Demography

DEMOGRAPHY

Introduction to Demography

Demography is the scientific study of populations, focusing on their size, structure, and
distribution. It examines population-related processes such as birth and death rates,
migration, and population composition (e.g., age, gender, marital status). Demography is
divided into two main areas:

● Formal Demography: Deals with the quantitative analysis of population data, such as
statistical patterns of births, deaths, and migration.
● Social Demography: Focuses on the social, economic, and political factors influencing
population changes.
Historical Background

● Origins of Census:
○ The first modern census was conducted in the United States in 1790.
○ In India, the census began between 1867–72 and has been conducted regularly
every decade since 1881.
● India’s Census:
○ The largest census exercise globally, it covers every aspect of the population,
including housing, education, employment, and health.
○ It is a crucial tool for economic planning and monitoring public welfare
programs.
● Evolution Over Time:
○ Early demographic studies focused primarily on population size and growth
rates.
○ Modern demography incorporates aspects like gender studies, urbanisation,
migration, and fertility patterns.

Relevance in Contemporary Society

● Policy Formulation:
○ Governments rely on demographic data to forecast population trends, allocate
resources, and address pressing societal challenges like ageing populations or
youth unemployment.
● Global Comparisons:
○ Demographic studies allow nations to benchmark their progress in areas like
health, education, and social equity.
● Technological Advancements:
○ With advancements in data analytics and AI, demography is becoming even
more relevant for real-time decision-making.

Key Theories in Demography

Malthusian Theory of Population Growth:

● Proposed by Thomas Malthus (1798).

 ● Key Idea: Population grows geometrically, while food production grows arithmetically,
leading to inevitable poverty unless population growth is controlled.
● Criticism:
○ Historical experiences (e.g., in Europe) disproved it.
○ Poverty is linked more to unequal resource distribution than population growth.

Theory of Demographic Transition:

● Links population growth to economic development in three stages:

○ Stage 1: High birth and death rates, low growth.
○ Stage 2: Declining death rates, high growth (population explosion).
○ Stage 3: Low birth and death rates, stabilised population.
Demographic Dividend refers to the economic growth potential that arises from changes in
a country’s age structure. It occurs when the working-age population (15–64 years) grows
larger than the non-working-age groups (children and elderly), creating opportunities for
economic advancement.

Demographic Indicators

Indicator Definition Significance Current Trends in India

Birth Rate Number of live Reflects population India’s birth rate has declined
births per 1,000 growth potential and due to awareness and family
people annually. reproductive planning but remains higher
behaviour. than global averages.

Death Rate Number of deaths Indicates health Declining steadily due to

per 1,000 people conditions, improved healthcare, nutrition,
annually. healthcare access, and sanitation.
and mortality rates.

Natural Difference Measures population India’s natural increase has

Increase between birth and growth without slowed but continues to
death rates. considering contribute to population
migration. growth.
Fertility Rate Number of live Determines India’s fertility rate has
births per 1,000 generational dropped to below 2.1 in several
women aged replacement and states, approaching
15–49 years. family size trends. replacement level.

Infant Number of deaths Indicator of public India’s rate has declined

Mortality of children below 1 health, sanitation, significantly but remains a
Rate year per 1,000 live and maternal care concern in rural and
births. quality. underserved areas.

Maternal Number of women Reflects healthcare Maternal deaths have

Mortality dying in childbirth quality, particularly decreased due to better
Rate per 100,000 live maternal and healthcare facilities and
births. obstetric care. government schemes like
Janani Suraksha Yojana.

Life The average Indicates overall India’s life expectancy has

Expectancy number of years a living standards, improved, with urban areas
person is expected healthcare, and often outpacing rural areas.
to live. economic conditions.

Sex Ratio Number of females A critical indicator of India’s sex ratio has improved
per 1,000 males. gender equity and slightly in recent years but still
social practices. shows imbalance due to son
preference and sex-selective
practices.

Age Proportions of the Affects workforce India’s predominantly young

Structure population in availability, population offers a
different age dependency ratios, demographic dividend, with a
groups. and economic growing working-age
growth. population.
 DID YOU KNOW?
India has officially surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country in 2023,
according to the United Nations Population Division. The estimated population of India
stands at 1.428 billion, slightly ahead of China’s 1.426 billion.

