Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

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Case Studies on Transport Policy

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Passenger satisfaction modeling in public bus transportation based on

business model approach: Ten city case studies
Büşra Buran
Management Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, 34469 Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: Public transportation has become a crucial topic in urban areas due to increasing traffic congestion. Encourag-
Passenger satisfaction ing a shift from private cars to public transit requires a strong focus on passenger satisfaction. Numerous studies
Public bus transportation have assessed passenger satisfaction across different transportation modes, including buses, rail systems, multi-
Multiple linear regression
modal transport, and micro-mobility solutions. However, existing research primarily focuses on operational
Business model
aspects, often overlooking a comprehensive approach that integrates financial and environmental impact
factors. This study aims to address this gap by presenting four hypotheses related to passenger satisfaction
in public bus transportation, based on a thorough review of the literature. A multiple linear regression model
is developed using a business model framework, incorporating variables derived from both prior studies and
the authors’ experience. The dataset includes information from ten major cities worldwide such as Barcelona,
Istanbul, London, New York, and Paris while considering different governance structures, including operator-
led and authority-managed public bus systems. A statistical analysis is conducted to validate the proposed
model. The findings reveal that financial factors do not significantly influence passenger satisfaction due to
the non-profit nature of public transportation services. In contrast, operational factors, categorized under the
activity and value dimensions of the business model, positively impact satisfaction levels. Interestingly, the
impact dimension, represented by the green fleet ratio, is found to have a negative effect within the proposed
framework. This study provides valuable insights for both transit operators and policymakers, helping them
identify key areas for improving passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation. By integrating operational,
financial, and impact-related factors, this research not only fills a gap in the literature but also serves as a
strategic guide for prioritizing enhancement efforts in public transit systems.

1. Introduction In recent years, traffic congestion has become a critical issue in

major cities worldwide. Congestion levels have reached forty-five per-
Public transportation serves as the backbone of urban mobility, cent in London, forty-six percent in Paris, forty-three percent in New
providing reliable access to transportation at all times (Glotz-Richter York, and fifty-three percent in Istanbul (tomtom, 2025). Developing
and Koch, 2016). It plays a crucial role not only in social life but
efficient public transportation systems is a key strategy for alleviating
also in economic development and environmental sustainability. From
traffic congestion (Stopher, 2004; Winston and Shirley, 2010; Mrad
an economic perspective, public transit stimulates local economies
by increasing property values and enhancing the attractiveness of and Mraihi, 2023). To encourage people to shift from private cars
commercial areas due to improved accessibility (Moorthy and Jeronn, to public transit, the quality of public transportation services plays
2014; Cordera et al., 2019; Mulley and Tsai, 2017). Environmentally, it a crucial role (Grujičić et al., 2014; Paulley et al., 2006). Recogniz-
contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by promoting green ing this, the European Standard Committee introduced a framework
mobility solutions and encouraging a shift from private car usage to defining service quality through eight key criteria: availability, accessi-
public transit. According to the InterAcademy Council report (Newman bility, time efficiency, information, comfort, customer care, security,
and Kenworthy, 2011), transportation accounts for twenty-two percent and environmental impact (Berežnỳ and Konečnỳ, 2019; Eboli and
of global energy consumption, placing significant responsibility on the
Mazzulla, 2021). These criteria serve as guidelines for enhancing pas-
sector to reduce emissions. In response, public transportation systems
senger satisfaction, which is closely linked to increased public transport
are increasingly adopting sustainable solutions, such as electric, hy-
drogen, and biofuel-powered vehicles, to minimize their environmental usage and long-term user loyalty (Saw et al., 2020; Antonucci et al.,
impact (Majumder et al., 2019; Pyza et al., 2022; Hofer, 2009).

E-mail address: [email protected].

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101472
Received 14 December 2024; Received in revised form 29 March 2025; Accepted 3 May 2025
Available online 20 May 2025
2213-624X/© 2025 World Conference on Transport Research Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining,
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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

2014; Van Lierop et al., 2018). Moreover, improved public transporta-

tion service quality positively influences public perception, fostering a
more favorable image of public transit systems (Sumaedi et al., 2016).
Several studies have also explored the relationship between public
transportation and urban quality of life (Dimian and Barbu, 2012;
Wesemann, 2020; Chang and Smith, 2023). Findings suggest that en-
hancements in public transit services contribute significantly to overall
city livability (Putra and Sitanggang, 2016; Chen et al., 2019; Kim
et al., 2020). With the rapid advancement of smart technologies in the
transportation sector, public transit service quality has seen substantial
improvements (Xu et al., 2022). Smart transportation applications have
facilitated safer travel (Jagatheesaperumal et al., 2024), optimized
transit networks (Thiranjaya et al., 2018), and increased accessibility
and comfort for passengers (Darsena et al., 2022; Zhou et al., 2012).
This study focuses on modeling passenger satisfaction in public
bus transportation systems through a unified framework based on the
business model approach. Service quality dimensions are defined not
only through an extensive literature review but also by incorporating
the authors’ expertise. While most existing studies emphasize factors Fig. 1. Blocks of business model is associated passenger satisfaction regarding literature
studies (Osterwalder and Pigneur, 2010).
such as frequency, reliability, comfort, travel time, accessibility, and
ticket prices (Shen et al., 2016; Zefreh et al., 2020; Echaniz et al., 2020;
Putra et al., 2014), this study expands the scope by integrating both
financial and environmental impact dimensions. The financial aspect is determinants of customer satisfaction. Subsequently, the focus shifts to
assessed through the revenue-to-expense ratio, while the environmental the public transportation sector. In the second subsection, the determi-
dimension is represented by the proportion of electric buses in the fleet. nants of passenger satisfaction are examined across various transporta-
By adopting this holistic approach, the study addresses a gap in the tion systems. Finally, the studies are reviewed with a specific focus on
literature, offering a more comprehensive framework for evaluating evaluating passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation systems.
passenger satisfaction. The proposed model is validated using data from
ten cities across different continents, including Europe, Asia, and Amer-
ica. This cross-continental validation enhances the study’s contributions 2.1. Customer satisfaction with business model
to both theoretical research and practical management strategies. Fur-
thermore, addressing the proposed research questions will provide
This section examines customer satisfaction through the lens of the
valuable practical insights, strengthening the study’s applicability in
business model approach, addressing the question: how are different
real-world transportation planning and decision-making.
elements of the business model linked to customer satisfaction? Accord-
1. Can passenger satisfaction be effectively modeled using the busi- ing to existing literature, various business model elements are closely
ness model approach? tied to customer satisfaction, including customer loyalty (Williams and
2. What criteria can be used as variables in the proposed model? Naumann, 2011; Ramasamy et al., 2024; Aimee, 2019; Scridon et al.,
3. Which criteria have the greatest impact on passenger satisfaction 2019), customer value (Pynnönen et al., 2012; Ramasamy et al., 2024),
in public bus transportation? resource management (Angelova and Zekiri, 2011; Hamzah and Sham-
sudin, 2020), partnership networks (Pynnönen et al., 2012; Patterson
Although there are several studies in the literature that explore et al., 1997), customer segments (Ramasamy et al., 2024; Chen and Liu,
customer satisfaction modeling, identify satisfaction determinants, and
2013; Aimee, 2019), and financial structure (Ngo, 2015; Williams and
measure their effects on satisfaction (Tanwar et al., 2025; Guan et al.,
Naumann, 2011).
2024; Tanwar and Agarwal, 2025; Chen et al., 2022b; Zefreh et al.,
2020; Eboli and Mazzulla, 2021; Weng et al., 2023; Atombo and We- Clauss et al. (2019) suggested that there is a positive relationship
megah, 2021), there is a lack of a unified framework that incorporates between business model innovation and customer satisfaction. They
both monetary and impact factors. This gap is addressed by the current analyzed business model elements in the context of customer satisfac-
study. tion and found that partnership, value creation, and customer segments
The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews related works, significantly influence customer satisfaction. Similarly, Kanji and Wal-
divided into two subsections: customer satisfaction within the business lace (2000) explored business excellence through customer satisfaction,
model and passenger satisfaction in public transportation. Section 3 identifying customer loyalty, value creation, customer segments, value
outlines the methodology, which includes three subsections: the pro- partnerships, and process excellence as key factors positively asso-
posed hypotheses, the data collection process, and the methodologi- ciated with customer satisfaction. On the monetary side, Williams
cal steps. Section 4 presents the results, along with their theoretical and Naumann (2011) highlighted the relationship between financial
and managerial implications. Finally, Section 5 provides the conclu- performance and customer satisfaction. Furthermore, Ngo (2015) in-
sion, discussing study limitations and suggesting directions for future corporated financial measures into their study to evaluate customer
research. satisfaction.
In summary, the business model approach has been effectively uti-
2. Related works
lized to explain customer satisfaction in various studies. These studies,
The literature review is organized around two main themes: cus- examining customer satisfaction through the business model approach,
tomer satisfaction within the business model and passenger satisfaction are summarized in Fig. 1, which illustrates the key elements of the busi-
in public transportation. This section follows a deductive approach. ness model. As shown in Fig. 1, the business model structure consists
Initially, the relationship between customer satisfaction and business of three main components: activity, value, and monetary aspects. The
models is explored through the elements of the business model frame- relevant studies are categorized within these components based on the
work. This analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of the framework proposed by Osterwalder and Pigneur (2010).

