Unit 4

Power System Security and Reliability

BG
TU-IOE

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 4.1 Power System Security
Power System Security refers to ensuring the continuous supply of
quality electricity to all the consumers.
Also defined as ‘the risks which can’t be accepted’.
 A power system remains secured if any credible loss of generating
unit or transmission line doesn’t cause:
- Sustained rise/fall in frequency
- Sustained rise/fall in voltage
- Sustained overloading of the circuit which can’t be relieved by the use
of running spare generating units or prearranged reduction in demand
- Interruption of power supply.
- cascading outages leading to blackout
Credible loss
Predetermined or ‘probable’ loss: Judgement done by experience and
probability calculations, affected by the design and installation of the
equipment existing
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 4.2 Security Measures Needed
Loss of generation equipment:
Maintain Sufficient reserve to make up deficit without violating
frequency limits or shedding any loads.
Loss of transmission network:
Maintain proper transmission flows and causing remaining
network to share the load.
System Collapse/ Black-out:
Violation of operating limits of equipments leads to sequential
switching of other equipment out of service which in turn results
into system collapse.
Ensure measures for loss of generation or transmission line to
avoid black-outs.

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 4.3 Maintaining Reserves:
A power system should have provisions for maintaining reserves.
“Reserve” is the unused reserve capacity of the system.
Reserve: Generator capacity available to the system operator
within an interval of short time to meet demand in case a generator
goes down or there is another disruption to the supply or there is
sudden increase in demand.
Most power systems are designed so that, under normal conditions,
the operating reserve is always at least the capacity of the largest
generator plus a fraction of peak load.

Spinning Reserves
Scheduled or off line reserves
Static Reserves

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 Spinning Reserve (Operating Reserve):
Extra generating capacity that is available by increasing the power
output of generators that are already online. Power output increase is
obtained by increasing the amount of water, steam, etc. to the turbine.
 Generally, all generators in the system are made to run below their
rated capacity.
Other Spinning Reserves:
 The generators which are operating in no load conditions. When
power shortage occurs, these generators are connected to the
system to restore system to the normal operating condition.
 Altering the operating conditions of pumped storage plant.
 Gas turbine generator which can be started automatically by
frequency sensitive relays or remote control.
A spinning reserve must respond within 10 minutes at maximum.
Rules define spinning reserves. Rules are set by regional reliability councils.
NERC: North American Reliability Council
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 The spinning reserve of the running plant should be located
geographically throughout the system so that:
•The drop in the frequency due to the loss of the largest unit is
halted before the frequency limit is violated.
•The redistribution of the power flows in the system resulting
from the replacement of a particular generating unit by running
spare capacity will not cause the overloading of any circuit.
•The under-estimation of the demand which comes too late to run
additional plant can be recovered.

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 Scheduled or Off line Reserves:
(Also called Supplemental Reserves)
Extra capacity that is not currently connected to the system but
can be started, brought up to full capacity and synchronized to the
system quickly.
 Quick start diesel or gas turbine
 Hydro and pumped hydro
 Fast start large generators
 Import from other power systems
 Scheduled reserves are used only after all the spinning reserves
are on-line.
 Typical response time is 30 ~ 60 minutes.

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 Static Reserves or Replacement Reserves
(hot stand by plants):
Change in the weather (or some other unusual phenomenon) may
lead to increased demand which was not forecasted. Static Reserve
(hot stand by plants) is operated under such condition.
Hot stand by plant is the generator unit with boiler back up which
can be brought on load in less than two hours.

Static reserve is used to cover the other contingency too in the

power system.
•When some of the spare capacity is used against the breakdown,
the capacity must be restored to normal value.
Static reserves are different from off-line reserves but their
installation is not as time consuming as new hydro or diesel engine
system.

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 Frequency-Response Reserve
The frequency-response reserve (also known as regulating
reserve) is the capacity that can be restored by the governor. It is
useful for small load fluctuations only.

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  Reserves, especially the spinning reserves reduce the system
risk but it’s costly to maintain a large spinning reserve.
Reserves should be sufficient to ensure security but must be
kept to minimum to reduce the additional cost.
 Reserves should be well distributed around the power system.

Batteries, Capacitors and Flywheel: Can they be used as

reserves? Can they be designed in large capacity?

