IN THE NAME OF ALLAH,

THE MOST BENEFICENT,

THE MOST MERCIFUL

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 UNIVERSITY OF SINDH

BS Thesis
Topic:

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

CASE STUDTY DISTRICT TANDO ALLAHAYAR VILLAGE

MUBARAK JARWAR.
BY

N Name Roll number

o
1 Abbas Ali Bijarani 2k20/RDS/1
2 Abdul Salam Jarwar 2k20/RDS/4
3 Ghulam Mehdi 2k20/RDS/17
4 Mashooque Mahar 2k20/RDS/29
5 Mahnoor 2k20/RDS/28
6 Shams Bhambhro 2k20/RDS/55
7 Quratulain Rind 2k20/RDS/46
8 Asif Dahar 2k20/RDS/12

SUPERVISOR BY:

PROFESSOR:SIR RAHEEL MAROOF BUGHIO

ABIDA TAHIRANI SINDH DEVELOPMENT STUDIES CENTRE

(AT SDSC)

UNVERSITY OF SINDH JAMSHORO

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1
 CERTIFICATE
This is certify that the work presented in this thesis presented on IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE SECTOR is entirely designed, developed and written by the
following students themselves. The thesis work done under the supervision of Professor
Sir Raheel Maroof Bughio.

STUDENTS NAME:

No Name Roll number

1 Abbas Ali Bijarani 2k20/RDS/1
2 Abdul Salam Jarwar 2k20/RDS/4
3 Ghulam Mahdi 2k20/RDS/17
4 Mashooque Mahar 2k20/RDS/29
5 Mahnoor 2k20/RDS/28
6 Shams Bhambhro 2k20/RDS/55
7 Quratulain Rind 2k20/RDS/46
8 Asif Dahar 2k20/RDS/12

Supervisor
26.1.2024.

Professor Sir Raheel Maroof Bughio

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2
 DEDICATION
We are pleased to dedicated our all efforts and work to our beloved parents, teachers and friends, and
some other peoples who taught us co-education and some inspirational personalities who make us
creative. With their sincere care and everlasting affections brought to us all the happiness and success!

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
First of all we are very grateful to Almighty Allah and his beloved prophet Hazrat
Muhammad (SAW), who made me able and empowered to complete this research
work.

Secondly, we are thankful to my mentor and supervisor Professor Sir Raheel Maroof
Bughio,Sindh Development Studies, university of Sindh. Who guided and shared his
experience for this thesis work.

Thirdly, we would like to say thanks to those friends who helped me for collection of
material and also those who provided such material regarding to thesis work.

STUDENTS NAME:

N Name Roll Number

o
1 Abbas Ali Bijarani 2k20/RDS/1
2 Abdul Salam Jarwar 2k20/RDS/4
3 Ghulam Mahdi 2k20/RDS/17
4 Mashooque Mahar 2k20/RDS/29
5 Mahnoor 2k20/RDS/28
6 Shams Bhambhro 2k20/RDS/55
7 Quratulain Rind 2k20/RDS/46
8 Asif Dahar 2k20/RDS/12

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 ABSTRACT
This study is underscoring the impact of climate change on the major agricultural crops at village
Mubarak Jarwar district Tando Allahayar Sindh Pakistan. These crops are Wheat,Cotton and Sugarcane.
This is the first study of its nature to study the impact of scientific information's on the stages of
development of each crop in order to assess the impact of climate change on each stage of the crops.
This detail scientific information's obtain and understanding the climate change is an atmospheric
conditions constitute the weather and climate of a particular region, climate change may refer to a
change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average
conditions also linkage between disaster and shortage of water which also an increasing issue of
agriculture that has a direct influence on crops yield.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

·CETIFICATE
·DEDICATION

·ACKNOWLEGEMENT
·ABSTRACT

CHAPTER:1

INTRODUCTION

Introduction
1.1 District tando allahyar history

1.2 Village Mubarak jarwar

1.3 Agriculture

1.4 Objective of study area

1.5 Research methodology

1.6 Climate change

1.7 Different definitions of climate change

1.8 Different betwveen weather and climate

1.9 Climate components

1.10 Climatic factors and crop production

CHAPTER:2

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 LITERATURE REVIEW

CHAPTER:3

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

3.1 Shortage Of Water

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Water Scarcity

3.3 Disasters
3.4 Natural Disasters

3.5 Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management In Sindh

3.6 Flood

3.7 Social Economics

3.8 Health

3.9 Agriculture Economics

CHAPTER:4

RESULT & DISCUSSION

Conclusion

Group pictures

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 CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
The climate change is a burning issue for Agriculture in the world. It has created so many troubles and
effects on environment and socio economic factors, that why we must know the about changes occur
and their impact on them. To understand these changes, we must a awareness about basic factors
which are weather and weather can define as change in average atmospheric condition for particular
day, while the average atmnospheric changes occur in any particular region for the particular period in
the year is known as climate. We also know that climate change is related directly or indirectly to
human actions that change the global atmospheric conformation and Pakistan is 28" amongst severely
affected countries form climate change and crop production are interrelated.

Secondly It is necessary for the country to make agriculture sector well organized to foster food
security,qualityof life, and to support rapid economic growth and the crop productivity is affected by
climate variables like temperature, rain that effect comprises plants transpiration and moisture, plant in
take status and plant yield affect its respiration and photosynthesis process,indirect impact includes
plant pest and disease occurs which are processes, includes impact includes plant yield effect its
respiration and photosynthesis process, and increase the evaporation rate that ultimately leads to high
irrigation water demand,so the temperature has elevated around 1 é during last periods because of
deforestation and fossil fuel burning causing many negative effect on crop productivity as well as on
environment due toclimate change,growing season length of wheat will be reduce that negative effect
on yield. The increase in air temperature shortens winter season and the productivity of same rabbi
crops will be greatly affected.

According to report average temperature of Tando Allahyar during 35 years is continuous rising and the
mean maximum temperature during ten year trend. This was only decrease in maximum temperature
observed in any of four districts. However rate of 0.037 degrees centigrade per year.Pakistan had
challenged two consecutive flood during 2011,2012,2023

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and still in 2023 which lead toward mitigation, lack of food effectng various people, and increase scarcity
as well involves crop damages like sugarcane, cotton,rice,what,pulses and cattle loss and it also know
the GDP near 11%. Climate change exposes to dangers of glacial retreats, heat rise, and ocean level rise,
more common torrents and droughts. The property of Pakistan is generally arid and semi-arid,probable
fluctuations in temperature and rain patterns in the upcoming could close it food security and the well
being of lots of its persons. There is a smaller amount availability of water with increase need of
irrigation water due to higher transpiration rate at higher temperature we can be part of saving we can
overcome the result of climate fluctuation taking measures such as involving new and inventive farm
production practices, progress productivity, changing in cropping arrangement like sugar beet in its place
of sugarcane.

Altering cropping pattern with water obtain ability. Flood irrigation must be escaped and current
imaginative irrigation techniques ought to be assumed like routine use of drip,sprinkler, and scheme in
order to overcome the water shortage. We take to manage with climate change situation at local,
domestic, and worldwide level over establishing reasonable benefit in farming and agro-based trades.
The water sector is expected to full fill social,environmental and economic needs. In a context of growing
water scarcity exacerbated by rapid population growth and urbanization, misallocation of resources,
environmental degradation such as seawater intrusion, and mismanagement of water resources, the
Sindh province faces new challenges, which call fora new approach to water resources
management.Water is a single resource with many competing uses.Experience has adequately
demonstrated that water management is complex and multi-level and requires a comprehensive
framework.A sect oral or sub-sect oral approach needs therefore to be replaced by an integrated
approach,which takes account of social, economic, and environmental objectives, assesses water
resources, evaluates and manages water demand, and seeks stakeholders' participation. A long-term
vision is required to set the tone and provide the guidance for Sindh on-going water sector reforms
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan's economy. It contributes 19.5percentages to the GDP of the
country. Almost 85 percent of the population is involved directly or indirectly with agriculture.
Thelivelihood of theses farming communities depends on

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 agriculture but it is characterized as a relatively risky business. Therefore, it affects the interests of
farming communities. The major risks in agriculture caused by different internal and external factors are
classified as the production, marketing and financial risks, whereas the major reasons for low
productivity and reliability of farm income include the non-availability of improved seeds, fertilizers
used, weed infestation, shortage of irrigation water, drought and seasonalvariation of rainfall,
inadequate research efforts and inefficient extension with respect to many agriculture crops Most
common practices for low productivity are crop intensification,mono-cropping and conventional soil
management practices.

Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors and specifically the Pakistan
agriculture sector and has faced agriculture extreme weather events like untimely and heavy rainfall Flash
Mountain and floods in us area affecting huge damage to the major crops and properties of is the
farmers. So it above mentioned situation will increase as function of climate change, paying attention to
the significance of agriculture to the country economy and rural livelihoods. The importance of climate
change adaptation approaches is, even though adaptation strategies are very important all farmers do
not use such strategies and the majority of rural households and connected urban populationsin
developing countries as well as in Pakistan are highly dependent on agriculture. Therefore, adaptation to
the negative impacts due to climate variability may be essential to encourage food security for the
country and to protect the subsistence of rural households. On major food cropsof Pakistan,including
wheat,rice, maize, and the cash crop sugarcane. The methods were employed to achieve the objectives
and obtained mixed results. Some climate variables affect the crop yield negatively and significantly, while
others are not significant. The most influential climatic variables for wheat crop production in Pakistan
were observed to be maximum temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. The finding confirmed that
maximum temperature is significant and negatively Pakistan lies in arid and semi-arid region and is facing
rising temperatures. This increase in temperature will cause severe impacts. Pakistan is an agriculture
based country but it is on decline and farmers' inclination towards agriculture is not the same as it was a
decade ago. Climate change has potential impacts on agriculture but the farming community is not even
aware of it. They don't know that cropping pattern may face drastic changes in the coming

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 20-30 years because of rising temperatures. We could see a 60 percent loss of production due to
climate change. Farmers are still following traditional methods of farming. In this regard a project will be
launched in different ecological zones of Punjab. Three ecological zones (Cotton Zone, Rice Zone and Arid
Zone) will be selected to explore the effects of climate change on the farming communities and farmers'
concern toward climate change; Findings of this project will be helpful in formulating policies, especially
for farming communities living in these ecological zones. The effects of global climate change in Pakistan
are already evident in the form of growing frequency of droughts and flooding, increasingly erratic
weather behavior, changes in agricultural patterns, reduction in freshwater supply and the loss of
biodiversity. In short,climate change could hinder the achievement of many of the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs), including those of poverty eradication, child mortality, malaria,and other
diseases,and environmental sustainability. Much of this damage would come in the form of severe
economic shocks. Therefore, mitigating and adapting actions are considered to be the two key ways of
combating climate change. Almost 50 percent of the land area of Pakistan is at the risk of getting affected
just because of climate change. Pakistani Himalayan glaciers that feed almost seven great Asian rivers are
getting affected by the changing climate. These glaciers are expected to completely mnelt down in the
coming 50 years. The developing countries are the ones that are most vulnerable to the environmental,
social and economic impacts of climate change. This is mostly due to their geographical location and
socio-economic fragility the adverse effects and impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of
Pakistan could cause havoc in the country. The recent floods have caused a loss of 2.6 million acres of
land resources whereas the wheat yields are estimated to decline by 6 to 9 percent and have given rise to
food inflation. As the industrial sector of Pakistan depends upon the agricultural sector, these climate
changes have a direct effect on the economy of Pakistan.

Monsoon in summer is another blessing of nature which transports water from the Bay of Bengal and the
Arabian Sea to Pakistan which makes the western border for this weather system to reach. On one hand,
the seasonal march of monsoon (onset, number of rainy days,offset etc.) Is disturbed due to changing
climate, on the other hand its inter-annual variability has posed a serious challenge for the sustainable
crop production. Pakistan's hydrological

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regime upstream and downstream is highly connected; if water from heavy rainfall or snow/glacier
melting, it immediately runs down to the low elevation plains of Sindh and Punjab flooding the
cultivated lands and destroying standing field crops. In case of weak monsoon and less rainfall in the
northern half, again the agricultural plains of south suffers a lot due to intense heat, higher water
demands but less available water. There are two major rainy seasons in Pakistan which corresponds
to winter and summer, The major risk in agriculture caused by different internal and external factors
are classified as the production, marketing and financial risks,whereas.The major reasons for low
productivity and reliability of farm income include the non availability of improved seed, fertilizers;
weed infestation, shortage of irrigation water,drought and seasonal variation of rainfall, inadequate
research efforts and inefficient extension services with respect to many agricultural crops. Most
common practices for low productivity are crop intensification, mono-cropping and conventional soil
management practices. Pakistan lies in arid and semni-arid region and is facing rising temperatures.
This increase in temperature will cause severe impacts. Pakistan is an agriculture based country but it
is on decline and farmers' inclination towards agriculture is not the same as it was a decade ago.

Climate change has potential impacts on agriculture but the farming community is not even aware of it.
In short, climate change could hinder the achievement of many of the Millennium Development Goals
(MDGs), including those of poverty eradication, child mortality, malaria,and other diseases, and
environmental sustainability. Much of this damage would come in the form of severe economic
shocks.Therefore, mitigating and adapting action are considered to be the two keys ways of combating
climate change, Almost 50 percent of the land area of Pakistan is at the risk of getting affected just
because of climate change. Pakistani Himalayan glaciers that feed almost seven great Asian rivers are
getting affected by the changing climate.These glaciers are expected to completely melt down in the
coming 50 years. The developing countries are the ones that are most vulnerable to the environmental,
social and economic impacts of climate change. This is mostly due to their geographical location and
socio-economic fragility. Finally the adverse effects and impacts of climate change on the agricultural
sector of Pakistan could cause havoc in the country.

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DISTRICT PROFILE OF TANDO ALLAHYAR

1.1 History

The town was founded by Mir Allahyar Khan Talpur Qila was built in (1804). Tando Allahyar old name is
(qunday je wasi). 4 km away from Tando Allahyar there is found an ancient monument which is called
(Abul Jo Daro) Abul was a king of old age. The establishment of Tando Allahyar started with construction
of a fort by Mir Allahyar Khan Talpur in 1709. The mud/ clay fort is located at a distance of 3 kilometers
from the current center of the town. This fort was built to look after his territory. A large number of
people seeking security and refuge moved to this area under the protection of the Mir; these
settlements gave the city a trading boom as well. As it progressed over the next decade this area started
to be known as Allahyar Jo Tando (Allahyar's Town).The shrine of old Sindhi legendary character of folk
wisdom and Sufi poet Watayu Faqeer is also situated in Kuba Shareef near Rashidabad, Tando Allahyar.
In 1906 duringthe British Raj,a Railway station was established here. This step brought about a
revolution in the town increasing its importance as an agro-trading hub. It shaped Tando Allahyar to
what it is now.From Allahyar Jo Tando it became Tando Allahyar.Source:wikipedia

The British Raj brought the fort of Mir Allahyar under its official use. (This fort is now known as the Kacho
Qilo); however some decorated walls from the times of Mir Allahyar Khan are still present. Since 1933
after the construction of canal, the city of Tando Allahyar turned into an agricultural heaven. Before 1947
the city had large number of Hindu followers. The temple of Baba Ramdevji Rama-Pir was a Symbol
Hindu-Muslim unity and peaceful co-existence.However,after the Indian Partition a number of Hindu
followers left for India. The temple still stands tall in the 'own center attracting hundreds of pilgrims from
all around the region.

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1.2:VILLAGE PROFILE OF MUBARAK JARWAR
Mubarak Jarwar is a large village on the Mirwah road from Tando Allahyar to Mirwah Town. It is fertile with
green lands and thickly populated area. It is about two hundred years old. It is also the Headquarter of
Union Council Mubarak Jarwar since 1959. Population of Began Jarwar village is more than 3,000,[citation
needed] and population of UC is about 20,000.[citation needed] The village has many basic facilities as
dispensary, schools, veterinary centre for animals,agriculture office etc.

In village majority of people belongs to Jarwar community but there are alsoother communities such as
Rind, Lohar (Samoon), Bheel, Kolhi, Sheedi, Umrani, and Shaikh. There is an OGDCL oil field.[1] It is part of
Chamber Taluka situated 25 kilometers from Chamber Town in north and 13 kilometers south of the city of
Tando Allahyar.