India’s Population Trends

Population Size and Growth

● India's Population: Second most populous country after China with 121 crore (1.21
billion) as per Census 2011.
● Historical Growth:
○ 1901–1951: Annual growth rate did not exceed 1.33%.
○ 1911–1921: Negative growth rate of -0.03% due to the 1918–19 influenza
epidemic which killed 12.5 million people (5% of the population).
○ Post-Independence: Growth increased to 2.2% during 1961-1981 but has
declined since.

Population Trends and Factors

● Birth Rate vs. Death Rate:

○ High birth and death rates before 1931.
○ Post-1921: Sharp decline in death rates due to improvements in healthcare,
vaccinations, and sanitation. Birth rates declined more slowly.
● Regional Variations:
○ States like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala have below
replacement-level fertility rates.
○ States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have high fertility rates contributing
significantly to future population growth.

Population Growth of India in the 20th Century

Year Total Population Average Annual Growth Rate Decadal Growth Rate
(Millions) (%) (%)
1901 238 - -

1911 252 0.56 5.8

1921 251 -0.03 -0.3

1931 279 1.04 11.0

1941 319 1.33 14.2

1951 361 1.25 13.3

1961 439 1.96 21.6

1971 548 2.22 24.8

1981 683 2.20 24.7

1991 846 2.14 23.9

2001 1,028 1.95 21.5

2011 1,210 1.63 17.7

Fertility and Birth Rates

● Current Fertility Trends:

○ States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh a total Fertility Rate (TFR)
of 1.7, below replacement level.
○ States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh: TFRs of 3.3 and 3.1, respectively.
● Sample Registration System (2020):
○ Crude Birth Rate: 19.5 per 1,000 population.
○ Rural: 21.1 per 1,000; Urban: 16.1 per 1,000.
○ Bihar (25.5) and Uttar Pradesh (25.1) have the highest birth rates.
Regional Contribution to Projected Population Growth (2041)

Region/States Contribution (%)

Uttar Pradesh and Bihar 28%

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh 15%

Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka 16%

Maharashtra and Gujarat 13%

West Bengal, Odisha, and Jharkhand 13%

Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi 5%

Remaining States 10%

Age Structure of the Indian Population

● Young Population: India has a predominantly young population with an average age
lower than most other countries.
● Age Composition:
○ Under 15 years: Declined from 42% in 1971 to 29% in 2011 and projected to
further decrease to 23% by 2026.
○ Working-age group (15–59 years): Increased from 53% in 1961 to 63% in 2011
and is projected to rise slightly to 64% by 2026.
○ Elderly (60+ years): Increased from 6% in 1961 to 8% in 2011, expected to rise
to 12% by 2026.

Age Composition of Indian Population (1961–2026)

Year 0–14 Years (%) 15–59 Years (%) 60+ Years (%) Total (%)

1961 41 53 6 100

1971 42 53 5 100

1981 40 54 6 100

1991 38 56 7 100

2001 34 59 7 100

2011 29 63 8 100

2026 23 64 12 100

● Data Source: Technical Group on Population Projections, National Commission on

Population.

Key Trends

● Declining Youth Proportion:

○ The share of the 0–14 age group is expected to decrease by 11% from 34% in
2001 to 23% in 2026.
 ● Rising Elderly Proportion:
○ Share of the 60+ age group to increase by 5% from 7% in 2001 to 12% in 2026.
● Bulge in Working-age Population:
○ The largest share lies in the 15–59 years age group, offering potential for
economic growth through a demographic dividend.

Regional Variations

● Kerala:
○ Acquiring an age structure similar to developed countries.
○ Higher elderly population with reduced youth proportions.
● Uttar Pradesh:
○ A high proportion of younger age groups.
○ Low proportions among the aged.

Population Pyramids

● Population Pyramid (1961–2026):

○ 1961–1981: Wide base indicating high birth rates with a slow decline.
○ 2001–2026: Narrowing base due to declining birth rates; widening middle reflects
working-age population growth.
○ 2026: Significant increase in elderly population as life expectancy improves.
● Regional Pyramids for 2026:
○ Kerala: Narrow base and wider upper segments, resembling a developed
country's age structure.
○ Uttar Pradesh: Broad base, indicating high fertility rates and a younger
population.

