Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No.

60, Part (1): 521-535

Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

The Effect of Fluctuations in Oil Prices and Foreign

Reserves on Consumer Price Indices
Sameer Abdul Sahib Yara a *, Lamees Mohammed Aljanabi b
a
College of Administration and Economics, Mustansiriyah University.
b
Administrative Technical College, Middle Technical University.

Abstract: Iraq mainly depends on oil revenues to

Keywords: finance the general budget, so the fluctuations in its
prices affect most economic and financial indicators, as
Oil prices; foreign reserves; well as the foreign reserves held by the Central Bank.
consumer price index numbers. Therefore, the current research aims to study the
impact of these fluctuations in the value of foreign
ARTICLE INFO reserves and in consumer prices, which affect the life
of the citizen directly. For the purpose of achieving the
Article history: objectives of the research and reaching the results, a
Received 23 Sep. 2022 number of statistical methods were used, the most
Accepted 04 Oct. 2022 important of which is the test (F) and the degree of
Available online 24 Feb. 2023 morality (Sig) to test the significance of the effect.

©2023 College of Administration and

Economy, Tikrit University. THIS IS
AN OPEN ACCESS ARTICLE
UNDER THE CC BY LICENSE
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

*Corresponding author:

Sameer Abdul Sahib Yara

College of Administration and
Economics, Mustansiriyah University.
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

‫تأثير تقلباث اسعار النفط واالحتياطياث االجنبيت في مؤشر اسعار المستهلك‬

‫لميس محمـذ مطرود‬ ‫سمير عبذ الصاحب ياره‬
‫الكليت التقنيت االداريت‬ ‫كليت اإلدارة واقتصاد‬
‫الجامعت التنقيت الىسطى‬ ‫الجامعت المستنصريت‬

‫المستخلص‬
‫ نذنك فاٌ انتمهباث فً اسعارِ تؤثز فً يعظى‬،‫ٌعتًذ انعزاق بشكم اساسً عهى عائذاث انُفط فً تًىٌم انًىاسَـت انعايت‬
‫ نذا ٌهذف انبحث انحانً انى‬.‫انًؤشزاث االلتصادٌت وانًانٍت وكذنك فً االحتٍاطٍاث االجُبٍت انتً ٌحتفظ بها انبُك انًزكشي‬
.‫دراست تأثٍز تهك انتمهباث فً لًٍت االحتٍاطٍاث االجُبٍت وفً اسعار انًستههك وانتً تأثز فً حٍاة انًىاطٍ بشكم يباشز‬
‫) ودرجت انًعُىٌت‬F( ‫ونغزض تحمٍك اهذاف انبحث وانىصىل انى انُتائج تى استخذاو عذد يٍ االسانٍب االحصائٍت اهًها اختبار‬
‫ وتىصم انبحث انى يجًىعت يٍ انُتائج اهًها "تأثٍز لًٍت االحتٍاطٍاث االجُبٍت أكبز يٍ تأثٍز‬،‫ ) الختبار دالنت انتأثٍز‬Sig(
.‫تمهباث اسعار انُفط فً اسعار انًستههك‬
.‫ اسعار انًستههك‬،‫ االحتٍاطٍاث االجُبٍت‬،‫ اسعار انُفط‬:‫الكلماث الذالت‬

1. Research Methodology
1-1. Research problem.
Oil revenues are one of the most important sources of financing the
general budget of many oil-producing countries. Therefore, fluctuations in
their prices have a direct impact on the value of foreign reserves, as well as
on the economic and living situation of the citizen, and this is reflected in
the consumer price indices and inflation rates. Here, the research problem
appears that It can be formulated through the following question, "The
extent of the impact of oil price fluctuations on consumer price indices"
1-2. Research importance: The importance of the research lies in studying
the impact of oil price fluctuations on one of the most important economic
indicators that show the standard of living of the individual through
consumer price indices, in additional the value of foreign reserves
maintained by the Central Bank of Iraq, which aims to control exchange
rate fluctuations and increase creditors’ confidence in the local currency.
1-3. research aims: The research aims to achieve the following:
1. Reviewing the conceptual framework for each of oil prices, reserves and
consumer price indices.
2. Measuring the impact of fluctuations in Brent crude oil prices on the value
of foreign reserves and consumer price indices, as well as measuring the
impact of oil prices and reserves in a collective manner on consumer price
indices.

