Lawry, J. (2000).

An Alternative Interpretation of Linguistic Variables

and Computing with Words. In IPMU 2000

Early version, also known as pre-print

Link to publication record on the Bristol Research Portal

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Fi = x ∈ Ω χ f ( x ) ≥ yi { } i = 1, {Fi }in=1
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  >

û ü û ü û ü û ü û ü û û û û

∑ ( Fj − Fj +1 )p j
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4 ,  4 ¼ –  Ç œ š š — * ¼ – Ç › £ ¤ ¢ Ç —   > ¼ – š œ È › — . "  - !  1 3 
ˆ  v o v p v r o ° m l Ž © v o † t v ƒ p v u ‚ q v ‚ ¬ ¹ ˆ 
Œ ¸

L , T ( L), Ω , M
%

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1
1 > ,   . ( 4 1  0 . ( w w # 4 ,  4   !  " > 4   > , 4 3 " 1 B , 6  8 ( , 4

T ( L)
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L !  4 . 1 " 4  ) "  )  4 , > B # 7  8 > ! 1  1  z ~ |

%

2  " ,

% %
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Ω
6  8 ( , 4 — * 1 4  (  1 6 , " 4 ,  . > 1 4 3  ( " 4 ,   > ¼ 1 4 

> , . 1  , > B # »

%
4 , -    1 3 " ( 8 ,

ˆ  v o v p v r o ° m ° Ž © v o † t v ƒ p v u ˆ ƒ u q v Å p v r o r  ‚ ‚ ¹ t ˆ 
Œ Œ ¸

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x ∈Ω
,    ,    , 8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 > , 4 3 " 1 )  1    .

x
Ω
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1 4   , . ( w w #

T ( L)
% &
,  3  !  " > 1      , " !  " > 4   , . ( w w # 4 , 

T ( L)
4 ( B 4 ,   .

¼ ½ ¾ ¿ 3   B , 6 1 , ! , >  4 ,  3  > 1  0   , - ,   1  0  . ¾

4      .  "

x ∈Ω
  , - , - B , " 4  1 ) 6  8 ( ,

χ M(w) ( x)
des L ( x ) = ∑ w / χ M(w) ( x)
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w ∈T ( L )
&
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%
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6   1  0 -  > , 8 – 4 , , z ~ | * z : |   > z  | —  3 "  4 4 

Ω
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T ( L)
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ˆ  v o v p v r o ° m  Ž © v o † t v ƒ p v u ˆ ƒ u q v Å p v r o r  ‚  t   ‹
Œ Œ

χ M(w) ( x)
<  , - , - B , " 4  1 ) 6  8 ( , 1 4   ,    C ,    B ,


ˆ p 

f ⊆f Ω
,    ,    , 8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 > , 4 3 " 1 )  1    .

  , ) "  )  "  1    . 6   , " 4 !   1  3 8 ( > , ¾ 1    , 1 " 4 ,   . ®

f
%
8  B , 8 4

" , 8   1 6 ,     , 8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 6  " 1  B 8 ,
1 4  . ( w w # 4 ( B 4 , 

T ( L) des L ( f )
 . * 4   1 4 . # 1  0

m f ( Fi )
‚ ‡ Å ¹ ˆ ° m €
à Ä

∀w ∈ T ( L) lpdes ( f ) ( w ) = ∑ ∑ lpdes ( x ) (w)

µ
  4 1 > , "   , 4 ,   . !  " > 4 Æ  Ç œ š š ½  ¿ * Ç › £ ¤ ¢ Ç ½ Ç ¿ *

š œ È › ½ š ¿ É  4 8  B , 8 4  .  8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 6  " 1  B 8 , Ê Ë Ì Í
L
Fi
Fi x ∈Fi
L

1
lpdes L ( x ) ( w )
if Ω is finite and ∫ ∫f y λ fy ( )
dx dy in the
1
0
Î Ï Ð Ñ Ò Ó Ô Õ Ö × Ø Ù Ú Û Ü Û Ï Õ Ý Ý Þ Ö × ß Û Ï × Ö Õ Ý Û Ï Ü à Û á â Û ã ä Õ Ú Û Õ å Ý × Õ á Õ æ à Û Ï â à ç Ý × å Þ

continuous case.
Û Ï ã Ý à Ö Û Ï Ü Õ á Þ Ï â Õ ã â Û ã Ú à Ý × Õ ã ã Ù Ú Ö Û Ï Ü â Ù è Ø Û ã Ø Ï × è â × Ú é á ê Û ë × ë Ý Û Ï Ü à Û á â Û ã

ä Õ Ý à × á ì ã Ù à Ý Ö å × ß Ù Ú é × Ö å Þ Õ ç ç Ý Þ Û Ï Ü Ø × Ö Ü × á â Ù × í Û á â Û Ï Ü è Ù Ú Ö á ë î Ø Û á ï

Ø Ù è × ä × Ú ï Õ Ý Ý Ù è á ß Ù Ú â Ø × â × Ú é á × â â Ù å × Û Ï ß Û Ï Û â × ë
 des L ( f ) Lα = Qi , Lβ = Q j , Lγ = Qk
'

1 6 ,    , 4 , 3   4  "  1   4 3   B , > ,  , " - 1  , >

Lθ is des
 3 3  " > 1  0     ,  "   4 .  " -   1   > , 4 3 " 1 B , > 1    ,  " , -

% %
~  <  , 1   ( 1  1   (  > , " 8 # 1  0   1 4 > , . 1  1  1   1 4  4

ý  !  3 3  " > 1  0     ,   ,  " , -  .     8 ) "  B  B 1 8 1  #

α Pr ( Z X ) = Pr ( Z X , Y ) Pr (Y X ) + Pr ( Z X , ¬Y ) Pr ( ¬Y X )
%

.  8 8  ! 4 ­  " ,  3  .  3  8 4 ,  –  " x 3 (  1    ,

Fi fy
θ = βα + γ (1 − α )
3    1  (  ( 4 3  4 , — ! ,  6 , "  0 ,   , ) "  B  B 1 8 1  #  . ¾

%
9  ! ,   6 ,     ý   1 3 ,     1 .

Pr ( Z X , Y ) = Pr ( Z Y ) Pr ( Z X , ¬Y )
%

B , 1  0 4 , 8 , 3  , >   8  B , 8 6  8 ( , 4 1  <  1 4 1 4   , 

Fi   > 1 4 (  C   ! 

