Statistical and Mathematical

Methods for Data Analysis

Dr. Syed Faisal Bukhari
Associate Professor
Department of Data Science
Faculty of Computing and Information Technology
University of the Punjab

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 1

Textbooks
Probability & Statistics for Engineers & Scientists,
Ninth Edition, Ronald E. Walpole, Raymond H. Myer

Elementary Statistics: Picturing the World, 6th

Edition, Ron Larson and Betsy Farber

Elementary Statistics, 13th Edition, Mario F. Triola

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 2

Reference books
 Probability and Statistical Inference, Ninth Edition,
Robert V. Hogg, Elliot A. Tanis, Dale L. Zimmerman

 Probability Demystified, Allan G. Bluman

Schaum's Outline of Probability, Second Edition,

Seymour Lipschutz, Marc Lipson

Python for Probability, Statistics, and Machine Learning, José

Unpingco

Practical Statistics for Data Scientists: 50 Essential Concepts,

Peter Bruce and Andrew Bruce

Think Stats: Probability and Statistics for Programmers, Allen

Downey
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 3
References
Readings for these lecture notes:

Probability & Statistics for Engineers & Scientists,

Ninth edition, Ronald E. Walpole, Raymond H. Myer

Probability Demystified, Allan G. Bluman

Elementary Statistics, 10th Edition, Mario F. Triola

These notes contain material from the above three

books.
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 4
Intersection [1]

Intersection: The intersection of two events A and B,

denoted by the symbol A∩B, is the event containing
all elements that are common to A and B.

Example: Let E be the event that a person selected at

random in a classroom is majoring in engineering,
and let F be the event that the person is female.
Then E∩F is the event of all female engineering
students in the classroom.
.
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 5
Intersection [2]
Example: Let V = {a, e, i, o, u} and C = {l, r, s, t}; then
it follows that V∩C = ∅. That is, V and C have no
elements in common and, therefore, cannot both
simultaneously occur.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 6

Union
Union: The union of the two events A and B,
denoted by the symbol A∪B, is the event containing
all the elements that belong to A or B or both.

Notation for Addition Rule

P(A or B) = P(in a single trial, event A occurs or event
B occurs or they both occur)

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 7

Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint,
if A∩B = { } or ∅
OR
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive, or disjoint,
if A∩B = ∅, that is, if A and B have no elements in
common.
OR
Events A and B are disjoint (or mutually exclusive) if
they cannot occur at the same time. (That is, disjoint
events do not overlap.)

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 8

Addition Rule I

Addition Rule I: When two events are mutually

exclusive or disjoint events

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

OR

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 9

Example: When a die is rolled, find the probability of
getting a 2 or a 3.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 10

Solution:
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}; n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting a “2”
A = {2}; n(A) = 1
1
P(A) = n(A)/n(S) = = 0.1667 (or 16.67%)
6
Let B be the event of getting a “3”
B = {3}; n(B) = 1
1
P(B) = n(B)/n(S) = = 0.1667 (or 16.67%)
6
Since events A and B are mutually exclusive, so
1 1 2 1
P(A ∪ B) = + = = = 0.3333 (or 33.33%)
6 6 6 3

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 11

Addition Rule I [2]
A cable television company offers programs on eight
different channels, three of which are affiliated with
ABC, two with NBC, and one with CBS. The other
two are an educational channel and the ESPN sports
channel. Suppose that a person subscribing to this
service turns on a television set without first
selecting the channel. Let A be the event that the
program belongs to the NBC network and B the
event that it belongs to the CBS network. Since a
television program cannot belong to more than one
network, the events A and B have no programs in
common.
Therefore, the intersection A ∩ B contains no
programs, and consequently the events A and B are
mutually exclusive.
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 12
Addition Rule I [3]
Example: In a committee meeting, there were 5
freshmen, 6 sophomores, 3 juniors, and 2 seniors. If a
student is selected at random to be the chairperson,
find the probability that the chairperson is a
sophomore or a junior.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 13

Addition Rule I [4]
Solution:
Let A be the event of selecting a chairperson as a
“sophomore”
6 3
P(A) = = = 0.3750
16 8

Let B be the event of selecting a chairperson as a

“junior”
3
P(B) = = 0.1875
16

Since A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint

events
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)
6 3 9
= + = = 0.5625 (or 56.25%)
16 16 16
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 14
Addition Rule I [5]
Example: A card is selected at random from a deck.
Find the probability that the card is an ace or a king.

Heart

Diamond

Spade

Club

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 15

Solution:
Let A be the event of selecting an ace
4 1
P(A) = = = 0.0769 (or 7.69%)
52 13

Let B be the even of selecting a king

4 1
P(B) = = = 0.0769 (or 7.69%)
52 13

Since A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint

events

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B)

4 4
= + = 0.1538 (or 15.38%)
52 52

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 16

Addition Rule II [1]
When two events are not mutually exclusive, you
need to add the probabilities of each of the two
events and subtract the probability of the
outcomes that are common to both events. In this
case, addition rule II can be used.

Addition Rule II: If A and B are two events that are

not mutually exclusive, then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 17

When A and B are two events that
are not mutually exclusive
If A and B are two events, then P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)
− P(A ∩ B).

Additive rule of probability

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 18
Example: A card is selected at random from a deck of 52
cards. Find the probability that it is a 6 or a diamond.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 19

Addition Rule II [2]
Solution:
Let A be the event of getting a “6”.
4 1
P(A) = = = 0.0769 (or 7.69%)
52 13

Let B be the event of getting a “diamond”.