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

1-4. Research hypotheses: The research is based on four main hypotheses

are:
1. There is a statistically significant effect of the fluctuations of Brent crude
oil prices on the value of foreign reserves.
2. There is a statistically significant effect of the fluctuations of Brent crude
oil prices in the consumer price indices.
3. There is a statistically significant effect of the value of foreign reserves on
the consumer price indices.
4. There is a statistically significant effect of fluctuations in Brent crude oil
prices and foreign reserves combined in the consumer price indices.
1-5. Duration and field of study: The research took Iraq as a case study
and for the period (2016) until the tenth month of the year (2021) at
monthly prices.
2. Theoretical Framework:
2-1. Oil prices: Oil is an important source of primary energy and a main
pillar of the global economy since its discovery until now. Its name is
derived from the Latin "peter oleum" which means "peter" rock in the Latin
language, and "oleum" is called crude oil or rock oil, and sometime
"Naphtha" which is derived from the word. Naft or "Navata" four the
Persian language which means transmissible and for its great importance in
the global economy, it is often called black gold (Al Hamwi, 2015: 11). Oil
is defined as a dense, highly flammable black liquid composed of a mixture
of organic compounds, which consist of the element carbon and hydrogen,
and they are known as hydrocarbons, especially the alkanes series, it is one
of the natural resources that the major industrialized countries are racing to
import from the producing countries (Khairallah, 2014: 16). It is worth
noting that many oil producing countries rely heavily on oil export
revenues to finance their public budgets such as Iraq which mainly depends
on these revenues. Rather, its contribution rate exceeds (90%) in financing
the general budget. Therefore, fluctuations in world oil prices greatly effect
this budget as well as its balance of payments, and most economic
indicators were affected as a result of these fluctuations. As Iraq is the
fourth country in the world in terms of production after the United states,
Russia and Saudi Arabia, and fifth country in terms of reserves, with a
quantity of (147.2) billon barrels and a default life of (88) years
(OPIC:2019). And oil was discovered for the first time in Iraq on the

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

fourteenth of October of the year 1927 in the field Kirkuk-1. Historically,

the pricing of Iraq crude oils exported to world markets has gone through
several stages, as well as follows (Alattar, 2018: 16):
1. The first stage, 1930 to 1951: The fixed price system of (4) four British
gold shilling per ton (a ton is approximately 7 barrels).
2. The second stage four 1952 to 1972: The system of price announced by the
oil companies and the agreements to share profits about (0.9) per barrel.
3. The third stage 1973 t0 1989: Following production management system
and the official pricing for OPEC.
4. The fourth stage, 1989 until now: OPEC the management of production
and the system of global market price.
2-1-1. Global market price system: Iraqi oil is sold to three global
markets: Europe, America, and Asia for east for each of these markets,
there is a signal oil around the world (Market crude), which is used as a
basis for pricing one barrel of oil exported from Iraq to each of these
markets, as follows (Al attar: 2018):
1. Europe market, the signal oil is the price of a barrel of Brent oil produced
from the North Sea.
2. America market, the signal oil is the price of a barrel of ASCI oil produced
from the American fields.
3. Asia market: The signal oil is average price of Dubai and Oman oil
produced from Oman and the UAE.
The oil marketing company of the Federal Ministry of oil is the
executing body for contracts for the sale of crude oil to all three global
markets, as this company has a long experience in the field of concluding
oil sales contracts and selling controls for choosing the parties to whom oil
is sold. This company follows the method of selling crude oil on board the
tanker at the Iraq export ports or what is called in the international oil
markets (Free on Board FOB) this means that the buyer is the one who
bears the transportation and insurance costs to the sender, and in return he
gets a discount in the pricing equation equivalent to the cost of
transportation and insurance to the home of the signal oil. According to the
following equation:
P = (AMC) + / - (Md) +/ - (AP) +/- (W).
If the p: the net price of Iraq crude oil, AMC: signal oil price average
(according to global price bulletins and for each market), Md: monthly

