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The document discusses the fundamental concepts of probability, including definitions of statistical experiments, sample spaces, events, and various types of events such as mutually exclusive and equally likely events. It explains how to calculate the probability of events, using examples like coin tosses and rolling dice, and introduces basic laws of probability, including the addition law and complementary events. Additionally, it covers conditional probability and provides various examples to illustrate these concepts.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
19 views14 pagesProbability
The document discusses the fundamental concepts of probability, including definitions of statistical experiments, sample spaces, events, and various types of events such as mutually exclusive and equally likely events. It explains how to calculate the probability of events, using examples like coin tosses and rolling dice, and introduces basic laws of probability, including the addition law and complementary events. Additionally, it covers conditional probability and provides various examples to illustrate these concepts.
Uploaded by
aliaizaz352Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF or read online on Scribd
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6.4 Probability
Unconscious application of probability theory is very wide and indeed,
practically every one is applying it without realizing. The phrases like “He is
reliable”, “He is a liar”, “He is not likely to come” and so on are all probabilistic
and we use them by “applying” probability theory. Basically, probability
originated in problems related to games of chance and was developed
mathematically by Pascal (1623 - 1662) and Fermat (1601 - 1665). Today,
probability has grown far beyond the area of games of chance and has
applications in genetics, insurance, physics, social sciences, engineering and
medicine.
Before defining probability, we define and explain certain terms which are
used in its definition.
6.4.1 (i) Statistical Experiment
Intuitively by an experiment one pictures a procedure being carried out
under a certain set of conditions. The procedure can be repeated any numbers of
times under the same set of conditions and upon completion of the procedure
certain results are observed. The experiments are of two types
(a) Deterministic experiment An experiment is deterministic if, given the
conditions under which the experiment is carried out, the outcome is completely
determined. For example if pure water is brought to a temperature of 100° C and
760 mm Hg of atmospheric pressure the outcome is that the water will boil.
(b) Random experiment An experiment for which the outcome eannot be
predicted except that it is known to be one of a set of possible outcomes: is called
a random experiment.
For example (i) Tossing a coin (ii) Rolling a die.
Since our interest lies in the random experiment, so in this text by experiment we
mean random experiment.
(ii) Sample space and an event
The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a
sample space and is donated by S. The elements of S$ are called sample points or
outcomes.
For example (a) Tossing a coin once, then
S= {H, T} where H and T are the possible outcomes,
(b) _- Tossing a coin twice, then the possible outcomes in the sample space are
-HH, HT, TH, TT.
A ermutation, Combination And Probability
2 Rollinga pair of dice, then we have the following sample space
S= {oJsini = 12,3,4,5,6}
(4) (42) 4,3) (44) 0,5) 4,6)
(2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
_ JG) G2) G3) G4) G5) (6)
V4) 42 43) 44) 45) (4,6)
(5,1) (6,2) 6,3) (5,4) (5,5) 6,6)
(6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
Event: Let S be the sample space of an experiment. Any subset E of S is called
an event associated with the experiment. For example E = {HH, TT} is an event
associated with the experiment of tossing a coin twice.
(ii) Mutually Exclusive events
Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur at
the same time. Mathematically, it is expressed as:
If AQB=6, then A and B are mutually exclusive events.
For example rolling a die, let A be the event that even number has shown up
while B be the event that odd number has shown up and C be the event that a
number less than 4 has occurred.
Here S=({1,2,3,4,5, 6}
Let A= {even number has shown up } = (2, 4, 6}
: B = {odd number has shown up } = {1, 3, 5}
and C= {anumber less than 4 has occurred}= {1, 2, 3}
Now ANB=@=>A and B are mutually exclusive while AMC =({2 } and
BAC ={1,3) showing that A, C and B, C are not mutually exclusive.
(lv) Equally likely events
Two events are said to be equally likely if they have equal chances of
happening. In other words, each event is as likely to occur as the other. For
example rolling a die we have S={ 1,2,3,4, 5,6} and each simple event
Aj={j:j=1, 2, 3,4, 5,6} is as likely to appear as the other. Hence they are
equally likely events, A wutation, Combination And Probability
(vy) Simple and compound events
Events of the form {s} are called simple events, while an event containing
at least two sample points is called a compound event. For example E; = {HH} is
a simple event and Ep = { HH, TT } is a compound event associated with the
experiment of tossing a coin twice.
