Athene - CRE - 1706240160 2
Athene - CRE - 1706240160 2
April 2023
Disclaimer
This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any security of Athene Holding Ltd. (“Athene”).
Unless the context requires otherwise, references in this presentation to “Apollo," "AGM" and "AGM HoldCo" refer to Apollo Global Management, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, and references in this presentation to “AAM” refer
to Apollo Asset Management, Inc., a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, Inc.
This presentation contains, and certain oral statements made by Athene’s representatives from time to time may contain, forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section
27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results, events and
developments to differ materially from those set forth in, or implied by, such statements. These statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Athene’s management and the management of Athene’s subsidiaries. Generally,
forward-looking statements include actions, events, results, strategies and expectations and are often identifiable by use of the words “believes,” “expects,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “seeks,” “estimates,” “projects,” “may,”
“will,” “could,” “might,” or “continues” or similar expressions. Forward looking statements within this presentation include, but are not limited to, benefits to be derived from Athene's capital allocation decisions; the anticipated
performance of Athene's portfolio in certain stress or recessionary environments; the performance of Athene's business; general economic conditions; the failure to realize economic benefits from the merger with Apollo; expected
future operating results; Athene's liquidity and capital resources; and other non-historical statements. Although Athene management believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can
give no assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct. For a discussion of other risks and uncertainties related to Athene's forward-looking statements, see its annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31,
2022, which can be found at the SEC’s website at [Link]. All forward-looking statements described herein are qualified by these cautionary statements and there can be no assurance that the actual results, events or
developments referenced herein will occur or be realized. Athene does not undertake any obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect changed assumptions, the occurrence of unanticipated events or changes
to future operating results.
Information contained herein may include information respecting prior performance of Athene. Information respecting prior performance, while a useful tool, is not necessarily indicative of actual results to be achieved in the future,
which is dependent upon many factors, many of which are beyond Athene's control. The information contained herein is not a guarantee of future performance by Athene, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from
any historic, pro forma or projected financial results indicated herein. Certain of the financial information contained herein is unaudited or based on the application of non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures
should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures presented in accordance with GAAP. Furthermore, certain financial information is based on estimates of management. These estimates,
which are based on the reasonable expectations of management, are subject to change and there can be no assurance that they will prove to be correct. The information contained herein does not purport to be all-inclusive or contain
all information that an evaluator may require in order to properly evaluate the business, prospects or value of Athene. Athene does not have any obligation to update this presentation and the information may change at any time
without notice.
Models that may be contained herein (the “Models”) are being provided for illustrative and discussion purposes only and are not intended to forecast or predict future events. Information provided in the Models may not reflect the
most current data and is subject to change. The Models are based on estimates and assumptions that are also subject to change and may be subject to significant business, economic and competitive uncertainties, including numerous
uncontrollable market and event driven situations. There is no guarantee that the information presented in the Models is accurate. Actual results may differ materially from those reflected and contemplated in such hypothetical,
forward-looking information. Undue reliance should not be placed on such information and investors should not use the Models to make investment decisions. Athene has no duty to update the Models in the future.
Certain of the information used in preparing this presentation was obtained from third parties or public sources. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of Athene or any other person as to
the accuracy, completeness or fairness of such information, and no responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information. The contents of any website referenced in this presentation are not incorporated by reference.
This document is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, financial, legal, tax, insurance or investment advice. There can be no assurance that Athene will achieve its objectives. Past performance is not indicative of
future success. All information is as of the dates indicated herein.
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Industry Considerations
Commercial Real Estate Always Has Been an Integral Asset Class for Insurers
• CRE has been a widely-held asset class across the insurance landscape for decades
• CRE is well-suited for insurers given the longer duration of liabilities / funding model
• CMLs help insurers to match the duration of assets and liabilities, capture risk-adjusted yield premiums, and increase portfolio diversification
• As of 2022, life insurance companies held over $1 trillion in total real estate assets, including more than $585 billion of CMLs
22%
RE RMBS
3.4%
Other 0.7%
RE Equity CML
1.5% 11.7%
Low
Long Downside
CMBS
Historical
3.9%
Dated Protected
Losses
Source: SNL Financial.
1. Percentage of total general account assets for all statutory entities, as of December 31, 2022.
4
Capital Requirements and Return Potential Drive Behavior
1. Refers to NAIC required capital levels at an illustrative 100% Risk-Based Capital (RBC) level. 2. Commercial Mortgage Loans assume CM2 under NAIC. 3. Commercial real estate equity assumes Schedule A direct real estate at low LTVs.