 6 , "  0 , >  3 "  4 4   , .  3  8 4 ,  4   0 1 6 ,   ,  6 , "  8 8

  ,    , 3 8  4 4 1 3  8 .  " -  .   , 4 3  , -  1 4 " ,   1  , >

&

) "  B  B 1 8 1  #  . ¾   0 ,  , "  8 ! ,   C ,   , , y ) " , 4 4 1  

/ 4 4 ,   1  8 8 # * 1    1 4 3  4 , * ! ,  " ,  4 4 ( - 1  0     Ì 1 4

8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 > , 4 3 " 1 )  1     - ,    . ( w w # 4 ( B 4 ,   .   ,

¥ § ¨ £ ¤ ž ¤ § ¨ œ š š  ¤ ¨ £ › Ÿ › ¨ £ › ¨ ž z ; ò |  . ˜ 0 1 6 ,   <  1 4

 , " - 4 ,   .  8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 6  " 1  B 8 ,

 4 4 ( - )  1   1 4 8 1 C , 8 #   B , -  4  ( 4  1 . 1  B 8 , !  ,    ,

)  ) ( 8   1   4 4 1 w , 4  .  B , 3  4 4   1 4 . # 1  0 ˜   >   " ,


  ˆ ‚ ƒ r o v o †  v p Š © v o † t v ƒ p v u ‹ ¹ ¹ r † v ƒ ‡ ƒ

4 1 - 1 8  "

9 # 8 8  0 1 4 - 4  " ,  ! , 8 8 C   !  3 8  4 4 1 3  8 1  . , " ,  3 ,

4 3  , -   .   , .  " -

ý  ! 0 1 6 ,    ,  B  6 , 3   4  "  1   4 )  4  , " 1  "

All X are Y
α,β γ
%

> 1 4  " 1 B (  1   4  .   > 3   B , > ,  , " - 1  , > ­  "

All Y are Z Q ∈ TPr

  , )  4  , " 1  " > ,  4 1  # 0 1 6 ,   1 4 * . "  - 7  # , 4

All X are Z   ,  " , -

[ ]
%

p(α Q) = Pr (Q α ) p(α ) Pr (Q)

!  , " , ˜ *   > Ì  " , ) "  ) , "  1 , 4 <  1 4 4 3  , -  !  4

, y  ,  > , > 1  z ;  |   > z |    8 8  !   , ( 4 ,  .

               ! "      #   ! $ % ! #      %

8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 } (    1 . 1 , " 4 4 ( 3   4 Ç §  ž ™ › ¾   >  › › œ š

Pr (Q α )
 %    !  &  !  !   % ' !     ! &   '  '  $   (    

, " , ! ,  >  )   > 1 . . , " ,    ) ) "   3    º  > ,    >

1   , " ) " ,  8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 } (    1 . 1 , " 4  4 !  " > 4 > , 4 3 " 1 B 1  0      # $ ( % ! $ !   !  "   !    $ $ &   )  ! $  ' ! $   ! 

α.
) "  B  B 1 8 1  # 6  8 ( , 4 > ,  , " - 1  , >  3 3  " > 1  0   -  4 4

&  ! % !   !     "  $ * !   # % !      ,  !  !   $ $

lpdes L (α ) (Q)
%
 4 4 1 0  - ,     ,  " # z  | 2  " , 4 ) , 3 1 . 1 3  8 8 # * 8 ,    , 4 , 

     %  %   " !  ' ( !   ! /  % % * #   

- .

 . !  " > 4 > , 4 3 " 1 B 1  0 ) "  B  B 1 8 1  # 6  8 ( , 4 B ,

TPr = {Q1 , , Qn }
   / 0 1 2 3 4 2 3 5  $ $ &   '  '  $   ( "  $ * ! %   ! ! 6 *  $ $ ( $  ) ! $ (

! 1   3  " " , 4 )   > 1  0 4 , -    1 3

p(α )
7

 !  %  ! *   8   #   %    ' *     9  !   !  " !

α
- -

. (  3  1   <  ,  .  "   # 6  " 1  B 8 , " , ) " , 4 ,   1  0

M Pr
p(α Q) = lpdes L (α ) (Q)
1


3



,

 >
6

1



8

1
(


,

 


8
. 

,


6
,

,
)


"


 B

>


,
B

.
1

1
8


1 

,
# 


.


4

,
 -

8 1
,

 0
4 )

(
,

1 4
3


1

1
.

3
1 3 ,

6
6


,

" 1





B


8 ,
"

*   !  #
α
  ! / %    !  ! #  (  %
∫0 lpdes % * # !
Lα

( α ) (Q) dα
   ! "     ' $ ! %

Lα , TPr , [0 , 1], M Pr
+

α α,β γ
% $
> , 4 3 " 1 B 1  0  4 4 1 4    , > 1 

     !    ! & !   !     8  $ $   %     !

θ
! : & !   !  "  $ * !  8  %   " !  ' (
;

z  |   > z { |   , .  3      ) "  B  B 1 8 1  1 , 4  " ,     " (  

E(θ) = E(β) E(α ) + E( γ )(1 − E(α ))

. (  3  1    8 - ,   4      4 3  , -  .  " 4 # 8 8  0 1 4 - 4 ! 1  

E(α ) = ∫ α p(α Qi ) dα E(β) = ∫0 β p(β Qj )

8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 } (    1 . 1 , " 4 3      B ,  "   4 8   , > > 1 " , 3  8 #

 !  !
1 /
1
%
. "  -   , 3 8  4 4 1 3  8 4 3  , -  ­  " 1  4    3 , * ) "  B  B 1 8 1  #

E( γ ) = ∫0 γ p(γ Qk ) dγ
  ,  " # >  , 4     8 8  ! ( 4   -  C ,   # 1  . , " ,  3 ,

  
1 !   ! /  !   ) !  %  * 

- .

" , 0  " > 1  0   , 4   , 4 1 w ,  . 9 ! , > , 4 . "  -   , .  3  4

θ θ = E(β) E(α ) + E( γ )(1 − E(α ))

! %   #   ! 8   / <   #

 

Ç §  ž 9 ! , > , 4  " , ž œ š š    > Ç §  ž ž œ š š ) ,  ) 8 ,   6 ,

  %  !     !  !  #   !  $    *  %     ! %    &     %    

% &
š œ È › 4   , 4 1 w , 4   6 1 , !  .   1 4 ! , > , . 1  , 

des = des Lθ θ ( ( ))
8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 4 # 8 8  0 1 4 - 4 3  , -   8   0 4 1 - 1 8  " 8 1  , 4   z  |

 4 .  8 8  ! 4 »

