UNIT - I

An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support: Analytics to Manage a

Vaccine Supply Chain Effectively and Safely, Changing Business Environments and Computerized
Decision Support, Information Systems Support for Decision Making, The Concept of Decision Support
Systems (DSS), Business Analytics Overview

1) Analytics to Manage a Vaccine Supply Chain Effectively and

Safely
Introduction
• Analytics is the process of using data to find useful information, understand trends, and make
better decisions.

• Analytics can be categorized into:

• Descriptive Analytics: Focuses on understanding and interpreting historical data and trends to
provide insights into past performance.

• Predictive Analytics: Uses statistical models and machine learning to forecast future outcomes
based on historical data. (Predictive analytics forecasts future events.)

• Prescriptive Analytics: Suggests specific actions or decisions to achieve targeted outcomes by

analyzing past data and predicting the effects of different strategies.

Analytics to Manage a Vaccine Supply Chain Effectively and Safely

• A Cold chain in healthcare is defined as a temperature-controlled supply chain involving

a system of transporting and storing vaccines and pharmaceutical drugs.

• A Cold chain consists of three major components—

● Transport and storage equipment

● Trained personnel

● Efficient management procedures

• The majority of the vaccines in the cold chain are typically maintained at a temperature
of 35–46 degrees Fahrenheit [2–8 degrees Centigrade].

• Maintaining cold chain integrity is extremely important for healthcare product

manufacturers.
 • Any extreme temperatures of heat or cold will reduce vaccine potency.

• Effectively maintaining the temperatures of storage units throughout the healthcare

supply chain in real-time—i.e., beginning from the gathering of the resources,
manufacturing, distribution, and dispensing of the products—is the most effective
solution desired in the cold chain.

• Also, the location-tagged real-time environmental data about the storage units helps in
monitoring the cold chain for spoiled products.

• A study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) looked at
the handling of cold chain vaccines by 45 healthcare providers around the United States
and reported that three-quarters of the providers experienced serious cold chain
violations.

• Magpie Sensing Employs Analytics to Manage a Vaccine Supply Chain Effectively and
Safely.

• Magpie Sensing, a start-up under Ebers Smith and Douglas Associated LLC, offers cold
chain monitoring and analysis technologies for the healthcare industry.

• It provides shippable, wireless temperature and humidity monitors for real-time,

location-based tracking of cold chain products during shipment.

• Magpie Sensing uses advanced analytics algorithms to process data from these monitors,
enhancing cold chain efficiency and predicting potential storage issues before they arise.

• Magpie sensing applies all three types of analytical techniques-descriptive, predictive,

and prescriptive analytics-to turn the raw data returned from the monitoring devices into
actionable recommendations and warnings.

A. Descriptive Analytics:

• This data is visualized on a web dashboard, providing a clear picture of the cold storage
environment.

• The properties of the cold storage system, which include the set point of the storage
system's thermostat, the typical range of temperature values in the storage system, and the
duty cycle of the system's compressor, are monitored and reported in real time.

• This information helps trained personnel to ensure that the storage unit is properly
configured to store a particular product.

• All the temperature information is displayed on a Web dashboard that shows a graph of
the temperature inside the specific storage unit.
B. PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS

• Predictive Algorithms: Magpie’s system determines the storage unit's thermostat set point
and alerts users if it's incorrectly configured for various types of the stored products.

• Temperature Alerts: The system sends alerts about potential temperature violations,
predicting risks like drops below freezing due to compressor cycles.

• Human Error Detection: By analyzing temperature trends, the system identifies possible
errors such as doors left open , alerting users before temperature limits are breached. by
 analyzing the temperature trend and alerting users via Web interface, text message, or
audible alert before the temperature bounds are actually violated.

• Failure Detection: The system detects compressor or power failures and estimates the
time before unsafe temperatures are reached, helping users prepare backup solutions like
dry ice.

C. PRESCRIPTIVE ANALYTICS

• Magpie Sensing's analytics systems can provide prescriptive recommendations for

improving the cold storage processes and business decision making.

• Prescriptive analytics help users dial in the optimal temperature, balancing freezing and
spoilage risks, and providing time to prevent spoilage.

