Project Café Global 2024 Executive Edition – December 2023

DISCLAIMER

Copyright: Allegra World Coffee Portal, December 2023

This Executive Edition is for contributors to World Coffee Portal research only.
The views and forecasts presented in this report represent independent findings and conclusions drawn Allegra World Coffee Portal research. Main sources of
information include published information, opinions and information shared by interviewees with Allegra World Coffee Portal during the period of study. This report has
been produced under significant time constraints to ensure that the information contained is as up-to-date as possible. Great care has been taken to ensure that all
information contained in this report is accurate, free from bias, and fully describes the latest developments in the market. However, Allegra World Coffee Portal can
accept no responsibility for any investment decision made on the basis of this information or for any omissions or inaccuracies that may be contained in this report. This
report has been produced in good faith, independently of any industry operator or supplier. We trust that it will be of significant value to you.

Consumer Survey Information

Project Café UK 2023 – 50,945 survey completes from UK coffee shop consumers, conducted 27 September – 1 November 2022 in English
Project Café Ireland 2023 – 2,022 online consumer surveys from Irish coffee shop consumers, conducted 26 January – 13 February 2023 in English
Project Café Italy 2023 – 2,005 online consumer surveys from Italian coffee shop consumers, conducted 26 January – 2 February 2023 in Italian
Project Café Scandinavia (Denmark) 2023 – 665 online consumer surveys from Danish coffee shop consumers, conducted 26 January – 19 February 2023 in English
Project Café Scandinavia (Norway) 2023 – 669 online consumer surveys from Danish coffee shop consumers, conducted 26 January – 19 February 2023 in English
Project Café Scandinavia (Sweden) 2023 – 686 online consumer surveys from Danish coffee shop consumers, conducted 26 January – 19 February 2023 in English
Project Café USA 2024 – 5,059 survey completes from US coffee shop consumers, conducted 26 July – 9 August 2023 in English
Project Café East Asia 2024 (China) – 4,011 survey completes from Chinese coffee shop consumers, conducted 27 October – 3 November 2023 in Mandarin

Due to panel constraints, the China consumer surveys skew younger, with demographic splits Under 30, 30-39 and 40 and Over instead of the usual Under 35, 35-54 and
55 & Over groupings.

Consumer data presented only when questions has been asked in the same form across all surveys, variations are excluded.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Project Café Global 2024 Executive Edition Cover 1

Disclaimer 2

Table of Contents 3

Allegra Project Café Publications 2023 4

Project Café Global 2024 Headlines 5

Key News & Events 6

Market Coverage 2023 Outlet Sizing 7

Europe Market Region Operator Highlights 8

USA Market Operator Highlights 9

East Asian Market Region Operator Highlights 10

Industry Assessment – State Of The Market 11

Industry Assessment – Future Prospects 12

Consumer Research – Purchase Decisions 13

Consumer Research – Key Brand Rankings 14

Consumer Research – Average Spend 15

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ALLGRA PROJECT CAFÉ PUBLICATIONS 2023

Project Café UK 2023 Project Café Europe 2023 Project Café Ireland 2023 Project Café Italy 2023

Published 16 January 2023 Published 15 March 2023 Published 3 April 2023 Published 3 April 2023

368 Pages 497 Pages 211 Pages 211 Pages

Project Café Scandinavia 2023 Project Café USA 2024 Project Café East Asia 2024 Project Café Global 2024

Published 3 April 2023 Published 29 September 2023 Published 30 November 2023 Published 15 December 2023

211 Pages 343 Pages 373 Pages 98 Pages

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PROJECT CAFÉ GLOBAL 2024 HEADLINES
CHINA LEADS UNPRECEDENTED COFFEE SHOP MARKET GROWTH IN EAST ASIA
The Chinese branded coffee shop market is currently experiencing a growth boom, expanding by 58.4% over the last 12 months to exceed 49,600 outlets.
It has overtaken the USA to become the largest global branded chain market. Six other East Asian markets – Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia,
Philippines and Vietnam – have also enjoyed double digit growth in terms of annual outlet expansion, as out-of-home coffee culture thrives in the region.
In Europe, 31 of the 40 biggest markets achieved annual growth. The UK remains the largest branded coffee shop market in the region, increasing its
annual growth rate to 4.4% to exceed 9,800 outlets. Germany is the second largest with over 6,700 outlets, contracting for the second time in three years

