Diabetes Prediction Using Gradient Boosting

Algorithm
M. Dhilsath Fathima M. Akash A. Yashwanth Reddy
Department of Information Department of Information Technology, Department of Information
Technology, Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr. Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr. Sagunthala Technology, Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr.
Sagunthala R&D Institute of Science R&D Institute of Science and Sagunthala R&D Institute of Science
and Technology, Technology, and Technology,
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
0000-0002-4491-4352
G. Trilok
Department of Information
Technology, Vel Tech Rangarajan
Dr. Sagunthala R&D Institute of
Science and Technology,
Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
[email protected]

Abstract: Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs)—in particular,

eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)—have emerged
Diabetes is a prevalent and chronic metabolic as leading methods for classifi- cation tasks. They offer
disorder that has increasingly become a global health robust handling of missing values, effective feature
crisis. Early and precise detection is crucial in mitigating ranking, and a consistent framework for building
the severe complications associated with diabetes, such as ensembles of weak learners.
cardiovascu- lar diseases, kidney failure, and neuropathy.
This research presents an advanced predictive model II. RESEARCH CONTRIBUTION
utilizing the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)
algorithm, specifically fine- tuned to enhance both 1. Development of an Accurate Diabetes Prediction
accuracy and efficiency in diabetes prediction. Our model Model.
incorporates sophisticated techniques including The research presents a machine learning-based
hyperparameter tuning, feature selection, and en- semble approach using Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) for
learning to improve predictive capabilities. Through early and precise diabetes prediction.
comprehensive evaluations conducted on the PIMA
Indian Diabetes Dataset (PIDD), our findings reveal that The model is trained on a well-curated dataset,
the proposed model significantly outperforms traditional incorporating key health indicators such as glucose
classifiers in terms of accuracy and computational levels, BMI, insulin levels, and other clinical
efficiency. This study highlights the immense potential of parameters.
gradient boosting-based models in assisting healthcare
professionals with early-stage diabetes detection, and it
Compared to traditional methods, this approach
presents a robust framework for integrating machine
enhances prediction accuracy and reduces false
learning techniques into clinical decision support systems.
positives.
Keywords— Diabetes Prediction, Machine Learning, Gradi- 2. Improved Features Selection and Data
ent Boosting, XGBoost, Healthcare Analytics Preprocessing Techniques.
I. INTRODUCTION The study implements feature engineering, outlier
handling, and data balancing techniques to improve
Diabetes mellitus is one of the most common chronic model performance.
metabolic disorders globally, affecting an estimated 463
mil- lion people as of 2019. The burden is particularly
The SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values
significant in low- and middle-income countries where
are used to explain the importance of individual
most cases oc- cur. Early detection and management are
features, making the model more transparent.
vital for prevent- ing complications like cardiovascular
diseases, neuropathy, retinopathy, and kidney failure.
Traditional diagnostic tools, though accurate, are often Techniques such as SMOTE (Synthetic Minority
expensive and time-consuming— factors that impede Over-sampling Technique) are used to address class
their widespread adoption in resource- limited settings. imbalance in the dataset.
3. Efficient and Scalable Model for Real-World
Recent advancements in data analytics and machine Applications.
learning provide promising alternatives. These techniques
can analyze extensive datasets, identify subtle patterns,
and predict out- comes with high accuracy. Among them,