Implications of Age Structure

● Demographic Dividend:
○ India’s large working-age population presents an economic opportunity.
○ A smaller elderly population reduces dependency, creating potential for savings
and investments.
● Challenges:
○ Regional disparities require targeted policy measures.
 ○ Managing an increasing elderly population demands improved healthcare and
social security.

Declining Sex Ratio in India

Globally, sex ratios are slightly in favour of females due to biological advantages. India's Trend:
Declining sex ratio for over a century, highlighting gender imbalances in society.

Key Trends in Sex Ratios (1901–2011)

Year Sex Ratio (All Age Variation Over Child Sex Ratio Variation Over
Groups) Decade (0–6 Years) Decade

1901 972 – – –
1951 946 +1 – –

1961 941 –5 976 –

1991 927 –7 945 –17

2001 933 +6 927 –18

2011 943 +10 919 –8

Alarming Decline in Child Sex Ratio

● Sharp Decline: From 976 in 1961 to 919 in 2011, indicating severe gender imbalance
among children.
● Notable Decadal Trends:
○ 1991–2001: The child sex ratio fell below the overall sex ratio for the first time.
○ 2011 Census: A further drop of 13 points in the child sex ratio, reaching 919
females per 1000 males.

State-Wise Child Sex Ratios (2011)

Category States/UTs Examples

Below 900 Haryana (793), Punjab, Delhi, Chandigarh Haryana is the worst at 793.

900–925 Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Significant concern.

Pradesh

926–970 West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka The national average of 919
lies here.

Above 970 Arunachal Pradesh (972), Kerala Arunachal Pradesh leads at

972.

Population Policy in India

● Definition: Population policy addresses population growth, health, and socio-economic

challenges.
 ● Importance: Vital for development and public health, particularly in developing nations
like India.
● First Policy: India was the first country to officially announce a population policy in
1952.

Historical Development

● 1952:
○ Launch of the National Family Planning Programme.
○ Objectives:
■ Control population growth.
■ Improve public health standards.
■ Increase public awareness about population and health issues.
● National Emergency (1975–76):
○ Coercive measures like mass sterilization (vasectomy for men, tubectomy for
women) were introduced.
 ○ Mostly targeted the poor and powerless.
○ This resulted in widespread opposition and abandonment after the Emergency.
● Post-Emergency Era:
○ Renamed as the National Family Welfare Programme.
○ Shift from coercion to a broad-based socio-demographic approach.
● National Population Policy (2000):
○ Focused on socio-demographic goals.
○ Aimed to address fertility rates, maternal and child health, and population
stabilization.

Key Goals of National Health Policy 2017

Recent Policies in Population Control and Health

Policy/Step Year Key Features Impact/Goal

National 2000 Stabilize the population, Achieve

Population Policy reduce fertility rates, and replacement-level
(NPP) improve maternal and child fertility (TFR of 2.1).
health.
National Health 2017 Increase health expenditure Strengthen health
Policy (NHP) to 2.5% of GDP, reduce MMR services and address
to 100 by 2020, and reduce population-related
TFR to 2.1 by 2025. challenges.

Mission Parivar 2016 Targeted intervention in high Focus on family

Vikas fertility districts (Total planning services,
Fertility Rate >3). contraceptive
availability, and
behavioural changes.

Beti Bachao, Beti 2015 Prevent gender-biased Increase child sex ratio
Padhao sex-selective practices, and empower women.
improve girl child education
and survival.

Ayushman Bharat 2018 Provide health coverage up Reduce financial burden

(PMJAY) to ₹5 lakh per family on families, improve
annually for secondary and healthcare access.
tertiary care hospitalization.

Pradhan Mantri 2017 Provide financial assistance Promote maternal

Matru Vandana to pregnant and lactating health and reduce infant
Yojana mothers for their first child. mortality.

Janani Suraksha 2005 Encourage institutional Reduce maternal

Yojana (JSY) deliveries among poor mortality rate (MMR)
pregnant women through and improve newborn
financial incentives. survival.

