Emerging Middle East: Interplay of the New Power Centers

Muhammad Shabbir

This chapter highlights

●​ The region has recently experienced major social and political changes (especially
due to the Arab Spring). As a result, it stands at a critical moment—caught between
current uncertainties and future possibilities. The Arab Spring (a wave of protests and
uprisings starting in 2010) has shaken the foundations of politics in many Middle
Eastern countries.
●​ The study uses Power Transition Theory to understand how Rapid political changes
(like the Arab Spring), Calls for democracy and public participation, and​
The rise of Islamist political movements are reshaping the regional balance of power.

●​ Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and Israel-These four countries are selected because they each
play a strategic role in shaping the future of the Middle East.
●​ So, Summary of the chapter is The interplay of powers is about how Iran, Turkey,
Egypt, and Israel are now the main decision-makers and influencers in the Middle
East. They Compete for influence and leadership, Cooperate when it suits their
interests, and Confront each other directly or through proxies. This power dynamic is
new because the old Arab leaders are gone, the U.S. is stepping back, and new
ideologies and actors have risen. Also The changing Middle East poses both
opportunities and serious risks for Pakistan.

What is Power transition theory

Power Transition Theory (PTT) is a theory in international relations that explains conflict is
most likely when a rising power challenges a dominant one, especially if the rising power is
dissatisfied with the status quo. Power Transition Theory was developed by A.F.K. Organski.
It’s a realist theory that helps explain:

●​ Why wars happen between great powers

●​ How global order changes when new powers rise
●​ This theory talks about two types of state: Satisfied and Dissatisfied state
●​ Satisfied state: These countries benefit from the current system (status quo). So, they
support the hegemon and help maintain the system. Also, they receive aid, trade
benefits, and security guarantees from the hegemon.
●​ Dissatisfied state: These countries feel left out or unfairly treated. But usually, they’re
too weak to challenge the hegemon, so they can’t do much.
●​ According to PTT, if a dissatisfied state becomes more powerful (especially through
industrial and military growth), it might try to overthrow the current system through
war or conflict.
●​ Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson said in their book “In Causes of War” that
When a rising power feels strong enough, it might launch a war to speed up the global
power shift so that the benefits of the international system match its new power status.
Example:
●​ Germany challenging Britain before WWI
●​ China potentially challenging U.S. dominance in the future
●​ However, old PTT theory is based on Cold War thinking (bipolarity). Thats why, The
author mentions Ronald Tammen, a scholar of Power Transition Theory, who tries to
update and expand the theory to match today’s global situation.
●​ According to this theory, war between great powers is most likely when three
conditions are met:

a. Power Shifts: The global balance of power is changing—a new country is rising in
strength while the old dominant power is declining (or growing slowly).

b. Approximate Equality of Power: The rising power becomes almost equal in

strength to the dominant power. This creates a dangerous moment—the balance is
unstable.

c. Dissatisfaction with the Status Quo: The rising power is unhappy with the current
global system (who has power, who gets benefits, and what the rules are). It wants to
change the system in its favor.

When these three things happen together, war is more likely because the challenger
feels strong enough to try and reshape the international order.

●​ PTT is different from balance of power theory. Balance of Power theory Focuses
mostly on military strength, and it Believes that countries act to prevent any one
power from becoming too strong by forming alliances. But PTT has a broader
definition of power, not just military. It says power comes from: Population size,
economic productivity, and political capacity.
 ●​ According to Levi and Thompson, the ppt says state power grows like an S-shaped
curve. 3 phases of grow-

1. Slow at first (early stages of industrialization)

2. Rapid growth (middle stage, fast industrialization—lots of power gain)

3. Slows down or levels off (as the country becomes fully developed)

●​ The dominant power is usually already in stage 3, growing slowly. A rising

challenger (like China today or Germany before WWI) is in stage 2, growing fast.
That’s why the challenger can catch up and possibly overtake the dominant power if it
is also dissatisfied with the current global system.

Power Transition Theory in the Middle East- Chatgpt

Unlike in global politics (where the U.S. has been the dominant power), the Middle East
lacks one clear hegemon. Instead, there are multiple competing powers, each trying to
increase their influence.

Power Transition Theory helps explain why the Middle East is so unstable:

In the Middle East:

●​ There is no single dominant hegemon, but multiple regional powers competing to

influence the region.
●​ The U.S. and Israel have historically played dominant roles. Israel is a regional
military and technological power, aligned with the U.S., helping uphold a certain
status quo
●​ Iran, Turkey, and Egypt are Increasing in power (economically, politically, and
militarily) and are often dissatisfied with the existing system and Trying to reshape
regional influence in their favor. Example:

Iran expands influence via proxies (Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Yemen)

Turkey tries to become a Sunni Muslim leader and regional connector​

Egypt, though struggling, still seeks a leadership role in Arab politics
 ●​ The Arab Spring (2010–2011) destabilized regimes (e.g., in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia,
and Syria). This shattered the old status quo, and New ideologies (like political Islam
and militant groups) and non-state actors rose to fill the void.

An Overview of Old Power Centers in the Region​

For many decades, four Arab countries—Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq—were
major players in the Middle East. The passage gives several examples to prove this:

Historical Highlights:

1973 Arab-Israeli War: Syria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia bandwagoned (joined forces) to
confront Israel and recover lands lost in the 1967 war.​

1989 Taif Agreement: Syria and Saudi Arabia helped end the Lebanese civil war through this
political accord.​

1990–91 Gulf War: These Arab states supported the U.S.-led coalition to expel Saddam
Hussein's forces from Kuwait, showing alignment with international (mostly Western) efforts.​

2002 Arab Peace Initiative: Proposed by Saudi Arabia, backed by Egypt and others —
offered peace with Israel in exchange for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories.

Changing Regional Dynamics in the 21st Century

But now, in the 21st century, things are no longer the same:

●​ "The old order is withering away" means the traditional leadership and influence of
these states is declining.
●​ New players (like Iran, Turkey, Israel, and even non-state actors) are reshaping the
balance of power.
●​ Internal instability (civil wars, uprisings, coups, failed states) has weakened Syria,
Iraq, and even Egypt to an extent.

Syria: From Power Player to Battleground

●​ Syria used to be an influential regional power under the Assad regime.

●​ But Assad’s government is too weak to control all of Syria but too strong to collapse
quickly. It lacks legitimacy in the eyes of many Syrians and the international
community. So, Syria is likely to enter a "lost decade" years of Political instability,
Economic destruction and Security breakdown
This creates a power vacuum, making Syria less influential and more of a battleground for
others' strategic goals—a key indicator of regional power shift.

