SEP 2025

Prioritising
UK Citizens
Averting the looming ‘Boriswave’ fiscal disaster,
and abolishing Indefinite Leave to Remain.
 Introduction
Reform will save the taxpayer £230 billion by taking decisive action on immigration and
welfare. Indefinite Leave to Remain will be abolished. No new awards granted and existing
ones rescinded, thus ending one of the greatest drains on the public purse. The law will
be changed so that only UK citizens are eligible for welfare, with every loophole closed
to prevent abuse. At the same time, the qualifying period for UK citizenship will be extended
to 7 years, ensuring that British nationality is earned through long-term commitment,
not handed out cheaply. Together, these measures will prevent the Boriswave from ever
accessing welfare and secure Britain’s future for its citizens.

The Problem
Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) is a scam on the British people and Boriswave ILR is a
ticking fiscal time bomb that has the potential to bankrupt the United Kingdom.

Britain is going broke. Last year, the British taxpayer spent £266 billion on welfare.
£52 billion of that went on Universal Credit. Of that, almost £9 billion went to foreign
nationals. 1 in 6 people on Universal Credit are foreign nationals.

The Tories and Labour have turned Britain into a food bank for the world, at the expense
of our own people.

This is about to become catastrophic. Between 2026 and 2030, thanks to the Boriswave,
800,000 new migrants are estimated to get Indefinite Leave to Remain. About half of all
of them will never work, ever. And yet, every single one of them will have full access to our
bloated welfare state for life.

UK Net Migration by Nationality (All Period)

Net Migration

Period
Data Source: ‘Net Migration Report (Office for National Statistics, 2025)

TOTAL NON-EU EU BRITISH

An immigrant’s contribution to public finances depends on two things - their age

(the young and old are expensive because of school and hospitals) and their earnings.

The average earnings for immigrants since 2020 has crashed by more than 30%.
The average recent immigrant earns far less than the average British citizen.
 Median monthly earnings of 22-40 year olds
by nationality compared to UK nationals

And note this is just the migrants who are actually working. Half of the Boriswave are not
working, and never will.

The Boriswave is not made up of scientists, entrepreneurs, and doctors. 60% of the
Boriswave are low-skilled immigrants who, once they’ve gained ILR, will bring further
family members and dependants along with them.

For example, in 2023, the UK Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) estimated
they would issue 6,000 social care visas. The real number ended up being 348,000 - a
staggering 58 times the government estimate. Remarkably, 55% of those were dependants.

Overall, the Boriswave allowed 3.8 million new people in the country on long term visas
(96% to non-EU nationals), of which 2 million are on the path to ILR. The Boriswave will
start to be eligible for ILR from 1 January 2026. Estimates suggest that at least 800,000
of these individuals will be granted ILR under current rules at a total
lifetime cost to the British taxpayer (likely underestimated) of £234 billion.

This extraordinary cost is a function of their average ages, their dependents, their earnings,
and how much they’ll consume in welfare over their lives.
 Age distribution at grant of ILR, 2010-2023

Source: OBR, CPS analysis

To put that in context, that’s 4 times our entire Defence budget, double our
Education budget, and 12 times our Police budget. Britain has become the world’s
food-bank, and instead of securing our borders, the Tory Government rolled out the
red carpet.

Labour announced in May that they would increase the qualifying period from 5 to 10 years
for ILR (but have not yet implemented this change) and the Conservatives have promised
to extend the qualifying period and make it easier to revoke ILR. Both have fudged the
position on acting retrospectively to stop the Boriswave getting ILR. Only Reform will
address this head on by abolishing ILR altogether.

The current rules require you to have lived in the UK for 5 years (can be shorter or longer
depending on visa type), not have spent more than 180 days outside the UK in any of
those years, passed a very basic English test, passed a ‘Life in the UK test’ and be of good
character. ILR entitles the recipient to access public funds (social housing, Universal Credit,
disability and other benefits), to NHS access without surcharge, to access student loans,
to bring family members (and for their children to become citizens), and to apply for
citizenship themselves after 12 months.
Our Solution
Reform will abolish ILR completely, meaning no new awards and those currently holding
it will have it rescinded.

