Abduljabar Ruduwan
Abduljabar Ruduwan
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
ADVISOR:ABEBE WUBETU
. Mar 2023
HARAMAYA,ETHIOPIA
1
ABSTRACT
Agriculture is the main economic activity in developing countries like Ethiopia. Even though agriculture is
the backbone of their economy; it has not been able to satisfy the food requirements of their people.
Hence, it is very important to understand the determinants of agricultural productivity.
In line with this, the main objective of this study is to examine the determinants of sorghum production in
specific area in the case of Haramaya woreda. The specific objectives of this study are to examine the
determinants of sorghum production and to come up with some possible recommendation for policy
makers.
To examine this problem the cross-sectional data will be collected. I will employed both descriptive and
econometrics statistics to analysis the stated objectives.I willgoing to analyze effect of land size, number
of oxen, fertilizers, improved seed, family size and credits to farmers in order to purchase those inputs in
sorghum production by using both descriptive and econometrics statistic.
Acronyms
2
CSA Central Statistics Agency
3
Table 4.1Workplan ...........................................................................................................................22
4
Table of Contents
ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................................................i
Acronyms......................................................................................................................................................ii
List of table...................................................................................................................................................iii
Table of Contents..........................................................................................................................................iv
CHAPTER ONE............................................................................................................................................1
1. INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................................................1
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE....................................................................................................................6
5
2.1.10. Regional distribution of sorghum in Ethiopia.................................................................................11
NDEX..........................................................................................................................................................27
CHAPTERONE
1,INTRODUCTION
1.1,BACKGROUNDOFTHESTUDY
6
Agriculture is the principal engine of growth of world economy. For poorest countries agriculture
provides the leading sources of employment and contributes the larger fraction of the in national income
Especially Sub-SaharanAfrican countries economy highly depends on agriculture. Since Ethiopia is one of
the Sub- Saharan Africancountries its economy is highly dependent on agriculture(WB, 2011).
Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy. It contributes more than 50%
of GDP, 85% of labor force employment, 95% of total export and supplies 70%of the
country rawmaterial requirements for industries(Ayele, 2006).
The current government of Ethiopia adopted the Agricultural Development Lead
to Industrialization(ADLI) strategy as the over al ll development strategies of the
country since1995.
One of the main facts of this strategy in the agricultural sector has been the
generation, adoption and diffusion of new farm technologies in the form of new
and improved inputs and practices. In the mobilization of small farmers and the
dissemination of better farming practices, the agricultural development practices
has been operationalized through Participatory Demonstration and
ExtensionTraining System(PDETS)(EDRI,2004).
Global cereal production in 2008 reached a record high of an estimated 2245 million
tones enough to cover annual projected needs and to allow a modest replenishment of
world stocks. However, the increase was accomplished bythe developed countries. In
response to more attractive prices they increased their cereal output by
11%.Indeveloping countries by contrast only recorded an increase of 1.1% .In fact if
we exclude China, India and Brazilfrom the group production in the rest of the
developing world actually fell by .8%.The poorest and most foodinsecure farmers who
most needed to profit from higher cereal prices could not respond to the opportunity
andexpand production because of access to inputs or marketing opportunities. As
result of this issue increasing cerealcrop production is themain strategy ofmany
developing countries(FAO, 2009).
Following to this the researcher conducts researches on the determinant of sorghum
production, which accounts thefourth largest shares of total cereal crops. Ethiopia is
the second largest sorghum producer in sub Saharan Africa after South
[Link] n area under sorghum cultivation expanded from1.40million
7
hectorin2004/05to1.55million hector in 2010/[Link] though sorghum is cultivated
on large hector of Ethiopia land, its yield is [Link] is mainly duetoo limited use
of improved seed and inefficient agroeconomic practices([Link]).
InEthiopia,sorghum ranks fourth in total crop area and [Link] is grown in the
highlands at altitudes ranging from 1500 to 3000 masl. Sorghum is a staple food crop
for most households in rural and urban areas in [Link], sorghum yield is
low and unstable due to several technical and socioeconomic constraints.(Getehun
and Legese, 2001).
A number of empirical studies (Chilot, 1996, Wodaly, 1999 and Gezahagn, 2004)
studied on the adoption of new technologies or improved seeds and its affect on
sorghum production. But this is not the only determinant of sorghum production. This
means it has other factors that are not well studied.
