è year of Earth and Universe sciences AU 2019-2020

Subject: Mathematics 2

TD 4: Discrete random variables

Exercise 1:

The probability law of a random variable X is given by the following table:

1 2 3 4 5 6
( = )a 2a 3a 3a 2a a
With ∈ ℝ.

1) What condition(s) on a does this table properly define a probability law?

2) Calculate ( <= )3and ( 4 )
3) Calculate the expectation and the variance of X.

Exercise 2:

In a population of 3000 individuals, 1470 have blood type O, 1140 have the
type A, 300 type B and the rest type AB. Let X be the random variable that associates with each individual the
0, 1, 2 or 3 if the person has blood type O, A, B, AB respectively.
1) Determine the probability distribution of the random variable X.

2) Calculate the expected value, variance, and standard deviation.

Exercise 3:

A factory produces electronic components. The probability that a component is

defective 0.05. We consider a sample of 200 objects. Let X be the random variable that
count the number of defective components.

1) Give the law that X follows and its formula.

What is the probability that no object is defective?
What is the probability that two objects are defective?

Exercise 4:

A multiple-choice exam consists of 20 questions, each question having 4 choices.

One is fair. A student who is completely clueless about his course checks randomly:

1) Give the law that X follows and its formula.

What is the probability that this student fails all the questions?
What is the probability that this student gives 3 correct answers.
4) What is the probability that this student gives at most 2 correct answers?

1
Exercise 5:

In a hotel, an average of 1.25 people arrive every 10 minutes between 3 PM and 9 PM. Let X be the
number of people arriving at this hotel every 10 minutes during this particular time period.

What is the probability that k people arrive in 10 minutes?

What is the probability that 2 people arrive in 10 minutes?
What is the probability that at most 4 people arrive in 10 minutes?

Exercise 6:

A receptionist receives an average of two calls per hour. If he/she is absent for one hour, what
What is the probability that he does not miss any call? And what is the probability that he misses one?

TD 4: Discrete random variables – The solution

Exercise 1:

The probability law of a random variable X is given by the following table:

1 2 3 4 5 6
( = ) a 2a 3a 3a 2a a
With ∈ ℝ.

1) What condition(s) on a does this table define a probability law well?

We know well that ( = ) = ( ) , and for that be a probability law, it must be that
( ) greater than or equal to 0
check: { 6
∑ =1 ( ) = 1

Let's start with the second condition:

6

∑ ( ) = 1⇒ ( 1+ ) (
2+ ) 3+ ( ) 4+ ( 5)+ ( 6=)1 ( )
=1

⇒ (1+) 2 ( +) 3 +( ) 4 + ( )5 + ( 6=
) 1 ( )

a + 2a + 3a + 3a + 2a + a =1

⇒ 12a =1

⇒ = = ,

2) Calculate ( )
≤ 3and ( 4 )

▪ P (X ≤ 3 )= ( = 1+ ) X =( 2+ ) = 3(
X )
2
 1 1
⇒ P (X ≤ 3 )a + 2a + 3a =6 = 6× =
12 2

⇒ ( ≤ )= = ,

( > 4) =) ?
▪ P(X

Method 1: (4= X) = 5+( =)6 ( )

1 1
( > 4) =) 2a + a = 3a = 3 ×
⇒ P(X =
12 4

⇒ ( > )= = ,

Method 2: (4= 1− ) X ≤ 4 ( )

( ≤ 4)= ( = 1+ ) X =( 2+ )X = 3+
( + )=4 ( )

1 3
⇒ P (X ≤ 3 )= a + 2a + 3a + 3a = 9a = 9 × =
12 4
3
⇒ P (X ≤ 3 )=
4

And like: (4= 1− ) X ≤ 4 ( )

31
( > 4) =) 1− =
⇒ P(X
4 4

⇒ ( > )= = ,

3) Calculate the expectation and variance of X.