• Prescriptive analytics also gather useful meta-information on cold storage units, including
the times of day that are busiest and periods where the system's doors are opened, which
can be used to provide additional design plans and institutional policies that ensure that
the system is being properly maintained and not overused.

• Prescriptive analytics can be used to guide equipment purchase decisions by constantly

analyzing the performance of current storage units.

Summary: Analytics to Manage a Vaccine Supply Chain Effectively and Safely

• Magpie Sensing is a technology that uses data from cold storage monitoring devices to
provide actionable insights and recommendations.

• Magpie sensing applies all three types of analytical techniques-descriptive, predictive,

and prescriptive analytics-to turn the raw data returned from the monitoring devices into
actionable recommendations and warnings.

• Data Collection: It collects real-time data on temperature, humidity, and compressor

activity.

• Descriptive Analytics: This data is visualized on a web dashboard, providing a clear

picture of the cold storage environment.

• Predictive Analytics: By analyzing data patterns, Magpie can predict potential issues like
temperature violations, equipment failures, and human errors. It provides alerts to prevent
problems before they occur.

• Prescriptive Analytics: Magpie offers recommendations to optimize cold storage

operations, including setting optimal temperatures, identifying peak usage times, and
suggesting equipment upgrades.
2) CHANGING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENTS AND COMPUTERIZED
DECISION SUPPORT
• Previous topic illustrated how a company can employ technologies to make sense of data
and make better decisions.

• Companies are moving aggressively to computerized support of their operations.

• To understand why companies are embracing computerized support, including business

intelligence, Ramesh Sharda ,Dursun Delen And Efraim Turban developed a model
called the Business Pressures-Responses -Support Model.

• The Business Pressures–Responses–Support Model :

The Business Pressures–Responses–Support Model, as its name

indicates, has three components:

1. Business pressures that result from today’s business climate,

2. Responses (actions taken) by companies to counter the pressures (or to take advantage of
the opportunities available in the environment)

3. Computerized support that facilitates the monitoring of the environment and enhances the
response actions taken by organizations.(Support to better facilitate the process )

Fig : Business pressures -Responses -support model

[Link] Business Environment:

• Today's business environment is increasingly complex, creating both opportunities and

challenges.

• Globalization, for example, allows companies to find suppliers and customers worldwide,
which means you can buy cheaper materials and sell more of your products and services.
However, it also brings stronger competition.

• Business environment factors can be divided into four major categories: markets,
consumer demands, technology, and societal. These categories are summarized in Table
1.1.

In addition, organizations and departments within organizations face decreased budgets and
amplified pressures from top managers to increase performance and profit. Companies face
rising pressures to perform better with fewer resources

B. ORGANIZATIONAL RESPONSES:

• Responses (actions taken) by companies to counter the pressures (or to take advantage
of the opportunities available in the environment)
 • Be Reactive, Anticipative, Adaptive, And Proactive

• Private and public organizations are aware of today’s business environment and pressures
, take different actions to counter pressure.

• Vodafone New Zealand, for instance, used BI to improve communication, retain

customers, and increase revenue

• Managers may take other actions, including the following:

– Employ strategic planning.

– Improve partnership relationships.

– Respond quickly to competitors' actions

– Participate in business alliances.

– Use new and innovative business models.

C. Decisions and Support represents the actual decision-making process, enabled by business
intelligence and Integrated Computerized Decision Support tools.

• These tools provide the necessary data and analysis to make decisions.

• This component represents the decision-making process and the tools and resources that
can support it. It includes:

• Analyses: Examining data and information to identify trends, patterns, and

insights(Analyzing data)

• Predictions: Forecasting future outcomes based on available data.(Making predictions)

• Decisions: Making informed choices about the best course of action(Offering support
(advice))

• Business Intelligence provides the data and analysis needed for decision-making.

• Integrated Computerized Decision Support provides the technology to support the

decision-making process.
Definitions
• Information Systems Support involves using technology to enhance decision-making.

• Business Intelligence (BI): Analyzes data to create reports, dashboards, and

visualizations, helping users understand past and present data.