If the random experiment results in s ands A , we say ‘iat the event A occurs or
happens. The VA occurs if at least one of
the Aj occurs. The OA, occurs if all Aj OCCUr. Sy yyrable or Sueeessal
tcomes
If the event A occurs, then A (complement of A The outcomes which catsit
relative to S) fails to occur. the happening of an event are
+ #5
6.4.2 Let S be the sample space of a random said to be favorable (successful)
to the event.
For example rolling a die, the
experiment, and E be an event. The probability
that an event E will occur, denoted by P(E) is numberof outcomes. 4
given by favorable (successful) to the
happening of event of even
P(E) =" Z integers are three, i.e 2,4 and 6.
__the number of favorable (successful) outcome
the total number of outcomes
no. of elements in the event E
- [Link] elementsin the sample space S
Since E is a subset of S, then obviously
0s n(E)Sn(S) Dividing by n (S), we obtain
Sg MO MOO < PE) <1
n(S) (S$) nS) :
Hence the probability of an event is always a number between 0 and | inclusive.
By the above definition, it is quite clear that P(¢)=0 and P(S)=1 that
is why ¢is called an impossible event while S is called sure or certain event. If E
and F are two events such that P(E)< P(F) , then we say that F is more likely
to occur than E and if P (E) = P (F), the events E and F are equally likely. - yutation, Combination And Probability
Example 20: (a) Ifa coin is flipped, find the probability that a head will turn up.
(b) If a fair die is tossed, find the probability that an even number
has shown up.
Solution: (a) HereS={H,T}
Let A = { head has shown up } = { H }
Since, the outcomes are equally likely, then using the formula:
p(ayet) 1
: n(S) 2
(b) Here S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Let B={ even number has shown up }= { 2, 4, 6 }
Since, the outcomes are equally likely, then we have P (B) = n(B) 3 J!
~ n(S) 6 2
Example 21: In a three child family what is the probability of having
(i) three boys? (ii) at most one boy ?
(iii) at least one boy (iv) exactly one boy ?
Solution: Sometimes a tree diagram is very helpful in constructing a sample
e S.
“pas First Second Third Outcomes
child child child
4 & BBB
s >@ BBG
ge 7B BGB
2 6 BGG
7 B GBB
ae BG
‘“
6 = fi GGB
*?g
-G GGG
Hence S = { BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG, GBB, GBG, GGB, GGG } and the
outcomes are equally likely. raat (A) 1
(i) Let A = { having three boys } = { BBB} then Was) 8
A Unit 6 | Permutation, Combination And Probability
(ii) Let C = { having at most one boy } = { BGG, GBG, GGB, GGG }
then p(=20- el
n(S) 8 2
(iii) Let D = { having at least one boy }
= { BBB, BBG, BGB, BGG,GBB, GBG, GGB }
n(D) _7
pp) = 22) 7
then (D) n(S) 8
(iy) Let E={ having exactly one boy }= { BGG, GBG, GGB }
then P(ey= 2-3
n(S) 8
ds ae
1, Let S = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} be the sample space of rolling a die. What is the
probability of (i) Rolling a5? Rolling a number less than one?
(iii) Rolling a number greater than 0? Rolling a multiple of 3?
(.) Rolling a number greater than or equal to 4?
2. A bag contains 4 white, 5 red and 6 green balls. 3 balls are drawn at
random. What is the probability that All are green) All are white.
3. A true or false test contains eight questions. If a student guesses the
answer for each question, find the probability:
()) 8 answers are correct, |i) 7 answers are correct and 1 is incorrect.
(iii) 6 answers are correct and 2 are incorrect.
(iy) at least 6 answers are correct.
4, Three unbiased coins are tossed. What is the probability of obtaining
(i) all heads (11) two heads il) one head
(iv) at least one head —(y) at least two heads (1) All tails.
5. [Link] of 5 person is to be selected at random from 6 men and 4 women.
Find the probability that the committee will consist of
(i) 3 men and 2 women (ii) 2 men and 3 women.
A Fe : EE ace AGERE
pnit 6 | Permutation, Combination And Probability
1 6. If one card is drawn at random from a well shuffled pack of 52 cards.
Then find the probability of each of the following.
0.
p(B)
ANB
Similarly, p(piay= PAB) P(A)>0.
P(A)
Example 25: What is the probability of rolling a prime number in tossing a die,
given that an odd number has turned up?
Solution: Here S = { 1, 2, 3,4, 5,6}
Let A= {a prime number has rolled }= { 2, 3,5 }
and B= ( an odd number has turned up } = { 1,3, 5}
then ANB={3,5}
We have P(B)=2 and P(anb)=2
P(ANB
Now, using the formula P( AIB) Tae). P(B)#0
pals) =8=2 since p(Bia)= 20408)
3 P(A)
Not For Sale
| ~ ~~ wcnacew My or P(AMB)=P(A)P( BIA)
This shows that the conditional probability can be used in expressing the
probability of the intersection of a finite number of events and we have the
following theorem known as the multiplicative theorem.