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

difference determined by the competent committee in the oil marketing

company (positive or negative), and AP is specific density (API Gravity) to
the actual shipment for the contractual specifications (positive or negative),
w: a percentage of transport charges, insurance and risks to the relevant
market (According to the international daily bulletins).
2-2. Foreign reserve: According to the International monetary fund,
foreign reserve is defined as "the available balance of foreign assets that are
available at the monetary authorities and used by the state to cover
imbalances in international payments or to influence the exchange rate or
for other purposes (Dominguez, 2015: 4). As the reserve are the external
assets at the disposal of the monetary authority and subject to its control to
meet the needs of the financing balance of payments or to intervene in the
exchange markets to influence in the currency exchange rate, or in addition
to maintaining confidence in the local currency and forming a basis for
external borrowing, those assets must be in foreign currency and actually
exits, and potential assets are excluded from them. The concept of reserve
assets is also based on the can concepts of "Controlling" and "allowing use"
for the monetary authority. The process of managing foreign exchange
reserves is a very complex matter, as the success in managing these
reserves is reflected in the form of increase confidence in the applied
economic policies, especially monetary policy, Became it includes a
balance between three elements, liquidity, security and profitability, in
addition to the opportunity cast of maintaining these reserves. Here, foreign
reserves must be a listing wished from back deposits with the central back,
it is what is required by the legal reserves ratio that obliges every
commercial bank to keep a certain percentage with the central bank, on the
other hand, the reserves are owned by the monetary authority and at the
disposal of the central bank to be used when necessary and at the required
speed to confront the accident al imbalance in the balance of payments or
to defend the exchange rate (Jones, 2018: 9). Usually foreign reserves
consist of the following (Reza et al., 2014: 6):
1. Foreign currencies: They are the official reserves of strong foreign
currencies that are at the disposal of the central Bank.
2. Reserve in the international monetary fund, which means the reserve
segment that a member country may with draw from the fund within a short
period.

252
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

3. Special drawing right, (SCR): It is an international reserve asset created by

the international monetary fund in 1969. The value of this asset is
determined based on a basket of five major international currencies (the
dollar, the euro, the yen, the pound sterling and the Yuan Chinese) and can
be exchanged for any of the freely tradable currencies. The share of each
country is determined on the basis of its share in the international monetary
fund.
4. Monetary Gold: It is the gold that the monetary authorities own and keep as
reserve assets, and it consists of gold bars, including gold coins, ingots and
bars, which reaches its at least (9.999) parts per thousand.
5. Other reserve assets including liquid assets that are available at the disposal
of the monetary authorities.
Through these components, the importance of foreign reserves emerges in
terms of improving the country's credit rating and increasing confidence in
the local currency by creditors, as well as controlling exchange rate
fluctuations (vinals,2016:4).
2-3. Consumer price indices: The index is defined as "a statistical tool for
measuring the changes of a set of data compared to a specific basis"
(kazim, 2014: 101). And it is also known as "a statistical measure that
measures the change in the value of a phenomenon at a specific level that
cannot be directly observed or measured"(Ahmed,2018:3). In other words,
the index measures the average changes in the price or group quantities of
goods in comparison with a specific time period or with a specific market
that is considered a basis for comparison. Therefore, the index is useful in
knowing how the price level of a group of goods has changed, or how the
volume of its production or consumption has changed over time, and by it
is possible to compare the movement of price levels for different groups of
goods, or comparing price levels and wage levels, or comparing changes in
exports and imports. The indices are one of the oldest and widely spread
economic indicators and the degree of interest in it was often related to the
intensity inflation, the more sever the inflation the greater the need to find a
digital indicator to measure it and to carry out the treatments required by
the inflation situation with other economic variables. The consumer price
index reflects the development of a budget cost belonging to a particular
category of consumers, and it is called by other names such as the cost of