• Business Intelligence (BI) focuses on analyzing historical and current data through
reports, dashboards, and visualizations to provide insights into past and present
performance, while Decision Support Systems (DSS) uses interactive tools and models
for prescriptive and predictive analysis to assist in evaluating options and making
decisions in complex or uncertain situations.

• BI is centered around reporting and visualizing data to understand past and current states,
while DSS provides tools and models to guide decisions and predict future outcomes.

3) Information Systems Support for Decision Making

• Computers have moved from basic tasks like payroll to complex management decisions.

• Computer applications have moved from transaction processing and monitoring

activities to problem analysis and solution applications, and much of the activity is done
with Web-based technologies, in many cases accessed through mobile devices.

• Analytics and BI tools such as data warehousing, data mining, dashboards, and the use of
the Web for decision support are the cornerstones of today’s modern management.

• Besides growth in hardware, software, and networks capacities, several developments

have significantly enhanced decision support and analytics, including the following:

• Group communication and collaboration.

• Improved data management

• Managing giant data warehouses and Big Data.

• Analytical support

• Overcoming cognitive limits in processing and storing information

• Knowledge management

• Anywhere, any time support.

1. Group communication and collaboration.

– Teams often work together remotely using web tools and smartphones.
 – This is especially useful for supply chain partners who need to share information.

– Bringing everyone together in one place is expensive, so technology helps teams

collaborate from different locations.

2. Improved data management

– Many decisions involve complex computations.

– Data for these can be stored in different databases anywhere in the organization
and even possibly at Web sites outside the organization.

– The data may include text,sound, graphics, and video, and they can be in different
languages.

– It may be necessary to transmit data quickly from distant locations.

3. Managing giant data warehouses and Big Data.

– Large data warehouses, like the ones operated by Walmart, contain terabytes and
even petabytes of data.

– Special methods, including parallel computing, are available to organize, search,

and mine the data.

– The costs related to data warehousing are getting lower.

4. Analytical support.

• With more data and analysis technologies, more alternatives can be evaluated, forecasts
can be improved and the views of experts (some of whom may be in remote locations)
can be collected quickly and at a reduced cost.

• Expertise can even be derived directly from analytical systems.

• With such tools, decision makers can perform complex simulations, check many possible
scenarios, and assess diverse impacts quickly and economically.

5. Overcoming cognitive limits in processing and storing information.

• The human mind has only a limited ability to process and store information.

• People sometimes find it difficult to recall and use information in an error-free fashion
due to their cognitive limits.

• The term cognitive limits indicates that an individual's problem-solving capability is

limited when a wide range of diverse information and knowledge is required.
 • Computerized systems enable people to overcome their cognitive limits by quickly
accessing and processing vast amounts of stored information

6. Knowledge management.

• Knowledge management (KM) is the process of organizing, creating, using, and sharing
collective knowledge within an organization

• Organizations have gathered vast stores of information about their own operations,
customers, internal procedures, employee interactions, and so forth through the
unstructured and structured communications taking place among the various
stakeholders.

• Knowledge management systems have become sources of formal and informal

support for decision making to managers, although sometimes they may not even be
called KMS.

7. Anywhere, any time support.

• Using wireless technology, managers can access information anytime and from any
place, analyze and interpret it, and communicate with those involved.

• This perhaps is the biggest change that has occurred in the last few years.

• The speed at which information needs to be processed and converted into decisions has
truly changed expectations for both consumers and businesses.
4) THE CONCEPT OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS)

• Definition 1: In the early 1970s, Scott-Morton defined decision support systems (DSS) as
"interactive computer-based systems, which help decision makers utilize data and models to
solve unstructured problems" (Gorry and Scott-Morton, 1971).

• Definition 2: The following is another classic DSS definition, provided by Keen and Scott-Morton
0978):

“Decision support systems couple the intellectual resources of individuals with the capabilities of the
computer to improve the quality of decisions. It is a computer-based support system for management
decision makers who deal with semistructured problems.”

Components of DSS:

● DSS Database

● DSS Software System

● DSS User Interface

Types of DSS:

● Data driven DSS

● Model driven DSS

● Knowledge driven DSS

● Document driven DSS

● Communication driven DSS

• Components of DSS:

• DSS Database: Stores and manages comprehensive data sets essential for analysis and decision-
making. Salesforce fits this component by storing customer and sales data for effective analysis.

