[Forwarded from moorekapitalFX Trade Journal (Tim moore)]
SIMPLIFIED THOUGHT PROCESS——
📉TO SELL
If you're bearish bias,example,you have some HTF area of interest where you wanna sell against.....
FIRST 🛎
Wait for price to Stop Hunt some old High, thereby creating something like a HH. (This is your LBUR
—-Last Bull Range)
SECOND 🛎
Next is to locate your Highest straw in the LBUR in the form of the Highest downclose
candle(Highest Red bar) , Highest upward window(Highest Gap), Highest VI. And Sell against
them,when price trades and closes below them.
The logic is this———If we are still bullish,then, these bullish straws should be supportive to price.
Therefore, once we close below them, they flip role to become the best resistance to prevent price
from going anymore higher!🔨
Tim moore, [25/03/2022 11:46]
[Forwarded from moorekapitalFX Trade Journal (Tim moore)]
SIMPLIFIED THOUGHT PROCESS——
📈TO BUY
If you're bullish bias,example,you have some HTF area of interest where you wanna buy from,
FIRST 🛎
Wait for price to Stop Hunt some old low, thereby creating something like a LL. (This is your LBER—-
Last Bear Range)
SECOND 🛎
Next is to locate your lowest straw in the LBER in the form of the lowest upclose candle(Lowest Blue
bar) , lowest downward window(Lowest Gap), lowest VI. And buy against them,when price trades
and closes above them.
The logic is this———If we are still bearish,then, these bearish straws should be resistive to price.
Therefore, once we close above them, they flip role to become the best support to lift price off the
grounds!✈️
Retracements are pair with imbalances. If there are no imbalances than no retracement is
needed
I have zoomed in too what is important. If you look closely the (2 Purple dots) create a range..and
price runs below the range( GRAY DOT).I am currently not looking for opportunities but I’m paying
attention to narrative (context)…as we take liquidity price closes back inside the range..to me the
narrative at this point has been set. I have pre determined that price is bullish..now I am waiting for
my rules. The first rule being price must break structure (bodies must close above previous high an
up candle specifically) we get this with the ( RED DOT). Now, price has broke structure I am referring
to the leg that broke structure and I’m looking for imbalances..why? We just took liquidity..what’s
next imbalances..from the structure alone I see a type 2 leg meaning liquidity exist or stops are
below the ( YELLOW DOT)..but pay close attention..there is an imbalance lower…with the candle that
set the narrative..(GRAY DOT) that candle is a bullish candle that creates a low with a wick. Now, I
buy. My target is the blue dot.
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:10]
Now if you want to stack entries
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:10]
After the low is formed coming into the imbalance..I would stack entries every time rule 1 is created
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:10]
OBS that broke structure
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:11]
The algo is allowed to continue delivery.
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:11]
The manipulation is over.
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from Stkish-The Currency Merchant]
1. Liquidity
2. Imbalance
3. Liquidity
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from Stkish-The Currency Merchant]
Where is it?
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from siruey.monkmode]
Wick
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from Stkish-The Currency Merchant]
Show me the imbalance 😊
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from Saaida]
Could you enter there using the reclaimed ob before the bms?
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from siruey.monkmode]
That circle
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from siruey.monkmode]
that is the imbalance
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from Stkish-The Currency Merchant]
This completes the delivery cycle and price is allowed to trade higher
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from siruey.monkmode]
So first price raids the real low…(stop hunt) aka manipulation…price than starts creating a buy
program…we wait for the BOS closing bodies…than imbalance to BSL
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
[Forwarded from siruey.monkmode]
Lows are supposed to be made with down candles.
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
In this fashion.
siruey.monkmode, [26/03/2022 17:12]
ORDERFLOW.
Specifically the lows were made before NYO
Liquidity - Imbalance - Liquidity - Imbalance
A rule - A low formed by up an up candle is imbalance, a high formed by a down candle is imbalance.
Look at the wicks
“If you believe in the algo you gotta accept that the algo needs a range to work within. Or it becomes
unstable and prone to failure.
It needs a look back range.
A sorting function for that range
Then a new range defined with sorted values.
