Control Charts and

Process Capability
Prof. Sayak Roychowdhury
Sampling
• It is not always possible to measure quality characteristics
of each item in a population.
• Samples are used to provide information about process or
product characteristics at a fraction of cost.
• Necessary for destructive tests
• A sampling design is a procedure by which the
observations in a sample are chosen from the population
• An element is an object for which data are gathered
• A sampling unit is an individual element or a collection of
elements from a population
• A sampling frame is a list of sampling units
Sampling Errors

Random • Inherent sampling variability, e.g. due to

Variation instrument, people etc.

• Happens in opinion polling, customer satisfaction

Misspecification
survey, incorrect listing of sampling frame

• Happens in sample surveys, cases where

Non responses
measurements not possible
Sampling Methods

Sampling

Simple Random Stratified Cluster

Sampling Sampling Sampling
Simple Random Sampling
• A sample of size 𝑛 is chosen from a fixed population of
size 𝑁. In SRS, each possible sample of size 𝑛 has equal
chance of being selected.
• Random number tables may be used for sampling
• In estimating population mean 𝜇 by the sample mean 𝑋,
the variance of the estimator is given by
𝜎 ̅ (𝑠 sample variance)
(𝑁 𝑛 /𝑁 is called finite population correction factor
Precision is inverse of variance.
Stratified Random Sample
• Useful when the population is heterogeneous, e.g.
production from multiple machines, under multiple
operators, samples from different geographical regions.
• Stratified random samples are obtained by separating the
elements of the population in nonoverlapping groups
(strata).
• Proportional allocation of sample size, for 𝑘 strata, let 𝑁
be the population size of the 𝑖 strata, and ∑ 𝑁 𝑁.
Sample size from each strata:
𝑛 i 1,2, . . k
Stratified Random Sample
• Sample mean and variance of estimator are given by
1
𝑥̅ 𝑁 𝑥̅
𝑁
1 𝑁 𝑛 𝑠
𝑉𝑎𝑟 𝑥̅ 𝑁 , 𝑖 1,2, . . 𝑘
𝑁 𝑁 𝑛
̅
Where x ∑ 𝑥 ,𝑠 ∑
Cluster Sampling
• When a sampling frame is not available or obtaining
samples from all segments of the population is not
feasible due to geographical reasons, cluster sampling is
used.
• Population is divided into groups of elements, called
clusters
• Clusters are randomly selected and a census data is
obtained.
• Sampling error maybe reduced by choosing many small
clusters rather than choosing a large cluster
Example of Cluster Sampling
A researcher wants to conduct a study to judge the performance
of sophomore’s in business education across the India.
By using cluster sampling, the researcher can club the
universities from each city into one cluster (North, South, East,
West regions).
These clusters then define all the sophomore student
population in India.
Next, either using simple random sampling or systematic
random sampling, randomly pick clusters for the research
study.
Subsequently, by using simple or systematic sampling, the
sophomore’s from each of these selected clusters can be
chosen on whom to conduct the research study.
How to choose sample size?
• Bound on error estimation on population mean:
Let there is 1 𝛼 probability that the difference
between the estimated mean and the actual mean is not
greater than 𝐵 (tolerable error bound).
𝜎
𝐵 𝑧 𝜎̅ 𝑧 ⇒
𝑛
𝜎
𝑛 𝑧
𝐵
An analyst wishes to estimate the average bore size of a large casting. Based on historical
data, it is estimated that the standard deviation of the bore size is 4.2 mm. If it is desired to
estimate with a probability of 0.95 the average bore size to within 0.8 mm, find the
appropriate sample size.
How to choose sample size?
• Bound on error estimation on population proportion:
Let there is 1 𝛼 probability that the difference
between the estimated proportion 𝑝̂ and the actual
proportion 𝑝 is not greater than 𝐵 (tolerable error bound).
E.g. proportion of satisfied customers, prop of non
conforming etc.
𝑝 1 𝑝
𝐵 𝑧 𝜎 𝑧 ⇒
𝑛
𝑝 1 𝑝
𝑛 𝑧
𝐵
Either put 𝑝 𝑝̂ (sample proportion) or 𝑝 0.5 for
conservative estimate
Example
We want to estimate with a probability of 0.90 the
proportion of nonconforming tubes to within 4%. How large
a sample should be chosen if no prior information is
available on the process?
How to choose sample size?
• Estimating difference between 2 population means:
𝜎 𝜎
𝑛 𝑧
𝐵
Where B is the tolerance of error for estimating the
difference in population means with sample means

