Climate Change
Circulation patterns in the earth’s atmosphere explain the spatial
distribution of climates across Earth’s surface. If any of the factors that
determine the circulation patterns change, climates will also change.
World climate map previously described is based on averages over
periods of a few decades in the mid-twentieth century. The world
climate map has not always looked as it is now – considerable changes
has taken place over time and is likely to continue in the future.
Humans have long been able to modify environments, sometimes
radically, by building settlements, clearing forests for agriculture,
domesticating animals, manufacturing goods, damming rivers, extracting
resources and spreading waste throughout the air, sea and land.
Only recently have we realised that humankind, in addition to modifying
the earth’s surface, has set in motion global-scale climatic changes.
In order to interpret the significance of future climate change, patterns of
past climate changes must be understood. These can give us valuable
clues in determining whether recent changes are similar to those of the
past or whether they are unique because of human actions.
Climate Change over Geologic Time
The last 2 million years in earth’s history is called the
Quarternary Period
Earth has experienced more climatic variability during the past
2 million years than in most of the previous 200 million years.
Climate during the quarternary period has included intervals in
which the global average temperature was as much as 10°C
cooler than the present and warm intervals in which the
climate was as warm or warmer than today.
In the past 1 million years there have been about 10 of these
cold intervals, occurring fairly regularly about once every
100 000 years.
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
The relationship between temperature, carbon dioxide concentrations and sea level over time. Image courtesy of
[Link]
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
Portion of Quartenary period in which glaciations occurred is
called the Pleistocene Epoch (layman's terms – ice ages).
During the “Ice ages” great continental ice sheets extended
over much of North America, northern Europe and northern
Asia. The changes in temperature associated with the
appearance and disappearance of continent sized glaciers are
the most striking and easy-to-measure aspect of these climate
changes, but all aspects of climate, from precipitation to wind
and seasonal weather patterns, were most certainly altered.
Periods of glaciations were also periods of lowered sea level
because water was taken out of the sea and stored on land in
the form of glacial ice. Even areas not covered by ice were
much different in the past than they are today.
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
Earth’s climate shifted between warm and cold between 10
and 30 times during the Pleistocene Epoch. The last cold
period reached its maximum, as indicated by the extent of
glacial ice, only about 18 000 years ago – within the period of
the human archaeological record. At that times temperatures
were about 5°C cooler than at present. The melting of the ice
back to its present extent was completed only about 9 000
years ago (7 000 B.C.). We are now within a period of relatively
warm climate.
Within past 1 000 years, climate has varied. Recent climate
changes have been important in European history (e.g. More
hospitable coastal enviornments and lack of sea ice likely
aided Vikings’ exploration between A.D. 800 & 1 000).
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
Cooling occurred in Middle Ages, beginning about A.D.1200.
The period from 1500 to 1750, when temperatures were
especially coo, is known as the little ice age. Glaciers
advanced in Europe, North America and Asia. Since the early
1800s and especially after 1900, climates have warmed
significantly. Most of the Earth's glaciers have been shrinking
since the early 1800s, including one in 1844-1887 caused by
the eruption of the volcanic island of Krakatau in Indonesia.
The 1930s and 1940s were relatively warm and cooling
occurred 0 from about 1945 – 1970. Global mean
temperatures have risen dramatically since 1975.
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
Map of the world during the last “Ice
Age” . Courtesy of
[Link]
Krakatau Volcano in Indonesia. Courtesy of
Map depicting Viking exploration 8th to 11th century. Courtesy of [Link]
[Link] .org
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
These climatic fluctuations have occurred well within the period of human
occupation of Earth. Glacial melting from most recent Ice Age was
particularly rapid about 15 000 to 10 000 years ago. Archaeologists have
found that agriculture and cities probably developed about 1000 to 8000
years ago.
The period of glacial melting and warming between 15 000 and 5 000 years
ago coincide with the expansion of human settlement in northern Europe
and North America. Settlement extended gradually northward pn the
European mainland and became well established throughout much of hte
British Isles by 2000B.C.