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

living index (Wilson, 2014: 15). There are three main uses for price indices
and as following (kazim, 2014: 111):
1. It is used as an indicator to measure the intensity of inflation and follow it
up and compare between types of prices (consumer, wholesale, import) or
between population groups or between countries and other comparisons.
2. Recalculating some values, such as value-added value or production values,
after excluding the effect of inflation, that is, to calculate those values at
fixed prices for a certain period.
3. The opposite use of the second use, that is, to recalculate some values such
as wages and loans after inserting the effect of inclusion on them to
recalculate them at current prices from what they were at prices for a
certain period.
There are a number of ways to calculate consumer price indices,
including:
1. simple index number: It is simplest of standard number and represent the
price or quantity for a particular commodity in the comparison period to its
price or its quantity in a fixed year called basis period or the support period
so the rate of price:

If the pn is the item price in the comparison year, and po is the item
price in the base year.
2. Simple aggregate index number: This method expresses the prices of a
group of commodities in the comparison year as a percentage of their total
prices in the base year. The simple the simple aggregate index of prices for
a group of commodities is:
∑
100× ∑
3. Un weighted average of price index number: There are There are many
formulas that depend on the method used to obtain the means of the levels,
such as the arithmetic mean, the geometric mean, the harmonic mean, or
the proxy mean:
∑
4. Weighted price index: In order to get rid of the defects of the simple
aggregate method, the prices of each commodity are weighted by using an
appropriate coefficient for it. The quantity or volume of the commodity is

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

often used during the base period and the year of comparison. These
weights indicate the relative importance of the commodity in question.
There are two of the most common formulas:
A. Laspeyres price (base weighted) price index:
∑

Where p1 stands for comparison price, p0 stands for the bass price,
q1 stands for the comparison quantities, q0 stands for the base quantities.
As the price of each commodity in accordance with this law is outweighed
by its quantities in the base period, this law is called the law of fixed bass
weights but this law equalizes the relative importance between the
commodities whose price have decreased and the commodities whose
prices have risen and imposed according to the law of supply and demand,
the demand for goods that decrease price and less demand for goods whose
increase.
B. The passche (current-weighted) price index: The formula for Bash's law
corresponding to Lasper's formula is:
∑
∑
According to Bash's Law, the price of each commodity is
outweighed by its quantities in the comparison period. Therefore, Bash's
Law is called the Law of Variable Comparison Weights, because the
weights change in it with the change in the comparison period. This law
adopts the idea of the instability of the quantitative pattern of consumer
goods and the emergence and disappearance of goods that affect supply and
demand. The numerator in Bash's Law equals the sum of the values paid to
purchase the comparison quantities, and the denominator equals the sum of
the same values, but they are valued at base period prices.
3. Practical Framework
3-1. Analyze the value of the search variables: Appendix (1) shows the
values of the research variables represented in Brent crude oil prices, the
value of foreign reserves of the Central Bank of Iraq and the general
consumer price index during the period (2012-2021) with monthly values.
It was found from the table that the average price of a barrel of Brent crude
oil amounted to 53.65 dollars, meaning that it rose by 148% during the
research period. We note that the lowest recorded price was in the fourth

