Probability: Describing and Predicting Likelihood

Primary Six Notes

What is Probability?

Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to happen. It helps us describe and predict
the chance of something occurring.

Key Terms in Probability

1. Event: Something that happens or can happen (e.g., flipping a coin, rolling a dice).

2. Outcome: The result of an event (e.g., getting "heads" when flipping a coin).

3. Likelihood: How likely an event is to happen. It can be described as:

o Certain: Will definitely happen (e.g., the sun rising tomorrow).

o Likely: Has a high chance of happening (e.g., it might rain if the sky is cloudy).

o Unlikely: Has a low chance of happening (e.g., winning the lottery).

o Impossible: Cannot happen (e.g., rolling a 7 on a regular six-sided dice).

4. Random: Something that happens without a predictable pattern.

Probability Scale

We use a scale to describe the likelihood of events:

 0 (Impossible): The event will never happen.

 1 (Certain): The event will always happen.

 Fractions or Decimals: Used to describe how likely an event is between impossible and
certain.

For example:

 Tossing a coin and getting "heads" has a probability of 0.5 (or 50%).

 Rolling a dice and getting a 6 has a probability of 1/6.

1. Equally Likely Events: All outcomes have the same chance (e.g., rolling a dice and getting
any number from 1 to 6).

2. Unequally Likely Events: Some outcomes are more likely than others (e.g., drawing a red
card from a deck with mostly red cards).

3. Independent Events: Events that don’t affect each other (e.g., tossing two coins).

Examples to Practice

1. Flipping a Coin:

o How many sides does a coin have? 2 (Heads and Tails).

o Probability of getting heads = 1/2 or 50%.

2. Rolling a Dice:

o A dice has 6 sides.

o Probability of rolling a 4 = 1/6.

3. Drawing a Card:

o A deck of cards has 52 cards.

o Probability of drawing a red card = 26/52 = 1/2.

Why is Probability Important?

Probability helps us:

 Make predictions (e.g., weather forecasts).

 Understand games of chance (e.g., board games).

 Make decisions in real-life situations (e.g., deciding whether to carry an umbrella).

Activity for Students

1. Coin Toss Experiment:

o Toss a coin 20 times.

o Compare: Were the results close to 50% for each side?

2. Dice Roll Experiment:

o Roll a dice 30 times.

o Record how many times each number appears.

o Compare: Were the results close to 1/6 for each number?

Probability: Describing and Predicting Likelihood

Comprehensive Notes for Primary Six Students

Introduction to Probability

Probability is the study of how likely an event is to happen. It helps us describe and predict
outcomes in different situations. It is used in games, science, weather forecasting, and even
decision-making in everyday life.

Key Concepts in Probability

1. Event: An event is anything that happens or can happen. For example:

o Tossing a coin.

o Rolling a dice.

o Drawing a card from a deck.

2. Outcome: The result of an event. For example:

o Flipping a coin gives two possible outcomes: "Heads" or "Tails."

o Rolling a dice gives six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

3. Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of an event. For example:

o For tossing a coin, the sample space is: {Heads, Tails}.

4. Likelihood: Likelihood tells us how probable an event is. It is described in four main
ways:

o Certain: Will definitely happen (e.g., the sun rising tomorrow).

o Likely: Has a high chance of happening (e.g., a cloudy day leading to rain).

o Unlikely: Has a low chance of happening (e.g., finding treasure in your backyard).

o Impossible: Can never happen (e.g., rolling a 7 on a six-sided die).

5. Random: Random events happen without any predictable pattern or order.

Types of Events

1. Equally Likely Events:

2. Unequally Likely Events:

3. Independent Events:
Events that do not affect each other.
Example: Tossing two coins (the result of one coin does not affect the other).

4. Dependent Events:
Events where one outcome affects the other.
Example: Drawing two cards from a deck without replacing the first card.

5. 1. What Are Mutually Exclusive Events?

6. Mutually exclusive events are events that cannot happen at the same time. In other
words, if one event occurs, the other cannot.

7. Key Characteristics:

8. The events have no overlap.

9. The probability of both events happening together is zero.

10. Examples:
11. Tossing a coin: Getting "Heads" and "Tails" are mutually exclusive because you cannot
get both at the same time.

12. Rolling a dice: Rolling a "2" and rolling a "5" are mutually exclusive because a dice can
only show one number at a time.

13. Formula for Mutually Exclusive Events:

14.

15. 2. What Are Non-Mutually Exclusive Events?

16. Non-mutually exclusive events are events that can happen at the same time. In other
words, the events have some overlap, and it is possible for both to occur together.

17. Key Characteristics:

18. The events can overlap.

19. The probability of both events happening together is not zero.

20. Examples:

21. Drawing cards: Drawing a "King" and drawing a "Heart" are non-mutually exclusive
because the King of Hearts satisfies both conditions.

22. Students choosing subjects: A student taking "Math" and "Science" are non-mutually
exclusive because some students can take both subjects.

23.

24. Illustrative Example

25. Mutually Exclusive Example:

26. Event ( A ): Rolling a "4" on a dice.

27. Event ( B ): Rolling a "5" on a dice.

28. These two events are mutually exclusive because you cannot roll both "4" and "5" at the
same time.

29. Non-Mutually Exclusive Example:

30. Event ( A ): Drawing a "Heart" from a deck of cards.

31. Event ( B ): Drawing a "Queen" from a deck of cards.

33.

34. Summary

35. Mutually Exclusive Events: Cannot happen together (e.g., rolling a "2" or a "3").

36. Non-Mutually Exclusive Events: Can happen together (e.g., drawing a "King" or a
"Heart").
Use the appropriate formulas to calculate probabilities for each type of event! 😊