Here’s your paragraph broken into clear, easy-to-follow key points without missing anything:
1. Seasonal Tendencies & Initial Analysis
Focus is on possession trade management for bullish or bearish market conditions.
Seasonal tendencies are guidelines, not guarantees — just a roadmap of what may happen based on
past patterns.
For bullish markets:
o Identify seasonal tendencies likely in the next 3–4 months.
o Use inter-market analysis to confirm (interest rates, yields, stocks, commodities,
currencies).
o Interest rate increases often support bullish currency moves.
For bearish markets:
o Identify bearish seasonal tendencies and confirm with inter-market analysis.
o Interest rate decreases often support bearish currency moves.
2. Inter-Market Confirmation
Blend analysis of 4 major asset classes:
1. Stock market
2. Interest rates
3. Commodities
4. Currencies
Look for 3 out of 4 confirming your bias.
Use higher time frames (weekly, monthly) to find PD arrays (Premium/Discount Arrays =
institutional reference points like order blocks, old highs/lows, gaps, etc.).
3. Higher Time Frame → Daily Execution
Higher time frames guide direction and objectives.
Focus on quarterly shifts or intermediate swings (every 3–4 months).
On the daily chart:
o Identify order blocks, voids, gaps, rejection blocks, old highs/lows.
o Align daily setups with higher time frame + inter-market + seasonal bias.
4. Entry Method
Decide between:
o Limit order → more precise but risk missing the trade.
o Stop order → more likely to trigger but increases gap between entry & stop-loss.
Always risk no more than 1% of account per trade.
Seek big moves with small capital allocation.
5. Stop-Loss & Trade Management (Bullish)
Initial stop-loss: below the lowest low of last 40 trading days.
Purpose: Avoid being stopped out prematurely in long-term trends.
As trade progresses:
1. 50% of target range reached → still use 40-day lowest low.
2. 75% of range reached → switch to 20-day lowest low.
Allow price to breathe — don’t use ultra-tight stops in long-term trades.
6. Stop-Loss & Trade Management (Bearish)
Initial stop-loss: above the highest high of last 40 trading days.
Same progression as bullish:
1. 50% of target range → keep 40-day highest high.
2. 75% of range → switch to 20-day highest high.
Avoid moving stop too soon to breakeven — can cause missed long-term moves.
7. General Long-Term Trading Principles
Be patient — these setups can take months to form.
Expect pullbacks and consolidation — they are natural in trends.
Wider stops = more survival in volatile conditions.
Use IPTA procedures for measuring data ranges.
Lock in profit more aggressively only when move matures (near target).
Here’s the easy key points version of your paragraph without missing anything:
1. Stop-Loss Adjustment Logic
Don’t keep using the 40 trading day stop-loss for the entire trade.
Once 3/4 of the expected move is complete:
o Bring stop-loss closer to market price to protect profits.
o Still keep it far enough to avoid being stopped out by normal pullbacks.
o If stopped out at a 20-day low (for bullish) or 20-day high (for bearish), you likely:
Secured good profits, or
Avoided a full reversal eroding gains.
2. Example – Bearish Setup (Weekly to Daily)
Example: Japanese Yen weekly chart.
Identify equal lows → bullish order block below them.
Apply Fibonacci to measure range & equilibrium.
Market structure breaks → look for sell to bearish order block.
Entry options:
o Sell limit above close, or
o Sell stop below trigger level.
Initial stop-loss = above highest high of last 40 trading days (~260 pips in example).
Keep stop-loss above the 40-day high each trading day until target reached.
Result: 8× risk reward (8 × 260 pips = large move).
3. Example – Bullish Setup (Weekly to Daily)
Weekly bullish order block targeted to trade up to weekly bearish order block.
Buy example before U.S. election → even with volatility, 40-day stop-loss rule kept position safe.
Always check lowest low in last 40 trading days when in a bullish trade.
As long as target is not reached:
o Keep stop-loss below the 40-day low.
o Protects from being knocked out during normal pullbacks.
4. Switching to Tighter Stops
Add Fibonacci to measure move:
o Once price passes halfway point (equilibrium) → start using 20 trading day stop-loss.
o 20-day stop-loss trails closer but still gives breathing room.
Example sequence:
o Before halfway: stop-loss below lowest low of last 40 trading days.
o After halfway: stop-loss below lowest low of last 20 trading days until target hit.
5. Key Higher Time Frame Stop-Loss Principle
Before halfway to target: use 40-day stops.
After halfway: use 20-day stops to lock profits.
Market tends to seek liquidity at 40-day highs/lows before mid-move, then 20-day highs/lows near
the end.
This method is based on IFTA data ranges and works for higher time frame trend trading.
