University of Raparin

Presidency of University of Raparin

Civil Engineering Department

Subject name:

Water Supply & Sewerage

Lecture 2

Fourth class:
Lectrure: Asst Prof. Dr. Rawshan Othman & Mr. Osama Khasraw
[Link]@[Link] , [Link]@[Link]
 Lecture 2
Water Demand & Population Forecasting

Outline:
• Water Demand

• Design Period

• Population Forecasting

• Water Consumption

• Variation in Rate in Water Consumption

• Fire Fighting Demand

2
Water Demand

Water Demand: refers to the total quantity of water required by a population or a

specific area for various uses, including domestic, industrial, commercial,
agricultural, and public purposes.

Accurate water demand estimation is crucial for designing and managing water
supply systems, ensuring that there is sufficient water to meet both current and
future needs.

Water demand for a domestic use calculated by, daily consumption per capita
multiply by population

Domestic water demand = LPCD * population

the unit of water demand is (m3/day)

3
Main steps to calculate a Water Demand for a Community

1. Estimate Population: Determine the current population and use population

forecasting methods to project the future population over the design period.
2. Determine Per Capita Water Demand: Use historical data or standards (e.g. 135-
200 liters per capita per day (LPCD)) to estimate domestic demand per person.
3. Calculate Total Domestic Demand:
Domestic Demand= Per Capita Demand *Population

4. Include Other Water Uses: Commercial/Industrial/Public Uses: Estimate water

usage for these sectors based on local data or guidelines.
5. Adjust for Peak Demand: Apply a peak factor to account for maximum daily or
hourly usage. For example, peak daily demand may be 1.8 to 2 times the average
daily demand.
6. Include Losses and Leakage: Add distribution losses, typically 10-20%, to account
for system inefficiencies and leakage.
7. Calculate Total Water Demand:
Total Water Demand = (Domestic Demand + Other Uses) * Peak Factor + Losses
4
.
Design period
Design period is the estimated duration over which a particular infrastructure or
system (such as water supply, sewage systems, transportation networks, etc.) is
planned to operate effectively to meet anticipated demands.

Table. 1: Design period for water works

5
Population Forecasting:
Population forecasting: is the method of predicting future population growth in a
given area over a specified time period.

Accurate population forecasting is crucial for planning infrastructures, but it is difficult

to estimate the population growth due to economic and social factors involved.

However, a number of methods have been used for forecasting population.

1. Arithmetic Method
2. Uniform (Geometric) Percentage Method
3. Curvilinear (Graphical) Method
4. Logistic Curve Method
5. Declining Growth Method
6. Ratio Method
7. Incremental Increase Method
6
 Table 2: Estimated world and regional populations at various dates (in millions)
Year World Africa Asia Europe Latin America Northern America Oceania
70,000 BC < 0.015
10,000 BC 1
9000 BC 3
8000 BC 5
7000 BC 7
6000 BC 10
5000 BC 15
4000 BC 20
3000 BC 25
2000 BC 35
1000 BC 50
500 BC 100
AD 1 200
1000 310
1750 791 106 502 163 16 2 2
1800 978 107 635 203 24 7 2
1850 1,262 111 809 276 38 26 2
1900 1,650 133 947 408 74 82 6
1950 2,519 221 1,398 547 167 172 12.8
1955 2,756 247 1,542 575 191 187 14.3
1960 2,982 277 1,674 601 209 204 15.9
1965 3,335 314 1,899 634 250 219 17.6
1970 3,692 357 2,143 656 285 232 19.4
1975 4,068 408 2,397 675 322 243 21.5
1980 4,435 470 2,632 692 361 256 22.8
1985 4,831 542 2,887 706 401 269 24.7
1990 5,263 622 3,168 721 441 283 26.7
1995 5,674 707 3,430 727 481 299 28.9
2000 6,070 796 3,680 728 520 316 31.0
2005 6,454 888 3,917 725 558 332 32.9
 Fig. 1: Population growth and forecast

Table 3: UN 2008 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions)

Methods of Population Forecasting
1. ARITHMETIC INCREASE METHOD

Concept: this method of forecasting is based upon the hypothesis that the rate of
increase is constant, it is expressed as

𝑑𝑝 𝑃2 − 𝑃1 ∆𝑝
Formula: =K so, K= =
𝑑𝑡 𝑡2 −𝑡1 ∆𝑡

𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃0 + Kt
Where :
𝑃𝑡 is estimated future population
𝑃0 is present population
K is constant rate of increase
t is time in (year)

Application: Suitable for areas with steady, linear growth. Ideal for small towns or
rural areas where growth rates are stable.

