
review mechanisms.
They suggested the following working frameworks for the success of the APAPPS:

Afghan Refugees repatriation

●​ A realistic and time-bound repatriation plan for the Afghans should be brought forward.
●​ The process of repatriation should be in consultation with Afghan government and
UNHCR, and the Pakistan government must facilitate it.
●​ Both governments should work towards non-exploitation of Afghan refugees.
●​ There should be a comprehensive databank of Afghan Refugees in Pakistan to help
reduce mistrust between the two governments.

Security Cooperation
●​ The quadrilateral counter-terrorism agreement among Tajikistan, Pakistan, China, and
Afghanistan should be
●​ implemented.
●​ There is a need for exchange programs, civil and military trainings, between Pakistan
and Afghanistan.
●​ To counter terrorism in a better way, both countries should enhance intelligence sharing,
and it should also be followed by immediate actions.
 ●​ Both countries have to cooperate in identifying all safe sanctuaries of terrorists residing
on either sides of border, and afterwards, come down hard on them.
Economic Cooperation
●​ Political and security issues are to be separated from economic ones. The two countries
should devise comprehensive economic policies having little dependence upon security
or political policies/circumstances.
●​ The two states should adopt long-term economic strategies leaving fewer chances for
modification, if governments in any or in both countries change. This will be more
attractive to investors in both the countries
●​ Both states have in place a Joint Economic Commission (JEC) for trade purposes but its
effectiveness has serious issues and hurdles and depends upon concrete economic and
trade policies
Peace Process
●​ Instead of a separate peace process, it is recommended to constitute a joint peace
process through consultation with regional and international peace makers.
●​ The two countries should adopt “Push and Pull strategies” for peace processes. A Push
strategy should be applied by Pakistan by bringing the Taliban into negotiation, whereas
a Pull strategy like unconditional peace offer should be undertaken by Afghanistan
government
●​ The two governments should come up with better monitoring actions/plans that can be
helpful in halting insurgents who cross the border illegally from either side. This
monitoring action should also be applied to refugee camps and madrassas, so as to sift
out the miscreants.
●​ There is a need to start multi-layered consultations among the relevant stakeholders, so
as to produce a credible and result-oriented peace process, which otherwise could not
produce desirable results.
●​ In addition to these suggestions, the experts from both courtiers agreed that the
implementation framework should be realistic and should set short, medium and
long-term targets
Central Asia

East Asia
South East Asia

Western Asia (Middle East)

Russia- Ukraine

Israel- Palestine
Article 2 of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of
Genocide of the United Nations defines genocide as: “any of the following
acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical,
racial or religious group, as such: killing members of the group; causing
serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; deliberately inflicting
on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical
destruction in whole or in part; imposing measures intended to prevent births
within the group; [and] forcibly transferring children of the group to another
group.

The UN says that about 1.4m people have been displaced in Gaza in the

current conflict — which is over 60 per cent of the entire strip’s population.

According to Article 13 of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights,

“everyone has the right […] to return to his country”.

●​ United Nations General Assembly Resolution 37/43 also reaffirms that people struggling for
independence and liberation from colonial rule have the right to do so using “all available means,
including armed struggle”
1.​ The late Palestinian-American scholar Edward Said once called Gaza the “essential core” of the
Palestinian struggle. It is an impoverished, congested place inhabited largely by Palestinian
refugees expelled from their homes during the Nakba of 1948. It previously gave birth to the first
Intifada and has been hosting the bulk of the Palestinian armed resistance over the past few
decades.
2.​ According to the World Food Programme, a significant portion of
the population is food insecure. In 2022, 1.84 million people
across Palestine – one-third of the population – did not have
enough food to eat. Among these people, 1.1 million were
 considered “severely food insecure”, 90 percent of whom lived in
Gaza.
3.​ In 2023, Gaza has had only 13 hours of electricity a day. In 2017
and 2018, this was down to seven hours a day.
4.​ Gaza’s aquifers, the main source of its water, are also nearly
depleted and contaminated by sea- and wastewater
5.​ he blockade has also taken a toll on the strip’s medical facilities.
6.​ The psychological impact
# New world order?

- There is a real possibility that the brazen support of Western powers

for Israel since Oct 7 could create the conditions for a bigger
conflagration in which Iran and Russia come together

# No innocents in Gaza

- They force us to recognise that all mortal conflicts come from

tribalism — the identification with your own group and a separation of
‘us’ from ‘them’. You mourn the death of your own tribe’s member and
kill the other with relish
- he UN Declaration of Human Rights is the finest document ever
produced collectively by humans and the strongest negation of
tribalism.
- Israel is a colonial settler-state like the United States, Canada and
Australia. In each of these states, indigenous populations were first
overpowered, whittled down in numbers through systematic
dispossession, and reduced to irrelevance.
- At the deepest level, the ‘Western tribe’ identifies culturally with
Israel.