These values become target for future delivery AKA the draw 🙃”
Chaddy, [27/03/2022 15:28]
50% of long wicks are usually imbalances
Chaddy, [27/03/2022 15:29]
Also the last thing price did was take liquidity
AUDNZD 5M
Meshach King, [27/03/2022 15:44]
All that happened in 5 minutes. Damn
So imbalance to liquidity I see.
One hell of a LRLR
[Forwarded from Stkish-The Currency Merchant Kishane robinson]
If you believe in the algo you gotta accept that the algo needs a range to work within. Or it becomes
unstable and prone to failure.
It needs a look back range.
A sorting function for that range
Then a new range defined with sorted values.
These values become target for future delivery AKA the draw 🙃
Every arrow is an entry. This is the easy Analysis
Now a more structured approach
Pattern Recognition Training. Analyze this chart
My quick breakdown of the chart
CM Breakdown. (Study this)
1 More for the culture.
CM Breakdown - the diagonal lines are depicting a Symmetrical Price swing
WHEN THE MODEL FORMS I WILL MANAGE THE RISK.
I zoomed into that bit of PA. Cant go to LTF but look at the fractal now
Watch both trades come alive
This is understanding over Fear
Take aways are: See the point where Bearish delivery was to be expected? See how the retracement
went back to the -OB? ….That second one could be at 50% of the +OB confluence behaves when the
narrative is in play
1. Price was efficiently traded up there
2. Almost a 3 drive up there
3. LRLR below
4. Down made by a long-wicked bullish candle =Imbalance =magnetic to price!
Example breakdown 1
Example 2
This is how you should backtest and journal. Pick a timeframe and see how many times the rules
offered trades. What time they form etc. How could you manage the money and manage the risk.
Then trading becomes less emotional and you just do what you practice.
Back in the day, this is how I used to journal. On the charts and screenshot. Everything under the
BOS line is efficiently traded: buy buy buy buy buy all or nothing
June 2021
"The market does not move from consolidation to reversal.
Take note of when market trades to the midpoint of a consol and why. It is retracement to 50% of
the range"
PM12 WITH TIME AND PRICE
GOLD 8:30 entry - How ironic exit AR-2 you can't make it up
THANK YOU ICT
How clean is that ladies and gentlemen I don't know about you but that is not random that is
precision I don't guess WE THANK ICT the question is this WHEN DO YOU KNOW IT WILL GET THERE
now what if I told you 19 hours in advance ⚒️⚒️⚒️every day every week and it's not gonna stop
5 textbook entries
Bankaholics Exercise:
WDYS?
Pay attention where we trade to first. The delivery for the next hour depends on it
If there is a stop hunt above this new high, trade is over. Targeting fvg below for 15 pips or so
Whatever happens now is just random…..No higher is allowed. Once this candle closes, I don’t want
to be in if there is a stop hunt at that fvg.
Fvg filter should be used now. If this next candle doesn’t close the imbalance, I’m closing.
Stops breakeven and rest now. Take the 15 pips and run. Next 5min or so will determine is we open
and hunt stops or trade lower
Good management. Expecting slow delivery now
This is why i wanted to see the fvg in premium used first. Now liquidity is being sought. My trade
idea turned into a low probability retracement rather than an expansion.
Stops were taken, reversal to fair value...
Now where is the liquidity? Lastly, note that an fvg was traded to and there was no short term low
for liquidity, price then engineered both buy and sell-side to get to the discount fvg. This was a good
lesson to trust price delivery and manage risk accordingly.
After my entry, there was no bos. Only a void. So price then created a high and and low, and ran it.
When can you expect a consol? When there’s no more liquidity in the range. Around 50%
So with everything i outlining, you can create rules for entry, management, and no trade.
Those rules keep you out of losses, even when you read the delivery wrong like I did
And they can also provide a plethora of high probability patterns you can ANTICIPATE when time and
time align
m1 small targets. Find the narrative and let price submit to time🅿️
What should price do now? Whats the narrative?
1. Entry at fvg
2. Sell stops, confirming direction
3. Fvg
4. Sell stops
5. BUY STOPS ***
When liquidity is taken on both sides of the market, expect a void to be created in price , aka , zoom
model expansion
6. Terminus✅
No more liquidity below market, consol likely. This analysis was done using H1 and m1.
