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American Conspiracy Theories
American Conspiracy Theories

JOSEPH E. USCINSKI

AND

J O S E P H M . PA R E N T

1
1
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide.

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© Oxford University Press 2014

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press,
or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the
appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction
outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department,
Oxford University Press, at the address above.

You must not circulate this work in any other form

and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.

CIP data is on file at the LOC

9780199351800 (hbk.)
9780199351817 (pbk.)

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Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

 CONTENTS

List of Figures and Tables vi

Acknowledgments ix

1. A Theory of Conspiracy 1

2. But Is It True? 23

3. Where Our Facts Come From 54

4. Who Are the Conspiracy Theorists? 73

5. The Ages of Conspiracy 105

6. Conspiracy Theories Are for Losers 130

7. Conspiring for the Common Good 154

Notes 167
References 197
Index 215
 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

Figures
1.1 The Conspiracy Dimension 19
4.1 Is News Deliberately Slanted? 77
4.2 Will the Elections Be Cancelled? 77
4.3 Do Secret Groups Control Events? 78
4.4 Measures of Conspiratorial Predispositions 80
4.5 Trust in Government and Conspiratorial Predispositions 81
4.6 Secret Groups Control Events and Conspiratorial
Predispositions 81
4.7 Gender and Conspiratorial Predispositions 83
4.8 Race and Conspiratorial Predispositions 84
4.9 Generation X and Conspiratorial Predispositions 85
4.10 Education and Conspiratorial Predispositions 86
4.11 Political Ideology and Conspiratorial Predispositions 89
4.12 Partisanship and Conspiratorial Predispositions 89
4.13 Which Groups Are Conspiring? 90
4.14 Electoral Fraud and Conspiratorial Predispositions 91
4.15 “Other” Parties and Conspiratorial Predispositions 94
4.16 Non-Registration and Conspiratorial Predispositions 95
4.17 Voter Participation in 2012 and Conspiratorial
Predispositions 95
4.18 Political Behavior and Conspiratorial Predispositions 96
4.19 Presidential Choice and Conspiratorial Predispositions 97
L ist of F igures and Tables vii

4.20 Acceptance of Violence Against the Government

and Conspiratorial Predispositions 98
4.21 Income and Conspiratorial Predispositions 101
4.22 Stock Ownership and Conspiratorial Predispositions 102
4.23 Area of Employment and Conspiratorial Predispositions 103
5.1 Time-Series of Conspiracy Letters 110
6.1 Proportion of Villains in Sample 138
6.2 Proportion of Villains by Party of President 139
6.3 Proportion of Right/Capitalist and Left/Communist Villains
by Party of President 139
6.4 Divided and Unified Government During Republican
Administration 141
6.5 Divided and Unified Government During Democratic
Administration 141
6.6 Proportion of Foreign Villains During Elevated Threat and
Non-Elevated Threat 143
6.7 Proportion of Foreign Villains Compared to Left, Right,
Capitalist, and Communist Villains 144

Tables
3.1 Sample of Conspiratorial Plots 59
3.2 Sample of Conspirators 63
3.3 Sample of Conspiratorial Plots by Category 67
5.1 Time-Series Regression Results 114
 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

You might think that we are ace conspirators. After four or so years of
studying stratagems, subterfuge, and schemes—real and imagined—one
could be expected to acquire a practical facility with such arts. Alas, the
truth must out: we are deplorably deficient in this regard. Events have re-
peatedly mocked our master plans, we labor quite openly for the common
good, and the present work is not remotely the product of a small group.
While this may handicap our credibility as conspirators, we flatter our-
selves to think it improves our objectivity as scholars. In any case, it cer-
tainly incurs a lot of debts.
There are so many extraordinary people to thank, and we are but two
regular Joes. At the top of that list are our esteemed chairs, Fred Frohock
and Jonathan West, who bent over backward to secure desperately needed
research funding. At our home institution, many colleagues provided ter-
rific advice and criticism, in particular Matthew Atkinson, Casey Klofstad,
and Greg Koger. At other institutions, our gratitude to Adam Berinsky,
Matthew Dentith, Brendan Nyhan, and Paul Herrnson for their com-
ments and support. More than 60 research assistants endured long and
grinding hours collecting data; we are forever grateful to them. Deserving
special commendation are Alexander Ades, Alexander Alduncin, Marlon
Baquedano, Ryden Butler, Jing Chen, Ali Jessani, Josephine Makrush,
Bethany Torres, and Reid Wilcox. Dave McBride at Oxford University
Press championed the project early on and was an unimprovable editor
x A cknowledgments

