Topic: Simulation
Introduction: Simulation represents a major divergence from the topics learned so
far. Previous topics usually dealt with mathematical models and formulas that could be
applied to certain types of problems. The solution approaches to these problems were, for the
most part, analytical. However, not all real-world problems can be solved by applying a
specific type of technique and then performing the calculations. Some problem situations are
too complex to be represented by the concise techniques presented so far. In such cases,
simulation is an alternative form of analysis.
Analogue simulation:
In analogue simulation, an original physical system is replaced by an analogous physical
system that is easier to manipulate. Much of the experimentation in staffed spaceflight was
conducted using physical simulation that re-created the conditions of space. For example,
conditions of weightlessness were simulated using rooms filled with water, wind tunnels that
simulate the conditions of flight and treadmills that simulate automobile tire wear in a
laboratory instead of on the road.
Computer mathematical simulation:
In this form of simulation, systems are replicated with mathematical models, which are
analyzed using a computer. This form of simulation has become very popular and has been
applied to a wide variety of business problems. One reason for its popularity is that it offers a
means of analyzing very complex systems that cannot be analyzed by using the other
management science techniques. However, because such complex systems are beyond the
scope of our syllabus, we will not present actual simulation models; instead, we will present
simplified simulation models of systems that can also be analyzed analytically. We will learn
one of the simplest forms of simulation models, which encompasses the Monte Carlo process
for simulating random variables
The Monte Carlo Process:
One characteristic of some systems that makes them difficult to solve analytically is that they
consist of random variables represented by probability distributions.
Thus, a large proportion of the applications of simulations are for probabilistic models.
The term Monte Carlo has become synonymous with probabilistic simulation in recent years.
The Monte Carlo technique can be more narrowly defined as a technique for selecting
numbers randomly from a probability distribution (i.e., “sampling”) for use in a trial
(computer) run of a simulation.
The Monte Carlo technique is not a type of simulation model but rather a mathematical
process used within a simulation.
The name Monte Carlo is appropriate because the basic principle behind the process is the
same as in the operation of a gambling casino in Monaco. In Monaco such devices as roulette
wheels, dice, and playing cards are used. These devices produce numbered results at random
from well-defined populations. For example, a 7 resulting from a pair of thrown dice is a
random value from a population of 11 possible numbers (i.e., 2 through 12). This same
process is employed, in principle, in the Monte Carlo process used in simulation models.
Problem 1:
Ans:
Random Number Code (Daily Demand Distribution)
Daily Demand Probability Cumulative Random Number
Probability Interval
0 0.01 0.01 00
10 0.2 0.01+0.2=0.21 01-20
The simulated demand for breads for the next 10 days are given by
Experiment Simulation
Day Random Number Simulated Demand Stock situation-if
30 breads are
produced daily
1 48 30 -
2 78 30 -
3 19 10 20
6
7
10
Total =
Average demand =
Problem 2:
Ans:
Random Number Code
Production per Day Probability Cumulative Random Number
Probability Interval
146 0.04 0.04 00-03
147 0.09 0.04+0.09=
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
The simulated production per day is given by
Random Number Production per Day No. of Scooters No. of empty spaces
waiting in the lorry
80 153 150-150=3
81
76
75
64
43 150 150-150=0
18
26
10
12 147 150-147=3
65
68
69
61
57
Total
1) Average no. of scooters waiting =
2) Average No. of empty spaces in the lorry =
Problem 3:
Ans:
Random Number Code:
Sale Probability Cumulative Random No.
Probability interval
Simulation of data:
Day Random Estimated Profit Profit
Number Sale (Production 30 (Production 29
items/day) items/day)
1 10 28 28*10(profit per item) 28*10(profit per item)
– 2*15(unsold product – 1*15(unsold
loss) = 250 product loss) = 265
3
4
10
Total
Problem 4:
Problem 5:
Problem 6:
