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Terrorism, Security, and Computation

V.S. Subrahmanian
Aaron Mannes
Animesh Roul
R.K. Raghavan

Indian Mujahideen
Computational Analysis and Public Policy
Foreword by
The Hon. Louis J. Freeh
Terrorism, Security, and Computation

Series Editor
V. S. Subrahmanian, College Park, USA

For further volumes:

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V. S. Subrahmanian Aaron Mannes
•

Animesh Roul R. K. Raghavan

•

Indian Mujahideen
Computational Analysis and Public Policy

Foreword by The Hon. Louis J. Freeh

123
V. S. Subrahmanian Animesh Roul
Department of Computer Science Society for the Study of Peace and Conflict
University of Maryland Dwarka, Delhi
College Park, MD India
USA
R. K. Raghavan
Aaron Mannes Central Bureau of Investigation
Institute for Advanced Computer Studies Alwarpet, Chennai
University of Maryland Tamil Nadu
College Park, MD India
USA

ISSN 2197-8778 ISSN 2197-8786 (electronic)

ISBN 978-3-319-02817-0 ISBN 978-3-319-02818-7 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-02818-7
Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London

Library of Congress Control Number: 2013951325

 Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2013

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Foreword

‘‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’’
George Santayana, The Life of Reason.

Santayana’s advice though spoken in the political sphere is grounded in the age-old
military doctrine of knowing your enemy in order to defeat him. Such sage thinking
has been repeated from Sun Tzu circa 500 BC to present professors of military
tactics today.
Knowing your enemy is an inherent core of this timely and important book on
the Indian Mujahideen, a terrorist group, by a foursome of respected scholars
(R. K. Raghavan, Animesh Roul, Aaron Mannes, and V. S. Subrahmanian). The
writers have successfully revealed the inside workings of this dangerous terrorist
group, which is presently a major threat to the Country of India. By examining the
origins, known supporters, and current tactics of the IM, this well-organized book
succeeds in letting India gain a deep knowledge of the enemy targeting the
national security of India and its economic prosperity.
We have learned in the fight against terrorism that the organizations who
sponsor and finance these crimes against humanity have ‘different faces.’
For example, when the self-styled ‘Saudi Hezbollah’ used a massive truck
bomb to destroy Khobar Towers in June 1996, where USAF personnel enforcing
the ‘no fly’ zone over southern Iraq were billeted, murdering 18 Airmen and
injuring hundreds, the real terrorists behind the deadly attack was the Iranian
IRGC. As with the IM, the real ‘principals’ behind these highly organized and
intricately planned attacks have to be identified and brought to justice, whatever
the political and foreign policy considerations.
The book is extremely well researched with copious details from the beginnings
of the IM to its present day operations and policies. It is most thoughtful, espe-
cially in the chapter dealing with the IM’s modus operandi. The portions of the
book, most impressive and insightful, are those which focus on approaches to
analyze the IM’s past attacks as possibly predictive of future IM terrorist opera-
tions. The true strength of the book, however, is its recommendation for the

v
vi Foreword

establishment of a robust National Counter-Terrorism Center in India. India needs

to step forward to an effective long-term solution not just to fight the clear and
present danger of the IM, but to face the realities of the global terrorism challenge
that all nations face.
In this important regard, I highly recommend this significant and well-written
book.

Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation (1993–2001), US Louis J. Freeh