STAFFING ISSUES DISRUPT COFFEE INDUSTRY ON A GLOBAL SCALE, LEADING TO MORE AUTOMATION
Although the majority of industry leaders across the 69 global markets Allegra has analysed over the last 12 months are broadly positive about the trading
environment, there are significant challenges to navigate. Labour shortages have caused major disruptions across businesses in most markets, driven by
rising costs in recovering post-pandemic economies. This increases financial pressure on companies, while staff also struggle as wages fail to keep up with
inflation. Employee retention is a sustained challenge. To mitigate staffing issues, operators have invested heavily in automation, such as advanced bean-
to-cup coffee machines. Automation improves consistency and efficiency, and frees staff to focus on other tasks including enhanced customer engagement

TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS STREAMLINE COFFEE SHOP OPERATIONS

Starbucks Coffee Company’s ‘reinvention strategy’ sees an investment focus on more efficient, higher capacity automated machinery allowing beverages
to be produced quicker in greater quantities, requiring less manual labour to operate. Technological solutions are facilitating the consumer experience,
streamlining ordering and payment processes to make them more convenient. China is a major adopter of this trend, with market leader Luckin Coffee
investing heavily on a multi-functional app downloaded by over 120 millions users. Costa Coffee is expanding its vending concept with more units in a
wider range of markets, utilising iced technology. The brand has also developed the Costa X system, high-end self-serve machines for professional settings

FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL CHALLENGED BY PERSISTENT ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES

Global economic conditions are expected to remain difficult over the next 12 months, with Europe suffering more than most with several major countries
including the UK and France at risk of joining Germany in recession in 2024. Allegra forecasts most major branded coffee shop markets will continue to
grow, but at a slower rate than the previous 12 months. The European market is predicted to expand to over 44,100 outlets at a growth rate of 3.2%,
having increased by 3.3% up to March 2023; the USA is expected to exceed 41,300 outlets at a growth rate of 3.3%, having risen by 4.0% up to September
2023; and East Asia is anticipated to reach over 136,500 outlets at a growth rate of 14.5%, having expanded by 24.0% up to November 2023

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KEY NEWS & EVENTS

Flash Coffee closes its remaining 11 stores in Singapore , focusing instead on operations in Indonesia and Thailand (October)

Starbucks announces that founder and former CEO Howard Schultz has stepped down from its Board of Directors with immediate effect (September)

Molly Liu promoted to Co-CEO of Starbucks China (September)

Dunn Brothers Coffee appoints Scott Harvey, former Black Rifle Coffee Company Chief Operating Officer, as President (August)

Kaldi’s Coffee announces merger with Dancing Goats Coffee (August)

Panera Brands appoints José Alberto Dueñas as CEO ahead of planned IPO (July)

A Twosome Place appoints the former head of Burger King Korea, Moon Young-joo, as its new CEO (July)

Shipley Do-Nuts names Flynn Dekker, former CEO of Korean fast-food restaurant chain Bonchon, as new CEO (May)

SSP Group purchases Michigan-based Midfields Midfield Concession Enterprise Inc. to extend its presence at 30 of the largest airports in the US (May)

Rui Miguel Nabeiro, CEO of Delta Cafes, appointed new Chair of International Coffee Partners (March)
2023
Pret A Manger and Costa Coffee both announce third pay rise for store UK store staff within 12 months (March)

Luckin Coffee moves beyond China with the opening of two outlets in Singapore (March)

SPC Group appoints Lee Joo-yun as CEO of BR Korea co. simultaneously with Lee Myung-wook going from VP of Paris Croissant to CEO of its Chinese operations (February)