The search for the ‘ultimate storage’ – High Storage Batteries

NGK NaS Batteries:
- 1 MW, 6 MWH battery each.
- Efficiency very high ~ 90%
- But operate at very high temp. 300 ~ 350 °C. Dangerous to use in
normal conditions
Some utilities in places like Alaska have started using it as ‘reserve’
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 4.4 Physical Constraints to Security

Network Constraints:
Merit order operation Vs Out of Merit Operation:
When a section of the system is insecure because of the outage of
the transmission circuit, the generating plant is run out of the
merit to maintain security if necessary (i.e., if the cost of out of
merit operation is less than the capital cost of additional
equipment. The out of merit operation is carried out as it is to be
done only till the outage is rectified.

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 •Inflexibility of the plant
Design limitation:
Thermal power plant:
-Minimum load limitations is caused by fuel combustion stability
and other design constraints. If, in a plant, feed water provided only
when the plant is running, it is necessary to run at least one set
running for supplying the feed water.

Hydro power plant:

In many hydro systems the generation of the power is combined with
flood control, release for irrigation, other recreational activities.
These associated activities may impose limitations on scheduling of
hydro plant.
- The capacity of a hydro plant may vary seasonally, getting reduced
in winter.
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 Incipient fault:
Rotor earth faults, Gas initiation within transformer, etc. can not be
rectified Immediately.

•Starting losses
-Heat energy needed to bring boiler to working condition.
-Radiation losses occur from the boiler when machine is off load.

•Minimum up time
In thermal power plant the unit should not be turned off immediately.
It should run for specified minimum time.

•Minimum down time

In thermal plant once the unit is de-commited it should not be re-
committed immediately. There should be minimum time gap before
re-commision.

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Crew Constraints
A fixed number of operators are required to turn on and monitor two or
more units simultaneously .
Coordination constraints
Hydro- thermal coordination in interconnected system.
Fuel constraints:
Stock of the fuel in thermal plant and amount of water stored and flowing
in hydro plant
Other constraints:
- Delays in construction and commissioning of new generating plant,
transmission ckt and equipment
- Transmission equipment must be taken out of service for routine
maintenance and to allow extensions of the network
- Diversions of tr. ckt, replacements of transformers, updating of
switchgears etc.
- Difficulty in assessing the dangerous power flows in complex network
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 4.5 Effect of System interconnection, System diversity and
Import /Export
1.System Interconnection :

A: Paralleling:
Conditions for paralleling must be fulfilled as otherwise unwanted
energy may flow at the time, the paralleling switches are closed
which may have adverse effect on system security.

B: Speed:
Since the point of interconnection may be far away from the
generating units, use of telephoning order or remote control should
be made for adjustment of system speed which if not done, the
security system will be deteriorated.

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 C: Running spare capacity:
During outage of units, the load are to be shared by remaining units
in such a way that their stability limit must not exceed. Hence, there
must be sufficient running space capacity within the system.
During outage of lines, the units importing power will have their
speed decreased and the one exporting power will experience increase
in speed. This results in decrease or increase in frequency of the
system, thereby, deteriorating the system security.
Thus, fast acting governor or sufficient spinning reserve must be
arranged for system security to be maintained.
2) System diversity:
The low system diversity might effect the system security since the
operator should shed power of some area .The operator should plan
and load the units according to daily load curve of each plant.
3) Import /Export:
Since, import /Export is done through the tie-line, its effect is same
as that of interconnection.
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 Illustration

Western
region Eastern
500 mw maximum region
(units 1, 2 &
3) (units 4 & 5)

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Region Unit Unit capacity, Unit Output, Regional Spinning Regional load, Interchange,
MW MW generation, MW reserve, MW MW MW
Western 1 1000 900 1740 100 1900 160 in

2 800 420 380

3 800 420 380

Eastern 4 1200 1040 1350 160 1190 160 out

5 600 310 290

Total 4400 3090 3090 1310 3090

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 Power system Reliability
• Reliability in general:
Probability of a device or a system performing required functions
under stated conditions for a specified period of time.

• Reliability of Power System:

Probability of providing the users with continuous service of
satisfactory quality(i.e. specified value of voltage and frequency
with all operational limits satisfied)

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 Approaches to Reliability
1) Deterministic Approach:
Used for small power system with limited loads.
a) Percentage margin or capacity reserve margin (CRM)
CRM= fixed percentage of installed capacity (IC)
b) Loss of largest unit:
Capacity reserve= capacity of largest unit (CLU)
c) Loss of largest unit+ margin:
Capacity reserve = CLU+ x* IC
2) Probabilistic Approach
• Used for larger and complex system as failure is caused by
reasons quite unpredictable.
• Applied to almost every aspect of power system reliability
evaluation
• Reliability characteristics (indices) are used to predict reliability

