AUGUST 2023: Issue No. 406
AUGUST 2023: Issue No. 406
Ayjaz Wani
Abstract
As an emerging power in the current multipolar global order, India can use the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) to protect, promote, and project its
geostrategic and geoeconomic interests. The SCO is also a platform for India
to reaffirm its commitment to revive and deepen its centuries-old civilisational,
spiritual, and cultural ties with other member countries. This paper explores
India’s priorities at the SCO, chiefly connectivity, counterterrorism, and
Afghanistan. It also highlights the challenges the SCO faces from the China-
Pakistan axis, and recommends ways in which New Delhi can leverage the
regional multilateral organisation to further its goals.
Attribution: Ayjaz Wani, “Decoding India’s Priorities at the SCO: Connectivity, Counterterrorism,
and Afghanistan,” ORF Occasional Paper No. 406, August 2023, Observer Research Foundation.
T
he post-Cold War era saw the emergence of several
multilateral forums, including the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation (SCO). Initially formed in 1996 as the
‘Shanghai Five’ (by China, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz
Republic, Russia, and Tajikistan) for measured collaboration
in Eurasia on regional geopolitical, geoeconomic, and geostrategic
challenges, the grouping was renamed as the SCO in 2001 following the
inclusion of Uzbekistan. In 2005, India, Pakistan, and Iran were granted
observer status, with New India and Islamabad becoming full members
in 2017. Since 2008, the SCO has inducted several countries—Azerbaijan,
Armenia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Maldives, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Myanmar—
as dialogue partners under Article 14 of its charter.1 Iran became a full
member in 2023, making the SCO the world’s largest regional organisation
with nine member states, spanning 60 percent of Eurasia, home to over
three billion people, and accounting for a quarter of the global economy.
Belarus, Mongolia, and Afghanistan currently have observer status and are
also keen to accept full membership.2
Despite its scope and promise, the SCO is marred by divergences among
Introduction
3
the grouping.3 India’s engagement with the SCO and other multilateral
platforms must be viewed under the current government’s proactive
foreign policy to preserve India’s strategic space in the rapidly changing
geopolitical and geoeconomic contexts and considerations.4 In September
2022, India assumed the SCO’s rotating presidency and hosted 134 events,
including 14 ministerial-level meetings and the SCO Summit in July 2023.5
This paper analyses India’s engagements with the SCO. It also highlights
the SCO’s challenges and recommends ways New Delhi can work to infuse
cohesion and convergence in the regional multilateral organisation to
achieve its priorities.
4
T
rade on the ancient Silk Road connected the Eastern
and Western civilisations and was a significant factor in
the development of the Eurasia region.6 In addition to
trade, this 6,400-km transcontinental route7 also enabled
intellectual and cultural exchanges, dating back to the first
century AD when Buddhism spread from India to Central Asia, China, and
Assessing the Priorities
other parts of Eurasia.8 Given its geographical location, Central Asia was
the meeting ground of different civilisations and the hub of socioeconomic
and political activities from ancient times. However, during the twentieth
century, the Anglo-Russian rivalry, and the consequent emergence of
nation-states with differing ideologies, stagnated the region’s relations
with India.9
India and the SCO:
India redesigned its ties with the region after the collapse of the
Soviet Union and the formation of the five independent Central Asian
Republics (CARs).10 India adopted a constructivist approach,11 providing
much-needed financial aid of US$10-15 million to the region and
initiating programmes like Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation
through capacity building and training programmes, study tours,
and technology transfers. India inked many bilateral and multilateral
agreements in defence and military technology, security cooperation,
connectivity, and counterterrorism with these countries.12 Indeed, New
Delhi became an SCO member to strengthen cooperation in the areas
of security, economy, and culture within the region and promote its
constructivist strategic interests in the region.13
At the 2017 Astana Summit, where India became a full member, Prime
Minister Narendra Modi defined the country’s priorities based on a shared
culture and the common future of the region. He stressed the need for
better connectivity without violating the territorial integrity and sovereignty
of the member states.14 He also emphasised cooperation in combating
terrorism, radicalisation, and the fight against illicit narcotics trade,15 as
codified in Article 1 of the SCO Charter since 1998,16 while highlighting
the importance of peace, prosperity, and stability in Afghanistan for the
region.17 At the 2018 Summit, Modi proposed the ‘SECURE’ concept to
make the SCO more connected and safer.18 The acronym SECURE stands
for ‘security of the citizens’, ‘economic development for all’, ‘connecting
5
the region’, ‘uniting the people’, ‘respect for sovereignty and integrity’,
and ‘environmental protection’. These pillars are central to India’s SCO
membership and have been repeatedly stressed at subsequent meetings
(see Table 1).