13 1
P(B) = = = 0.2500 (or 25%)
52 4

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 20

Addition Rule II [3]
Let A ∩ B be the event of getting a “6” and a
“diamond”

1
P(A∩B) = = 0.0192 (or 1.9231%)
52
Since A and B are not mutually exclusive, so

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

4 13 1 16
= + – =
52 52 52 52
𝟒
= = 0.3077 (or 30.77%)
𝟏𝟑

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 21

Addition Rule II [4]
Example: A die is rolled. Find the probability of getting
an even number or a number less than 4.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 22

Addition Rule II [5]
Solution:
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
n(S) = 6

Let A be the event of getting an even number

A = { 2, 4, 6}, n(A) = 3
𝟑 𝟏
P(A) = = = 0.50 (or 50%)
𝟔 𝟐

Let B be the event of getting a number less than 4

B= {1, 2, 3}, n(B) = 3
𝟑 𝟏
P(B) = = = 0.50 (or 50%)
𝟔 𝟐

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 23

Addition Rule II [6]
Let A ∩ B be the event of getting an “even number”
and a “number less than 4”
A ∩ B = {2}
1
P(A∩B) = = 0.1667 or (16.67%)
6
Since A and B are not mutually exclusive, so

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

3 3 1 𝟓
= + – = = 0.8333 (or 83.3333 %)
6 6 6 𝟔

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 24

Table
A table can be used for the sample space when two
dice are rolled.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 25

Addition Rule II [7]
Example: Two dice are rolled; find the probability of
getting doubles or a sum of 8.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 26

Addition Rule II [8]
Solution:
Let A be the event of getting doubles
A = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)}, n(A) = 6
6 1
P(A) = = = 0.1667 (or 16.67%)
36 6

Let B be the event of getting a sum of 8

A = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}, n(A) = 5
5
P(B) = = 0.1389 (or 13.89%)
36

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 27

Addition Rule II [9]
Let A∩B be the event of getting a ‘doubles’ and a
‘sum of 8’
A∩B = {(4, 4)}
𝟏
P(A∩B) = = 0.0277 (or 2.7777 %)
𝟑𝟔

Since A and B are not mutually exclusive, so

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)
6 5 1 10
= + – =
36 36 36 36

5
= = 0.2777or (27.7777%)
18

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 28

Addition Rule II [10]
Let P be the event that an employee selected at
random from an oil drilling company smokes
cigarettes.

Let Q be the event that the employee selected drinks

alcoholic beverages.

Then the event P ∪ Q is the set of all employees who

either drink or smoke or do both.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 29

Example : A coin is tossed twice. What is the
probability that at least 1 head occurs?

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 30

Solution : The sample space for this experiment is
S = {HH,HT, TH, TT}
n(S) = 4

Let A be the event of getting at least 1 head

A = {HH,HT, TH}
n(A) = 3

n(A)
∴P(A) =
n(s)
𝟑
= = (0.75 or 75%)
𝟒

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 31

Example : A die is loaded in such a way that an even
number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number.
If E is the event that a number less than 4 occurs on
a single toss of the die, find P(E).

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 32

Solution
P(Even number) = 2𝑝
P(Odd number) = p
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6}
∵ 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 1
𝟏
∴p + 2p + p + 2p + p +2p = 1⇒ 9p = 1 ⇒ 𝐩 =
𝟗
𝟐
⇒ P(Even number) = 2𝑝 =
𝟗
𝟏
P(Odd number) = 𝑝 =
𝟗
E = {1, 2, 3}
P(E) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3)
𝟏 𝟐 𝟏 𝟒
= + + = (or 0.4444 or 44%)
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 33
Example A die is loaded in such a way that an even
number is twice as likely to occur as an odd number.
Let A be the event that an even number turns up
and let B be the event that a number divisible by 3
occurs. Find P(A ∪ B) and P(A ∩ B).

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 34

Solution
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
P(Even number) = 2p
P(Odd number) = p
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6}
∵ 𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 1
𝟏
∴p + 2p + p + 2p + p +2p = 1⇒ 9p = 1 ⇒ 𝐩 =
𝟗
𝟐
⇒ P(Even number) =
𝟗
𝟏
P(Odd number) =
𝟗
A = { 2, 4, 6}
𝟐 𝟐 𝟐 𝟔 𝟐
P(A) = + + = =
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟑
B = {3, 6}
𝟏 𝟐 𝟑 𝟏
P(B) = + = =
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟑

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 35

A ∩ B = {6}
𝟐
P(A ∩ B) =
𝟗
Since A and B are not mutually exclusive, so

P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

𝟔 𝟑 𝟐 𝟕
= + - = (or 0.7778 or 77.7778%)
𝟗 𝟗 𝟗 𝟗

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 36

To find P(A or B), begin by associating use of the
word “or” with addition.

 Consider whether events A and B are disjoint;

that is, can they happen at the same time?

 If they are not disjoint (that is, they can happen at

the same time), be sure to avoid (or at least
compensate for) double-counting when adding the
relevant probabilities.

If you understand the importance of not double

counting when you find P(A or B), you don’t
necessarily have to calculate the value of P(A) +
P(B) – P(A∩B)
Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 37
Errors made when applying the addition
rule
Errors made when applying the addition rule often
involve double-counting; that is, events that are
not disjoint are treated as if they were. One
indication of such an error is a total probability that
exceeds 1.

However, errors involving the addition rule do not

always cause the total probability to exceed 1.

Dr. Faisal Bukhari, Department of Data Science, PU, Lahore 38