See the volume is drying up here and very tight price action,so there is no real
violations there even though they show up the violation the down days vs the up
days may be bad closes & good closes and again what i look at up days vs down
days/good closes vs bad closes, i mostly uses this nuance post the breakout.
I'm not buying the stocks because of follow through day here is the general
rule,sort of oneil rule, if you have stocks setting up and if you have stocks that
are buyable and you get a follow through day you should buy something, even it's a
small position buy whatever merchandise is available but only if stocks only
setting up , the caveat is if you have a follow through day and no stocks setting
up then it doesn't mean chasing stocks or buying extended stocks that are not setup
properly.(Follow-through day variables include: an index closing sufficiently above
1% on increased volume, positive behavior of leading stocks, and improved market
action regarding support vs. resistance levels. The most powerful follow-through
days often happen Day 4 through Day 7 of an attempted rally. In the wake of a
follow-through day, the market should continue to add gains in strong volume, with
breakouts by top stocks. This is further confirmation a new uptrend is underway.)
In a tough market the opening window is going tougher more squats ,in the good
market you just go & buy when they are going to breakout in first 15-30 mins of
opening market. - Mark
25% each position & not max more than 50% for each stock.
Short base & early turn( in terms of 200 ma just started going up) it's not the my
optimal setup i like to play- Mark
chart pattern is not the cause it is the effect -- Meaning Cause: The event or
situation that triggers or creates the effect. Effect: What results from the cause.
Ripping off high without base, angle warning -- avoid Mark
Megaphone widening the volatility just see before the breakout if there are any
resistance appearing megaphone.
Really focusing on process and getting away from results that's what i will tell
everyone in every field ..you have to get off the results.
The thing is that during that time what i find in any thing sports or most traders
what happens is once you get the hardware,tools or knowledge and it doesn't come
quickly you have tendency to feel like it doesn't work or switch and change and try
something different or look for new techniques that's lot of questions we get they
are looking for new techniques and the answer is you have to learn how to use the
techniques that you have and master those,there is no magic ,experience &
skill ,patience, discipline & courage
You wanna earn the right to play larger so you should always be thinking in the
leveraging - MM
No matter what once you entered the trade don't exit until the stop loss is
triggered or target is reached don't look into 5 mins chart after buy.
500-700 charts a day and 1000 stocks a week , both Mark & junior and i use market
smith for scanning stocks Minervini.
which screen do you use?
5 months that's the one i trade most of the stocks and 1 month would be early turns
and power plays
Angle warning -- Stocks moving up and 50 day ma or 200 ma moving down opposite
direction, this will always happen in cheats and low cheats.
the 50 ma should turn up,make it position size smaller again if you seeing a theme
working out with this trades then am going with the theme.
If the best setups not working then best thing is to be spectator until the market
turns good.
Feedback is very important, if no two digit returns better to wait with quarter
positions until you get 2 digit return like more than 15-20% profit on positions.
After a extended price ,short base would be short lived atleast for me.like 30-50 %
upmove and then consolidate for a month and then a breakout rarely go up ,atleast
it will not work for me- Mark
People are paying 5000 dollars they are flying somewhere from india some around
the world to come to a seminar on breakout strategy then go to mark Ritchie and
say this strategy doesn't work any more right,with this belief that's a lack of
confidence in self that is self image problem,that is nothing to do with strategy
these people don't believe in themselves and manifest itself that way where they
just feel skeptical about lot of things maybe they really have bad experience the
minute they feel difficulty they give up they go trying something else that they
think wokrs, you are going to come to that crossroad with every strategy with
everything no matter what. -- Mark Minervini
5-7 weeks in short side where at most 2 contractions for VCP pattern & 52-65 weeks
longer side may have 3,4,5 contractions.
I like to try to go through the first 2 natural reactions after the breakout, once
i go through couple pull backs 2-3 natural reactions now you got decent profit and
i will look to sell the stock in strength --
Look after tennis ball action after natural reaction ( TBA - Tennis ball
action ,NR - natural reaction )
Follow through buying (2-3 days or more) - institutional vs retail
More up days than down days
More good closes than bad closes
DONT buy the stocks which are wedging upwards, the handle must drift downwards and
then should be a breakout. The farther the low goes back the better i like it, it
just shakes out more people who been in stock for sometimes months and years..
David Ryan
Bullish Breakout criteria(MVP David Ryan):-
20% or more
up 12 of 15 days
Elevated volume during advance
I always look at daily chart and weekly chart.
What do all previous examples have in common? Super powerful analysis after
breakout, we are constantly gathering feedback the below characteristics
Bullish signals
1.Profitable immediately
2.follow through buying (2-3 days or more) - institutional vs retail
3.More up days(weeks) than down days(weeks)
4.More good closes than bad closes
5.NR & TBA
6.Good volume characteristics i.e. high volume rallies - low volume pullbacks.
Bearish Signals:-
1.Low volume out - high volume in
2.3-4 consecutive lower lows (on volume) No supportive action on day 3 or 4 closing
below 20 or 50 ma
3.More down days than up days
4.More bad closes than good closes
5.Close below 20 day line soon after breakout or worse 50 day line
6.wide and volatile price action
Before buying/breakout:-
See the stock shouldn't come out from 3-4-5 lower lows before you buy a breakout as
these are termed as violations before buying a stock.
200 day ma should be in uptrend bare minimum 1 month
50 day ma should be in uptrend.
1,2 punch is simply right before the breakout the volume is really really low,when
volume dries up the days before the breakout and then the breakout and volumes
comes in see really big volume on the breakout that's the elephant get in at the
bath tub,when the elephant gets in at the bath tub the water has to rise there is
no way hiding
caplin point,sundaram holding,gallantt ispat,sharda motor,sandesh,dpabhushan same
pattern after pivot reset and squat -- A reliable pattern as the weak hands are
moving out(i.e who are keeping stop losses).
Stocks starts to m0ving through the pivot point or at the time of breakout,I'm not
requiring the volume to be at certain volume at time of breakout ,if you start
calculating the volume you are going to missing good stocks. Don't complicate it.