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

2.2. Passenger satisfaction in public transportation ratings than reliability. From a rail satisfaction perspective, Shen et al.
(2016) developed a passenger satisfaction evaluation model for urban
The literature is reviewed using a thematic approach, with studies rail transit using structural equation modeling based on partial least
categorized into four themes: passenger satisfaction in multi-modal squares. The study found that factors such as direction and guidance,
public transportation, public bus transportation, travel satisfaction, and speed and convenience, staff service, safety, and security were associ-
micro-mobility transportation. Additionally, the theme of loyalty is ated with higher passenger satisfaction levels in urban rail transport
explored in relation to passenger satisfaction, as it represents a further systems.
step toward achieving long-term goals. For public bus transport satisfaction, Wan et al. (2016) proposed
For multi-modal public transport satisfaction, Putra et al. (2014) hypotheses to measure the satisfaction of riders on buses and at bus
aimed to explore the effect of performance on passenger satisfaction in stops using structural equation modeling. The findings revealed that
public transportation. A qualitative analysis was conducted on the Ken- frequency, on-time performance, and speed were the most important
erja public transportation system, where performance indicators were factors influencing overall satisfaction. Additionally, the authors noted
defined as safety, accessibility, integration, capacity, regularity, speed, that the effects of these factors could vary across different routes. Qud-
ease of use, punctuality, comfort, fare fairness, cleanliness, low pollu- dus et al. (2019) applied discrete choice models, including multinomial
tion, and efficiency. The study concluded that improvements in public and mixed logit models, to identify the service attributes contributing
transport performance indicators directly enhance passenger satisfac- to passenger satisfaction in bus transportation. The case study was
tion. To investigate the relationship between customer satisfaction and conducted in Dhaka city using customer satisfaction survey data. The
service quality attributes, Eboli and Mazzulla (2007) developed a tool results indicated that comfort level and driver skills were the most
for measuring customer satisfaction in public transport. Using structural important attributes influencing passenger satisfaction. Other signifi-
equation modeling, the study identified service planning and reliability cant factors included punctuality, safety, the entry and exit processes,
as key factors influencing overall customer satisfaction. Mouwen (2015) waiting times, and vehicle conditions in Dhaka’s bus transportation
sought to improve the understanding of the drivers of customer satisfac- system. To explore the factors influencing passenger satisfaction in bus
tion in public transport (PT). Using data from the Netherlands’ regional transit in China, Li et al. (2020) used ordered logit (OL) and ordered
Dutch PT systems (bus, tram, metro, and regional train), the study probit (OP) models. The analysis showed that daily average waiting
categorized service attributes into three main criteria: core, peripheral time, perceived waiting time, transfer convenience, driver attitude,
interactional, and peripheral physical attributes. The findings indicated intelligent travel information services, bus interior environment, ticket
that on-time performance, travel speed, and service frequency were price, bus routes, and bus stop settings significantly impacted passenger
the most important factors affecting customer satisfaction in Dutch satisfaction. The authors recommended optimizing bus routes and stop
public transport systems. Zefreh et al. (2020) examined the drivers settings, building dedicated bus lanes, improving dynamic charging
of passenger satisfaction in public transportation, focusing on the Bu- systems, and providing intelligent travel information services to en-
dapest case study. A survey was conducted to identify the relationship hance satisfaction in bus transit in small- and medium-sized cities in
between service attributes, such as service frequency, departure time China. Echaniz et al. (2020) aimed to reduce the amount of information
accuracy, and driver behavior. Using a multi-linear regression method, required to determine the drivers of customer satisfaction in public bus
the study found that satisfaction with different service attributes did transportation. To address this, the authors applied different ordered
not interact, and each attribute had an independent effect on satis- probit models, one using a full list of attributes and another with a
faction. Zhang et al. (2020) modeled passenger satisfaction in both partial set of attributes. The findings showed that the partial model,
bus and rail systems in Ningbo City using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy utilizing the multiple imputation method, performed similarly to the
process approach. Seven main criteria were considered: waiting time, model using the full list of attributes. Hasan et al. (2021) proposed
transfer convenience, service quality, information, passenger comfort, a structural equation model based on research hypotheses using ques-
station environment, and interior cleanliness. The study concluded that tionnaire survey data from intra-city bus passengers in Abu Dhabi. The
increasing bus frequency reduces congestion and enhances comfort, study indicated that quality attributes positively affected bus frequency,
which significantly impacts passenger satisfaction. Rong et al. (2022) network coverage, journey time, and bus-stop waiting times. Atombo
examined passenger satisfaction from both objective and subjective and Wemegah (2021) used the structural equation model to analyze
perspectives. The objective measures focused on onboard performance, factors influencing bus passenger satisfaction in public transportation.
while the subjective measures assessed passengers’ perceptions. The re- The authors proposed a conceptual framework based on the Servqual
sults showed a non-linear relationship between passengers’ perceptions approach, incorporating reliability, accessibility, safety, affordability,
and actual onboard performance. Tanwar et al. (2025) investigated availability, and comfort as key criteria for satisfaction with public
the effect of travel time performance on multi-modal public transport bus transportation. The results revealed that affordability and avail-
systems. The authors identified travel time as a critical performance ability were the most significant factors for perceived satisfaction,
parameter for public transportation. The study applied the Fuzzy Ana- while availability, security, and reliability were crucial for expected
lytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to model bus and rail transport systems. satisfaction. For segment analysis of customer satisfaction, Weng et al.
Travel time was categorized into three main components: access time, (2023) employed a structural equation model with two layers opera-
in-vehicle time, and egress time. The results emphasized that evaluating tion and service quality to analyze bus satisfaction preferences across
travel time performance is essential for improving service quality in different passenger groups, including elderly passengers, young leisure
public transportation systems. Tanwar and Agarwal (2024) evaluated passengers, young commuting passengers, and business-related middle-
the service quality of a multi-modal public transportation system in an aged passengers. The results identified travel time, punctuality, and the
Indian city using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), Factor Analysis, dynamic environment on the bus as key criteria affecting satisfaction.
Subgroup Analysis, and Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA). Six Moreover, the study found that operational quality had a greater impact
latent variables reliability, comfort, safety, accessibility, information, on satisfaction than service quality.
and customer service were analyzed. The study found that the most Regarding travel satisfaction, De Vos et al. (2019) examined how
significant factors affecting service quality were reliability and com- changes in travel patterns affect travel satisfaction in public transporta-
fort. Tanwar and Agarwal (2025) used factor analysis to determine tion. The respondents were categorized into two groups: those taking
service quality criteria for multi-modal public transport systems. Six commute trips and those on leisure trips. The results showed that a
criteria were identified: integration, reliability, comfort, safety, acces- decrease in travel distance leads to an increase in travel satisfaction.
sibility, and customer service. The study found that satisfaction levels For micro-mobility satisfaction, Guan et al. (2024) conducted a study
varied across factors, with accessibility and comfort receiving higher to explore the relationship between travel behavior and satisfaction.

