ZEBALLOS MACHACA JHOSSELYN

51. Using the data from problem 48, determine the probability of having between 3 and 5 accidents.
46% b) 18% c) 35% d) 54% Other

= (3 ≤ x ≤ 5 =) ( 3 + ) x = (4 +
x= x) = 5 ( )

0.19 + 0.18 + 0.17+= 0.54

= 54%
52. What is the probability of exactly 4 accidents occurring in problem 48?

a) 0% b) 17% c) 18% d) 82% e) Other

( = 4) = 0.18
18%
53. What is the probability of accidents occurring with the data from problem 52?

99% b) 8% c) 13% d) 81% e) Other

P (x ≥ 1=) 1 - P x = (0 )

= 1 - 0.01
99%
54. The Meteorological Institute reports that there is a 43% chance that the end of
It will rain in the city this week. Carlos believes he has a 78% chance of passing.
basic math exam next Monday. What is the probability that Carlos
Do you think the exam will be cancelled due to the rain over the weekend?

29.61% b) 35% c) 33.54% d) 47.43% e) Other

( ∩ ) = ( ) ( )
( 0.43 )( 0.78 )0.3354

33.54%

55. If in problem 54 it is considered that 10% of the students who take the exam...
Monday they fail him if it rained the previous weekend, what is the probability that Carlos does it?
whether it failed or did not rain over the weekend, that is, P(L or A)?

69% 23.54% 7.9% 79.25% e) Other

( ′ ∪ ′) = ( (( ∩ )′ )
= 1 - P (∩ )

1 − 0.3354
66.46%
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

56. If the probability of a quinceañera turning 45 years old is 0.95 and the
the probability of having a good job during those times is 0.78, what is the probability of
Will I turn 45 with a good job?

173% b) 74.10% c) 17% d) 64.83% e) Other

( ∩ ) 0.78
( 0.95 )(= 0.741
)

74.10%

57. Solve problem 56 considering that out of 250 girls turning fifteen, 225 reach the age of 45.
of age and only 175 manage to get a good job.

63% 37% c) 80% d) 75% e) Other

225 175
=( )( ) = 0.63
250 250
63%
58. In problem 57, what is the probability that a quinceañera has of achieving a good...
employment or turning 45 years old? Suppose that 63% turn 45 and are doing well
employment

97% b) 1.6% c) 27% 160% e) Other

( ∩ ) 0.63
( ∪ )= ( )+ ( )− ( ∩ )
225 175
+ -0.63 = 0.97
250 250
97%
59. Two coins and a die are thrown together, what is the probability of getting two heads and
a 3?

a) 1/10 b) 1/24 c) 1/12 d) 3/10 e) Another

=(C, C, 1)(C, C, 2C,C,(3 C,C,4C,

)( C,5 C,C,
)(6C. 5,1 C,
)( 5, 2….)( )( )
1
( 4)( 624
)
24
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

60. In problem 59, what is the probability that the coins will result in different faces?
And the die to a number less than 3?

a) 1/12 b) 1/6 c) 1/10 d) 3/8 e) Other

EVENT= {( , 5,1)( , 5,2)(5, , 1)(5, , 2)}

4 1
= =
24 6

9.2 MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION

EXERCISES 9.2
What is another name for mathematical expectation?

The mathematical expectation, also called expected value, is equal to the sum of the
probabilities that a random event exists, multiplied by the value of the event
random.

2. How is the expected value calculated?

The mathematical expectation is calculated using the probability of each event. The
the formula that formalizes this calculation is stated as follows:

3. What is the purpose of mathematical expectation?

4.
Mathematical expectation is used in all those disciplines in which the
the presence of probabilistic events is inherent to them

5. The probability of receiving $50,000 is 78.3%, what is the expected value?

50000 (0.783 =) 50000

( = )39250

6. The probability that Lupita has of achieving first place in the city marathon is
From 35.6%, what is the expected value if a prize of $175,000 is offered to the winner?

( 175000 )(0.356 =) 62300

 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

7. What is the mathematical expectation for Lupita in problem 5 if the probability that
Is the probability of arriving in first place only 5.03%?

( 0.0503 )(175000 =) 8802.5

Mr. González will receive a bonus of $25,000 if he reaches 5 years in the

company where he works. What is the expected value if it is known that out of every 25
Do 22 employees achieve it?