(Qi ) X are Y , > ? @ A B C D E F G

(Q ) ( X and Y ) are Z , (Q ) ( X and ¬Y ) are Z

H

  %   !   ! 8  $ $      $    *  %    % ( $ $    % #

j k -

(des) X are Z
most X are Y
Qi , Q j , Qk ∈ TPr des ⊆ f TPr
%

!  , " ,   > <  1 4 3   B ,

 "   4 8   , > 1    8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3 6  " 1  B 8 , .  " - 1    ,

most ( X and Y ) are Z , several ( X and ¬Y ) are Z

α = Pr (Y X ) β = Pr ( Z X , Y )
.  8 8  ! 1  0 -    , "
%
,  * *

des X are Z

γ = Pr ( Z X , ¬Y ) θ = Pr ( Z X ) TPr = { few , several , most}

  >   ,    , 8 1  0 ( 1 4  1 3

 !  !     % % *    

M Pr
M Pr ( few) = [0 : 1 0.25 : 1 0.5 : 0] M Pr (several )
4 # 8 8  0 1 4 - 4 3  , -  1 4 , } ( 1 6  8 ,    

= [0 : 0 0.25 : 1 0.75 : 1 1 : 0] M Pr ( most ) =

  

[0.5 : 0 0.75 : 1 1 : 1]
I
-
 !     ! % &       $    *  %    "     ' $ !    !  &  !      

 %  !    " !  ' (

   ! %  ) !  8 %  # & $     (  ! %  $ $   ) !   ' !

+ TPr
 ! 8   !      %   ( 8    $ $ % * ' % ! 6 * !   ! :  # & $ ! %

-
Lα is des1 , Lβ is des2 , Lγ is des3
  

Lθ is des
lpdes(α ) ( most ) = 2α − 1 for 0.5 ≤ α ≤ 1     % 8   %        $    *  %    % ( $ $    % # %  ! % !

= 0 otherwise α,β
   %       %  !  !  #   ! &  %  !       %    ' *     %  

γ
   !   !       %   % ! /   ! " !  /  !   !              

- ^

1 $    *  %     ! %    &     %    !         % p !  ! 8   !

p(α most ) = lpdes L (α ) ( most ) ∫ lpdes L (α ) ( most ) dα

( ) ( )
-

α α p(α des) = ∑ p α D j mdes D j

0
= 8α − 4 for 0.5 ≤ α ≤ 1 Dj

= 0 otherwise {D }
 !  !   !  ! 8    $ % !  %  8     !  !

j j mdes
8   # t  ( ! %  !   ! #

  #   %  !  '       

( ) ∑ lpdes ( α ) (Q ) ∫ Q∑ ( α ) (Q) dα
+

p α Dj =
E(α ) = E(β) =
1
∫0.5 (8x − 4)x dx = 0.833333 Lα
lpdes Lα
Q ∈D j ∈D
0 j

α,β γ
u : & !   !  "  $ * ! % 8         ' !  !  !  #   ! 

E( γ ) = 0.5
J
 #  $   $ ( /  ! 8       !  ! 8   ! /

8   #  ! &  %  !       %    ' *     %      ! %   #   ! 8  

- K

θ = 0.77777 des = des Lˆ (0.77777) θ

L

  

 !  !  #   !   % ' ! 8   !

M N O P O Q R S T U V W W W X

θ
   !      % / 8   #  "      #   ! $

Y Z [

N \ T ]

- ^

> ? @ A B C D E F v

& !  % & !    " ! /    *   _ ` a  8 "   !  % ' ! $  ! " !    !   ! 

  %   !   ! 8  $ $       !  !   $ $    *  %    % ( $ $    % #

2 0 e   f 4   ! % *    ' $ !  % $  ' ! $ % 8    !

b c d c b g

&   '  '  $   (  8 h   " !  i       *   j j a    )   

  $ ( f 4

b g
 %  & &   &     !

(most / 1 + several / 0.8) X are Y

( few / 0.2 + several / 1) ( X and Y ) are Z
-

( few / 1 + several / 0.5) ( X and ¬Y ) are Z

  %  $ %  &  % %  ' $ !     !  !  % *   !       (  !       

Pr (Y X ) Pr ( Z X , Y ) Pr ( Z X , ¬Y )
^

 ! $  ' ! $ % 8   /   

(des) X are Z
-

    %     ! /    %   !   !    *   $ $    *   !

   %       %  !          * # ' !   8 '    ! %  8 

mmost / 1+ several / 0.8 = {most , several} : 0.8

  

 !       ( & !  8   # &   !   &    *  !  ' (     !  &   

, {most} : 0.2
%    

8      (

c d c
2 0 e   6 *   ! &  % %  ' $ ( f 4

b g
 8  !   # &   !   %

p(α most / 1 + several / 0.8) = p(α {most , several})0.8

+ p(α most )0.2
 !  ) !   !  ! 8  * $  (

p(α {most , several}) =

l  $   *    %  # !   % ! % 2 0 e  8  !

c m b c d c

 !  !

  # &   !   %  !  !  !  ) ! 

lpdes L ( most ) + lpdes L (several )

n

* !  ( o p    %  !  " !   $ $ &   &        8   # &   !   %

1
α α
=
     ! 8  * $  ( q

∫ lpdes Lα
(most ) + lpdes Lα (several ) dα
0
0.5
1 − lpdes L (α ) ( few) 1 − ∫ lpdes ( α ) ( few )
    !    #   ! $ % *  %   *      %  !       *  !  !

α Lα
       8   !  !   $ $    *  %    % ( $ $    % #       !   % ! 

' (  ! 8  $ $      %  ! # 
0
 !  !

lpdes L (α ) ( few) = 1 − 2α for 0 ≤ α ≤ 0.5

(des1 ) X are Y α

= 0 otherwise
(des2 )( X and Y ) are Z , (des3 )( X and ¬Y ) are Z   

(des) X are Z 1
p(α most ) = lpdes L ( most ) ∫ lpdes (most ) dα
α La
 !  !   

s
  ! $    *  %   

0
des
r

des1 , des2 , des3  !  !

 ! %    &     %  " ! 

TPr -
 lpdes L (α ) ( most ) = 2α − 1 for 0.5 ≤ α ≤ 1
™ !    % % !   8    %       % ' !  !    !  ' ( š   

( )
-

α
p α i desi
          $   %    ' *     %    ' !

= 0 otherwise
p(α most /1 + several ) =
 !  !  #   !   % ' ! 8   !     % % * #       ! & !   !   ! * &

!   ! /

n
0.8 α = 2.13333α for 0 ≤ α ≤ 0.5 ∑ αi = 1
8    !    %        ›     &  %  !    