979-8-3503-4891-0/23/$31.00 ©2023 IEEE

 The model is optimized for low-latency predictions, tree(DT),provide interpretable but less accurate results
making it suitable for real-time screening in inability to comprehend the complex, non-linear
hospitals and telemedicine applications. relationships in healthcare data. With advancements in AI,
ensemble learning methods like Random forest(RF) and
The research explores the potential of integrating support vector machines(SVM) improved prediction but
the trained model into a web-based or mobile health has high computational cost and sensitivity to
application to provide instant risk assessments to hyperparameter tuning.
users. Recent studies have highlighted the efficiency of
4. Bridging Gaps in Diabetes Diagnosis and Gradient boosting-based approaches, particularly XGBoost
Awareness. has demonstrated superior predictive performance. Which
Many individuals remain undiagnosed until severe can handle missing data, quantify feature importance, and
symptoms appear. This model aims to provide an building strong ensembles. Research comparing different
early warning system, especially for at-risk Machine Learning techniques for “diabetes prediction”
populations. conforms that “Gradient Boosting consistently outperforms
traditional classifiers. And additionally explainable AI
The study demonstrates how machine learning in techniques like SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations), are
healthcare can assist doctors in decision-making increasing being integrated into machine learning modes to
while empowering individuals with preventive increase the interpretability for understanding and
healthcare insights. predictions.
Chakraborty et al. [2] investigated ensemble learning
III. RESEARCH MOTIVATION OF THIS PROPOSED MODEL techniques, particularly Random Forest (RF) and Support
Healthcare accessibility remains a significant global Vector Machines (SVM), for disease prediction. Their
challenge, with millions of individuals facing delays in study found that while these models improved accuracy
receiving medical consultations due to overburdened compared to traditional methods, they were
healthcare systems. Early disease detection is crucial for computationally expensive and required extensive
improving patient outcomes, yet traditional diagnostic hyperparameter tuning to achieve optimal performance.
tools, such as rule-based symptom checkers, often lack
flexibility and fail to accurately interpret diverse patient
inputs. Additionally, medical professionals face increasing Jain and Sharma [3] conducted a comparative analysis of
workloads, leading to long wait times and delayed Gradient Boosting techniques and found that XGBoost
diagnoses. The integration of Large Language Models consistently outperformed conventional machine learning
(LLMs) in medical diagnosis presents a transformative classifiers in medical applications. They highlighted
solution by enabling AI-driven chatbots to provide XGBoost’s ability to handle missing data, optimize
preliminary assessments, assist in triaging cases, and decision trees efficiently, and enhance generalizability,
enhance overall healthcare efficiency. By leveraging the making it a strong candidate for diabetes prediction.
Mistral decoder-based architecture along with Retrieval-
Augmented Generation (RAG) and FAISS, our chatbot
model enhances response accuracy and relevance, allowing Kumar et al. [4] explored the potential of LightGBM and
users to receive more human-like and reliable diagnostic CatBoost in healthcare analytics. Their research
suggestions. demonstrated that these boosting algorithms offer high
computational efficiency and scalability, making them
AI-powered chatbots have the potential to revolutionize
particularly useful for large-scale medical datasets. They
healthcare accessibility by automating initial consultations
further highlighted that boosting models provide robust
and reducing the strain on medical professionals. Studies
feature selection mechanisms, which are crucial in medical
indicate that misdiagnosis affects millions of patients
applications.
annually, and traditional symptom checkers often struggle
with ambiguous or complex symptom descriptions. LLMs
can process unstructured medical text, understand natural
Dey et al. [5] introduced the use of explainable AI (XAI)
language queries more effectively, and generate context-
techniques, specifically SHAP (Shapley Additive
aware responses that improve diagnostic reliability. With
Explanations), to enhance model interpretability in diabetes
an experimental accuracy of 82.5%, our chatbot
prediction. Their study demonstrated that SHAP can
outperforms conventional rule-based systems,
effectively identify key clinical features influencing a
demonstrating improved response quality and reduced
patient’s diabetes risk, thereby increasing trust and
latency. This research aims to refine AI-driven medical
usability among healthcare professionals.
chatbot interactions, ensuring they are scalable, medically
informed, and capable of enhancing early disease detection
while maintaining ethical and clinical reliability.
IV. RELATED WORK
Diabetes prediction have been widely explored in
medical research using “machine learning techniques”.
Early models like logistic regression(LR) and decision
 Brown et al. [6] extended this research by optimizing  Identifies key features such as Glucose, BMI,
XGBoost hyperparameters for medical classification tasks. Age, Blood Pressure, and Insulin levels.
Their findings indicate that careful tuning of learning rate,
 Uses SHAP values to rank feature importance.
tree depth, and regularization parameters significantly
improves model accuracy and reliability in predicting  Removes highly correlated or redundant
diabetes risk factors. features.
Phase 3: Model Training & Optimization
Alvarez et al. [7] examined the feasibility of deep  Implements XGBoost as the primary
learning models such as Convolutional Neural Networks classification model.
(CNNs) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) in
 Performs hyperparameter tuning using Grid
healthcare. They concluded that, while these models
Search and Randomized Search CV.
achieve high accuracy, their requirement for large labeled
datasets and extensive computational resources makes  Evaluates model performance using k-fold
them impractical for real-time diabetes screening. They cross-validation.
emphasized that Gradient Boosting models offer a more
Phase 4: Model Evaluation & Validation
efficient and scalable solution, striking a balance between
accuracy, interpretability, and computational feasibility.
The proposed work enhances the optimized Gradient  Assesses model effectiveness through
Boosting-Based Diabetes Prediction Model. This approach Confusion Matrix, ROC Curve, and AUC
uses Feature Selection, Data Balancing Score.
Techniques(SMOTE), and Hyperparameter Tuning to
 Compares XGBoost with other models
enhance predictive accuracy while maintaining clinical
(Logistic Regression, Random Forest, SVM).
interpretability and practical usability
 Monitors overfitting via Training vs. Validation
Loss Graphs.
V. OUTLINE OF THE PROPOSED MODEL Phase 5: Deployment & User Interaction