Iraq: A Former Balancer, Now Marginalized

●​ Before 2003, Iraq (under Saddam Hussein and the Sunni-dominated Ba’ath Party) had
The largest Arab army and Enough strength to balance Shi’a Iran
●​ But the U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003) Destroyed that military, Removed the secular
regime, and Led to internal conflict and sectarian violence
●​ A strong regional actor (Iraq) was removed from the power balance.
●​ A new, Shi’a-led government in Baghdad now struggles for legitimacy, unity, and
regional influence.
●​ Iraq is now too internally weak to act as a major power, creating space for other actors
(e.g., Iran, Turkey, Gulf states).

Saudi Arabia: Stability Under Pressure

●​ Saudi Arabia still holds regional power due to oil wealth and strategic partnerships
(especially with the U.S.).
●​ But it faces internal challenges, such as Reforming its monarchy, Responding to
changing political expectations, especially from a younger population and
international critics, and Managing its Vision 2030 reforms while preserving its
political stability.
●​ If Saudi Arabia fails to adapt, it may lose influence or become internally unstable.​

●​ That would reshape the power map of the Middle East, weakening another traditional
pillar of the regional order.

So, The Middle East is undergoing a power transition—no longer dominated by the old Arab
heavyweights. Instead, non-Arab or ideologically different states (like Iran and Turkey) and
non-state actors (like Hezbollah, the Houthis, or even ISIS before) are stepping into power
vacuums. The Arab Spring (from 2010 onward) accelerated this transformation, causing
regime changes, civil wars, and new ideological forces to rise.

Emergence of New Power Centers in Middle East: The Instigating Elements

The Middle East has undergone massive transformation in recent decades.​
This passage identifies six key forces that have:

●​ Weakened old powers (like Syria, Iraq, and U.S. influence),

●​ Empowered new players (like Iran, Turkey, non-state actors),
●​ And created a complex power landscape—perfect for analyzing through Power
Transition Theory.

Six drivers of changes are-

1.​ 9/11 and U.S. Invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq

2.​ Rise of Non-State Actors (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas, Al-Qaeda)
3.​ Arab Spring and Fall of Authoritarian Regimes
4.​ Rise of Islamists vs. Arab Nationalists
5.​ Declining U.S. and Western Influence
6.​ Weakened Syria & Iraq → Vacuum Filled by Iran & Turkey

1. 9/11 and U.S. Invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq:

●​ After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. launched wars in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003).
●​ The U.S. intended to fight terrorism and reshape the region but instead It overthrew
the Taliban and Saddam, removing two major forces.
●​ It unintentionally strengthened Iran, which became more influential in the region once
Iraq’s Sunni-led regime was removed.
●​ By removing old regimes, the U.S. disrupted the regional balance, creating space for
new challengers (like Iran) to rise.

2. Rise of Non-State Actors (e.g., Hezbollah, Hamas, Al-Qaeda)

●​ These groups gained popularity and legitimacy due to Failures of states (especially in
defending against Israel or resolving conflicts) and Social alienation and lack of
representation
●​ Example: Hezbollah fought Israel more effectively than Arab armies.
●​ These actors now compete with states for influence and power.
●​ Traditional state power is being challenged by non-state actors, adding new
complexity to regional power dynamics.
3. Arab Spring and Fall of Authoritarian Regimes

●​ 2011 protests led to collapse or weakening of old regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya,
Yemen, Syria
●​ People demanded democracy, justice, and economic reform. But instead of stability,
many countries fell into chaos or civil war.
●​ The collapse of central authority in many countries created power vacuums and
disrupted the old regional order.

4. Rise of Islamists vs. Arab Nationalists

●​ The Arab Spring didn't just shake governments—it reshaped ideologies.

●​ Islamic political movements (like the Muslim Brotherhood) gained strength over
secular, nationalist ideologies.
●​ People now seem more influenced by Islamic identity than pan-Arab identity.

5. Declining U.S. and Western Influence

●​ The U.S. is no longer seen as the stabilizing hegemon it once was.

●​ Two main reasons:​
The Iraq War damaged its legitimacy and military standing.​
The Arab Spring brought in new actors whom the U.S. doesn't know or control.
●​ The U.S. now has less ability to shape events or pick allies.
●​ As the hegemon weakens, new challengers (like Iran, Turkey, and Russia) step in to
fill the gap—a classic feature of transition.

6. Weakened Syria & Iraq → Vacuum Filled by Iran & Turkey

●​ Internal wars and external interventions destroyed the state power of Syria and Iraq.
This created a regional vacuum.
●​ Iran and Turkey, being more stable and economically capable, stepped in to expand
their regional influence.
●​ Egypt, while shaken, remains a symbolic Arab leader.
●​ This is a textbook case of rising regional powers (Iran, Turkey) filling the void left by
declining states (Syria, Iraq).
These six forces represent a perfect storm of declining hegemonic influence, collapsing state
power, rising challengers, and ideological transformation—exactly the conditions under
which power transitions and conflicts become more likely.

Foreign policy of individual country from slide

Iran;

Iran has emerged as a regional power due to decades of progress in social, economic,
diplomatic, and military fields. It holds the 2nd largest gas and 3rd largest oil reserves
globally. Despite sanctions and reduced oil exports, Iran ranked 18th in the world by
GDP (PPP) in 2012. Militarily, it is a strong regional force. However, over the past
decade, its nuclear program has been marked by secrecy, ambiguity, and shifting
claims—described as a "game of hide-and-seek."

Key pillars of Iran’s foreign policy strategy, especially since the 1979 Islamic
Revolution, are mentioned below-

1. Preserve the Islamic Republic: Iran treats internal protests as a serious danger to
the regime. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s leadership (especially the Supreme
Leader and the IRGC) believes that if public unrest grows, it could destabilize or
overthrow the system. It frequently labels domestic protests as foreign-instigated
conspiracies (often blaming the U.S., Israel, or “Zionists”), allowing it to justify harsh
crackdowns.