3  i =1
α1 , ,αm ∀α ∈ V ( m)
0.8  + 0.3(8α − 4) = 1.6α + 0.266667 otherwise
  %    ' *        %   " !  ' ( 

4 œ

 3 m m
p(α K ) = ∏ ( p α i desi ) ∫ ∏ p(α i desi ) dV (m)
ž

 #  $   $ (  ! 8      
i =1 i =1 V (m)

 
m
p(β | few / 0.2 + several / 1) V ( m) = α ∈[0 , 1]
m
∑ α i = 1
Ÿ

 !  !

î
-

= 3.2β + 0.266667 for 0 ≤ β ≤ 0.5 i =1 

  #   % ›       %    ' *     &  %  !     #       $

= −3.73333β + 3.73333 otherwise

+

α1 , ,αm
  %    ' *     %    ' !  !  !  #   !  8   % * 

  

p( γ few / 1 + several / 0.5)

  

= 2.66667 − 4 γ for 0 ≤ γ ≤ 0.5

pi (α K ) = ∫ p(α K ) dV (m)
{α ∈V ( m ) α i = α}
¡

= −1.33333γ + 1.33333 otherwise .

!   ! /  !     '      ! ! %   #   !

1
α i = α pi (α K ) dα ∫
£

  #  ! % !   %    ' *     %  !  '       

E(β) = 0.477778 E( γ ) =
+

E(α ) = 0.655556
/   

0
wi : α i
θ = E(α ) E(β) + (1 − E(α )) E( γ )
¤

  " !       ! &   '  '  $   (   %    ' *     8  

%     x

0.277778
¥

i = 1,
     8 * § § ( % !              !   ! # ¨ ,

,m
= 0.655556(0.477778) + (1 − 0.655556)0.277778
¦

 !      8 !   $    *  %     ! %    &      8 “ ©

= 0.40889 des = des Lθ (0.40889) =

  


$  !      " ! $ ( /   * # !     $ ! %   #   !  8  ! "  $ * !  8 “

few / 0.364 + several / 1 m

X = ∑ E( X wi ) α i
   ' !  !  !  #   !  ' ( ª  !  !

y ! $    *  %    % ( $ $    % # %  ! #    $ ( &   "   ! % 

i =1
E( X wi ) = ∫ X p( X wi ) dX
    !  !

#   ! $ 8       !   ! %      !  8   #  8   # & *       

Ω
    %   ! 8  $ $      % !      %  ! %  $ $    ! # &   

p( X wi ) = lpdes L ( X ) ( wi ) ∫ lpdes ( ) dX
- z

( X ) wi
&   "   ! #   !  !  !   $ #   ! $ %  8  !  %        

X LX
Ω
$    *  %    "     ' $ ! % y ! 8   # !    )   $ $ ' ! '  % !   

  !  %   ) !  8   #  !   $ &      # #    $    *   !

« ¬ Ž † ­ ® ‚ ~  ¯

{ | }

° ± ² ³ ´ µ ¶ · ¸ ¹ ¶ º ± » » ± ¼ ´ ² ½ ³ ¸ ¾ ¸ ¶ ¿ ¶ ² ¸ ¼ ´ ¸ ¹ ¾ ³ ³ ± À ´ ¾ ¸ ¶ µ

¶ · Ã ¾ µ ¾ Ä ¸ ¶ µ º · ± ¿ ¾ ² ¶ Å ¾ ¿ Ä » ¶ ½ ´ Æ ¶ ² Ç Ã È ¾ » µ ¼ ´ ²

Á Â

~  €  ‚ ƒ ‚ € „ ‚  ƒ † ‡ ˆ € ‰ Š ˆ ‹ Œ ˆ „  Ž „ Œ ‹ 

{ É } Ê

$    *  %    8      $ $ ' !     %            8 

$    *  %    "     ' $ ! 6 *  $  8  !  ' (  $    *  %   

¹ ¶ ¶ Å ¾ ¿ ´ ² ¾ ¸ ´ ± ² ¿ ¾ · Ì ³ ± º ¾ ½ ± ± µ Ä · ± Í ¶ À ¸ ³ ¸ µ ¶ ² ¸

 ! %    &            %  6 *     8  !    ! % & !   8    $ $ ( /

- ‘

¼ ´ » » Ç ¶ Î Ï Ð Î Ñ Ñ Î Ò Ó ´ ² Ô Õ Ö Ó ³ Ç Í ¶ À ¸ ³ × Õ Õ Ø ´ ² Ö Î Ù Î Ú Û Ñ

Ω
Â

$ !  ' !  "     ' $ !    *   " !  % !     % 

X LX
T ( LX ) =
³ Ç Í ¶ À ¸ ³ ¾ ² µ Ü Õ Õ Ú ´ ² ± ² » Ã ¾ Ý Î Þ ³ Ç Í ¶ À ¸ ³ ß

 Â

$    *  %    "     ' $ !  ! %    '    % *    

X
{w1 , , wm }
 !   $    *  %    8     ! %    '    “  %

¹ ¾ ¸ ´ ³ ¸ ¹ ¶ ¾ Æ ¶ · ¾ ½ ¶ ¶ Å ¾ ¿ ¿ ¾ · Ì ± º ¾ ½ ± ± µ Ä · ± Í ¶ À ¸

 ! 8   #

³ ¸ µ ¶ ² ¸ á

(( LX = wi )) : (desi )
”

desi ⊆ f TPr
¶ ¸ ã ä å æ Ç ¶ ¸ ¹ ¶ Ä ¶ · À ¶ ² ¸ ¾ ½ ¶ ¿ ¾ · Ì ± º ¾ ½ ± ± µ Ä · ± Í ¶ À ¸

 !  !      " !   )    $ !   ! '  % !  8

Ω = [0 , 100]
-

(( LX = wi )) : (desi ) for i = 1,
³ ¸ µ ¶ ² ¸ ³ ± ¸ ¹ ¾ ¸ ¾ ² µ » ¶ ¸ Ç ¶ ¸ ¹ ¶

LMARK
Â

% *     %       %

,m » ´ ² ½ ´ ³ ¸ ´ À Æ ¾ · ´ ¾ Ç » ¶ µ ¶ ³ À · ´ Ç ´ ² ½ ã ä å æ ¼ ´ ¸ ¹

α i = Pr ( LX = wi )
Â

T ( LMARK ) =
   $ !       !    ! : &  ! % %   %  

Ü Õ Õ Ú è Ô Î Ø é Õ Ð Ú Î ê × Õ Õ Ø ê Î Ï Ð Î Ñ Ñ Î Ò Ó ë ß ¹ ¶

 !  # %  8    %       %   $    *  %    "     ' $ ! %  %

¾ ³ ³ ± À ´ ¾ ¸ ¶ µ ³ ¶ ¿ ¾ ² ¸ ´ À º ² À ¸ ´ ± ² ´ ³ µ ¶ º ´ ² ¶ µ Ç Ã

M MARK ( poor ) = [0 : 1 45 : 1 50 : 0]
8  $ $   % —

M MARK ( mediocre)
è

m ì

Lα i is desi for i = 1, ∑ αi = 1 = [ 40 : 0 45 : 1 55 : 1 60 : 0] M MARK ( good ) =