1.3:The Crops,Vegetables and Fruits Grown In Village Mubarak Jarwar

Rabi Season Kharif Season

Wheat, Berseem, Rapeseed Cotton,Suharcane, Maize,
Crops Millet,
Tomato, Onion,Radish, Chilies
Vegetable
Cauliflower Spinach Etc
And Rmustard.
Fruit Jujube Mango, Banana, Chiku,
Papaya,Jaman,

1.4: Objective of the Study area

·To study the impact of climate on agricultural in study area.

·Social Economics impact of farmers Due to climate change.

Impact of climate change on Health, education and infrastructure.

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Hypothesis
Due to disaster and shortage of water agriculture Productivity is most effect in the study
area.

Due to disaster and heavy rain fall infrastructure is most effect in the study area.

·Due to human diseases and reduced production,the social economics conditions are
profoundly affected in the study area.

Education and health are significantly affected due to exchange of weather in the study area.

1.5 Research methodology

We applied in the research method multi stage sampling in this report and selected many farmers from each
Talukas i.e Tando Allahyar,Mubarak Jarwar UC bengan Jarwar.The research has been made by questionnaire
which is given below.

To prepare a base line a questionnaire designed for growers.

Survey and ask questions to farmer and growers at their field.
Interview and discussion with growers about climate change, impact of rain fall and shortage of water.
Focus on crop damages and crop production.
Focus on education,health and also social economics status.

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 1.6: Climate change

The Weather Conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period. Climate is the statistics
(usually, mean or variability) of weather, usually over a 30-year interval. It is measured by assessing the
patterns of variation in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind,precipitation,atmospheric
particle count and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time. Climate
differs from weather, in that weather only describes the short-term conditions of these variables in a
given region.

Climate is traditionally defined as the description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant
atmospheric variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind. Climate can thus be viewed as a
synthesis or aggregate of weather. This implies that the portrayal of the climate in a particular region must
contain an analysis of mean conditions, of the seasonal cycle, of the probability of extremes such as severe
frost and storms, etc. Following the world meteorological organization, 30 years is the classical period for
performing the statistics used to define climate. This is well adapted for studying recent decades since it
requires a reasonable amount of data while still providing a good sample of the different types of weather
that can occur in a particular area.However, when analyzing the most distant past, such as the last glacial
maximum around 20 000 years ago, climatologists are often interested in variables characteristic of longer
time intervals. As a consequence, the 30-year period proposed by should be considered more as an
indicator than a norm that must be followed in all cases. This definition of the climate as representative of
conditions over several decades should, of course,not mask the fact that climate can change rapidly. Never
the less, a substantial time interval is needed to observe a difference in climate between any two periods.
In general, the less the difference between the two periods, the longer is the time needed to be able to
identify with confidence any changes in the climate between them.

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1.7:Different definitions of climate change
The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, terrain, and altitude, as well as nearby water bodies
and their currents. Climates can be classified according to the average and the typical ranges of different
variables, most commonly temperature and precipitation. The most commonly used classification
scheme was originally developed.

Climate change is an increasing issue of agriculture that has a direct influence on crops yield.By means of
4.5 billion years of world's creation,its environment has been continually varying:however these changes
generally happen on two scales like geological and astronomical and are too slow to observe on a human
scale. Climate change is related directly or indirectly to human actions that change the global atmospheric
conformation. Pakistan is ranked 28th amongst severely affected countries from climate change.Climate
change and crop production are interrelated. It is necessary for a country tomake its agriculture sector
well organized to foster food security, quality of life, and to support rapid economic growth. Crop
productivity is affected by climate variables like temperature, rain that is in two ways direct and indirect
impact. Direct effects comprises plants transpiration rate, soil moisture, plant intake status and plant yield
affect its respiration and photosynthesis processes, indirect impact includes plants pest and disease influx
processes which are triggered by increased humidity and temperature in atmosphere.Intense
temperature results in increased transpiration rate that ultimately leads to high irrigation water demand.
Temperature has elevated around 1 ℃ during last periods because of deforestation and fossil fuel burning
causing enormous negative effects on crop productivity as well as on environment. Due to climate
change,growing season length of wheat will be reduced that have negative effect on yield. The increase in
air temperature shortens winter season and the productivity of some Rabi crops will be greatly affected.

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 1.8 Difference between weather and climates

Atmospheric conditions constitute the weather and climate of a particular region. Weather refers to
atmospheric state of a locality at a specified time within a day/week/month or year.lt is expressed in
terms of atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, light intensity,precipitation (ram and snow
fall) and winds etc. These parameters mneasured and averaged for a long duration (many years) represent
the climate of an area. It follows that weather indicates atmospheric changes within a short period of
time. One the other hand climate shows atmospheric conditions prevailing in an area for a long period of
time. So Climate Represent the average of weather record of many years. The daily forecast of
temperature,humidity and rain or snow fall shows the weather conditions. The average of such data of a
particular week or month in a year also indicates the weather conditions of that week or month. However
the average of such data of a month over several years constitutes the climate in that particular
moon.Thus weather may change from day to day, but the climate of a given area is not likely to change
appreciable within a century. Microclimate refers to the atmospheric state in a small area or near the
ground surface e.g. the climates of a filed or around a plant or leaf surface.Source:(cropping technology
book by iqtidar Ahmed 2009)

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1.9:Climatic components
The important parameters which determine the climate of a locally are:

(1) Temperature

(li) Humidity

(lii) Pressure

(Iv) Rain And Snow Falls

(V)Winds,Storms

(Vi) Light/Clouds.

Temperature: The heat produced by the solar energy or sun is measured as temperature.The
amount of solar radiations' falling on the earth determines it's temperature. It is the simplest
weather element,which is measured more frequently than any other kind of data. It is recorded
with thermometer and most commonly expressed by the Celsius scale (℃)the daily maximum and
minimum temperature are measured. The temperature s vary with latitude (the distance from the
equator) of the area as the distance from the equator increase the temperature decrease,and the
growing season is shooter. Altitude (theheight) also influence the temperature falls by about 1℃
for every 100 m increase in altitude .this means that at mountain the tempter will be lower than
that of the plain valleys. Source: (cropping technology book by iqtidar ahmad 2008)

Humidity:The moisture content of the air is expressed in term of humidity measure by an

instrument caled hygrometer. Absolute humidity is the mass vapour per unit volume of air,usually
expressed as gram of water per cubic meter of air it amount of water vapour held by a unit volume
of air. Relative humidity (1-h) is the ratio of absolute humidity (a.h) to that o saturated humidity
(s.h). It is usually expressed as percentage and can be calculated as follows:

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R.h=a.hx100/s.h

Pressure: Pressure refers to the force per unit area excreted upon a surface. Atmospheric pressure
refers to the weight of air. It is measured with the help of an instrument, called barometer.When the
mercury Colum of barometer falls (low pressure) usually is indicative of a fair weather.

Rain and snow falls: When water vapors condensed in the cold,air the liquid falls in the form of drops,
called rain or precipitation. It is measured by an instrument called reengage.If the temperature of the
air is too low to freeze its moisture, the Solid water or ice falls as snow .the amount of snow or rain is
expressed in millimeters (mm). It is usually reported as mean monthly/seasonal or annual rain or snow
fall. The mean is calculated from past data 25 to 35 years.The mean seasonal rainfall of selected of
Pakistan.

Winds/storms: When cooler and heavier air moves to low pressure zones.Air currents are called
winds .if the pressure is too low in locality the winds move with high velocity from high-pressure zones.
This is known as wind storm or simply storm. The intensity of wind is measure from the distance
travelled by it in per unit time. Mostly its speed in km per hour is recorded by an instrument called
anemometer.

Light/clouds: The duration of light from sunrise to sunset is referred to as daylight or potential light. It is
measures in hours per day. It indicates the day length shih varies considerably with latitudes and
determines the seasons. The total hours of sunshine each day can be recorded by and instrument, called
a camp bell stoke.