Example: Mahsa Amini protest 2022

Mahsa Amini died in custody of Iran's morality police, triggering massive protests.
Instead of seeing this as public anger over women’s rights and state repression, the
government blamed “foreign-backed sedition” and claimed protesters were
manipulated by the U.S., Israel, and exiled opposition groups.​
As a result, the regime used harsh force, killing hundreds and arresting thousands.
2. Export Revolutionary Ideology:

●​ Iran wants to spread its political-religious ideology—a blend of Shi’a Islam and
anti-Western, anti-imperialist revolution—throughout the region.
●​ This isn't just religious. It's a strategic tool to build loyal allies, create influence, and
challenge rivals (like Saudi Arabia, which promotes Sunni Islam and often opposes
Iran).
●​ Iran sees itself as the “protector of the oppressed” and the leader of the global Shi’a
Muslim community. By empowering Shi’a or pro-Iranian groups in other countries,
Iran creates proxy allies that serve its interests, extend its influence, and contain
threats (like U.S. troops or Sunni governments).

Example: Hezbollah (Lebanon): A direct product of Iran’s ideological export. It acts as a

political-military arm aligned with Tehran.​
Bahrain: Iran supports Shi’a opposition movements against the Sunni monarchy.​
Iraq, Syria, Yemen: Iran sponsors Shi’a militias and political groups to expand its
revolutionary ideals and regional presence.

3. Resist Western (Especially U.S.) Pressure

●​ Iran wants to resist economic and military pressure, particularly from the United
States and its allies, who aim to limit Iran’s regional influence, military capabilities
(especially nuclear), and access to global markets.
●​ Iran views the U.S. as an imperialist power trying to undermine its sovereignty and
topple its regime. By refusing to give in to pressure, Iran Strengthens its legitimacy at
home and Bolsters its reputation among some regional actors and anti-Western groups
as a symbol of resistance.
●​ That's why Iran develops ways to bypass sanctions (e.g., trade with China or using
crypto and smuggling networks).

Example: Post-JCPOA Scenario

1. In 2015, Iran agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), limiting its
nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. In 2018, President Trump withdrew the
U.S. from the deal and reimposed crippling economic sanctions. So Iran Refused to return to
negotiations unless the U.S. first lifted sanctions and Sent a message: “We won’t surrender
under pressure; if you pressure us, we’ll pressure you back.”

2. Iran seeks to leverage partnerships within frameworks like the 10-country BRICS
organization initiated by Russia and the China-dominated Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) to resist US pressure, and a free trade agreement with Russia is expected
to boost bilateral trade.

4. Break Regional Isolation: Iran Form alliances and avoid being surrounded by hostile
states (especially Sunni Arab powers or U.S. allies). That's why Iran uses diplomacy, military
ties, and economic deals to forge strategic partnerships and reduce its isolation. Example:

●​ Strong ties with Syria (Assad regime), Iraq (Shi’a-led government), and Lebanon
(through Hezbollah).
●​ 2023: Restored diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia via Chinese mediation—a major
shift showing Iran’s readiness to engage in pragmatic diplomacy when needed.

5. Oil Diplomacy (OPEC+): Iran is a key member of OPEC+, working with countries like
Russia to influence global oil prices. It also sells oil quietly (e.g., to China) despite sanctions,
in exchange for political or economic cooperation. Example:

●​ Iran often cuts or increases oil output in sync with Russia and others to manipulate
prices.
●​ It sells discounted oil to China, receiving investments and geopolitical support in
return.

6. Proxy Networks: Iran uses armed groups in other countries—called proxies—to expand
its power, fight its enemies, and protect its interests without directly going to war itself. This
strategy helps Iran to Avoid blame or retaliation since it's not Iran officially doing the
fighting. Examples:

●​ Hezbollah (Lebanon): Wields military and political power, threatens Israel, and
spreads Iran’s ideology.
●​ Houthis (Yemen): Fight Saudi-backed forces, disrupt Red Sea trade — useful for
pressuring Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
7. Strategic Use of Militias: Use non-state actors to fight wars, exert control, or pressure
enemies. Militias let Iran shape conflicts (e.g., Syria, Iraq) without deploying its own
military. Iran provides arms, training, and intelligence but denies official involvement. Ex

Syria: Iranian-backed militias secure Assad’s rule and defend Iran’s strategic interests.

8. Asymmetric Warfare: Asymmetric warfare means using unconventional or indirect

methods to fight a much stronger, better-equipped enemy—like the United States, Israel, or
Saudi Arabia. Since Iran cannot match these countries in terms of traditional military power
(e.g., air force, navy, tech), it uses creative, low-cost, high-impact tactics. Ex-

Cyberattacks: Iran has built a sophisticated cyber capability in response to U.S.-Israeli cyber
operations like Stuxnet (which damaged Iran’s nuclear program in 2010).

Strait of Hormuz: Iran’s IRGC Navy uses small, fast speedboats to swarm U.S. or allied
warships, launch rockets, or drop mines.

9. Nuclear Brinkmanship: Iran intentionally keeps its nuclear program in a "gray zone."
Gray zone means acting between peace and war—doing just enough to gain power, but not
enough to start a war. By staying in the gray zone Iran Enriches uranium beyond agreed
limits (especially after the U.S. exited the JCPOA in 2018), Builds advanced centrifuges but
does not build or test a nuclear bomb. This creates a situation where The West fears Iran is
close to a bomb and But can’t justify a military strike or full sanctions because Iran hasn't
officially broken the rules. Example:

Post-2018: Iran gradually increased enrichment levels (above 60%) while keeping saying,
“We are not making a nuclear weapon; this is for peaceful purposes.”

So, Iran’s fp is Blend of Ideology and Pragmatism. It defends its revolutionary identity but
adapts when necessary—for example, negotiating with enemies, cooperating with China and
Russia, or restoring ties with Arab rivals.

Israel: Israel has the strongest military in the middle east region and is the only nuclear power
west of the Nile River. It is a key ally for the United States and serves Western geopolitical
interests in the Middle East. Scholar Fouad Ajami argues that Israel acts as a barrier
against the idea of a unified Arab-Muslim empire—what he calls the “Dream Palace of the
Arabs.” The Arab Spring weakened Israel’s strategic position. It:​
-Lost its only friendly regime in the region (Mubarak in Egypt).​
-Now cannot fully rely on Jordan's King Abdullah for support either.​
FP of Israel

1. National security and survival:

●​ Israel is a small country, both geographically and demographically. It is surrounded

by hostile or unstable states and non-state actors like ​
Hezbollah (Lebanon)—backed by Iran—and Hamas (Gaza Strip) frequently launch
rockets, and Iran openly threatens Israel’s existence.
●​ So, Israel’s top priority is ensuring its survival in a region where many neighbors and
militant groups have historically opposed its existence. This has shaped Israel’s
military-first mindset and proactive defense strategy.

Example: a. Iron Dome system: A missile defense system that intercepts rockets and artillery
fired into Israel, mainly from Gaza (Hamas) or Lebanon (Hezbollah).

b. Airstrike in Syria: Israel regularly carries out airstrikes in Syria to Destroy Iranian weapons
shipments to Hezbollah.