and stand-up guy throughout. We also owe debts to the Oxford staff and
to our anonymous reviewers.
Uscinski needs to thank Leilany, Benny, Ruby, Mom, Dad, Kevin, Tracy,
Amy, and Gram for their love and support. The last few years have been in-
credibly difficult, but I hope the results make up for that. Parent would like
to dedicate this book to his gracious godparents: Connie and John Morse.
As always, work wouldn’t mean much without family and friends on the
other side of the bubble. This volume was in part completed so quickly be-
cause of Abigail Becker’s kindness—one could not ask for a more dignified
person to go through a divorce with. For patience and friendship when
the project shanghaied mind, body, or composure, thanks also to Engels
­Castrillo, Kennedy Gordy, Joseph Karas, Paul MacDonald, Lina Mesa,
Maria Pilar Quintana, Sebastian Rosato, and Brittany Sharpton.
Finally, candor compels the authors to acknowledge their deep debts
to each other. Now that we have been faithful partners for years and can
finish each other’s sentences (on paper anyway), we must confess this
work would not have been half as good without the other, or half as good
without the names above. That does not appear to add up. Perhaps this is a
conspiracy after all. The final product did turn out suspiciously well. Who,
then, is to blame? With all the characters above, it cannot be the work of
a lone gunman.
Miami, Florida
November 22, 2013
American Conspiracy Theories
 1

A Theory of Conspiracy

And things inside will always remain steady, if things outside are
steady, unless indeed they are disturbed by a conspiracy . . .
—Niccolò Machiavelli1

In the beginning was a theory, and the theory was conspiratorial. Before
the United States united, American elites were incensed that King George
III was encroaching on colonists’ rights. This was no humdrum case of
conflicting political priorities; the king was secretly scheming to strip col-
onists of their liberty and rule over them with absolute authority. A large
literature sprang up to chronicle the king’s covert plot and alert Americans
to the impending catastrophe.2
This ferment culminated in the Declaration of Independence, the origi-
nal American conspiracy theory. To explain the causes of separation, the
authors arrive at the thrust of their reasoning by the second paragraph:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invari-

ably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute
2 AMERICAN CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Govern-

ment, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such
has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now
the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems
of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is
a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct
object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To
prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

What then follows is a piling on of 27 charges against the conduct and

intentions of King George. And that was the edited version; Thomas Jef-
ferson’s earlier drafts included a far more tedious train of evidence.3
It may not be an accident that there is a laundry list in the middle of
an otherwise stirring rhetorical document. The Founders faced a problem
that the evidence for the fiendish plot was, well, wanting. With hindsight,
we know that the British government had no designs to enslave the Amer-
ican people. The United Kingdom certainly committed imperial outrages,
but pre-1776 North American colonists experienced very few of them.
Compared to contemporaries like Spain’s ruthless South American extrac-
tions or France’s Haitian human furnace, the British Empire looks mild
mannered. Far from being highly oppressive, the British held together
a massive empire with miniscule manpower, and it would be well over
a century until they lost another colony to independence. Not long after
the American Revolution, the abolition movement gained momentum in
Britain, and for decades in the nineteenth century the country was paying
two percent of its GDP to extinguish the Atlantic slave trade, one of the
most important acts of moral statecraft in history.4
While that may be hindsight, even at the time the young revolution-
aries struggled to justify their actions. Contemporary observers wished
the charges against the king “had been more particularly mentioned” so
they could be better judged; others claimed the charges were stated in an
“obscure manner” lacking both “truth and sense.”5 One of the wealthiest
and most vocal rebels, John Dickinson, conceded the lack of oppression
when he wrote that the critical question was “not, what evil has actually
A Theory of Conspiracy 3