1.10:Climatic factors and crop production

Crop production is related to the climate and weather condition of a locality. Climate Determine the crops
that can be grown.weather affected the yield of crops in different ways.The various climate factor affecting
the plant processes and crop productivity are briefly discussed as follows: Temperature: Temperature
affected crops from seed germination to harvesting and even further during storage. Seeds of most crop
plants germinate really within a

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 temperature range of 15-30c. So the crops should be sown at appropriate time to fulfill their
temperature requirement for normal germination and growth. Temperature affects plant function
such as photosynthesis, respiration, and cell-wall permeability, absorption of water and its solutes,
and transpiration. In general, photosynthesis and respiration takes place slowly at low temperatures.
Transpiration rates are relatively low at the lower temperatures,absorption of water and solutes
increases with a rise in temperature. Temperature also influences plant growth by its effect on the
microbial population of the soil, which generally increases with a rise in soil temperature. The
relationship between yield and temperature varies for different species and for different cultivars of
the same species. The winter (Rabi)crops react differently to temperature changes than do the
summer (Kharif) crops. Some winter crops require exposure to low temperature (3-7 c) for the
initiation of flowing. This response is known as verbalization.

Humidity: Humidity is directly related to the transpiration (evaporation form leaf surface)of plant. Thus
it affects the water requirements of crops. In an atmosphere of low relative humidity the plant need
more water to sustain growth. In summer (kharif) season the relative humidity is low (about 15 %
around mid-day) in arid/semi-arid zones. This adversely affects the growth of crops ad decrease and
productivity. In temperate zones the water loss by transpiration is considerably reduced in an
atmosphere of high relative humidity. However, this situation in some case causes the incidence of
diseases, because most pathogenic fungi (mildews) and rusts) thrive best at high relative humidity.

Rain and snow fall: Rain and snow are the water sources for the soil and crops.The effect of water on
plants and the role of soil water in crop production have been highlighted in section. Plant growth is
related to water availability. Growth is restricted at both very low and very high levels of soil moisture.
Water is required for the synthesis of carbohydrates and as vehicle for the transportation of nutrients. In
addiction internal] moisture stress causes a reduction both in cell division and in cell elongation, thereby
influencing growth.When moisture supplies are adequate an increase in nutrient uptake increase the
water efficiency of plans. Thus the amount of precipitation and its frequency of occurrence affect the yield
and

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 quality of crops. This is especially true for rain fed (bargain) areas, where crop production largely
depends on rain water. Rain water regulates the soil and atmospheric temperature, and thus crates a
better environment for the vegetative and growth of the plans. How create problems during
harvesting/fruit picking. At such time it may promotes fungal disease,and thus lowers crop quality.
Heavy rains causes floods, which results nutrient losses by leaching and soil erosion. This Limit
nutrient availability to plans, and thus reduces their productivity.

Pressure and winds/storms: Atmospheric pressure affects the crops as it is related to air-
movement,which influences pollination and fertilization. Low pressure may cause Strong winds and
reduce crop yield due to lodging, and flower/fruit crop.In sandy areas the sand and dust particles
carried out by wind may damage the plant tissues. Emerging seedlings may be completely covered or,
alternatively, the roots of young plants may be exposed by strong winds. Winds also affect bee-activity,
essential for pollination of many orchard or fruit crops.Hot,dry winds have a negative effect on plants
by upsetting their internal water balance. The loss of water through transpiration is increased. This may
cause the onset of drought (water stress) in dry periods, which leads to stromal closure. Consequently
the rate of gaseous exchanges is reduced, which adversely affects photosynthesis and crop growth rate
thus damaging the crop by weed spread and disease. Wind can limit application of pesticides with sped
over 15 km per hour. It can also interfere with uniform application of sprinkler water. This ultimately
reduces farm productivity. Wind can also cause serious erosion of soil in dry periods.

Light / clouds: The duration of light is of major importance to the growth and development of plants.
The effect of photopertidism (i.e. the relative length of daily light and dark periods) on the vegetative and
reproductive stages of development is well-known.Actually, the duration of the night or of complete
darkness is more important than the length of daylight. Most typical tropical corps are short-day plants
(requiring long nights for flowing),while those of the higher latitudes are generally long-day plants. Some
plants have different photoperiodic requirements for different developmental stages: wheat, for
example, is day-neutral for floral initiation, but long day for fruiting. Regulating the timing of floral
initiation is feasible,while fruiting generally thrives under extended daylight condition (long day). Control

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 of the time of flowering is extremely important for the adaptability of a crop to a given environment. The
fundamental process of photosynthesis in green plants depends on light intensity. As long co2 and
temperature are not constraining factors,the rate of photosynthesis rises with higher levels of irradiance.
Light also affects the rate of transpiration by its influence of stomata (leaf opening) cloudy weather
especially during the cool season causes decreased stomatal opening in most species that are native to
sunny habituates. Leaf development,its expansion and the final breath and thickness in cereals increase
with increasing radiation.Tailoring that is the Production of secondary shoots from the exiles of leaves on
the main stem,is also influenced by light intensity. The number of tillers increases linearly with increasing
radiations (lqtidar, 2004).

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 CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW

Climate change is an increasing issue of agriculture that has a direct influence on crops yield. By means
of 4.5 billion years of world's creation, its environment has been continually varying;however these
changes generally happen on two scales like geological and astronomical and are too slow to observe on
a human scale. Climate change is related directly or indirectly to human actions that change the global
atmospheric conformation. Pakistan is ranked 28th amongst severely affected countries from climate
change. Climate change and crop production are interrelated. It is necessary for a country to make its
agriculture sector well organized to foster food security, quality of life, and to support rapid economic
growth. Crop productivity is affected by climate variables like temperature, rain that is in two ways direct
and indirect impact. Direct effects comprises plants transpiration rate, soil moisture, plant intake status
and plant yield affect its respiration and photosynthesis processes, indirect impact includes plants pest
and disease influx processes which are triggered by increased humidity and temperature in
atmosphere.Intense temperature resuIts in increased transpiration rate that ultimately leads to high
irrigation water demand. Temperature has elevated around 1;c during last periods because of
deforestation and fossil fuel burning causing enormous negative effects on crop productivity as well as
on environment. Due to climate change, growing season length of wheat will be reduced that have
negative effect on yield. The increase in air temperature shortens winter season and the productivity of
some rabbi crops will be greatly affected.

Researcher suggested that, flood are effected the irrigation which must be escaped and current
imaginative irrigation techniques ought to be assumed like routine use of drip, sprinkler, and ooze
scheme in order to overcome the water shortage. We take to manage with climate change situation at
local, domestic, and worldwide level over establishing reasonable benefit in farming and agro based
trades.

Takhleeq foundation, studied human losses and destruction caused by disasters are avoidable tragedies
and their impact can be limited through comprehensive disaster risk reduction (drr)

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measure across all sectors. Drr is a systematic approach to identifying, assessing and reducing the risks
of disaster. It aims to reduce socio-economic vulnerabilities to disaster as well as dealing with the
environmental and other hazards that trigger them. Drr is very wide-ranging and its scope is much
broader and deeper than conventional emergency management. There is potential for drr initiatives in
just about every sector of development and humanitarian work.Investing in drr not only minimizes
losses but also supports the achievement of millennium development goals. For example, drr promotes
health and education by protecting public infrastructure such as schools and hospitals, poverty
reduction by protecting economic activities and assets, and gender equality by empowering women to
play an active role in risk reduction initiatives. Recovery from disaster provides the opportunity to
rebuild better and avoid repetition of mistakes. This handbook has been written in view of recent
devastating floods in sindh. It is primarily for local people and local consumption. The handbook
provides a comprehensive statement and reference point for hazard and disaster research, policy
making and practice in a local context. It will help users to conceptualize the risks, expand their
knowledge on how to incorporate drr in their lives and settlements. Efforts were made to ensure that
local media groups would have easy access to information on disaster risk reduction that could be
incorporated into their future programs.

