UNDERSTANDING
POPULATION
PROJECTIONS
COMPUTED ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION SIZES AND STRUCTURES
BASED ON THE PAST AND CURRENT SITUATION OF A POPULATION GROUP
Understanding Population Projections PAGE 1
UNDERSTANDING
POPULATION PROJECTIONS
COMPUTED ESTIMATES OF FUTURE POPULATION SIZES
AND STRUCTURES BASED ON THE PAST AND CURRENT
SITUATION OF A POPULATION GROUP
Understanding
Published by:
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Population Projections
Real Towers, Hospital Road, Upper Hill Introduction: What are population projections?
P.O. Box 30266 - 00100
Nairobi, Kenya
Population projections are com- ing, and public service needs. For
Tel: +254-20-3317583,+254-20-2911000/1, puted estimates of future popu- example, estimating future health-
lation sizes and structures based care demands allows the govern-
+254-20-3317612/22/23/51
on the past and current situation ment to plan for more facilities
Email: info@[Link]/ ibrary@[Link] of a population group. and health workers to address
directorgeneral@[Link] possible health issues.
Facebook: Kenya Stats Policymakers and planners use
X: @KNBStats these projections to estimate fu- Similarly, in education, projections
Website: [Link] ture resource and service needs help in planning the number of
of the population and plan ac- schools, teachers and infrastruc-
cordingly. Researchers need these ture needed as the population of
© 2023 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
estimates to undertake research school-going children grows, en-
activities in various fields. suring that education policies are
Published 2023 effectively implemented.
In coming up with population
projections, assumptions about As life expectancy increases, the
future fertility, mortality, and mi- projections help estimate the fu-
Some rights reserved. gration levels are used. Many users ture needs for elderly care services.
of these projections need help in For children, projections guide
This work is made available under the Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 International
(CC BY-NC 4.0) available at https:/[Link]/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This
understanding the assumptions the planning of early childhood
license allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in and limitations involved in com- education, healthcare, and child
any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only so long as the work is ing up with estimates of future
appropriately cited and attribution is given to the creator. population sizes and structures.
For better and effective utilization
Users wishing to reuse material from this work attributed to a third party such as
of the projections, it is crucial for
tables, figures or images are responsible for determining whether permission is users to grasp these assumptions.
needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder. The Population projections
risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third party owned component in
the work rests solely with the user. Uses of Population are essential for guid-
Projections ing policy formulation,
Any copyright use requests relating to this publication should be addressed to the
planning and decision
Population projections are essen- making. They help antic-
Director General, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Subscription correspondence
tial for guiding policy formulation,
may be addressed directly to the Head of Library Services through the email addresses ipate future food, water,
planning and decision making.
provided.
They help anticipate future food,
healthcare, education,
water, healthcare, education, hous- housing, and public ser-
Image source: Istock © 2023 accessed via www. KNBS / [Link] vice needs
protection services. Economic fore- • Fertility Rates: Usually ex- Types of Population
casting in Kenya benefits greatly pressed as Total Fertility Rate
from population projections. These (TFR), representing the average There are two types of populations, namely closed and open popula-
projections help predict changes number of children a woman is tions. These are described as follows;
in the labour market, which can expected to have in her lifetime. • Closed Population: A population where immigration and emigra-
affect employment rates, wages, tion are zero, such as the global population, with growth depen-
and economic growth. • Mortality Rates: Includes life dent solely on natural increase (births minus deaths).
expectancy and death rates by
This information is crucial for ad- age and sex. • Open Population: A population that includes migration (both inter-
dressing youth unemployment national and internal), with growth determined by natural increase
and planning vocational training • Migration: The movement of and net migration.
programs. Additionally, under- people across regions and coun-
standing shifts in population size tries.
and age distribution helps busi- The Demographic Balancing Equation
nesses anticipate consumer be- The difference between the num-
haviour and demand, aiding in ber of births and deaths results in This equation is fundamental to understanding population change:
long-term investment decisions either a natural increase or de- Population Change=(Births−Deaths) +(Immigrants−Emigrants)
in sectors like agriculture, manu- crease of the population size. The Expressed as:
facturing, and services. difference between in-migration
and out-migration is known as net Pt=P0+(B−D) +(I−E)
Environmental planning in Kenya migration which can either be pos-
is closely linked to population pro- itive or negative net migration. Where P0 is the initial population (base population), Pt is the population
jections. Urban planners use pro- after time t, B is births, D is deaths, I is immigrants, and E is emigrants.
jections to develop sustainable cit-
ies and communities, particularly
in rapidly growing urban areas like
Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu.