2. Contain Iran: Iran openly calls for Israel’s destruction. It supports anti-Israel proxy
groups like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), and Shi’a militias (Iraq and Syria). That's
why the main foreign policy goal of Israel is to Prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power
and from expanding its influence across the Middle East.

Examples: Nuclear Concerns: Israel strongly opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and
supported U.S. withdrawal in 2018.

Covert Operations: Alleged Mossad operations, such as Assassination of Iranian nuclear

scientists (e.g., Mohsen Fakhrizadeh).

Airstrikes in Syria: Regular airstrikes on Iranian weapons convoys and infrastructure in

Syria.

3. Normalize Relations with Arab States:

 ●​ For decades, most Arab countries refused to recognize Israel as a legitimate state
because of The Palestinian issue and Arab solidarity with Palestinians. And wars
fought between Israel and Arab states (1948, 1967, 1973, etc.)
●​ So, Israel had very few diplomatic relations in the region — only with Egypt and
Jordan before 2020.
●​ In 2020, with U.S. mediation, Israel signed normalization agreements with several
Arab states, such as the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan.
●​ Because of these agreements, Israel started formal diplomatic ties with Middle
Eastern countries. and break the long-standing taboo of Arab-Israel diplomacy, also
Reduce regional isolation, and build alliances against Iran and extremism.

4. Maintain US support: Another fp goal of Israel is to protect and strengthen the special
relationship between Israel and the United States—which is essential for Israel’s military
strength, international protection, and political influence.​
Example: Military Aid: The U.S. gives over $3.8 billion per year in military support. This
helps Israel buy advanced American weapons, like F-35 fighter jets and missile defense
systems (e.g., Iron Dome).

UN Protection: At the UN Security Council, the U.S. often vetoes resolutions critical of
Israel—especially regarding Military actions in Gaza or the West Bank.
5. Military Superiority: To make sure that Israel always has more advanced and effective
weapons, technology, and intelligence than any of its neighboring enemies or regional
threats—even if those countries have more soldiers or money.
Example: F-35 Fighter Jets Israel was the first country outside the U.S. to receive the F-35,
the world’s most advanced stealth fighter. These jets give Israel a major advantage in:​
Precision strikes (e.g., in Syria or Iran) and Air superiority over enemy forces.
6. Intelligence operations:
●​ Israel is surrounded by hostile actors like Iran, Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Hamas (in
Gaza), and other extremist groups.
●​ These groups often call for Israel’s destruction or launch rockets and plan attacks.
●​ So To survive and stay ahead, Israel relies on intelligence agencies to uncover threats
early, plan responses, and stop enemies before they strike.
●​ Some intelligence agencies of Israel are
 ●​ Mossad—Israel’s foreign intelligence agency (like the CIA in the U.S.). Focuses on
overseas spying, sabotage, and assassinations.
●​ Shin Bet (Shabak) – Focuses on internal security and counter-terrorism within Israel
and Palestinian territories.
●​ Aman— Military intelligence (works with the army).
Example: Assassinations of Iranian Nuclear Scientists
Mossad is suspected of killing key Iranian scientists, such as Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (2020),
who led Iran's nuclear weapons program.​
These covert killings are meant to slow down Iran’s nuclear progress without causing a
full-scale war.
7. Cyber capabilities:
●​ Israel is surrounded by hostile groups (like Hamas, Hezbollah) and rival countries
(like Iran). These actors often launch rockets and terror attacks.
●​ That’s why Israel uses cyber tools instead of traditional warfare. Cyberpowerallows
Israel to Defend itself against hackers and cyberattacks and Spy on enemies secretly
Example: Stuxnet Virus (2009–2010)
●​ Israel and the U.S. secretly developed a powerful virus called Stuxnet, which Infected
Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, silently made their machines malfunction, and
destroyed about 1,000 uranium centrifuges.
●​ This virus delayed Iran’s nuclear bomb development—without using missiles or
soldiers.
●​ Also This was the world’s first cyberweapon to cause real-world physical damage.
​

7. Diplomatic normalization (Abraham Accord):

●​ Israel is trying to overcome its historical isolation in the Middle East and African,
and Asian nations and build alliances against common threats like Iran and terrorism.
●​ Even if, under U.S. mediation, Israel normalized relations with four
Arab/Muslim-majority countries through the Abraham Accords in 2020 still Israel is
still actively working to expand relations with Saudi Arabia and African and Asian
Countries.
●​ Israel also invests in “soft power” diplomacy to Improve its global image, especially
in Western democracies (e.g., U.S., Europe)
Example
Chad (Africa): Renewed diplomatic ties in 2019; opened embassies.
Azerbaijan (Asia): A Shia-Muslim country that buys Israeli weapons and cooperates on
intelligence (especially against Iran).
India: Strong strategic, defense, and tech ties; India buys Israeli arms and agricultural tech.

What is Abraham Accord

●​ For decades, most Arab countries refused to recognize Israel as a legitimate state
because of The Palestinian issue (occupation of Palestinian land) and Arab solidarity
with Palestinians.
●​ And wars fought between Israel and Arab states (1948, 1967, 1973, etc.)​
So, Israel had very few diplomatic relations in the region—only with Egypt and
Jordan before 2020.
●​ On September 15, 2020, at the White House, under U.S. mediation, Israel signed
normalization agreements with several Arab states:
1.​ United Arab Emirates (UAE)
2.​ Bahrain
3.​ Morocco
4.​ Sudan

These agreements are called the Abraham Accords, a set of peace and normalization
agreements between Israel and several Arab/Muslim-majority countries.

●​ The name "Abraham" was chosen because he is a common religious figure in

Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. This symbolizes interfaith unity and shared heritage
among Jews, Christians, and Muslims.
●​ the Abraham Accords are also called normalization agreement because Israel was able
to start formal diplomatic ties (embassies, direct flights, and open trade) with those 4
countries through this agreement

Why Did These Arab States Normalize Ties?

1. Common Enemy Iran: These Arab states (especially Gulf ones like the UAE and Bahrain)
fear Iran’s military power, nuclear ambitions, and proxy groups. Like Israel, they see Iran as a
destabilizing threat.
2. U.S. Pressure and Incentives: The U.S. offered political and economic rewards—such as
weapons deals, aid, or recognition (e.g., the U.S. recognized Morocco’s claim to Western
Sahara in return).

3. Economic Benefits: Partnering with Israel meant access to high-tech industries, innovation,
cyber technology, and medical research.