8
Even if different researchers haved one researches on the determinant of sorghum
production,none ofthem had been done in Haramaya woreda with this regard. The
previous studies are not give attention for the effects of landsize,number of oxen,and
family size on sorghum productionSpecially,the abovementioned problems wer
common in the
[Link]
s of sorghum production inHaramayaworeda.
1. 3, Objectiveofthestudy
1.3.1, Generalobjective
The general objective of this study is to identify the determinants sorghum production
in Haramaya woreda.
1.4,Researchquestion
1.5, Thesignificanceofthestudy
Like any other developing nations of the world, one of the goals of the government of
Ethiopia is, to rais eagricultural production and productivity, by providing possible
assistance to assert the economic sustainability of rural small scale peasants and avoid
or at least reduce the poverty(MOA,2005).Hence,this research paper willbe significant,
9
because it could attempt to analyze the determinants of sorghum production. In
addition it also enables to have some guide lines on what type of inputs should the
government give emphasis to provide for farmers. The findings,conclusions and
recommendations will expect to help policy maker seasily to identify the determinants
of sorghum production. It may be used as source of information for those researchers
who want to conduct a deeperstudyinthearea.
1.6,Scopeofthestudy
The study will analyzed the determinants of sorghum production in East hararghe
zone. Specifically, in Haramayaworeda. Moreover, since cereal crop production is
multi-dimensional and studying all dimensions requires large time and intensive
investigation of each aspect. Therefore; the researcher studies only the determinants
of sorghum [Link] study area.
1.7,Limitationofthestudy
The researcher had been faced the following limitations [Link] the over all
study:
Lack of experiences in field ofstudy.
Absence of previous study on the topic.
Even though these problems were existed, the researcher used the maximum
effort to investigate the determinants of sorghum production in the given area in
agriculture.
10
CHAPTER TWO
[Link]
[Link]
[Link]
Agriculture is the science of art of cultivation of soil and re aring of livestock. Major
economicactivity of the world population. Morethan60% of people of the world
depend onagriculture for its livelihood. This means agriculture is the main economic
and social development background for almost for all countries of the world.
Agricultural products used for daily food consumption, source of raw materials for
industrial inputs, contribute to countries economic growth, source of in come
forindividualfarmers . Beingmajordeterminant of life of the people in the world due
attention should be given to agricultural sector especially to improve the lives of
majority engaged in its activity(Gesaye, 2004).
Milikan and Hapgood, (1967), divided the determinants of agricultural output growth
into five major [Link] are physical input factors, economic factors,
organization factors, cultural and motivational factors and knowledge [Link] of
them discussed as follows.
11
[Link] physical input factors
The physical input factor further subdivided into non-human (non-labor) physical
input and labor physical [Link] physical inputs are land, seed, water,
fertilizer, pesticide, work animals, tools, machinery, and power other than animal
powers(EEA,2004).
[Link]
Organizational factor for agriculture production is organizational composed of land
tenure, farm size, and legal farm,general government services and
polices,socialservice,localgovernmentanddiffusionofknowledge(MillikansH,1967).
[Link]
Education is the most important for farmers to increase production of crop and provide
high pay off in changing
moldering environment intraditionalagriculture.
12
Ingeneral,these factors include social structure,culturalchange values ,dynamicof
peasan tcommunities,process
of socialcultural change andetc.
13
dabo(Ethiopiabread),Ambush(breadfromnorthEthiopia),kitta(unleavenedbread),Injera(t
hin bread), nitro(boiled grain),Ingra (ground and seasoned dough shaped and deep
friend),and kinches(crushedkernels cookedwith milk orwater and mixed with
spicedbetter).
Sorghum are traditional used in flate bread and specially bredparticularly in
Mediterranean countries and Ethiopia(quail, 1988), sorghum has yellowish color a
characteristics test and smell fine and uniform crumb structure andmore prolonged
shelf all which appeal to some consumer (liuetal.., 1996) in Italy in the 10 last years
the share ofsorghum used for bread making has increased from 4%-10%
(Palumboetal, 2000).It has been reported thatsorghum used for baking performance
improves as Gluten becomes stronger, but loaf volumes achieved for best performing
sorghum verities are substantially lower than thatfor.