Asthana,
2017 • Cooperation and coordination to fight against
Kazakhstan
terrorism, radicalism, and illicit drugs
6
Year Place of meeting India sought cooperation for
• Reliable, resilient, and diversified supply
chains that need better connectivity
Samarkand,
2022 • Full rights to transit
Uzbekistan
• Special Working Group on innovation and
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startups
• Cross border Terrorism.
Connectivity
Poor connectivity between India and the SCO region is the biggest
hindrance to trade and development. Several connectivity projects initiated
by India and a few other SCO member countries have been marred by
Eurasia’s fractured geopolitical and volatile security situation. Divergent
interests and trust deficit among the SCO members have added to the
region’s volatility, with some countries using the organisation for their
parochial and hegemonic interests. For example, under China’s influence,
Pakistan has stonewalled India’s attempts to pursue its cultural, strategic,
and economic interests20 by not allowing any regional connectivity via its
territory. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, which
promises to meet the increased energy demands of a fast-growing Indian
economy, has been stalled since 2006.21 Conversely, China has used the
hostility between Pakistan and India for its hegemonic pursuits in the
SCO region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Additionally, the
construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), BRI’s
flagship programme that aims to build infrastructure projects within
Pakistan with Chinese investments of more than US$62 billion, violates
India’s sovereignty and integrity in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.22
7
After the Soviet Union’s collapse, China and Russia pursued ‘cooperative
hegemony’ in the newly formed Eurasian countries. Over the past three
decades, China and Russia have spread their sphere of influence in
Eurasia, with Moscow becoming the region’s security provider and Beijing
emerging as its primary investor and economic power.23 However, the BRI
is neither consultative nor transparent, and is being pursued by China
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New Delhi has also invested heavily in Chabahar Port in Iran’s Sistan
Baluchistan province to gain direct connectivity with Eurasia. The
memorandum of understanding for the port was signed in 2015.28 The port
started operations in 2018, and handled 1.8 tonnes of bulk and general
cargo between 2019 and 2021.29 By 2022, the Chabahar terminal handled
4.8 tonnes of bulk cargo, including transshipments from Bangladesh,
a Russia, India, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bulgaria, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic,
Oman, Tajikistan, and Ukraine.
8
Australia, UAE, Germany, Russia, and Brazil.30 New Delhi also invested
heavily to connect the strategic Chabahar Port with the conflict-marred
Afghanistan, investing an estimated US$3 billion in civic infrastructure,
including the 218-km long Zalrang-Delaram highway. The highway
connects Afghanistan with the Chabahar Port via Malik in Iran.31 Similarly,
Uzbekistan, a double landlocked country,b invested US$500 million in
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9
Given the immense potential of trade between South Asia and Eurasia,
some SCO member countries, especially the CARs, have also sought to
enhance connectivity with India bilaterally and multilaterally. In 2020,
New Delhi provided a US$1 billion line of credit to Central Asian countries
to develop infrastructure projects39 and even started many infrastructure
projects within the region (for example, Tajikistan’s Dushanbe-Chortut
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highway).40
All SCO countries barring China and Pakistan have generally responded
positively to India’s convergence-based institutionalisation of the
constructive approach based on shared historical and cultural connections.