If A and B are any two events ina sample space S then
P(ANB)=P(A)P(BIA), P(A)#0
=P(B)P(AIB), P(B)#0
The above theorem can be easily extended to a finite number of events.
For example in case of three events A, B and C it becomes:
P( AMBnC )=P( A) P( BIA) P(ClAB)
Example 26: An um contains three red and seven green balls. A ball is drawn,
not replaced and another is drawn. Find the following.
(i) P (red and red ) (ii) P (red and green ).
Solution: Total number of balls = 10
(i) Let = A={ the 1“ ball drawn is red }
and B = { the 2™ ball drawn is red }
So using the multiplicative theorem,
P( red and red )= P( ANB) = P(A) P( BIA)
Substituting P(A) and P(BIA)==
We obtain, P( red and red )2 2.2 =
109 15
(ii) Let C= { the 1 ball drawn is red }
and D = { the 2™ ball drawn is green }
So using the multiplicative theorem again. .
P( red and green) = P(CAD)=P(C)P( DIC) Boi mi
F Unit 6 | Permutation, Combination And Probability
Substituting P(c)=5 and P(DIC)=2
3 7
btain, — P( red and etek
We obtain, (red and green ) 09 30
6.4.6 Dependent and Independent Events
In general P(AIB) and P(A) are not equal. However, there is an
important class of events for which they are, If P( AIB)=P(A), then the
knowledge of B occurring does not change the probability of A and we say that A
is independent of B. Similarly, if P( B1 A ) = P( B),we say that B is independent
of A. Thus two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence
(or non-occurrence) of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence
(and hence non-occurrence) of the other, otherwise they are called dependent.
Illustration: In the simultaneous throw of two coins, ‘getting a head’ on first
coin and ‘getting a tail on the second coin are independent events.
Illustration2: When a card is drawn from a pack of well shuffled cards and
replaced before the second card is drawn, the result of second draw is independent
of first draw.
The following theorem gives the probabilities of simultaneous occurrence of
two independent events.
Theorem: If A and B are independent events, then P( ANB) = P(A) P(B) .
Proof: Since multiplicative theorem gives that:
P(AMB)=P( A) P( BIA) (i)
=P(B)P(AIB) i)
Further, A and B are independent, then we have P( BIA)=P( B) and
P( AlB)=P( A) substituting in (i) and (ii ) we get the required result:
Mathematics-XT P(AMB)=P(A)P(B)
The above theorem can be extended to any finite number of mutually independent
events. If Ai, Ar, Aj, ..., An are mutually independent events, then
P(A. VA, A, 0A, )= P(A.) P(A) P(A) P(A)
Example 27: A space shuttle has four independent computer control systems. If
the probability of failure of any one system is 0.001, what is the probability of
failure of all four systems ?
Solution: Let E,={ failure of system i, i= 1, 2,3,4}
=,1 2, 3,4 are given to be independent, so using the
Since the events E;
following.
P(E, NE, NE, OE,)=P(E,) P(E) P(E) P(E). i= [Link]
= (0.001 )’ = 0.000000000001
. P(B)=
win
win
1. Suppose events A and B are such that P(‘A)=
and P(AUB)=5. Find P(ANB).
2. If A and B are 2 events in a sample space S such that
1 3 as + nla
P(A)=5.P(B)=2,P(AvB) =}. Find (i) (AB) (i) P(AMB)
3. Given P(A)=0.5and P(AUB)=0.6, find P(B) if A and B are
mutually exclusive.
4. A bag contains 30 tickets numbered from | to 30. One ticket is selected at
random. Find the probability that its number is either odd or the square of
an integer.
5. A student finds that the probability of passing an algebra test is 3 . What
is the probability of failing the test? ‘
6. In the two dice experiment, given that the first die shows 4, what is the
probability that the second die shows a number greater than 4 ?
7. One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards, what is the probability that the
card drawn is neither red nor king.
Unit 6 | Permutation, Combination And Probability j ls
vassal. . | 8. Ifa pair of dice is thrown, find the probability that the sum of digits is
neither 7 nor 11.
9, Ajmal and Bushra appear in an interview for 2 vacancies, The probability
anil 1 ‘
of their selection being 7 and 3 respectively. Find the probability that