  

,m
i =1
 [50 : 0 55 : 1 65 : 1 70 : 0] M MARK (excellent ) = p3 (α K ) = −384α 5 − 384α 2 + 576α 3 + 72α
¾ ² µ

[60 : 0 65 : 1 100 : 1]
ß ¹ ¶ Ä · ± Ç » ¶ ¿ À ¾ ² Ç ¶ ¶ Å Ä · ¶ ³ ³ ¶ µ

for 0 ≤ α ≤ 0.5
Ë

Ç Ã ¸ ¹ ¶ º ± » » ± ¼ ´ ² ½ » ´ ² ½ ´ ³ ¸ ´ À º ¾ À ¸ ³ Ê

= 0 otherwise
Â

p4 ( α K ) =
î î ï ð ñ ò ó ô õ ö ö ÷ ø ø ù î ú û ü ø

ð ñ ò ó
î î ï ô ý û þ ÿ ö ÷ û ø ø ù î ú û ü
   û  û ÷      ý ö    ø

−384α 5 − 768α 2 + 960α 4 − 384α 3 + 768α − 192

ð ñ ò ó
î î ï ô ö ö þ ø ø ù î  û  û ÷   ø

ð ñ ò ó
î î ï ô û û   û ø ø ù î ý ö  ø

for 0.5 ≤ α ≤ 1
= 0 otherwise
α1 = Pr ( poor ) α 2 = Pr ( mediocre)
¶ ¸ è è
â

α 3 = Pr ( good ) α 4 = Pr (excellent )
¾ ² µ ¸ ¹ ¶ ² ¼ ¶ ¹ ¾ Æ ¶

¾ Ì ´ ² ½ ¸ ¹ ¶ ¶ Å Ä ¶ À ¸ ¶ µ Æ ¾ » ¶ ³ ± º ¸ ¹ ¶ ³ ¶ µ ´ ³ ¸ · ´ Ç ¸ ´ ± ²
Ë

 Â

α1 = 0.0714286 α 2 = 0.0857143
¸ ¹ ¶ º ± » » ± ¼ ´ ² ½ À ± ² ³ ¸ · ¾ ´ ² ¸ ³ µ ¶ ² ± ¸ ¶ µ Ç Ã æ Ê

½ ´ Æ ¶ ³ ³   è  è

Lα 1 = few , Lα 2 is few / 1 + several / 1 + most / 1

α 3 = 0.171429 α 4 = 0.671429

¾ ² µ  ß ° ± ² Æ ¶ · ¸ ´ ² ½ ¸ ¹ ¶

Lα 3 = several , Lα 4 = most
· ¶ ³ » ¸ ´ ² ½ µ ´ ³ ¸ · ´ Ç ¸ ´ ± ² ´ ² ¸ ± ¾ º Ã ³ ¶ ¸ Ã ´ ¶ » µ ³ ¸ ¹ ¶

    

α1 + α 2 + α 3 + α 4 = 1
º ± » » ± ¼ ´ ² ½ » ´ ² ½ ´ ³ ¸ ´ À µ ¶ ³ À · ´ Ä ¸ ´ ± ² ± º ¸ ¹ ¶ ¾ Æ ¶ · ¾ ½ ¶ ¿ ¾ · Ì

¾ ² µ

± º ¾ ½ ± ± µ Ä · ± Í ¶ À ¸ ³ ¸ µ ¶ ² ¸ ß

´ Æ ¶ ² ¸ ¹ ´ ³ Ì ² ± ¼ » ¶ µ ½ ¶ ¼ ¶ ± Ç ¸ ¾ ´ ² ¾ Í ± ´ ² ¸ Ä ± ³ ¸ ¶ · ´ ± ·

µ ´ ³ ¸ · ´ Ç

Â
¸ ´ ± ² ß

excellent / 1 + good / 0.5 + mediocre / 0.329 + poor / 0.286

∀ α1 , 

, α 4 ∈ V ( 4 ) p α1 , α 2 , α 3 , α 4 K = ( )       ! " #  $ %  $  " & ! '  " ! ( ) #    & *  + &

)( )( ) (
p α1 few p α 3 several p α 4 most , -
. ! 

,
. (

,
!  "  # .  ( "

,
" .   $ ( " &

,
! " / 

,
" .  & . 

∫ p(α1 few) p(α 3 several) p(α 4 most )dV (4)

0 1 2 3 4  5 6 7 # ( %  $  &   (  "   $ $ + %  $   

, , ,

$ "   ! # .  / "   " .  .  & 6 7 # ( %  $  & ! $  " %

V (4)
, , - , ,

.  / . % ( " & ! " /  " .  8   " & #  & ) . /  "  

, , - , , , - , , - ,

± ¼


E( MARK poor ) = 22.5926 E( MARK mediocre) = 50

∫ p(α1 few) p(α 3 several) p(α 4 most )dV (4)
4 4

E( MARK good ) = 60 E( MARK excellent ) = 82.38



 ( 8

V (4) 9

0.5 0.5 − α1 1− α1 − α 3

∫ p(α1 few) ∫ p(α 3 several) ∫ p(α 4 most ) dα 4 dα 3dα1

  # 4 & "  ( % $   . ! 0 1 2 3 " & : " %  / +

, - , ,

9 9

0 0
0.0714286(22.5926) + 0.0857143(50) + 0.171429(60)
0.5
0.5 0.5 − α 1 1− α 1 − α 3 +0.671429(82.38) = 71.498%
= ∫ (4 − 8α1 ) ∫ 4α 3 ∫ (8α 4 − 4) dα 4 dα 3dα1 = 1 36
0
; < = > ? @ = A B = C D E > E F G H I @ H E A

0 0.5

∀ α1 , , α 4 ∈ V ( 4 ) p α1 , α 2 , α 3 , α 4 K = ( )
¶ ² À ¶ è


  ( ( " " .  . / " $ " + . ! & .   ! .  $ "  :  " & " #

, , , - , , ,

9 9 9

36( 4 − 8α1 )( 4α 3 )(8α 4 − 4) for 0 ≤ α1 ≤ 0.5

 # & " " & $ & . ( & " ! / $ . / / $ .  5

, , , ,

9 9 9 9 9

"   !  # &  ! .  5  . ) $ ( : / & & # .  & " & "  : . 