- Title: Myth of Israeli invincibility

- over five million Palestinians, 2.2m (half of them children) are confined to the Gaza Strip, while
approximately 3m live in the Occupied West Bank.
- an open-air prison which is heavily policed, fenced in on three sides with a few crossings, and
blockaded and monitored on the fourth by the Israeli navy.
- 1973 ‘Ramadan War’, the Israeli military’s myth was somewhat punctured by the Egyptian
army which crossed the Suez and took back land lost in 1967 in the Sinai to the Israelis
- ollowed by the Camp David (peace) Accords.

# Dangers of escalation (Maleeha Lodhi)

- US role in the crisis has come into sharper focus due to two key developments.
- Joe Biden’s visit to Israel in the midst of the war.
- US veto of a UN Security Council resolution seeking a “humanitarian pause” in the war, which
followed its rejection of another resolution calling for a ceasefire
- Israel has bombed Syria’s two main airports. There has been an exchange of fire across the
Lebanese border.

- Gaza’s civilians are mounting pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon to join the conflict.
- likely result in US intervention. Washington has already sent weapons to Israel and deployed
two aircraft carrier strike groups in the eastern Mediterranean ostensibly to ‘deter’ Hezbollah
and its ally Iran from entering the conflict.
- For its part, Iran has warned of “pre-emptive action” to deter Israel’s ground invasion into
Gaza.

# Slow turn of the tide

- the shift is generational and racial; an NPR poll conducted last week shows that while the
majority (65 per cent) of Americans — Republicans and Democrats — want the US to publicly
support Israel, that percentage drops to 48pc when it comes to Generation Z, and 51pc when it
comes to non-whites.

# There are common points between the Gaza war and the Bosnian genocide (Al-Jazeera)

- heer horror at the sight of the immense suffering that is being inflicted upon the population of
Gaza.
- we are seeing in Gaza now is an astonishing demonstration of what happens when a superior
power unleashes its revenge on defenceless civilians

# Western feminism and its blind spots in the Middle East (Al-Jazeera)
- Western feminism’s apparent indifference to statements like that of Israeli Defence Minister
Yoav Gallant, likening Palestinians to “human animals”, is deeply alarming
- GAZA STRIP- 6000 bombs in year- more bomb than US dropped in Afghanistan

If Genocide happens- a pattern-

-​ Enemy dehumanized
-​ Massive propaganda - War propaganda
-​ Support marked as terrorist support
-​ Fight against the created perpetrator scare-
-​ Paid target advertisement - social media companies taking down their content- Journalist
shows shut down- Account shut downs - shadow banning

US- China Rivalry

●​ Indo-pacific economic framework0 IPEF- economic pillar of America’s Asia
Strategy
●​ Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC- San Francisco- 4 hour Biden- Xi
Meeting
○​ Direct Military contact
○​ Curb chemical precursor for Fentanyl
○​ Dangers of AI.

US-CHINA Rivalry
Great Power Competition

" Great Power is the one that can project power beyond its region and influence
economically too"
Graham Allison
●​ Evidence from History
○​ Thucydides trap 335 BCE - credited for writing for the first time what was
happening
■​ Athens (China- rising up) VS. Sparta (US- established power)
■​ 12/16 - War happened among a new rising war and a already
power
■​ 4/16 only peaceful transition of power- one example disintegration
of USSR
■​ Human nature
○​ Chinese History - last 5000 year there was China
■​ History is a mirror for China- Xiping to US president
■​ " Never the power sitting in China never controlled the whole
China". Obsession with controlling the whole area- Taiwan
issue red line.
○​ US History
■​ Not accept any other power coming closer to them or bypassing
them.
■​ Parity is out of the question for the US.
■​ US Intelligence- 2027 the year China will take over Taiwan- other
speculation- 2024/25 possibility more- once a leader in trouble
internally - will go to pursue adventures externally.
●​ Contemporary circumstances
○​ Bipolarity of cold war- a fleeting moment in linear history
○​ Trade War- Tech War- Military Alliances- Institutional Aspect
○​ Which system is more stable - Bipolar system showed stability in Europe-
Multipolar system brought instability
■​ Different Models
■​ Order without freedom- China
■​ What's the point of having soft power when you have
no hard power
■​ Libya- People asking US - Syria - Arab spring asking
US

●​ Order with freedom- European Model

●​ How is it playing out

○​ Can be more peaceful - factor which support that it would be more
peaceful than first half of 20th century
○​ Other factors- nuclear- weapon development- Cyber- could be war
 ○​ 1400-1900 - every year on average 2 major wars per year. 220 wars were
fought in these 500 years. 196 were fought in Europe.
○​ Paradoxical nature of human nature- rich v. poor
●​ What is the future - Balance of Power- Economic/ Political
○​ By 2040 economically -
■​ China number 1
■​ India number 2 * Choice of India joining the US would be very
Decisive. But Indian behavior is very narcissistic.
■​ US number 3
■​ Militarily - US 1- China 2- India 3
○​ G-4 bloc to counter China- Anti-China Bloc backed by US.