Advance Praise

‘‘This book presents a highly innovative computational approach to analyzing the

strategic behavior of terrorist groups and formulating counter-terrorism policies.
It would be very useful for international security analysts and policymakers.’’ Uzi
Arad, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel and Head, Israel
National Security Council (2009–2011).
‘‘An important book on a complex security problem. Issues have been analysed in
depth based on quality research. Insightful and well-balanced in describing the
way forward’’. Naresh Chandra, Indian Ambassador to the USA (1996–2001) and
Cabinet Secretary (1990–1992).
‘‘An objective and clinical account of the origins, aims, extra-territorial links and
modus-operandi, of a growingly dangerous terrorist organization that challenges
the federal, democratic, secular and pluralistic ethos of India’s polity. The Authors
have meticulously researched and analysed the multi-faceted challenges that the
‘‘Indian Mujahideen’’ poses and realistically dwelt on the ways in which these
challenges could be faced and overcome.’’ G. Parthasarathy, High Commissioner
of India to Australia (1995–1998) and Pakistan (1998–2000).
‘‘The book is a commendable effort to educate us about the IM. Its well researched
and contains information that should prove useful for professionals dealing with
terrorism such as details of the organization, computational predictions and the
concept of Temporal Probabilistic Behavior Rules. The authors need to be
complimented for attempting a mathematical definition of a policy against the IM,
for a sound analysis of the IM and for offering some very sound operational
suggestions. It is particularly creditable that the book, even though it deals with
such a serious subject, is eminently readable by lay persons and therefore should
educate them on a subject that is extremely relevant. Is a valuable addition to
material that helps in our fight against terrorism. The authors deserve to be
applauded for this authoritative book’’. Nikhil Kumar, Governor of Kerala (March
2013–to date), ex-Governor of Nagaland (Oct 2009–March 2013), ex-Director
General of India’s National Security Guards (June 1999–July 2001), ex-Commis-
sioner Delhi Police (Jan 1995–April 1997).

vii
Preface

Three recent advances have revolutionized the study of the behaviors of both
individuals and groups. First, the wide and near-instantaneous dissemination of
information on the Internet has led to a plethora of data about terrorist groups as
well as the actions of other actors that might influence these groups. Second, text
analysis techniques of the kind used by web search engines are significantly
enhancing our ability to search this plethora of data. Third, huge advances in data
mining allow us to track hundreds of variables about terrorist groups and use them
to create models that generate factors predicting terrorist attacks.
The Laboratory for Computational Cultural Dynamics (LCCD) at the
University of Maryland was created in 2004 to study the behavior of terrorist
groups using computational methods, to develop systematic, data-driven methods
that predict the future behaviors of these groups, and to identify policies that
reduce the level of terrorist acts carried out by these groups. LCCD consists of an
interdisciplinary research team including, over the years, computer scientists,
political scientists, psychologists, public policy experts, criminologists, and
sociologists. We emphasize the interdisciplinary nature of behavioral studies—and
to reinforce this approach, this book has four Authors. One is a Computer Scientist
(Subrahmanian) with a 10-year background in counter-terrorism research, another
(Mannes) is a Public Policy Expert with over 10 years of experience in counter-
terrorism, the third (Roul) is a Policy Analyst with nearly 15 years of experience in
terrorism and counter-insurgency research, while the last (Raghavan) is a Political
Scientist and Criminologist with nearly 50 years of experience as a law enforce-
ment expert.
LCCD started with small-scale studies of Hamas and Hezbollah and then
undertook the first comprehensive study of individual terrorist groups using
computational means, co-authored by the first two Authors of this book in 2012
along with others. The result was a book, Computational Analysis of Terrorist
Groups: Lashkar-e-Taiba, by Subrahmanian, Mannes, Sliva, Shakarian, and
Dickerson, published by Springer in 2012 (Subrahmanian et al. 2012). After that
book went to press, LCCD put out several forecasts regarding LeT’s behavior and
those of proxy groups associated with it; most of the forecasts have come true to
date. These predictions are summarized in the table below (See Table 1).

