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Statistics Probab Module 1

About statistic and probobility it can help student to read in advace for their subject.............

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
8 views48 pages

Statistics Probab Module 1

About statistic and probobility it can help student to read in advace for their subject.............

Uploaded by

landichoangel18
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

What is Statistics?

Statistic is an applied
branch of mathematics that
involves collection of data,
analysis, interpretation and
presentation of data to
make decisions. It is a
mathematical analysis
representing quantitative
models.
What is quantitative To summarize the
model? It is an meaning,quantitative
interpretation of data modelshold inherent
sets using mathematical flaws whichmaysurpass
formulas to identify the or exceed into decision
trends. making, that could cause
a potential mishap.
Example of Statistics:
The latestsalesdatahave
justcame in, and your
employer wantsyou to
prepare a reporton howthe
companycould improve its
business.
Whatshould youlookfor?
We have to look for
relevant informationabout
howmuchwas the
previousor latest sales,
whatare the reasons why
saleswentdownand why
we have to do analysis to
help sales to go up.
What is Probability?
Probability is primarily a
theoretical branch of
mathematics concerning
description of how likely an
event is to occur.It allows us to
use information and data to
make intelligent statements and
forecast future events. It tells us
how often some event will
happen after repeated trials.
Example:
Onrolling adice,
you get 6 possible
outcomes.
Each possibility
only hasone
outcome,so each
dice hasprobability
of1/6
Forexample,the
probabilityof
getting a number2
onthe dice is 1/6
Objectives
Statistics:
• To define and quantifydata need to
be collected.
• To analyze the obtained data.
• To learn howto use statistical data on
drawing conclusion.

Probability:
• To define the principal conceptsabout
probability.
• To express the concept ofprobability
• To help us understandwhich choices
are safe and whichchoicesare risky.
Although Statistics and
Probability have fundamental
differences the way we see and
discussed, these two are related So how we can define Statistics
areas of mathematics which and Probability?
concerns with analyzing the
relative frequency of events.And
both subjects are important,
relevant,and useful to us.
What is Statistic and
Probability? Statistics & Probability
is the branchof
mathematics that
includes collection of
analysis and
interpretationof
mathematical data use to
draw conclusions and
decisions by considering
the laws governing
random events.
Importanceof
Statistics and
Probability
Importance ofStatistics and
Probability:
1. Weather Forecasting
2. Research
3. Insurance companies
4. Business and Traders
5. Medical Field
6.ProductionCompanies
7. Politics
1.Weatherforecasting
On weather forecasting, everybodyisconcernto know what
will be the weather for the next day,and Statisticsand
Probabilityhelps Weather Forcasters to predict future
weather.
In safety, oftentimes, we rely on
announcements fromcertain agencies
or departments to send out reports
regarding information on natural
calamities like typhoons.
Without records and formulas,
forecasters will be unable to predict
when the latest storm is coming. We
won’t be able to make the necessary
precautions when a thunderstorm or
strong typhoon strikes. Statistics, in this
sense, gives us aheads up so we can
prepare better in case of emergencies.
2. Researchers
Theyuse their statistical skills to collect relevant data to
complete their researchworks.
Reason 1: Statistics
allows researchers to
In the field of research, design studies such
statistics is important that the findings from
for the following the studies can be
reasons: extrapolated (estimate
or conclude and
define)froma larger
population.

Reason 2: Statistics
allows researchers to Reason 3: Statistics
performhypothesis allows researchers to
teststo determine if create confidence
some claimabouta intervals to capture
new drug, new uncertaintyaround
procedure, new population estimates.
manufacturing method
is true.
3. InsuranceCompanies
Insurance companiesuse statistical models to calculate risk
of giving insurance onindividual application.
Actuary is a Actuaries use
personwith mathematicsand
expertise inthe statistics to For example, if
fields of estimate financial Without an auto
economics, impact of
uncertaintyand Actuaries, there insurance policy
statistics and helpclients will be some risk holdergoes into
mathematics, minimize risk. They that will cause debt, he maybe
who helps inrisk asses andmanage insurance more likelyto file
assessment and the risks of financial companyto a false claim on
estimationof investments, potential his vehicle to
premiums for an insurance policies buncruptcy. make money.
insurance andother
business. potential y risky
ventures.
4. Businessmenand Traders
Statisticsisthe keyon how traders and businessmeninvest
and make moneyinfinancial markets.
Statistical analysis is
the process of
collecting and
analyzing data to When managers
identify patterns and analyze statistical
trends. Statistical research in business,
research in business they determine how to
enables managers to proceed in areas
analyze past includingauditing,
performance,predict financial analysis and
future business marketing research.
environments and lead
organizations
effectively.
5. Medical Field
Onmedical field, scientists use statistical valid rates of
effectiveness before theyprescribe drugs. Vaccinesare
tested forlong time. Actuallyit hasto take 10 to 15 years to
make researchand test.
In
epidemiology, probability
theory is used to
understand the relationship
between exposures and the
risk of health effects.
The methods and tools of
biostatistics are extensively
used to understand disease
development, uncoverthe
etiology (orthecauses ofa
disease), and evaluate the
development ofnew
strategiesof preventionand
control ofthedisease.
6. ProductionCompanies
Productioncompanies makesqualitytesting using
statistical samplesto make sure that theysell best
qualityproducts.
7. Politics
During the electionperiod,
theyused to make
prediction onwhowil win
using statistical datafrom
surveys,and collectionof
informationof each
candidates.