Reform will change the law so nobody other than UK citizens will be eligible for any form
of welfare. All loopholes will be closed.

Reform will increase the qualifying period for UK citizenship to 7 years.

Reform will replace ILR a with a 5-year renewable visa, subject to considerably stricter
criteria, bringing the UK in line with comparators like the UAE. Anyone currently with ILR
will need to reapply. Requirements will include:

• Much higher salary thresholds (based on a verified job offer or averaged over the 5-year
period in case of renewal), with the right to bring dependants tied to those thresholds
that will be well above median earnings: Threshold 1 (which entitles the holder to bring
1 dependant); Threshold 2 (2 dependants) and Threshold 3 (no cap on dependants).
Exact salary thresholds will be determined based on net fiscal cost modelling
close to the general election. Reform is giving business lots of advance
notice that the era of cheap foreign labour is over.

• Not having accessed welfare benefits or other public funds (apart from the NHS after
having paid the surcharge).

• Stricter rules around good character, covering deception (around their visa application),
financial misconduct, tax compliance and criminal convictions, all of which will be more
rigorously checked via biometric information.

• A much higher standard of English will be required. This means speaking

fluent English to C1 on the CEFR scale (the current requirement is absurdly
low at B1, which means you can ‘deal with most situations likely to arise whilst
travelling’).

• Have spent no more than 90 days in any given year outside of the UK.

• This visa offers no recourse to welfare of any kind.

The qualifying period for citizenship will be extended to 7 years, and applicants will have
to demonstrate near-native levels of English and renounce other citizenships.

Acute Skills Shortage Visa (ASSV)

Acute Skills Shortage Visas (ASSV), will be issued in extremely limited and capped numbers
and only issued when there is clear evidence of acute shortages in national-criti-
cal roles. Each ASSV will carry a one-for-one training guarantee: for every visa issued,
the sponsoring employer must fund, via a levy, a commensurate training programme
to produce a UK worker for that occupation, ensuring that temporary reliance on
overseas labour directly builds long-term domestic capacity.
Entrepreneur/Investor Routes
A Reform government will welcome genuine wealth-creators. The entrepreneur and
investor routes will remain and indeed be added to, supporting founders, innovators, and
those willing to commit significant capital to our economy. In this way we will end the era of
mass immigration, keep a narrow valve for urgent skills, and still welcome those who come
to build and invest in Britain’s future.

Implementation
A Reform Government will change the rules to end ILR and make any other necessary
changes in primary legislation. This will involve the Reform Home Secretary issuing
immediate changes to the Immigration Rules and then passing legislation within the
First 100 Days to make necessary framework changes, such as to naturalisation criteria.

These will accompany other changes to the immigration framework (repealing the Human
Rights Act, leaving the ECHR, stopping legal aid for immigration challenges, ending
‘No Recourse to Public Funds’ loopholes, and passing the Illegal Immigration
(Mass Deportation) Bill). Collectively these changes will reform legal and illegal
immigration frameworks to finally get a grip of Britain’s borders. Reform is putting business
on notice that the era of cheap foreign labour is over (ending bogus sponsors and absurdly
low salary thresholds).

These changes will lead to hundreds of thousands of people having to apply and ultimately
losing their settled status in the UK, which will be done on a staggered and orderly
basis to allow businesses to train British workers to replace them. Many of those who will lose
their leave to remain are entirely dependent on the welfare state and will leave voluntarily
upon losing access to benefits. Those that don’t will be subject to immigration enforcement
as part of Operation Restoring Justice.

The result of these changes by a Reform government will be savings to the UK taxpayer
well in excess of £230 billion.
Promoted by Reform UK, Millbank Tower, 21-24 Millbank, London, SW1P 4QP.