0 ≤ α 3 ≤ 0.5 and 0.5 ≤ α 4 ≤ 1

9

$ "  :  " & " # !  $ &  (  # & 8  ! ) "  ! . (  # + 7

, , , ,

= 0 otherwise
9 9 9

.  $ "  :  " & " # !  $ / & ( .   ! " $ :  ! $ !  $ J K L

, , -

9 9

 ( J M L ) "  . $ $ . ) "  :  . !  N

, - , -

(( LX = wi )
· ± ¿ ¸ ¹ ´ ³ ¼ ¶ ± Ç ¸ ¾ ´ ² ¸ ¹ ¶ º ± » » ± ¼ ´ ² ½ ¿ ¾ · ½ ´ ² ¾ »

µ ´ ³ ¸ · ´ Ç ¸ ´ ± ² ³

((C1 ) (Cr )) : ((desi ,1 ) (desi ,r ))

Â

p1 (α K ) = P P

{C }
r
−384α 5 + 480α 2 − 120α + 960α 4 − 960α 3 + 12
) ! ! & .     $ $ + 6 # $  & " %  (

- , ,

j j =1 9 9 9 9

for 0 ≤ α ≤ 0.5
wi ∈ T ( LX ) desi , j ⊆ f TPr
6  & " % # .  & ! "  & 4  ( 8

- , , ,

= 0 otherwise
9 9 9

α i , j = Pr LX = wi C j ( ) j = 1,
   . ! 

,r
, -

p2 (α K ) = −76.865α + 192α − 192α + 72α + 9.6 5 2 3

i = 1,
5  . ) $ ( : / & .  &  # !  $ & ) ! # 

,m
- -

9 9

/ "  ! 7 ! ( & :  ! "  :  . $ $ . ) "  :

, , , , -

for 0 ≤ α ≤ 0.5 # .  &

,
! " 

,
& N
9 9

= 0 otherwise
9

Lα i , j is desi , j for i = 1, T

, m and j = 1, T

,r
m
∑ α i , j = 1 for j = 1, T

,r
i =1
 U . )  . !  " 6 ( # .  & ! "  & 4 (  . ( 4 % © ˜ ¨ ª « ™ š • › ¡ • ¨

j Kj
, - , , , - m l q m { m

9 9 9


x p “ k g h i h k n h œ k n h w h s k n

&   . !  & . & :  ! ( / + 5  . ) $ ( :

, - , - ,

9 9 9 9

¬ c

m m l m l q m {

/ & .  $ "  :  " & " #  # &  (  # ) #  ( !  " 

, , - ,

t k v ­ g k h s i x p “ k g h i h k h n j k k i

9 9 9 9 9

V ( m)
® • « — š — ˜ ˜ ™

q m m { l {


7 . & ! " . ! ( " & ! " /  " .  .  .   . ! 

, , , , -

k x w p v k r o p „ „ v k h n h s w w j k s n

( )
l m

p α1, j , , αm, j K j =
z ¯

k ° x k g k r n h w h v ±

( ) ∫∏( )
m m
∏
\ [

l ² ³ ´ l { m l q m m l {

p α i , j desi , j dV ( m)
ƒ

p α i , j desi , j
T ( LSAL ) =


k j k k x p “ k g h i h k n n h w h v s

¡ • ¨ ¶ • ž ˜ › — ˜ ¶ • • ž ¶ Ÿ ˜ › ¢ • • ž ·

i =1 ( ) V m i =1
µ

¦   w n p ~

p (α K )
[

l ¸ ¹ ² l { m l q m q m m

W ! : "  $ ( " & ! " /  " .  & #   /

, , , -

w k j k k x p “ k g h i h k n i t j k p o v k h n p o

9 9

i i, j j 9
m l { m

T ( LYRS ) =
k ° x k s k i g k r k o s i k r p i k t i s œ k n k º » ~ » ¼

( !  "  ( & /  . !  ( 6 7 # ( % $  & . / "  (

, , ,

ª « ™ š • › ¶ ˜ £ ¤ ˜ › š ˜ ™ ¥ ˜ ž ¶ – ˜ ™ š • › ·

{ m

( )
9 9 9 9 † z

k k

αi, j = E αi, j K j M ( junior ) =

"  . ! ( ! . . / "  & "  & X 8

, , , ,

” ¿ ˜ £ ¤ ˜ › š ˜ ™ ¥ ˜ ž À Á

9 9

º » ­ ½ ¾ ­ ½ ½ » ­ » ¼ ~ º » ­ »

” ¿ – ˜ ™ š • › À Á

Y  ! !  . ! 4 # # . ! ( "  : . Z   ! + [ & !  $ ) %

, - , -

¾ ­ ½ ½ ¾ ­ ½ Â » ­ » ¼ h i r º ½ » ­ » ½ ¾ ­ ½ » ­ ½ ¼ k
9 9

m l m q

, - ,

† z Ã

i p w k r k j h n k g h i j k k ° x k n n k r s i k n p o

( ) ( )
r l m m

Pr ( LX = wi ) = ∑ Pr LX = wi C j Pr C j
 

w s i t s n s g k i k h w t w k n j v ­

j =1 Å Å Æ Ç È É Ê Ë Ì Í Î

α i = Pr ( LX = wi ) i = 1, β j = Pr C j ( )
\  . !  (

,m
,
Ç
Å Æ Ï Ð Ê Ñ Ò Ó Ô Ì Õ Î

Å Æ Ç Ê Ö × Ø Ö Õ Ô Ö Ó Ù Ö Ú Î
Ï Ð

j = 1, βj
 . ! 8 U . ) % $  & .   " : /

,r
, - - ,

9
_

Å Æ Ç Ê Û Ö Ó Ô Ì Õ Î
Ï Ð

& 7 # "  " ( ( " ! # $ + / +   & .  &  ( ! ( Y ! " $ !  $ &

, ,

Å Å Ý Ö Í Î Å Þ Ý Ö Í ß Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Å Þ Ý Ö Í ß Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Î

9 9 9

((C )) : β
r
α i = ∑ α i , jβ j
`

j = 1,
 . ! "  ) " # # & b b 8

,r
- -

j j 9

Å Å Æ
Ç È É
Ê â Ì Ú Ö Õ á ã Ö Î

j =1 Å Æ
Ï Ð
Ç Ê Ñ Ò Ó Ô Ì Õ Î

c
$ !  " % $ + 4 )  + % & .  $ "  :  " & " #  # &

, , - , , ,

((C )) : (des′ )
Å Æ Ç Ê Ö × Ø Ö Õ Ô Ö Ó Ù Ö Ú Î
Ï Ð

9 9 9 9 9

des j ⊆ f TPr j = 1,
) !  . ! 8  

,r
-

Ç
Å Æ Ï Ð Ê Û Ö Ó Ô Ì Õ Î

j j
Å Å Þ Ý Ö Í ß Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Å â Ì Û ã Î Å Þ Ý Ö Í ß Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Î

βj
Ü

" & # & ) 5 e . / 6 7 # ( % $  . 