Population projection
Key Components of information is crucial
for addressing youth un-
Population Projections employment and plan-
Production of population projec- ning vocational training
tions involves several steps: collect- programs. Additionally,
ing and checking data, making understanding shifts
necessary adjustments, developing in population size and
projection assumptions, entering
age distribution helps
data into projection software, cal-
culating projections, and reviewing
businesses anticipate
the outputs. The key inputs needed consumer behaviour
to produce population projections and demand, aiding in
include: long-term investment
• Base Population: The starting decisions in sectors like
point, typically derived from the agriculture, manufac-
most recent census. turing, and services
PAGE 6 Understanding Population Projections Understanding Population Projections PAGE 7
Methodologies for Population Projections Based on the 2019 Census
Population Projections
Projections produced using the Step two focused on county-level
There are two primary methods for pro- 2019 census results used the co- projections. Here, county-specif-
jecting population sizes: hort-component method. The ic data on fertility, mortality, and
projection process itself involved net migration were incorporated.
1. Extrapolation Method (Ratio Meth- three steps. In step one, nation- Age groups were conveniently
od): This simpler method is used al-level projections were created categorized into 5-year intervals
when comprehensive data on births, using established methods that for easier analysis.
deaths and migration are unavail- consider national fertility and
able. It assumes a constant growth mortality data. A unique “projection frame was
rate between the base year and the then created for each county.
target year. The assumption was zero net in- This frame included details like
2. Cohort-Component Method: This ternational migration at the na- the initial age and sex distribu-
detailed method examines the sep- tional level. This initial projection tion of the population, mortali-
arate components of population set the stage for the next step. ty rates, fertility rates, estimated
change namely, fertility, mortality
and migration. It requires the follow-
ing specific data
• Fertility Data: Total Fertility Rates Projections are updated by applying survival ratios
(TFR), Age-Specific Fertility Rates and migration rates, followed by calculating births
(ASFR), and sex ratios at birth. using ASFRs and sex ratios at birth. The cohort-com-
• Mortality Data: Age-Specific
ponent method is more accurate in predicting future
Death Rates (ASDR), life expectan-
cies at birth, and survival ratios. population sizes compared to the extrapolation
• Migration Data: Net migration method
rates by age and sex.
The cohort-component method groups
the base population by age and sex.
Each age-sex cohort is projected for-
ward by applying assumptions about
fertility, mortality, and migration. This
method accounts for internal migra-
tion, which is particularly significant at
the sub-national level.
Projections are updated by applying
survival ratios and migration rates, fol-
lowed by calculating births using ASFRs
and sex ratios at birth. The cohort-com-
ponent method is more accurate in
predicting future population sizes com-
pared to the extrapolation method.
PAGE 8 Understanding Population Projections Understanding Population Projections PAGE 9
70 Years
Maximum life net migration, and the calculated number of births,
expectancy for deaths, and net migrants based on these parame-
males assumed ters. The final step refined the county projections
by the logistic to ensure consistency with the national picture.
function, and 75 Adjustments were made to the projected county
years for females births and deaths to align them with the national
totals. Net migration estimates were also carefully
reviewed to achieve consistency across counties.
This ensured that the number of people moving into
a county(in-migrants) balances out with the number
moving out (out-migrants). The final county projec-
tions provided a more nuanced picture, reflecting
national trends while acknowledging the unique dy-
namics of each county based on fertility, mortality,
and migration patterns.
It’s important to remember that the accuracy of
these projections hinged on the quality of data on
fertility, mortality, and migration. Unexpected events
like pandemics or economic crises can significantly
impact these rates, making long-term projections
less precise. However, the cohort-component meth-
od remains a valuable tool for planning purposes,
offering policymakers and businesses valuable in-
sights into future population trends.
Assumptions made for 2019 KPHC
projections
Kenya’s population projections relied on specific
assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortal-
ity, and migration. Fertility projections were based
on historical data from four past national censuses
(2019, 2009, 1999 and 1989) and utilized a logistic
function (PASEX TFR_ProjLogistic ) to predict a con-
tinued decline in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) until 2045.
This function is bounded by a minimum TFR of 2.1
(replacement level) and a maximum of 8.0 (histori-
The accuracy of these projections hinged on the cally observed national maximum). A similar logistic
quality of data on fertility, mortality, and migration. function approach was used at the county level to
Unexpected events like pandemics or economic estimate future TFRs for individual counties. Mortal-
crises can significantly impact these rates, making ity projections also employed a logistic function, but
long-term projections less precise
PAGE 10 Understanding Population Projections Understanding Population Projections PAGE 11
with a focus on life expectancy. tercensal growth rate, calculated
The function assumes a gradu- using the formula shown below
al increase in life expectancy for provides a snapshot of popula-
both males and females, reaching tion change between census pe-
a maximum of 70 years for males riods. An analysis at the county
and 75 years for females. Migra- level reveals significant variations
tion patterns are a more complex in growth rates.