Bluestone Lane begins new expansion strategy with first airport-based concept at Newark Liberty International (February)

Costa Coffee appoints Philippe Schaillee as new CEO (February)

Corner Bakery Café files for bankruptcy, eventually rescued via auction by SSCP Management for $15million (February)

Biggby Coffee appoints former Starbucks executive Michele Waits as new Chief Marketing Officer as it seeks to reach 1,000 US stores by 2028 (January)

Espresso House to invest $8m in 2023 to increase staff pay (January)

Starbucks expands partnership with delivery platform DoorDash, with the aim of reaching full nationwide availability (January)

Tim Hortons in China has unveiled its ‘Tian Hao Coffee’ Chinese language name and continues to expedite its expansion strategy (January)

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MARKET COVERAGE 2023 OUTLET SIZING
Total Branded Coffee Shop Outlets – Europe Total Branded Coffee Shop Outlets – USA Total Branded Coffee Shop Outlets – East Asia

Coffee-Focused Food-Focused Coffee-Focused Food-Focused Coffee-Focused Food-Focused

17,748

16,089
19,790 7,357
7,125 15,734
18,030 6,986 7,038
17,278 17,637
15,712
163,839
120,460
34,259 37,910 103,487
29,902 31,524 33,024
24,150 25,167 26,134 80,468

Mar 22 Mar 23E Mar 24F Mar 28F Sep 22 Sep 23E Sep 24F Sep 28F Nov 22 Nov 23E Nov 24F Nov 28F

41,428 42,804 44,164 49,692 38,510 40,062 41,384 45,267 96,180 119,221 136,549 181,587
+3.5% YOY +3.3% YOY +3.2% YOY +3.0% CAGR +3.0% YOY +4.0% YOY +3.3% YOY +2.5% CAGR +14.9% YOY +24.0% YOY +14.5% YOY +8.8% CAGR

Top Five Operators By Outlets – Europe Top Five Operators By Outlets – USA Top Five Operators By Outlets – East Asia

Operator Total Outlets Annual Increase Operator Total Outlets Annual Increase Operator Total Outlets Annual Increase

Costa Coffee 3,122 Outlets -22 Outlets Starbucks 16,144 Outlets +494 Outlets Starbucks 13,524 Outlets +1,223 Outlets

Starbucks 3,075 Outlets +89 Outlets Dunkin' 9,434 Outlets +172 Outlets Luckin Coffee 13,296 Outlets +5,082 Outlets

McCafé 2,923 Outlets -90 Outlets Panera Bread 2,151 Outlets -22 Outlets Cotti Coffee 6,066 Outlets +6,009 Outlets

Greggs 2,328 Outlets +152 Outlets Dutch Bros Coffee 770 Outlets +167 Outlets McCafé 5,506 Outlets +1,802 Outlets

Coffee Like 901 Outlets +86 Outlets Scooter's Coffee 714 Outlets +224 Outlets Café Amazon 4,422 Outlets +330 Outlets

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EUROPE MARKET REGION OPERATOR HIGHLIGHTS

Market Leader – Costa Coffee Key Player – Starbucks Rapid Riser – 5 To Go

Due to its strong presence in the UK market, Costa Coffee is the Starbucks overtook McCafé and is now the second largest 5 To Go continues its rapid expansion in Romania to cement its
branded chain leader in Europe with 3,122 outlets. The operator branded chain operator in Europe with 3,075 outlets, increasing dominance in its home market with a further 180 outlets over
opened its first store in Georgia at the end of 2022, expanding by 89 over the last 12 months. The brand continues to innovate the last 12 months. The brand has expanded to Hungary, has
its footprint across 18 European markets, with over 100 outlets it product line, most recently adding an olive-oil infused Oleato attempted tie ups in Belgium and France, and is looking to enter
each in Ireland and Poland. coffee range to its Italian menu. further European markets in the coming years.