, - , , , - , , -

9 9 9

( )
r
α i = ∑ α i , jβ j
Å Å Æ Ç È É Ê å Ì Ì Ú Î

p β j des ′j
f

c
( " & ! " /  " .  & . 8 &

, , , - , f f

9
Ç
Å Æ Ï Ð Ê Ñ Ò Ó Ô Ì Õ Î

j =1
T ( LX )
Å Æ Ç Ê Ö × Ø Ö Õ Ô Ö Ó Ù Ö Ú Î
Ï Ð

/  . ! ( " & ! " /  " .  :  ! ( . 

, - , , ,

Å Æ Ç Ê Û Ö Ó Ô Ì Õ Î
Ï Ð

g h i j k

l m m q l l l l l

Å Å Þ Ý Ö Í ß Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Å Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë æ Å â Ì Û ã Î Î

h i n o p k r s i p h o t u u v n k p p j h s i h w s i t s n s g

X
m l m q m l q l

r k n g s x s p i p o p h i t k s g h w k n s h k g h i j k

m Ç È É

X = ∑ α i E( x wi )
Å Å Æ Ê å Ì Ì Ú Î

: U

l m l l l { l

Å Æ Ç Ê Ñ Ò Ó Ô Ì Õ Î
Ï Ð

p j h s i k r h g g p r s i p y p s g k h

i =1 z
Å Æ
Ï Ð
Ç Ê Ö × Ø Ö Õ Ô Ö Ó Ù Ö Ú Î

: : : |

l { l l m m q m m m q

Ç
Å Æ Ï Ð Ê Û Ö Ó Ô Ì Õ Î

k w s i t s n s g o h g n k h r s i h v j k s i o k k r o p

| } Y

m l l m l m l l {

Å Å Þ Ý Ö Í ß Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Å Ý Ö Í æ Å Þ Û Ö à Ö Õ á Ë ß â Ì Û ã ä Î Î

h r s k g o t u u v g p i n h s i p i p s i n h i g k ~ k

X is f
l m l m l l { l l

( )
 

o t u u v g p i n h s i k i k h k n k w s i t s n s g o h g n €

( LX = wi ) : lpdes LX ( f ) (wi ) for i = 1,



m q l { m m l l { l { m

,m
ƒ ƒ

 

p k n k t w k n k k i k h k k o p w w p s i k k

l l l m l m q { { l {

des L X ( f )
ƒ ƒ

{ m l { l m l

n k n p o w s i t s n s g g p i n h s i n o p s g k t n k k

q l { m l l q l l { m l

k k s n k w s i t s n s g r k n g s x s p i p o „

k p r n r k n g s j k r h j p œ k p k n s h k k k w k œ h i

l m q m l l

m l m q

r k k s i k r h g g p r s i p r k o s i s s p i

x p j h j s w s v œ h w t k n p k ° h x w k ~

z †

α1,1 = Pr (low junior )

‡ ˆ ‰ Š ‹ Œ  Ž  

ç è Y

p ~

α 2 ,1 = Pr ( moderate junior ) α 3 ,1 = Pr ( good junior )

‘

m l { m l

p i n s r k k o p w w p s i t w k j h n k h i r h n n p g s h k r

m m l l l { q m l q m

α 4 ,1 = Pr (very good junior )

 

t k v k w h s i p k s i g p k p o x p “ k g h i h k n

h i r

Lα 1,1 = few , Lα 2 ,1 ∈ { few , several , most}

” • – — – ˜ ™ š • › • • ž

m l q m { m

x p “ k g h i h k n h œ k  n h w h s k n h i r

– ˜ Ÿ ˜ › ¡ Ÿ ˜ › ¢ • • ž

l l { m

Lα 3 ,1 ∈ { few , several , most}, Lα 4 ,1 ∈ { few , several , most}

h w k h n h œ k  n h w h s k n

α1,1 + α 2 ,1 + α 3 ,1 + α 4 ,1 = 1
” • – — ˜ £ ¤ ˜ › š ˜ ™ ¥ ˜ ž • ž ˜ › — ˜

m l q m {

x p “ k g h i h k n h œ k ¦

– ˜ Ÿ ˜ › ¡ • • ž

m { m m

n h w h s k n h i r h œ k  n h w h s k n p k œ k ~

˜ ¨ Ÿ ˜ › ¢ • • ž

{ m

z §

„ h œ k  n h w h s k n

z
 α1,1 = 0.135294
Y 0 ' 1 ' 2 '   ' !

m q { { l

ƒ ƒ

p s g k p j h s i é h i r

α 2 ,1 = α 3 ,1 = α 4 ,1 = 0.288235
3 4 5

Z Y .    ÿ -  ÿ . # -    

~ ~

ë ì

7
4 8 ù
Y N O \     

ø ø 9 ~ : ; < = > ? @ A ? B C D E F G H I @ J K L M ~

\ .    .   ÿ    P  ÿ      Q        ÿ 

α1, 2 = 0.0857134
í

K2
q m m q l { l î

~ ~ ~ R

s s w h w v k o s i r o p h ~

ù 4

N   .    .

α 2 , 2 = 0.671429 α 3 , 2 = 0.171429 α 4 , 2 = 0.0714286

ï

~ ø R S ~ T U

3 V 5
Z Y .    ÿ -  ÿ . # -    

~ ð ~ ñ

α1, 3 = α 2 , 3 = 0.0837997
6

~ ~

K3
m q l { l ò ò

7
4 8 8 W

h i r o p h ~

9 ~ : ; < = X : A Y Y Z ? @ [ \ ] H [ E @ ^ H ? B ; E ? G I @ H @ _ H @

α 3 , 3 = 0.665734 α 4 , 3 = 0.1666667
ó

` ù

N     
   -    Z 
ÿ #   

~ ô

K < ~ ~

7
3 a 5 4 8 8 b c
Z Y .    ÿ Z \    -  ÿ

~ ~ 9 ~ c

c
      ÿ   ÿ
    
 -        

õ ® • « — š — ˜ ˜ ™ ö ® — ÷

l l

p w k „ „ „ j k h o t u u v n t j n k p i

a a W a i

Y     d   ÿ  e  

® • « — š — ˜ ˜ ™ Á

{ l { l l {

~ : A Y Y Z f E ^ G ? @ [ f Z G ^ E g G h ~

º » ~ » ¼ n t g h „ „ º ½  ­ » ½ ¾ ­ ½ ½ ø ­ » ¼ k i

a b j

m l l { l { l

lpdes L ( x ) (exp.)
h g g p r s i p r k o s i s s p i k h œ k h ­

7
3 k 5 4 8 8 j
Z Y .    ÿ     ÿ  
#  

( abft ) (exp.) = ∫ ∫
z †

9 ~ l m

YRS

( )
lpdes dxdy
 ÿ Y     /   .     [

λ abft y
~ n F I o E E [ H @ _ G I p q @ H o I g

LYRS r ` t t u

0 abft y

lpdes L ( x ) (exp.)
I @ p E F E @ o E I @ : A Y Y Z = I _ H o s H o ? ^ H I @ G ? @ [