4. Fatigue with the Palestinian Issue: Some Arab leaders were tired of waiting for a
Palestinian solution. They prioritized national interests over the old Arab League policy of
“no peace with Israel until Palestine is free.”

Examples of What Normalization Achieved

Trade and Technology Cooperation: Israel and the UAE signed billions of dollars in trade
agreements. Tech, agriculture, tourism, and healthcare sectors are booming

Security and Intelligence Sharing: Arab Gulf states now quietly work with Israel to monitor
threats from Iran, Yemen (Houthis), and extremist groups

Strategic Alliance: These ties form an informal bloc of countries that oppose Iran’s
expansion, making it harder for Tehran to dominate the region

What About the Palestinians?

The Abraham Accords were criticized by Palestinians, who felt betrayed, because

○​ Arab countries had promised not to normalize with Israel until Palestine was
independent.
○​ These deals happened without progress on a two-state solution.

Saudi Arab

1. Regime security: Protect the ruling House of Saud and prevent threats to the monarchy by:
Suppressing domestic dissent (e.g., arrest of activists, tight control over media).​
Controlling religious and political opposition.​
Monitoring external threats like terrorism and revolutions (e.g., the Arab Spring).

Example: In 2011, during the Arab Spring, Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain (through the
Gulf Cooperation Council) to help suppress protests and protect Bahrain’s monarchy—which
could have encouraged unrest in Saudi Arabia too.

2. Leadership in the Islamic World: Be the undisputed leader of the Muslim

world—especially the Sunni world by:

Controlling Islam’s holiest sites (Mecca & Medina).​

Funding mosques, madrasas, and religious outreach across the globe.​
Hosting the annual Hajj pilgrimage, drawing millions of Muslims.

Example: Through Wahhabi religious outreach, Saudi Arabia has built influence in countries
like Pakistan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.​
3. Countering Iran’s Influence: Prevent Iran (a Shia power) from expanding its regional
and religious influence by:

Supporting rival Sunni governments and groups.​

Opposing Iran in proxy conflicts and diplomacy.

Examples: Yemen War: Saudi Arabia leads a coalition fighting Iran-backed Houthis.​
Lebanon: Tries to weaken Hezbollah, Iran’s ally.

4. Economic Diversification—Vision 2030: The goal is to Reduce dependence on oil and

build a modern, diversified economy.

Key Points: Led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).​

Invest in sectors like tourism, tech, entertainment, and infrastructure.

Examples:

●​ NEOM Project: A $500 billion futuristic smart city.

●​ Opening up tourism: E-visas, allowing concerts, sports, cinema (once banned).
●​ Selling shares of Saudi Aramco (world’s largest oil company) to raise funds.
5. Oil Diplomacy (OPEC+):

●​ Use oil production and pricing as a tool of power.

●​ Leading member of OPEC+, which controls oil supply globally.
●​ Coordinates with Russia and others to stabilize or manipulate oil markets.

Examples:

●​ 2020 COVID oil crash: Saudi Arabia initially clashed with Russia, then reached a deal
to cut production and stabilize prices.
●​ Uses oil leverage to gain favor with partners like China, India, and Europe.

6. Strategic Alliances (Especially with the U.S.): Maintain a strong security partnership
with the U.S. and other Western powers because:

-Saudi Arabia buys advanced U.S. weapons.​

-U.S. provides military protection and political backing.

Examples:

●​ Gulf War (1991): U.S. troops defended Saudi Arabia from Saddam Hussein.
●​ $110 billion U.S.-Saudi arms deal announced under Trump (2017).
●​ U.S. support for Saudi intervention in Yemen (although reduced under Biden).

7. Proxy Involvement (e.g., Yemen): Fight regional battles indirectly by supporting allies or
militias—instead of direct war.

Example:

●​ In Yemen, Saudi Arabia fights against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

●​ It backs the Yemeni government and conducts airstrikes, aiming to keep Yemen in the
Sunni Arab sphere.

8. Soft Power via Islamic Leadership: Expand influence by projecting Saudi Arabia as the
spiritual and religious center of Islam.

Funding Islamic charities, schools, and religious literature globally.​

Hosting international Islamic conferences.​
Providing scholarships for Islamic studies.​
Example: Saudi-funded religious institutions exist across Africa, Asia, and Europe,
promoting Saudi Arabia’s religious worldview and goodwill.

Turkey

The Turkish government, seen as moderately Islamic, has been in power for over 10 years.
Turkey’s location, strong economy, and stable politics have made it more confident in dealing
with the U.S. and the West. The economy has been booming, growing at 9–10%, with an
average of 7% over 10 years. Before the Arab Spring, Turkey was seen as a regional winner.
Because of the U.S. failure in Iraq and lack of Arab leadership on Palestine, a vacuum was
created in the Middle East. Turkey stepped in to fill that gap, using its influence. Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu called this approach “zero problems with neighbors”—aiming for
good relations with all surrounding countries.

FP

1. Neo-Ottoman Leadership: Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants to

revive political, economic, cultural, and religious influence over regions that were once part
of the Ottoman Empire—mainly the Middle East, Balkans, North Africa, and the Caucasus.
This is often called "Neo-Ottomanism," a soft (and sometimes hard) power strategy to regain
prestige and leadership among Muslim-majority countries. Example:

Somalia: Strategic Outreach in East Africa

Built Turkey’s largest overseas military base in Somalia.​

Provided humanitarian aid and built hospitals, roads, and schools.​
Promotes Turkish language and culture through scholarships and religious ties

2. Strategic autonomy: Reduce dependence on the West and pursue independent foreign
policy. Example:

-Bought the Russian S-400 missile system despite being a NATO member—caused tension
with the U.S.​
-Refused to fully join Western sanctions on Russia after the Ukraine invasion.
-Pursues "multi-vector diplomacy": works with NATO, Russia, China, and Iran depending on
its interests.

3. Balance between East and West: Maintain ties with both Western allies (NATO, EU) and
Eastern powers (Russia, China, Iran) to maximize leverage. Examples:​
-Turkey helped mediate the Ukraine grain export deal between Russia and Ukraine.​
-Member of NATO, but hosts joint energy projects with Russia (TurkStream pipeline).​
-EU candidate, but also joins China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.

4. Counter Kurdish Nationalism: Prevent the rise of an independent Kurdish state,

especially near Turkey's borders. Turkey fears Kurdish separatism (linked to the PKK, a
Kurdish militant group considered terrorist by Turkey, the U.S., and the EU). Examples:​
-military operations in northern Syria (e.g., Operation Peace Spring) targeting Kurdish YPG
forces (seen as PKK-linked).​
-Frequent airstrikes in northern Iraq against PKK hideouts.