ix
 x

Table 1 LCCD predictions and outcomes, LeT

Date predicted Predicted time frame Prediction Outcome
1 May 2011, counter-terrorism July–December 2011 Armed clashes between LeT/LeT Several such incidents occurred
meeting in the Washington DC proxies and Indian security
area forces
2 Civilians will be abducted by LeT/ Several such incidents occurred
LeT proxies
3 LeT/LeT proxies will let some Several civilians abducted by LeT
abducted civilians go ‘‘escaped’’; Unclear if LeT let
them go intentionally
4 Armed clashes between LeT/LeT LeT targeted leaders of the JKLFa
proxies and other armed groups
5 Fedayeen attacks on production None reported though several
sites will be carried out by LeT attacks were thwarted
and proxies
6 December 2012, Dutch police January–March 2013 Predicted no major LeT/LeT proxy No such attacks occurred
conference; January 2013, Aspen attacks on either professional
Institute Delhi talk security forces or on public,
symbolic, transportation sites
7 Predicted that LeT/LeT proxies Several such attacks occurred
will carry out small attacks on
civilians
8 May 2013, U.S. Consulate talk in June–September Predicted that there will be LeT The Bodh Gaya attacks in June
Mumbai 2013 attacks on either professional 2013 are believed to have been
security forces or public, carried out either by LeT or IMb
symbolic, or transportation
targets
9 Predicted that there will be small Still to be determined
LeT attacks on civilians
a
Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front
b
Indian Mujahideen
Preface
Preface xi

According to Table 1, of the eight predictions that can be evaluated at this time,
only one turned out wrong (Prediction 5); all the others were largely correct. The
correctness of Prediction 9 will only be clear by the end of September 2013.
Because of the close relationship between Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the
Indian Mujahideen (IM), LCCD collected data on IM during that study. IM, which
largely carries out terrorist attacks within the borders of India, has the potential to
destabilize India. It deserves to be studied in its own right. This book presents the
first comprehensive analysis of IM based on a robust computational and mathe-
matical framework. Our work builds on excellent prior studies, notably that of
Shishir Gupta (2011).
We owe a debt of gratitude to many people who shaped our thinking about IM.
While working for LCCD, Jana Shakarian collected a first set of data about IM,
which we then adapted, extended, and improved. We have benefited from con-
versations about IM with many people in India. On terrorism in South Asia, we
have benefited from discussions with Marvin Weinbaum and Stephen Tankel. On
terrorism in general, we have learned much from discussions with Daveed
Gartenstein-Ross, Roy Lindelauf, and Jonathan Wilkenfeld. Conversations between
one of the Authors (Raghavan) and several current and past senior law enforcement
and intelligence officers in India were helpful in checking and crosschecking some
facts. This exercise, we believe, has greatly enhanced the credibility of this study.
On the technology side, the Stochastic Temporal Analysis of Terrorist Events
(STATE) system used in this book was primarily developed by two University of
Maryland undergraduates, Moshe Katz and Yehuda Katz, who built it on top of
prior work on a temporal probabilistic (TP) rule-mining engine. This algorithm
was originally developed by Jason Ernst (now at UCLA) and the first Author, and
later improved significantly by LCCD member John Dickerson (now at Carnegie
Mellon). The TP-rules themselves were originally developed by Alex Dekhtyar
and V. S. Subrahmanian. The use of mixed integer programming methods to
generate policies was based on work by the first Author with his then-PhD student
Raymond Ng (now at the University of British Columbia), Colin Bell (now at
Microsoft), and Anil Nerode (at Cornell).
The work of LCCD on developing the technology used in this analysis has been
generously funded by many organizations, primarily the Army Research Office
(ARO) under grants W911NF1110344, W911NF0910206, and W911NF11C0215
and NSF grant SES0826886. In particular, Dr. Purush Iyer at ARO has been a
tireless friend, supporter, and constructive critic of our work.
On the administrative side, Barbara Lewis helped with formatting and checking
the manuscript and Noseong Park helped with some figures. Althea Nagai and
Michael Garber proofed and critiqued the manuscript in its near-final stage. John
Dickerson ran some of the computational tools required to extract the rules.

College Park, MD, August 25, 2013 V. S. Subrahmanian

Aaron Mannes
New Delhi, India Animesh Roul
Chennai, India R. K. Raghavan
xii Preface

