Tutorial 2: Addition Rules, Conditional Probability, Total Probability, Independence,
Bayes’ Theorem
1. The analysis of shafts for a compressor is summarized by conformance to specifications.
roundness conforms
yes no
surface finish yes 345 5
conforms
no 12 8
(a) If a shaft is selected at random, what is the probability that the shaft conforms to surface
finish requirements?
(b) What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to surface finish requirements or to
roundness requirements?
(c) What is the probability that the selected shaft either conforms to surface finish requirements
or does not conform to roundness requirements?
(d) What is the probability that the selected shaft conforms to both surface finish and roundness
requirements?
2. A lot contains 15 castings from a local supplier and 25 castings from a supplier in the next
state. Two castings are selected randomly, without replacement, from the lot of 40.
Let A be the event that the first casting selected is from the local supplier, and let B denote the
event that the second casting is selected from the local supplier. Determine:
(a) P(A) (b) P(B|A)
(c) P(AB) (d) P(AB)
3. A lot of 100 semiconductor chips contains 20 that are defective.
(a) Two are selected, at random, without replacement, from the lot. Determine the probability that
the second chip selected is defective.
(b) Three are selected, at random, without replacement, from the lot. Determine the probability
that all are defective.
4. Samples of emissions from three suppliers are classified for conformance to air-quality
specifications. The results from 100 samples are summarized as follows:
conforms
yes no
supplier 1 22 8
2 25 5
3 30 10
Let A denote the event that a sample is from supplier 1, and let B denote the event that a sample
conforms to specifications.
(a) Are events A and B independent?
(b) Determine P(B|A).
5. Semiconductor lasers used in optical storage products require higher power levels for write
operations than for read operations. High-power-level operations lower the useful life of the laser.
Lasers in products used for backup of higher speed magnetic disks primarily write, and the
probability that the useful life exceeds five years is 0.95. Lasers that are in products that are used
for main storage spend approximately an equal amount of time reading and writing, and the
probability that the useful life exceeds five years is 0.995. Now, 25% of the products from a
manufacturer are used for backup and 75% of the products are used for main storage.
Let A denote the event that a laser’s useful life exceeds five years, and let B denote the
event that a laser is in a product that is used for backup.
Use a tree diagram to determine the following:
(a) P(B) (b) P(A|B)
(c) P(A|B') (d) P(AB)
(e) P(AB') (f ) P(A)
(g) What is the probability that the useful life of a laser exceeds five years?
(h) What is the probability that a laser that failed before five years came from a product used for
backup?
Solutions:
1. Let A refers the event that the surface finish conforms to the specifications and B the
event that the roundness conforms to the specifications. Then,
a) P(A) = 350/370,
b) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = ,
c) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = ,
d) P(AB) = P(A|B).P(B) =
2. a) P(A) = 15/40, b) P(B|A) = 14/39
c) P( ) = P(A) P(B|A) = (15/40) (14/39) = 0.135
d) P( ) = P(A) + P(B) - P( )=
[ P(B) = P(B|A).P(A) + P(B|A).P(A) = ]
3. Let A and B denote the events that the first and second chips selected are defective,
respectively.
a) P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A')P(A') = (19/99)(20/100) + (20/99)(80/100) = 0.2
b) P(all three chips being defective) = = 0.007
Tutorial 2: Solution for Q.4 and Q.5
4. a) P( )= 22/100, P(A) = 30/100, P(B) = 77/100, Then P( ) P(A)P(B), therefore,
A and B are not independent.
b) P(B|A) = P(A B)/P(A) = (22/100)/(30/100) = 0.733
5.
a) P(B) = 0.25,
b) P(A|B) = 0.95,
c) P(A|B') = 0.995
d) P(AB) = P(A|B).P(B) = 0.95(0.25) = 0.2375
e) P(AB ') = P(A|B').P(B') = 0.995(0.75) = 0.74625
f) P(A) = P(AB) + P(AB ') = 0.95(0.25) + 0.995(0.75) = 0.98375
g) 0.95(0.25) + 0.995(0.75) = 0.98375.
h)