attended particular measures—but, what evil, in the nature of things, is

likely to attend them.” Edmund Burke, quite sympathetic to the colonists’
grievances, also observed that where other countries complained under
an “actual grievance,” Americans anticipated their grievances and com-
plained before they suffered.6 This has remained standard practice for
Americans, who historically have been quick to anticipate tyranny, despo-
tism, and a full spectrum of apocalyptic scenarios, from red coats to black
helicopters.
Today the American Founders are revered as demi-gods for their un-
common wisdom and heightened powers of rationality. Deservedly so;
many countries do not survive long, many that do are dysfunctional, few
states become great powers, fewer still hegemons, and only the United
States has soared to sole superpower status so quickly. There is no need to
litigate the American Revolution—it has more than legitimated itself and
its results have been immense and largely happy. But it is curious and con-
sequential that the justification for independence was a shaky conspiracy
theory.
As with many things, where the Founders have led Americans have
followed in droves. A steady stream of conspiracy theories has flowed in
the years since the founding, imputing anti-American conspiracies to the
British, French, Spanish, Bavarian Illuminati, Freemasons, Slave Power,
Abolitionists, Catholics, Jews, Mormons, Muslims, communists, capital-
ists, and many, many more. No powerful group has escaped the attention
of conspiracy theorists. Few not-so-powerful groups have either. There
is no material too frail to be woven into conspiratorial yarn. Whether
over small-town land-use policies, road planning, municipal recycling,
or ­bicycle-sharing programs, conspiracy theories consistently crop up to
warn of secret machinations and impending doom.7
Naturally, conspiracy theories flourish across space just as much as they
do across time. In the ancient Roman forum or the modern Arab street,
conspiracy theories are universal in their allure. In Arkansas or Sweden,
birds cannot fall from the sky in any number without their deaths being
attributed to UFO weaponry, Soviet-era super-weapons, or scheming oil
companies.8 Genetically engineered sharks do not exist only on the Sci-Fi
4 AMERICAN CONSPIRACY THEORIES

Channel’s Saturday night lineup; they also attack tourists off the Egyp-
tian coast at the behest of Israeli intelligence.9 And while 9/11 theories
have enjoyed prominence in the United States, they have been even more
prominent in Europe and the Middle East.10 Tractability forces us to study
conspiracy theories in a particular time and place, but one should keep
in mind the historical durability and global reach of conspiracy theories.
There are many reasons to study conspiracy theories, but the most com-
pelling is their close relationship to politics and policy. While its net effect
has yet to be fully accounted for, conspiracy theorizing is not confined
to parlor games about who really shot JFK or who probed whom near
Roswell, New Mexico. Conspiracy theories have been deeply entwined in
revolutions, social movements, and public policy, and they have fueled
political stalemate, alienation, witch-hunts, and worse.11
High-profile examples are legion. The most important legislative
achievement of the Obama administration’s first term, healthcare reform,
had to address a series of conspiracy theories. One was that the bill cre-
ated secret “death panels,” which would determine whether individuals
would receive medical treatment or be allowed to die.12 The plot may have
been imaginary, but the opposition it aroused dealt a very real blow in the
2010 midterm election. As a direct result of supporting healthcare reform,
House Democrats are estimated to have lost 25 seats and control of the
House.13 The bill and its subsequent implementation had to be revised to
assuage the outcry.14
Another conspiracy theory claimed the president was conspiring to
destroy religious liberty with contraception mandates for religious insti-
tutions. The president was accused of hiding this conspiracy by orchestrat-
ing, with the supine support of liberal media, a second conspiracy: a series
of diversionary tactics involving a law student, Sandra Fluke. Fox News
commentator Bill O’Reilly argued that “the Sandra Fluke contraception
controversy was manufactured to divert attention away from the Obama
administration’s disastrous decision to force Catholic non-profit organiza-
tions to provide insurance coverage for birth control and the morning-
after pill. That might very well be unconstitutional.” He concluded, “[i]t
seems there is a powerful presence behind Sandra Fluke.”15
A Theory of Conspiracy 5

Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, conspiracy theories hindered ef-

forts to mobilize political support for measures aimed at preventing future
attacks.16 It is difficult to accept enhanced security measures for travel-
ing, banking, and employment if the reason for those measures, 9/11,
was a hoax perpetrated to justify intrusive government policies. Similarly,
it is hard to fight rogue states and terrorist groups if one believes these
actors are merely scapegoats for an unmoored, insatiably invasive U.S.
government.
Dismissing conspiracy theories as absurd does not change the fact that
they can consume a fair amount of that most valuable political commod-
ity: the president’s time. To address the widespread belief that he was born
abroad, Barack Obama had to put aside the faltering economy, two wars,
and the national debt to hold a press conference for the sole purpose of
releasing his long-form birth certificate. During the George W. Bush ad-
ministration, the 9/11 Commission was designed partly as a response to
conspiracy theories accusing Bush and Dick Cheney of staging the at-
tacks on the Twin Towers and Pentagon. Bill Clinton consumed much
of his presidency fending off allegations that he was part of a conspiracy
to cover up illegal activities, including assassinating a colleague, Vince
Foster. Ironically, the Clinton administration counterclaimed that it was
the victim of a “vast right-wing conspiracy.”
Conspiracy theorists are often caricatured as a small demographic
composed primarily of middle-aged white male Internet enthusiasts who
live in their mothers’ basements. But polls tell a different story: conspiracy
theories permeate all parts of American society and cut across gender,
age, race, income, political affiliation, educational level, and occupational
status.17 About a third of Americans believe the “Birther” conspiracy
theory: that Barack Obama is a foreigner who unconstitutionally usurped
the presidency. A similar amount believes the “Truther” conspiracy
theory: that the Bush administration either carried out or knowingly al-
lowed the 9/11 attacks.18 Decades after the fact, between 60 and 80 per-
cent of Americans agree that the assassination of President Kennedy was
orchestrated by a conspiracy and covered up by the government.19 When
asked about four specific conspiracy theories, a 2012 national poll found
6 AMERICAN CONSPIRACY THEORIES