Reference

Subrahmanian VS, Mannes A, Shakarian J, Sliva A, Dickerson J (2012) Computational analysis

of terrorist groups: Lashkar-e-Taiba. Springer, New York
Contents

1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.1 Organization of the Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.2 How to Read this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 IM’s Lethality: A Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.4 IM’s Principal Areas of Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.5 Summary of IM Behavioral Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.6 Policies Against the Indian Mujahideen. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.6.1 Increased Vigilance When India–Pakistan
Diplomatic Relations Warm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 13
1.6.2 Monitor Conferences Organized by the Indian
Mujahideen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 14
1.6.3 Monitor IM Rhetoric About Their Terror Campaign
and Claims of Responsibility by IM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.6.4 Monitor Internal Conflict Inside India. . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.6.5 Increased Vigilance After Arrests of IM Personnel. . . . 16
1.7 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2 Indian Mujahideen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
2.1 Emergence and History of Indian Mujahideen . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.1.1 Jamaat-e-Islami, the Parent Organization. . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.1.2 JeI After the Partition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.2 The Student Islamic Movememt of India (SIMI) . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.2.1 The Establishment and Early Years of SIMI . . . . . . . . 24
2.2.2 Rise in Communal Tensions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.2.3 SIMI Radicalizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.2.4 SIMI Banned . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.3 Growth of Islamist Militias in India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
2.3.1 Al-Umma . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.3.2 Gujarat Muslim Revenge Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.3.3 Asif Reza Commando Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.3.4 The Hyderabad Connection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

xiii
xiv Contents

2.4 Indian Mujahideen: A Jihadi Hybrid . . . . . . . . . .......... 33

2.4.1 The Gujarat Riots and Establishment
of Indian Mujahideen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.4.2 Public Emergence of Indian Mujahideen . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.4.3 Crackdown and Continuing Operations . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.5 Organizational Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.5.1 Structure and Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
2.5.2 Areas of Operation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.5.3 Membership. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.5.4 Tactics and Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
2.6 IM’s Links to Other Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.6.1 IM and SIMI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.6.2 IM and Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
2.7 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

3 Temporal Probabilistic Behavior Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

3.1 Database Schema . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
3.2 TP-Rule Syntax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
3.3 SOMA-Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
3.4 Extracting SOMA-Rules Automatically . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
3.5 Automatically Extracting TP-Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
3.6 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

4 Targeting Public Sites. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

4.1 Attacks Against Public Sites and Arrests of Indian
Mujahideen Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.2 Attacks Against Public Sites and Communications
About Their Campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.3 Attacks Against Public Sites and Claims of Responsibility . . . 66
4.4 Attacks on Public Sites and Conferences Held
by Indian Mujahideen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.5 Attacks on Public Sites and Membership in Other
Non-State Armed Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
4.6 Attacks on Public Sites and the Entertainment of Diplomatic
Relations Between India and Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
4.7 Operational Hypothesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
4.8 Conclusions and Policy Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

5 Bombings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.1 Bombings and Arrests of Indian Mujahideen Personnel. . . . . . 77
Contents xv

5.2 Bombings and Indian Mujahideen Communications

About Their Terror Campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
5.3 Bombings and Conferences Held by Indian Mujahideen . . . . . 80
5.4 Bombings and Claims of Responsibility for Past Attacks . . . . 81
5.5 Bombings and Membership in Other NSAGs . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
5.6 Bombings and Warming of Diplomatic Relations
Between India and Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
5.7 Bombings and Internal Conflict Within India. . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
5.8 Policy Options and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

6 Simultaneous and Timed Attacks . . . .............. ....... 89

6.1 Simultaneous and Timed Attacks and Conferences . . ....... 91
6.2 Simultaneous and Timed Attacks by IM and Arrests
of IM Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . .............. ....... 93
6.3 Simultaneous and Timed Attacks and Membership
in Other Armed Groups. . . . . . . .............. ....... 94
6.4 Conclusions and Policy Options . .............. ....... 94
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............. ....... 96

7 Total Deaths in Indian Mujahideen Attacks. . . . . . . . . . . ...... 97

7.1 Number Killed and Conferences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 99
7.2 Numbers Killed and Communications About
its Terror Campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 99
7.3 Number Killed and Arrests of Indian
Mujahideen Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
7.4 Numbers Killed and Improving Diplomatic Relations . . . . . . . 101
7.5 Numbers Killed and Relationship with Other NSAGs . . . . . . . 101
7.6 Numbers Killed and Claims of Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
7.7 Numbers Killed and Internal Conflict Within India. . . . . . . . . 103
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