Making Moves – Cofix One To Watch – Espresso Lab Tough Trading – Markt Bäckerei

While many foreign brands have fled Russia since its invasion of This Turkish coffee brand which heavily promotes its ethical The purchase of K&U Backkultur by Edeka Group in Germany
Ukraine, Cofix has bucked the trend and actually invested credentials has been around since 2014, but has undergone a has been completed, with a mixture of stores trading under
further in the market, with an additional 57 stores. It has also recent expansion drive, and also has presence in Germany. At 99 independent names but still part of the supply group, store
expanded presence in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Poland to reach stores Europewide as of April 2023, the brand stated its intent to closures, and regularly branded stores maintaining presence.
344 European stores overall, a total increase of 85. reach 200 outlets by the end of the year. The brand has retracted by 130 outlets over the last year.

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USA MARKET OPERATOR HIGHLIGHTS

Market Leader – Starbucks Key Player – Dunkin’ Rapid Riser – Dutch Bros. Coffee

Market leader Starbucks has increased its outlet presence by Dunkin’ is the second most prominent player in the US coffee Dutch Bros has significantly expanded its store outlets over the
494 stores over the last 12 months, comprising 48.9% of the shop market, currently standing at 9,434 outlets, an increase of last 12 months, increasing by 172 to reach 770. The chain is
coffee-focused segment share and 40.3% of the total US market 172 over the last 12 months. Most recently, the brand launched aiming to reach 800 outlets by the end of 2023. Consumer
share. Despite Starbucks’ continued growth, the brand has been Dunkin’ Spiked Iced Coffee and Iced Teas, expanding into the preference and favorability of the brand has notably increased
facing pressure for unfair labour practices. ready-to-drink alcoholic beverage market. over the period, with high praise for its iced beverage offerings.

Making Moves – Scooter’s Coffee One To Watch – 7 Brew Coffee Tough Trading – Corner Bakery

Nebraska-based Scooter’s Coffee added 224 outlets to its US drive-thru coffee chain 7 Brew Coffee added 83 outlets over Corner Bakery filed for bankruptcy earlier this year after several
portfolio over the last 12 months, now standing at 714 outlets. the last 12 months, standing at 108 outlets. The Arkansas-based months of tough trading mainly caused by inflationary issues,
Most recently, the brand hired Tim Arpin as Chief sales officer. chain offers a range of customizable coffee and infused energy supply chain disruptions and labour shortages. SSCP
Arpin will lead Scooter’s Coffee’s next phase of franchise beverages with over 20,000 unique combinations available, Management has bought out the company back in summer as it
expansion as it targets 1,000 US stores by the end of 2024. according to their website. intends to continue operations of profitable outlets.

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EAST ASIAN MARKET REGION OPERATOR HIGHLIGHTS

Market Leader – Starbucks Key Player – Paris Baguette Rapid Riser – Cotti Coffee

Starbucks is the largest branded coffee chain in East Asia, with Despite the entrance of many new competitive local and Launched only in October 2022, Cotti Coffee has rapidly become
13,524 outlets across 15 markets, having the most extensive international operators to East Asian markets, Paris Baguette East Asia's third largest operator with 6,066 stores, mainly in
presence in China, Japan, and South Korea. It has increased its remains among the top five largest branded chains in the region, China, with additional locations in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan,
overall regional footprint by 1,223 net outlets over the last 12 currently operating 4,091 stores across seven markets, an and South Korea. The brand recently announced its Vietnam
months, equivalent to 11.3% market share. addition of 154 over the year. debut, expanding its regional presence.

Making Moves – Pickup Coffee One To Watch – Tomoro Coffee Tough Trading – 85C Bakery Cafe

Filipino value-focused chain Pickup Coffee, has doubled its Tomoro Coffee is a relatively new brand, having began 85C Bakery has closed 182 outlets over the last 12 months, all in
market presence in less than a year, currently standing at 120 operations just over 15 months ago. Yet, it is the fastest growing China and its home market, Taiwan, bringing its presence in East
outlets. The tech-led brand has raised millions in series funding brand in Indonesia in terms of outlets, expanding to 200 stores Asia to 863 stores across four markets. The branded chain has
to continue its expansion within the domestic market, by mostly (+189) over the year. Moreover, it has entered the Chinese encountered difficult market conditions mostly attributed to
investing in coffee carts and small-format sites. market last month with an outlet in Shanghai. fierce competition and a low-priced offerings.