9
Example 1: determine the population in 2030 by using arithmetic increase method.

Given:
Year Population
Solution: 1980 62000
1990 74000
𝑃2 − 𝑃1 2000 85000
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃0 + Kt , K= 𝑡2 −𝑡1
2010 98000
74000−62000 2020 110000
𝐾1 = 1990−1980
= 1200
2030 ?
85000−74000
𝐾2 = 2000−1990
= 1100

𝐾3 = 1300 Population Growth

140000
120000
𝐾4 = 1200
100000
80000
𝐾𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 1200
60000
40000
𝑃2030 = 110,000 + (1200*(2030-2020)
20000
0
𝑃2030 = 122,000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
10
Methods of Population Forecasting
2. UNIFORM (GEOMETRIC) PERCENTAGE METHOD
Concept: the hypothesis of constant percentage or geometric rate assumes that the rate of
increase is proportional to population, it can be written as:
𝑑𝑝 𝑝2 1 𝑡2
= KP so, ‫𝑝׬‬1 𝑑𝑝 = 𝐾. ‫𝑡׬‬1 𝑑𝑡
𝑑𝑡 𝑃

ln P 2 = ln P1 + K ( t 2 − t 1 )
𝑙𝑛𝑃2 −𝑙𝑛𝑃1
Where : K= 𝑡2 −𝑡1

𝑃2 is estimated future population

𝑃1 is present population
K is constant rate of increase
t is time in (year)
This method is more appropriate for areas with rapid growth, It tends to give higher
population estimates than the arithmetic method in cases of rapid growth.
11
Example 2: determine the population in 2030 by using uniform method.

Given:
Year Population
Solution: 1980 62000
1990 74000
ln P 2 = ln P1 + K ( t 2 − t 1 ) 2000 85000
𝑙𝑛𝑃2 −𝑙𝑛𝑃1 2010 98000
K= 2020 11000
𝑡2 −𝑡1

ln(74000)−ln(62000) 2030 ?
𝐾1 = 1990−1980
= 0.0177
ln(85000)−ln(74000)
𝐾2 = 2000−1990
= 0.0139

𝐾3 = 0.0142

𝐾4 = 0.0116

𝐾𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 0.0144

ln(𝑃2030 ) = ln(110,000) + (0.0144 *10) = 11.7522

𝑃2030 = 127,037
12
Methods of Population Forecasting
3. CURVILINEAR (GRAPHICAL) METHOD

Curvilinear method This technique involves the graphical projection of the past
population growth curve. The commonly used variant of this method includes
comparison of the projected growth to that of other cities of larger size. The cities
chosen for the comparison should be as similar as possible to the city being studied.
Geographical proximity, likeness of economic base, access to similar transportation
systems, and other such factors should be considered.

As an example, in Fig. 2, city A, the city being studied, is plotted up to 1970, the year in
which its population was 51,000. City B reached 51,000 in 1930, and its curve is
plotted from 1930 on; similarly curves are drawn for cities C, D, and E from the years
in which they reached A's 1970 population. A's curve can then be continued, allowing it
to be influenced by the rates of growth of the larger cities. So far as possible the larger
cities chosen should reflect conditions as they are in the city being studied.

13
Fig. 2: curvilinear method of predicting population. The dashed line is the
forecast for city A scales A, B, C, D, & E apply to the corresponding cities
14
Methods of Population Forecasting
4. LOGISTIC CURVE METHOD
This method assumes that the growth, as a function of time, follows some logical
mathematical relationship. The population tends to grow according to logistic or S-shaped
curve, starting with a low rate, followed by a high rate and the progressively low rate to a
saturation population. This saturation population is the final limit to growth which is
limited by economic opportunities and other conditions.