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

month of 2020, as it amounted to (18.84) dollars. The reason for this

decline is the rapid spread of the (COVID-19) pandemic, which led to the
closure of the economy as well as the fear of its future, as it reached the
highest price at the end of the period, as it reached (83.57) dollars
(https://sa.investing.com/). And since the Iraqi economy depends mainly on
oil revenues in financing the general budget, it turns out that the highest
value of foreign reserves in the same period was the highest, with a value
of (90.99) trillion dinars. We also note from the data that there are clear
differences when comparing oil prices and the value of reserves, and this
comes for two reasons, one of which is the decrease in the volume of oil
exports, whether due to low demand or the (OPIC +) agreement, which
reduced Iraq’s share by one million barrels per day, and the second reason
is that the Central Bank of Iraq By decreasing the value of the Iraqi dinar
against the US dollar, as the value of the dollar increased to record (1450)
dinars per dollar, after it was (1182) dinars at the end of the year 2020, and
this led to a decrease in the value of the currency sold in the currency
window, and thus the increase in the value of the reserves. It also appears
that the lowest value of the reserves recorded was in the tenth month of
2016, as it amounted to (54.18) trillion dinars. It is noted that the highest
value of consumer prices was recorded at (113) at the end of the period,
which corresponds to the highest price of a barrel of oil and the highest
value of cash reserves, as well as the value of inflation reached (7) points,
as in the eighth month 2021 and with the same number of points, which
corresponds to the highest inflation and the value of (8) points. This is
logical from an economic point of view, as the increase in the value of oil
will lead to an increase in revenues and thus an increase in the money
supply and a rise in consumer prices, and thus inflation. And oil prices
recorded the highest rise in the fourth month of 2020, as it increased
compared to the previous month by (88%), while the highest value of
reserves was recorded in the last month of 2020, with an increase of (20%)
compared to the previous month, which is the same period in which both
the consumer price and inflation were record at it reached (3%) for
consumer price and (3) points for inflation.
3-2. Testing the research hypothesis: Table (2) shows the value of the test
of correlation and effect between the research variables.

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

Table (2): The results of the correlation and effect between the
research variable
independent Test s value
Idependent variable
variable R R2 F Sig
Brent crude foreign reserves 0.25 0.06 4.32 0.040
oil price Consumer price indice 0.46 0.21 17.84 0.000
foreign
Consumer price indices 0.64 0.41 46.33 0.000
reserves
It was found that all the correlations between the research variables
have recorded direct relationships between them, as positive values were
recorded that ranged between (0.25-0.64). As we note that the value of the
correlation between the price of Brent crude oil and the value of foreign
reserves has reached (0.25), and the value of the interpretation coefficient
(R2) (0.06) was recorded, meaning that (6%) of the changes that occur in
the value of foreign reserves is because the changes that occur In oil prices,
this result may be very low, especially in Iraq, as it depends mainly on oil
revenues in financing the budget. The reason for this may be the large
fluctuations in the volume of currency sales in the window, which is
approved by the Central Bank. Thus, the value of (F) (04.32) and the value
(Sig) calculated (0.04) which is lower than its tabular value of (0.5)and
with a confidence level of (5%), and thus these results prove the existence
of a significant effect of Brent crude oil price on the value of foreign
reserves, and this proves the acceptance of the first main hypothesis. . The
value of the correlation of oil prices with indices was recorded (0.46) and
with a direct relationship, and this relationship is of medium strength, and
this is evident from the value of the interpretation coefficient (R2), which
amounted to (0.21) and this explains that (21%) of the changes that occur
in the consumer price indices are Because of changes in oil prices. Thus,
the value of (F) (17.84) and the calculated value of (Sig) were recorded
(0.000), which is lower than its tabular value, and thus the second main
hypothesis is accepted. As for the correlation and effect of the second
independent variable, which is cash reserves, in the consumer price indices,
it may be found that a correlation coefficient between them was recorded
(0.64), that is, there is a strong direct relationship between the two
variables, and therefore the value of the interpretation coefficient was
recorded (0.41) and this explains that (41%) One of the changes in

