Probability Notes Explanation (Exact Wording)
Got it ■ Let’s break down what’s written in your notes and then I’ll explain with **examples**.
---
### **What is Probability?**
Probability means **chance or possibility** of something happening.
Example: When you toss a coin, the probability of getting a head is **50% (½)**.
---
### **Random Experiment**
An experiment is called **random** if it satisfies 3 conditions:
1. **We know all possible outcomes.**
- Example: Tossing a coin → outcomes are {Head, Tail}.
- Example: Rolling a die → outcomes are {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
2. **We cannot predict the exact outcome in advance.**
- Example: Before tossing a coin, you can’t be 100% sure if it will be Head or Tail.
3. **Statistical regularity exists.**
- If you repeat the experiment many times, outcomes will show a **regular pattern**.
- Example: If you toss a coin 1000 times, about 500 times you will get Head, and about 500 times
Tail. (Not exact, but close.)
---
### **Relative Frequency**
- Let **N** = total number of trials (how many times you do the experiment).
- Let **n** = number of times event A happens.
- Then **F(A) = n/N** is the **relative frequency** of event A.
■ As N becomes very large, this relative frequency becomes stable.
This stable value is the **probability** of event A.
---
### **Examples**
#### 1. Tossing a coin
- Outcomes: {Head, Tail}.
- Probability of Head = ½, Probability of Tail = ½.
- If you toss a coin 10 times, maybe Head appears 7 times → Relative frequency = 7/10 = 0.7.
- If you toss 1000 times, Head will appear about 500 times → Relative frequency = 500/1000 = 0.5
(stable value).
#### 2. Rolling a die
- Outcomes: {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
- Probability of getting a 4 = 1/6 ≈ 0.166.
- If you roll 60 times, maybe 4 appears 8 times → Relative frequency = 8/60 ≈ 0.133.
- If you roll 6000 times, 4 will appear about 1000 times → Relative frequency ≈ 1000/6000 = 0.166
(closer to true probability).
#### 3. Drawing a card from a deck
- Total cards = 52.
- Probability of drawing an Ace = 4/52 = 1/13.
- If you repeat the draw experiment many times, the relative frequency of Ace will approach 1/13.
---
■ **Summary**:
- Random experiment = outcome uncertain but predictable in the long run.
- Probability = stable value of relative frequency after many repetitions.
---
Perfect ■ Let’s carefully explain what’s written in your notes, step by step, with **clear examples**.
---
## **1. Frequency Approach of Defining Probability**
- Suppose we repeat an experiment many times.
- Let:
- **N** = total number of trials (how many times you perform the experiment).
- **F(A)** = number of times event A occurs.
- Then, the **relative frequency** of event A =
F(A)/N
■ As **N → very large**, the relative frequency becomes stable. This stable value is called the
**probability of event A**.
P(A) = lim (n → ∞) F(A)/n
---
## **2. Properties**
- 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
- P(A) = 1 → Certain event (always happens).
- P(A) = 0 → Impossible event (can never happen).
---
## **3. Sample Space (Ω)**
- The **sample space** is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.
Example: Tossing a coin twice →
Ω = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
---
## **4. Event**
- An **event** is a subset of the sample space.
From the above example:
- (a) No head = {TT}
- (b) Exactly one head = {HT, TH}
- (c) At least one head = {HH, HT, TH}
---
## **5. Examples**
### Example 1: Tossing a coin once
- Sample space: Ω = {H, T}
- Event A = getting Head = {H}
- P(A) = 1/2
---
### Example 2: Rolling a die
- Sample space: Ω = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
- Event A = getting an even number = {2,4,6}
- P(A) = 3/6 = 1/2
---
### Example 3: Tossing 2 coins
- Sample space: Ω = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
- Event A = at least one head = {HH, HT, TH}
- P(A) = 3/4
---
■ **Summary**:
- Probability = long-run stable value of relative frequency.
- Sample space = all outcomes.
- Events = subsets of sample space.
---
Great ■ This page is again about the **frequency approach of probability** (continuation of what we
saw earlier). Let’s break it down and explain with **simple examples**.
---
## **1. Frequency Approach Recap**
- Let E = a random experiment.
- Let A = an event (subset of outcomes of E).
- Perform the experiment n times.
■ Then:
- F(A) = number of times event A happens.
- Relative frequency of A = F(A)/n
If n (number of trials) is very large,
P(A) = lim (n → ∞) F(A)/n
That limit is the probability of A.
---
## **2. Statistical Regularity**
- As we increase the number of trials, the relative frequency gets closer and closer to a stable
value.
- This stable value = probability.
- This behavior is called statistical regularity.
---
## **3. Notation in the Notes**
- P(A) = lim (n → ∞) F(A)/n = p
- For very large n, this value becomes precise.
- Example condition:
P(|P - P■| < ε) ≥ 95%
Meaning: when you repeat many trials, the observed probability (P■) is within a very small error ε of
the true probability P, with at least 95% confidence.
---
## **4. Examples**
### Example 1: Tossing a Coin
- Experiment: Toss a coin.
- Event A: Getting a head.
- Theoretical probability: P(A) = 1/2 = 0.5.
■ If you toss:
- 10 times → maybe 7 heads → relative frequency = 7/10 = 0.7.
- 100 times → maybe 48 heads → relative frequency = 48/100 = 0.48.
- 1000 times → maybe 503 heads → relative frequency = 503/1000 = 0.503.
As n → very large, relative frequency → 0.5 (stable).
---
### Example 2: Rolling a Die
- Experiment: Roll a fair die.
- Event B: Getting a 6.
- Theoretical probability: P(B) = 1/6 ≈ 0.166.
■ If you roll:
- 60 times → maybe 8 sixes → relative frequency = 8/60 = 0.133.
- 600 times → maybe 95 sixes → relative frequency = 95/600 ≈ 0.158.
- 6000 times → maybe 1005 sixes → relative frequency = 1005/6000 = 0.167.
Again, as n increases, relative frequency stabilizes near 0.166.
---
■ **Summary:**
- Frequency approach = probability is defined as the long-run stable value of relative frequency.
- More trials → more accurate probability.
- Example: Tossing a coin many times or rolling a die many times.
