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AAPL - Three Statement Model

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
56 views17 pages

AAPL - Three Statement Model

Uploaded by

jameswolf020
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Income Statement

$ in millions 2025 2026


Net Income $ 114,362 $ 125,204
Depreciation and Amortization $ 14,401 $ 16,620
Share-based compensation $ 12,392 $ 13,393
Change in Accounts receivable, net $ (2,011) $ (2,863)
Change in Inventories $ (1,644) $ (2,640)
Change in Vendor non-trade receivables $ (439) $ (624)
Change in Other current assets $ (860) $ (1,224)
Change in Accounts payable $ 3,453 $ 5,544
Change in Other current liabilities $ 4,713 $ 6,711
Change in Deferred revenue $ 497 $ 707
Change in Other non-current assets $ (7,945) $ (10,132)
Change in Other non-current liabilities $ 2,762 $ 3,933
Operating Cash Flow $ 139,681 $ 154,628

Capital Expenditures $ (12,628) $ (14,864)


Investing Cash Flow $ (12,628) $ (14,864)

Proceeds from/(Repayments of) commercial paper $ 33 $ -


Dividends $ (15,218) $ (15,218)
Stock Repurchases $ (95,846) $ (95,846)
Term debt $ -
Financing Cash Flow $ (111,031) $ (111,064)
Net Cash Flow $ 16,022 $ 28,700
2027 2028 2029
$ 139,345 $ 156,014 $ 171,731
$ 14,140 $ 14,230 $ 15,373
$ 14,317 $ 15,451 $ 16,489
$ (2,641) $ (3,240) $ (2,969)
$ (1,826) $ (2,368) $ (2,260)
$ (576) $ (707) $ (647)
$ (1,129) $ (1,386) $ (1,270)
$ 3,834 $ 4,973 $ 4,747
$ 6,190 $ 7,594 $ 6,958
$ 652 $ 800 $ 733
$ (9,891) $ (11,547) $ (11,228)
$ 3,628 $ 4,450 $ 4,078
$ 166,043 $ 184,264 $ 201,735

$ (11,710) $ (11,452) $ (12,436)


$ (11,710) $ (11,452) $ (12,436)

$ - $ - $ -
$ (15,218) $ (15,218) $ (15,218)
$ (95,846) $ (95,846) $ (95,846)

$ (111,064) $ (111,064) $ (111,064)


$ 43,269 $ 61,748 $ 78,235
Three Statement Model Apple Inc.
Company Apple Inc.
Ticker AAPL
Circuit Break (0=off, 1=on) 1
Fiscal Year End Date 9/28/2024
Scenario Base Case

Income Statement
$ in millions 2022 2023 2024 2025
Net Sales 394,328 383,285 391,035 414,572
Cost of Sales 223,546 214,137 210,352 220,885
Gross margin 170,782 169,148 180,683 193,687
Operating expenses
Research and development 26,251 29,915 31,370 33,258
Selling, general and administrative 25,094 24,932 26,097 27,668
Total operating expenses 51,345 54,847 57,467 60,926
EBITDA 130,541 125,820 134,661 147,162
Depreciation and Amortization 11,104 11,519 11,445 14,401
EBIT 119,437 114,301 123,216 132,761
Other income/(expense), net -334 -565 269 3,384
EBT 119,103 113,736 123,485 136,145
Provision for income taxes 19,300 16,741 29,749 21,783
Net income 99,803 96,995 93,736 114,362

Scenario Assumptions
Revenue Growth
Selected Case 6.0%
Upper Case -2.8% 2.0% 8.5%
Base Case -2.8% 2.0% 6.0%
Lower Case -2.8% 2.0% 3.5%
COGS as a % of Revenue
Selected Case 53.3%
Upper Case 56.7% 55.9% 53.8% 50.8%
Base Case 56.7% 55.9% 53.8% 53.3%
Lower Case 56.7% 55.9% 53.8% 55.8%
R&D as a % of Revenue
Selected Case 8.0%
Upper Case 6.7% 7.8% 8.0% 5.5%
Base Case 6.7% 7.8% 8.0% 8.0%
Lower Case 6.7% 7.8% 8.0% 10.5%
SG&A as a % of Revenue
Selected Case 6.7%
Upper Case 6.4% 6.5% 6.7% 4.2%
Base Case 6.4% 6.5% 6.7% 6.7%
Lower Case 6.4% 6.5% 6.7% 9.2%

Effective Tax Rate 16.2% 14.7% 24.1% 16.0%


2026 2027 2028 2029
448,084 478,996 516,921 551,667
237,797 249,494 264,663 279,144
210,286 229,502 252,257 272,523