The logistic curve form is 𝑃𝑠

𝑃t =
1 + 𝑒𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡

where Pt = population expected at the end of a time period t years from the year taken as origin
𝑃𝑠 = saturation population of the community
𝑎 and 𝑏= constants
The constants are obtained by the following equations:

𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃2 1 𝑃0(𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃1)
2𝑃0𝑃1𝑃2 – 𝑃12 𝑃0 + 𝑃2 ,, 𝑎 = 𝑙𝑛 ,, 𝑏 = 𝑙𝑛
𝑃𝑠 = 𝑃2 𝑛 𝑃1(𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃𝑜 )
𝑃0𝑃2 − 𝑃12

where n = time interval between successive censuses. ∆𝑡 = (last year - first year)
15
Example 3: Estimate populations of a city in 2025 by using logistic method, past records are

Given data:
Note Time Population Note

to 1990 6600 P0
t1 2000 19300 P1
t2 2010 39400 P2
tf 2025 ? Pf
Solution:
Note: 𝑡2 - 𝑡1 should be equal to 𝑡1 - 𝑡0
2
2𝑃0𝑃1𝑃2 – 𝑃1 𝑃0 + 𝑃2
𝑃𝑠 =
𝑃0 𝑃2 − 𝑃12

2 6600 19300 39400 – 19300 2 6600 + 39400 −7.096996 ∗ 10 12

= = = 63113
6600 ∗ 39400 − 19300 2 −112450000
𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃2 63112 − 39400
𝑎 = 𝑙𝑛 = ln = ln 0.602 = −0.5078
𝑃2 39400
1 𝑃0(𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃1) 1 6600(63112 − 19300)
𝑏 = 𝑙𝑛 = 𝑙𝑛
𝑛 𝑃1(𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃𝑜) 10 19300(63112 − 6600) 16
Solution: 1 6600 43812
b= ln = 0.1 ∗ ln 0.265 = −0.133
10 19300 56512
∆𝑡 = 2025 − 1990 = 35

𝑃𝑠 63113 63112 63113

𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃2025 = = =
1 + 𝑒𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡 1 + 𝑒−0.5078−(0.133∗35) 1 + 𝑒 −5.163 1.0057
𝑃2025 = 62755
Population forecasting
70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1990 2000 2010 2025

Figure 3: Population forecasting by logistic curve method

 Methods of Population Forecasting
5. DECLINING GROWTH METHOD
This is a decreasing rate of increase on the basis that the growth rate is a function of its
population deficit. Mathematically it is given as
dp
= kd ( ps − p)
dt
Where
Ps=saturation population
Kd = growth constant
assume value integration of the above equation gives
p2 t2
dp ps − p2
 ps − p
= Kd  dt − ln
p s − p1
= k d (t 2 − t 1 )
p1 t1

Rearranging
1 𝑃 −𝑃
𝐾𝑑 =- 𝑡 ln 𝑃𝑠−𝑃2
2 −𝑡1 𝑠 1
The future population is
P = 𝑃𝑜 + (𝑃𝑠 - 𝑃𝑜 )(1-𝑒 −𝐾𝑑∗∆𝑡 )
𝑃𝑜 is the population of the base year
 Example 4: Estimate populations of a city in 2025 by using declining growth method,
past records are

Note Time Population Note

to 1990 6600 P0
t1 2000 19300 P1
t2 2010 39400 P2
tf 2025 ? Pf
2
Solution: 2𝑃0𝑃1𝑃2 – 𝑃1 𝑃0 + 𝑃2
𝑃𝑠 =
𝑃0 𝑃2 − 𝑃12

2 6600 19300 39400 – 19300 2 6600 + 39400 −7.096996 ∗ 10 12

= = = 63113
6600 ∗ 39400 − 19300 2 −112450000

1 𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃2
𝐾𝑑 = − ln
t2 – t1 𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃1
 1 63112 − 39400 23712
𝐾𝑑 = − 𝑙𝑛 = −0.1 ln = −0.1 𝑙𝑛 0.541 = 0.0614
10 63112 − 19300 43812