Universal Ongoing Expand immunization Improve child survival

Immunization (Updated coverage for diseases like and reduce infant
Program 2014) measles, rubella, polio, and mortality.
pneumonia.
Enhanced Access 2019 Introduced new Improve access to
to Family Planning contraceptives like Antara modern contraceptive
(injectable) and Chhaya methods.
(pills) under Mission Parivar
Vikas.

Suman Scheme 2019 Ensure quality healthcare Improve maternal and

(Safe Motherhood during pregnancy and neonatal survival.
Assurance) childbirth without financial
burden.

Rashtriya Kishor 2014 Focus on adolescent health, Target adolescents for

Swasthya including nutrition, sexual long-term demographic
Karyakram health, and mental benefits.
well-being.

Prenatal 1996 Ban sex-selective abortions Address the declining

Diagnostic (Amended and regulate prenatal child sex ratio.
Techniques Act 2003) diagnostic technology.
(PCPNDT)

National Rural 2005 Strengthen rural health Reduce MMR, IMR, and
Health Mission systems and address TFR in rural areas.
(NRHM) maternal and child health.

Demographic Challenges in the 21st Century

● Economic Inequality: Uneven access to resources exacerbates poverty and poor living
conditions.
● Employment: Job creation has not kept pace with the growing labour force.
● Urban Infrastructure: Rapid urbanization strains housing, sanitation, and public
services.
● Education and Health: Investments in education and health are critical for sustainable
development and leveraging the demographic dividend.
Census Overview

Category Details

Census Year 2011

Motto "Our Census, Our Future"

Phases 1. House Listing (April-Sept 2010)

2. Population Enumeration (Feb 9-28, 2011)

Commissioner Mr. C. Chandramouli

Conducted by Registrar General & Census Commissioner of India under MHA

States/UTs Covered 28 States, 7 UTs

Administrative Units Districts: 640

Sub-districts: 5,924
Towns: 7,936
Villages: 6.41 Lakh

Population Statistics

Parameter Details

Total Population 1,210,569,573 (121 crore)

Male Population 623,121,843 (62.3 crore)

Female Population 587,447,730 (58.7 crore)

Urban Population 31.2% (approx. 37 crore)

Rural Population 68.8% (approx. 84 crore)

Sex Ratio (All Ages) 943 females per 1000 males

Child Sex Ratio (0-6 years) 919 females per 1000 males

Population Density 382 persons/sq km

Increase in Population (2001-2011) 181 million

Literacy Statistics

Parameter Details

Total Literacy Rate 74.04%

Male Literacy Rate 82.14%

Female Literacy Rate 65.46%

Literacy Gap (Male-Female) 16.68%

Top Literacy State Kerala (94%)

Lowest Literacy State Bihar (61.8%)

Highest Literate District Serchhip (Mizoram)

Lowest Literate District Alirajpur (Madhya Pradesh)

Population Growth

Parameter Details

Absolute Population Growth 18.19 crore (17.7%)

Urban Growth (Top States) 1. Maharashtra

2. Uttar Pradesh
3. Tamil Nadu

Rural Growth (Top States) 1. Uttar Pradesh

2. Bihar
3. West Bengal

**State with Highest Growth (by %) ** Meghalaya

State with Negative Growth Nagaland

Special Categories

Parameter Details

SC Population Percentage 16.6%

ST Population Percentage 8.6%

Highest Urban Population Goa

Zero SC Population State Nagaland

Highest Buddhist/Jain Population Maharashtra

Religion-Wise Growth (2001–2011)

Religion Growth Rate (%)

Hindu 16.76

Muslim 24.60

Christian 15.50

Sikh 8.40
Jain 5.40

Workforce Statistics

Parameter Details

Male Workforce Participation 53.26%

Female Workforce Participation 25.51%

Workforce by Sector Primary: 54.6%

Secondary: 24.3%

Most Populous States

Rank State Population

1 Uttar Pradesh ~20 crore

2 Maharashtra ~11 crore

3 Bihar ~10 crore

4 West Bengal ~9.1 crore

5 Andhra Pradesh ~8.5 crore

6 Madhya Pradesh ~7.3 crore

7 Tamil Nadu ~7.2 crore

8 Rajasthan ~6.8 crore

9 Karnataka ~6.1 crore

10 Gujarat ~6 crore