5
Not All CRE is Created Equal – Today It’s Better to Own Debt, Not Equity
Capital Structure Subsector
Lower Risk
Industrial
CRE Debt
• 1st Lien / Senior
• Mezzanine
Multifamily
Hotel
Retail
Equity
Office
Higher Risk
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When CRE ‘Cap Rates’ Rise, Equity is Impaired Before Debt
Cap Rate: 5.0% Cap rate: +200 bps to 7.0%
Value: $100 million = 30% decrease in value
Buildings are permanent, but real estate
debt is temporary
Equity Equity
Upon debt maturity, equity will be
(40% - 100% Impaired impaired if the market value of the
of capital stack) building is below the par value of debt
Note: Capitalization rates (‘cap rates’) reflect the rate of return investors can expect to earn on CRE investments (Cap Rate = Net Operating Income / Property Value). Can also be thought of as the inverse of valuation multiples. Illustration assumes no Net Operating Income growth.
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Athene Has De Minimis Exposure to CRE Equity
Real Estate Equity as % of Total General Account Assets
U.S. Retirement Services Companies by Type Select AA/A+ Retirement Services Peers
2.7%
1.2%
1.0% 1.0%
0.7%
0.5% 0.5%
0.4%
0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Athene Variable Fixed Annuity AA / A+ Diversified Insurer 1 Insurer 2 Insurer 3 Insurer 4 Average Athene
ATH
Annuity Life
Note: CRE equity includes affiliated and unaffiliated real estate assets held by U.S.-based insurance subsidiaries from Schedule BA and Schedule A directly held real estate of statutory filings, aggregated by SNL Financial. Metrics shown as a % of invested assets as of December 31, 2022. Variable Annuity Companies
include JXN, LNC, BHF, and EQH. Diversified Life Insurers include MET, PRU and CRBG. Fixed Annuity Companies include AEL, Global Atlantic, FG, and CNO; AA/A+ rated companies include MET, PRU, CRBG and EQH.
8
Debt is Well Protected Even With No Net Operating Income Growth
Illustrative Example
Cap Rate: 5.0%
9
Net Operating Income Growth Varies Significantly by Subsector
Projected Net Operating Income (NOI) Growth by Commercial Real Estate Subsector
150
3Y CAGR
140 10.0%
130
120 3.5%1
3.9%1 3.1%
2.7%
110
3.2%
3.0%
100
90
-2.6% -2.3%
80
Dec-2022 Dec-2023 Dec-2024 Dec-2025 Dec-2026 Dec-2027
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Each Commercial Real Estate Subsector Has Different Risk Profiles…
Favorable
Neutral
Unfavorable
INDUSTRIAL HOTEL MULTIFAMILY RETAIL OFFICE
Demand
Occupancy
NOI Growth
Asset Values
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…And Specialty Property Types Can Provide Differentiated Risk / Reward
Manufactured Housing Net Lease Life Sciences Student Housing Cold Storage
Specialty Property Types
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Loan Sizing Historically Has Been Restricted by LTV, and in a Higher Interest
Rate Environment, Refinancing will Require Substantial Equity Injection
Sample Changes in Metrics on a Loan Refinance
Limiting factor is highlighted in table above. 1 Assumes loan is fixed rate. Loan-to-Value (‘LTV’) is the amount of debt financing a lender will provide as a percent of the value of the asset. Debt service coverage ratio (‘DSCR’) is the measurement of how many times asset-level cash flows can cover the loan’s debt
service. DSCR = net operating income / debt service.
13
Real Estate Debt Also Benefits From Significant Protection Via Loan Structure
Structural
Reserves set
Credit protections that
from cash flow to
enhancement Amortization trap cash to
cover building
from equity support debt in
operating costs
periods of stress
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Athene’s CRE Portfolio
Key Takeaways
SENIOR PART OF THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE
1 Portfolio is virtually all mortgage debt (i.e. not equity) which is well-suited to match Athene’s long-dated funding profile
NOT OVERALLOCATED
4 12% allocation to CMLs is in line with Top-10 U.S. banks and lower than AA/A+ rated Retirement Services peers
POST-COVID ORIENTATION
5 56% of the CML portfolio was originated after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
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Athene’s CRE Investments Are Virtually All Debt…
Total CRE Debt Plus Equity as % of General Account Assets
U.S. Retirement Services Companies by Type Select AA/A+ Retirement Services Peers
14.9%
14.1% 14.3%
13.8%
13.3% 13.3%
12.8% 0.7%
12.2% 1.0% 2.7% 12.2% 1.0%
1.2%
10.0%
8.7%
14.4%
13.4% 13.4%
12.1% 11.6% 12.3% 11.6% 12.1% 12.3%
9.8%
8.2%
Fixed Annuity Athene Diversified Life AA / A+ Variable Annuity PRU CRBG MET EQH ATH Average
Rated
CRE Debt CRE Equity CRE Debt CRE Equity
Note: Metrics based on GAAP net invested assets as of December 31, 2022.