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 Reliability Theory in Power System

Reliability function: R(t) = e-λt

Unreliability function: F(t) = 1- e-λt

λ is the rate of failure or ‘hazard rate’.
So, it can be seen that the reliability of the component decreases
exponentially with time. A careful plan is necessary to keep the
power system reliability at the desired level with the passing of
time.
(i) Scheduled preventive maintenance of different components
(ii) Addition of new generating plants, other components
(iii) New tr. lines or upgrading of the existing tr. lines
(iv) Upgrading of switchgear
(v) Speedy repair of failed components

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 Repairable items (I)

– Items (components) which undergo many cycles of

failures and repair within the duration of their design life
– Life does not end in a single failure unlike non repairable
items
– Most of industrial machinery and consumer products are
repairable
– Maintenance strategies including breakdown maintenance
needed to increase reliability

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 Repairable items(II)

• State Diagram: N F
• Life process:
TU
Uptime TU

Repair
Period Operating
TD Period
Down TD
Time

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 Non repairable items(1)

– Lives are over as soon as the first failure occurs.

– Use and throw principle. One shot device.
– Preventive and predictive maintenance needed.
– CT/PT, lightning arrestors, Electric bulbs, tube lights, low
voltage electronic motors and transformers, most of the
electronic accessories, etc.

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 Non repairable items(2)

• State Diagram:
N F
• Life process:
TU
Uptime

Failed
state

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 “Bathtub curve” reliability concept:
Reliability curve has shape of bath-tub. Total life of a component
consists of three distinct sections:
a) Infant mortality period (debugging period):
b) Useful life or normal life or normal operating period:
c) Old-age or wear-out period:
(Based on ‘natural’ human mortality rates)

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 a) Infant mortality period
(debugging period):
Number of failures may be high due
to bad design, wrong manufacturing
process, inadequate selection of
materials and poor quality of
component. The errors are debugged
here.
b) Useful life (normal operating period):
Stabilized low failure rate due to correction of errors in design and
manufacturing process in the debugging period. Failures are caused
by random behaviors. Well designed maintenance strategy can be
used to extend this period
c) Old-age (wear-out period):
Failure rate increases again due to wearing, material deterioration
and ageing. Repair may be costly, so better to replace by new one.
Criticized now a days as being insufficient for analyzing failures
complex modern systems such as aircraft and power system.
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 Properties of Reliability
(i) R(t) in general is a decreasing function of time.
(ii) 0 ≤ R(t) ≤ 1
(iii) R(0) = 1, R(∞) = 0
Reliability Indices
(1) Mean durations:
• Mean time to failure (MTTF)
• Mean time to repair (MTTR)
• Mean time between failures (MTBF)
(2) Availability
(3) Forced Outage Rate (FOR)
(4) Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)
(5) Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE)
(6) Expected Energy not Supplied (EENS)
(7) Customer Supply Interruption Index
(8) The Load Interruption Index
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 all the indices are probabilistic. Its impossible to project exact
figures.
Factors to be considered:
- System structure and size
- Component independence
- Reparability
- Failure and repair time distribution
- Component failure mode
- Effect of operating routines
- Environmental effects

Decisions in planning, design and operating are invariably based

on several factors, only one of which is reliability.

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 Mean Time to Failure (MTTF)
MTTF is a reliability index of non-repairable components. If
the failure rate is constant λ then MTTF is given as,
𝟏
𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭 = ∫𝟎 𝒆 𝝀𝒕
𝒅𝒕 =
𝝀

Graphically,

MTTF

λ
MTTF can be increased by preventive maintenance.

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 When a number of similar components are installed in similar
working conditions, average MTTF is defined which is given by,

∑ 𝒏𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒅 × (𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒖𝒂𝒍 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒖𝒓𝒆 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆)

𝑨𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒆 𝑴𝑻𝑻𝑭 =
𝒕𝒐𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝒏𝒐. 𝒐𝒇 𝒇𝒂𝒊𝒍𝒆𝒅 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔

Then failure rate is called constant hazard rate λ and is taken as,
1
λ=
𝑀𝑇𝑇𝐹

For non-reparable type components, only MTTF is calculated.

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 Example:
A utility has following data in 33 kV oil filled CT. Assume CT to be
non-repairable type.