Irshad ali sodhar defined as "a catastrophic event that brings about great damage, destruction and
devastation to life and property." the damage caused by disasters varies depending upon geographical
location, climate severity and above all, the types of disasters. Disasters have been classified into two
categories-natural disasters and man-made disasters. Cyclones, tsunami,floods,droughts, earthquakes
and volcanoes are a few examples of natural disasters;and wars and nuclear accidents fall in the
category of the man-made disasters. All these calamities and catastrophes incur heavy toll on man and
his habitat. However,the disasters can be mitigated and lossescan be minimized with efficient
preparedness and management.
Goosse het all (2010) studied the climate traditionally defined as the description in terms of the mean
and variability of relevant atmospheric variable such as temperature, precipitation and wind,Climate
can thus be viewed as a synthesis of aggregate of weather. This implies that the

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portrayal of the Climate particular region must contain an analysis of mean conditions,of the seasonal
cycle, of the probability of extremes such assevere frost and storms, etc,Following the world
meteorological organization is the classical period for performing the statistics used to define climate.
This is well adapted for studying recent decades since it requires a reasonable amount of data while stil
providing a good sample of the different types of weather that can occur in a particular area, However,
when analyzing the most distant past, such as the last glacial maximum around 20 000 years ago,
climatologists' are often interested in variables characteristic of longer time intervals, As a
consequence,the 30-year period proposed by the who should be considered more as an indicator than
a norm that must be followed in all cases,This definition of the climate as representative of conditions
over several decades should, of course, not mask the fact that climate can change rapidly.
Nevertheless, a substantial time interval 1s needed to observe a difference in climate between any two
periods. In general, the less the difference between the two periods, the longer is the time needed to
be able to identify with confidence any changes in the climate between them.

Rasul, g. 2010 and chaudhary et al.,(2009), studied the monsoon in summer is another blessing of
nature which transports water from the bay of Bengal and the Arabian sea to Pakistan which makes the
western border for this weather system to reach. On one hand, the seasonal march of monsoon (onset,
number of rainy days, Offset etc.) Is disturbed due to changing climate,on the other hand its inter-annual
Variability (repeated drought/flood events) has posed a serious challenge for the Sustainable crop
production. Pakistan's hydrological regime upstream and downstream is highly connected; if north gets
surplus of water from heavy rainfall or snow/glacier melting, it immediately runs down to the low
elevation plains of sindh and Punjab flooding the cultivated lands and destroying standing field crops. In
case Of weak monsoon and less rainfall in the northern half, again the agricultural plains of south suffers
a lot due to intense heat,higher water demands but less available water.

Maiss,1996 andmetz et e/.(2009) studies, the atmospheric concentration of all the ghgs has been
increased and ratio of increase varies from gas to gas. Life time of their existence in the air maybe
defined as the length of time the atmosphere returns to equilibrium state (normal level)

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 after its entry.For example carbon dioxide molecule after entry interacts physically and chemically with
several others and finally absorbed by the oceans. Life time of all the other gases is taken relative to
(times) carbon dioxide. For example, a molecule of sulphur hexafluoride in atmosphere 3200 times
longer time than a molecule of carbon dioxide.

Rasul et al.,(2008)reported the tropical cyclones are the storms associated with strong winds speeding
up to 200 km/h and very heavy precipitation of the magnitudes of hundreds of millimeters in an
hour.They make a clean sweep of infrastructure, crops and trees as well as inundating the whole area.

Rasul et al., (2008) showed that under global warming and changing climate, Pakistan is no exception as
both do not follow the political geographical boundaries. Precipitation and thermal regimes in Pakistan
have suffered changes especially in the recent two decades when global atmospheric temperatures have
shown sharp jump. Pakistan enjoys diverse climate ranging from frozen ice caps in the north to burning
deserts in the south. It is bound by the world's highest mountains in the north which act as burning to
the cold waves to penetrate to south in wvinter and obstruct monsoon rains to further extend into the
north in summer.The Arabian sea making the southern border brings lot of moisture in theform of
summer monsoon to nourish the water needs for agriculture, power generation, industry and domestic
usage.Due to rise in temperature, visible changes in hydrological cycle have been observed in the form
of changing precipitation pattern, cropping pattern, droughts, water availability periods,frequency and
intensity of heat waves, precipitation events and weather-induced natural disasters.

Saif Ullah,Department of Agronomy,2007 Pakistan being an agro-based economy is at threat due to the
global climatic changes. The country ranks 12th among the Countries of the WVorld that are expected to
be severely affected by climate change. The country is sensitive to both increases in temperature and
changes in precipitation. These could increase vulnerabilities for agriculture,forest and water resources
upon which depend a large part of the economy and livelihoods.

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 Increasesintemperatures due to climate change couldparticularly alter bio-physical relationships for
crops, livestock, fisheries, forests such as shortening of the growing periods,changing the species
patterns, increasing thermal and moisture stresses, changing water requirements, altering soil
characteristics, and increasing the risk of pests and diseases.The effects of climate change on agriculture
and other natural resources may vary across the diverse agro-ecological regions. In the dry western
mountainous areas, the increase in temperatures could enhance the process of destruction by affecting
our water resources on which the country depends for agriculture and energy production. These
mountainous areas are already under severe pressure due to various natural and anthropogenic
(human) activities.Consequently, there is an ongoing process of environmental degradation in such
areas.The major human induced factors causing environmental degradation in the mountainous areas
are: mismanagement/ overexploitation of natural resources, deforestation and unsustainable
agricultural practices (cultivation on steep slopes and forest encroachment for agriculture land). Global
climatic changes (i.e. increases in temperature and changes in precipitation) are expected to further
enhance the ongoing process of watershed degradation and would seriously endanger the sustainability
both of mountainous areas as well as sub-mountain and downstream plain areas in Pakistan in general
and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in particular.Some of the regions of the country over higher latitudes
(including Chitral) that cover about 17percent of the total area are short of heat and therefore may
benefit from rising temperatures.Rise in temperature could well enhance crop growth and faster
maturation that allow earlier planting and earlier harvesting of the winter crops. Crop yields are
expected to increase in these areas as well as expansion of the crop area because of increase in
temperature. Double cropping would also be possible utilizing both winter and summer seasons. Forest
species pattern may change. Fast growing species are expected to replace conifers. These higher latitude
areas are however vulnerable to frequent flash floods causing heavy losses to land,agricultural
properties and livelihoods assets. In the lower latitude areas, climate change will well reduce crop and
livestock yields due to heat and water stresses especially the increases in temperature.The lower
latitudes will also be affected by climatic hazards such as droughts and floods the frequency of which has
already increased in these areas since the last two decades

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perhaps due to climate change. Timely preparation and adaptation to climate change is needed not
only to tap positive opportunities but also to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in all sectors
of the economy in general and agriculture, livestock, forest and water resources in particular. This
would include among others for example the re orientation of research and developmentto
developappropriate technologies, introductionof appropriate species/varieties and other management
practices for crops, livestock and forestry etc. to tap the future potentials and opportunities arising from
climate change. At the same time efforts would be needed to introduce measures (structural and non-
structural including bioengineering measures) to protect natural resources from climate related hazards
that are expected to increase due to climate change and may well outpace the positive impacts of these
climate changes.

Uzma Hanif,Shabib Haider Syed,repoted that The main objective of the study is quantification of the
impact of change in climate normal in order to have a viable and sustained development of the
agricultural sector both at the regional and country level. A one-way fixed effect panel model for eleven
districts over the time horizon 1970-2009 has been estimated with the FGLS panel regression technique.
The results of the panel regression of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature are derived
from data of Punjab agricultural land. The inclusion of the Kharif and Rabi seasons climate variables are
important components of the assessment model,as these have not been taken into consideration in any
previous assessment. The results show that the Kharif zna Rabi variables (seasonal variables in the
context of the sowing and harvesting time-periods) are significantly related to land price per acre. The
study also confirms the general hypothesis that climate change impinges considerably on the price of
agricultural land,which is a long-run variable for net revenues.

Eid,H.M., S.M.El-Marsafawy and S.A. Ouda.2007. Assessing the economic impacts of climate change on
agriculture the arid region of sindh is also going to be effected by climatic changes.An economic effect of
climate change on agriculture of arid region was estimated by using Ricardian technique. Primary data was
collected from the farmer felds while secondary data of temperature. After estimating the NFR, it was
regressed on climate and other control variables

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 across farms. The estimated regression results were applied to climate scenarios. The scenarios with
losses had overall harmful temperature impacts,with offsetting precipitation benefits.

