Inflation - What It Is and How To Control Inflation Rates
Inflation - What It Is and How To Control Inflation Rates
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What Is Inflation?
Inflation is a gradual loss of purchasing power that is reflected in a broad rise in
prices for goods and services over time. The inflation rate is calculated as the
average price increase of a basket of selected goods and services over one year.
High inflation means that prices are increasing quickly, while low inflation
means that prices are growing more slowly. Inflation can be contrasted with
deflation, which occurs when prices decline and purchasing power increases.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Inflation measures how quickly the prices of goods and services are
rising.
Inflation is classified into three types: demand-pull inflation, cost-push
inflation, and built-in inflation.
The most commonly used inflation indexes are the Consumer Price
Index and the Wholesale Price Index.
Inflation can be viewed positively or negatively depending on the
individual viewpoint and rate of change.
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Those with tangible assets may like to see some inflation as it raises
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the value of their assets.
What Is Inflation?
Understanding Inflation
An increase in the money supply is the root of inflation, though this can play out
through different mechanisms in the economy. A country’s money supply can
be increased by the monetary authorities by:
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When inflation occurs, money loses its purchasing power. This can occur across
any sector or throughout an entire economy. The expectation of inflation itself
can further sustain the devaluation of money. Workers may demand higher
wages and businesses may charge higher prices, in anticipation of sustained
inflation. This, in turn, reinforces the factors that push prices up.
Types of Inflation
Inflation can be classified into three types: demand-pull inflation, cost-push
inflation, and built-in inflation.
Demand-Pull Effect
Demand-pull inflation occurs when an increase in the supply of money and
credit stimulates the overall demand for goods and services to increase more
rapidly than the economy’s production capacity. This increases demand and
leads to price rises.
When people have more money, it leads to positive consumer sentiment. This,
in turn, leads to higher spending, which pulls prices higher. It creates a demand-
supply gap with higher demand and less flexible supply, which results in higher
prices.
Cost-Push Effect
Cost-push inflation is a result of the increase in prices working through the
production process inputs. When additions to the supply of money and credit
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are channeled into a commodity or other asset markets, costs for all kinds of
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intermediate goods rise. This is especially evident when there’s a negative
economic shock to the supply of key commodities.
These developments lead to higher costs for the finished product or service and
work their way into rising consumer prices. For instance, when the money
supply is expanded, it creates a speculative boom in oil prices. This means that
the cost of energy can rise and contribute to rising consumer prices, which is
reflected in various measures of inflation.
Built-In Inflation
Built-in inflation is related to adaptive expectations or the idea that people
expect current inflation rates to continue in the future. As the price of goods
and services rises, people may expect a continuous rise in the future at a similar
rate.
As such, workers may demand more costs or wages to maintain their standard
of living. Their increased wages result in a higher cost of goods and services,
and this wage-price spiral continues as one factor induces the other and vice
versa.
Inflation aims to measure the overall impact of price changes for a diversified
set of products and services. It allows for a single value representation of the
increase in the price level of goods and services in an economy over a specified
time.
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Prices rise, which means that one unit of money buys fewer goods and services.
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This loss of purchasing power impacts the cost of living for the common public
which ultimately leads to a deceleration in economic growth. The consensus
view among economists is that sustained inflation occurs when a nation’s
money supply growth outpaces economic growth.
3%
The increase in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers
(CPI-U) over the 12 months ending January 2025 on an unadjusted
basis. Prices increased by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in
January 2025 from the previous month. [1]
To combat this, the monetary authority (in most cases, the central bank) takes
the necessary steps to manage the money supply and credit to keep inflation
within permissible limits and keep the economy running smoothly.
Inflation Example
Credit: Julie Bang / Investopedia
There are a range of measures that individuals can take to protect their finances
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against inflation. For instance, one may choose to invest in asset classes that
outperform the market during inflationary times. This might include
commodities like grain, beef, oil, electricity, and natural gas.
Commodity prices typically stay one step ahead of product prices, and price
increases for commodities are often seen as an indicator of inflation to come.
Commodities, which can also be volatile, are easily affected by natural
disasters, geopolitics, or conflict.
Real estate income may also help buffer against inflation, as landlords can
increase their rent to keep pace with the rise of prices overall.
CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined
basket of goods and averaging them based on their relative weight in the whole
basket. The prices in consideration are the retail prices of each item, as
available for purchase by the individual citizens. CPI can impact the value of
one currency against those of other nations.
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Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of
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living, making it one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying
periods of inflation or deflation. In the United States, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) reports the CPI each month and has calculated it as far back as
1913. [3]
IMPORTANT
The CPI-U, which was introduced in 1978, represents the buying habits of
approximately 88% of the noninstitutional population of the United States.
[4] [5]
While WPI items vary from one country to another, they mostly include items at
the producer or wholesale level. For example, it includes cotton prices for raw
cotton, cotton yarn, cotton gray goods, and cotton clothing. [6]
Although many countries and organizations use the WPI, many other countries,
including the U.S., use a similar variant called the Producer Price Index (PPI). [7]
In all variants, the rise in the price of one component (say oil) may cancel out
the price decline in another (say wheat) to a certain extent. Overall, each index
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represents the average weighted price change for the given constituents which
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may apply at the overall economy, sector, or commodity level.
Percent Inflation Rate = (Final CPI Index Value ÷ Initial CPI Value) ×
100
Say you wish to know how the purchasing power of $10,000 changed between
January 1975 and January 2024. One can find price index data on various
portals in a tabular form. From that table, pick up the corresponding CPI figures
for the given two months. For September 1975, it was 52.1 (initial CPI value),
and for January 2024, it was 308.417 (final CPI value). [9] [10]
Since you wish to know how much $10,000 from January 1975 would be worth
in January 2024, multiply the inflation rate by the amount to get the changed
dollar value:
This means that $10,000 in January 1975 will be worth $59,197 today.