• Estimating difference between 2 population proportions:

𝑝 1 𝑝 𝑝 1 𝑝
𝑛 𝑧
𝐵
7 QC Tools
• Cause and Effect Diagram
• Check Sheet
• Control Chart
• Histogram
• Pareto Chart
• Scatter Diagram
• Stratification / Defect Concentration Diagram
Control Charts
Utility of Control Charts
• Control charts are proven techniques to improve
productivity
• Effective in defect identification and prevention
• Control charts prevent unnecessary process adjustments
• Diagnostic information
• Process capability information
 Rational Subgroups (Section 5.3.4
Montgomery)
• Sampling procedure to ensure that the variation within the
group is only due to chance causes.
• Lots from which the subgroups are chosen should be
homogeneous, e.g. same machine, same operator , same mold
cavity etc.
• Items of any one subgroup should be produced under essentially
same conditions.
• Instant time method: Parts in the subgroup are chosen in the
same time-instant. The next subgroup is picked after a certain
time interval. (Maximum variation among subgroup)
• Period of time method: Subgroups are sampled from parts
produced since the last sample was taken. It is used to make
decisions about acceptance of products produced since the last
inspection.
13.08.2025
In-control or Out of Control
Causes of Variation
Samples maybe out-of-control due to:
• Special Cause or Assignable Cause: Not inherent in the
process, does not affect all the time. It could be the use of
a wrong tool, tool damage, operator mistake, incorrect
measurement etc. Control charts are used to detect the
presence of special causes as soon as possible. Special
causes need to be removed to get the process back to
normality.
• Common Cause: Variability due to common or chance
causes, inherent to a process. It is inherent part of process
design and affects all time. Process need not be changed
due to common cause variations.
Sampling and Inspection
Xbar & R Charting
Subgp. X1 X2 X3 X4 Xbar R
• Step 1. (Startup) Collect data for 25. 1 20.50 3.10 2.10 4.00 7.43 18.40

Xbarbar is grand average, Rbar is... 2

3
1.20
5.40
2.40
2.20
2.40
2.30
1.40
0.20
1.85
2.53
1.20
5.20

• Step 2. (Startup) “Trial” limits: 4

5
1.10
1.40
11.00
6.50
3.10
2.20
1.50
6.50
4.18
4.15
9.90
5.10
6 2.30 2.30 0.30 19.40 6.08 19.10
• Step 3. (Startup) Find out of control 7 13.10 3.10 2.40 0.40 4.75 12.70

signals. Remove if assignable causes 8

9
0.60
1.60
2.10
1.60
3.30
13.10
5.30
0.50
2.82
4.20
4.70
12.60
are found 10 8.10 1.00 2.20 0.10 2.85 8.00
11 3.20 5.30 9.20 1.30 4.75 7.90
• Step 4. (Startup) Revise limits. 12 4.50 5.40 4.50 14.70 7.28 10.20
13 2.40 1.30 0.20 10.30 3.55 10.10

• Step 5. (Steady State) Plot and local 14

15
1.60
3.20
5.40
9.30
3.10
4.00
7.20
2.10
4.32
4.65
5.60
7.20
authority investigates if out-of-control 16 0.20 0.60 1.30 2.60 1.17 2.40

signals occur (can act). 17

18
1.30
2.00
1.30
6.10
5.10
5.10
0.30
5.20
2.00
4.60
4.80
4.10
19 2.30 1.10 6.10 5.20 3.67 5.00
20 2.40 4.60 0.60 6.20 3.45 5.60
21 3.00 1.60 6.50 1.20 3.07 5.30
22 5.60 14.10 6.50 2.30 7.12 11.80
23 0.50 1.10 2.10 1.10 1.20 1.60
24 1.40 3.00 4.40 2.20 2.75 3.00
25 2.30 2.20 1.40 2.40 2.08 1.00
Xbarbar= 3.86 Rbar=7.3
 Trial Limits
d2(n=4) = 2.059
est = 7.300/2.059 = 3.55