The mathematical expectation: ( =)∑ = ( )

⇒ ( )(= )1×
( 1+( 2) )× ( 2 +3( ×) P) 3( +4 × (P ) 4) (+5 × P (5 ) ) ( )
+ 6×
( 6( ))

⇒ ( ))= 1×
( + )2 ×(2a+ 3 ×) 3a+
( 4 × 3a+
) (5 × 2a+ )6× ( ) (

1 7
⇒ ( )= a + 4a + 9a +12a +10a +6a = 42a = 42 × =
12 2

⇒ ( )= = ,

Variance: =( ) −( ) ( ( ) ) with ( =) = ∑ ( )

3
 6
2) 2 ( = )1× ( 21+ 2 ( ×) ) 2( 2+3 × ( ) 3)
( =∑ (+42 × (4 ) ) ( 2 ( ))
=1
+ (5 2 × 5( ) +6×
) ( 2
6 ( ))

2 2 2 2 2 2 2
⇒ ( ()= 1× + 2) × (2a + 3 )×3a( + 4 × )3a (+ 5 ×2a) +6×
( ) ( )

2 1 85
⇒ ( )= a + 8a + 27a + 48a + 50a + 36 = 170a =170 × =
12 6

2 85
⇒ ( )= = 1417
6

On a: ( =) ( −) ( ( ))

( ))= 1417 −3.5 ( 2

⇒

⇒ ( )= ,

Exercise 2:

In a population of 3000 individuals, 1470 have blood type O, 1140 have the
Type A, 300 type B and the rest type AB. Let X be the random variable that associates with each
individuals the value 0, 1, 2, or 3 if the person has respectively blood type O, A,
B, AB.

Let the following events be:

The individual has blood type O.

The individual has blood type A.

The individual has blood type B.

AB: 'the individual has blood type AB'

The data from the exercise are:

O = 1470 A = 1140 B = 300 AB = ?

⇒ AB = Ω -( O+ A+ B)

⇒ AB = 3000 - (1470 + 1140 + 300)

⇒ AB = 90

1) Determine the probability distribution of the random variable X.

We can clearly see that: { 1, 2, 3 (it

: {O, A, B, AB}→ 0, } is a discrete random variable).

It is necessary to calculate then: ( 0)( )(1, ) 2and 3 ( )

4
By definition we have: ( ) = ({ ∈ Ω / ( )= })

That is to say:
1470
• (0 ) = ({ ∈ Ω / X omega
( ) = 0=}) (= ) =
Ω 3000

⇒ ( )= ,
1140
• (1=) ∈Ω/X
({ (
Omega =) 1= }) =( ) =
Ω 3000

⇒ ( )= ,
300
• (2 ) = ({ ∈ Ω / X omega
( ) = 2=}) (= ) =
Ω 3000

⇒ ( )= ,
90
• (3 ) = ({ ∈ Ω / X Omega
( ) = 3=}) ( =) =
Ω 3000

⇒ ( )= ,

We can summarize the results in a table as follows:

0 1 2 3
( = ) 0.49 0.38 0,1 0.03

2) Calculate the expected value, variance, and standard deviation.

The mathematical expectation: ( =)∑ = ( )

⇒ ( )(= ) 0×
( 0 ( )+1×
) ( 1+ 2( ×) ) (2 +3 ×( P) ) 3 ( )

⇒ ( ))= 0×
( 0.49 + 1×
) 0.38+
( 2 ×)0,1+
( 3× 0.03
) (

⇒ ( )= ,

The variance: ( =) ( −) ( ( ) ) with ( =) = ∑ ( )

4
2) 2 2
( =∑ ( = ) 0 (× 0 ( ))
+1× (1+2 2 × ( ) )2 (+32 times ( )3) ( 2 ( ))
=1

2 2 2 2 2
⇒ ( ()= 1× 0.49+ 2 )× 0.38
( + 3 ×0,1+
) ( 4 × 0.03
) ( )

2
⇒ ( )3.39

On a : ( )= ( )
− ( ( ))

( ))= 3.39 − 0,67

( 2
⇒

5
⇒ ( )= ,

Standard deviation: = √( )

⇒ = √ 2.9411

⇒ = ,
Exercise 3:

A factory produces electronic components. The probability that a component is

defective 0.05. We consider a sample of 200 objects. Let X be the random variable that
count the number of defective components.

1) Give the law that X follows and its formula.

We can see that: : Ω → 0,{1, 2, 3, …200 (it is}a discrete random variable).

So follows the binomial law of size = 200 and parameter = 0,05 , we then write

↳ B( ; , )

( ) = 2000.051-0.05
( ) ( ) 200− with ∈ 012,
{ 3, … , 200( }represents the number
of defective components)

⇒ ( )= ( , ) ( , ) − with ∈ 0,
{ 1, 2, 3, … , 200 }

What is the probability that no object is defective?

(0 ) = 0 ( )0.95
0( ) 200−0 = 0 ( ) 200
2000.05 2000.95

0 200!
With 200 = =1
0! (200-0 ! )

(0 )) = (0.95 200
⇒
−
⇒ ( )= , ×

What is the probability that two objects are defective?

