LKJSJD
[Link]
排放统计年报
主要看：废气污染物
IB ESS IA Proposal: An Investigation into the Relationship between National Policies and Air
Quality Improvement in Beijing (2013-2018)
1. Research Question
To what extent did the implementation of the national policy, the Air Pollution Prevention and
Control Action Plan ( 《 》 ), contribute to the observed improvement in air quality in Beijing
between 2013 and 2018?
2. Context and Environmental Background
The severe smog events in early 2013, particularly in Beijing, marked a turning point for China's
environmental policy, triggering widespread public concern and leading to the announcement of
the ambitious "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" in September 2013. This five-
year plan (2013-2018) set specific targets for reducing concentrations of PM2.5 and other
pollutants in key regions. Beijing, as the capital, was a primary focus of this campaign. This
investigation aligns perfectly with the ESS curriculum by exploring the interaction between social
systems (policy, economic measures) and environmental systems (air quality, pollutant
dispersion). It serves as a concrete case study to evaluate the effectiveness of a large-scale
societal response to an environmental crisis.
3. Hypothesis
It is hypothesized that the stringent measures implemented under the "Air Pollution Prevention
and Control Action Plan" were the primary driver behind a statistically significant improvement in
Beijing's air quality from 2013 to 2018. This will be most evident in a marked decrease in the
annual average concentrations of directly targeted pollutants, particularly PM2.5 and SO2. The
analysis of emission statistics will further corroborate this by showing a decline in pollutants from
regulated sectors, such as industry and coal combustion.
4. Methodology
4.1 Data Collection
Air Quality Data: Daily historical concentration data for PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, O3, and CO for
Beijing will be sourced from [Link] for the period 2013-2018.
Emission and Policy Data: Official annual emission reports (排放统计年报) from the Beijing Municipal
Ecology and Environment Bureau will be used to obtain data on pollutant emissions from key
sectors (e.g., industrial, vehicular, residential). The measures and outcomes outlined in the "China
Air Quality Improvement Report (2013-2018)" from the MEE will be used to contextualize the
findings.
4.2 Data Processing
The daily air quality data will be aggregated to calculate monthly and annual average
concentrations for each pollutant. This will smooth out short-term meteorological variations and
reveal long-term trends crucial for assessing policy impact.
4.3 Data Analysis
Trend Analysis: Line graphs will be created to visualize the annual average concentration trends
for each pollutant from 2013 to 2018. Similarly, trends in emission data from key sectors will be
graphed.
Statistical Analysis: The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) will be calculated to quantify the
strength and direction of the relationship between time (year) and pollutant concentration. A
strong negative correlation would support the hypothesis of improving air quality over time.
Comparative Analysis: The trends in air quality data will be directly compared to the timeline of
policy implementation and the emission data. A clear improvement following the policy's
enactment will be used to argue for a causal relationship.
5. Expected Challenges and Limitations
Establishing Causality: While correlation can be shown, other factors like favorable
meteorological conditions (e.g., increased wind speed, rainfall) or economic slowdown could
have contributed to the improvement. This limitation will be acknowledged and addressed by
discussing the overwhelming consensus from official reports that policy was the main driver.
Data Reliability: The analysis relies on the accuracy and consistency of data collected and
published by government monitoring stations over the six-year period.
Secondary Pollutants: Ozone (O3) is a secondary pollutant formed by complex reactions. Its trend
may not follow others and could even increase, which would be discussed as a potential
unintended consequence of reducing its precursor pollutants.