8 Computing Policy Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 107

8.1 Policy Analysis Methodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 108
8.2 Computing Policies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 108
8.3 Computing Policies to Potentially Eliminate (Most)
Violent Acts by IM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
8.4 Note on Alternate Policy Computation Methodologies . . . . . . 111
8.5 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

9 Suggested Counter-Terrorism Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

9.1 Arrests of IM Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
9.2 IM Communication About Terror Campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
xvi Contents

9.3 IM Conferences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

9.4 IM Claims of Responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
9.5 Warming of India–Pakistan Diplomatic Relations . . . . . . . . . . 124
9.6 Monitoring Internal Religious Conflict Within India . . . . . . . . 125
9.7 Disrupting IM’s Relationship with Other NSAGs . . . . . . . . . . 127
9.8 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130

10 Building a National Counter-Terrorism Center . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

10.1 The U.S. Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
10.2 The Indian Experience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
10.3 NCTC-India Since 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
10.4 The Future of NCTC-India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139

Appendix A: Data Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

Appendix B: List of All Terrorist Attacks Carried Out by IM . . . . . . 151

Appendix C: List of All Temporal Probabilistic Rules Presented

in this Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

Appendix D: Instances of Improved Diplomatic Relations Between

India and Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161

Appendix E: Instances of Indian Mujahideens Conferences. . . . . . . . . 163

Appendix F: Indian Mujahideen Claims of Responsibility

for Attacks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

Appendix G: Instances of Indian Mujahideen Communications

About Its Terror Campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
Acronyms

ACE Automated Coding Engine

ANFO Ammonium Nitrate and Fuel Oil
APT Annotated Probabilistic Temporal
ARCF Asif Reza Commando Force
BJP Bharatiya Janata Party
CBI Central Bureau of Investigation
CCTNS Crime and Criminal Tracking and Network Systems
CID Central Investigation Division
CPMF Central Para-Military Forces
FARC Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia
FDLR Forces Democratiques de Liberation du Rwanda
GCHQ Government Communications Headquarters
GMRF Gujarat Muslim Revenge Force
HM Hizbul Mujahideen
HuJI Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami
HuM Harkat-ul-Mujahideen
IB Intelligence Bureau
IED Improvised Explosive Device
IJT Islami Jami’at-i-Tulaba
IM Indian Mujahideen
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence
JeI Jamaat-e-Islami
JeM Jaish-e-Mohammed
JIH Jamaat-e-Islami Hind
JIJK Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir
JTFI Joint Task Force on Intelligence
LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba
MAC Multi-Agency Centre
MHA Ministry of Home Affairs
NCTC National Counter-Terrorism Center
NGO Non-Governmental Organization
NIA National Investigation Agency
NSAG Non-State Armed Group
OASYS Opinion Analysis System

xvii
xviii Acronyms

PAGE Policy Analytics Generation Engine

PCA Policy Computation Algorithm
PLO Palestine Liberation Organization
R&AW Research and Analysis Wing
SIMI Students Islamic Movement of India
SIO Students Islamic Organization of India
SMS Short Message Service
SOMA Stochastic Opponent Modeling Agent
STATE Stochastic Temporal Analysis of Terrorist Events
TIM Tanzim Islahul Muslimeen
TOSCA Trie-Oriented Stage Change Attempts
TP Temporal Probabilistic
UK United Kingdom
ULFA United Liberation Front of Assam
USIS United States Information Service
Chapter 1
Introduction

Abstract The Indian Mujahideen (IM) is a terrorist group that seeks to destabilize
India and retaliate for the perceived mistreatment of Muslims in India. Though its
origins are unclear and the subject of some debate, there is no question that the
group has been responsible for about 750 deaths since October 2005. We analyzed
over 770 variables relating to IM on a monthly basis for a 9 year period, from 2002
to 2010, in order to identify the conditions under which IM carries out different
kinds of attacks. Using sophisticated ‘‘big data’’ analytics methods, we were able
to derive over 25,000 rules relating to IM’s behavior, of which roughly 29 are
presented in this book. In addition, using sophisticated ‘‘policy generation’’
techniques, we were also able to come up with policy recommendations that have
the potential of reducing attacks by IM.