Variable Annuity Companies include JXN, LNC, BHF, and EQH. Diversified Life Insurers include MET, PRU and CRBG. Fixed Annuity Companies include AEL, Global Atlantic, FG, and CNO; AA/A+ rated companies include MET, PRU, CRBG and EQH.
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…Underwritten to Conservative LTVs Relative to the Industry
Industry-Wide Average CRE Loan-to-Value by Year of Origination1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
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Athene Has a Well-Constructed CML Portfolio
$24
or necessity retail Retail
Coverage 54% 1st mortgage
62% mezzanine 9%
Ratio1
Note: Data presented on a net invested assets basis, excluding Athene’s non-controlling interest in ACRA.
1. DSCR is calculated based on interest rate cap. 2. LTV figures based on original appraised values at close or most recent appraisal. 3. Other includes Schools, Student Housing, Caravan Parks, Production Studios, Parking Garages, and Self Storage.
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Portfolio Quality Improved Throughout COVID Pandemic
% of Portfolio Designated CM 1 & 2 Retail Sector as % of Portfolio Office Sector as % of Portfolio
76% 27%
9%
$13B or 56% of Athene’s CMLs were originated after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
Note: Data presented net of Athene’s non-controlling interest in ACRA.
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Athene’s CMLs Have Been Very Resilient, With Losses Well Below Underwriting
Expectations and Industry
• Over the last decade, Athene’s impairments (OTTI) have averaged 2 basis points annualized compared to 7 basis points annualized for the industry1
20 bps
Significant
outperformance vs.
underwriting
assumptions
11 bps
7 bps 7 bps
3
2 bps long-term average
0 bps 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
AtheneLosses
OTTI and Realized Annualized LossAthene
Rate Annualized Loss Rate
Note: Data presented net of Athene’s non-controlling interest in ACRA.
1. Industry average includes BHF, CNO, CRBG, EQH, LNC, MET, PRU, VOYA. Source: Barclays. 2. Represents historical impairments based on percentage of total CML as of year-end for the years 2011-2022. 3. Athene annualized loss rate represents the annualized average of realized losses and OTTI on the CML
portfolio against total deployments since inception.
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Athene’s CRE Portfolio Performs Well in Stress Testing
• Within the capital impacts disclosed as part of Athene’s annual asset stress testing (excerpt below), losses are conservatively assumed to occur
instantaneously so as to provide a view of the day one impact in the context of annual statutory earnings and excess capital
• If Athene’s modeled recession scenarios were to occur, it is likely losses on the CML portfolio would emerge over time as the loans mature and incremental
capital is needed at the properties, with estimated annual loss rates in the Baseline Recession and Stagflation scenarios approaching Athene’s
conservatively biased underwriting assumptions
Forecasted CRE Losses in Baseline Recession, Deep Recession, and Stagflation Scenarios
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Like Corporate Bonds, Commercial Mortgage Loans Have a Ratings Framework
• ‘CM’ designations (1-7) are used by insurance companies to calculate risk-based capital (RBC) charges
• Unlike corporate bond designations, which are based on NRSRO ratings, CM designations are formulaic and driven by LTV, DSCR, without regard to
idiosyncratic factors
23
Highly Rated CML Portfolio; ‘CM3’ Designations Driven by Idiosyncratic Factors
• Most of Athene’s CM3 loans have idiosyncratic features that are penalized under the CML framework
• For example, mezzanine loans are notched down from 1st lien from where their LTV / DSCR would otherwise apply, and certain specialty real estate types
(i.e. parking garages and production studios) are subject to higher LTV / DSCR targets for equivalent CM designations
• CM3 loans are still viewed as high quality, since they carry a lower capital requirement than the comparable NAIC 3 bucket for corporate bonds
3
Expected to migrate to CM2 within 12-24 months, upon
54% expected stabilization or achievement of sponsor’s
business plan
CM2
59%
58%
$24 CM3
Wtd. Avg 15%
Subject to a more stringent grid of LTV and DSCR than
22% standard CML types due to specialty nature
Billion LTV1
76%
CM1
17%
CM4 31% Credit quality of CM2, but rated CM3 due to structure
2%
CM1 & CM2 CM5
<1%
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Athene is Well Positioned to Capitalize on the Current Market Opportunity
• Athene remains an active investor in CMLs, and year-to-date1 has committed over $1 billion of capital to well-structured CMLs secured by non-office collateral
• 2023 CMLs have lower leverage and higher all-in rates than have been achieved over the past several years
• While spreads within Athene’s floating-rate CML portfolio generally remain constant, floating-rate loans continue to benefit from rising base rates
• Current projected returns for these loans are in excess of those forecasted at loan closing given increases in SOFR
Weighted Average Rates on Athene Fixed-Rate CMLs2 Weighted Average Rates on Athene Floating-Rate CMLs2
Avg. UST by Wtd. Avg. Life Implied Athene Spread Avg. SOFR Contractual Athene Spread
8.9%
6.1% +4.2%
5.8%
+2.3%
3.7% 3.7% +3.9%
3.0%
+0.7%
+1.7% 4.7%
3.8% +3.7%
3.0%
1.3% 1.9%
Note: Includes transactions closed to date and in closing. Coupons of fixed-rate deals in closing shown at locked rates (as applicable) or based on current UST and contractual coupon floors.
