Student Learning Outcomes

By the end of this chapter, students will be able to:

· Understand the role and importance of model building and their real-world applications
· Build basic statistical models for real world problems and test their performance
· Understand and explain experimental design in data science
· Explain the types, uses, methods of data visualizations,
· Understand the benefits of visualizing data through descriptive statistics
· Explain and create a data visualization using data visualization software (for example MS
Excel, Google Sheets, Python, Tableau, or Matplotlib).

Introduction
Data analytics is the process of examining data to find useful information, patterns are
trends to help in decision making.
5.1 Basic Statistical Concepts
Statistics is a branch of mathematics that helps us understand and analyze data. By using
statistics, we can summarize large sets of information in a simple way, making it easier to
draw conclusions. By using statistics large sets of information can be summarized in
simple way making it easier to analyze and draw conclusions.
5.1.1 Measures of Central Tendency
Measures of central tendency help us find the “center” or typical value in a set of data.
There are three main measures of central tendency: mean, median, and mode. These
measures give us a sense of the average or most common values in a dataset.
Mean
The mean is the average of all the numbers in a data set. To find the mean, we add all the
numbers together and divide by the total number of values.
Example: Imagine 5 students scored 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90 in a test. The mean score is
calculated by adding all the scores and then dividing by the number of students:

Mode
The mode is the number that appears most often in a data set. There can be more than
one mode if multiple numbers appear with the same highest frequency. The mode helps
us identify the most frequent or common value in the data.
Example: If 5 students scored 50, 60, 70, 70, and 90, the number 70 appears twice, while
all other numbers appear only once. Therefore, the mode is 70.
Example with Multiple Modes: If the scores were 50, 60, 70, 70, 60, and 90, both 60 and 70
appear twice. So, there are two modes: 60 and 70.
Median
The median is the middle value when the numbers are arranged in order. If there is an
odd number of values, the median is the exact middle number. If there is an even
number of values, the median is the average of the two middle numbers.
Example: Using the same test scores: 50, 60, 70, 80, and 90. When we arrange these
scores in ascending order (which they already are), the middle value is 70. Therefore, the
median score is 70. Example with Even Numbers: If the scores were 50, 60, 70, and 80, we
would take the average of the two middle scores (60 and 70):
Median = (60+70)/2= 65, the median is 65.
The median helps us understand the middle point of the data.
5.1.2 Measures of Dispersion
Measures of dispersion tell us how spread out or scattered the data is. Two common
measures of dispersion are variance and standard deviation. These help us understand
whether the data points are close to the average (mean) or far from it.
Variance
The variance shows how much the numbers in a data set differ from the mean. A higher
variance means that the numbers are more spread out, while a lower variance means
that the numbers are closer to the mean. To calculate variance, we use the following
mathematical formula.

Where: xi represents each individual value in the data set, μ is the mean of the data
set, N is the total number of values in the data set.
Steps are involved in variance calculations:
Step 1: Variance for Class A
Given Score = 50,52,55,57,60
Step 1.1: Compute the Mean (μ)
Step 1.2: Compute Each Squared Deviation ((x −μ2)

Step 1.3: Compute Variance

Step 2: Variance for Class B

Given Scores: 30,45,55,75,90

Step 2.3: Compute Variance

· Variance of Class A: 12.56

· Variance of Class B: 454
This confirms that Class B has a much higher variance, meaning the scores are more
spread out compared to Class A.
5.2.3.2 Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is similar to variance but provides a more practical number. It
tells us how spread out the numbers are in relation to the mean. The standard deviation
is simply the square root of the variance. To calculate standard deviation, we use the
following mathematical formula.