D2 = 4.698
10
D1 = 0.000
8
0
UCLXbar = Xbarbar + 3.0 ×
n 6
UCL
Signals on the R chart. Do 4 Xbar
detective work. Overnight
stays. Not fair to keep. 2

So remove. 0
1 6 11 16 21

21

16

11 UC
LR

1
1 6 11 16 21

13.08.2025
 Control Limits of Shewhart Control
Chart

• R chart
• 𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑅 3𝜎 𝐷 𝑅
• 𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑅 3𝜎 𝐷 𝑅
Derivation
•𝑋 ∑ 𝑋 ∑ ∑ 𝑋 Centre Line
• UCL and LCL these are 3 sigma
• 𝑋~𝑁 𝜇, 𝜎 , 𝑋~𝑁 𝜇,
• UCL = 𝑋 3𝜎 = 𝑋 3
• LCL = 𝑋 3𝜎 = 𝑋 3
Derivation
• Relative Range 𝑊 𝑅/𝜎 a random variable
• Parameters of distribution of 𝑊 depend on sample size 𝑛
• Mean of 𝑊 is 𝑑
• Estimator of 𝜎 is 𝜎 𝑅/𝑑 , we may use 𝜎 𝑅 /𝑑 as 𝑅 is
the average range of 𝑚 preliminary samples
• 𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑥̅̅ 3𝜎/ 𝑛 𝑥̅̅ 3𝑅 / 𝑑 𝑛 𝒙 𝑨𝟐 𝑹
• 𝐶𝐿 𝑥̅̅
• 𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑥̅̅ 3𝜎/ 𝑛 𝑥̅̅ 3𝑅 / 𝑑 𝑛 𝒙 𝑨𝟐 𝑹
Derivation
• Standard deviation of 𝑊 is 𝑑
• Estimator of 𝜎 is 𝜎 𝑅/𝑑
• Standard deviation of 𝑅 can be written as 𝜎 𝑑 𝜎 as
𝑅 𝑊𝜎
•𝜎 𝑑 𝑅 /𝑑
• For R chart
• 𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑅 3𝜎 𝑅 𝑫𝟒 𝑹
• 𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑅 3𝜎 𝑅 3𝑑 𝑅/𝑑 𝑫𝟑 𝑹
• 𝐶𝐿 𝑅
 Revised Control Limits
Discard out of control samples with assignable causes.

Revised control limits are calculated as below, for total

number of samples 𝑚 and number of defective samples 𝑑:

∑
𝑋 𝑋
∑
𝑅 𝑅
𝜎 ( 𝑑 can be found in table)
𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑋 𝐴 𝜎 ; 𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑋 𝐴𝜎
𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝐷 𝜎 ; 𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝐷𝜎 ;

13.08.2025
 Revised Limits
Phase I Phase II

d2(n=4) = 2.059
9
est = 6.300/2.059 = 3.062 8
D2 = 4.698 7 Range of Times (4
patients, not including one Revised
D1 = 0.000 6 "extra-long" overnight UCLXbar
5 Xbar
60 = the process capability 4 CLXbar
= 18.4 hours 3 LCLXbar

(range for hospital) 2

1 Evidence of
No specs. so no Cpk
0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31
Subgrou
16
Range of Times (4 patients, not including one "extra-