At the 2021 meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, the member states stressed
India and the SCO:
During the first India-Central Asia summit in 2022, it was proposed that
the Chabahar Port and Turkmenistan’s Turkmenbashi Port be included in
the INSTC to facilitate direct trade with India.43 The participating countries
also stressed transparency, focusing on local priorities, and upholding their
sovereignty and territorial integrity.44 In April 2023, India and Central Asia
also formed a joint working group (JWG) on the Chabahar Port, and the
group’s next meeting will be held in Iran with private-sector participation.45
During the meeting, the Managing Director of Indian Ports Global Limited
demonstrated operations and facilities at the Chabahar Port. The JWG
also expressed its commitment to implement international standards for
facilitating large-scale private investments, and noted the port’s role in
delivering humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan.46
10
Uzbekistan (IMU), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), and Jamaat Ansarullah—
have repeatedly posed security threats to Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and
the Kyrgyz Republic,47 given their 2,387-km long porous border with
Afghanistan. Thousands of IMU and IJU fighters in the AfPak region48
have organised more than 19 attacks in Central Asia between 2008 and
2018, killing 138 people. Since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan
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in August 2021, ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks were sidelined from the group’s
leadership and forced to join the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISKP).49 In
2022, the ISKP and other groups carried out rocket attacks on Uzbekistan
and Tajikistan from their bases in northern Afghanistan.50 In April 2023,
Tajikistan forces killed two terrorists at the volatile Tajik-Afghan border
and seized a huge cache of automatic weapons.51 As such, the presence of
India and the SCO:
terrorists in the AfPak region is a key worry for Central Asian leaders.
The AfPak region has been a hotbed for terrorism and extremism since
the 1980s, exporting this menace to Eurasia. Terrorism emanating from
AfPak is a concern for all neighbouring countries, given its impact on
regional connectivity, security, and economic development.
Pakistan has also helped the Taliban with recruitment53 and donations for
geostrategic reasons,54 and reportedly sent over 10,000 trained terrorists
to help the group capture power in Afghanistan.55 Islamabad also adopted
a selective policy to support terrorists who helped pursue its anti-India and
anti-Afghan policy to operate freely while cracking down on others like
11
TTP.56 But the use of terrorism as a foreign policy tool and distortion of
hadith (sayings and traditions attributed to Prophet Mohammad) to propel
terrorism in Eurasia and against India has also had disastrous domestic
consequences in Pakistan. For instance, the TTP has increased its offensive
within Pakistan, killing 433 civilians and security personnel in 250 attacks
between August 2021 to August 2022 alone.57
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the US.58
12
Table 3: SCO counterterrorism
documents
Month-Year Place Declaration/ Joint Communique
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• Shanghai Convention of
June 2001 Shanghai Counterterrorism, Counter-Extremism
and Counter-Secessionism.
June 2002 St. Peterburg • Agreement over Counterterrorism
• Agreement over Counterterrorism
June 2004 Tashkent
India and the SCO:
Database
• Cooperation Guideline of
June 2006 Shanghai Counterterrorism, Counter-Extremism
and Counter-Secessionism, 2007–2009
June 2007 Bishkek • Agreement over military exercise
• Agreement on counter terrorism exercise,
August 2008 Dushanbe cracking down smuggling of weapons,
explosives and ammunition
• Cooperation Guideline of
Counterterrorism, Counter-Extremism
and Counter-Secessionism, 2010–2012;
agreement with Afghanistan over
March 2009 Tashkent Cracking Down Drugs Smuggling,
Terrorism and Organized Crimes.
13
Month-Year Place Declaration/ Joint Communique
• Establishment of the SCO
Counterterrorism Centre in Dushanbe as
a separate permanent body.
Security Centre.