Standard Deviation

Where: x represents each individual value in the data set,

μ is the mean of the data set, N is the total number of values in the data set.
Calculating Standard Deviation:

The standard deviation for Class A is approximately 3.55, while for Class B, it is about
21.26. This means that Class A's scores are closely packed around the mean, whereas
Class B's scores are more widely scattered. The standard deviation helps us easily
understand how much variation there is in the scores.
5.2.4 Introduction to Probability
Probability is the study of how likely an event is to happen. It helps us predict outcomes
based on what we know.
Example: Consider flipping a coin. There are two possible outcomes: heads or tails.
Since both outcomes are equally likely, the probability of getting heads is 50% (or 1/2),
and the probability of getting tails is also 50%.
We can express this mathematically as:
Probability =

In the case of the coin flip:

Probability of heads = (1 favorable outcome, 2 total outcomes)
Probability is not just for coin flips. It is used in many areas, such as predicting the
weather, making business decisions, or even playing cricket.
For illustration, you can use the following sample data: 3, 5, 8, 8, 10, 12, 15, 15, 16, 18. But
if you are interested in collecting real data from your classmates, you are welcome to do
so.

Class Activity
Instructions: You will analyze a small dataset, calculate measures of central
tendency (mean, median, mode), and measures of dispersion (variance and
standard deviation).
1. Collect Data: Imagine you are surveying your classmates about the
number of hours they spend on homework in a week. Gather data
from 10 classmates. Record the number of hours (you can use any
reasonable numbers, e.g., between 0 to 20 hours).
2. Calculate Measures of Central Tendency:
• Mean: Calculate the average number of hours spent on homework.
• Median: Determine the middle value when the hours are arranged in
order.
• Mode: Identify which number appears most frequently in your data.
6. Calculate Measures of Dispersion:
• Variance: Use the formula to calculate variance based on your data.
• Standard Deviation: Calculate the standard deviation using the
variance you found.
9. Reflect: Write a brief reflection (3-4 sentences) about what these
calculations tell you regarding your classmates' study habits.