P = P0 + Ps − P0 1 − e−Kd∗∆t

𝑷 𝟐 𝟎 𝟐 𝟓 = 6600 + 63112 − 6600 (1 − 𝑒 −0.0614∗35 )

= 6600 + 56512 1 − 0.1166 = 39400 + (23712)(0.8834) = 56523

Population forecasting
60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1990 2000 2010 2025
1990 2000 2010 2025

Figure 4: Population forecasting by declining growth method

 Methods of Population Forecasting
6. Ratio method
This method is based on the fact that the population of city has direct relation to the
population of province or region etc.
Pf P
= i = K
P' f P' i

Where
• Pf =future population of the province
• P'f = future population of the city

• Pi = past population of the province

• P'i = past population of the city

Example 5: Estimate populations of a city in 2010 by using ratio method, past records are

Year Population of city Population of province

1980 264150 742350

1990 310310 823470
2000 359000 892000
2010 ? ?
Solution:

The population of province should be estimated using one of the statistical method which
is suitable according to the population in the past.

First the population of the province estimated to be 1,004,400

Pf P
K = = i
P' f P' i
 742350 823470 892000
𝐾1 = 264150 = 2.81 𝐾2 = 310310 = 2.65 𝐾3 = 359000 = 2.48

(𝐾1 −𝐾2 )+(𝐾2 −𝐾3)

𝐾4 = 𝐾3 - [ 2
] = 2.315

𝑃𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑎𝑡 2010 1,004,400

𝑃𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑎𝑡 2010 = 𝐾4
= 2.315
= 433866

Population forecast
1200000

1000000

800000

600000

400000

200000

0
1980 1990 2000 2010
city province

Figure 5: Population forecasting by ratio method

 Methods of Population Forecasting
7. INCREMENTAL INCREASE METHOD (METHOD OF VARYING INCREMENT)
In this technique, the average of the increase in the population is taken as per arithmetic
method and to this, is added the average of the net incremental increase, one for every future
decade whose population figure is to be estimated.
In this method, a progressive increasing or decreasing rate rather than constant rate is
adopted.
Mathematically the hypothesis may be expressed as:
n(n+1)
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃𝑜 + n*k + 2
∗𝑎

Where
𝑃𝑡 is population at some time in the future
𝑃𝑜 : present or initial population
k : rate of increase for each decade
a: rate of change in increase for each decade
n: period of projection in decades
Example 6: The population of a town as per the census records are given below for the
years 1945 to 2005. Assuming that the scheme of water supply will commence to function
from 2010. it is required to estimate the population after 30 years, i.e. in 2040 and also,
the intermediate population ie. 15 years after 2010.

Year Population
1945 40185
1955 44522
1965 60395
1975 75614
1985 98886
1995 124230
2005 158800

Note: Use Incremental Increase Method

Solution:

Year Population Increase (k) incremental increase (a)

1945 40185 - -
1955 44522 4337 -
1965 60395 15873 11536
1975 75614 15219 -654
1985 98886 23272 8053
1995 124230 25344 2072
2005 158800 34570 9226
Total 118615 30233
Average 19769 6047

n(n+1)
𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃𝑜 + n*k + 2
∗𝑎

2(2+1)
𝑃2025 = 158800+ 2*19769 + 2
∗ 6047 = 216479 capita

3.5(3.5+1)
𝑃2040 = 158800+ 3.5*19769 + 2
∗ 6047 = 275612 capita
 POPULATION GROWTH
300000

250000

200000
1945

150000 1955
1965
1975
100000 1985
1995

50000 2005
2025
2040
0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Figure 6: Population forecasting by Incremental Increase Method

27
Example 7: The population of a town as per the census records are given below for the
years 1970 to 2010. it is required to estimate the population after 30 years, i.e. in 2040,
use declining growth method & incremental increase method

𝑡𝑜 Year Population 𝑃𝑜
1970 350,000
1980 385,000
𝑡1 𝑃1
1990 430,000
2000 490,000
𝑡2 𝑃2
2010 580,000

Solution:

First by using declining growth method.