Essentially, if you purchased a basket of goods and services (as included in the
CPI definition) worth $10,000 in 1975, the same basket would cost you $59,197
in January 2024.
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Advantages
Individuals with tangible assets (like property or stocked commodities) priced
in their home currency may like to see some inflation as that raises the price of
their assets, which they can sell at a higher rate.
Disadvantages
Buyers of such assets may not be happy with inflation, as they will be required
to shell out more money. People who hold assets valued in their home
currency, such as cash or bonds, may not like inflation, as it erodes the real
value of their holdings.
High and variable rates of inflation can impose major costs on an economy.
Businesses, workers, and consumers must all account for the effects of
generally rising prices in their buying, selling, and planning decisions.
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Even a low, stable, and easily predictable rate of inflation, which some consider
otherwise optimal, may lead to serious problems in the economy. That’s
because of how, where, and when the new money enters the economy.
Whenever new money and credit enter the economy, it is always in the hands of
specific individuals or business firms. The process of price level adjustments to
the new money supply proceeds as they then spend the new money and it
circulates from hand to hand and account to account through the economy.
Inflation does drive up some prices first and drives up other prices later. This
sequential change in purchasing power and prices (known as the Cantillon
effect) means that the process of inflation not only increases the general price
level over time but also distorts relative prices, wages, and rates of return along
the way. [11]
Pros Cons
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In the U.S., the Fed’s monetary policy goals include moderate long-term interest
rates, price stability, and maximum employment. Each of these goals is
intended to promote a stable financial environment. The Federal Reserve
clearly communicates long-term inflation goals in order to keep a steady long-
term rate of inflation, which is thought to be beneficial to the economy.
For this reason, the Fed doesn’t set a specific goal for maximum employment,
and it is largely determined by employers’ assessments. Maximum employment
does not mean zero unemployment, as at any given time there is a certain level
of volatility as people vacate and start new jobs. [13] [14]
Some critics of the program alleged it would cause a spike in inflation in the
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U.S. dollar, but inflation peaked in 2007 and declined steadily over the next
eight years. There are many complex reasons why QE didn’t lead to inflation or
hyperinflation, though the simplest explanation is that the recession itself was a
very prominent deflationary environment, and quantitative easing supported
its effects. [17] [18]
Moreover, countries that experience higher rates of growth can absorb higher
rates of inflation. India’s target is around 4% (with an upper tolerance of 6% and
a lower tolerance of 2%), while Brazil aims for 3.25% (with an upper tolerance of
4.75% and a lower tolerance of 1.75%). [21] [22]
Conversely, if the inflation rate becomes negative, that means that prices are
falling. This is known as deflation, which can have negative effects on an
economy. Because buying power increases over time, consumers have less
incentive to spend money in the short term, resulting in falling economic
activity.
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through the financial system, much of the immediate effect on prices happens
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in financial assets that are priced in their home currency, such as stocks.
Special financial instruments exist that one can use to safeguard investments
against inflation. They include Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), a
low-risk treasury security that is indexed to inflation where the principal
amount invested is increased by the percentage of inflation. [23]
One can also opt for a TIPS mutual fund or TIPS-based exchange-traded fund
(ETF). To get access to stocks, ETFs, and other funds that can help avoid the
dangers of inflation, you’ll likely need a brokerage account. Choosing a
stockbroker can be a tedious process due to the variety among them.
Examples of Inflation
Since all world currencies are fiat money, the money supply could increase
rapidly for political reasons, resulting in rapid price level increases. The most
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famous example is the hyperinflation that struck the German Weimar Republic
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in the early 1920s.
The nations that were victorious in World War I demanded reparations from
Germany, which could not be paid in German paper currency, as this was of
suspect value due to government borrowing. Germany attempted to print paper
notes, buy foreign currency with them, and use that to pay their debts.
This policy led to the rapid devaluation of the German mark along with the
hyperinflation that accompanied the development. German consumers
responded to the cycle by trying to spend their money as fast as possible,
understanding that it would be worth less and less the longer they waited. More
money flooded the economy, and its value plummeted to the point where
people would paper their walls with practically worthless bills. Similar
situations occurred in Peru in 1990 and in Zimbabwe between 2007 and 2008.
[24] [25] [26]
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On the other hand, this could harm importers by making foreign-made goods
more expensive. Higher inflation can also encourage spending, as consumers
will aim to purchase goods quickly before their prices rise further. Savers, on
the other hand, could see the real value of their savings erode, limiting their
ability to spend or invest in the future.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to lockdowns and other restrictions that greatly
disrupted global supply chains, from factory closures to bottlenecks at
maritime ports. Governments also issued stimulus checks and increased
unemployment benefits to counter the financial impact on individuals and
small businesses. When vaccines became widespread and the economy
bounced back, demand (fueled in part by stimulus money and low interest
rates) quickly outpaced supply, which struggled to get back to pre-COVID levels.
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rose, it led to similar increases down the value chains. The Fed raised interest
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rates to combat the high inflation, which significantly came down in 2023,
though it remains above pre-pandemic levels. [29] [9]
The Bottom Line
Inflation is a rise in prices, which results in the decline of purchasing power over
time. Inflation is natural and the U.S. government targets an annual inflation
rate of 2%; however, inflation can be dangerous when it increases too much,
too fast.
Inflation makes items more expensive, especially if wages do not rise by the
same levels of inflation. Additionally, inflation erodes the value of some assets,
especially cash. Governments and central banks seek to control inflation
through monetary policy.
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ARTICLE SOURCES
Understanding Inflation
1 9 Common Effects of Inflation
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Types of Inflation
Understanding Hyperinflation
Understanding CPI
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