Call November 2019

Walter Muñiz
Mathematics

Investigating with correlation if local teams are more likely to lose

when they play away

Diego Alejandro Lobos Melgar

5th Year of High School Section C

June 6, 2019
Introduction
Football is a sport played on a rectangular field with two
goals between two teams of eleven players with a spherical ball. It is the most
practiced in the world and also the most popular among viewers with a
tracking millions of fans, this information is based on the page
web 'conceptodefiniciom.com', this will be in the bibliography. For the same reason that
The fans for this sport are too many, there is the team's stadium.
local and the stadium of the visiting team, these stadiums are responsible for covering a
specific audience so that people can watch the game, being for this reason
and many more reasons that this is my favorite sport besides that
I have personally played it my whole life. Football began in the year 1863.
being England its place of origin, in current English football there is a noticeable
peculiarity which is that the home team has more momentum and
index to victory and for this reason one day the following came to my mind
Question, are home teams more likely to lose when they have a
visit game?
The topic to work on in the next evaluation is statistics, Statistics is
defined as the science that is responsible for collecting, organizing, processing,
analyze and interpret data in order to deduce the characteristics of a
target population, the subtopic that will be worked on in statistics will be correlation
linear Pearson, it is defined as: a measure of the linear relationship between
two quantitative random variables. Unlike covariance, the
Pearson correlation is independent of the measurement scale of the variables.
There are two types of variables, the dependent variable which is the location day,
represented as 'x' and the independent variable in this case will be the visit,
presented as 'y'.
The purpose of this work is to study whether the Pearson linear correlation is a
great tool to analyze if local teams are more likely to lose
when they have an away game or to win when they are at home. My job will be
based on all the teams in the premier category of the national league
Guatemalan, what I want to analyze with them is whether the characteristics such as
the fans, the different temperatures found in the various stadiums
and the environment affects a team in its victory or not, these different variables,
they will have a numerical value, to know their level of covariance between the
such variables.
The technique that will be used to answer this question will be correlation.
Pearson's linear, it consists of a series of steps to reach an answer,
The first step to prepare is the table, in the table the values of 'x' will be placed.
In this case, 'x' is the home team, and the values will also be provided.
In this case, the visiting team also puts it in the picture.
multiplication of 'x' by 'y' and to finish its squares 'x² and
y²

The next step is to create the scatter plot, in which they can come out
various types depending on 'x' and 'y' the types that could come out are positive
high, negative high or high and low. The appropriate thing to do would be to calculate "x" and
after the calculation of 'y', after the calculation of the Pearson linear correlation,
represented as an 'r', but to find that first the calculation is done
"Sxy" to see its covariance level, then we will proceed to make the calculation of
coefficient of determination and then after covering that point, the conclusion will follow
setting the best fit equation.
Another aspect to consider in the next research is the information and
measurements, the data will be from the major league of Guatemala for the 2017 season
In 2018, to obtain the data, the official league website will be used.
Guatemala's national football team will be in the bibliography; this page tells us
It will show the teams to be evaluated if the home team is more likely to lose if
is visiting, we will analyze the following teams which are the most
award winners:
Communications
Antigua
Guastatoya
4. Coban Imperial
5. Xelajú
6. Malacateco
7. Municipal
Siquinala
Iztapa
10. Petapa
11. Sanarate
12. Chiantla Sports
In the following table we will show the away games won and the matches
lost on visit, of said teams.
 Teams Parties cattle of Parties lost from
Visit visit
Communications
Antigua
Guastatoya
Coban Imperial
Xelajú
Malacateco
Municipal
Siquinala
Iztapa
Petapa
Heal
Chiantla Sports Club

Teams Cattle. Lost.

Visit Visit
Municipal 3 6
Communications 2 6
Antigua 4 4

Xelaju 2 7
Guastatoya 2 5

In this part we can already see from the start that the teams playing away
most of the time they lose.
As the next point are mathematical processes. The first point for
to create is the table, where all the information for its analysis will be
relevant.

Livestock Lost from Multiplication Exponentiation Elevation to

visit visit squared x squared y

X Y X×Y X Y
2 6 12 4 36
2 6 12 4 36
4 4 16 16 16
2 7 14 4 49
2 5 10 4 25
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
12 28 64 32 162

Below, the scatter plot in which various types can appear,

as shown in the image
To create the scatter plot, the "x" and "y" columns are needed.

Livestock visit Lost on a visit

X Y
2 6
2 6
4 4
2 7
2 5
As can be seen in the figure, the scatter plot is of a low level.
of correlation, since the points are scattered over a great distance. After
Having made the conversion diagram, the next step is to calculate x.
e y.

X̵= = = 2.4

Y̵= = = 5.6

After having calculated x and y, the next step is to calculate Sx.

For this, the following formulas will be used.

Sx=
to make this formula we have to subtract each value of "x" from the
result given from the sum of "x"

(xi - x) (xi - x) al
square
2-2.4=0.4 0.16
2-2.4=0.4 0.16
1.6 2.56
2-2.4=0.4 0.16
2-2.4=0.4 0.16
TOTAL 3.2
Sx=

=
0.64
Now the calculation of "y"

(y – y) (y – y)al
square

6-5.6=0.4 0.16
6-5.6=0.4 0.16
4-5.6=1.6 2.56
1.4 1.96
5-5.6=0.6 0.36
total 5.2

Sy=

1.04
The next point to discuss is correlation, this is represented with a
¨r¨, its formula is as follows:
r=
But to find the correlation, one must first find 'Sxy'.

= (x)(y)

= (calculation of x)(calculation of y)

= -13.44

= 12.8 (̶ 2.4)(5.6)
0.64
Having this data, the calculation of the correlation will proceed.

r= 0.96
Below is the calculation of the coefficient of determination
R (squared) = (0.96) squared
R= 0.92
To know what range the level of correlation falls into, it can be shown in
the following table:

0 = NOTHING OF RELATION

0.5 A 0.25 = WEAK RELATIONSHIP

0.26 A 0.75 = STRONG RELATIONSHIP

0.75 A 1= MUCH RELATION

As shown in the following table, where the conclusion is demonstrated in

What level is the result of the correlation, in this case the correlation is 0.92.
where it is a very strong or very high relationship.

The next step is to calculate the best fit equation, its formula is the
next:

Y̶Y̵= (X̶ X̵ )

Y̶5.6 = (X̶2.4)
Y̶5.6 = (X̶2.4)
Y̶5.6 = 1.56X̶2.4
Y = 1.56x - 2.4 + 5.6
Y = 1.56x + 3.2

Thanks to this, it is demonstrated that the correlation is very high as it is 0.92, and
all this gave the best fit equation with the help of all the formulas of the
Pearson correlation.
Conclusion

After collecting data, it was possible to verify if the Pearson correlation is

a tool that can help analyze if local teams are more
prone to lose when they have an away game or to win when they are
locales, this following all the steps of the analysis, from making the table to
create the scatter plot. This with the aim of having information
more detailed response which we can see in the procedure, the
which shows the level of correlation of the teams' results.
An exhaustive research on information was also needed.
measurements of the national league of Guatemalan football to achieve this
obtain information which will be applied to the formulas and these will help to obtain the
final answer, which is yes, the teams of the Guatemalan national league are indeed
more likely to lose when playing away than when playing at home.
BIBLIOGRAPHIC CITATIONS

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