Meltwater from the melting glaciers raised sea-level, flooding low-lying
areas and separating land areas. Water filled the English Channel, isolating
the British Isles from Europe, and the land bridge that once connected
North America and Asia went underwater, thus halting migration from Asia
in to North America. Rising sea level also led to the rapid filling of the
Black Sea about 7 500 years ago
Climate Change over Geologic Time
(cont)
Modern human inventions such as heating, housing,
transportation and industry have made us less dependant
on day-to-day weather conditions. But we remain
strongly influenced by the dynamics of the atmosphere,
both short term (weather) and long term (climate).
It is predicted that as a result of human activities, climate
will change much more rapidly and drastically in the
future.
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation
The question that begs answering is why climate changes
over time. Many potential causes exist, and it is difficult
to say which are important and which can be ignored.
Understanding the causes of climate change is of critical
importance in order to take action and limit the impacts
of the effects. Three of the main possible causes of
climatic change is the astronomical factors, geologic
process and human modification of Earth’s surface and
atmosphere.
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Astronomical Hypotheses: Inputs of solar energy drive atmospheric
circulation and thus climate. Changes in insolation could alter
climate. Humans know little about variations in solar radiation
reaching earth, because it is difficult to observe the Sun through the
filter of the atmosphere. Recent studies (bmo satellite
observations), have suggested that that variations in solar output
could be responsible for some of the climatic variations observed in
the past few hundred years, causing some of the warming of the
20th century, but probably a small portion in comparison to other
factors.
It appears that the 100 000 year timing of major cold and warm
periods over the past 1 to 2 million years corresponds to variations
in Earth-Sun geometry, although the magnitude of temperature
response in the atmosphere appears to be much larger than
expected from relatively subtle variations in insolation, indicating
factors are also at work.
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Variations in Earth-Sun geometry also do not explain shorter-
term climate change.
A short-term astronomical factor that may cause variation in
the Sun’s radiation output is sunspots.
Sunspots are relatively cool regions on the surface of the sun
that vary in number and appear and disappear over a cylce of
11 years. Sunspot numbers also vary over longer periods and
affect the output of solar energy.
Some climatic variations appear to have periods close to the
11- year sunspot cycle. The sunspot cycle also has an effect on
the concentrations of ozone in Earth's upper atmosphere.
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Annual variation of the distance between the earth and the sun may influence climate variation.
Image courtesy of [Link]
The “wobble” and variation of tilt on the axis may also have a influence on the climate. Image
courtesy of [Link]
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Geologic Hypotheses – geological factors may cause short-term and
long-term climatic change. One long-timescale mechanism is plate
tectonics.
This affects ocean shapes and currents, the locations of continents
and oceans directly affect many features of atmospheric circulation,
including the ITCZ, the monsoon circulation of Asia, midlatitude
cyclones, and the stormy zone around Antarctica.
Movements of continental plates have also caused the formation of
major mountain ranges, such as the Himalayas, Andes, and Rocky
Mountains. Continental movements are slow as they cannot explain
variations within the Quarternary period. What they might explain
is why no major glaciations occurred for more than 200 million years
before then.
Volcanic eruptions can influence climate for a few years by injecting
large amounts of dust and gases into the upper atmosphere. These
gases reduce the amount of solar radiation filtering through the
atmosphere to Earth. Past periods of more frequent volcanic
eruptions may have lowered temperatures at other times.
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Human Causes – Human are active participants in the
changing climate. Two important ways through which humans
influence are by altering the the atmosphere and removing
vegetation.
The carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere has increased
dramatically since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the
late 18th century. This causes warming because Carbon
dioxide is a greenhouse gas. Analyses of the air trapped in
Antarctic ice reveal that the concentration of carbon dioxide
was higher during past warm periods and lower during glacial
periods. Elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in the
atmosphere have been identified as the principal casue of
global warming. Other atmospheric pollutants that contribute
to global warming include methane (derived from fossil fuel
operations, cattle, rice cultivation, landfills etc) and
halocarbons (used in refrigeration and other industrial
processes). Some gases (such as sulphur oxides), actually cool
the atmosphere.
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Possible Causes of Climate
Variation (cont)
Altering vegetation cover can affect climate in several ways.