Trade war ○​ Allies of US not forced to not

do trade with China- works
for China
■​ Germany biggest
trading partner is
China
■​ Japan
●​ B3W v BRI​

○​ Huge US Deficit- loan from

China
○​ BRI- control of routes
particularly export
●​ Control over ASEAN​
​
​

○​ Strings of Pearl Strategy

●​ ​
​
​
​
India- G-20 'Spice route
announcement '​

○​
Tech War -
-
●​ Space War Chinese destroyed their own satellite
The US is threatened by Sparta.

South China Sea ○​ 9 dash line - whole of region

belongs to China
Great powers- if you can't ○​ China part of UN Convention
control your neighborhood- you of Law of Seas (12 nautical
can't control their power of land. mile- exclusive economic
zone)
■​ Chinese artificial
island- Building the
bases
■​ Central line of defense
for Chinese
■​ Philippines- the
affected -
Arbitration
decision not
accepted by
China
■​ US launched
'Freedom of
Navigation' mission
2014/15 not accepting
legality of Chinese
Islands.
■​ Malacca Dilemma -
Counter BRI, CPEC -
■​ Reserves of
hydrocarbons in the
region
○​ Japanese third largest
economy and its huge trade
with US (statistics)
■​ China want to disrupt
this trade.
​
Military/ Political Aspect ○​ Since 1970s - acceptance of
●​ Taiwan One- China
■​ US
acceptance/support of
Taiwan now more
■​ Nancy Pol visit
■​ US 40% of US military
and Man power in
ASIA to contain China-
Taiwan a flashpoint.
○​ Taiwan Proxy for US
■​ Great opportunity to
degrade China without
getting to its mainland.
■​ Taiwan a complex
target
■​ US becoming more
aggressive- selling
weapon
​

Pol/ Institutional Aspect ○​ Covid investigation

■​ Assertiveness of
China
■​ China increased the
funding for WHO -
Trump decreased
○​ China building parallel
institutions
■​ AIIB - Asian
Infrastructure and
Development Bank
■​ SCO, BRICS
​
Politics of Military Alliances Big Difference in how American and
Chinese behave
●​ US+ its allies own 80% of ●​ China no defense pact - US
world military might. Defence pact
●​ Cautious- avoid outright
Graham Allison confrontation
Sun Tzu ●​ Soft Power Diplomacy
' Subdue your enemy without ●​ Non-interventionist policy of China
fighting a war' ●​ Alliances- liberal Ideology aspect
●​ China subdue it without ○​ Also Alliance states can't
fighting alienate US.
●​ China- Tributary System Behavior of China toward US and US
(relationship not on equal towards China-
footing- China higher ●​ US more hostile language
power and pursues it ●​ US protection of Civilians priority
interest
●​ Time to time states go for their interest-
certain times for their values
●​ Liberal values
●​ Pak- SEATO and CENTO

Containment Policy ○​ Asia Pivot Policy

○​ US offensive Policy
-Thucydides Trap ○​ China- Defensive Policy
●​ Power transition Theory ●​ ​
​
US gave the opportunity to China
itself​

○​ Involvement in wars
○​ Opportunity Cost

Rise of China ○​ Hard Power and Soft Power

●​ European perspective- aspect
Threat ■​ Uighur situation-
●​ Chinese Perspective- Human rights violation
Peaceful ■​ Taiwan situation
○​ Chinese Rise not now
peaceful - shifting from
building economic muscle to
building military muscle.
 ​

Cultural Aspect ○​ Export rising- Cultural

assimilation
​
​
​

At the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Coope­ra­tion, it pledged $51bn over three

years in loans and traditional aid. The Gulf states are also incr­easing aid,
largely in strategically important regions.

In 2023, USAID committed only $132.6m across various sectors. This funding
was reduced to $116m in 2024, primarily due to a decline in humanitarian
assistance. These funding levels are negligible relative to the size of Pakistan’s
$375bn economy. The same holds true for most African countries, where
USAID’s spending is minimal. Nevertheless, the aid that actually reaches
intended beneficiaries is only a small fraction of overall disbursement figures.

As things stand, Pakistan may lose out on up to $1-1.5bn of textile exports

over the next year, Pakistan Business Council CEO estimates.

At $3.33bn, Pakistan’s highest trade surplus stems from Washington.