22
) (
( 25000 )
= 22000
50

9. What is the expected value for someone who buys a ticket for a raffle of $35,000 if they
Did they issue 1000?
1
( 35000 ) = 35
1000

10. A father rewards his children who achieve a minimum average of 9.5 at the end.
At the end of the semester with $15,000, what is the expected value? Consider that 70.3%
of the students reach this average.
20 - 9.5
( ) (15000) = 7875
20

11. What is the probability of a person winning a prize of $75,000 if the value
is expected to be $33,500?
33500
= 0.44667
75000

12. How much will they bonus an employee if the expected value with a probability of
Is 47% of $12,105.50?

(
12105.50 = M0.47 )
12105.50
= 25756.38
0.47

13. What are the chances for the employee in problem 11 if the expected value were
$5,922.50?
5922.50
= = 0.2299
25756.38
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

14. The university rewards its professors with a car worth $253,000, 20 items
Electronics worth $5,300 each, 40 worth $1,500 and 75 worth $450. What is the expected value?
if there are 4,200 teachers?
( 1)( 253000+) 20( 5300
)( + 401500
) ( )(+ (75)(450)
)
=
4200
= 107.7976

15. In problem 13, what will be the expected value if there were 100 prizes of $5,000 each?
one besides the car?

( 100 )(50001)times 253000

=
4200
= 179.29

16. The Oncology Research Institute is organizing a raffle for $250,000. What is the value
expected for those who participate with a ticket if there are 1,000 and each one costs
$500?

250000 − 500 = 249500

If he/she wins -----------
If it loses--------- -500

1 999
( )= ( 249500 )+−500
1000 1000
( ) = -250

16. In problem 15, what is the expected value for the Institute?

( ) = −250

17. What does it mean for the expected value to be negative?

The expected value is always between 0 and 1.

It is called 'Mathematical expectation' (it is a probability of some event). 0.33 = 33% =
1/3 of something happening.
If you multiply it by an event that can be negative, then yes. It can be.
likely that a stone is already falling; or a solution is saline (negative). Or from
that the temperature of X substance is below zero.
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

An investor has a 42% chance of winning $350,000 and a 58% chance of losing.

$125,000. What is its expected value?

(
= 0.42 )(350000 - )0.58125000
( )( )

= 74500

19. What is the expected value for a player who wins $200 if when rolling two dice the
Sum results in 9 points or more, and lose $75 otherwise?

Gain: 200
Loses: 75

{ ( ) = (3.6)(4.5)(4.6)(5.4)(5.5)(5.6)(6.3)(6.4)(6.5)(6.6}
(number of favorable cases = 9)

Probability of winning ---→1 - 0.25 = 0.75

E(x) = (200)(0.25) + (−75)(0.75) = −6.25

20. What is the probability of losing $50 for a participant in gambling if the
The probability of winning $175 is 40% and the expected value is $47.50?

Lose: P → 50
Win: 0.40175

E(x) = 47.50 = P(-50) + (0.4)(175)

47.50 = -50P + 70
-50P = -22.5
P = 0.45 → 45%

21. The expected value for a person with a chance of winning $75,000 is
$28,875. What is the probability of achieving it?

( ) = 28.875

75.000 = 28.875
28875
0.11833
75000
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

A couple of friends make a bet by tossing a coin; the loser will give $20 to the winner.
gain. What is the expected value for the one who wins?

1
( )= (20 =) 10
2

23. The new generation of civil engineers is made up of 20 students, who

they are organizing a raffle for $20,000 for their graduation expenses, issuing a thousand tickets
$100 each for their graduation expenses. Determine:

a) The mathematical expectation for the buyer of a ticket.

1
( ) Gana: 20000 - 100 =
1000
999
:− 100 =
1000
1 999
( )= ( 199900 ) minus
plus ( 100( ) ) = -80
1000 1000

b) The expected value for a partner who kept all his tickets. Consider that he
they were distributed in equal parts.

-80
( )= = -4
20
c) The expected value for another who sold only 60% of their tickets.

( ) = − 0.6
( )(80-4.8
)
d) If Sergio, another colleague, keeps the thousand tickets, what will be the expectation
mathematics?