You don’t need more insight, just practice reading the narrative. Focus on time and price - how it
delivers, and what moves occur the fastest. Where did retail lose at? Where does ipda want to take
price, and why is the real objective not the ‘obvious’ one?
I was confident because we took PDH, closed below an fvg, and there was an obvious discount draw
on liquidity. Virtually no retracements on the buyside of the curve.
Focus on the details and you’ll be able to anticipate what you should see happen, and walk away
when it doesn’t
Prepare, filter out an opportunity without marrying a bias, and capitalize when you’re right, only
allowing risk allocation within strict time windows, based on when your setup forms
I didnt have a bias outside of pdh taken. If we traded to that fvg earlier is discount, i wouldve bought
with equal confidence
Why did price fill in 2 imbalances in a row? There was no liquidity to be had, so the algo must now
engineer new liquidity.
AU Weekly
AU daily ,Anticipating deep retracements for the bulk of next month
Gold is clearly being held
Gold Daily. Imbalance FILLED. 1976 highs looking nice for manipulation
Nas weekly. I'd rather a turtle soup at the highs before a deep retracement.
Nas Daily. Cheeky lil minx. NFP plus end of the first quarter.
No clear direction yet but i'm favoring lower. Expectations reduced for now.
Hindsight Study looking for 3 highest probability setups
Using March 21-25th, Determine the top 3 setups for AU (7-2PM EST NY SESSION) AND GJ (6PM-1AM
ASIAN SESSION)
Upload a saved image to drive link pinned to the corresponding day of week, and pair. You can
choose the timeframe to frame the setup, if it agrees with your model, show us.
***Title the image as follows: tele @name, x ranked setup out of 3 ex: @bankaholic #1 = best
setup… etc
March 22 had the highest probability Asian trade for AU. This setup is called Asian Mitigation.
March 23 had the highest probability NY trade for AU. Zoom model in Discount, targeting London
High in an underlying bullish market.
GJ had primarily low quality setups unless i used m1. This was the highest probability NY trade
HIghest Probability Asian Trade for GJ. Fading the run above PDH. Was day 24 not highest prob?
Seems a very good trade too but it was longs that formed in premium. It's automatically not highest
prob because it formed in premium. It is a really good setup which is why i left it on the chart.
Q: What criteria defines the highest probability between those two you highlighted
*A: it formed in premium. So if i took it I would reduce risk, If you taking a trade and feel the need to
reduce risk then probability is lower. Based on my rules. setups that form in discount are high prob
longs.
BONUS: Dissect and study.
This is a subjective PA study. If this was the only information available to you. Timeframe is
irrelevant. What would be your interpretation and trade plan?
External raid to internal liquidity. Logical conclusion since we have highs in premium and we are in
deep discount.
My interpretation. Keep it simple. Define the range and arrays. Check where we are in the range.
Check for closest imbalance and liquidity.
This happened next. What's your plan? something very important!!!!! If the range is efficiently
traded, why anticipate a run lower? To seek arrays for next bullish expansion. For bearishness we
needed internal liquidity run and an IMMEDIATE breakdown. However price ran higher than the
liquidity. Do you see any +OBs in the run up? So seeing as we have now ran both sides where would
you be eyeing? Imbalances in the delivery.
BSL taken AND higher prices rejected. What's your plan here?
*Fast move to grab the liquidity usually hints reversal
In this case focus on what invalidates your short idea and the rest is easy to see. As soon as we get
confirmation that the delivery is bearish. Load the boat. This is how we study. Remove the
timeframe factor and you are forced to see only the PA.
First Willingness of the algo to reprice lower. This is where most persons miss the move.
Complete delivery cycle. This fractal holds layered understanding. That FVG holds a lot of narrative.
Q: I once heard ICT say, Since the FVG is rebalanced and we haven't had an up-close candle deliver it
to it, we could get sharp rejections from it. Now, If it was one rejection fair enough, but two. I can't
understand twice.
*A: When the sell side delivery started at the high, what was the target? Until that is hit, all
imbalances come out to play. But the ones built around buyside narrative will always get mitigated.
Write that down.