In the beneficialscenarios, there were increasesofprecipitation.Overall increase in temperature is

observed in the arid region. Increase in temperature has significantly reduced net revenues and also the
future forecast predicted a loss in net revenues. The increased temperature has made the farmers of the
arid areas more vulnerable as land holding are mainly small. So increase in temperature will lead the
farming community to increase in overall poverty of the region due to dry arid land conditions. The overal
extent of negative impact of temperature is greater than the positive effect of rainfall in the region.It was
revealed that one percent increase in temperature would lead to loss of Rs. 4180 to the net revenue per
annum.Dissemination of new farming techniques including new irrigation methods, new methods of crop
farming and adapted cropping pattern would be the appropriate derivatives of paradigm shift required in
the agriculture sector of arid region. Survey statistics of climate change impacts: The survey analysis gave
us the estimated results which are in accordance with our estimated regression analysis. Survey analysis
provided us the information about the farmer's observation about climate change. A change in climate on
their respective farms is observed by 94 percent of the farmers contrary to only 6 percent farmers who
did not observe any specific change in climate of their respective farms. About 95 percent of the farmers
commented that temperature increase and rainfall decrease is the main cause in changing climate. The
rains have been dried up causing dramatic changes in the agriculture productions. Temperature increase
has caused a change in overall production. Only 6 percent informed that climate change has a appositive
impact on crop production. Forty four percent farmers reported that temperature has increased over
time. Twenty eight percent of the farmers told that rainfall is increasing over time. Fifty one percent of the
farmers reported that rainfall has decreased over time. Only 13 percent farmers observeda decrease in
temperature. Overall decrease in rainfall was observed. Sixty five percent of the farmers reported a severe
loss in wheat production due to changing climate. As wheat crop is highly sensitive to the changing
climatic conditions increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall both has alarming effects on wheat
production.

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Neil Leary and Jyoti Kulkarni, (2007), work is based on a combination of case Studies from different
regions of the world. These studies have debated climate Vulnerability to impacts from climate variation
and change. The potential outcomes from exposure to climate hazards and climate change are identified
as high level concern in these studies.. It includes water scarcity that retards progress towards
development goals, losses of entire ecosystems and their species, more frequent and greater loss of life
in coastal zones, land degradation, food insecurity and famine, loss of livelihoods and increase in
infectious disease epidemics, All of these are possible outcomes of exposure to climate hazards. It is a
source of greater information as it has addressed climate change impacts on all fronts of life whether it is
social,economic or political.

Santiago Olmos (2007) provides an outline of adaptation issues, subject to climate vulnerability literature
and climate discussions. This paper covers assessments of climate vulnerability in various regions of the
world and developing countries in particular. The paper also discusses some of the existing resources that
can be used to conduct climate vulnerability assessments and adaptation work. The current research
work is unique in the sense that it will point out the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector
of Pakistan. More specifically, major areas of concern will be the climate impact on crops yields in sindh
over the last three decades. The direct and indirect social and economic impacts of climate change will
also be analyzed in this study.Adaptive and preventive measures in coping with extreme climate
conditions will also be given in this research study.

(G.Malla.2004). Repotted Climate change is definitely a phenomenon that arises due to emissions of
greenhouse gases from energy combustion, deforestation, urbanization and industrialization,resulting
variations in solar energy, heat and precipitation.

(Upreti,1999). This can be a real threat to life which largely affects water methods,agriculture,coastal
regions,freshwater habitats, vegetation, forests, snow go over, and geological processes such as for
example melting, territory sliding, desertification and floods which have long-term impacts on food
security and human wellbeing Climate change is a global concern;debated on at all fronts be it political,
monetary or scientific. Climate must be prevented from

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further destruction. Before the end arrives, there is a need on all levels of society to understand
climate, the factors behind change and its effect on our agriculture and market.

A notable fact is that agriculture serves as the backbone of Pakistan economy, constituting around
80% of the country market through various agricultural and agri-related activities.Agriculture is
comparatively considerably more sensitive to improvements in climate, and may be impacted
severely due to events such as for example untimely rainfalls, extreme temperature ranges and
carbon dioxide concentrations. A need arises to closely take notice of the environment and consider
up necessary actions for tackling these problems. This research work can be an attempt to address
the issues and problems faced by Pakistan's agricultural sector and discover the required solutions.

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 CHAPTER THREE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGES
3.1 Shortage of water

3.1.1 Introduction:

This brief is aimed at international community to brief recent water crisis in Sindh, a southern province of
Pakistan. Thisbrief also communicates the concerns of people of Sindh regarding progressive damming of
the river Indus in Pakistan and erosion of Sindh's primary rights over waters of river Indus (Sindhu). The
decades of preferential governance,tempering with mighty forces of nature, abusive management of
natural resources and selective distribution of peoples' resources was destined to bring this grave crisis.
prevailing drought and water shortages in Sindh is bound to leave inerasable marks on Sindh's economy
and its people. With wapda and the (Indus river system authority) announcing that tarbela dam has
reached its critically low levels and there will be no release of any water from it for irrigational use from
march to may 2001, Sindh ominously faces another year of decreased agricultural production,primarily
because of non-availability of irrigation water to standing crops, especially wheat and delayed sowing of
cash crops, especially cotton. In Sindh, the cotton sowing starts in March and is completed by the end of
April. During this period, only 10,000 cusecs of drinking water will be released in the Indus River. After
deducting mandatory drinking water-supply for karachi and wastages, only 8,000 cusecs will be left at
canal-heads and most of this will perish route to remote villages of Sindh and hardly a few thousands
cusecs will be available at distal ends of water distributaries, sufficient only for drinking purpose. Since the
cotton is cash crop of Sindhi farmer as well as backbone of Sindh's agro-based economy it is anybody's
guess to think of impending economic disaster.

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3.2:Water scarcity

Is the lack of sufficient availablewater resources to meet the demands of water usage within a region? It
already affects every continent and around 2.8 billion people around the world at least one month out of
every year. More than 1.2 billion people lack access to clean drinking water.Water scarcity involves water
stress, water shortage or deficits, and watercrisis.While the concept of water stress is relatively new, it is
the difficulty of obtaining sources of fresh water for use during a period of time and may result in further
depletion and deterioration of available water resources. Water shortages may be caused by climate
change, such as altered weather patterns including droughts or floods, increased pollution, and increased
human demand and overuse of water. A water crisis is a situation where the available potable,unpolluted
water within a region is less than that region's demand. Water scarcity is being driven by two converging
phenomena: growing freshwater use and depletion of usable freshwater resources. Water scarcity can be
a result of two mechanisms: physical (absolute)water scarcity and economic water scarcity, where
physical water Scarcity is a result of inadequate natural water resources to supply a region's demand, and
economic wNater scarcity is a result of poor management of the sufficient available water resources.
According to the United Nations development programmers the latter is found more often to be the
cause of countries or regions experiencing water scarcity, as most countries or regions have enough water
to meet household, industrial, agricultural, and environmental needs, but lack the means to provide it in
an accessible manner. Source (wikipedia)

it is the main issue of Sindh province, with the Indus river swelling in a flood and the heavens beginning
to open, the farmers in parts of badin still lack water to irrigate their crops. The woes of these growers,
whose agricultural lands are unluckily located at the tail-end of the irrigation system,linger on for most
parts of the year, reportedly due to official corruption and in competence.source: drm (2008).

There is abundant water in the irrigation system to irrigate all the land in the tail-end areas but
mismanagement and corruption have deprived thousands of families from earning, and also the water
crisis in Sindh, a southern province of Pakistan. This statement effectively conveys the

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 concerns of people of sindh regarding the ongoing dam construction on the Indus River. The decades of
preferential governance, tempering with mighty forces of nature, abusive management of natural resources
and selective distribution of peoples' resources was destined to bring this grave crisis. Recent water crisis
opening of canal is a yet another criminal onslaught from punjab on Sindh's rightful waters in connivance
with federal water and power ministry.Despite, not allowed under the irsa act (Indus river systems
authority) of 1992 this year the Indus flow is expected to be the worst in the last five years, causing serious
problems for the Coming kharif crop in Sindh. In June, Sindh suffered 54 per cent shortage as Water.
(Source:sidra majeed, dr shahid ahmad.