( ) = 2000
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

24. Thirty friends organize a raffle with a prize of $40,000, two of $10,000 and five of
$5,000 each, what is the expected value for each one? How much should each contribute?
one of the losers? What should be the ticket price? Assume, of course, that the raffle is among
themselves.
1 1
( ) = (40000 )+ ( )+ 10000(
( )=)30000
2 2

25. A wine and liquor distributor organizes a raffle among its 20 best customers, with a
a prize of $20,000, another of $10,000, and two of $5,000 each. What is the expected value for
each of the 20 clients?
( 20000 ) + (10000 +5000
)
( )= = 11666.67
3

26. The Cultural Institute organizes a raffle, issuing 10,000 numbered tickets to draw.
cars and trucks, one for $425,000, two for $197,500, and 7 for $82,750. What is the
mathematical expectation for a ticket buyer if each one costs $50?

(
425000 + 2197500 + )(82750)
( )= = 225687.5
4
1
( )= ( 225687.5 )= 22.5686
10000

27. In problem 26, what is the expected value for the Institute?

( ) -50( 425000
)( = -21250000
)

28. How do you explain that the expected value was negative in problem 27?
What would it indicate if it were positive?

WHY WERE MORE TICKETS SOLD AT A LOSS

29. Three darts are thrown at a circular roulette, a wooden board that has 36 sectors of
same size at the city fair, what is the expected value for the owner if they offer
a prize of $20, 2 of $10 and 3 of $5 each, marked on the roulette? Consider that the cost
for the participant is $20 for the three opportunities.

( )( =) (20 )+ 2 10+
( )3 5 2-( 0 ) 3
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

( ) -5

30. In problem 29, what is the expected value for what is being participated in? Select the option.
correct, justifying it, in problems 31 to 56.

E(x) = 20(3) = 60

31. What is your answer to problem 29 if the disk had 48 equal sectors?

$16.0325 $14.0625 c) $20.1585 $9.0825 e) Other

( 20 )( 2)( 10+) 3 (5 )( ) 20(3)

minus
( )= = -0.104167
48

32. If the price of each shot in the problem were 5 dollars, what is the expectation?
math for the player?

-$8.6255 -$12.0457 -$10.875 -$9.6875 e) Other

( ) = 20 -5
( +) 20( + ) 35( =)(−65
)

33. What is the expected value for each employee of the truck company if in the
the next inn will be rewarded with a prize of $30,000, three of $15,000 and five of
$10,000? Consider that there are 30 participants and they can take more than one prize.

$4,166.67 $3,750.00 $4,233.33 d) $5,065.33 e) Other

( 30000 )(1+) 15000

( 3 )( )
+(5)(10000) 12500
( )= =
30 3
( ) 4166.67

34. What is the expected value in problem 33 if the 9 prizes were $20,000 each?

a) $4,500.00 $5,250.00 $3,766.67 d) $4,633.33 e) Other

9(20000)
( )= = 6000
30
 ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN MACHACA

35. What is more beneficial for the employees of the trucking company from problem 33, 10 prizes?
of $20,000 each or two of $40,000, three of $30,000, five of $15,000 each, but with
a cost of $1,000 to participate for each employee? Solve using expectation.
mathematics.

the first option the second c) it is indifferent d) ninguna de las dos e) Otra

( )) = (10 20000
)( +2) 40000
( + 315000
) ( − 1000) 15 (

E ( x) 31000 →

36. What is the fair price for each of the 100,000 tickets issued by the University of
North in its semi-annual draw, with a first prize consisting of a house worth $5,695,000,
second for a department of $1,425,000 and a third prize for a car of
$205,000?

$81.75 $68.50 $73.25 $76.98 e) Other

569500000 + 1425000 + 20500000

( )=
1000
= 81.75

37. What is the expected value for Mr. Álvarez if the company where he works gives him
offers $30,000 if he manages to stay at his service for 7 years? Consider that out of 15 employees, 12
They have achieved it.

$18,000 b) $24,000 $15,000 d) $6,000 e) Other

12
( 30000 ) = 24000
15

Accountant Lulú has a 65% chance of losing $75,000 and a 35% chance of winning.
$275,000 in your investments. What is the expected value?

$47,500 $42,250 $49,500 $45,750 e) Other

( ) = (0.65 75000
)( +) 0.35
( 275000
)( )
= 145000
 MACHACA ZEBALLOS JHOSSELYN

39. His friends bet $500 on their favorite team, what is the expected value for each one?
Of them? Suppose that if they tie, no one wins.

$425 $150 $250 d) $500 e) Another

1 1
( ) = ( )500
( + )( )500 (= 500)
2 2

40. What are the chances of a person winning a prize of $50,000 if the expected value

Is it $8,750?

43.75% 22.5% 4.375% 17.5% e) Other

P (50000=) ( =) 8750
8750
=
50000
P = 0.175 →17.5%