that 63 percent of respondents believed at least one.20 Based on this, it is

safe to say that almost everyone believes in at least one conspiracy theory
and many of us believe more than one.21
The polls above are not reflecting transient or trivial responses; the be-
liefs appear to be strongly held and sincere.22 Social scientists have con-
ducted numerous experiments in which they try to get people to change
their conspiratorial views in response to authoritative information, but
this work is mostly in vain.23 In fact, some individuals double-down on
their belief in what is termed the “back-fire effect.”24 Like summer movie
super-villains, some conspiracy theories just won’t die.
Outside the laboratory, conspiratorial beliefs are just as tenacious. In-
formational campaigns intended to combat the conspiracy theory that
vaccines cause autism have not been very successful.25 The release of Pres-
ident Obama’s long-form Hawaiian birth certificate stymied belief in the
Birther conspiracy theory briefly, but those beliefs returned stronger than
before.26 And, though the 9/11 Commission attempted to dispel Truther
conspiracy theories, those beliefs persist a decade later.27 This has led
some scholars and public officials to propose policies aimed at hindering
the spread of conspiracy theories.28 In a democratic society, it is desirable
to have a citizenry that accepts overwhelming evidence so that collective
preferences are based on the best available information.29
But to be clear, conspiratorial beliefs need not pose a problem for soci-
ety or government. Nor do they necessarily lead their adherents to become
obstructive or destructive. In some cases they do, but if they frequently
did, then nearly everyone would be causing trouble all the time and the
world would roil in conspiracy-soaked chaos. Typically, conspiracy theo-
ries are harmless, entertaining, or both. Many come and go in the night.
But in extreme cases conspiracy theories can be reckless, lethal, and vio-
lent. Belief in a conspiracy involving genetically modified (GM) food pro-
ducers led several African nations to ban the importation and harvesting
of GM crops. This has had dire consequences for the most malnourished
populations on Earth.30 In the same region, a conspiracy theory accusing
pharmaceutical companies, doctors, and foreigners of attempting to extort
profits with useless treatments drove South African leaders to block the
A Theory of Conspiracy 7

use of HIV drugs. As a consequence, over a third of a million people are

estimated to have died unnecessarily.31 There are concerns in the United
States, particularly with the African American community, that conspir-
atorial beliefs decrease the willingness of HIV-infected patients to seek
treatment.32 Conspiracy theories about vaccines are partially to blame for
decreased rates of vaccination and an increased incidence of disease.33
Conspiracy-related race riots and Red Scares inflicted incalculable
damage on the country. The fatal 1992 incident at Ruby Ridge, Idaho issued
from antagonisms between law enforcement and conspiracy theorists.34
Believing that the government was conspiring to violate rights, Timothy
McVeigh bombed a federal building in Oklahoma City, killing 168 and
wounding hundreds more.35 Similarly, Eric Rudolph bombed Centennial
Olympic Park in 1996—plus two abortion clinics and a gay bar shortly
thereafter—to fight against the U.S. government’s supposed advancement
of abortion rights and world socialism. Sympathizers sheltered him for
years and several country songs celebrate him.36 The Fort Hood shooter,
Nidal Malik Hasan, killed 13 people out of his belief that the United States
was conspiring against Muslims.37 And, the Boston Marathon bombers,
Tamerlan and Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, frequently visited conspiracy theory
websites and were convinced of U.S. complicity in the World Trade Center
attacks.38 As Dzhokhar remarked on his Twitter feed only months before
their bombs killed three and injured 264 others: “I d[on’t] k[now] why it’s
hard for many of you to accept that 9/11 was an inside job. I mean I guess
fuck the facts y’all are some real #patriots #gethip.”39 Farther afield, Anders
Behring Breivik’s conspiratorial views killed scores of young Norwegians,
and Interwar Germany’s “stab in the back” myth killed millions.
There is a great concern that conspiracy rhetoric reverberating in
America’s polarized political environment could lead to further outbreaks
of violence. Here is New York Magazine Editor-at-Large Frank Rich com-
menting on conspiracy theories involving a large purchase of ammunition
by the government:

This is exactly the kind of conspiracy mongering that led to Timo-

thy McVeigh in Oklahoma, for Heaven’s sakes. They had ammunition.
8 AMERICAN CONSPIRACY THEORIES

They’re going to have concentration camps, black helicopters to

come after you, to come after the Second Amendment. That’s sort
of playing with fire. I mean, some of these crazy right wing militia
types are very much still out there, and these guys don’t even see the
irony—two Republican Senators from Oklahoma, where that atroc-
ity happened—fanning these flames.40

Maybe conspiratorial beliefs drive violence. Or maybe conspiracy theories

are only symbols exploited by actors who would commit violence anyway.
Only with careful study can we begin to untangle the connections.
In short, there are persuasive reasons to study conspiracy theories. Taken
together, conspiracy theories are ubiquitous, absorbing, and substantial;
they reveal the darkest recesses of a nation’s psyche. But despite the at-
tention they receive, pressing questions remain unanswered. Who is most
prone to believing in conspiracy theories? What explains the overall level
of conspiratorial belief in the United States? Has America become more
conspiratorial over time? What groups are most likely to be accused of
conspiring and when? Who is most likely to do the accusing? Why do some
conspiracy theories resonate better than others? What role do conspiracy
theories play in social movements, political parties, and democracy? Do
those holding many conspiratorial beliefs behave differently—politically,
economically, or socially—than those holding few? Are the minds predis-
posed to conspiracy theories also predisposed to violence?
The gaps in our understanding are more than storms in an ivory tower
teacup, churning up publications for professors, chores for graduate stu-
dents, and opportunities for cash-strapped college kids to serve as glori-
fied guinea pigs. These lacunae are a chance to set on firmer footing the
public discourse on conspiracy theories. Social science has not been able
to confirm or deny a panoply of popular explanations for conspiracy theo-
rizing, leaving the field open for punditry to parade as wisdom. Although
reporters are amply attentive to conspiracy theories, to date they have
done little to advance our knowledge about the causes behind the stories.
Because journalism is driven by the need to attract audiences with sal-
able storylines, journalists are pushed to extrapolate from unrepresentative
A Theory of Conspiracy 9

cases or masquerade conjecture as fact.41 For example, Time magazine

listed the reptilian elite theory as one of the ten most popular conspiracy
theories of all time.42 While it is entertaining to contemplate a bloodline
of shape-shifting reptilians ruling the planet, a cursory glance at the polls
shows that nearly no one believes in it.43 Reporters deserve more sym-
pathy than antipathy for this—few have fared better even when not on a
­deadline—but methods are now available to better scrutinize what we think
we know about conspiracy theories. Only with improved tools and tests
do good explanations stand a chance of crowding out bad explanations.44
The rest of this chapter is laid out as follows. In the next section, we
assess the strengths and weaknesses of previous studies on conspiracy the-
ories. We then outline the logic of our explanation. In the final section, we
telegraph the organization of the book in full, so readers can skip around
according to their needs and interests (though we humbly suggest reading
the whole book cover to cover or the mind control won’t work).

THE PROS AND CONS OF PRIOR WORK

To avert any suspense, our overall assessment of the literature is that it is a

helpful foundation, but also disjointed, often ad hoc, and overly absorbed
by conspicuous conspiracy theories. The bad news is that this state of af-
fairs stunts attempts at generalizable knowledge. The good news is that
existing elements can be united into a general explanation. One of the
advantages of political science is the discipline’s ecumenical kleptomania,
and below we gratefully catalog our copious debts to burgled fields. We
hope to add value not only by rearranging familiar materials into a more
useful contraption, but also by bringing politics and power more to the
fore. We start with the bad news.
First, the study of conspiracy theories is disjointed. This is in some ways
practical and a boon to the subject; scholars from psychology, sociology,
political science, history, and philosophy have all provided valuable in-
sights. Less luckily, the wide breadth of scholarship has created a situation
in which many scholars talk past each other and have not yet adequately
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