5.2 Data Collection and Preparation

In order to carry out any research or analysis, data collection and preparation are crucial
steps. The quality and relevance of the data directly impact the results and insights
drawn from the study. This section discusses various methods of data collection and
how the collected data is prepared for further analysis.
5.2.1 Data Collection Methods
Data collection refers to the process of gathering relevant information for a particular
purpose. Depending on the nature of the research, different methods can be used for
data collection. These methods include surveys, observations, and experiments, each
having its own strengths and suitable contexts. Choosing the right method depends on
the research objective and the type of data required.
5.2.1.1 Surveys
Surveys are a commonly used method for collecting large amounts of data in a
structured way. These involve asking a predefined set of questions to a sample group.
Surveys can be conducted using various means such as online forms, telephone calls, or
face-to-face interviews.
Example: A small local grocery store in Islamabad wants to know customer preferences
regarding which products they would like to see more frequently. They create a short
survey consisting of five questions which is depicted in Figure and distribute it to 50
customers over a weekend. The collected responses are then analyzed to stock products
that align with customer demand, improving business operations.
Customer Preference Survey
1. Which product categories do you buy most often? (e.g., fruits, vegetables, dairy)
2. Are there any products you would like to see more often?
3. How often do you shop at this grocery store? (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly)
4. What influences your purchasing decisions the most? (e.g., price, quality,
availability)
5. Any additional comments or suggestions?
5.2.1.2 Observations
Observation involves collecting data by watching or monitoring subjects in their natural
environment. This method is useful when researchers want to gather data on behaviors
or phenomena without interference.
Example: A restaurant is interested in knowing which tables are most frequently chosen
by customers during lunchtime. A staff member observes the seating choices over a
period of one week. Based on this observation, the restaurant arranges its seating to
optimize the comfort and flow of customer traffic, which helps in improving customer
satisfaction and service efficiency.
5.2.1.3 Experiments
Experiments involve manipulating one or more variables to determine their effect on
another variable. This method is particularly useful in scientific and engineering fields
where controlled environments are necessary for accurate measurement.
Example: A school teacher wants to test whether providing students with printed notes
helps improve their performance in exams. The teacher conducts an experiment with
two groups of students, one receiving printed notes and the other relying solely on
lectures. After one month, both groups took the same test, and the teacher compared
the results to see if printed notes had a positive impact on performance.
5.2.2 Data Preparation
Once data has been collected, it is important to prepare it for analysis. This includes
cleaning the data to remove errors or inconsistencies, organizing it in a meaningful way,
and converting it into a format suitable for analysis. In cases where data is missing or
incorrect, researchers may need to employ techniques such as interpolation or statistical
adjustments to ensure accuracy.
Example: If survey responses contain incomplete information, missing values can be
estimated based on the available data. Proper data preparation ensures that the analysis
leads to reliable and valid results.
5.2.3 Data Cleaning and Transformation
Data cleaning and transformation are important steps to prepare data for analysis. Raw
data often has errors, missing values, or may be in the wrong format. To ensure accurate
results in analysis, it is important to fix these issues before moving forward.
5.2.3.1 Data Cleaning
Data cleaning means correcting or removing any problems in the data. These problems
can include incorrect entries, missing values, or duplicate data. If these errors are not
fixed, the results of the analysis will be misleading.
Example: Imagine a school collecting data on student scores. Some students may have
entered their names incorrectly, or a few scores may be missing from the records. In this
case, data cleaning would involve correcting any wrong names and finding the missing
grades to complete the dataset. Figure 5.2, illustrates the data cleaning process for
student scores in a school. It shows examples of common issues such as incorrect names,
missing scores and duplicate entries.
Table 5.2: Graphical Representation of Data Cleaning for Student Grade Records
5.2.3.2 Data Transformation
Once the data is clean, it is often necessary to transform it into a format that is easy to
work with. This transformation may include converting data into different formats,
creating new columns, or organizing data in a different way. These changes help make
the data more suitable for analysis or modeling.
Example: After cleaning the student grade records, it may be necessary to transform
this data for better analysis. For instance, instead of displaying grades for each individual
student, the data.
5.3.1.1 Handling Missing Data
Sometimes, data is incomplete or has missing values. There are different techniques to
handle missing data. One option is to remove the rows with missing values if they are
very few. Another option is to fill in the missing values with an average or with data from
similar cases. The choice depends on the type of data and the amount of missing
information.
Example: In the dataset of student grades, if Sara's grade is missing, this creates a
challenge in assessing her performance. To address this issue, several strategies can be
employed:
1. Imputation: One common method is to estimate the missing value using
existing data. Example: The school can calculate the average score of all
students in Sara's class. If the average score is 87, the school may assign this
value to Sara's record temporarily. This approach allows the school to maintain a
complete dataset while making a reasonable assumption about Sara's
performance.
2. Flagging: The school can also keep track of Sara's missing score by adding a
note in the dataset. This method indicates that Sara's score is not available,
making analysts aware of the incomplete data. This approach ensures
transparency while allowing the analysis to proceed without filling in the gap.
3. Removal: If the number of missing entries is small, the school might choose to
exclude Sara's record from specific analyses. This decision is acceptable if it does
not significantly impact the overall understanding of student performance.
However, it risks losing valuable information about Sara. 5.3 Building Statistical
Models
In this section, we will explore the basic building blocks of statistical models, including
different types of models, how they are developed, and how to evaluate their
performance. We'll also look at real-world examples to make the concepts easy to
understand.
5.3.1 Introduction to Statistical Modeling
Statistical modeling is a way to use data to make sense of the world and predict what will
happen in the future. Think of it like this: if you want to know how much money you'll
spend on groceries next month, you can look at what you spent in the past. By analyzing
that data, you can create a model to help you estimate your future grocery expenses.
5.3.1.1 Model Development
Building a statistical model involves several steps. Let's break them down:
· Step 1: Define the Problem
First, we need to understand the problem. Example: If we are trying to predict
grocery expenses, we need to know which factors will cause to increase our
grocery expenses (e.g., family size, location, or income).
· Step 2: Collect Data
Next, we gather data related to the problem. In our example, we will collect data
on past spending habits, number of family members, and any other factors that
may affect grocery costs.
· Step 3: Choose an Algorithm
Based on the problem and the data, we choose an algorithm. Algorithms are
methods that help us create a model. Some popular algorithms are linear
regression and logistic regression, which we will further in this section.
· Step 4: Train the Model
The model is then trained using the data. This means the model learns from the
data to make predictions.
· Step 5: Evaluate the Model
Finally, we test the model to see how well it works by using new data. This step is
very important to ensure the model makes good predictions.
5.3.1.2 Linear Regression
Linear regression is a common statistical model used to understand the relationship
between two variables. It is often used to predict one variable based on another. Let's go
through a practical example to explain how it works.
Example: Imagine you run a small fruit stall in your town, and you want to predict how
much money you will make each day based on the number of customers who visit your
stall. The number of customers is the independent variable (the cause), and the money
you earn is the dependent variable (the effect). We will use linear regression to
understand this relationship and help you predict future earnings.
· Step 1: Collecting Data
To build a linear regression model, we need data. Let's assume you've recorded
the number of customers and your daily earnings for the last 5 days:

Here, the number of customers is our independent variable (X), and the daily earnings
are the dependent variable (Y).
· Step 2: Understanding the Linear Regression Formula
The formula for simple linear regression is:
Y =β₀+β₁ x+ϵ
Where:
– Y is the dependent variable (in our case, daily earnings),
– X is the independent variable (the number of customers),
– β₀ is the intercept, which is the starting value of Y when X = 0,
– β₁ is the slope, which shows how much Y changes with each unit increase
in X,
– ε is the error term, which accounts for the difference between the
predicted and actual values.
· Step 3: Building the Linear Regression Model
When building a linear regression model, our goal is to find the best line that
explains how two things are related in this case, the number of customers and
daily earnings. Here's how we get the values for the slope (40) and intercept
(300):
Understanding the Slope (β₁ = 40)
The slope shows how much extra money we make for every new customer. Let's use our
data to figure it out:
If you notice, for every 5 extra customers, earnings go up by 200 rupees. So, for each new
customer:
β₁ = 200/ 5 = 40
This means every new customer adds 40 rupees to our earnings.
Understanding the Intercept (β₀ = 300)
The intercept (β₀) represents the earnings when no customers visit. To find this value, we
look at where the line crosses the vertical axis when the number of customers is zero. In
simpler terms, it tells us what the base earnings are, even if no one shows up.
Using this data, we calculate the slope (β₁ = 40) means for every additional customer,
earnings increase by 40 rupees. Now, to find the intercept, we need to consider how
much we earn when there are no customers.
We can use the equation:
Earnings = β₀ + β₁ × Customers
If we take any data point, say when there are 10 customers, the earnings are 500 rupees.
Substituting these values into the equation:
500 = β₀ + (40 × 10)
500 = β₀ + 400
Solving this gives:
β₀ = 500 − 400 = 100
This means that, based on the data, if no customers show up, you'd still expect to make
100 rupees, maybe from regular customers or other fixed earnings. So, the intercept
value of 100 rupees represents the minimum amount you'd make on a day with zero
customers.
Final Equation:
Earnings = 100 + 40 x Customers
This equation means:
– You'll always earn 100 rupees, even if no one comes.
– Each new customer adds 40 Rs to your total.
· Step 4: Interpreting the Model
Once the model is built, we can use it to predict future earnings. For example, if
you expect 22 customers tomorrow; the predicted earnings would be:
Earnings = 100 + (40 x 22) = 100 + 880 = 980 Rs
This means that with 22 customers, you can expect to earn around 980
rupees.
· Step 5: Testing the Model
After building the model, it's important to test it using new data. Let's say on the
6th day, 28 customers visited your stall, and you earned 1,250 Rs. Using the
model, we can predict the earnings for 28 customers:
Predicted Earnings = 100 + (40 x 28) = 100 + 1, 120 = 1,220 Rs.
However, you actually earned 1,250 Rs. The difference between the predicted
and actual earnings is called the error:
Error = 1,220 - 1,250 = -30 Rs.
While the prediction was close, it is not perfect, showing that real-world data
often has some variation.