The proposed model uses the “Gradient

 Deploys the model using Flask/Django API.
Boosting(XGBoost)” to differentiate diabetic or non-
diabetic individuals basrd on medical parameters. The  Builds a user-friendly web interface
model follows the streamlined process of “data (Streamlit/Flask) for real-time predictions.
preprocessing, feature engineering, model training, and
deployment, to ensure high accuracy and interpretability.  Allows users to input medical parameters and
The interpretability is due to the SHAP values for feature receive diabetes risk predictions.
importance, hyperparameter tuning for optimization and  Algorithms Used.
advanced evaluation metrics, the model improves
diagnostic precision. the final step is to deploy a “Web-  XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) for high-
based application”, which allow users to input their performance classification.
medical data and receive real time diabetes risk prediction.  SHAP for feature importance analysis.
This way the individuals can detect early diabetic state and
also supports clinical decision-making.  Grid Search CV for hyperparameter tuning

 System Architecture.  Evaluation metrics.

The proposed model follows a structured approach:  Accuracy: Measures overall model correctness.

Phase1: Data Collection & preprcessing  Precision & Recall: Evaluates false
positives/negatives.
 Uses medical datasets (e.g., PIMA Indian
Diabetes Dataset).  F1-score: Balances precision and recall.

 Handles missing values using mean/mode  AUC-ROC Curve: Measures classification

imputation. effectiveness.

 Detects and treats outliers vi the interquartile range  Visualization & Interpretability.
(IQR)method.  Feature Importance Graphs for explainability.
 Applies feature scaling  Confusion Matrix for classification accuracy.
(StandardSccaler/MinMaxScaler) for
normalization.  ROC Curve for sensitivity and specificity.

Phase2: Feature Engineering & Selection  Accuracy vs. Epochs Graph for training
performance.
 glucose levels, BMI, insulin levels, and age. The
preprocessing stage involves:

 Handling missing values using mean imputation

techniques.
 Normalizing numerical features to ensure uniform
data distribution.
 Removing outliers using Interquartile Range (IQR)
methods to prevent model bias.
 Encoding categorical variables to facilitate model
interpretability.

fig. 1. Proposed System Architecture for Diabetes Prediction

For system usability, the interface is developed using the
Flask app, providing a simple and interactive user experience.
It enables real-time interactions where users can enter there
medical data get the risk prediction.sed in the proposed
Architecture