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

This research analyzed shared micro-mobility satisfaction in three Eu-

ropean cities: Malmö, Manchester, and Utrecht. In a related study, Chen
et al. (2022b) focused on travel satisfaction with dockless bike-sharing.
The authors applied multivariate linear regression, using satisfaction
with the travel scale as a dependent variable. The findings indicated
that longer access times were associated with lower satisfaction with
dockless bike-sharing services. From the loyalty perspective, Van Lierop
and El-Geneidy (2016) analyzed the interplay between service qual-
ity, customer satisfaction, and behavioral intentions in public transit
systems, specifically for buses and metro transportation. The study Fig. 2. Schematic representation of the hypotheses for passenger satisfaction in public
examined the relationship between customer satisfaction and loyalty, transportation.
categorizing users into three groups: captive riders, choice riders, and
captive-by-choice riders. The criteria selected to evaluate public trans-
portation systems through the lens of loyalty included reliability, safety, personnel-related non-realized trips decreases (Kwon et al., 2019), thus
information, and cleanliness. Van Lierop et al. (2018) further explored contributing to a higher success rate in trip realizations.
the factors influencing satisfaction and loyalty in public transport, H2: Offering different types of services increases passenger satisfac-
identifying various criteria that impact both passenger satisfaction and tion in public bus transportation.
loyalty. In a study assessing public transport loyalty in Luxembourg, a Providing a variety of bus services, such as express lines, bus
car-dominated city, Maciejewska et al. (2023) used logistic regression rapid transit, nightlines, high-frequency lines, and demand-response
models to analyze loyalty toward bus and train services separately. The services (DRT), helps meet the diverse needs of passenger segments (Ni
results revealed that factors such as reliable service, in-vehicle travel et al., 2020). For example, in mega-cities like Istanbul, New York,
time, number of transfers, and passenger safety had varying levels of and London, public transportation authorities operate night bus lines
importance for bus and train services. to ensure mobility during late hours (MTA, 2024; TFL, 2023; IETT,
To understand the drivers of passenger satisfaction in public trans- 2025). Express lines, which stop at fewer stations, help reduce travel
portation, numerous studies in the literature have been summarized time (Yang et al., 2019). Additionally, DRT services are especially
in Table 1. While some studies focus on operational factors, others effective in regions with aging populations, such as in North America,
examine different perspectives, including perceptual, peripheral inter- by providing accessible and comfortable transportation options for
actional, and peripheral physical factors. The literature consistently similar route requests (Pinto, 2020).
highlights key criteria such as frequency, reliability, accessibility, travel H3: Decreasing the ratio of revenue to operational expenses leads
time, ticket price, safety, and comfort as common factors for modeling to a decrease in passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation.
passenger satisfaction in public transportation. Table 1 organizes the lit- Public transportation systems often rely on subsidies to maintain
erature based on various categories, including theme, criteria, method, service levels due to the gap between operational costs and rev-
type of transport, and location. enue (dos Santos and Lima, 2021). During the COVID-19 pandemic,
As shown in Table 1, structural equation modeling (SEM) is the most public transport authorities and operators experienced a sharp decline
commonly used method for modeling passenger satisfaction, followed in passenger numbers and had to rely on subsidies from local or central
by regression methods. Among the various criteria, frequency is the governments to sustain services (Basso et al., 2020; Vickerman, 2021).
most frequently studied, followed by reliability, accessibility, travel Revenue sources like ticket sales and advertising are limited, while
time, comfort, information, and ticket price, all of which are crucial costs such as fuel, staff, maintenance, and capital are significant. As a
for identifying factors that enhance passenger satisfaction. Despite the result, subsidies are necessary to ensure the sustainability of the system
different modes of transportation examined in these studies, common and prevent service quality degradation.
criteria are used across various transport types when investigating H4: Increasing the ratio of electric buses in the fleet enhances
passenger satisfaction. passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation.
Green transportation solutions, such as electric, hydrogen, and bio-
fuel buses, have become key topics in recent years. To reduce green-
3. Methodology
house gas emissions and improve service quality, public transportation
authorities, including Shenzhen Bus Group, Beijing Public Transport
The methodology section is divided into three subsections. The first
Holdings, Guangzhou Public Transport Group, Transport for London
subsection presents the proposed hypotheses along with detailed expla-
(TfL), and Régie Autonome des Transports Parisiens (RATP), have
nations. The second subsection describes the data collection process.
implemented plans for transitioning to electric bus fleets (Beijing, 2016;
Finally, the third subsection outlines the proposed method, including a
TfL, 2016; Ratp2, 2024). Electric buses not only help reduce emissions
thorough explanation of the model.
but also lower operational costs (Lin et al., 2014), contributing to
overall system efficiency and passenger satisfaction.
3.1. Proposed hypotheses A schematic representation of the hypotheses is shown in Fig. 2.
As illustrated in Fig. 2, H1, H2, and H4 are expected to positively
To improve passenger satisfaction in public transportation, four affect passenger satisfaction, while H3 is anticipated to have a negative
hypotheses are proposed and explained as follows: impact on satisfaction in public bus transportation.
H1: Increasing the ratio of bus drivers per vehicle positively affects
passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation. 3.2. Data collection
The number of buses and drivers is considered a major resource
in the public transportation system (Georgiadis et al., 2014). These To analyze the proposed hypotheses, public bus transportation data,
resources play a critical role in the trip realization rate, which is defined including the number of buses and drivers, types of services (i.e., var-
as the ratio of realized trips to planned trips (Georgiadis et al., 2014). ious bus routes), the ratio of revenue to operational expenses, and the
Non-realized trips can be attributed to three main factors: personnel- number of electric buses, were obtained from published documents as
related, traffic-related, and breakdown-related issues (Yap, 2020; Yap secondary data. These data are summarized with references in Table
and Cats, 2022; Marra and Corman, 2020; Errett et al., 2019). When 2. The secondary data were sourced from companies’ websites, which
the ratio of bus drivers per vehicle is adequate, the incidence of include information on passenger satisfaction surveys, bus fleet details,

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Table 1
Literature studies about passenger satisfaction in PT.
Theme Year Author(s) Criteria Method Type of Location
transport
Multi-modal 2014 Putra and Safety, accessibility, integrated, capacity, Structural equation Public transport Kenerja
PT satisfaction Sitanggang regular, fast, easy, on time, comfortable, model
(2016) orderly, efficient