5. Military Interventions: Use force to protect Turkish interests and expand influence
abroad. Examples:

●​ Syria: Deployed troops and backed Syrian rebel groups to counter Kurds and
Assad.
●​ Libya: Sent troops and drones to support the UN-recognized government in
Tripoli.
●​ Nagorno-Karabakh (2020): Supported Azerbaijan with drones and advisors
in the war against Armenia.

6. Drones and arms export: Boost the defense industry and project power through weapons
sales.Examples:​
Bayraktar TB2 drones used in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan vs Armenia)​
and Ukraine (vs Russia)

7. Energy geopolitics: Become an energy hub and secure access to regional gas reserves.
Examples:​
TurkStream pipeline brings Russian gas through Turkey to Europe.​
Disputes with Greece & Cyprus over gas drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Cooperation with Azerbaijan on the TANAP pipeline (transports Caspian gas to Europe).​

Which factors shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics today (From Slide)

1. Fragmentation of the Arab World:

●​ Arab states are no longer unified in their foreign policy or regional goals. There is no
single "Arab voice" on key issues like Palestine, Iran, or relations with the West.
●​ Countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE often pursue separate
agendas.
●​ The Arab League is weakened and often fails to act collectively.
●​ This disunity allows non-Arab powers (e.g., Iran, Turkey, and Israel) to increase their
influence.

2. Proxy Conflicts: Regional and global powers use local conflicts in countries like Yemen,
Syria, Libya, and Iraq to compete for power and push their agendas. Example:

Yemen: Saudi Arabia and Iran back opposing sides.​

Syria: A battlefield for the U.S., Russia, Iran, Turkey, and others.​
Libya: UAE and Egypt vs. Turkey and Qatar.​
Iraq: U.S. and Iran compete for influence.

Instead of fighting directly, powers use proxy groups or local governments, prolonging
conflicts and making peace harder to achieve.

3. Normalization of Ties with Israel (Abraham Accords): Several Arab countries have
started official relations with Israel, ending decades of hostility without waiting for a solution
to the Palestinian issue.

It Shows a shift in Arab priorities from Palestine to economic and security cooperation,
especially against Iran, and Weakens the Arab consensus on supporting Palestinian statehood
first.

4. Rise of Non-Arab Powers: Iran, Turkey, and Israel—all non-Arab states—are now the
most strategically active players in the region. Example:
 ●​ Iran: Expands influence through proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
●​ Turkey: Asserts neo-Ottoman identity through military, economic, and cultural
engagement in Muslim countries.
●​ Israel: Maintains military superiority, conducts regional airstrikes, and builds new
alliances.

Non-Arab states shape the regional order more than many Arab states.

5. Multipolar Diplomacy: Middle Eastern states no longer rely solely on the U.S. but
balance relations with multiple global powers—like Russia, China, and the EU.
Examples:

●​ Saudi Arabia sells oil to China and hosts Chinese infrastructure projects.
●​ Iran and Syria rely on Russia for military and political backing.
●​ Israel and the UAE engage closely with both Washington and Moscow.

6. Economic Diplomacy: Rich Gulf states (especially UAE and Saudi Arabia) use their oil
wealth and investments to influence countries and secure partnerships. Example

●​ The UAE invests in African ports, startups, and real estate globally.
●​ Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 includes global partnerships in tech, tourism, and
energy.

So, These countries are shifting from relying on oil exports to economic influence.

Author’s point of view

●​ According to the author Muhammad Shabbir, "A new strategic power balance is
emerging in the Middle East."
●​ In international politics, a strategic power balance refers to which countries have the
most influence over regional security, politics, alliances, and conflicts. A new balance
is emerging when old powers lose strength and new powers rise to shape the rules,
events, and relationships in the region.
●​ That’s why the author said that The old dominant Arab regimes (like Syria, Iraq, and
Saudi Arabia) are declining, while new power centers (Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and
 Israel) are rising in influence. These new players are now redefining who holds
power, sets agendas, and influences events in the region.
●​ Decline of Old Powers:

Syria: Once a major player (e.g., Taif Agreement 1989), it's now a civil war zone and a
battleground for foreign influence. Example: Iran and Hezbollah support Assad, while the
West and Turkey support the opposition.

Iraq: The 2003 U.S. invasion toppled Saddam Hussein and shattered Iraq’s army. It created a
weak Shi’a-led state and eliminated Iraq as a Sunni counterweight to Iran.

Saudi Arabia: Still wealthy, but its political model (monarchy) is outdated, and its regional
influence is shrinking, especially among rising Islamic democracies like Turkey.

●​ Rise of New Powers:

-Iran: Benefited indirectly from the U.S. toppling of Saddam. It expanded its influence in
Iraq, Lebanon (via Hezbollah), Syria, and Gaza. It also uses its nuclear program as a
bargaining tool. Example: Iran’s regional reach made Israel and Gulf monarchies feel
threatened. Also, Iran supports the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and militias
in Iraq.​
-Turkey: With economic growth, democratic Islamism (AKP rule), and its “zero problems
with neighbors” policy, Turkey emerged as a soft power and mediator.​
Example: It filled the leadership vacuum in the Palestinian issue when Arab regimes
remained silent. Also adopted a “zero problems with neighbors” policy (before Syria crisis).

-Egypt: Despite turmoil, its geopolitical location, population, and Suez Canal control give it
influence.​
Example: Under Morsi, Egypt tried to balance ties with Iran, the U.S., Israel, and the Gulf
States—showing its re-entry into regional power politics.

-Israel: Militarily unmatched in the region, the only nuclear state, and a key U.S. ally, but
diplomatically isolated post-Arab Spring.​
Example: Maintains military superiority, conducts regional airstrikes, and builds new
alliances.
 ●​ Author addresses the interplays of power, which means Iran, Turkey, Egypt, and
Israel—these 4 countries compete, cooperate, or confront each other, influencing
regional decisions and shaping the Middle East’s future. These countries are
considered regional power centers due to their Strategic location, Military
capabilities, Religious and ideological influence, Economic strength, and Historical
legacies.
●​ Examples of Interplay

Iran vs. Israel:

●​ Rivalry over nuclear weapons and influence in Lebanon and Syria.

●​ Iran supports groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which Israel considers threats.
●​ Israel has conducted airstrikes in Syria to prevent Iran from transferring weapons to
Hezbollah.
●​ Cyber warfare, like the Stuxnet virus, was used to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program.