11
UCLR
R
CLR
6

1
1 6 11 16
Subgroup 21 26 31

13.08.2025
X-bar and R chart
• 𝑋 chart monitors between sample variability, 𝑅 chart
monitors within sample variability
• To design 𝑋 𝑅 chart, the following must be specified:
• Sample size
• Control limit width
• Frequency of sampling
• 𝑋 chart is capable to signal moderate to large process
shifts 2𝜎 or larger)
• 𝑅 chart is relatively insensitive to shift in process standard
deviation for small samples 𝑒. 𝑔. 𝑛 5
Error in Making Inference
• Type I Error: This error results from inferring a process is
out of control when it is not. It is denoted by 𝛼. This
happens due to chance causes, when a control charts falls
outside control limits. For 3𝜎 limits, probability of type I
error is 0.0027.
• Type II Error: This error results from inferring a process is
in control when it is out of control. It is denoted by 𝛽. This
can happen when the process mean or the process
variability or both have changed.
Xbar & R Charting
Subgp. X1 X2 X3 X4 Xbar R
• Step 1. (Startup) Collect data for 25. 1 20.50 3.10 2.10 4.00 7.43 18.40

Xbarbar is grand average, Rbar is... 2

3
1.20
5.40
2.40
2.20
2.40
2.30
1.40
0.20
1.85
2.53
1.20
5.20

• Step 2. (Startup) “Trial” limits: 4

5
1.10
1.40
11.00
6.50
3.10
2.20
1.50
6.50
4.18
4.15
9.90
5.10
6 2.30 2.30 0.30 19.40 6.08 19.10
• Step 3. (Startup) Find out of control 7 13.10 3.10 2.40 0.40 4.75 12.70

signals. Remove if assignable causes 8

9
0.60
1.60
2.10
1.60
3.30
13.10
5.30
0.50
2.82
4.20
4.70
12.60
are found 10 8.10 1.00 2.20 0.10 2.85 8.00
11 3.20 5.30 9.20 1.30 4.75 7.90
• Step 4. (Startup) Revise limits. 12 4.50 5.40 4.50 14.70 7.28 10.20
13 2.40 1.30 0.20 10.30 3.55 10.10

• Step 5. (Steady State) Plot and local 14

15
1.60
3.20
5.40
9.30
3.10
4.00
7.20
2.10
4.32
4.65
5.60
7.20
authority investigates if out-of-control 16 0.20 0.60 1.30 2.60 1.17 2.40

signals occur (can act). 17

18
1.30
2.00
1.30
6.10
5.10
5.10
0.30
5.20
2.00
4.60
4.80
4.10
19 2.30 1.10 6.10 5.20 3.67 5.00
20 2.40 4.60 0.60 6.20 3.45 5.60
21 3.00 1.60 6.50 1.20 3.07 5.30
22 5.60 14.10 6.50 2.30 7.12 11.80
23 0.50 1.10 2.10 1.10 1.20 1.60
24 1.40 3.00 4.40 2.20 2.75 3.00
25 2.30 2.20 1.40 2.40 2.08 1.00
Xbarbar= 3.86 Rbar=7.3
 Trial Limits
d2(n=4) = 2.059
est = 7.300/2.059 = 3.55

D2 = 4.698
10
D1 = 0.000
8
0
UCLXbar = Xbarbar + 3.0 ×
n 6
UCL
Signals on the R chart. Do 4 Xbar
detective work. Overnight
stays. Not fair to keep. 2

So remove. 0
1 6 11 16 21

21

16

11 UC
LR

1
1 6 11 16 21

13.08.2025
 Revision Formula
Xbarbar,revised = [25 Xbarbar,trial – (removed)] ÷ (25 – # removed)]
(25*3.86 – 7.43 – 6.08) ÷ 23 = 3.6 hours
Makes a small difference but it is fair as long as we clarify we are not
considering overnight stays
Only remove if an assignable cause was found and eliminated.
Otherwise leave data in (common or chance causes).

Process capability: Measurement of the Common Cause variation/system

quality:
6 0 derive fairly measures common cause variation
18.4 hours (you can pretty much count on range less than that)