Multi-modal 2015 Mouwen (2015) On-time performance, travel speed, Linear model Bus, tram, Netherlands
PT satisfaction frequency metro, and
regional train

Multi-modal 2016 Shen et al. Availability, frequency, waiting time, Structural equation Bus and rail Suzhou
PT satisfaction (2016) comfort, speed, convenience, staff model systems
service, safety, security

Multi-modal 2020 Zefreh et al. Service frequency, departure time Multiple linear Public transport Budapest
PT satisfaction (2020) accuracy, safety at stops, vehicle regression
cleanliness, seating capacity, and
information, driver behavior, ticket price

Multi-modal 2020 Rong et al. On-board performance; travel speed, Gradient boosting Public transport Shijiazhuang
PT satisfaction (2022) turning, and stopping conditions decision trees

Multi-modal 2024 Tanwar and Reliability, comfort, safety, accessibility, Structural Equation Public transport Bhopal
PT satisfaction Agarwal (2024) information, and customer service Modeling (SEM)

Multi-modal 2025 Tanwar et al. Travel-Time Performance; access, in The Fuzzy Analytic Public transport Bhopal
PT satisfaction (2025) vehicle, and egress time Hierarchy Process

Multi-modal 2025 Tanwar and Integration, reliability, comfort, safety, Regression method, Public transport Bhopal
PT satisfaction Agarwal (2025) accessibility, customer service factor analysis

Public bus 2007 Eboli and Frequency, reliability, crowdedness, Structural equation Bus Cosenza
transport Mazzulla (2021) cleanliness, cost, information, safety, model
satisfaction security, environmental protection, bus
stop availability and maintenance

Public bus 2016 Wan et al. Frequency, on time performance, speed Structural equation Bus rapid transit New York
transport (2016) model (BRT)
satisfaction

Public bus 2019 Quddus et al. Comfort, punctuality, reliability, cost, Multinomial and mixed Bus Dhaka
transport (2019) safety, waiting times, driver skill, logit model
satisfaction ticketing system,vehicle condition

Public bus 2020 Echaniz et al. Service frequency, Ordered Probit models Bus Santander
transport (2020) reliability,information,comfort, waiting
satisfaction time, price, cleanliness, driver behavior

Public bus 2021 Atombo and Reliability, accessibility, safety, Structural equation Bus Ghana
transport Wemegah (2021) affordability, availability, and comfort model
satisfaction

Public bus 2021 Hasan et al. Frequency,network coverage, journey Structural equation Bus Abu Dhabi
transport (2021) time, bus-stop waiting model
satisfaction

Public bus 2023 Weng et al. Efficiency, security,convenience, Structural equation Bus Beijing
transport (2023) amenity, reliability,fare rationality model
satisfaction

Micro-mobility 2022 Chen et al. Trip frequency, trip duration Multivariate linear Dockless Beijing
satisfaction (2022b) regression bike-sharing

Micro-mobility 2024 Guan et al. Availability, frequency,accessibility, Logistic regression Shared Malmo,
satisfaction (2024) comfort model bikes/e-bikes Manchester, and
Utrecht

Loyalty 2016 Van Lierop and Reliability, safety, information, and Structural equation Bus and metro Montreal,
El-Geneidy cleanliness model systems Quebec, and
(2016) Vancouver,
British Columbia

Loyalty 2023 Maciejewska Supply, accessibility, comfort, Logistic regression Bus and train Luxembourg
et al. (2023) information availability, pricing and model
safety

bus line services (such as night, airport, and express lines), and financial ticket price, safety, security, waiting time, and environmental concerns,
reports. as indicated by the secondary data. The driver ratio per vehicle refers
According to Table 2, satisfaction surveys were conducted not only to the number of bus drivers per vehicle from a resource perspective,
for bus services but also for all public transportation modes in the cities. while service types include express, night, and high-frequency lines.
However, this study focuses specifically on bus service scores, which The revenue-expense coverage ratio represents the financial sustain-
encompass various criteria such as frequency, accessibility, comfort, ability of the system, indicating the relationship between revenue and

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Table 2
Data collected from cities.
Cities Passenger bus Driver ratio Service Revenue-expense Electric bus
satisfaction per vehicle types coverage ratio ratio
Istanbul (IETT, 2025; IETT2, 2023) 72 1,37 5 0,41 0,000
Paris (Ratp3, 2022) 87 3,40 8 0,53 0,031
New York (MTA2, 2022; MTA3, 2023; MTA4, 2024) 65 2,02 3 0,18 0,003
London (TfL3, 2023; Tf4, 2025; Tf5, 2024) 78 2,83 7 0,79 0,129
Seattle (Kingcounty1, 2024; Kingcounty2, 2025; Kingcounty3, 2022; 76 1,76 7 0,09 0,026
Kingcounty4, 2025)
Ankara (EGO1, 2023; Keskin and Hatipoğlu, 2021) 65 1,39 3 0,47 0,004
Montreal (Stm1, 2023; Stm2, 2025; Stm3, 2024; Stm4, 2024) 65 1,88 3 0,68 0,018
Barcelona (TMB, 2019; TMB1, 2024; TMB2, 2023; TMB3, 2025) 80 4,12 5 0,22 0,026
Lisbon (Vicente et al., 2020b; Carris, 2025; Carris1, 2025; Carris2, 2022; 70 1,76 4 0,46 0,020
Carris3, 2025)
Vancouver (Translink, 2024; Translink1, 2025; Translink2, 2025; 80 2,27 7 0,49 0,009
Translink3, 2025; Translink4, 2023)

Table 3
City characteristics regarding public transportation (World Population Review, 2024).
Cities Population Geographical location Public transportation governance type
Ankara 5,477,087 Asia-Europe Authority-operator
Barcelona 5,711,917 Europe Operator
Istanbul 16,047,350 Asia-Europe Authority-operator
London 9,748,033 Europe Authority
Lisbon 3,014,607 Europe Authority-operator
Montreal 4,341,638 America Authority-operator
New York 7,613,466 America Authority-operator
Paris 11,276,701 Europe Authority-operator
Seattle 3,549,350 America Authority-operator
Vancouver 2,682,509 America Authority-operator

operational expenses. From the impact perspective, the electric bus

ratio represents the electrification rate of the bus fleet (Buran and
Erçek, 2021).
To provide a comprehensive view, cities of various sizes, ranging
from nearly sixteen million to three million inhabitants (World Pop-
ulation Review, 2024), are included in this study (Hilmola, 2011).
Studies have shown that geographical conditions significantly influence
the characteristics of public transportation systems in cities (Nigro
et al., 2019; Kębłowski, 2020; Black, 2003). To ensure inclusivity,
cities from different continents Europe, America, and Asia were se-
lected. This geographical diversity helps construct more generalized
results. Furthermore, from a governance perspective, both authorities
and operators were chosen to capture a well-rounded view of public Fig. 3. Business model framework.
transportation systems for modeling passenger satisfaction. Table 3 out-
lines the city populations, geographical locations, and the governance Table 4
types of the public bus transportation systems under study. Relationship between model criteria with business model dimension.
Criteria Dimension
3.3. Proposed method 𝑋1 : Ratio of driver per vehicle Activity
𝑋2 : Service types Value
The business model provides a structured framework for mapping a 𝑋3 : Ratio of revenue to operational expenses Monetary
company’s operations (Hacklin and Wallnöfer, 2012). It enables busi- 𝑋4 : Electric bus ratio of the fleet Impact