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INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT – STATE OF THE MARKET

UK leaders were downcast when describing trading environment conditions in January 2023, at the peak of the cost-of-living crisis with high inflation levels and high
energy costs. Conversely, positivity spiked in the US (76%), a marked change to the previous 12 months where they had been the least positive of any market researched
by Allegra (49%). The vast majority of leaders in all markets report growth for their businesses compared to the previous year, with sales decline relatively rare.

How would you describe the current trading environment for coffee shops and cafés in your national
market? (Single Response) “The Chinese coffee shop market, particularly in the developed East
UK Europe USA East Asia
coast, is fiercely competitive and mature. Local brands with strong
financial backing dominate. Big players are expanding into smaller
cities with aggressive pricing, enticing a massive demographic switch
from milk tea to coffee. This landscape demands substantial
investment or innovative approaches for entry.”
Founder, Coffee Consultancy, China

“Coffee shops have always faired well in economic down turns, being
37% 58% 76% 72% 25% 19% 13% 7% 38% 23% 11% 21%
the affordable everyday treat. Fingers crossed this remains the same.
Positive Neutral Negative The quality of service, the product consumed and the overall
experience will be the key to success when consumers are making
How do the last 12 months of trading compare with the same period last year? choices on where to spend their money. Overall value perception will
(Single Response)
be key as disposable income reduces.”
UK Europe USA East Asia National Account Manager, Major Beverage Supplier, UK

“I think the response varies significantly based on location. We're

seeing strength of trade increase in New York City steadily and expect
this trend to continue. However, in downtown centres that rely
heavily on in-person office work, the stickiness of the work from home
trend has been and will continue to be an issue for trade. We're
seeing growth in cold coffee with declining seasonality.”
81% 76% 70% 72% 4% 7% 19% 11% 15% 17% 11% 17%
Area Manager, Coffee-Focused Chain, USA
Growth No change Decline

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INDUSTRY ASSESSMENT – FUTURE PROSPECTS

Expectation in trading prospects follows the timeline at which respondents were asked during the year, with UK industry leaders questions in January (39% expecting
conditions to improve) all the way through to East Asian industry leaders in November (67% expecting better conditions over the next 12 months). Given there has been
such an incredible increase in branded chain outlets across most East Asia markets (and double-digit growth in seven markets), this renewed optimism is notable.

Do you expect trading conditions for the coffee shop sector to improve or deteriorate over the next 12
months? (Single Response) “I think that sales will continue to restabilize as new individual
UK Europe USA East Asia
concepts and proliferation of new branded coffee concepts will
continue. There will be more large national specialty coffee roasters
taking market share from larger chain concepts. People seem to be
enjoying their old rituals or creating new ones getting coffee out of
the home so this will continue to grow.”
Customer Experience Director, Coffee-Focused Chain, USA

“The coffee only business has reached its maximum potential due to
39% 48% 58% 67% 29% 35% 37% 22% 32% 17% 5% 11%
high penetration and saturation, across most European markets.
Improve Stay the same Deteriorate Coffee concepts, especially from branded chains, need to start to
differentiate on storytelling, branding, third place design, food
A/D - There is still plenty of growth potential for branded coffee shops in my country offering and circularity to retain customers. Price sensitivity is
(Single Response)
important.”
UK Europe USA East Asia Managing Partner, Hospitality Consultancy, Germany

“Automation will reshape coffee shops. Advanced machines may

replace baristas for efficiency and cost-effectiveness. However, the
essence of our coffee shops lies in the unique experience. Skilled
baristas offer expertise and engaging conversations that machines
can't replicate. Two markets may emerge, one focused on efficiency
and another valuing a rich, personalised experience.”
58% 54% 78% 67% 26% 35% 13% 24% 16% 11% 9% 9%
General Manager, Major Coffee Supplier, Thailand
Agree Neutral Disagree