35,947 38,426 41,469 44,256


29,904 31,967 34,498 36,817
65,851 70,394 75,967 81,074
161,056 173,248 190,519 206,822
16,620 14,140 14,230 15,373
144,435 159,108 176,290 191,450
4,501 6,301 8,926 12,426
148,937 165,409 185,216 203,875
23,733 26,064 29,202 32,144
125,204 139,345 156,014 171,731

Base Case
Variance
8.1% 6.9% 7.9% 6.7%
10.6% 9.4% 10.4% 9.2% 2.50%
8.1% 6.9% 7.9% 6.7%
5.6% 4.4% 5.4% 4.2% -2.50%

53.1% 52.1% 51.2% 50.6%


50.6% 49.6% 48.7% 48.1% -2.50%
53.1% 52.1% 51.2% 50.6%
55.6% 54.6% 53.7% 53.1% 2.50%

8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%


5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% -2.50%
8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 2.50%

6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%


4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% -2.50%
6.7% 6.7% 6.7% 6.7%
9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2% 2.5%

15.9% 15.8% 15.8% 15.8%


Balance Sheet
$ in millions 9/30/23 9/28/24 9/28/25
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents, ST and LT marketable securities 162,099 156,650 172,672
Accounts receivable, net 29,508 33,410 35,421
Inventories 31,477 32,833 34,477
Vendor non-trade receivables 6,331 7,286 7,725
Other current assets 14,695 14,287 15,147
Total current assets 244,110 244,466 265,442
Non-current assets:
Property, plant and equipment, net 43,715 45,680 47,347
Other non-current assets 64,758 74,834 79,338
Total non-current assets 108,473 120,514 126,685
Total assets 352,583 364,980 392,127

Current liabilities:
Accounts payable 62,611 68,960 72,413
Other current liabilities 58,829 78,304 83,017
Deferred revenue 8,061 8,249 8,746
Commercial paper / revolver 5,985 9,967 10,000
Total current liabilities 135,486 165,480 174,176
Non-current liabilities:
Long term debt (includes current portion) 105,103 96,662 96,662
Other non-current liabilities 49,848 45,888 48,650
Total non-current liabilities 154,951 142,550 145,312
Total liabilities 290,437 308,030 319,488
Shareholders’ equity:
Common stock and additional paid-in capital 73,812 83,276 95,668
Accumulated deficit -214 -19,154 -15,856
Accumulated other comprehensive loss -11,452 -7,172 -7,172
Total shareholders’ equity 62,146 56,950 72,639
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity 352,583 364,980 392,127

Check 0 0 0

Balance Sheet Assumptions


Share Based Compensation 10,833 11,688 12,392
9/28/26 9/28/27 9/28/28 9/28/29

201,372 244,641 306,390 384,624


38,284 40,925 44,166 47,134
37,117 38,942 41,310 43,570
8,349 8,925 9,632 10,279
16,371 17,501 18,886 20,156
301,494 350,935 420,383 505,764

49,309 50,855 52,366 54,008


85,752 91,667 98,925 105,575
135,061 142,522 151,292 159,583
436,554 493,457 571,675 665,347

77,957 81,792 86,765 91,512


89,728 95,918 103,512 110,470
9,452 10,105 10,905 11,638
10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
187,138 197,815 211,182 223,620

96,662 96,662 96,662 96,662


52,583 56,210 60,661 64,738
149,245 152,872 157,323 161,400
336,382 350,687 368,505 385,020

109,061 123,378 138,829 155,318


-1,717 26,564 71,514 132,181
-7,172 -7,172 -7,172 -7,172
100,172 142,770 203,170 280,327
436,554 493,457 571,675 665,347

0 0 0 0

13,393 14,317 15,451 16,489


Fixed Assets Schedule Actuals Forecast
$ in millions ### ### ### ### ###
Beginning PP&E 45,680 47,347
Capital Expenditures 10,708 10,959 9,447 12,628 14,864
Depreciation related to PPE (8,700) (8,500) (8,200) (10,961) (12,902)
Ending PP&E 43,715 45,680 47,347 49,309

Fixed Assets Metrics:


D&A related to PP&E as % of CapEx -81.2% -77.6% -86.8% -86.8% -86.8%

Total Depreciation & Amortization


D&A not related to PPE 2,404 3,019 3,245 3,440 3,718
D&A not related to PPE as % of Revenue 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
Total D&A 11,104 11,519 11,445 14,401 16,620