• Software System: Includes models to simulate systems and predict outcomes. IBM SPSS fits this
component by offering statistical modeling and predictive analytics.

• User Interface: Facilitates interaction with the system through various interface types. Tableau
supports this component by providing interactive dashboards and visualizations, although it
primarily focuses on data visualization.

• Types of DSS:

• Data Driven DSS: Focuses on analyzing and interpreting large amounts of data to support
decision-making. Examples include systems that provide detailed reports and dashboards based
on data queries.

• Model Driven DSS: Uses mathematical, statistical, or simulation models to analyze complex
scenarios and predict outcomes. These systems help in decision-making by simulating various
options.

• Knowledge Driven DSS: Relies on a knowledge base to provide recommendations based on

expert knowledge and rules. These systems help with decisions by applying predefined
knowledge and expertise.

• Document Driven DSS: Manages and retrieves documents to support decision-making. These
systems help users access and utilize documents and reports relevant to their decisions.
 • Communication Driven DSS: Focuses on facilitating communication and collaboration among
users to support decision-making. These systems enhance group decision-making through
shared communication platforms.

DSS as an Umbrella Term:

• The term Decision Support System (DSS) acts as an umbrella to cover various types of
computerized systems that help with decision-making in organizations.

• Knowledge Management System: Under this umbrella, a company might have a system that
helps everyone solve problems by providing useful information and guidelines.

• Specialized Support Systems: Another organization might use different DSS systems for specific
areas like marketing, finance, and accounting, each designed to help with decisions in those
particular fields.

• Supply Chain Management (SCM) System: This is a type of DSS that helps with managing
production processes by optimizing the supply chain.

• Rule-Based Systems: These systems help with tasks like diagnosing product issues or providing
help desk support by following a set of rules.

5) Evolution of DSS into Business Intelligence and The Architecture of Bl

Evolution of DSS into Business Intelligence

• Initially, DSS tools helped managers with supportive analysis, using staff to run analyses. As PC
technology improved, managers became more tech-savvy and realized that technology could
speed up and enhance decision-making.

• New tools like OLAP, data warehousing, data mining, and intelligent systems, delivered through
the web, provided better access and capabilities for decision-making. By the mid-1990s, these
tools were known as Business Intelligence (BI) and business analytics.

Business intelligence (BI)

• Business intelligence (BI) is a set of technological processes for collecting, managing and
analyzing organizational data to yield insights that inform business strategies and operations.

• BI provides interactive, real-time access to data, allows for data manipulation, and supports
analysis.

• Process: BI transforms data into information, then into decisions, and finally into actions

The Architecture of Bl

• A BI system has four major components:

 – Data warehouse, with its source data

– Business analytics, a collection of tools for manipulating, mining, and analyzing the data
in the data warehouse;

– Business performance management {BPM) for monitoring and analyzing performance

– User interface (e.g., a dashboard).

DEFINITIONS:

• Analytics is the science of analyzing raw data to make conclusions about that information.
Analytics is the broadest term that encompasses both Decision Support Systems (DSS) and
Business Intelligence (BI).

• DSS (Decision Support Systems): Specialized tools within business analytics designed to assist in
specific decision-making tasks.(EX:AnyLogic)

• BI (Business Intelligence): Evolved from DSS to include a wider range of activities such as data
warehousing, data mining, and reporting, and is a key component of business analytics.(Power
BI)

• Business Analytics: Business analytics specifically uses statistical methods and technologies to
analyze historical data for insights and improved decision-making.

• Analytics refers to the broad practice of examining and interpreting raw data to uncover
patterns, trends, and insights across any domain, not limited to business. It is used in a variety of
fields, such as healthcare, sports, finance, marketing, engineering, and more.

• The main goal of business analytics is to provide businesses with actionable insights for
improving efficiency, identifying market opportunities, forecasting trends, and supporting
strategic decision-making.
Business Analytics Overview

The Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) has created a major
initiative to organize and promote analytics.

According to INFORMS, analytics represents the combination of computer technology,

management science techniques, and statistics to solve real problems.