3.3:Disasters
Disaster is defined as "a catastrophic event that brings about great damage, destruction and devastation to
life and property." the damage caused by disasters varies depending upon geographical location, climate
severity and above all, the types of disasters. Disasters have been classified into two categories-natural
disasters and man-made disasters. Cyclones, tsunami,floods, droughts, earthquakes and volcanoes are a few
examples of natural disasters; and wars and nuclear accidents fall in the category of the man-made disasters.
All these calamities and catastrophes incur heavy toll on man and his habitat. However, the disasters can be
mitigated and losses can be minimized with efficient preparedness and management. Source:(by irshad ali
sodhar book drm

Pakistan experienced humanitarian crises of an unprecedented magnitude caused by flash flooding during
the heavy monsoon rains in 2010. Many districts of Sindh were hit very severely and it has been observed
that the floods have severely destroyed most of the infrastructure and displaced thousands of people: many
of them took shelter in government buildings such as schools and public parks. Consequently the economy
of the province has had greatly been crippled.

Human losses and destruction caused by disasters are avoidable tragedies and their impact can be limited
through comprehensive disaster risk reduction (DRR)measure across all sectors. DRR

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is a systematic approach to identifying, assessing and reducing the risks of disaster. It aims to reduce
socio-economic vulnerabilities to disaster as well as dealing with the environmental and other
hazards that trigger them. DRR is very wide-ranging and its scope is much broader and deeper than
Conventional emergency management. There is potential for DRR initiatives in just about every
sector of development and humanitarian work. Investing in DRR not only minimizes losses but also
supports the achievement of millennium development goals. For example, DRR promotes health and
education by protecting public infrastructure such as schools and hospitals, poverty reduction by
protecting economic activities and assets, and gender equality by empowering women to play an
active role in risk reduction initiatives.Recovery from disaster provides the opportunity to rebuild
better and avoid repetition of mistakes. This handbook has been written in view of recent
devastating floods in Sindh. It is primarily for local people and local consumption. The handbook
provides a comprehensive statement and reference point for hazard and disaster research, policy
making and practice in a local context. It will help users to conceptualize the risks, expand their
knowledge on how to incorporate DRR in their lives and settlements. Efforts were made to ensure
that local media groups would have easy access to information on disaster risk reduction that could
be incorporated into their future programs.

3.4:Natural disasters
A natural disaster is the effect of a natural hazard (e.g., flood earthquake, tornado,hurricane,volcanic
eruption ,or landslide).it leads to financial, environmental or human losses, the resulting loss
depends on the vulnerability of the affected population to resist the hazard, also called their
resilience.this understanding is concentrate in the formulation disasters occur when hazards meet
vulnerability "a natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without
vulnerability, e.g. Strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas. The term natural has consequently been
disputed because the events simply are not hazards or disasters without human involvement. A
concrete example of the division between a natural hazard and a natural disaster is that the Pakistan
was a disaster, whereas earthquakes are a hazard. Given below is the list of natural disasters.

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3.5:Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Sindh

Define: Develop a disaster preparedness and response plan for involvement of Pakistan Sindh armed
forces in response operations in close coordination with and according to specific requirements of local
civil authorities; submit the ministry's plan to NDMA in order to ensure effective coordination; assess
vulnerability of assets, infrastructure and personnel of the Pakistan armed forces to disaster risks and
integrate vulnerability reduction measures; prepare inventory of resources that are available with armed
forces for relief, rescue and evacuation;equip military response teams to perform various tasks; e.g.
Search and rescue, evacuation, fire fighting,first aid; integrate disaster risk management education into
the syllabusof national defense college,staff college,regimental centre's and armed forces training
institutions;take actions to reduce the risks of nuclear, biological and radiological accidents in the
facilities managed by the ministry in close collaboration with Pakistan atomic energy
commission,Pakistan nuclear regulatory authority and other relevant agencies; conduct drills/simulations
with army personnel and other stakeholders about disaster response operations.Deploy armed forces for
disaster response upon receipt of instructions from the NDMC; assist communities in evacuation,and
rescue the trapped groups and individuals during disasters; provide essential first aid as required and
transport injured to the hospitals; undertake aerial and field assessment in collaboration with other
Stakeholders to identify needs of survivors; deploy helicopters and other air Services for emergency
response, relief delivery and for recovery of affected people; assist civilian authorities in reconstruction
and rehabilitation of infrastructure as needed.

3.6:Floods

When rivers overflow their banks they cause damage to property and crops Floods are common and
costly natural disasters, Floods usually are local, short lived events that can happen suddenly,sometimes
with little or no warning, They usually are caused by intense storms that produce more runoff than an
area can store or a stream can carry within its normal channel Rivers can also flood when dams fail. Small
streams are subject to floods (very rapid increases in

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 runoff), which may last from a few minutes to a few hours, on larger streams, floods usually last from
several hours to a few days. A series of storms might keep a river above flood stage (the water level at
which a river overflows its banks) for several weeks, Floods can occur at any time,but weather patterns
have a strong influence on when and where floods happen.Cyclones, or storms that bring moisture inland
from the ocean, can cause floods. Thunderstorms are relatively small but intense storms that can cause
floods in smaller streams Frontal storms form at the front of large, moist air masses moving across the
country and can cause floods.Hurricanesare intense tropical storms that can cause floods. The size, or
magnitude, of a flood is described by a term called recurrence interval. By studying a long period of flow
records for a stream, it is possible to estimate the size of a flood that would, for example, have a 5-year
recurrence interval (called a 5-year flood). A 5-year flood is one that would occur, on the average, once
every 5 years. Although a 100-year flood is expected to happen only once in a century, there is a 1
percent chance that a flood of that size could happen during any year.Flood plains are lands bordering
rivers and streams that normally are dry but are covered with water during floods. Floods can damage
buildings or other structures placed in flood plains.They also can change the pattern of water flow and
increase flooding and flood damage on adjacent property by block. The confluence of river basins, the
canal irrigation network and interrupted drainage System are some of the major reasons of flooding in
Pakistan.

The province of Sindh experienced severe flooding after torrential monsoon rains hits its southern part in
two spells in august 2011. The devastating rains triggered heavy flooding resulting in inundation of vast
areas, causing wide spread damages to the lives & livelihoods the affected as well as infrastructure. The
excessive amount of rain even exceeded the drainage capacity of the infrastructure such as the bod,
which facilitated the drainage of the water to some extent but was not designed to channel flood water.
The rains of 2011 affected 8.9million population killing 414 peoples. Entire villages and urban centre's
were flooded, homes were destroyed and over a million acres of crops and agricultural lands were
damaged. The impact of the flooding cannot be seen in isolation. In 2010, 7.8 million people were
affected by the largest floods in living memory, many people of who were still in recovery phase. Where
as many district were effected 2011 2010,like as Tando allahyar, Thatta,Hyderabad,Whereas also

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Jamshoro ,shaheed ,benazirabad, Badin,naushehro, feroze, Mirpurkhas, dadu, §Tando Muhammad
khan, larkana, Tandoallahyar, Sukkur, Tharparkar,Ghotki, Khairpur,
Ghotki,shikarpur,naushehroferoze,kashmore,sanghar,jacobabad,matari,kamberShahdadkot,umerkot
t.m. khan, Dadu. In order to ascertain damages to the houses, a rapid housing survey was
conducted by the pdma in coordination with respective district governments, which identified
679,539 damaged houses completely.

3.7:Social Economic

The economic analysis of climate change explains how economic thinking, tools and techniques are
applied to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damage caused by climate change.It also
informs the policies and approaches for mitigation and adaptation to climate change from global to
household scales. This topic is also inclusive of alternative economic approaches,including ecological
economics and degrowth. In a cost-benefit analysis, the trade of between climate change impacts,
adaptation, and mitigation are made explicit. Cost-benefit analyses of climate change are produced
using integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate aspects of the natural, social, and
economic sciences. The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate, but
increase for higher temperature changes.

Climate change impacts can be measured as an economic cost. This is particularly well-suited to
market impact that is impacts that are linked to market transactions and directly affect
GDP.However,monetary measures of non-market impacts, e.g,, impacts on human health and
ecosystems, are more difficult to calculate. Economic analysis of climate change is challenging as it is
a long-term problem and has substantial distributional issues within and across countries.
Furthermore, it engages with uncertainty about the physical damages of climate changes,human
responses,and future socioeconomic development.