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CONSUMER RESEARCH – PURCHASE DECISIONS

Consumers were asked whether they purchase a range of beverage and food combinations from coffee shops often, sometimes, rarely or never. Taking only the
responses for those indicating that they often purchase isolates the most common food and drink combinations for the most prolific purchasers. A beverage only
purchase is the most common purchase type across all markets studied, peaking in the UK (74%). The cold beverage and food purchase is most popular in the US (19%).

How often do you make the following purchase decisions at coffee shops? (Single Response)
Figure displays the likelihood of beverage and food purchase combinations for respondents who purchase from coffee shops the most frequently

Beverage Only Hot Beverage & Food Cold Beverage & Food Food Only

1.9%
5.4% 7.5% 8.3% 10.9% 9.7% 8.3% 10.7% 9.0%

11.9% 9.9%
18.4% 14.7% 14.7% 15.3%
15.6% 18.9%

19.8%
21.8% 29.4%
19.2% 22.5% 25.2%
19.0%

74.3%
60.8%
55.2% 54.3% 53.1% 52.4% 51.5% 50.5%

UK Ireland Sweden Denmark Norway Italy USA China

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CONSUMER RESEARCH – KEY BRAND RANKINGS

Consumers in the UK and USA were asked to rank the last coffee shop they visited across a range of ten factors. The only category where the top three chains in the UK
and USA (in terms of market size) all attained a ranking of 8+ was for beverage quality. The single highest rating overall was for the beverage choice at Starbucks in the
UK (8.8), while it also topped this category in the USA. The chains performed more poorly in terms of low prices, with Dunkin’ in the USA outperforming its rivals (7.1).

Please rate the coffee shop you last ordered from on a scale of 1-10 (Single Response)
Figure displays average rankings for top three coffee shop brands in the UK and USA in terms of outlets

CATEGORY COSTA COFFEE CAFFÈ NERO STARBUCKS STARBUCKS DUNKIN' PANERA BREAD

BEVERAGE CHOICE 8.7 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.3 7.9

BEVERAGE QUALITY 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.1

BRAND APPEAL 8.3 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.3 7.9

EASE OF ORDERING 8.3 7.8 8.3 8.6 8.6 8.5

FOOD CHOICE 7.3 7.4 7.9 7.7 7.8 8.2

FOOD QUALITY 7.9 7.6 8.2 8.0 7.9 8.4

HYGIENE 8.5 8.2 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.5

LOW PRICES 6.0 6.3 5.7 6.3 7.1 6.7

STANDARD OF SERVICE 8.4 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.2

VALUE FOR MONEY 7.0 7.2 7.0 7.4 7.8 7.5

UK USA

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CONSUMER RESEARCH – AVERAGE SPEND

Respondents estimated how much they had spent in total on themselves during their last coffee shop order, displayed in UK sterling at the exchange rate at the time of
data gathering. Norway had the highest overall average spend at £6.45, although due to exchange rate fluctuations since this would only be worth £5.88 in December
2023. Italy’s average spend is the lowest, primarily due to the popularity of espresso beverages, and croissant being the most popular food choice, both low cost items.

How much did you spend on this order, on all items purchased for yourself? (Open Text)
Figure displays average all item spend on last coffee shop purchase, exchanged to UK sterling at time of data gathering

NORWAY DENMARK SWEDEN UK

£6.45 £6.38 £6.20 £6.17

Exchange Rate Exchange Rate Exchange Rate Exchange Rate
6TH March 2023 6TH March 2023 6TH March 2023 N/A

USA IRELAND CHINA ITALY

£5.47 £5.33 £4.89 £3.25

Exchange Rate Exchange Rate Exchange Rate Exchange Rate
30TH August 2023 6TH March 2023 1ST November 2023 6TH March 2023

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