nesses to adapt to changing conditions, including political, economic,

social, technological, legal, and environmental factors (Kandachar and
Halme, 2017). This adaptive process is known as business model in- dimensions of the business model: activities, value, and monetary.
novation in the literature (Ibarra et al., 2018). The business model is Additionally, an impact dimension is incorporated to analyze the con-
composed of three core dimensions activity, value, and monetary which tribution of green transportation solutions. The selected criteria and
form a unified framework (Al-Debei and Avison, 2010). The framework,
corresponding business model dimensions are summarized in Table 4.
as illustrated in Fig. 3, can be customized based on the specific business
The activity dimension of the business model framework includes
structure, with additional dimensions incorporated as needed (Teece,
key activities, key resources, and key partners (Osterwalder and Pigneur,
2010; Foss and Saebi, 2015).
Regarding Fig. 3, the activity dimension includes key activities, key 2010). In the context of public transportation, bus and driver numbers
resources, and key partners. The value dimension encompasses value are considered key resources (Andrade-Michel et al., 2021). By combin-
proposition, channels, customer segments, and relationships, while the ing these two indicators, the ratio of drivers per vehicle is defined under
monetary dimension consists of cost and revenue streams (Osterwalder the activity dimension (Badami and Haider, 2007). Measuring the value
and Pigneur, 2010). dimension is more challenging than the activity and monetary dimen-
Passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation is modeled using sions due to the difficulty in defining measurable indicators (Dell Olio
a multi-linear regression model based on the business model frame- et al., 2017). According to the literature, various types of services,
work. The model’s criteria are selected to align with the three main such as express lines, night services, and high-frequency routes, can

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Fig. 4. Proposed method.

be considered under the value dimension (Zografos et al., 2008). From • 𝑌 represents the dependent variable,
a financial perspective, the income-to-expense ratio is commonly used • 𝛽0 is the intercept,
to assess financial sustainability (Abdi, 2010; Lindsay et al., 2021). • 𝛽i the coefficient of the 𝑖th independent variable Xi,
Public transportation systems often face a shortfall in covering expenses • 𝜀 the error in data.
due to lower revenue. To address this, subsidies from local or central
governments are typically required to maintain operations (dos Santos Further details on MLR can be found in the study by Helsel and
Hirsch (1992). While MLR extends simple linear regression, it al-
and Lima, 2021).
lows for the inclusion of multiple independent variables, providing a
Factor analysis is applied to select the model criteria based on
more comprehensive explanation of the factors influencing passenger
the main dimensions of the business model. In the literature, factor
satisfaction (Sachindra et al., 2013).
analysis is widely used to identify the criteria set that best represents a
given model (Kline, 2014). There are two main types of factor analysis: 𝑌 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑋1 + 𝛽2𝑋2 + 𝛽3𝑋3 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑖𝑋𝑖 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑛𝑋𝑛 + 𝜀 (1)
Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis Once the results are obtained, the 𝑝-value of each criterion is
(CFA) (MAI and WEN, 2013). EFA is used to determine the most evaluated. Criteria with a 𝑝-value smaller than 0.05 are retained in
representative criteria for the proposed model, while CFA is employed the model, while those exceeding this threshold are removed, and the
to assess the model’s fit. Although both methods are powerful statistical model is restructured accordingly (Maneejuk and Yamaka, 2021). Next,
techniques, they serve different purposes (Suhr, 2006). In this study, the correlation between the accepted criteria is examined based on Ta-
EFA is applied to identify the factor structure within a set of variables, ble 5. If the correlation coefficient exceeds 0.6, the criterion is excluded
determine the number of latent constructs, and exclude variables that to avoid multicollinearity issues (Asuero et al., 2006); otherwise, it is
do not effectively contribute to the model. retained in the model. Finally, the results are analyzed to assess the
Although regression methods are widely used to model customer influence of each variable on passenger satisfaction, providing insights
satisfaction across various fields, including education, finance, trans- into the key factors shaping public transportation experiences. To eval-
portation, and technology, there remains a gap in applying a business uate the applicability of the proposed model, various statistical tests
model approach (Kundi et al., 2014; Belás and Gabčová, 2016; Islam are conducted, including the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Skewness and
et al., 2014; Iberahim et al., 2016). This study aims to bridge that gap Kurtosis test, Homoscedasticity test, and Mean Absolute Error (Berger
by modeling passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation through and Zhou, 2014; Bai and Ng, 2005; Jamshidian and Jalal, 2010).
a multi-linear regression framework grounded in the business model For performance comparison, the proposed model is evaluated against
alternative models using key metrics such as Mean Squared Error
approach. The proposed methodology is illustrated in Fig. 4.
(MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determina-
According to Fig. 4, a comprehensive literature review on passen-
tion (𝑅2 ) (Ometov et al., 2022; Yan et al., 2024). These comparisons
ger satisfaction modeling is conducted. Based on insights from the
help assess the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed approach in
literature and the author’s experience, key criteria for the model are modeling passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation.
defined. Following this, the data collection process begins, utilizing Finally, the proposed model, along with an explanation of its vari-
secondary data sourced from public transportation authorities and ables, is presented below in Eq. (2).
operators’ websites across various cities.
Before applying multiple linear regression (MLR), factor analysis is 𝑌 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑋1 + 𝛽2𝑋2 + 𝛽3𝑋3 + 𝛽4𝑋4 + 𝜀 (2)
performed on the selected criteria to determine the optimal number The dependent variable, 𝑌 , represents passenger satisfaction score
of factors to retain and to assess their representativeness within the in public bus transportation. This measure serves as a crucial tool for
model (Yan et al., 2024). Once the factor analysis is completed, the evaluating how effectively the public bus system meets users’ expecta-
MLR model is developed using the collected data. The mathematical tions and needs based on key criteria such as frequency, comfort, travel
definition of the MLR model is presented in Eq. (1), where: time, and accessibility.

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Table 5
Strength correlation (Asuero et al., 2006).
Size of r Interpretation
0.90 to 1.00 Very high correlation
0.70 to 0.89 High correlation
0.50 to 0.69 Moderate correlation
0.30 to 0.49 Low correlation
0.00 to 0.29 Little if any correlation

Table 6
Mean Squared Adequacy (MSA).
MSA Including all criteria Removing 𝑋3
overall 0.55 0.67
𝑋1 0.62 0.68
𝑋2 0.64 0.64
𝑋3 0.43 –
𝑋4 0.54 0.68
Fig. 5. Factor loadings for variables.

Table 7
Independent variables are identified to encompass various fac-
Regression statistics for all variables.
tors influencing satisfaction, including frequency, reliability, travel
Statistics Output
time, comfort, accessibility, sustainability, and environmental con-
Multiple R 0.991995455
cerns (Delitz, 2023; Chen et al., 2022a; Etukudoh et al., 2024; Kremb-
R square 0.984054983
sler et al., 2024). These variables are defined as follows: 𝑋1 : Ratio of Adjusted square 0.971298969
drivers per vehicle, representing operational efficiency, 𝑋2 : Availability Standard error 1.292192782
of different service types, such as express lines, night services, and Observations 10