The proposed system utilizes XGBoost as primary algorithm

due to its efficiency, regularization capabilities, and high
accuracy. SHAP(Shaply Additive Explanations) is used for
feature importance analyze, and ensure model
interpretability. Hyperparameter tuning with Grid Search
CV and Randomized Search CV optimizes performance by
adjusting key parameters. Data preprocessing includes
Mean/Median Insertions for missing values, IQR method for
fail detection, and StandardScaler/MinMaxScaler for feature
scaling. Model evaluation is conducted using “Accuracy,
precision, Recall,F1-score, AUC-ROC Curve, ensuring
reliable and transparent diabetes prediction.
Fig. 2. Data Preprocessing Flowchart
VI. METHODOLOGY
The proposed diabetes prediction model uses Gradient 2. Feature Selection.
boosting algorithm(XGBoost) to enhance prediction
accuracy in diagnosing. The methodology involves several To improve model efficiency and accuracy, feature selection
aspects which include “Data preprocessing, feature techniques such as Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and
selection, model training,evaluation and system intergration. mutual information ranking are applied. This ensures that
only the most relevant features contribute to diabetes
prediction.
1. Data Collection and Preprocessing.
The dataset used for model training consists of patient 3. Model Training and Optimization.
medical records with various health parameters, such as
The XGBoost algorithm is employed due to its ability to  F1-score – to balance precision and recall.
handle imbalanced datasets and optimize predictive  ROC-AUC Score – to analyze the model’s ability
performance. The model is trained using: to differentiate between diabetic and non-diabetic
patients.
 Hyperparameter tuning via GridSearchCV to
optimize parameters such as learning rate, max
4. Deployment and user Interface.
depth, and number of estimators.
 The trained model is deployed as a web-based
 Cross-validation to prevent overfitting and ensure
application where users can input health
generalization.
parameters and receive an instant diabetes risk
 Boosting techniques to iteratively correct errors
assessment. The interface is designed to be user-
from previous iterations, improving prediction
friendly, ensuring accessibility for both healthcare
accuracy.
6. User Interface of the proposed model

The proposed designed with a wed-based user interface (UI)

that allows the users to input their health parameters to
predict risk. The interface is developed using Flask and
Streamlit, which ensures easy and seamless user experience.

Fig. 6. Web-Application Interface

The interface also gives a popup notification whether the

user is safe or not according to the parameters input is
given.

Fig. 3. Model Training and Evaluation Flowchart

4. Evaluation Metrics.
 The model's performance is assessed using:
 Accuracy – to measure the overall correctness of Fig. 6. Web-Application Interface Notification popup
predictions.
 Precision and Recall – to evaluate class-wise
performance, particularly for detecting diabetic
patients.
7. Performance and Evaluation  The AUC-ROC score of 0.92 indicates strong
discriminatory power between classes.
The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using  Precision and Recall Values shows that the model
various classification methods. It mainly focusses on effectively minimize “false positives and false
assessing the prediction capabilities of XGBoost and negatives”
compare with other machine learning models.  Compared to “Logistic Regression and Decision tree,
XGBoost achieves more balanced trade-off between
To measure the effectiveness of the model, the following bias and variance.
metrics are used:

1. Accuracy(Acc)-measures the proportion of correctly

classified cases. 1. Graphical Representation

TP+TN  Confusion Matrix: visualizes correct and

Acc= incorrect predictions.
TP+TN + FP+ FN

TP
P=
TP+ FP

TP
R=
TP+ FN

P∗R
F 1=2∗( )
P+ R

2. Model Performance Comparison Fig. 7. Confusion Matrix of XGBoost Model

The table below compares the performance of XGBoost 2. ROC Curve: Demonstrates the trade-off between
with other commonly used models: sensitivity and specificity.

Table1 PERFORMANCE COMPARISION OF PROPOSED MODEL

WITH EXISTING MODELS
Model Accur Precis Recal F1- AUC-ROC
acy ion l Score

Logistic 78.6% 74.1% 76.3 75.2% 0.82

Regression %
Decision 81.2% 79.0% 78.4 78.7% 0.85
Tree %
Random 85.4% 83.7% 82.9 83.3% 0.89 Fig. 8. Accuracy vs Epoch ROC Curve
Forest %
XGBoost(pr 88.1% 86.5% 85.9 86.2% 0.92
oposed) %

3. Performance Analysis

 XGBoost outperforms traditional models achieving the

highest accuracy of 88.1%.
 in wearable devices or smartphone applications for
continuous, on-the-spot diabetes risk assessment.
• Cross-Population Generalization: Validating the
model on diverse populations to ensure broad
applicability and fairness.

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Fig. 9. Loss vs Epoch ROC Curve
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