Installed Installed Nos. Failure

Nos. Year Failed Year
1 1999
2 2005 Calculate:
1 2008 (i) Average MTTF in year
20 1990 (ii) Constant hazard rate, λ per year
3 2013
2 2014 (iii) Reliability function
1 2016 (iv) Unreliability function
1 2008 (v) Unreliability density function
1 2011
10 1995 2 2013
2 2016
1 2017

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 Solution:

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 Repairable Components

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 Reliability Indices for Repairable Components
Normal Repair: A repair which takes some time.
In any normal repair, ‘repair time’ is a random variable. So the life
process of a repairable component consists of alternating ‘up’ and
‘down’ periods.
TU : Up time or running time or operating time
TD : Down time or not running time or not operating time or repair
time T TU TU TU
U

TD TD TD TD

Life History
Ideal Repair: A repair in which the duration of repair is zero.
Example of ideal repair?
Replacement of the failed component with a new one
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 Its assumed that both the up-times and down-times are exponentially
distributed as,
𝑭𝑼 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝒆 𝝀𝒕
𝑭𝑫 𝒕 = 𝟏 − 𝒆 µ𝒕
Where, λ is the failure rate and µ is the repair rate.
𝑭𝑼 𝒕 is also called ‘cumulative probability distribution function’
(CDF) of the ‘up time’. It’s the total duration when the component is
in operating condition.
Similarly, 𝑭𝑫 𝒕 is also called ‘cumulative probability distribution
function’ (CDF) of the ‘down time’. It’s the total duration when the
component is in failed condition.

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 Mean up time is calculated as,
𝒅𝑭𝑼(𝒕)
𝑴𝑼 = ∫𝟎 𝒅𝒕 = ∫𝟎 𝒕𝝀𝒆 𝝀𝒕 𝒅𝒕
𝒅𝒕
𝟏
On solving using L’Hopital rule, we get, 𝑴𝑼 =
𝟏
Similarly, mean down time is obtained as, 𝑴𝑫 =
µ
Availability: The availability (A) of a repairable component is the
proportion of time in the long run that it is in or ready for service.
𝟏
𝑴𝑼 µ 𝝀
𝑨= = =
𝑴𝑼 + 𝑴𝑫 𝟏 + 𝟏 𝝀 + µ
𝝀 µ
High availability means high reliability. So, repair rate µ should be high.
This is obtained with-
- Well equipped and competent repair team
- Sufficient inventory of spare parts.
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 Unavailability: Unavailability (Ā) the proportion of time in the
long run that a repairable component is not in or not ready for
service.
𝟏
𝑴𝑫 λ µ
Ā= = = =𝟏−𝑨
𝑴𝑼 + 𝑴𝑫 𝟏 𝟏 𝝀 + µ
+
𝝀 µ
Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF): The average time of
satisfactory operation of the component. Larger MTBF means
high reliability.
Time between failures is the sum of up time and down time. So,
MTBF is the sum of mean up time 𝑴𝑼 and mean down time 𝑴𝑫.
𝟏 𝟏 𝝀µ
𝑴𝑻𝑩𝑭 = + =
𝝀 µ 𝝀+µ
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 Forced Outage Rate (FOR)

Scheduled outage: An outage that results when a component is

deliberately taken out of service at a selected time, usually for the
purpose of construction, preventive maintenance or repair.
Forced outage: An outage that results from emergency condition
directly associated with a component requiring that the component
be taken out of service immediately, either automatically or
manually or an outage caused by improper operation of equipment
or human error.

Any outage which is not ‘scheduled’ is a ‘forced outage’.

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 Forced Outage Rate (FOR): FOR is the ratio of the forced outage
hours to the sum of the in-service hours and the forced outage hours.
𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝐹𝑂𝑅 =
𝐼𝑛 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 + 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑑 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐻𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒
=
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒 + 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝑃𝑅
=
𝑃𝑁 + 𝑃𝑅
1
=
𝑃𝑁
+1
𝑃𝑅
1
=µ
+1
λ
λ
=
λ+µ
= 𝐔𝐧𝐚𝐯𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲
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 Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)
Loss of load is the condition of the load demand exceeding the
generation capacity.
The overall probability that the load demand will not be met during
a period is called Loss of Load Probability (LOLP). It is usually
expressed in terms of days per year, hours per day or as a
percentage of time.
While Calculating LOLP,
 Only generating units are considered, rest of the system is
assumed to be perfectly reliable.
 Transmission system is assumed to be capable of delivering
energy from any generation configuration to any load
configuration without any losses and deterioration.
 System is considered to be successfully operating as long as
there is sufficient generation required to meet load demand.

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 LOLP calculations are made based on the yearly load curve,
generating units’ capacities and the forced outage rates of the
generating units.
Examples:
1) Find the loss of load probability (LOLP) index for one year
duration for the given load curve and the generating units.