One is by changing land surface cover, with barren surfaces
typically absorbing less solar energy than vegetated surfaces.
This effect is, however, overwhelmed by the fact that
vegetation facilitates cooling by evapotranspiration, so that
vegetated surfaces tend to be cooler as well as effective in
recycling moisture back to the atmosphere.
Vegetation also plays a major role in atmospheric carbon
dioxide, deforestation is a source of carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere, while re-growth of forests can remove it from the
atmosphere.
Interactions between the biosphere and atmospheric carbon
dioxide are complex.
Global Warming
During the 20th century , Earth’s temperature increased
slightly less than 1°C. Throughout the 1990s, the body of
scientific evidence linking this temperature rise to
emissions of carbon dioxide accumulated rapidly, and
today there is little doubt amongst the scientific
community that climate change is occurring and the rise
in carbon dioxide emissions, to blame. The consensus is
that unless output of carbon dioxide slows dramatically,
world average temperature could rise by a few degrees
Celsius or more in the next century.
Global Warming (cont)
Image courtesy of www. [Link]
Evidence of Global Warming
Most of understanding of our global warming based on
computer models. Models used to predict future global
warming are similar to the models that we use to predict the
weather two or three days in the future. What is known of the
present state of the atmosphere and land/ocean surface along
with equations that represent how radiant energy modifies
temperatures, how temperature and pressure affect
precipitation, wind etc is inputted into a computer which then
simulated future atmospheric circulation patterns.
Climate change has occurred naturally for millions of years, so
how can we be sure that the warming we have observed is
caused by humans?
Evidence of Global Warming (cont)
It is possible to “predict” temperatures of the past 100 years
using historic climate data (adding what we know about
historic changes in solar activity and solar eruptions). The
predictions do not match well with the observations,
particularly since 1950, when observed temperatures are
much higher than the predicted ones. However, when we also
add to the model the human impacts on the atmosphere, such
as emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other pollutants,
the models do a very good job of predicting temperatures of
hte past 100 years.
Results demonstrated taht models can predict temperatures
with a reasonable degree of accuracy and that humans are
causing global warming.
Evidence of Global Warming (cont)
Most significant summary of our understanding of global
warming comes from the work of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of scientists
appointed by governments of more than 130 countries
around the world.
Whilst process of summarising and reporting information
at the IPCC is not totally free of political influence, its
reports are generally regarded as credible syntheses of a
complex body of science. The IPCC’s predictions are
striking in the breadth and magnitude of consequences
AND the degree of certainty with which the predictions
are made.
Consequences of Global Warming
Significant result of global warming is a rise in sea level. The
sea level has risen about 17 cm worldwide in the past 100
years, with the rate of sea level rise increasing in the last 20
years. The current rate = 3mm per year. About half this rise
comes from net glacial melt, and the other half comes from
the expansion of water in the oceans as it warms. While the
current sea level rise is itself significant for those living in
coastal zones, the great concern is the dramtic sea level rise
that will occur as a result of the melting of major ice caps in
Greenland and Antarctica. This could results in a rise in sea
level of 1 -5 m over the next century or so.
Danger to coastal residents wouldn’t be from constant
inundation because sea level would rise very gradually over
years, allowing people time to relocate, raise structures or
build dikes. The danger lies in occasional severe storms that
would cause flooding farther inland, such as what happened
with Hurricane Katrina.
Evidence of Global Warming (cont)
Another possibility is that Climate Change could reduce
water supply in some regions. Semi-arid and densely
populated regions are particularly vulnerable in this
regard as they depend on river flow to meet their water
needs. Warming could lead to an increase in
precipitation in other areas and with warmer
temperatures,
Image of and damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 Image of and damage caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005
Tipping points and uncertainties
Aspects of expected global warming are highly uncertain.
Three types of major uncertainty exist: (1) limited
understanding of the climate system and our ability to model it
accurately; (20 unforeseen and possibly rapid changes in
conditions that affect climate (tipping points/thresholds) and
(3) unknown future conditions of factors controlling climate,
such as the rate of carbon dioxide emissions.