5.4.2.2 Logistic Regression

Logistic regression is a powerful tool used when we want to predict an outcome that can
be categorized as “yes” or “no”.
Example: Let's say we want to determine whether a student will pass or fail an exam
based on the number of hours they study. Instead of giving a specific score, logistic
regression helps us find the probability of passing.
Understanding Logistic Regression
Logistic regression is different from linear regression because it does not predict exact
numbers. Instead, it provides a probability value between 0 and 1. This means it tells us
how likely something is to happen.
5.3.2.3 Clustering Techniques
Clustering is a way of grouping similar things together based on their characteristics.
Imagine you have a group of students in your class, and you want to divide them into
groups based on their performance in different subjects like math, science, and English.
Clustering helps us do that by creating groups of students who perform similarly.
Example: Clustering of Students by Performance
Let's say we have data for five students, showing their scores in math and English:

We can use clustering to group these students based on their performance in these two
subjects. K-means Clustering
K-means clustering is one of the simplest and most popular techniques to group data. In
K-means, we need to decide how many groups (clusters) we want. For this example, let's
say we want to divide the students into two clusters: one for students who are strong in
math and one for students who are strong in English. The algorithm will group students
with similar performance in math and English together by calculating the distance
between their scores and finding patterns. It will assign students like Basim and Umer
(who are good at math) to one group and students like Anie and Tallat (who are good at
English) to another group.
5.3.2 Evaluating and Interpreting Models
Once a model is built, it is important to check how well it performs and to
understand the results it provides. This is called model evaluation.
5.3.2.1 Performance Metrics
Performance metrics help us measure how well a model is doing. Some common metrics
include:
• Error Metrics
Error metrics measure how much the model's predictions differ from the actual
values. In our grocery example, if the model predicts a monthly grocery bill of 8,000 rupees
but the actual bill is 10,000 rupees, the difference is the error.
• Accuracy Metrics
Accuracy metrics tell us how many of the model's predictions were correct. For
example, if a model predicts whether a student will pass or fail an exam, accuracy
measures how often the model was right.
5.3.2.2 Interpreting Outputs
Interpreting a model's output means understanding what the results tell us.
Drawing Conclusions from Insights
For example, if our linear regression model shows that hours studied strongly affect
exam scores, we can conclude that students should study more hours to improve their
scores.
5.3.2.3 Ethical Considerations
When building models, it is important to consider the ethical implications, such as
fairness and privacy.
Fairness and Bias
A model should be fair and not biased. For example, if a model is used to decide who
gets a loan, it should not unfairly favor one group of people over another.
Data Privacy
When using personal data to build models, it is important to respect privacy. For
example, if a company is using customer data to build models, they should ensure the
data is secure and not shared without permission.

5.4 Introduction to Data Visualization

Data visualization is the process of representing data in a visual format, such as graphs or charts.
It helps us to quickly grasp patterns, trends, and insights from data.
5.4.1 Types of Visualizations
Data visualization is a powerful way to understand complex information. Different types of
visualizations serve various purposes, making it easier to interpret and analyze data. Below are
some common types of visualizations explained in detail:
5.4.1.1 Bar Charts
Bar charts are ideal for comparing different categories. Each bar represents a category, and the
height (or length) of the bar indicates the value associated with that category.
Example: Imagine you want to compare the sales figures for different products in a store. A bar
chart can visually represent this data.
5.4.1.2 Line Graphs
Line graphs are used to show trends
over time. They plot data points and
connect them with a line, making it
easy to observe changes.
Example: If you track the temperature
over a week, a line graph will show
how the temperature rises and falls
each day.

5.4.1.3 Histograms
Histograms are used to show the distribution of a dataset. They group data into bins or
intervals, allowing you to see how frequently values occur within those ranges.
Example: If you want to analyze how students performed in math exam, a histogram can
show the distribution of scores.
5.4.1.4 Scatterplots
Scatterplots display relationships between two variables. Each point represents an
observation, and the position on the graph indicates values for both variables.
Example: A scatterplot can be used to explore the relationship between the number of
hours studied and exam scores.