On a foggy Tuesday morning in January 2002, the police contingent stationed

outside the American Center in Kolkata was barely awake when two motorcycles
drove up and unleashed a torrent of bullets on the unsuspecting policemen. Less
than a mile away, other police units were practicing for a parade to be held on
India’s Republic Day. In an attack that lasted just 4 minutes, terrorists were able to
kill four Indian policemen and injure another 18, as well as a private security guard
and a pedestrian. Later that day, two groups claimed responsibility for the attack—
the Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami and the A. R. Commandos, later known as the Asif
Reza Commando Force ARCF, (Battarcharya 2002).
Years later, some of the individuals who led this act of terror would play a role
in creating a much more lethal entity, the Indian Mujahideen (IM), a terrorist
group primarily based in India but also part of a wider network with operations in
Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and the Persian Gulf. With financing, training, travel
documents, logistics and operational support often provided by Lashkar-e-Taiba
(LeT) and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), IM grew out of its
origins into a professional terrorist group that has killed approximately 750 people
in India since October 2005 and over 1,000 if going back to the January 2002
attack.

V. S. Subrahmanian et al., Indian Mujahideen, Terrorism, Security, and Computation, 1

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-02818-7_1,  Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2013
2 1 Introduction

The first terrorist attack where the name ‘‘Indian Mujahideen’’ emerged was a
simultaneous attack on courthouses in the cities of Lucknow, Faizabad, and
Varanasi in India’s Uttar Pradesh state. Significantly, the group sent an email to the
media minutes before the blasts, claiming responsibility for the attacks. The same
email also claimed responsibility for attacks in Delhi on October 2005 and
Hyderabad on August 2007 (NDTV 2007).
When these earlier attacks occurred,1 Indian police were unaware of the
emergence of IM as a group and believed the attacks to have been orchestrated by
either LeT or HuJI. It was only in the aftermath of the November 2007 triple court
attacks in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and IM’s emailed communiqué that Indian security
services began to take the emergence of a domestic Islamist terrorist group seri-
ously (Gupta 2011).
The deadliest attack attributed to IM to date is the July 2006 Mumbai train
bombings that killed 209 people and injured over 700. Mumbai’s commuter train
system runs along two lines through the long, relatively narrow sliver of land that
is Mumbai. The line operated by Western Railways has a major hub at Churchgate
at the south end of the city and another major hub in Borivli near the north end.
Seven blasts rocked the city as passengers rode the trains from Churchgate. Over
2 years later, in September 2008, Indian police arrested Mohammed Israr Sadiq
Sheikh for his role in the 2006 attacks; he confessed to building the bombs in a
Mumbai apartment (Hafeez 2009).2
More recently (CNN 2013), the US State Department asserts that the Indian
Mujahideen played a ‘‘facilitative role’’ in the infamous November 2008 attacks on
Mumbai. Though the latter was primarily orchestrated by LeT with support from
Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence agency, this assertion from the US State
Department is extremely important.
Indian law enforcement agencies since then have made enormous progress in
their investigation and understanding of IM. A number of arrests have shed
important light on IM’s operations, including the arrests of Aftab Ansari and
Jamaluddin Nasir (both convicted by Indian courts of carrying out the January 22,
2002 attack on the American Center in Kolkata), as well as IM leaders such as
Mohammed Israr Sadiq Sheikh, the first of IM’s founder arrested to date. These
individuals and many others have provided valuable intelligence on IM’s origins,
IM’s operational planning, IM’s relationship with Pakistan’s ISI, and IM’s rela-
tionships with other terrorist groups like LeT and HuJI (Gupta 2011). As this book