14
Factors that increase productivity are(central agricultural census commission,2002)
Favorable sorghum conditionUse improved seeds and proper weeding Application of
fertilizer and pouching Factors that decrease productivity areToo much rainfall
Shortage of rainfall
Wild animal and domestic animal damage
Shortage of improved seeds
Depletion of the soil fertilizer
[Link]
rticular
Land:As means of agricultural production land has greater than usual [Link]
cannot be re produced
although its fertility can [Link] land there,is no cultivation of sorghum
forfood.(Burger,1994)
Labor:in the production process of agriculture labor is needed for
weeding,ploughing,harvesting,threshing and
transportation(Centralagriculturecensuscommission,2002)
15
Mostly sorghum is produced by small holder farmers at the northern, central and
south-eastern parts of the [Link] largest volume of the main season
production of sorghum originates from Oromia 55%, Amhara 29% and theSNNPR9%
(CSA,2010).
2.2EmpiricalReview
Chilot(1996) By using top it and probity models, he studied the adoption of sorghum
technologies inWelmera and Addis Alem areas and found that profitability of the new
sorghum technology and timely availability of fertilizer and herbicide has significant
effect on the farmer anadoption decision. He also found that the distance of
respondents from the extension center hadbeen anegative effect on the adoption of
newtechnology.
Wolday(1999) Byusing top it and probit models,he conducted astudy to understand the
major factors which dictate the use of improved seeds in Ethiopia and reported that
price of inputs access to credits,fertilizeruse,economic status of the household, size
of land owned, visits of extension agents and infrastructures development are the
principal challenges for the adoption of improved seeds.
Gezhegn and Tadesse (2004) on the adoption of improved technologies in Ethiopia
reported that age of the farmer and distance of the farmer from the market center
had a negative impact on the adoption of improved [Link] the other
hand household size and farm size of the farmers contact with extension agents
had strong and positive effects on the adoption of improved technologies
inEthiopia.
16
CHAPTERTHREE
METHODOLOGYOFTHESTUDY
17
Where
The three kebele has 2200 house hold heads. From these house heads 1995 house hold heads
were Sorghum producers in 2023/2024. G.C from these first calculate p.
Ni= ( ) where
So by using the above stratified sampling formula the proportional number of respondent in each
kebele is calculated as follows.
18
Methodsofdataanalysis
The data was analyzed byusing different methods of quantitative data [Link]
employ such analysis bothdescriptive statistics and econometric model models
intensively use for for agiven phenomenon.
Model specification of sorghum production
Themodel shows the relation ship between the productivity of sorghum and its
[Link] researcheruses the
multiple linear regression models because sorghum productivity is determined by
more than one variable
Yi = β1 + β2Xi +β3xi+β4xi+ ui
Diagnosis Regression
i).Multicollinerity
Multicollinarity refers to the existence of high(perfect)linear relationship among
regressors cantest the presence of multicolinarity by variance inflationfactor,
19
Givenby;VIF=
Where R2 iis coefficient of determination obtained from xion theother explanation
[Link] value of VIF lessthan10 then there is no multicolinarity inthe data.
ii)Test forHeteroskedactiy
This type test is used in order to examine the pattern of the error terms variance are
constant or to test theassumption homosecdasticity. Hetroshedsticity is present if
variance of error term is not constant or different variance for different segments of the
population or sample size.
. CHAPTER 4
20
WORK PLAN AND COST BUDGET
The work plan is prepared as follows which starts from proposal finalization up to finalizing of
the research
4.2 CostBudget
The total budget required to conduct the research is ETB 6,100.00. Of the total budget, birr
3,840.00 will be needed for data collection and processing. The remaining ETB 1,705.00 will be
21
used for supplies while ETB 554.50 will be for contingency. The details are presented in the
following table.
22
Table 3 Cost budget
Supplies
Transportation 500.00
23
Cost summary schedule:
Supplies 1705.00
REFERENCE
Central agricultural census [Link] large and medium scale farmers result
at country level, Addis Ababa,2001/02.
24
CSA, Agricultural sample survey report on area and production. Addis
Ababa .2010.
FAO. knowledge and communication department world food Day Tele Food, Italy,
2009.
25
APPENDEX
. HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY
. DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMCIS
SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE
Direction: - for close ended question mark (Ö) in a given box for open ended
question give short & precise answer.
1,Sex of respondents
Male o Female o
2,Age of respondents
3,Marital status
4,Educational level,
26
Illiterate o Fist Cycle o Second Cycle o Above Secondary Cycle o
7,Based on question number 7, if your answer is yes please fill the following
question.
Yes o No o
13,,If your answer is no for question no (13) what is the main reason?
14,For question number 13 if your answer is yes what inputs did you use?
15,If your answer is fertilizer for question no 15, how many kilograms of fertilizer
did you use to produce sorghum?
Yes o Noo
27
17,If your answer is yes for question 17, how much kilograms of selected seed did
you use?
28