Accuracy of computer models to predict future climate has
limits. Whilst models are getting better, there are still
important limits e.g. Whilst current models predict
temperature changes accurately, they are noit as consistent for
predicting precipitation mainly due to the importance of
storms and storm tracks.
Tipping points and uncertainties (cont)
Models also suffer from an incomplete understanding of some important
atmospheric processes. An example of this is the possible impacts of an
increase in water vapour concentrations – will it lead to an increase in
cloud cover that reflects incoming energy or will it trap more outgoing
radiation and thus increase warming? There is still much to learn about
the atmospheric processes.
In recent years, concern has grown that with ongoing climate change,
certain parts of the Earth-atmosphere system may be reaching tipping
points, or conditions in which the pace of change may increase rapidly and
irreversibly. One of these is the decrease in Arctic sea ice. As sea ice
decreases, there is a tendency for the ocean to absorb more solar radiation
because ice reflects more energy than open water. This could cause the
Arctic Ocean to become ice free for a much longer period each year. On
the other hand, open water loses heat more rapidly through evaporation
than does ice-covered water, sp this may not be as great a problem as
some have argued.
Tipping points and uncertainties
(cont)
Another possible tipping point related to accelerated melting
of ice caps, such as Greenland ice cap and portions of
Antarctica. Such melting could destabilise the ice so that it
would flow rapidly into the sea, causing substantial increase in
sea level in a short period.
Whilst we are certain that such mechanisms of instability exist,
most of the ones being considered are not well understood
and its impossible to know whether the rapid changes
envisioned are likely or not or whether they will occur soon or
far in the future.
Greatest uncertainty regarding global warming may well be
the rate of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations. The IPCC has developed set of scenarios that
describe possible future levels of economic activity and
reliance on fossils fuels. Incidentally, South Africa has the 9th
highest carbon emissions per capita in the world – mostly due
to our reliance on coal for electricity provision.
Tipping points and uncertainties
Global temperature changes predicted by models and observed. Image courtesy of [Link]
Dealing with Global Warming
Three basic approaches to manage global warming and
ensuing impacts:
Develop means to adapt to climate change
Reduce carbon emission in and attempt to slow it and/or
Actively take measures to counteract the effects of our carbon
emissions
There are many obstacles to adjusting to climate change i.e the
United States refused to join the Kyoto Protocol, an
international treaty that would limit carbon dioxide emissions
because they argued that a strategy of adapting to global
warming would be less costly and more effective than
attempting to reduce it. Adapting to global warming could
include measures such as building seawalls to protect low-lying
coastal areas or relocating communities in these zones, or
supplying people with air conditioning
Dealing with Global Warming
(cont)
Reducing carbon dioxide concentrations will be difficult because of
our dependence on fossil fuels and energy production is a billion-
rand industry across the world. The significant reduction of fossil-
fuel use is possible only if we consume less energy or shift to
alternative energy sources. There are other reasons to reduce fossil
fule use, such as to reduce urban air pollution and the price of oil.
Measures to reduce fossil fuel use are promoted on these grounds a
well as on their effects on carbon emissions.
The world faces the challenge of rapid growth in electricity demand
and a limited range of options for large-scale electric production. An
alternative to reducing fossil-fuel use is to try to trap and store
(sequester) carbon dioxide. Several alternatives are being discussed,
from storing carbon dioxide in the deep ocean or underground to
increasing photosynthesis by fertilising plants in the ocean. Any of
these alternatives would be expensive, and there are concerns
about whether the carbon dioxide would leak back into the
atmosphere.
Dealing with Global Warming
(cont)
Alternative, renewable sources
of energy
Solar energy harnesses the power of
the sun
Wind farms use wind to generate energy
Want to know more?
Here are some interesting websites to go look at to find
about more about climate change and variability:
IPCC webpage - [Link]/
World wildlife fund (WWF) - [Link]/climate
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) -
[Link]
Acknowledgements
All information referred to has been sourced from the
following publication/s:
Dahlman C.T, Renwick W.H, & Bergman E.F. Introduction to
Geography – people, places and environment; 5th Edition
(2011) Prentice Hall