14
organisations. RATS also train the security forces of SCO member
countries in counterterrorism operations, drills, and search operations.62
Between 2011 to 2015, RATS prevented 20 terror attacks, averted 650
terror-related crimes, destructed 440 terror training camps, arrested
2,700 members of extremist groups and neutralised 1,700 others across
the member countries. The SCO member countries also recovered huge
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The SCO’s working languages are Russian and Mandarin, and the
RATS database on suspected terrorists and terror organisations exposes
the centrality of Russian and Chinese interests. China has successfully
used RATS to stabilise its Western frontier province of Xinjiang. India
considers the RATS an effective mechanism but has expressed concerns
over its opacity because of language barriers. India has pushed for using
English as one of the main SCO languages for better communication on
counterterrorism,66 as terror organisations and terrorists now also use
digital and internet-based strategies for crime and anti-state activities. In
October 2021, New Delhi assumed the SCO-RATS’s directorship for one
year and tried to diversify the group’s counterterrorism agenda by calling
for synergy in RATS’ operations on cyberterrorism, digital forensics, and
ransomware.67
15
Afghanistan
Afghanistan is central to the Eurasian region’s peace, prosperity, and
socioeconomic development. The SCO created the Afghanistan Contact
Group (ACG) in 2005,c but it became defunct with the escalation of violence
in West Asia and the emergence of more violent terror outfits like ISIS.68
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Afghanistan joined the SCO as an observer in 2012 and signed the protocol
on counterterrorism with RATS in 2015.69 After Moscow changed in policy
towards the Taliban, the ACG was revived in 2017 and started playing a
role in reconciliation and peace through diplomatic channels between the
Taliban and the civilian government in Kabul. However, the trust deficit
India and the SCO:
and mistrust among SCO members helped the Taliban to adopt a more
ruthless approach towards ethnic minorities and women in Afghanistan.
The evolving situation in Afghanistan drove many SCO member countries
to use the country and the Taliban to further their own geostrategic and
geoeconomic interests against the West and each other. This worked in the
Taliban’s favour. For example, before 2021, Russia and Iran helped the
Taliban on the pretext of defeating ISIS affiliates in Afghanistan, but this
was a way to settle scores with the US.70 Without any inclusive government
in place, in February 2023, the Chinese state-owned China National
Petroleum Company (CNPC) struck a multimillion-dollar investment deal
with the Taliban to extract oil from the Amu Darya basin. Under this deal,
the CNPC will invest US$150 million in the first year and US$540 million
in the next three years.71
c The Afghanistan Contact Group was created to cooperate with the country on issues of mutual
interest, including the circulation of narcotics, organised crime, and counterterrorism.
16
Afghanistan. Divergent and antagonistic views within the SCO have only
strengthened the presence of the ISKP, al Qaeda, TTP, IMU, and IJU
terrorists in Afghanistan. Additionally, a belligerent Taliban has rescinded
their assurance of forming an inclusive government, ensuring girls’
education, and upholding women’s rights.
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India’s official position even after the Taliban’s return to power has been
for “an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process for
enduring peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan”.74 Sticking to its neutral
position, New Delhi provided US$650–750 million as humanitarian and
economic aid to Afghanistan before the Taliban took over. New Delhi also
invested US$3 billion for the welfare of the Afghan people and undertaken
India and the SCO:
17
T
he SCO is a China-created, China-dominated, and China-
led multilateral forum used by Beijing for its parochial
geostrategic, geoeconomic, and security interests in
Eurasia. Russia wanted India in the SCO to balance China’s
hegemonic dominance and belligerent pursuits. The
Russian media considers India’s presence in the Eurasian region as a
counterbalance to “growing Chinese influence and prevent the southern
part of the [Commonwealth of Independent States] CIS from turning
into a region of undivided domination of Beijing”.81 India’s membership
has lent the SCO a democratic character, since it is otherwise packed with
authoritarian leaders. The SCO has provided India with a platform to
pursue its interests in Eurasia. India has used the SCO to strengthen its
diplomatic ties and intellectual capital, and bring a progressive agenda
Achievements and
• India became the leader of the INSTC, and stressed the importance
of reliable, consultative, and transparent connectivity projects with
total rights of transit within the SCO region. India used the SCO to
persuade member countries, including the CARs and Russia, to create
multilateral and bilateral working groups on INSTC and Chabahar.
India also got a special waiver from the US’s unilateral sanctions
against Iran and avoided ‘secondary sanctions’, which could have
adversely impacted these projects. The CARs are trying to diversify
their foreign policies to minimise China’s economic and Russia’s
political influence. Given the trade potential with India, Central Asian
leaders have used the SCO platform to deepen their engagement
with New Delhi more openly. The 2022 virtual summit between
Central Asian leaders and India paved the way for the inclusion of
the Chabahar and Turkmenbashi ports into the INSTC. India and
Central Asia also formed a joint working group on the Chabahar Port
to boost regional connectivity and trade.