2
2𝑃0𝑃1𝑃2 – 𝑃1 𝑃0 + 𝑃2
𝑃𝑠 =
𝑃0 𝑃2 − 𝑃12
((2∗350,000∗430,000∗580,000)−430,0002 (350,000+580,000)
𝑃𝑠 = =
350,000∗580,000−430,0002
 1 63112 − 39400 23712
𝐾𝑑 = − 𝑙𝑛 = −0.1 ln = −0.1 𝑙𝑛 0.541 = 0.0614
10 63112 − 19300 43812

P = P0 + Ps − P0 1 − e−Kd∗∆t

𝑷 𝟐 𝟎 𝟐 𝟓 = 6600 + 63112 − 6600 (1 − 𝑒 −0.0614∗35 )

= 6600 + 56512 1 − 0.1166 = 39400 + (23712)(0.8834) = 56523

Population forecasting
60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
1990 2000 2010 2025
1990 2000 2010 2025

Figure 4: Population forecasting by declining growth method

Water Consumption
Water consumption: refers to the amount of water used by individuals, communities,
industries, and public services.

Key Factors Affecting Water Consumption:

• Population Size: Larger populations require more water for domestic, industrial,
and public uses.
• Economic Activities: Industrial and agricultural activities increase water
consumption based on economic growth.
• Climate Conditions: Hotter climates and low rainfall increase the demand for
cooling and irrigation.
• Living Standards: Higher living standards lead to greater water use for household
amenities and comforts.
• Water Pricing: Higher water prices encourage conservation and reduce wastage.

30
Water Consumption
Types of water consumers:
• Residential (Domestic): It consists of the amount of water required for living
activities in the houses (buildings) such as drinking, cooking, washing etc. The amount
estimated a 40 % to 60 % of the total amount.

Table 4: Detail of water requirement for domestic purpose

31
Water Consumption
Types of water consumers:
• Commercial and Institutional: Includes water usage in schools, hospitals, hotels,
restaurants, offices, etc. The amount of water used for private business is ranged from
15 % to 25 %of the total amount.

• Industrial: The amount of water required for industries and factories which connected
with water supply system. The estimated amount varies from 10 % to 20 % of the total
amount.

• Public Use: Water for parks, firefighting, street cleaning, etc. The percentage of water
used for public purposes typically ranges from 5% to 10% of the total water
consumption in most urban water supply systems.

• Losses and Wastage: Leaks in the system, illegal connections, etc, the estimated
amount is 10 % to 20 %.

32
Water Consumption
PER CAPITA WATER DEMAND
It means the amount of water required by one person. It can be only for domestic use or
as a total amount needed by the city. For instance, if a city requires 24000 m3/d and
number of population is 75000.
The amount of water required by one person = 24000 /75000= 0.32 m3/person
= 320 LPCD
Table 5: Projected consumption of water for various
purposes in year 2000 in USA
Use LPCD % of total
Domestic 300 44
Industrial 160 24
Commercial 100 15
Public 60 9
Loss and waste 50 8
Total 670 100
33
VARIATION IN RATE IN WATER CONSUMPTION
• Water consumption is not constant during the days of the year; there are wide
variation in the quantity of water needed during different days, weeks, months and
seasons.

Understanding these variations is crucial for designing efficient water supply

systems and ensuring that the supply meets fluctuating demands.

1. Seasonal or monthly variations: Water consumption tends to increase during

summer. People take bath more frequently. Similarly clothes washing is also
frequent in summer season. In summer season the average rate of demand of
water is usually 30 to 40 percent above the annual average rate of demand of
water. More water is required for watering lawns in summer. In winters, these
activities reduce.

June, July High consumption

Dec, Jan Low consumption

34
VARIATION IN RATE IN WATER CONSUMPTION
2. Daily variations: On holidays, like Sunday, most of the commercial areas and
industries are closed. Hence water consumption reduces on holidays as compared
to a normal working day The maximum rate of demand of water on the day of
maximum use of water (or the maximum day for the year) is generally taken as
180% of the annual average daily demand of water per head.

