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Basic Probability Lecture Notes

The document covers the basic concepts of probability, including its definition, formula, and essential terms such as experiment, outcome, and sample space. It explains different types of probability (theoretical, experimental, subjective) and provides real-life applications in business. Additionally, it includes practice questions to reinforce understanding of the concepts presented.

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32 views2 pages

Basic Probability Lecture Notes

The document covers the basic concepts of probability, including its definition, formula, and essential terms such as experiment, outcome, and sample space. It explains different types of probability (theoretical, experimental, subjective) and provides real-life applications in business. Additionally, it includes practice questions to reinforce understanding of the concepts presented.

Uploaded by

sourabhdhankhar1
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecture Notes: Basic Concepts of Probability

Learning Objectives

- Understand the meaning and formula of probability

- Learn basic terms used in probability

- Apply the formula to real-life problems

- Know different types of probability

What is Probability?

Probability is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. It lies between 0 (impossible) and 1 (certain).

Formula:

P(E) = Number of favorable outcomes / Total number of possible outcomes

Example: Tossing a coin - P(Head) = 1/2

Basic Terms

- Experiment: A trial or action with an uncertain result (e.g., tossing a coin)

- Outcome: Result of an experiment (e.g., Head)

- Sample Space: All possible outcomes (e.g., {H, T})

- Event: One or more outcomes (e.g., Getting a Tail)

- Favorable Outcome: The outcome we are interested in

Simple Examples

1. Tossing a coin: P(Head) = 1/2

2. Rolling a die: P(4) = 1/6, P(Even) = 3/6 = 1/2

3. Drawing a card: P(Red card) = 26/52 = 1/2, P(Ace of Spades) = 1/52

Types of Probability

- Theoretical: Based on logic (e.g., rolling a die)


Lecture Notes: Basic Concepts of Probability

- Experimental: Based on actual experiments or data

- Subjective: Based on opinion or belief

Example: 'I believe there is an 80% chance of rain tomorrow' (Subjective)

Business Applications

- Finance: Risk analysis

- Marketing: Predicting consumer behavior

- Operations: Forecasting demand

- HR: Making hiring decisions based on test probabilities

Practice Questions

1. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads.

2. A die is rolled. Find the probability of getting a number less than 5.

3. In a class of 60, 40 like coffee. Find P(student likes coffee).

Conclusion

Probability helps in making logical decisions in uncertain conditions.

It is a foundation for more advanced topics like distributions and hypothesis testing.

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