1 18 − 3 y
= ∫ ∫
: A ^ A F E v H F E o ^ H I @ G K

YRS
dxdy
7
3 W 5 4 8 8
Z Y .    ÿ Z \    -  ÿ


0 3 y +12
6 (1 − y) c

      ÿ   w
~

 ÿ     
~

Y    
6

N     
h 9


~


l

ÿ 

18 − 3 y
6

1
20 − x
c
\   ÿ ÿ   ÿ      ÿ       /       [ x

1 1
= dxdy = 0.5 ∫ ∫
U

6 0 1 − y 3 y +12 10
u y u

< @ ^ E F @ ? ^ H I @ ? I A F @ ? I p q @ o E F ^ ? H @ ^ Z : A Y Y H @ E G G ? @ [

u b W k W 8 i k j

z     

@ I { E [ _ E X | ? G E [ f Z G ^ E g G } ~ ~ ~ h

7
3 b 5 4 8 a
/ /     Q -   ÿ    ÿ   ÿ

( abft ) ( junior ) = 0
ù

lpdes
q m l { l

~ h 9 ~ l T m

                 -       

s s w h w v k o s i r h h i r

LYRS 6 

( abft ) ( senior ) = 0.5

~

O ÿ      ÿ   Q       [ x

lpdes
l { l l

  

s œ s i t n k w s i t s n s g o h g n : A Y Y Z f E ^ G ? @ [

LYRS 4 

 
4 W i V 

f Z G ^ E g G ~

7
3 j 5 4 8
/ /     Q -   ÿ Y    

Å Å Æ Ç Ê Ñ Ò Ó Ô Ì Õ Î Î
Ï Ð

Ü ú

~ h h 9 ~ l €

ù r t u u u k
        [  

Ç
Å Å Æ Ï Ð Ê Ö × Ø Ö Õ Ô Ö Ó Ù Ö Ú Î Î

Ü ú û ü

~ I g A ^ ? ^ H I @ ? < @ ^ E H _ E @ o E ~ } ~

4 j 4 i 4 j 8
 

Å Å Æ Ç Ê Û Ö Ó Ô Ì Õ Î Î
Ï Ð

Ü ú û ü

7
3 5 4 8 j
. N w  ÿ   Y      ÿ -      

h h 9 ~ l

Pr (low ) = 0.5α1, 2 + 0.5α1, 3

y u
ÿ    ÿ  \     [ x

ý ý

m l { l

T I A F @ ? I p < @ p I F g ? ^ H I @ ? @ [

k i g k ~ k s i o k h

= 0.5(0.0857143 + 0.0837997) = 0.0847565

r u a 4 W k i 4 b 8
 

I @ ^ F I h ~

7
3 8 5 4 8 8 c
Z \     ÿ   
 ÿ    

h 9 ~ l }

u y u
Y     \    [  ‚

þ ÿ
           ÿ


ƒ ƒ

E < @ ^ E F @ ? ^ H I @ ? I A F @ ? I p

Pr ( good ) = 0.4186
` t t 4 8 a 4 W i a a a
 

Pr ( moderate) = 0.3776
 ÿ

F I ƒ H g ? ^ E ; E ? G I @ H @ _ ~

7
3 4  5 4 8 u

Z -   
~

Pr (very good ) = 0.11905

 ÿ     ÿ 


h h 9 ~ n F I „ ? „ H H G ^ H o ; E ? G I @ H @ _ H @

u u u u

< @ ^ E H _ E @ ^ f Z G ^ E g G s E ^ { I F † G I p n ? A G H „ E < @ p E F E @ o E ~

    ÿ ÿ             
       ÿ 

   ÿ      ÿ ÿ

 ÿ          ÿ  
             


7
3 4 4 5 ù 4 8 8 k

-   
  ÿ                

9 ~ ‡ ‡ ~

       ÿ   

` u u u b b 4 8 4 i V a k

x  

F ^ H p H o H ? < @ ^ E H _ E @ o E ~

3 4 V 5 c
\  

   ÿ        ÿ    

low / 0.339 + moderate/0.959 + good/1 + very good / 0.442

ˆ

~ l

       ÿ         ÿ          

7
4 8 j W

    ÿ ÿ  [

~ n ? F ^ < s < @ p I F g ? ^ H I @ f o H E @ o E G ‰ 9

      ! "  

7
4 8 8 i V k 8 Š 4 8 j W
 

n ? F ^ < < s < @ p I F g ? ^ H I @ f o H E @ o E G ‰ 9

# 
      ÿ   ÿ      
      ÿ  

7
a  4 i a W j Š 8 4 8 j b
 

n ? F ^ < < < s < @ p I F g ? ^ H I @ f o H E @ o E G 9

        ÿ          ÿ   ÿ
    

k a i 

 

 ÿ           
  
      
   

7
3 4 a 5 c 4 8 a c
\  
      ÿ  

h 9 ~ l m

    ÿ      ÿ ÿ      ÿ          ÿ  

c
    
 Y       ÿ    ÿ    

R ~

 ÿ      ÿ   
               

r t ` t t u

\  ÿ      [ ‚ ‚  

~ I g K ‹ > E o G K { H ^ H o ? ^ H I @ G }

       

      
 

8 4 4 k 8 i 4 k

  

~ ~ ~ h

7
3 4 k 5 c 4 8 8 b r t
\  

9 ~ : A Y Y Z = I _ H o ΠI g A ^ H @ _

$
 %   &  ' ( ) ' * '  + !

ù
‚  O d d d  ÿ     ÿ   ÿ Y         

{ H ^ I F [ G ~ ~

ù c

 ÿ ,   -    ÿ  ÿ .    ÿ /    

k V 4  a i 4 4 4

    

} ~ ~ ~

.    ÿ  
   ÿ  ÿ  
        ÿ