(2 ) = 2 ( )0.95
2( ) 200−2 = 2 ( )20.95
( ) 198
2000.05 2000.05

2 200! 200! 198!×199×200 198!×199×200

With 200 = = = = = 199 ×100
2! (200−2! ) 2!×198! 2!×198! 198!×2

⇒ (2 ) =199 ×100 ×0.05( )2 (

0.95 ) 198

−
⇒ ( )= , ×

Exercise 4:

A multiple-choice exam consists of 20 questions, each question having 4 choices, of which

one is just. A student who completely ignores his class, he checks randomly:
6
 1) Give the law that X follows and its formula.

It is clear that: : Ω → 0, 1,{2, 3, …, 20 (it is }a discrete random variable).

1
So follows the binomial law of size = 20 and parameter = 0.25then we write
4

↳ B( ; , )

( ) = 200.251-0.25
( ) ( ) 20− with ∈ 0,
{ 1, 2, 3, … , 20(} represents the number of
correct answers

⇒ ( )= ( , ) (, ) − with ∈ 011,
{ 2, 3, … , 20 }

What is the probability that this student will fail all the questions?

(0 ) = 0 ( )0.75
0( ) 20−0 = 0 ( ) 20
200.25 200.75

0 20!
With 20= =1
0! (20−0! )

(0 )) = (0.75 20
⇒
−
⇒ ( )= , × ≅ ,

What is the probability that this student gives 3 correct answers.

3 ( ) 20 minus 3 (
(3 ) = 200.25 )0.75
3( =3 200.25 )30.75
( ) 17

3 20! twenty! 17!×18×19×20 18×19×20

With 20= = = = = 18 ×19 ×10
3! (20−3 ! ) 3!×17! 3!×17! 3

⇒ )3 (
(3 ) =18 ×19 ×10 ×0.25 ( 0.75 ) 17

⇒ ( )= ,

4) What is the probability that this student gives at most 2 correct answers?

( ≤ 2)= 0( +)( ) 1+( ) 2

(1=) 1 ( ) 20-1 = 1 ( ) 19
• 200.25 )1 ( 200.25 )10.75
(

1 20! 20! 19!×20

With 20= = = = 20
(
1!20−1 !) 19! 19!

⇒ (1=
) 20 × 0.25
( )1 (
0.75 ) 19

⇒ ( )= ,

(2 ) = 2 ( ) 20−2 = 2 ( ) 18
200.25 )0.75
• 2( )20.75
(
200.25

2 20! 20! 18!×19×20

With 20= = = = 19 ×10 =190
2! (20−2 ! ) 18!×2 18!×2

⇒ (3 ) =190 ×0.25
( )2 (
0.75 ) 18

7
 −
⇒ ( )= , × ≅ ,

• So: ≤( 20.003) + 0.021+ 0.002

⇒ ( ≤ )= ,

Exercise 5:

In a hotel, an average of 1.25 people arrive every 10 minutes between 3 PM and 9 PM. Let X be the
number of people arriving at this hotel every 10 minutes during this specific schedule.

1) What is the probability that k people arrive in 10 minutes?

The random variable follows the Poisson distribution of parameterλ > 0, with : ( )= − where
!

= 1,25(k represents the number of people arriving at this hotel every 10 minutes in this
special schedule.

, − ,
⇒ ( )= !

What is the probability that 2 people arrive in 10 minutes?

1,252
(2 ) = −1250.224
2!
⇒ ( )= ,

3) What is the probability that at most 4 people arrive in 10 minutes?

( <= 2)= 0( +
) 1+( ) 2 + ( )3 + ( 4) ( )

125 0
• 0( )= −1,250.287
0!

1,25 1
• 1=
( ) −1,250.358
1!

1,25 3
• 3( )= −1,250.093
3!

125 4
• 4( )= −1,250.029
4!

So: <=
( 2= 0,287
) + 0,358 + 0,224 + 0,093 + 0,029

⇒ ( ≤ )= ,

Exercise 6:

A receptionist receives an average of two calls per hour. If they are absent for an hour, what
What is the probability that he misses no calls?

8
The random variable follows the Poisson law with parameterλ > 0, with: ( )= − where
!

λ = 2(k represents the number of telephone calls).

⇒ ( )= −
!

The probability that he misses no calls:

2-20
(0 ) = = 0,135
0!
⇒ ( )= ,
The probability that he will miss one:

21 -2
(1=) 0.270
1!
⇒ ( )= ,