Some Basic concepts

Experiment- An experiment is an act or process of observation that leads to a

single outcome that cannot be predicted with certainty.
Sample points - A sample point is the basic outcome of an experiment. A Dice is
tossed the basic outcomes are 1,2,3,4,5,6.
They cannot be decomposed into further events.
Sample Space - The sample space of an experiment is the collection of all its
sample points. The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called
the sample space and is represented by S
A coin is tossed S= { H,T}
A dice is tossed S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6}
S = { Even , Odd}
S = {DDD, DDN,DND,NDD,DNN,NDN,NND,NNN}
Event – An event is a collection of sample points which is a subset of the sample
space.
For instance, we may be interested in the event that the outcome when the dice is
tossed is divisible by 2
A = {2,4,6} which is an subset of
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
A= {DDN, DND,NDD,DDD}
Favorable cases– The number of cases favorable to an event in a trial is the
number of outcomes which entail the happening of the event.
Equally likely; outcomes of a trial are said to be equally likely if taking in to
consideration all the relevant evidences there is no reason to expect one in
preference to another.
Complement : The complement of an event A with respect to S is the subset of all
the elements of S that are not in A. We denote the complement of A by the symbol
A’ .
Let A be the event that a red card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards, and let S be the entire : deck.
Then A' is the event that the card selected from the deck is not a red but a black
card.
Compound Event - An event can often be viewed as the composition of two or
more other events. Such events which are called as compound events can be
formed in two ways –
Union – The union of two events A and B denoted by the symbol A U B is the
event containing all the elements that belong to A or B or Both. The union of two
events A and B is the event that occurs if either A or B or both occur on a single
performance of the experiment.
Intersection – The intersection of two events A and B denoted by the symbol A∩B
is the event containing all the elements that are common to A and B. Both A and B
occur
For example, in
the tossing of a dice we might let A be the event that an even number occurs and
B the event that a number greater than 3 shows.
Then the subsets A = {2,4,6}
and B = {4, 5,6} are subsets of the same sample space
S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}.
Note that both. A and B will occur on a given toss if the outcome is an
element of the subset {4,6}, which is just, the intersection of A and B.
Mutually exclusive – Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if A∩B
= Φ. Events are said to be mutually exclusive or incompatible if the happening of
one precludes the happening of all the others ie. if no two or more of them can
happen simultaneously in the same trial.
A = { X:The card drawn is red in color)
B = { X : The card is black in color}
Counting Sample Points –
Multiplication rule - If an operation can be performed in n1 ways and if for each
of these ways a second operation can be performed in n 2 ways then the two
operations can be performed in n1 x n2 ways.
Permutation Frequently we are interested in a sample space that contains
elements as all possible orders or arrangements of a group of objects. A
permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects.
The number of permutations of n distinct objects is n !
The number of permutation of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

Combinations
In many problems we are interested in the number of ways of selecting r objects
from n without regard to order. These selections are called combinations. The
number of combinations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is
 Probability

The probability of a sample point is a number between 0 and 1 that measures the
likelihood that the outcome will occur when the experiment is performed.
Mathematical or Classical or a priori probability –
If a trial results in n exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely cases and m
of them are favorable to the happening of an event E. Then the probability p of
happening of E is given by
𝐹𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑚
P = p(E) = =
𝐸𝑥ℎ𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑛

Some rules
Law of addition of probability
Additive rules : Often it is easier to calculate probability of some events from known
probabilities of other events
If A and B are two events then
P (AUB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
Let
A = the number is even = [ 2,4,6]
B = The number is divisible by 3 = [ 3,6]
P(A) = 3/6 = ½
P(B) = 2/6 = 1/3
P(A ∩ B) = 1/6
P(AUB) = P(A or B or both) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
= ½ + 1/3 – 1/6 = 5/6 -1/6 = 4/6 = 2/3

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P (AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
Let A = the number is odd = [ 1,3,5]
B = The number is divisible by 6 = [6]
P(A) = 3/6 = ½
P(B) = 1/6
P(A ∩ B) = 0
P(AUB) = P(A or B or both)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
= 3/6 + 1/6 + 0 = 4/6 = 2/3
If A and A’ are complementary events then
P(A) +P(A’) = 1
Let B = The number is divisible by 6 = [6]
then B’ = [ 1,2,3,4,5]
P(B) +P(B’) = 1/6 +5/6 = 1
Conditional probability
The probability of an event B occurring when it is known that some event A has
occurred is called a conditional probability and is denoted by P(B/A).
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
P(B/A) = 𝑃(𝐴)

A = the number is even = [ 2,4,6]

B = The number is divisible by 3 = [ 3,6]
P(B/A) = (1/6) / (3/6) = 1/3
Independent Events : Several events are said to be independent if the happening
(or non happening ) of an event is not affected by the supplementary knowledge
concerning the occurrence of any number of remaining events
Two events are independent if and only if
P(B/A) = P(B) or P(A/B) = P(A)

Law of multiplication of probability

If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur then
P(A∩B) = P(A) P(B/A) provided P(A) > 0
Two events A and B are independent if
P(A ∩B) = P(A) . P(B)

Suppose that we are given 20 tulips that are very similar in appearance and told
that 8 tulips will bloom early,12 will bloom late 13 will be red and 7 will be yellow.
Suppose one tulip is drawn randomly
from this, then
Let A = tulip is red Early Late total
B = tulip is early blooming
RED 5 8 13
find the P(B/A)
P(B/A) = P( B∩A) / P(A) Yellow 3 4 7

= (5/20 ) / (13/20) Total 8 12

= 5/13

Limitations
If the various articles are not equally likely.
If the exhaustive number of cases in a trial are infinite.

Statistical or empirical probability

(Von Mises)
If a trial is repeated a number of times under essentially homogenous and identical
conditions, then the limiting value of the ratio of the number of times the event
happen to the number of trials, as the number of the trials become indefinitely large
is called the probability of happening of the event.
Symbolically if in n trials an event happens m times then the probability ‘p’ of the
happening of the event E is given by

Probability rules for sample points

All sample points probabilities must lie between 0 and 1.
The probabilities of all sample points with in a sample space must sum to 1
Steps for calculating Probabilities of Events
Define the experiment; that is describe the process used to make and observation
and the type of observation that will be recorded.
1. List the sample points.
3. Assign probabilities to the sample points.
4. Determine the collection of sample points contained in the event of interest.
5. Sum the sample point probabilities to get the event probability.