Statisticians are getting


informationthatfuels political
theory,campaignstrategy,
and policydevelopment.
Random
- is lack of definite intention without any planning.
It can be attained by chance or accidental.
Variable
- it is an element or value that is not consistent
and liable to change.
Random Variable
- is a variable whose value is dependent to the
outcome of awell-defined random event or
experiment.
Two kinds ofvariable
1. Qualitative Variable
is variable that pertains to thequality.

2. Quantitative Variable
is variable that capableof being measured or
counted.
Two types ofvariable
1. Discrete Variable
2. Continues Variable
1. Discrete Variable
is aquantitative variable whose value canbe attained
throughcounting. It can be finite in number of possible
values.
Example:
 Number of chairsina classroom
 Studentsunder STEMstrand
 Number of people recovered from COVID-19
 Number of childrenin the family
 Textbooks required in Statistics
 Ballpenin abox
2. Continuous Variable
is a variable thatcanassume aninfinitymany,unaccountable numbers
or real number ofvalues.
Example:
 Age of a child
 Weight of aperson
 Height of anelf
 Frequencyof earthquake
 Distance travelled bya vehicle
 Amount of rainthat falls ina storm.
 The speed of cars
 Time to wake up
Activity 1
Identifywhether each variable is
discrete or continuous:
1. Timerequiredfor avehicletocover amile.
2. Number of airplanesin an airport.
3. Population of antsinsideacave
4. Beesin abeehive
5. Volumeof water in apond
6. Exactageof ababy
7. Gray Hair strandof an oldwoman
8. Altitudeof amountain
9. Dosageof medicine
10. Body Temperature
Activity 1:
1. Give the importance of Statistics and Probabilities
in yourown life and explain in brief.
2. Give 20 examples of Discrete and Continuous
Variables.
Possible values of Random Variable
– arevaluesthatareobtainedfromfunctionsthatare
assignareal number toeachpoint of asample
space.
SampleSpace
– isthesetof all possibleoutcomesof theevents.
Probability Distribution Function
– isafunctionP(X)thatshowstherelative
probability that eachoutcomeof anexperiment
will happen.
Illustrative Example:
If abasketball teamwill play for three
consecutivegamesandif Wstandsfor awin
andL standsfor aloss, thepossiblesample
spaceof theresultsof 3consecutivegamesis:
[WWW, WWL, WLW, LWW, WLL, LWL, LLW, LLL]
Note:
Wecanassignnumericvaluesof these
outcomesas1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Thusthereare8
possibleoutcomes, or 8elementsinthe
samplespaceasillustratedby atabulation
below:
Random Variable Probability
Sample Space (x) Distribution
Function[P(X)]
WWW 3
WWL 2
WLW 2
LWW 2
WLL 1
LWL 1
LLW 1
LLL 0
Probability Mass Function
– isaprobability functionof adiscretefunctionof a
discreterandomvariable.
DiscreteProbability Distribution
– isatableof valuesthatshowstheprobability of
any of theoutcomesof anexperiment.
Activity 1:
Construct asamplespaceof tossinga three
unbiasedcoins. DeterminethediscreteProbability
Distribution.
Random Variable Probability
SampleSpace (x) Distribution
Function [P(X)]
TTT 0
TTH 1
THT 1
HTT 1
THH 2
HTH 2
HHT 2
HHH 3
Probability Histogram
P(X)

3/8
1/8

0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 (x)
Exercise1:
Consider tossingapair of unbiasedcoins. Construct
itssamplespaceandassignpossiblevaluesof the
samplepointsor RandomVariables(x)andmakea
Probability DistributionFunctionP(X)for gettinga
Head.
SampleSpace Random Probability
Variable (x) Distribution
Function [P(X)]
TT 0
HT 1
TH 1
HH 2
Probability Histogram
– showstherelativeprobabilitiesof thesample
pointsintheformof abar graph.
P(X)
2/4

1/4

0 (x)
0 1 1 2
Mean
Variance and
Standard
Deviation
IllustrativeExample:
The report of aweather bureau of the forecast of the
number of typhoons entering yhe country’s area of
responsibility is manifested in the following probability
distribuiton:
No.of typhoons per Probability(P(X=x)
month
0 0.15
1 0.35
2 0.30
3 0.10
4 0.10
a.What is the average number of typhoon entering the
country per month?
b.What is the standard deviation?
No.of Probability Mean (
Typhoons
0 0.15 0 ( 0.15) 0.00
1 0.35 1 (0.35) 0.35
2 0.30 2 (0.30) 0.60
3 0.10 3 (0.10) 0.30
4 0.10 4(0,10) 0.4)
Variance(
No. ofTyphoons Probability (P(X= x) Variance
0 0.15 0.4084
1 0.35 0.1479
2 0.30 0.03675
3 0.10 0.18225
4 0.10 0.5452

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