13.08.2025
X bar and S chart
• It is occasionally desirable to monitor process standard
deviation directly, rather than indirectly as done in 𝑅
chart.
• 𝑋 and 𝑆 chart are preferable when
• The sample size 𝑛 is moderately large for 𝑛 10 or 12.
• The sample size 𝑛 is variable
• The unbiased estimator of population variance 𝜎 is
sample variance 𝑠
∑ 𝑥 𝑥̅
𝑠
𝑛 1
• The sample sd 𝑠 estimates 𝑐 𝜎, sd of 𝑠 is 𝜎 1 𝑐
*
Xbar and S Chart
• Since 𝐸 𝑠 𝑐 𝜎 the center line is 𝑐 𝜎. The 3 sigma limits
of the s-chart is given by
𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑐 𝜎 3𝜎 1 𝑐
𝐶𝐿 𝑐 𝜎
𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑐 𝜎 3𝜎 1 𝑐
X bar and S chart with Sample Estimators
• Consider 𝑠/𝑐 as an unbiased estimator of 𝜎
• For 𝑚 preliminary samples with sd 𝑠 , the average of m
standard deviation is given by 𝑠̅ ∑ 𝑠
̅
𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑠̅ 1 𝑐 𝐵 𝑠̅
𝐶𝐿 𝑠̅
̅
𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑠̅ 1 𝑐 𝐵 𝑠̅

Where 𝐵 1 1 𝑐 and 𝐵 1 1 𝑐
X bar and S chart with Sample Estimators
• Control limit for corresponding 𝑋 chart is given by
̅
𝑈𝐶𝐿 𝑥̅̅ 𝑥̅̅ 𝐴 𝑠̅
𝐶𝐿 𝑥̅̅
̅
𝐿𝐶𝐿 𝑥̅̅ 𝑥̅̅ 𝐴 𝑠̅
 Probability of an Xbar False Alarm
Assume that the subgroups are rational (skipping and
representative of a homogeneous group) and the
system is under control (no assignable causes so
distribution is the same), what is probability of a false
alarm on the next subgroup from the Xbar chart?
CLT  Xbar ~ N[,/sqrt(n)]
1-Pr{LCLXbar =  – 3/sqrt(n) ≤ Xbar ≤ UCLXbar =  +
3/sqrt(n)} =1- Pr{-3 ≤ Z ≤ 3} = 1-2 Pr{Z ≤ -3} = 0.0027
Even if you are doing everything correctly, you have a
0.0027 chance of a false alarm.
(Average Run Length (ARL) in control 1÷0.0027= 370.4)

13.08.2025
Average Run Length (ARL)
• To measure the performance of a control chart, ARL is used.
• ARL denotes the number of samples, on average, required to
detect and out of control signal.
• If 𝑃 is the probability that a process is out of control then run
length is 1 with probability 𝑃 , 2 with probability 1 𝑃 𝑃 ,
3 with 1 𝑃 𝑃 . Hence
𝐴𝑅𝐿 ∑ 𝑗 1 𝑃 𝑃
• For a process in control, 𝑃 is 𝛼 (probability of type I error)
• For an in-control process, ARL should be as large as possible.
• For an out of control process 𝑃 1 𝛽. 𝛽: Probability of
Type II error. 𝐴𝑅𝐿
• For out of control process, ARL should be as small as possible.
ARL Curve

Source: QCI, Amitava

Mitra
 Analysis of Pattern in Control Chart
• Process should be investigated when there is non-random
pattern in control chart
• Most sample averages
are below centre line !
• Continuous rise (run-up)
or fall (run-down)

• A run length of 8, or consecutive

8 points above or below centre
line may indicate out-of-control
• Cycles are another type of
pattern 
 Analysis of Pattern in Control Chart

• A mixture pattern when

most points are near
control limits, result of two
or more distributions

• A shift in the process may occur

due to introduction of new
operator, material, machine,
inspection method etc.

Analysis of Pattern in Control Chart
• A trend occurs when there
is continuous deterioration
of tools. In chemical
processes they occur due
to settling or separation of
components.

• Stratification is when points

cluster artificially near centre
line. This may happen when
rational subgrouping is not
done.
Rules of Identifying Out of Control Points
1. If single point plots are outside control limits
2. If 2 out of 3 consecutive points plots fall outside 2𝜎
warning limits on the same side of centre line
3. If 4 out of 5 consecutive points fall beyond 1𝜎 limit on
the same side of centre line
4. If 9 or more consecutive points fall on one side of centre
line
5. If 6 or more consecutive points steadily increases or
decreases