high-frequency routes, 𝑋3 : Ratio of revenue to operational expenses,

including costs related to drivers, fuel, and maintenance, which reflects
financial sustainability, and 𝑋4 : Electric bus ratio in the fleet, indicat- To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, key perfor-
ing the level of transition to environmentally friendly transportation mance indicators are examined, including the overall variance ex-
solutions. plained by 𝑅2 , the significance of the model using the F-test, and the
significance of the criteria based on the 𝑝-value (Plonsky and Ghanbar,
4. Results and discussion 2018; Pantouvakis and Lymperopoulos, 2008).
Regarding Table 7, which presents the model summary results,
Bus passenger satisfaction is modeled using the multi-linear regres- 𝑅2 indicates a high amount of explained variance for the proposed
sion method based on business model dimensions. The proposed model model (Dow et al., 2008). Additionally, in Table 8, the significance
is validated through ten city case studies. The dependent variable is F is lower than the threshold, confirming the acceptability of the
the passenger bus satisfaction score, while the independent variables model (Ritter and Muñoz-Carpena, 2013). Lastly, p-values for the in-
dependent variables are analyzed in Table 9. Given that the 𝑝-value
include the ratio of drivers per vehicle, the availability of different
for 𝑋3 is higher than 0.05, the 𝑋3 variable is removed from the
service types, the ratio of revenue to operational expenses, and the
model (Maneejuk and Yamaka, 2021).
electric bus ratio within the fleet.
The proposed model is reconstructed after removing the X3 variable
Factor analysis is commonly used to identify variable structures and
after that new results are shown in Tables 10, 11, and 12 as above.
relationships before modeling defined problems (Cudeck, 2000; Kline,
𝑅2 is consistent with the acceptance of the model, performing
2014). In this study, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is applied to
exceptionally well with a high value of ninety-eight percent (Dow et al.,
determine factor loadings for each variable, assessing their ability to
2008). According to the results in Table 10, passenger satisfaction
represent the model (Cudeck, 2000). The analysis is conducted under
can be explained by three independent variables 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , and 𝑋4 with
two scenarios: one including all variables and the other excluding 𝑋3 .
ninety-eight percent of the variance, while the remaining two percent
The comparative results are presented in Table 6.
is attributed to factors outside the scope of the study. Additionally,
Regarding Table 6, when all criteria are included, the overall Mea- the significance of the model is strong, as indicated in Table 11 (Shen
sure of Sampling Adequacy (MSA) is 0.55, which is considered unac- and Faraway, 2004). When analyzing the p-values for the independent
ceptable. Therefore, it is necessary to remove the 𝑋3 criterion due to variables, all p-values are below 0.05 (Maneejuk and Yamaka, 2021),
its lower MSA value (Kaiser, 1974). After excluding 𝑋3 from the model, as shown in Table 12. Given that the p-values for 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , and 𝑋4 are
the overall MSA improves to 0.67, which falls within the acceptable all below 0.05, these variables are accepted as significant independent
range for factor analysis (Kaiser, 1974; D’haenens et al., 2010). variables for the proposed model.
Additionally, the factor loadings for each variable are presented in To prevent multicollinearity among the independent variables,
Fig. 5. According to the literature, it is recommended that the factor which occurs when there is a high correlation between them, the cor-
loading for variables should be at least greater than 0.40 (Murtagh relation coefficient (r-value) is examined (Nathans et al., 2012). After
and Heck, 2012). However, many studies suggest that factor loadings reviewing the model results, a correlation test is conducted between the
greater than or equal to 0.60 are considered optimal for effectively independent variables, as shown in Table 13. The correlation values
representing the variables (Field, 2024; Fidell, 2001). between the selected independent variables range from 0.39 to 0.46,
After applying the factor analysis, the multi-linear regression indicating a low positive correlation. These values are consistent with
method is used to model passenger satisfaction in public bus transporta- the findings in Asuero’s study (Nickolas and Mansa, 2021; Asuero et al.,
tion. To compare the results with the factor analysis, the regression 2006).
method is applied in two scenarios: one that includes all criteria and The correlation between the variables is visualized as a heatmap in
another that excludes 𝑋3 . Fig. 6. The correlation value of 0.46 between 𝑋2 and 𝑋4 is considered

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Table 8
ANOVA results 1 for all variables.
Item df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 515.2511891 128.8127973 77.14439724 0.000111085
Residual 5 8.348810923 1.669762185
Total 9 523.6

Table 9
ANOVA results 2 for all variables.
Item Coefficients Standard error t Stat 𝑃 -value Lower 95 Upper 95
Intercept 48.43783065 1.904408467 25.4345806 1.75394E−06 43.54239284 53.33326847
𝑋1 3.746470033 0.560201202 6.687722229 0.001130117 2.306426998 5.186513068
𝑋2 3.215054314 0.2688388548 11.97910393 7.14975E−05 2.525139587 3.904969041
𝑋3 3.135040153 2.434830506 1.287580448 0.254265647 −3.123890918 9.393971224
𝑋4 −47.44251809 16.57985188 −2.861456087 0.035346172 −90.06238419 −4.822652004

Table 10 terms is constant across observations, while the runs test evaluates
Regression statistics for 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , and 𝑋4 variables.
whether the residuals are randomly distributed (Saleh and Rosli, 2024).
Statistics Output
The test results are as follows: The homoscedasticity test was conducted
Multiple R 0,98932707 using the Breusch–Pagan (BP) and White tests. The BP value for the
R square 0,978768051
Adjusted square 0,968152076 Breusch–Pagan test is 2.3911 with a 𝑝-value of 0.4953, and for the
Standard error 1,361191179 White test, BP is 1.3376 with a 𝑝-value of 0.5123. Since both p-
Observations 10 values are greater than 0.05, we conclude that the proposed model
exhibits homoscedasticity, meaning the error terms have a consistent
distribution (Jamshidian and Jalal, 2010). Additionally, the runs test
on the proposed model yielded a Standard Normal value of −0.56195
with a 𝑝-value of 0.5741. Given the 𝑝-value is greater than 0.05, we
can conclude that the residuals follow a random distribution (Yürekli
et al., 2005).
Finally, the regression equation is defined with Eq. (3) as follows.
Based on Eq. (3), it can be stated that the contribution of 𝑋1 toward 𝑌
is 3.6 units, 𝑋2 toward 𝑌 is 3.17 units, and 𝑋4 toward 𝑌 is −35 units.
At this point, we can conclude that when 𝑋1 and 𝑋2 have a positive
impact, 𝑋4 has a negative impact on passenger satisfaction in public
bus transportation.

𝑌 = 50 + 3.6𝑋1 + 3.17𝑋2 − 35𝑋4 (3)

From the hypothesis perspective, H1 and H2 are accepted, while H3

and H4 are not accepted. H3 is not accepted due to its higher 𝑝-value,
Fig. 6. Correlation Heatmap for variables in the model. indicating that it does not significantly affect passenger satisfaction.
H4 is rejected because it shows a negative impact on bus passenger
satisfaction. Based on these findings, the schematic representations of
acceptable for modeling, in accordance with literature studies (Sajee- the hypotheses have been updated and are shown in Fig. 9.
vanie, 2020). The proposed multiple linear regression model is compared with the
Additionally, multicollinearity is assessed using the Variance Infla- lasso regression method. The lasso regression method is chosen for the
tion Factor (VIF) (Shrestha, 2020). The VIF values obtained for 𝑋1 , comparison because it helps prevent overfitting through the use of a
𝑋2 , and 𝑋3 are 1.250912, 1.260941, and 1.009001, respectively. These penalty coefficient (Pavlou et al., 2016; McNeish, 2015). The models
results indicate that there is no multicollinearity problem between the are evaluated using various metrics, including Mean Squared Error
independent variables (Daoud, 2017). (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and 𝑅2 (Tatachar, 2021; Chicco
Fig. 7 illustrates the relationships between the independent and et al., 2021). The comparative results are presented in Table 14. Based
dependent variables individually. From the results, we can conclude on the results, the multiple linear regression method outperforms the
that 𝑋2 is the most suitable explanatory variable, with an 𝑅2 value of lasso regression method in two key metrics: MAE and 𝑅2 .
0.8377, outperforming both 𝑋1 and 𝑋4 . While 𝑋4 may not make sense
In summary, this study concludes that increasing the ratio of bus
in isolation, it contributes meaningfully when included alongside 𝑋1
drivers per vehicle and offering different types of services positively
and 𝑋2 .
impact passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation. However,
When all variables are considered in the model, Fig. 8 is generated.
This figure demonstrates that the data aligns well with the proposed increasing the ratio of electric buses in the fleet has a negative effect on
model, as indicated by the relatively low residuals, which are rep- satisfaction. Although the coefficient for 𝑋4 (electric bus ratio) is larger,
resented by the vertical distance between the data points and the indicating a stronger effect, the significance level of the coefficient
regression line (Dielman, 2005). should also be considered when interpreting these results (Clogg et al.,
For the validity of the proposed model, several statistical tests are 1995). On the financial side, the ratio of revenues to operational costs
applied, as outlined in the literature, including homoscedasticity and does not significantly contribute to satisfaction modeling due to its
runs tests (Jamshidian and Jalal, 2010; Kamel and Abonazel, 2023). higher 𝑝-value, suggesting it has no meaningful impact on passenger
The homoscedasticity test assesses whether the variance of the error satisfaction (Kwak, 2023; Neumann et al., 2020).