3. Hourly variations: Water consumption keeps on changing thorough out the day.
In the morning, when the day’s activities start; when people go to offices and
children go to schools, the water consumption touches its peak. Thereafter, the
consumption reduces. In the evening, another peak is usually observed, however,
it not so pronounced as it is in the morning. The maximum hourly demand of
water per head is generally taken as 150% of the average hourly demand of water
per head on the day of maximum use of water (or the maximum day for the
year). Fig. 5 shows this hourly variation during the day

35
VARIATION IN RATE IN WATER CONSUMPTION

Figure 5: Hourly variation during the day

36
VARIATION IN RATE IN WATER CONSUMPTION

For designing water treatment-plant, maximum daily demand is used.

Maximum daily demand (m3/d or LPCD) = Average daily demand * (180%-200%)

For designing water distribution system

Maximum daily demand= average daily demand(180% -200%) * 150%
Minimum daily demand (m3/d or LPCD) = Average daily demand * 50%

Some specifications for designing water distribution systems:

For small size cities, use average daily demand * 300%
For medium size cities, use average daily demand * 250%
For large size cities, use average daily demand * 200%

37
Example 7: A city with a present population of 58000 persons used a total of 9,526,500 m3
of water during the last 12 months. On the maximum day during that period 42,000,000
liters were used. Estimate the average and maximum daily flows in m3/day to be expected
in 10 years when the population is estimated to be 72500.

Solution:
9526500
Average daily demand = = 0.45 m3/day *1000 = 450 LPCD
58000∗365
42,000,000
Maximum daily demand = = 724 LPCD
58000

Maximum daily demand based on the design criteria = 1.8 * Average daily demand
Maximum daily demand = 810 LPCD

To estimate the future we should select the critical result which is (810 LPCD).
Average daily demand after 10 years = 0.45 * 7500 = 32626 m3/day
Maximum daily demand after 10 years = 0.81 * 72500 = 58725 m3/day
Example 8: A community's population is estimated to be 35000, 20 years from now. The
present population is 28000 and the present maximum water consumption is 16000 m3
/day. The existing water treatment plant has a design capacity of 19000 m3/day. Assuming
an arithmetic rate of population growth, determine in what year the plant will reach design
capacity.

Solution:
16000
Designed daily demand (maximum daily demand) = = 0.571 m3/Capita/day
28000
Available quantity in water treatment plant = Existing water treatment plant capacity -
Present required water = 19000 − 16000 =3000 m3/day
3000
Extra population could be supplied with water = 0.571 = 5254 person

In arithmetic method 𝑃𝑡 = 𝑃0 + Kt
𝑃2 − 𝑃1 35000−28000
K= K= = 350
𝑡2 −𝑡1 20−0
(28000+5254) = 28000* 350t t = 15 years

The plant reach the maximum capacity in 15 years from now.

Example 9: From the available census data from 1941-2011, determine population in 2021
using logistic curve method. Additionally, calculate minimum & maximum water demand
(m3/d) in 2021. Assume average daily demand is 280 LPCD. Suppose 1954, 1982 & 2010
is 𝑡𝑜 𝑡1 & 𝑡2 respectively.
Time Population
1941 8202
1954 11885
1962 13333
1972 18335
1982 24769
1993 33082
2000 34204
2010 35779
𝑃𝑠
Solution: 𝑃t =
1 + 𝑒𝑎+𝑏∆𝑡

𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃2 1 𝑃0(𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃1)
2𝑃0𝑃1𝑃2 – 𝑃12 𝑃0 + 𝑃2 𝑎 = 𝑙𝑛 𝑏 = 𝑙𝑛
𝑃𝑠 = 𝑃2 𝑛 𝑃1(𝑃𝑠 − 𝑃𝑜 )
𝑃0𝑃2 − 𝑃12
 (2∗11885∗24769∗35779− 24769 2 (11885+35779)
𝑃𝑠 = = 43431.314 = 43432 person
11885∗35779− 24769 2

43432−35779 1 11885(43432−24769
a = ln(
35779
) = −1.54 , b = (28)ln ( 43432−11885
) = -0.045

∆t = 2021-1954 = 67 years.