factor. Unlike fertility and mortal-
ity, migration can occur multiple Narok, Samburu, and Wajir coun-
times throughout a person’s life. ties are expected to experience
The projections assumed negligi- the highest growth, with project-
ble net international migration, ed intercensal rates exceeding
essentially balancing immigra- 2.5%. This translates to potential
tion and emigration. population increases by 2030,
reaching 1.55 million, 0.42 mil-
However, internal migration with- lion, and 1.04 million respectively.
in Kenya was considered by incor-
porating average net migration Mombasa, Nakuru, Kisumu, and
figures from past censuses at the Nairobi City also show moderate
county level. These average net growth projections, with rates
migration rates were assumed to ranging from 1.5% to 2%. This
remain constant throughout the could lead to populations of 1.50
projection period. million, 2.69 million, 1.39 million,
and 5.26 million in these counties
Peak into Kenya’s by 2030.
Future Population Size Conversely, Nyamira, Vihiga, and
Kenya’s population is projected Kirinyaga counties exhibit the
to grow steadily, with estimates slowest growth trends, with in-
suggesting it will reach 57.8 mil- tercensal rates falling below 1%.
lion by 2030. This represents an Their projected populations by
intercensal growth rate of 1.69% 2030 are estimated to be 0.682
compared to the 48.8 million million, 0.660 million, and 0.690
people recorded in 2020. The in- million, respectively.
Projected intercensal rates in Narok, Sambu-
ru, and Wajir counties, which are expected
to experience the highest growth. This trans-
2.5% lates to potential population increases by
2030, reaching 1.55 million, 0.42 million, and
1.04 million respectively
PAGE 12 Understanding Population Projections Understanding Population Projections PAGE 13
Population Population
County 2020 2030 Growth County 2020 2030 Growth
Rate(%) Rate(%)
Kenya 48,817,537 57,811,161 1.69 24 Siaya 1,002,932 1,195,671 1.76
1 Narok 1,177,718 1,546,071 2.72 25 Nyandarua 657,159 783,354 1.76
2 Samburu 320,308 419,849 2.71 26 Trans-Nzoia 1,010,265 1,198,602 1.71
3 Wajir 803,882 1,037,827 2.55 27 Kakamega 1,897,240 2,237,189 1.65
4 Tana River 325,873 420,374 2.55 28 Kisumu 1,186,160 1,389,489 1.58
5 Turkana 946,464 1,216,202 2.51 29 Nairobi 4,515,607 5,264,721 1.53
6 Mandera 887,280 1,139,779 2.50 30 Nandi 905,629 1,054,270 1.52
7 Lamu 154,774 198,455 2.49 31 Bungoma 1,700,411 1,969,526 1.47
8 Kwale 879,076 1,112,022 2.35 32 Elgeyo-Marakwet 474,419 541,933 1.33
9 Marsabit 479,579 604,075 2.31 33 Bomet 901,539 1,021,371 1.25
10 Migori 1,147,197 1,444,465 2.30 34 Kericho 917,217 1,037,078 1.23
11 West Pokot 631,122 791,958 2.27 35 Meru 1,565,421 1,765,151 1.20
12 Isiolo 294,104 368,938 2.27 36 Taita Taveta 350,614 394,539 1.18
13 Kajiado 1,178,759 1,475,089 2.24 37 Kitui 1,186,046 1,327,464 1.13
14 Garissa 861,201 1,075,926 2.23 38 Makueni 1,007,527 1,121,214 1.07
15 Mombasa 1,228,079 1,504,530 2.03 39 Murang’a 1,076,540 1,193,960 1.04
16 Baringo 686,717 840,367 2.02 40 Tharaka-Nithi 403,102 445,537 1.00
17 Nakuru 2,201,828 2,689,907 2.00 41 Nyeri 809,599 894,578 1.00
18 Laikipia 528,509 639,451 1.91 42 Embu 628,527 692,132 0.96
19 Uasin-Gishu 1,183,030 1,428,167 1.88 43 Machakos 1,441,719 1,584,422 0.94
20 Homa-Bay 1,161,873 1,401,509 1.88 44 Kisii 1,306,711 1,423,487 0.86
21 Kiambu 2,500,990 3,006,176 1.84 45 Kirinyaga 637,139 690,207 0.80
22 Kilifi 1,488,572 1,785,800 1.82 46 Vihiga 609,926 660,333 0.79
23 Busia 913,595 1,095,354 1.81 47 Nyamira 645,541 682,625 0.56
PAGE 14 Understanding Population Projections Understanding Population Projections PAGE 15
PAGE 16 Understanding Population Projections
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Real Towers, Upper Hill
P.O. Box 30266 - 00100 Nairobi, Kenya
Tel: +254-20-3317583 / +254-20-3317612 / +254-20-3317586
Email: info@[Link] / directorgeneral@[Link] / library@[Link]
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