Figure 5.4: Scatterplot showing the relationship between hours studied and exam scores
5.5.1.5 Boxplots
Boxplots, or whisker plots, summarize data distribution by displaying the median,
quartiles, and potential outliers. They provide a visual summary of data variability.
Example: A boxplot can be used to compare the exam scores of different classes to see
which class performed better overall.
5.5 Tools for Data Visualization
As we discussed in the above section visualization data helps us make sense of large
amounts of information by turning numbers into easy-to-understand charts and
graphs. In this section, we will discuss tools that can be used to create these
visualizations and guide you through how to create and interpret them step by step.
There are many tools available for creating data visualizations, but some of the easiest to
use are tools you are already familiar with, like Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets. These
tools are widely accessible and provide straightforward methods to create charts,
graphs, and other visual representations of data.
5.5.1 Using Excel and Google Sheets for Visualization
Excel and Google Sheets: These tools allow you to easily enter your data and then
generate a variety of visualizations such as bar charts, line graphs, and pie charts.
Example: Let's say you run a small business in your local area, and you want to track how
many products you sell each month. You can enter the data for each month in Excel or
Google Sheets, and with just a few clicks, you can create a bar chart to see which month
had the most sales.
5.2.2 Creating and Interpreting Visualizations
Step-by-Step Guide: Here's a simple guide to creating a visualization in Excel or Google
Sheets.
1. Enter Your Data: Start by entering your data into the spreadsheet. Example: In
one column, you could have the months (January, February, etc.), and in another
column, the sales figures for each month.
2. Select the Data: Highlight the data you want to visualize by clicking and
dragging your mouse over the cells.
3. Choose a Chart Type: Click on the "Insert" tab and select the type of chart you
want to create (bar chart, line graph, etc.).
4. Customize the Chart: You can add labels to your chart to make it clearer, such
as labeling the x-axis with the months and the y-axis with the sales figures. This
makes the chart easier to interpret.
5. Understanding Statistical Representations:
When you create a visualization, it's important to understand what the chart is
telling you.
Summary
This unit focuses on model building and data visualization, equipping learners with
the skills to analyze, interpret, and present data effectively. Key topics include:
1. Model Building:
o Understand the role and importance of statistical models in solving realworld
problems.
o Learn to build basic statistical models (e.g., linear regression) and evaluate
their performance using appropriate metrics.
2. Experimental Design:
o Gain an understanding of experimental design in data science, including
hypothesis testing, control groups, and randomization.
3. Data Visualization:
o Explore the types and uses of data visualizations (e.g., bar charts, scatter
plots, heatmaps).
o Learn methods for creating effective visualizations to communicate insights
clearly.
4. Descriptive Statistics:
o Understand the benefits of visualizing data through descriptive statistics
(e.g., mean, median, standard deviation) to summarize and interpret data
trends.
5. Tools for Visualization:
o Develop hands-on skills in creating visualizations using tools like MS Excel,
Google Sheets, Python (Matplotlib), and Tableau.
Multiple Choice Questions
1. An example of a basic statistical model:
a) Linear Regression b) Neural Networks
c) Decision Trees d) Support Vector Machines
2. The activity involved in experimental design in data science:
a) Creating visualizations b) Collecting and analyzing data systematically
c) Writing code for machine learning d) Building databases
3. A commonly used tool for creating data visualizations:
a) MS Excel b) Python (Matplotlib)
c) Tableau d) All of the above
4. The meaning of the slope in a linear regression model:
a) The intercept of the model
b) The change in the dependent variable for a unit change in the independent
variable
c) The error term
d) The mean of the data
5. An example of a real-world application of statistical models:
a) Predicting house prices b) Creating social media posts
c) Designing websites d) Writing essays
6. Option not considered a benefit of data visualization:
a) Identifying trends and patterns b) Communicating insights effectively
c) Making data more complex d) Summarizing large datasets
8. A primary goal of K-Means Clustering:
a) To classify data into predefined categories
b) To group data into clusters based on similarity
c) To predict continuous outcomes
d) To reduce the dimensionality of data
9. The meaning of "K" in K-Means Clustering:
a) Number of features in the dataset
b) Number of clusters to be formed
c) Number of iterations required for convergence
d) Number of data points in the dataset
Short Questions
1. What is the importance of building statistical models in real-world
applications?
2. Name one basic statistical model used for predicting outcomes and explain
its purpose.
3. List two types of data visualizations and describe when you would use each.
4. How does visualizing data help in understanding descriptive statistics?
Long Questions
1. Explain the role and importance of statistical models in solving real-world
problems.
2. Describe the steps involved in building a basic statistical model (e.g., linear
regression). Include details on data collection, model training, and evaluation.
3. Discuss the types of data visualizations and their uses.
4. Explain data collection methods.
5. Discuss the concept of measure of tendency with example.