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

consumer price indices are because to changes that occur in the value of
reserves, it also recorded that value of (Sig) calculation (0.000), which is
lower than its tabular value of (0.05) and with a confidence level of (5%),
and this proves the acceptance of the third main hypothesis, which states
that “there is a significant, statistically significant effect of the value of
foreign reserves in the consumer price indices". In the case of testing each
of the oil prices and foreign reserves as independent variables and their
impact on the consumer price indices using the multiple regression method,
the results appeared as follows:
Table (3): The results of testing the impact of oil prices and foreign
reserves on consumer price indices
independent variable dependent
Test results
variable
Brent crude oil prices Consumer R R2 F ig
foreign reserves price indices 0.71 0.50 33.59 0.000
Source: Prepared by researchers using SPSS-V25.
It is clear from the table in the case of testing the relationship and the
impact of each oil prices and foreign reserves as independent variables
(instead of a single effect) in the consumer price indices, the correlation
coefficient recorded a value that exceeded the correlation coefficient
recorded by each variable separately, as it reached (0.71). The value is a
strong direct relationship between the variables, as the value of (R2) was
recorded (0.50), and this explains that (50%) of the changes that occur in
the consumer price indices were because of the changes that occurred in
both oil prices and foreign reserves. The value of the calculated (Sig),
which shows the significance of the effect, was (0.000), which is less than
its tabular value, thus proving the significance of the effect and the
acceptance of the fourth main hypothesis.
Conclusions and Recommendations
A. Conclusions
1. Oil revenues contribute to a large percentage of financing the general
budget in Iraq, often reaching more than 90%, and therefore fluctuations in
oil prices directly affect the Iraqi economy.
2. Iraq exports its oil production to three important markets in the world,
namely Europe, America and Asia, and the price of oil is determined

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

according to the reference oil price approved in those markets, which are
Brent oil, ASCI, Oman and UAE oil, respectively.
3. The rise in consumer price indices after changing the exchange rate of the
Iraqi dinar against the US dollar from 1182 to 1450 dinars.
4. The results showed that the effect of oil price fluctuations on consumer
price indices recorded a value higher than its effect in indices, as the value
of the coefficient of determination reached (R2) (0.21) and in foreign
reserves (0.06).
5. Foreign reserves recorded an effect on the indices, a value greater than the
effect of fluctuations in oil prices in the indices, as the value of the
coefficient of determination reached (0.41).
6. The combined effect of oil price fluctuations and the value of reserves
recorded in the indices a value greater than the value of the single effect.
B. Recommendations
1. Creating new sources of funding to finance the general budget and not to
rely heavily on oil revenues to avoid the impact of oil price fluctuations on
the Iraqi economy.
2. Maintaining the stability of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the US
dollar in order to maintain the consumer price indices as it is an influential
factor in the living life of the citizen.
3. Establishing a high-quality control system to monitor the prices of
foodstuffs and the prices of other consumer items, thus maintaining the
stability of consumer price indices.
4. Maintaining the level of foreign reserves in the Central Bank of Iraq.
References
1. Ahmed, Dheyab, (2019), Forecasting consumer price indices in Iraq- The Tenth
International Scientific Conference/College of dministration and Economics/University
of Karbala.
2. Al-Hamwi, Saad Khalifa, (2015), The Basics of Energy / Petroleum-Electricity-Gas
Production, First Edition.
3. Al-Attar, Ihsan, (2018), Factors Affecting the Pricing of Iraqi Crude Oil in International
Markets- Iraqi Economists Network.
4. Dominguez, Kathryn, (2015), International Reserves and Underdeveloped Capital
Markets, Research Seminar in International Economics, The University of Michigan,
Discussion Paper, No. 600.
5. Jones, Bradley, (2018), Reserve Management and International Financial Stability:
Some Reflections from the Crisis, https://www.rba.gov.au/ speeches /2018/pdf/sp-so.

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

6. Kazem, Ibrahim, (2014), Indices and the methodology of their application in economic
activities (Iraq as a model)- Diyala journal for pure science, VO:7,
7. OPEC report, (2020), https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_ files_project/media/
downloads/publications/AR%202019%20for%20web.pdf.
8. Reza, Moghadam & Jonathan, Ostry & Sheehy, Robert, (2014), International monetaey
fund- Assesing Reserve Adequ:acy" Monetary and capital market, research and
strategy, policy, and review departments- https://www.imf.org/ external/
np/pp/eng/2014/021411b.pdf.
9. Vinals, Jose, (2016), Revised Guidelines for Foreign Exchange Reserve Management”,
international monetary fund-https://activismenbbdotbe.files. wordpress. Com
/2016/01/opmerkingimf.pdf.
10. wheed, khair Allah, (2014), The importance of oil wealth in the international economy
and alternative strategies -a case study of Algeria, Master's Thesis in Economic
Sciences – Algeria.
11. Investment https://sa.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data.