1. Data as of April 27, 2023. 2. Excludes UK/European CMLs.
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Athene’s CRE Office Investments
Athene’s CML Office Investments are 100% Debt
$5.9B
Strong Credit High Quality Concentrated in Proactive Asset
Metrics and Sponsors with Loans with Management Class A CBD 3
75%
Structure Deep Pockets Class A Assets Focus 64% of which is
long-term leased to
and Long-Term credit tenants with
Leases 8 yr. remaining wtd.
avg. lease term
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Athene’s Office CML Composition
Manhattan
Mezzanine 22%
Fixed UK/Europe
18% 7%
57%
$5.9B Mortgage
Fixed
South
Other
LTV
12%
51% New York
10%
Mortgage
Floating
25% California Ex. LA
Los Angeles
18%
19%
Predominantly
~3% Downtown LA
long-term leased
(of total office)
to credit tenants
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Athene is Not Overweight Investments in the Office Sector
CML investments in Office sector are below industry average, and well below when accounting for equity investments
Office CMLs as % of Total CMLs Office CMLs as % of General Account Assets1
$ in Billions $ in Billions
40%
4.6%
4.3%
3.8%
27% Peer Avg. 26% 3.6%
26% 25%
Peer Avg. 3.5%
24%
3.0%
21%
2.7%
18%
1.7%
$21.0 $8.0 $4.3 $5.9 $4.6 $3.6 $7.6 $21.0 $4.3 $4.6 $8.0 $5.9 $3.6 $7.6
MET CRBG PFG Athene Global LNC PRU MET PFG Global CRBG Athene LNC PRU
Atlantic Atlantic
Note: All metrics as of December 31, 2022. 1. Represents Office CMLs as a percentage of General Account Assets, calculated as GAAP invested assets plus cash.
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Office Loan Volumes and Future Borrower Maturities
• ~50% of Athene’s current office portfolio was originated post-COVID, underwritten and structured with work-from-home trends and
flight to quality office demand in mind
• Long maturity runway, with only 16% of office loans maturing over next couple years (2023-2024)
$967
$638
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029+
Note: Data presented net of Athene’s non-controlling interest in ACRA.
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Non-GAAP Definitions & Reconciliations
Net Invested Assets
In managing our business, we analyze net invested assets, which does not correspond to total investments, including investments in related parties, as disclosed in our consolidated financial statements and notes thereto. Net invested assets
represent the investments that directly back our net reserve liabilities as well as surplus assets. Net invested assets is used in the computation of net investment earned rate, which allows us to analyze the profitability of our investment portfolio.
Net invested assets includes (a) total investments on the consolidated balance sheet with AFS securities at cost or amortized cost, excluding derivatives, (b) cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash, (c) investments in related parties, (d)
accrued investment income, (e) VIE and VOE assets, liabilities and noncontrolling interest adjustments, (f) net investment payables and receivables, (g) policy loans ceded (which offset the direct policy loans in total investments) and (h) an
adjustment for the allowance for credit losses. Net invested assets also excludes assets associated with funds withheld liabilities related to business exited through reinsurance agreements and derivative collateral (offsetting the related cash
positions). We include the underlying investments supporting our assumed funds withheld and modco agreements in our net invested assets calculation in order to match the assets with the income received. We believe the adjustments for
reinsurance provide a view of the assets for which we have economic exposure. Net invested assets includes our proportionate share of ACRA investments, based on our economic ownership, but does not include the proportionate share of
investments associated with the noncontrolling interest. Our net invested assets are averaged over the number of quarters in the relevant period to compute our net investment earned rate for such period. While we believe net invested assets is
a meaningful financial metric and enhances our understanding of the underlying drivers of our investment portfolio, it should not be used as a substitute for total investments, including related parties, presented under US GAAP.
RECONCILIATION OF TOTAL INVESTMENTS, INCLUDING RELATED PARTIES, TO NET INVESTED ASSETS December 31, 2022
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