Turkey and Egypt

●​ Before 2013, Turkey supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Both countries
hoped to create a Sunni Islamic democratic alliance in the region.
●​ After Egypt’s 2013 coup, Turkey opposed Egypt’s new military regime. Relations
soured.​
Now: They are slowly rebuilding ties but still have strategic differences, especially
over Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean.

Iran and Turkey

●​ Cooperate on trade and both oppose Kurdish separatism.

●​ But disagree on Syria:​
-Iran supports Assad (Shia ally).​
-Turkey supports Sunni opposition groups.

Despite differences, both work together with Russia in the Astana peace process to manage
the Syrian conflict.

Egypt and Israel

 ●​ Even under Islamist president Mohamed Morsi, Egypt maintained diplomatic ties
with Israel.
●​ Morsi pressured Israel to recognize Palestinian statehood and end the siege of Gaza.
●​ At the same time, Egypt’s military coordinated with Israel to fight jihadist groups in
the Sinai Peninsula.

Why the Middle East Is Important for Pakistan

The Middle East plays a vital role in Pakistan’s foreign, religious, and economic policies for
several reasons:

Religious and Cultural Bonds: Most Middle Eastern countries are Muslim-majority, like
Pakistan. This builds a natural sense of unity.

Political and Diplomatic Ties: Pakistan has long-standing relations with key Middle Eastern
powers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Egypt.

Economic Dependence: Millions of Pakistanis work in the Middle East, and billions of
dollars in remittances flow from this region to Pakistan every year.​
That’s why the Middle East is often referred to as “Pakistan’s strategic depth”—a region
that supports Pakistan in times of crisis, especially during tensions with India.

Five Key Implications of Middle East Politics for Pakistan

1. Palestine Conflict and Kashmir Parallel: Israel continues to occupy Palestine, and this
conflict remains unresolved. India and Israel have developed a strong military and diplomatic
partnership, especially in areas like intelligence, arms trade, and counter-terrorism. For
Pakistan, which opposes Indian control over Kashmir, this Israel-India alliance is concerning.
Many in Pakistan see Palestine and Kashmir as similar struggles—people living under
occupation. So, the Palestinian issue directly affects Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir and its
efforts to gain global support for Kashmiris.
2. Sectarian Violence in Iraq and Syria May Spill Over: After the U.S. invaded Iraq, the
country fell into sectarian conflict (mainly between Sunni and Shi’a Muslims). Similarly,
foreign involvement in Syria has fueled sectarian divisions there as well. Pakistan, with its
own Sunni-Shi’a tensions, fears that violence and extremism from Iraq and Syria may spread
across its borders. This could worsen domestic terrorism and sectarian conflict within
Pakistan.​
3. Impact of U.S. Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan: U.S. interventions in Iraq and
Afghanistan destabilized those regions—and Pakistan paid a heavy price.​
Human cost: Thousands of Pakistanis, including soldiers and civilians, died in terror attacks
and counter-terrorism operations.​
Economic cost: Billions of dollars in damage due to loss of trade, investment, and
security-related expenses.​
Pakistan became a frontline state in the War on Terror, suffering both internally and
externally, even while cooperating with the U.S.

4. Iran’s Nuclear Issue and Regional Tensions: Iran’s nuclear program has led to serious
tensions with the U.S., Israel, and Gulf countries (like Saudi Arabia and UAE). If this tension
turns into a military conflict, it will affect Pakistan directly because Iran is a neighbor.​
More importantly, this could cause a rise in sectarian tensions inside Pakistan, especially
between Sunni and Shi’a groups.

5. Pakistani Workers in the Middle East: Over 3 million Pakistanis live and work in
Middle Eastern countries (like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Oman). These workers send
money (remittances) back home, which supports Pakistan’s economy. If the Middle East
becomes unstable (due to wars or political crises), these jobs could be lost, which would harm
Pakistan’s economic stability and increase unemployment.

Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Dilemma

Tensions Between Iran and Gulf States/USA: Iran is under pressure from the U.S., Saudi
Arabia, and other Gulf states due to Its nuclear program and Its involvement in Syria and
Lebanon. These tensions have led to Western sanctions on Iran, which hurt regional trade
and cooperation.
Iran–Pakistan Gas Pipeline at Risk: Iran and Pakistan planned a major gas pipeline
project. But due to U.S. sanctions on Iran, this project is under threat, as Pakistan is being
warned not to move forward with it.

Is Israel the new hegemon in the Middle East?

A regional hegemon is a country that is so powerful in its region that:

●​ It faces no serious military threats from neighboring states.

●​ It doesn't expect a real rival to emerge.
●​ And it can act freely without external support.

Example of a True Hegemon: The United States

●​ By the early 20th century, the U.S. dominated the Western Hemisphere.
●​ After driving out European colonial powers, no Latin American state could challenge
it.
●​ Since the late 1800s, there hasn’t been any serious military threat to the U.S. from
within the Americas (except the Cuban Missile Crisis, caused by an external
●​ power—Soviet Union).

This “free security” allowed America to focus its military and political efforts on Eurasia.​
So, The U.S. is the only real regional hegemon in the modern world.

Strength of Israel

1. Economic transformation despite conflict :

●​ Over the last few decades, Israel has transformed from a largely agricultural economy
into a high-tech powerhouse. Its ​
Leading sectors include Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, Defense & Aerospace
and Green Energy & Medical Tech. Ex: Companies like Elbit Systems and Rafael
Advanced Defense Systems export their products in Europe, Asia, and even parts of
the Arab world.
●​ Despite being in a conflict zone, Israel is economically stable and highly innovative,
which makes it attractive to global markets.
 ●​ Even after the Hamas attack earlier this year, Israel’s GDP began to rise again. That’s
why, Investors and markets still have confidence in Israel’s economy, viewing it as a
“safe haven” in a volatile region.
●​ Abraham Accords (2020) Normalized relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain,
and Later expanded to Morocco, Sudan, etc. These deals opened the door to trade,
investment, and cooperation in sectors like tech, agriculture, and defense. Even
countries that don’t have formal diplomatic ties with Israel Some Muslim and African
nations still invest in Israeli businesses. Much of this happens secretly, but the
economic ties are real and growing.

