Module 2 - Relative Frequency Approach to Probability
Module 2 - Lesson
Relative Frequency Approach to Probability
Let me start with the question on the previous session.
When a coin is tossed, What is the probability of getting a head?
Is it 1/2., i.e.., When you toss a coin twice you have to get a head once, is it right.
Can you do the experiment by yourself and record the results. Just toss the coin twice and
observe the result.
Do you get different answers, did you get both tails?. If so, why.
Here comes the concept of relative approach to probability.
There are many approaches to probability.
Relative Frequency Approach to Probability
Let me start with the question on the previous session.
When a coin is tossed, What is the probability of getting a head?
Is it 1/2., i.e.., When you toss a coin twice you have to get a head once, is it right.
Can you do the experiment by yourself and record the results. Just toss the coin twice and
observe the result.
Do you get different answers, did you get both tails?. If so, why.
Here comes the concept of relative approach to probability.
There are many approaches to probability.
1. Classical Approach
If an experiment has n outcomes, this approach assigns a probability of 1/n to each
outcome where each outcome is assumed to have an equal probability of occurrence. This
method is also called the axiomatic approach.
This is what we discussed in the first lesson.
2. Relative Frequency Approach
The relative frequency is not a theoretical quantity, but an experimental one. Probabilities
are assigned on the basis of experimentation or historical data.
Let A be an event of interest, and assume that we performed the same experiment n times.
Hence, N is the number of times an experiment is performed. Let NA be the number of
times that A occurred. Now, consider the relative frequency NA/N. Then, in this method, we
“attempt” to define P(A) as: P(A) = lim N→∞ NA / N.
Limitation:
1. It is just an attempt because it is not feasible to repeat an experiment an infinite
number of times.
2. Two sets of n experiments will typically result in two different ratios. However, we
expect the discrepancy to converge to 0 for large n.
Hence, for large n, the ratio nA/n may be taken as a reasonable approximation for P(A).
The observed relative frequency is just an approximation to the true probability of an event.
However, if we were able to perform our process more and more times, the relative
frequency will eventually approach the actual probability.
A frequency is the number that tells how many times a data or an event is repeating in an
experiment.
Cumulative frequency is the total of all frequencies of all events that are below a particular
point in a given list of events.
Relative frequency is the absolute frequency normalized by the total number of events.
Relative frequency
The relative frequency of an event is defined as the number of times that the event occurs
during experimental trials, divided by the total number of trials conducted.
Relative Frequency (Rf) = number of successful trials / Total number of trials
Relative frequency approach defines probability as either the observed relative frequency of
an event in a very large number of trials or the proportion of times that an event occurs in
the long run when conditions are stable.
