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Sally Clark Conditional Probability

The Sally Clark case is a significant legal case in the UK that illustrates the dangers of misapplying conditional probability in court, leading to her wrongful conviction for the deaths of her two sons. Expert witness Sir Roy Meadow presented flawed statistics that treated the deaths as independent events, while the correct approach considers them as dependent, significantly altering the interpretation of evidence. Clark's conviction was overturned in 2003, highlighting the need for accurate statistical reasoning in legal contexts.

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46 views2 pages

Sally Clark Conditional Probability

The Sally Clark case is a significant legal case in the UK that illustrates the dangers of misapplying conditional probability in court, leading to her wrongful conviction for the deaths of her two sons. Expert witness Sir Roy Meadow presented flawed statistics that treated the deaths as independent events, while the correct approach considers them as dependent, significantly altering the interpretation of evidence. Clark's conviction was overturned in 2003, highlighting the need for accurate statistical reasoning in legal contexts.

Uploaded by

rajeshhhi049
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Sally Clark Case - Conditional Probability Analysis

Introduction

The Sally Clark case is a landmark legal case in the UK that highlights the devastating consequences of

misapplying statistical reasoning, especially conditional probability, in a courtroom.

Case Summary

Sally Clark was a British solicitor convicted in 1999 of murdering her two infant sons, Christopher and Harry,

who died within a short time of each other. Initially suspected to have died from Sudden Infant Death

Syndrome (SIDS), the case turned when expert witness Sir Roy Meadow presented flawed statistical

evidence.

The Flawed Statistics

Sir Roy Meadow claimed that the chance of two SIDS deaths in an affluent non-smoking family like Sally

Clark's was 1 in 73 million. He arrived at this figure by squaring the probability of a single SIDS case (1 in

8,543):

P(SIDS1 and SIDS2) = P(SIDS)^2 = (1/8543)^2 ~ 1 in 73,000,000

This assumption treats the two deaths as independent events, which is incorrect in a medical and statistical

context.

Correct Approach Using Conditional Probability

The proper approach is to consider the two events as dependent. That is, once one child dies from SIDS, the

probability that a second child dies from SIDS increases due to shared genetic and environmental factors.

Instead of calculating:

P(SIDS1 and SIDS2) = P(SIDS1) P(SIDS2)

We should consider:
Sally Clark Case - Conditional Probability Analysis

P(SIDS2 | SIDS1) - the probability of second SIDS given the first occurred.

Medical research suggests that this conditional probability can be much higher, around 1 in 100 or more,

significantly altering the legal interpretation of the evidence.

Statistical Fallacies

The case involved two key statistical fallacies:

1. **Prosecutor's Fallacy** - confusing the probability of the evidence given innocence with the probability of

innocence given the evidence.

2. **Base Rate Fallacy** - ignoring the overall rarity of double infanticide compared to recurrent natural infant

deaths.

Impact and Outcome

Sally Clark's conviction was overturned in 2003 after almost four years in prison. The case drew national

attention to the misuse of statistics in courts and prompted reviews of similar cases and expert testimonies.

Tragically, Sally Clark died in 2007 from acute alcohol poisoning, deeply affected by her wrongful conviction.

Conclusion

The Sally Clark case is a powerful reminder of how critical it is to apply statistical principles, especially

conditional probability, correctly. It underscores the responsibility of legal systems to properly evaluate expert

evidence and prevent miscarriages of justice.

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