This idea of looking at all the data to understand what is happening , what will happen, and how
to make the best of it has also been represented by INFORMS in proposing three levels of
analytics.

These three levels are identified as descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive.

Figure 1 presents two graphical views of these three levels of analytics.

One view suggests that these three are somewhat independent steps (of a ladder) and one type
of analytics application leads to another.

The interconnected circles view suggests that there is actually some overlap across these three
types of analytics.

In either case, the interconnected nature of different types of analytics applications is evident.

FIGURE 1
[Link] Analytics

Descriptive Analytics: Focuses on understanding and interpreting historical data and trends to
provide insights into past performance.

Descriptive or reporting analytics refers to knowing what is happening in the organization and
understanding some underlying trends and causes of such occurrences.

This involves, first of all, consolidation of data sources and availability of all relevant data in a
form that enables appropriate reporting and analysis. Usually development of this data
infrastructure is part of data warehouses.

From this data infrastructure we can develop appropriate reports, queries,alerts, and trends
using various reporting tools and techniques.

Visualization tools like Tableau are key in descriptive analytics, providing insights into
organizational operations such as patient flow, resource allocation, and disease tracking.
Healthcare case studies and interactive dashboards are available on Tableau's site.

[Link] analytics

Predictive analytics is the process of using historical data to predict future outcomes. It's about
answering the question, "What is likely to happen?“

Predictive Analytics: Uses statistical models and machine learning to forecast future outcomes
based on historical data. (Predictive analytics forecasts future events.)

Future-oriented: Unlike descriptive analytics which focuses on the past, predictive analytics
looks ahead.

Statistical foundation: It's rooted in statistical methods, providing a rigorous approach to

analysis

Data mining integration: It incorporates advanced data mining techniques to extract valuable
insights from large datasets.

Real-world Applications

Customer churn prediction: Analyzes past customer behavior to predict which customers are
likely to leave.

Customer segmentation: Uses data patterns to group customers and forecast their future
preferences for targeted campaigns.
 Product recommendations: Predicts which products customers are likely to buy based on
previous purchases.

Fraud detection: Identifies patterns in transaction data to predict and flag potential fraudulent
activities.

Risk assessment: Evaluates past data to estimate future risks in industries like finance and
insurance.

Key Techniques

Classification: Categorizing data into predefined groups. For instance, predicting if a customer
will churn or not (yes/no).

Decision Trees: Creating a tree-like model of decisions and their possible consequences.

Neural Networks: Mimicking the human brain to identify patterns.

Clustering: Grouping similar data points together. For example, segmenting customers based on
purchasing behavior.

Association Mining: Discovering relationships between items. For instance, finding that
customers who buy bread also tend to buy butter.

[Link] Analytics

The goal of prescriptive analytics is to recognize what is going on as well as the likely forecast
and make decisions to achieve the best performance possible.

The goal here is to provide a decision or a recommendation for a specific action.

These recommendations can be in the forms of a specific yes/no decision for a problem, a
specific amount (say, price for a specific item or airfare to charge), or a complete set of
production plans.

The decisions may be presented to a decision maker in a report or may directly be used in an
automated decision rules system (e.g., in airline pricing systems). Prescriptive analytics helps
airlines determine dynamic pricing by analyzing factors like demand, booking patterns, and
competitor prices.

Prescriptive analytics helps ride-sharing companies like Ola and Uber set optimal and dynamic
pricing based on real-time data and demand patterns.

Healthcare Treatment Plans: Prescriptive analytics can suggest personalized treatment plans for
patients by analyzing medical history, treatment effectiveness, and patient outcomes.

Tools used to support prescriptive analytics are

Optimization: Google OR-Tools is widely used tools for solving complex optimization problems,
including logistics and scheduling.

Simulation: SIMUL8 is popular for modeling various scenarios and assessing their effects on
business processes.

Decision Modeling: Lucidchart is effective tools for creating decision trees and frameworks to
help analyze and visualize decision-making processes.

Expert Systems: IBM Watson provide expert system capabilities for applications like medical
diagnostics and customer support, leveraging advanced AI and machine learning technologies.