100
Unit Capacity, MW FOR
80
1 100 0.01
Load, MW

40 2 50 0.012
3 50 0.015
0 73 292 365
Duration, Days

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 Solution:
Let the availability and the unavailability of the generating units be 1
and 0 respectively.
A B C D = B×C
System No. of Days during Expected No. of Days
State Individual
Capacity, which Load is not during which Loss of
#1 #2 #3 Probability
MW met Load Occurs

1 1 1 200 0.99 × 0.988× 0.985 0 0

1 1 0 150 0.99 × 0.988× 0.015 0 0
1 0 1 150 0.99 × 0.012 ×0.985 0 0
1 0 0 100 0.99 × 0.012 × 0.015 0 0
0 1 1 100 0.01 × 0.988 × 0.985 0 0
0 1 0 50 0.01 × 0.988 × 0.015 292 0.0433
0 0 1 50 0.01 × 0.12 × 0.985 292 0.0345
0 0 0 0 0.01 × 0.12 × 0.015 365 0.00066
Total 0.07846
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 ⸫ LOLP = (0.07846/365) × 100 %
= 0.021 %

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 2) Considering a system consisting of three generating units having
capacities of 260 MW, 330 MW and 460 MW with corresponding
forced outage rates of 0.01, 0.02 and 0.03, find the loss of load
probability (LOLP) for yearly triangular load duration curve which
has a peak load of 700 MW and a base load of 150 MW.

700
A
500 Unit Capacity, MW FOR
Load, MW

1 260 0.01
150
x 2 330 0.02
3 460 0.03
0 365
Duration, Days
(700-150)/365 = (500-150)(365-x)

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 Solution:

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Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE)
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) is the number of hours per annum in
which over the long run, it is statistically expected that supply will not
meet demand.
LOLE is LOLP expressed in hours per year.
It’s a probabilistic approach, the actual number of hours depending on
the circumstances in a particular year.
LOLE is used as the basis of reliability in many countries.
Ireland – 8 hours per year
France – 3 hours per year
Netherlands – 4 hours per year
LOLE ≠ blackout

Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)

This is the amount of electricity demand - measured in MWh – that is
expected not to be met by generation in a given year. It is also
called 'Expected Energy Unserved' (EEU)
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 Reliability and quality
 Reliability:
Ability of a product to maintain the specified quality level for
specified time under the intended operating condition.
 Quality:
Degree of conformance to specification of the product. It is not
concerned with time and environmental factors. Equipment which
has passed all quality tests need not necessarily be reliable.

It is impossible to construct a good quality system using poor quality

components. However, it may be possible to construct highly reliable
system using low reliable component by applying redundancies.
However the technical, economic, space, volume and weight
constraints need to be adequately addressed before implementing
redundancies.
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 Cost of Reliability and Unreliability
Cost of reliability: The initial investment made in the system or
the component (device). If good components are selected the
reliability is high. The cost of maintenance and repair is low in
such a case.

Cost of unreliability: Cost occurring due to the interruptions

caused by the failure of the system or the component. If low
quality components are selected, they require frequent
maintenances and may also fail frequently. So maintenance and
repair costs become high.

So an optimum cost should be sought for any installation.

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 System Reliability Models

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 Series System

Input Output

Consider a system consisting of n sub systems linked with other in a chain.

 All the Sub systems need to be in up state to make the system in up state
 The system will fail if any one or more of its sub systems fail
 Each link of the chain is essential for its success
 The event representing the system success is evaluated using the intersection
law of probability
 If Ei be the event with the sub-system I in working condition then the reliability
of the system is the probability that all these events occur simultaneously i.e.
R=Pr(E1 ∩ E2 ∩….. ∩En)
=Pr(E1)*Pr(E2/E1)*Pr(E3/E1E2)*……….
If the sub-systems are independent, then
R=Pr(E1)*Pr(E2)*………*Pr(En)
= R1*R2*…………*Rn Where Rn is reliability of each sub-system
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 Parallel System
Degree of system reliability depends upon the degree of redundancy in
the system.
If availability of only one component for the system success then,
reliability of the system is given by,
RP =1- (1-R1) *(1- R2) *(1- R3) *……….(1-Rn)
Probability of success in parallel system is higher than that in series
system.

Input Output

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 System are generally complex series parallel systems but they
can be reduced to simple systems.

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 A system which can’t be reduced into pure series parallel system is
called ‘Non series parallel system’.

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