18
• India joined the SCO to ensure peace and security in its extended
neighbourhood, and pitched strong mechanisms of counterterrorism
under the SCO-RATS mechanism but has faced opposition from the
China-Pakistan axis. In November 2021, all SCO member countries,
barring China and Pakistan, participated in a regional summit to
discuss Afghanistan. However, despite such limitations, India has
successfully strengthened its ties with the CARs. The Central Asian
leaders skipped the Organisation of Islamic Countries conference on
Afghanistan in December 2021 hosted by Pakistan and instead came
to New Delhi for the Third India-Central Asia Dialogue to discuss
terrorism and the evolving security situation in Afghanistan.
Despite these achievements, India needs to use the SCO to push its
priorities, such as connectivity and combating the issues of extremism and
narcoterrorism for peace and prosperity in the northern borders. India
and other member countries need to remind China that the ‘Shanghai
Spirit’ should be the guiding principle for SCO. After independence,
19
the Central Asian countries also faced border ingress from a belligerent
China and were forced to cede some territories to Beijing.84 Beijing used
the economic and political instability of Central Asian countries to rectify
border treaties with Kazakhstan (1994), the Kyrgyz Republic (1996) and
Tajikistan (2002). However, in 2020, Chinese news websites republished an
article by Chinese journalist-historian Cho Yao Lu stating that the “entire
Pamir region in Tajikistan belonged to China and should be returned”.85
The report further highlighted that after the demise of the Soviet Union,
some territories were handed back to China. Similarly, another article,
titled “Why is Kazakhstan eager to return to China?,” also displayed
China’s assertive hegemonic and imperialistic efforts. The Kazakh foreign
ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador to protest against the article,
and the offending pieces were deleted.86 Indian External Affairs Minister S
Achievements and
Jaishankar also reminded his Chinese counterpart during the SCO foreign
ministers’ meeting in Goa, India, that bilateral ties were “not normal and
the Way Forward
cannot be normal if peace and tranquillity along the border areas are
disturbed”.87
20
C
oncerned by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the CARs are trying
to reduce their traditional security dependence on Moscow,
which is now increasingly seen as threatening regional
stability, territorial integrity, and sovereignty.88 Given
India’s increased economic and political standing globally,
the CARs are looking towards New Delhi as a reliable partner in the
coming decades. The SCO has provided New Delhi with a platform that
needs to be leveraged to meet its geopolitical and geostrategic goals. In
this regard, India must expedite the INSTC and Chabahar Port projects,
and policymakers must view these investments as a strategic counter to
China’s growing regional influence. India must use the India-Central Asia
Dialogue to jointly develop and strengthen its cooperation with the CARs
and Iran, making it more development and security oriented. India has
already expressed its displeasure against the China-Pakistan axis at the
SCO. Additionally, China has used the RATS mechanism for its vested
security interests in Xinjiang and has driven the platform for its hegemonic
agenda. India needs to work closely with other likeminded members to
make real progress on the SCO’s focus on counterterrorism and a peaceful
Afghanistan.
Conclusion
21
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23
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24
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25
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Endnotes
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26
64 Adriel Kasonta, “How SCO’s growing credibility reflects the emerging multipolar world
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Endnotes
on%20executing%20deals
27
welcomes_the_announcement_about_formation_of_a_team_for_intra_Afghan_
negotiations#:~:text=India%20welcomes%20the%20announcement%20by,peace%20
and%20reconciliation%20in%20Afghanistan
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Endnotes
82 Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, “Delhi Declaration of the 1st India-
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83 Harsh V Pant and Ayjaz Wani, “Walking the SCO tightrope,” Financial Express, June 13,
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84 Ayjaz Wani, “Beijing’s imperialism casts a shadow from South China Sea to the
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85 “After Ladakh, Nepal & Bhutan, China Now Claims Territory In Tajikistan,” The
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28
86 “Kazakhstan summons Chinese ambassador in protest over article, Reuters,” April
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88 Ayjaz Wani, “C+C5 Summit: Beijing’s increasing shadow over Central Asia,” Observer
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Endnotes
Images used in this paper are from Getty Images/Busà Photography (cover and page 2) and
Getty Images/Otto Stadler (back page).
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Ideas . Forums . Leadership . Impact