Appendix (1)
The values of the research variables for the period (2016) until (1/11/2021)
with monthly values
Brent oil Foreign Consumer Base
Time price Reserves price inflation
(Dolar) (ID) (point) (point)
1- 2016 33.62 60.787 105 -1
2-2016 33.75 59.144 105 2
3-2016 38.34 59.399 104 2
4-2016 45.92 59.285 104 2
5-2016 49.1 58.487 104 3
6-2016 48.33 56.608 104 0
7-2016 41.6 56.638 104 0
8-2016 44.7 56.522 104 0
9-2016 48.24 55.663 105 0
10-2016 46.86 54.181 104 0
11-2016 49.44 52.957 104 -1
12-2016 53.72 53.106 104 -1
1-2017 52.81 53.871 104 -1
2-2017 54.01 53.837 104 -1
3-2017 50.6 53.780 105 0

255
Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

Brent oil Foreign Consumer Base

Time price Reserves price inflation
(Dolar) (ID) (point) (point)
4-2017 49.33 53.741 105 1
5-2017 48.32 54.415 104 0
6-2017 46.04 54.241 103 0
7-2017 50.17 54.160 104 1
8-2017 47.23 55.173 105 0
9-2017 51.67 55.611 105 0
10-2017 54.38 55.915 104 0
11-2017 57.4 56.313 104 1
12-2017 60.42 57.893 105 1
1-2018 64.73 59.227 104 0
2-2018 61.64 59.262 104 0
3-2018 64.94 60.441 104 -1
4-2018 68.57 62.323 104 -1
5-2018 67.04 62.780 105 1
6-2018 74.15 64.931 105 2
7-2018 68.76 66.875 106 2
8-2018 69.8 68.889 105 0
9-2018 73.25 69.159 105 0
10-2018 65.31 71.590 106 1
11-2018 50.93 73.960 105 1
12-2018 45.41 76.017 105 0
1-2019 53.79 75.288 105 1
2-2019 57.22 76.800 104 0
3-2019 60.14 77.692 105 1
4-2019 63.91 77.399 104 1
5-2019 53.5 77.227 104 -1
6-2019 58.47 79.444 104 -1
7-2019 58.58 80.001 104 -2
8-2019 55.1 81.129 105 0
9-2019 54.07 80.158 104 -1
10-2019 54.18 80.512 105 -1
11-2019 55.17 80.408 105 0
12-2019 61.06 79.918 105 0

255
 Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences, (31/12/2022); Vol. 18, No. 60, Part (1): 521-535
Doi: www.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.18.60.1.30

Brent oil Foreign Consumer Base

Time price Reserves price inflation
(Dolar) (ID) (point) (point)
1-2020 51.56 79.376 105 1
2-2020 44.76 79.238 105 1
3-2020 20.48 79.698 106 1
4-2020 18.84 80.804 105 0
5-2020 35.49 79.567 105 1
6-2020 39.27 77.515 104 0
7-2020 40.27 78.570 104 0
8-2020 42.61 76.797 105 0
9-2020 40.22 69.814 105 1
10-2020 35.79 68.032 106 1
11-2020 45.34 65.132 105 0
12-2020 48.52 78.293 108 3
1-2021 52.2 80.285 109 3
2-2021 61.5 81.609 110 4
3-2021 59.16 84.778 110 4
4-2021 63.58 86.406 110 6
5-2021 66.32 88.642 110 6
6-2021 73.47 87.020 111 7
7-2021 73.95 87.085 112 7
8-2021 68.5 86.781 113 8
9-2021 75.03 86.409 112 7
10-2021 83.57 90.985 113 7
average 53.65 69371.3 106 1.11
Source: Prepared by the researcher based on the data of the Central Bank.

252