Other non-current assets


Beginning Other non-current assets 64,758 74,834 79,338
Less D&A not related to PP&E (3,245) (3,440) (3,718)
Additions 13,321 7,945 10,132
Ending Other non-current assets 64,758 74,834 79,338 85,752
Forecast
### ### ###
49,309 50,855 52,366
11,710 11,452 12,436 Actuals from CFS 10k, Forecast from CapIQ Analyst Coverage
(10,165) (9,940) (10,795)
50,855 52,366 54,008

-86.8% -86.8% -86.8%

3,975 4,290 4,578


0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
14,140 14,230 15,373

85,752 91,667 98,925


(3,975) (4,290) (4,578)
9,891 11,547 11,228
91,667 98,925 105,575
Retained Earnings Schedule Actuals Forecast
$ in millions ### ### ### ### ###
Beginning RE (214) (19,154) (15,856)
Net Income 99,803 96,995 93,736 114,362 125,204
Dividends (14,996) (15,218) (15,218) (15,218)
Share Repurchases (77,046) (95,846) (95,846) (95,846)
Ending RE (214) (19,154) (15,856) (1,717)
Forecast
### ### ###
(1,717) 26,564 71,514
139,345 156,014 171,731
(15,218) (15,218) (15,218)
(95,846) (95,846) (95,846)
26,564 71,514 132,181
Revolver Actuals Fo
$ in millions ### ### ###
Cash at beginning of period 156,650
Minimum cash balance % of revenue 2%
Minimum cash balance (8,291)
Free cash flows generate during the period 15,989
Cash available / (needed) to pay down / (draw from) revolver 164,348

Commercial paper / revolver


BOP commercial paper / revolver balance 9,967
Draw / (paydown) (9,967)
Discretionary borrowing 10,000
End of period 5,985 9,967 10,000

Other Income/ (Expense), Net


Commercial paper / revolver
Weighted-average interest rate 5.28% 5.00% 5.00%
EOP commerical paper / revolver balance 5,985 9,967 10,000
Interest expense 499

Term debt
Weighted-average interest rate 4.50% 4.50%
EOP term debt balance 105,103 96,662 96,662
Interest expense 4,350
Total interest expense 4,849

Interest Income
Weighted-average interest rate on cash 5.0%
Total interest income 8,233

Other Income/ (Expense), Net 3,384


Forecast
### ### ### ###
172,672 201,372 244,641 306,390
2% 2% 2% 2%
(8,962) (9,580) (10,338) (11,033)
28,700 43,269 61,748 78,235
192,411 235,061 296,051 373,591

10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000


(10,000) (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)
10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Assumption that Apple wants a CP balalnce of 10b on its BS
10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000

5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%


10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000
500 500 500 500

4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%


96,662 96,662 96,662 96,662
4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350
4,850 4,850 4,850 4,850

5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%


9,351 11,150 13,776 17,275

4,501 6,301 8,926 12,426


Income Statement 2022 2023 2024
Net Sales 394,328 383,285 391,035
Cost of Sales 223,546 214,137 210,352
Gross margin 170,782 169,148 180,683

Operating expenses
Research and development 26,251 29,915 31,370
Selling, general and administrative 25,094 24,932 26,097
Total operating expenses 51,345 54,847 57,467
Operating income 119,437 114,301 123,216

Other income/(expense), net -334 -565 269


Income before provision for income taxes 119,103 113,736 123,485
Provision for income taxes 19,300 16,741 29,749
Net income 99,803 96,995 93,736
Balance Sheet Sep-23 Sep-24
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents, ST and LT marketable securitie 162,099 156,650
Accounts receivable, net 29,508 33,410
Inventories 31,477 32,833
Vendor non-trade receivables 6,331 7,286
Other current assets 14,695 14,287
Total current assets 244,110 244,466

Non-current assets:
Property, plant and equipment, net 43,715 45,680
Other non-current assets 64,758 74,834
Total non-current assets 108,473 120,514
Total assets 352,583 364,980

Current liabilities:
Accounts payable 62,611 68,960
Other current liabilities 58,829 78,304
Deferred revenue 8,061 8,249
Commercial paper / revolver 5,985 9,967
Total current liabilities 135,486 165,480

Non-current liabilities:
Long term debt (includes current portion) 105,103 96,662
Other non-current liabilities 49,848 45,888
Total non-current liabilities 154,951 142,550
Total liabilities 290,437 308,030

Shareholders’ equity:
Common stock and additional paid-in capital 73,812 83,276
Accumulated deficit (214) (19,154)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (11,452) (7,172)
Total shareholders’ equity 62,146 56,950
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity 352,583 364,980

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