In most models, benefits exceed costs for stabilization of GHGs leading to warming of 2.5 ℃. No
models suggest that the optimal policy is to do nothing, i.e., allow "business-as-usual"emissions. Sub-
topics within the economic analysis concept are the economic impacts of climate change, as well as
the economics of climate change mitigation. Climate change mitigation consists of human actions to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions or to enhance carbon

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sinks that absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. A number of sectors will be affected by
climate change, including the livestock, forestry, and fisheries industries. Other sectors sensitive to
climate change include the energy, insurance, tourism and recreation industries.The exact aggregate
impact of climate change on most of these sectors is still uncertain.

3.8:Health
See also: Effects of climate change on human health. In those studies that had included health
impacts,those impacts contributed substantially to the total costs of climate change.
In 2019 the International Labour Organization published a report titled: "Working on a warmer planet:
The impact of heat stress on labour productivity and decent work", in which it claims that even if the
rise in temperature will be limited to 1.5 degree, by the year 2030, Climate Change will cause losses in
productivity reaching 2.2% of all the working hours,every year.This is equivalent to 80 million full-time
jobs, or 2,400 billion dollars.The sector expected to be most affected is agriculture, which is projected
to account for 60% of this loss. The construction sector is also projected to be severely impacted and
accounts for 19% of projected losses.Other sectors that are most at risk are environmental goods and
services, refuse collection,emergency,repair work,transport, tourism, sports and some forms of
industrial work.

3.9:Agriculture Economics

Climate change seems to be larger, more complex and more unpredictable than any other
environmental problem. This review deals withthe economic effects of climate change on global
agricultural production. The causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse, while
populations in low-income countries are increasingly exposed to its negative effects.Supplying the
population with food is possible with increased agricultural production,but this often occurs under
unsustainable circumstances. Increased agricultural production is also one of the main sources of
greenhouse gas emissions. In this research we highlight some of the important connections between
climate change, population growth and agricultural production.

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Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change.Plausible
estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate,crop,and economic modeIs.
Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models,scenarios, and data. This
paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the
economic component of the assessment,investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture
represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two
climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and
international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change's representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The
mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050
relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%,
increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%.Agricultural production, cropland
area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and
consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in
particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study
identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research
activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.

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 CHAPTER FOUR
RESULT & DISCUSSION
Table 1: Affect on source of income in study area.

Source Of Income Frequency Percent

Affected In Study Area

Agriculture farmer 23 46%

private job 11 22%

Labor 10 20%

Govt job 6 12%

Total 50 100%

This table shows source of income in study area as agriculture farmer 46% and private job are
22% then labor 10% and government job 6%

Table 2: impact of climate change onagriculture farming

Impact of climate change Frequency Percent

on agriculture
Low production 28 56%

Damage 22 44%

Total 50 100%

This table impact of climate change on farming 56% low production and damage 44%.

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Table 3: most crop sown in study area

Main crops sown Frequency Percent

wheat 14 28%

Cotton 12 24%

Sugarcane 11 22%

Other 10 20%

Vegetable 4 8%

Total 50 100%

This table shows area of crop sown in study area wheat 28% cotton 24%,sugarcane 22%,other
20%,vegetable 4% in study area.

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Table 4: Specific crop that more affected
Frequency Percent
affect of climate change
on agriculture crops 32%
Cotton 16

Wheat 15 30%

Other 11 22%

Vegetable 8 16%

Total 50 100%

This table shows specific crop in study area cotton 16% wheat 15% other 11%,vegetable 8%, in
study area.

Table 4: seasonally impact on crop production

Seasonally impact of Frequency Percent

water and drought

Summer 39 78%

Winter 11 22%

Total 50 100%

Explain this table the impact of shortage water and drought in the study area 78%in summer and
22% winter.

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 Table 5: climate change impact on education in study area.

Impact on education Frequency Percent

Poverty 9 45%

Health 7
35%
Infrastructure 4 20%

Total 20 100%

This table shows Impact on education in study area 45% poverty, 35% health and 20%infrastructure.

Table 6: climate change impact on health in study area.

Impact on health
Frequency Percent
Asthma 11 55%
Skin disease 9 45%

Gastric 4 20%

Total 20 100%

This table shows Impact on health in study area 55% asthma, 45% skin disease and 20%gastric.

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 SURVEY QUESTIONAIRE
Respondent Personal Information

Name Of Respondent:

Caste: Age Year.

Gender: Male [ ] Female [ ]

Family type: Joint [ ] Single [ ]

Marital status: Single [ ] Married[ ] widow[] Divorced[ ]

Education:Tick Illiterate [ ]Primary [] Middle[ ] Matric[ ]

Intermediate[] Graduate [ ] Post Graduate [ ]

Language: Religion

Address of Displacement:

Village

Deh

UC

Taluka

District

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Household Members

Household Members Total Number

Male Child (>1 to 15 Year)

Young (15 to 25 Year)

Middle age (25 to 40 year)

Old men (40 to 60 year above)

Female Child (>1 to 15 Year)

Young (15 to 25 Year)

Middle age (25 to 40 year)

Old women (40 to 60 year above)

SOURCE OF INCOME

Source of income Total number Average HH Income

Agriculture labour

Labour outsider the village

Government job

Private job

Seasonal worker

Other

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Q:1 Which source of income is more affected?

A)Farmer B)Labor C)Govt Job D)Private Job E) Other

Q:2 What is the effect of climate change in your agriculture farming?

A)Low production B)Damage C) Other

Q:3 What are the main crops sown in your field?

A)Wheat B)Cotton C)Sugarcane D) Other

Q:4 Which crop is more affected in your field?

A)Cotton B)Wheat C)Vegetable D) Other

Q:5 Which season is more effect in your crop production?

A)Winter B) Summer C)Atom D)Spring

Q:6 which impact of climate change in your health?

A)Asthma B)Skin Disease C) Gastro C) Other?

Q;7 Which impact of climate change in your education?

A) Poverty B)Health C) Infrastructure D) Other

Q 8:Are you aware of climate change and its impact on agriculture?

A)Yes B) No

Q9:Have you noticed any changes in local weather patterns and temperatures in recent
years?

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A)Yes B) No

Describe

Q10:Have you faced challenges like droughts, floods, or irregular rainfall?

A) Yes B) No

Describe

Q11:How did they impact your farming?

A)Yes B) No

Describe

Q12:How does climate change impact the availability of natural resources in rural areas?

A)Yes B) No

Describe

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 Conclusion
It has been disasters have very much damage in term of rain fall. The heavy rain fall has totally
destroyed the vegetable crops and also damage major andminor crops of district Tando Allahyar village
Mubarak jarwar in 2022 august, rain fall not only damage the major and minor crops but also it effects
fruit orchards. The heavy rain fall also reduce the soil fertility by removing upper layer of the soil
organic matter and soil loose nutrients and become week and saline.

Climate change greatly affects agriculture, causing shifts in weather patterns, altering growing seasons,
impacting crop yields, and threatening food security. Increased temperatures,changing rain fall
patterns, and extreme weather events like floods and droughts pose challenges to farming practices
and can lead to reduced productivity and potential food shortages. Adapting agriculture practices and
implementing sustainable approaches are crucial to address these challenges,

Climate change significantly affects agriculture by altering temperature and rainfall patern,leading to
reduced crop yields, shifts in plating zones, increased pest and disease pressures, and heightened
water stress. These changes threaten food security, livelihoods of farmers,and can destabilize global
food production systems, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive strategies and sustainable
agriculture practices to mitigate these impacts.

Climate change has a significant impact on public health. Raising temperatures, extreme weather
events, increased air pollution, and changes in infectious disease patterns are just a few examples of
how climate change can affect people health. It can exacerbate respiratory issues, spread diseases,
and strain healthcare systems, making it a critical issue needing attention and action.

Climate change affects education in several ways. It can disrupt schooling due to extreme weather
events, impacting access to educationfacilities. Additionally, changes in environmental patterns might
alter traditional learning curriculum and education priorities. Education about

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climate change becomes crucial, fostering awareness and preparing future generations to tackle
environmental challenges.

Climate change significantly impacts infrastructure by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events like floods, storms and heat waves. These events can damage roads,buildings,and
utilities,leading to higher maintenance cost and disruptions in services.Adapting infrastructure to be more
resilient and sustainable is vita to withstand these challenges in the face of a changing climate.

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