1
See Appendix B for a list of attacks in which IM is a leading suspect.
2
The identity of the group that perpetrated the 2006 Mumbai train bombing is not known for
certain and is a source of some debate within both Indian and U.S. security circles. Sheikh has
recanted his confession to the 2006 bombings and the investigating Anti-Terrorism Squad has
dropped charges that Sheikh was involved in the 2006 bombing (PTI 2013). However, the other
most likely suspect, Pakistan-based LeT, helped establish IM by recruiting and training Indian
operatives. It is probable that, if the 2006 attacks were primarily orchestrated by LeT, the attacks
still had a substantial local component. For the purposes of this analysis, the Mumbai 2006
bombings have been considered a joint IM/LeT operation.
1 Introduction 3

went to press in August 2013, IM’s operational commander, Yassin Bhatkal had
just been arrested at the India–Nepal border and was being interrogated by Indian
law enforcement forces. It has been reported that Bhatkal has already provided
information on his travel to Dubai, Pakistan, and the USA (DNA India 2013). It is
likely that Bhatkal will provide further insight into IM’s network of operatives and
supporters as his interrogation continues.
Despite this wealth of information now starting to emerge, much in an excellent
book by Gupta (2011) and work reported by Fair (2010), there have been few
systematic studies of the Indian Mujahideen. Gupta (2011) provides a wealth of
information on IM’s origins, personnel, and operations, while Fair (2010) describes
the origins of IM and its relationship to the Students Islamic Movement of India
(SIMI). We treat these works as ‘‘source’’ data for our study, although our team has
explored a vast range of other open source information, particularly from the Indian
press. Moreover, as the last author served his entire career in Indian law enforcement
including a stint as Director of India’s Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), our
research team has had the opportunity to both look at ‘‘open source’’ information
and draw upon the benefits of years of experience within an investigative authority.
Finally, this work blends a mix of public policy, criminology, and technology in
a way that has never before been applied to analyzing IM and has only been
applied to one other terrorist group, LeT (Subrahmanian et al. 2012). A brief note
on our methods is therefore in order.
We use the sort of rigorous ‘‘big data’’ analysis that the Amazons and Ebays of
the world use to model the behavior of individual consumers, models that are then
used to present the consumers with product recommendations most likely to elicit
a ‘‘click’’. Just as Amazon and EBay systematically collect consumer data, we
collected data on more than 770 variables on a monthly basis from January 2002 to
December 2010.3 The data include variables describing the actions (and their
intensity) taken by IM as well as variables describing the environment within
which IM took those actions. We then used data mining algorithms (Subrahmanian
and Ernst 2009) to identify aspects of IM’s environment that predicted certain
types of IM attacks one to 5 months later. These variables, in conjunction with the
type of attack predicted, are represented via the methodology of temporal prob-
abilistic rules (TP-rules), originally introduced by Dekhtyar et al. (1999) and
subsequently used by Shakarian (2011) and (2012). We explain TP-rules in plain
English in Chaps. 4–7; readers with no computational background should find
these chapters accessible. Finally, we used the derived TP-rules and further
computational methods to automatically generate policies that may help reduce IM
terrorist attacks. Simplified versions of TP-rules were used to successfully model
the behavior of Hezbollah, Hamas, and Lashkar-e-Taiba (Mannes 2008a, 2008b,
2011; Mannes and Subrahmanian 2009).

3
Even though IM may or may not have existed in January 2002, actions carried out by some of
its predecessors such as ARCF and elements of SIMI were coded as part of IM during the
2002–2005 time frame.
4 1 Introduction

1.1 Organization of the Book

The rest of this book is organized as follows.

Chapter 2 contains a detailed description of the origins of the Indian Mujahideen
(IM), IM’s founders, and the groups involved in the creation of IM. It includes a
description of IM’s ideology, attacks carried out by IM, key IM leaders, the rela-
tionship between IM and other terrorist groups (e.g., LeT and HuJI), and the
relationship between IM and Pakistani intelligence.
Chapter 3 describes the temporal probabilistic (TP) rule formalism—this
chapter can be skipped by those not interested in the technology. The chapter
describes how these rules were automatically extracted from our IM dataset.
Chapter 4 contains a detailed description of IM attacks on public sites (such as
markets) and discusses the conditions under which IM has carried out such attacks
in the past. We note for the record in this chapter (as well as in subsequent chapters
analyzing IM’s behavior) that past behavior is not always a good predictor of
future behavior—but it is an essential starting point for any rigorous analysis.
Chapter 5 looks at a variety of bombings carried out by IM, including the
bombings that were possibly carried out in conjunction with other groups such as
LeT or HuJI. It identifies the conditions under which such attacks were carried out.
Chapter 6 describes the conditions under which IM carries out simultaneous
and/or timed attacks in which a number of blasts occur at or around the same time,
often but not always in the same city. Simultaneous attacks using improvised
explosive devices (IEDs) are a hallmark of IM operations. Such attacks have been
executed in Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh among other
locations. Moreover, IM has executed attacks using a variety of improvised
explosive device (IED) attacks using pressure cooker bombs, bicycle bombs and
car bombs, with a variety of explosives, including RDX and ammonium nitrate.
Their attacks show careful planning, including methods to stage a second attack so
as to target citizens escaping the aftermath of a first attack.
Chapter 7 studies the conditions that predict the total number of innocent
civilians killed in IM attacks.
Chapter 8 is a technical chapter that describes how we automatically generate
policies from the set of rules derived about IM. Readers not interested in the
technology can skip this chapter.
Chapter 9 describes the one policy that our Policy Computation Algorithm
generated to reduce attacks by IM. It discusses both what the policy says and
suggests methods to implement the policies.
Chapter 10 describes the need for India to build a National Counter-terrorism
Center (NCTC) similar to that created in the U.S. after 9/11. In contrast to the US,
states in India wield considerable power over police and internal security, posing a
significant obstacle to building an NCTC-India.
A set of appendices provides rich supplementary material. Specifically,
Appendix A describes the codebook (Shakarian et al. 2012) used to code data in
our IM dataset and also specifies how certain mathematical quantities used in this
1.1 Organization of the Book 5

book were calculated. Appendix B is a list of all terrorist attacks carried out by IM
and its predecessors during the 2002–2013 period. Appendix C is a list of all
TP-rules presented in this book. Appendix D is a list of some of the episodes when
there was a warming of diplomatic ties in the India–Pakistan relationship.
Appendix E is a list of some of the IM conferences that have been held over the
years; Appendix F is a list of reports of claims of responsibility issued by IM; and
Appendix G is a list of reports related to IM’s communications about its terror
campaign.

1.2 How to Read this Book

Readers with no interest in the technology used to derive the results in this book
can safely skip Chaps. 3 and 8 without losing any insights into IM’s behavior.
Readers with an interest in the technology will find technical details provided in
these two chapters; we do not provide the detailed mathematics used to derive our
algorithms here but explain it in a simple manner so as to convey the basic ideas of
how these computations are done. The details are provided in the technical ref-
erences provided in these chapters.

1.3 IM’s Lethality: A Summary

Though IM officially announced its existence only in November 2007, many of the
elements that eventually constituted IM existed for many years earlier, either in the
form of the ARCF or as the SIMI. As a consequence, our study is based on data on
IM attacks from 2002 through 2010; events since 2010 are also discussed but were
not coded in the data collection phase.
Figure 1.1 shows the number of attacks attributed to IM and its predecessors
during this time frame. Figure 1.1 shows the number of attacks, where an attack
might include a series of connected incidents; that is, simultaneous bombings
would be counted in Fig. 1.1 as one attack.
Figure 1.1 shows that IM does not carry out many attacks per year and that
2008, with five attacks, was the peak year for IM activity. Moreover, 2009 was a
quiet year in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks and crackdowns on IM by Indian
security. After 2009, IM returned to an operational tempo comparable to that of
pre-2008.
Figure 1.2 shows the total number of attacks when each event within a
simultaneous/timed bombing is counted as an individual attack. For instance, in
IM’s 2010 attack on Jama Masjid in Delhi, there was a drive-by shooting and a car
bomb. In Fig. 1.2, the drive-by and car bomb are each considered separately and
counted as two attacks for that day. As another example, IM set off five bombs and
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