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Table 11
ANOVA results 1 for 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , and 𝑋4 variables.
Item df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 515.2511891 128.8127973 77.14439724 0.000111085
Residual 5 8.348810923 1.669762185
Total 9 523.6

Table 12
ANOVA results 2 for 𝑋1 , 𝑋2 , and 𝑋4 variables.
Item Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95 Upper 95
Intercept 50,03452694 1,522507873 32,86323035 5,28112E−08 46,30908438 53,75996949
𝑋1 3,60521514 0,57868773 6,229983828 0,000791066 2,189217276 5,021213003
𝑋2 3,166886648 0,279959673 11,31193867 2,85635E−05 2,481850007 3,851923289
𝑋4 −34,9895846 14,18577585 −2,466525975 0,048686537 −69,70092765 −0,278241562

Fig. 7. The relationship between the independent and dependent variables separately.

Table 13 In this study, the selected criteria namely, the ratio of driver per ve-
Correlation between independent variables in the model (Asuero et al., 2006).
hicle, service types, ratio of revenue to operational expenses, and elec-
Column1 Column2 Column3 tric bus ratio of the fleet are defined as umbrella criteria that encompass
Column1 1 many of the key factors identified in the literature. For example, if the
Column2 0.44844986 1
ratio of driver per vehicle meets the defined target, planned trips are
Column3 0.39401205 0.46046097 1
carried out according to the schedule, which positively impacts fre-
quency, reliability, travel time, and comfort (Delitz, 2023; Sindzingre,
2019). Increased network coverage, which is supported by the intro-
4.1. Theoretical implications duction of different types of services such as night lines, express lines,
and feeder lines, positively impacts accessibility (Chen et al., 2022a).
According to the literature, the most commonly used criteria for From a sustainability perspective, fleet electrification is recognized as
modeling satisfaction in public transportation systems include availabil- a key issue for sustainable transportation solutions (Etukudoh et al.,
ity, frequency, reliability, accessibility, travel time, waiting time, safety, 2024). Similarly, finance can be viewed through a sustainability lens,
comfort, information, and ticket price (Quddus et al., 2019; Eboli and where the ratio of revenue to operational expenses accounts for ticket
Mazzulla, 2007; Weng et al., 2023). While these criteria are generally pricing and diverse revenue sources (Krembsler et al., 2024).
applicable across different modes of transportation, there are minor The business model approach has been widely used in evaluating
differences in their application depending on the mode. For example, customer satisfaction by incorporating various elements such as loyalty,
when measuring satisfaction for public bus transportation systems, cri- customer value, resource management, partnership networks, customer
teria such as driver behavior, network coverage, travel speed, bus stops, segments, and financial structure (Williams and Naumann, 2011; Pyn-
and environmental protection are often considered. In contrast, for nönen et al., 2012; Patterson et al., 1997; Ramasamy et al., 2024;
multi-modal transportation systems, criteria like integration, transfer Aimee, 2019). While there have been numerous studies on passenger
convenience, station environment, and overall travel time performance, satisfaction in public transportation, a comprehensive, holistic perspec-
including access and egress time, are more commonly prioritized. The tive is often lacking. This study addresses this gap by employing a
convergence and divergence of satisfaction criteria between bus and business model approach that encompasses not only operational factors
multi-modal transportation systems are summarized in Fig. 10. but also financial and impact-related elements. Specifically, impact

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

Fig. 8. Actual values versus estimated values by the proposed model.

Table 14
Comparative model results.
Metrics Multiple linear regression method Lasso regression method
Mean squared error (MSE) 2.183905 1.828121
Mean absolute error (MEA) 0.8244198 1.340399
𝑅2 0.968 0.8507656

criteria are frequently overlooked in passenger satisfaction research. To

fill this gap, this study introduces the electric bus ratio of the fleet as an
impact criterion, aiming to explore its effect on passenger satisfaction
in public transportation systems.
Literature studies indicate that structural equation modeling (SEM)
is the most commonly preferred method for addressing satisfaction
issues in public transportation systems (Putra et al., 2014; Shen et al.,
2016; Eboli and Mazzulla, 2021; Wan et al., 2016; Atombo and We-
megah, 2021). Additionally, regression analysis is another widely used
method (Mouwen, 2015; Zefreh et al., 2020). Various forms of regres-
sion, including multivariate and logistic regression, have been applied
Fig. 9. Schematic representation of the hypotheses after model results. and validated in the literature for assessing satisfaction (Chen et al.,
2022b; Maciejewska et al., 2023; Guan et al., 2024). In this study,
multi-linear regression is employed alongside lasso regression to com-
pare performance metrics. Lasso regression is chosen for this compari-
son due to its effectiveness in handling low-dimensional data (Safi et al.,
2023).
The proposed hypotheses and their results are evaluated in light
of existing literature studies. Reliability, comfort, and accessibility are
commonly used to assess satisfaction in public transportation systems,
as evidenced by Tanwar and Agarwal (2024, 2025), which aligns with
this study’s findings. Additionally, the authors incorporate safety, clean-
liness, and customer service as determinants of satisfaction (Van Lierop
and El-Geneidy, 2016). Hypotheses H1 and H2 suggest that increasing
the ratio of bus drivers per vehicle and offering different types of ser-
vices positively influence passenger satisfaction, particularly in relation
to reliability, comfort, and accessibility, which are considered umbrella
criteria. In support of H1, Parkan (2002) demonstrates a connection
between the number of drivers and improved reliability, while Ni
Fig. 10. Convergence and divergence satisfaction criteria for bus and multi-modal
transport.
et al. (2020) highlights the role of comfort in enhancing reliability.
Similarly, Yap (2020), Yap and Cats (2022) and Marra and Corman
(2020) argue that disruptions in planned trips have a negative impact
on passenger satisfaction, reinforcing the conclusion of Hypothesis 1.