43432
𝑃2021 = = 42980 person
1+𝑒 −1.54+(−0.045∗67)

−3
𝑚3
Average water demand in 2021 = 280 * 42980 *10 * 365 = 4,392,556
year

𝑚3
Maximum water demand in 2021 = 1.8* 4392556 = 7,906,601
year

𝑚3
Minimum water demand in 2021 = 0.5* 4392556 = 2,196,278
year
Fire Fighting Demand
It is the quantity of water required for fire-fighting purposes. In thickly populated and
industrial areas, fires may break out and may result in severe damages if not controlled
effectively. As such for almost all the big and medium size towns or cities provision
should be made in the water supply schemes for meeting the demand of water for fire-
fighting purposes

The necessary quantity of water required for fire-fighting purposes should be easily
available and always kept stored in the storage reservoir. The fire hydrants are usually
fitted in the water mains at a distance of not more than about 150 meters.

Generally, for a moderate fire break out three jet streams are simultaneously thrown
from each hydrant. The discharge of each stream should be about 1100 l/min. Thus, in
a town or city having a population of say 3,000,000, if it is assumed that four fires may
break out in a day and each fire may last for say 3 hours, then the total quantity of
water required to meet the fire demand

𝑄𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 = 3 × 1100 × 60 × 3 × 4 = 2,376,000 liters per day

42
Fire Fighting
Fire demand formula

1. Q = 3.86 𝑃 (1-0.01 𝑃 ) (SI units)

where
• Q discharge, m³/min
• P population in thousands
The required flow rate for fire fighting must be available in addition to the coincident
maximum daily flow rate. The duration during the required fire flow must be available
for 4 to 10 h.
2. F = 320 C 𝐴
Where:
F = Fire demand in m3/day
C = Coefficient related to the type of construction
A = total floor area m2

43
Table 6: Value of C for different construction materials

44
Example 10: A community with a population of 50000 has an average water consumption
of 400 LPCD. Maximum demand is 180%. Fire resistant materials with C factor of 0.6 are
used for construction of buildings. Each building has/six floors Area of one floor is 600 m²
According to the standards, the fire flow must be maintained for 10 h for required fire flow
of greater than 8505 L/min. Determine total required amount of water during a fire (L/d).

Solution:
Average demand = 50,000 *400 * 10−3 = 20,000 m3/day
Maximum demand = 1.8 * 20,000 = 36,000 m3/day
1
Average demand = 20,000 * 103 *24∗60 = 13,888.9 l/min

Maximum demand = 1.8 * 13,888.9 = 25000 l/min

F = 320 C 𝐴 = 320*0.6 * 6 ∗ 600 = 11520 m3/day = 8000 l/min

Maximum rate = 25000+8000 = 33000 l/min which is greater than 8505 l/min
10ℎ
Total flow required during the day = 36000 m3/day +11520 m3/day * (24ℎ) = 40800 m3/day
References:
• Brandt M.J., Johnson K.M., Elphanston A.J., and Ratnayaka D.D. (2017) Twort’s
Water Supply, 7th Edition, Published by Elsevier Ltd.
• Davis, M. L. (2010) Water and Wastewater Engineering- Design Principles and
Practice, The McGraw Hill Companies.
• Steel, E.W. and McGhee, T.J. (1991).Water Supply and Sewerage. 6th edition.
International student edition.
• Aziz, S. Q. and Mustafa, J. S. (2019) Step-by-step design and calculations for water
treatment plant units, Advances in Environmental Biology, Vol. 13, No. 8, pp. 1-16.
• Omar, I. A. and Aziz, S. Q. (2020) Comparison and Assessment of Ifraz-2 and Qandil
Drinking Water Treatment Plant Units. 6th International Engineering Conference
“Sustainable Technology and Development" (IEC). , 26-27 February 2020, Erbil-
Iraq. IEEE Publisher.

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