2. Technological and Military Superiority

●​ Israel is far ahead of its neighbors in terms of technology and military strength,
which are key features of a regional hegemon.
●​ Ex: Cyber warfare & intelligence: Israel is a global leader in cyber capabilities. Its
cyber unit, Unit 8200, is known for sophisticated surveillance and digital warfare
(e.g., the Stuxnet virus that targeted Iran’s nuclear program).
●​ Precision airstrikes: Israel regularly conducts airstrikes in Syria to target Iranian
militias and Hezbollah, showing its unmatched air power.
●​ Defense exports: Israeli companies like Elbit Systems and Rafael Advanced Defense
Systems sell advanced military tech (e.g., drones, Iron Dome) to Europe, Asia, and
even some Arab countries quietly.

Obstacles to Becoming a True Hegemon

Being a hegemon (regional leader or dominant power) is not just about having a strong
military. Military power (like advanced weapons, airstrikes, or cyber capabilities) is
important—but it’s not enough on its own. By this measure, Israel has thus far only fulfilled
one element of a hegemonic claim to power—its strong military. Its dream of dominating the
region faces structural, political, and social obstacles that go beyond its military capabilities.
Israel’s recent attacks on Iran in June 2025, under the operation “Lion Rising,” are an
example of the country’s aggressive efforts to weaken its rivals and demonstrate its authority.
But instead of gaining control, Israel’s actions have only led to greater regional instability and
strengthened resistance against Israel. As Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations
at Harvard, argues, true hegemony requires political acceptance and regional
legitimacy—something Israel is unable to achieve.

1. Limitation of military power:

●​ Israel has a very strong military with a budget of $27.5 billion (2023).​

●​ It has advanced technologies like drones, cyberwarfare tools, and precision-guided

weapons.
●​ Its attacks on Lebanon, Syria, and recently Iran, which targeted both military and
civilian infrastructure, demonstrate its ability to strike heavy blows against its
competitors.
●​ However, military power alone is not sufficient for hegemony. A regional hegemon
must be able to fully suppress its rivals or compel them to accept its authority—a
challenge Israel has failed at. For example, Despite attacks in 2023 and 2024,
Hezbollah and other groups have not been fully defeated. These groups still pose a
threat, proving that Israel cannot fully control or silence its enemies.
●​ In June 2025, Israel attacked Iran, causing significant damage.​
However, Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility remains operational, and its nuclear program
continues.​

●​ This shows that Israel has not succeeded in stopping Iran’s strategic goals. While
Israel is militarily strong, it cannot impose lasting dominance over the region.

2. Lack of regional legitimacy:

●​ To be a true hegemon (regional leader), a country must be accepted and seen as

legitimate by its neighbors.
●​ Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, siege of Gaza, and
repression of Palestinians are widely criticized. Human rights organizations have
labeled Israel’s actions as serious human rights violations. These actions create a
negative image of Israel as a repressive and aggressive power
●​ Countries like Turkey and Qatar refuse to recognize Israel as a regional leader
because of its treatment of Palestinians.
 ●​ Even countries that normalized ties with Israel (e.g., UAE and Bahrain) did so mostly
for strategic reasons or under Western (especially U.S.) influence, not because they
see Israel as a legitimate hegemon.
●​ Recent Attacks on Iran, especially during nuclear talks, have increased regional
resentment. Instead of weakening Iran, these attacks have boosted Iran’s image as a
resistor to Israeli aggression.

3. Geopolitical complexity of the Middle East:

●​ The Middle East region includes many powerful and diverse actors with
conflicting interests. This makes it very difficult for any one
country—including Israel—to dominate the entire region.
●​ Despite facing economic sanctions and military pressure, Iran still has strong
influence in Iraq, Lebanon (via Hezbollah) and Yemen (via the Houthis)
●​ Turkey has its own regional ambitions and supports groups in places like
Syria.
●​ Saudi Arabia is a wealthy and influential power that also opposes Israeli
dominance.
●​ At first, Iran saw the fall of Assad as a loss. But this didn’t help Israel. Instead,
new Sunni Muslim groups—backed by Turkey—started gaining power in
Syria. This made the situation even more difficult for Israel, because now it
had to deal with more enemies
●​ A hegemon must be able to defeat or fully suppress rivals. Israel has military
superiority in many areas, but it has not been able to defeat Iran, even after
multiple attacks.

4. Heavily dependence on the West:

●​ Israel’s military and diplomatic strength is heavily reliant on $3.8 billion/year in U.S.
military aid and Political support from the United States and Europe, especially in
international forums like the United Nations
●​ This dependence creates a major weakness. If U.S. policy shifts (e.g., a future
administration becomes less supportive), Or if global pressure increases over Israel’s
human rights violations, Western support could decline. Without this backing, Israel
will lose its ability to maintain its current position.
 ●​ Operations like “Lion Rising” (referring to Israeli military offensives) might Escalate
tensions and Risk pulling the U.S. into regional conflicts And trigger public or
political backlash in the West.
●​ True hegemony requires strategic self-sufficiency, which Israel lacks. Since Israel
cannot sustain its position without outside help, it lacks the core trait of a hegemon

5. Global Consequences of Israel’s Actions:

●​ Israel’s efforts to weaken its rivals, such as the recent attacks on Iran, did not establish
hegemony; instead, they exacerbated regional and global instability.
●​ Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil and gas transit route.​
Any conflict involving Iran could block or disrupt this passage, impacting Global oil
prices and Energy supply chains worldwide. So, Israel’s actions have heightened
global economic risks.
●​ Israel’s aggressive military behavior has Outraged public opinion in Muslim-majority
countries, which Led to mass protests and heightened tensions.​
This has increased the risk of political unrest, not only in the Middle East but also in
countries with significant Muslim populations.
●​ Instead of gaining dominance, Israel’s pursuit of hegemony is triggering instability.​

6. The need for peace, not domination:

●​ Israel cannot become the hegemon of the Middle East because true hegemony
requires a combination of military power, political legitimacy, and regional
acceptance—elements Israel lacks.
●​ Israel’s current strategy relies on aggressive military actions (e.g., occupying
Palestinian territories, attacking Iran). However, these actions have backfired
by:​
-Increasing resistance from other countries and groups​
-Damaging Israel’s reputation​
-Isolating Israel in the region
●​ Long-term safety for Israel cannot come from bombs or blockades.​
Instead, it needs a comprehensive political agreement with Its neighbors​
and Most importantly, the Palestinians.
 ●​ Aggressive policies may bring short-term tactical wins, but they Worsen
regional hostility, Delay peace and stability and Undermine Israel’s own
long-term goals

So, The global community, especially powerful Western countries, must Stop blindly
supporting Israel’s military actions and Start encouraging diplomatic solutions and dialogue.
Only through peace-based diplomacy can the cycle of violence end.