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

On the other hand, dos Santos and Lima (2021) identifies the number For profit-driven companies, covering operational costs without
of bus stops as a crucial factor in network coverage, which impacts subsidies is a standard requirement. However, in the public trans-
accessibility. Furthermore, dos Santos and Lima (2021) emphasizes that portation sector, services must continue under any circumstances,
accessibility is a foundational requirement for public transportation even during crises like COVID-19 (Gkiotsalitis and Cats, 2021). De-
systems. In line with Hypothesis 2, Yang et al. (2019) shows that spite a global decline in transportation demand by nearly ninety
express lines positively influence public transportation performance, percent, public transportation systems continued to operate (Zhang
confirming the validity of the hypothesis in this study. and Hayashi, 2022). In these challenging times, both central and local
Public transportation services are often subsidized by the govern- governments support transportation systems to ensure their contin-
ment to offset operational costs (Sun et al., 2016; Serebrisky et al., ued operation. Consequently, the gap between operational costs and
2009; Yen et al., 2024). The level of subsidization can vary depending revenue is bridged through government subsidies, making the H3
on the passenger profile of different cities (Parry and Small, 2009; hypothesis inapplicable.
Börjesson et al., 2020). As a result, the ratio of revenue to operational From an impact perspective, the inclusion of the electric bus (e-
expenses, which corresponds to Hypothesis H3, could not be effectively bus) ratio in the proposed model revealed that the H4 hypothesis has
analyzed in this study due to the significant impact of subsidies. For a negative effect on passenger satisfaction. This can be attributed to
instance, dos Santos and Lima (2021) highlights that in cities such as the very low proportion of electric buses in the fleet, ranging from 0 to
Prague, Turin, and Warsaw, government subsidies cover seventy-four, 0.03, which does not contribute significantly to the model (Dang and
sixty-eight, and sixty percent of operational costs, respectively. This Lanjouw, 2023). Consequently, the model results are not aligned with
variation in subsidies makes it difficult to accurately assess the direct the general inclination of transit operators and authorities, who tend to
relationship between revenue and operational expenses in these cases. view the introduction of electric buses as a positive factor for improving
Lastly, the results of the H4 hypothesis are not aligned with the service quality and sustainability. Most transit operators and authorities
findings of Lin et al. (2014) and Lin and Zhu (2019). Since the pro- have set ambitious green bus targets. For example, RATP, the transport
portion of electric vehicles in the data is low (e.g., 0, 0.003, 0.009), its authority for Paris, has announced that 4700 clean energy buses will
impact on passenger satisfaction may not be fully evident (Cinca et al., be deployed in the Paris Region by 2025 (Ratp2, 2024). Similarly,
2005; Sullivan and Feinn, 2012). However, literature studies generally TfL, the public transportation authority for London, operates 1000
suggest that green transportation solutions, such as electric vehicles, zero-emission buses and aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by
contribute to increased passenger satisfaction (Ghimire and Khanal, 2030 (TfL, 2016). TMB, the transport operator for Barcelona, has in-
2019; Khan et al., 0000; Vicente et al., 2020a). The low adoption of troduced zero-emission routes equipped with fast-charging capabilities
electric vehicles in the sample may limit the observable impact of this while in service (TMB4, 2025).
factor on satisfaction in the present study. The public bus transport satisfaction problem is modeled using a
business model approach, offering a holistic perspective for both transit
operators and authorities. This approach incorporates not only opera-
4.2. Managerial implications
tional criteria but also monetary and impact-related factors. The uni-
fied framework presented in Al-Debei and Avison (2010) supports the
Surveys are commonly used to evaluate customer satisfaction in
methodology of this study. The model’s criteria are defined based on
public transportation systems (Soza-Parra et al., 2019; Githui et al.,
literature studies, covering commonly used factors such as frequency,
2009; Islam, 2021). Many transport operators and authorities, such
comfort, time, and accessibility (Putra et al., 2014; Shen et al., 2016;
as IETT (2025), TFL (2023), MTA (2024), Ratp3 (2022), Kingcounty1
Tanwar and Agarwal, 2024; Eboli and Mazzulla, 2021; Van Lierop and
(2024), Keskin and Hatipoğlu (2021), Stm3 (2024), TMB (2019), Vi- El-Geneidy, 2016).
cente et al. (2020b) and Translink (2024), rely on these surveys to The results indicate that the activity and value dimensions have
assess service quality. These surveys play a crucial role in identifying a positive effect on passenger satisfaction, with nearly similar effects
areas for improvement and enhancing satisfaction within the transport across both. However, the impact dimension shows a negative effect
system (Wisniewski, 2001). With this perspective, the study incorpo- with a higher probability value, suggesting the need for further analysis
rates operational criteria via resources under activity and service types with larger datasets to better understand this criterion (Khalilzadeh
under value dimensions. and Tasci, 2017). While the results of this study are not generalizable
From a managerial perspective, Brunoro et al. (2015) emphasized due to the limited dataset, they provide valuable insights similar to
that bus drivers play a critical role in transportation services, and their other studies with restricted data in the literature (Kumar et al., 2016;
working conditions significantly influence service quality. Factors such Ahmed et al., 2008; Pucher and Kurth, 1995; Sun and Cui, 2018).
as break periods, sick leave, and holiday permissions are integral to Future studies with more extensive data could expand the scope of
driver working conditions (Kompier, 1996). In line with this, Mon- this research, making the findings more widely applicable to public
talva et al. (2010) highlighted that the assignment of work shifts is transportation systems.
an essential factor for passenger satisfaction, supporting the proposed
Hypothesis 1. 5. Conclusion and future works
For Hypothesis H2, offering varied bus services, such as express,
night, and airport lines, caters to different passenger needs, thereby Passenger satisfaction in public bus transportation is modeled us-
enhancing customer satisfaction (Tuan et al., 2022). By providing a ing the business model approach, with the multiple linear regression
range of services, not only is network coverage expanded, but it also method employed for analysis. The model criteria are defined across
allows for more effective planning based on passenger demand Ibrahim four key business model blocks: activity, value, monetary, and impact.
(2003), Land et al. (2001) and Godier and Tapie (2020). This approach Operational factors are categorized under the activity block, while
leads to the efficient use of resources, taking passenger behavior into value propositions, such as express and night lines, are placed under the
account, and contributes to urban mobility (Ceder, 2021). value block. The monetary block includes aspects like cost and revenue
Subsidies from local or central governments are essential for cover- flows, and the impact block focuses on green transportation solutions,
ing operational costs in public transportation systems (dos Santos and such as the ratio of electric buses in the fleet. These criteria are
Lima, 2021; White, 2016; Hudspeth and Wellman, 2018). According selected based on a comprehensive literature review and the author’s
to dos Santos and Lima (2021), subsidies account for more than fifty experience.
percent of costs in cities like Prague, Turin, and Warsaw in Europe. This Before modeling the criteria as independent variables, exploratory
context helps explain why the H3 hypothesis is not acceptable. factor analysis is conducted to assess the structure and relationships

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B. Buran Case Studies on Transport Policy 21 (2025) 101472

between the variables. Four hypotheses related to passenger satisfaction Andrade-Michel, A., Ríos-Solís, Y.A., Boyer, V., 2021. Vehicle and reliable driver
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Asuero, A.G., Sayago, A., González, A., 2006. The correlation coefficient: An overview.
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According to the results, hypotheses H1 and H2 are accepted, while Atombo, C., Wemegah, T.D., 2021. Indicators for commuter’s satisfaction and usage
H3 and H4 are not. The findings show that the ratio of drivers per of high occupancy public bus transport service in ghana. Transp. Res. Interdiscip.
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Declaration of competing interest is more informative than SMAPE, MAE, MAPE, MSE and RMSE in regression
analysis evaluation. Peerj Comput. Sci. 7, e623.
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan- Cinca, C.S., Molinero, C.M., Larraz, J.G., 2005. Country and size effects in financial
ratios: A European perspective. Glob. Financ. J. 16 (1), 26–47.
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
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