Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
(Week 15) Lecture 29,30
Objectives: Learning objectives of this lecture are
● Conditional Probability
● Examples of Conditional Probability
● Independent and Dependent Events
● Multiplication Law of Probability
● Examples of Multiplication Law of Probability
● Bayes' Theorem
● Examples of Bayes' Theorem
Conditional Probability
The sample space for an experiment must often be changed when some additional
information pertaining to the outcome of the experiment is received.
The effect of such information is to REDUCE the sample space by excluding some
outcomes as being impossible which BEFORE receiving the information were believed
possible. The probabilities associated with such a reduced sample space are called
conditional probabilities.
The following example illustrates the concept of conditional probability
Let us consider the die-throwing experiment with sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
Suppose we wish to know the probability of the outcome that the die shows 6, say event A. If
before seeing the outcome, we are told that the die shows an even number of dots, say event B,
then the information that this die Shows an even number excludes the outcomes 1, 3 and 5, and
thereby reduces the original sample space to a sample space that consists of 3 outcomes 2, 4 and
6, i.e. the reduced sample space is B= {2 , 4 ,6 }. Then the desired probability in the reduced
1
sample space B is , since each out come in the reduce sample space is equally likely. We call
3
1
as the conditional probability of the event A because it is computed under the condition that
3
the die has shown even number of dots In other words,
P(die shows 6/die shows even numbers)
¿ 1/3 ,
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
(Where the vertical line is read as given that and the information following the vertical
line describes the conditioning event).
Sometimes, it is not very convenient to compute a conditional probability by first
determining the number of sample points that belong to the reduced sample space.
In such a situation, we can utilize the following alternative method of computing a
conditional probability CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
If A and B are two events in a sample space S and if P(B) is not equal to zero, then
the conditional probability of the event A given that event B has occurred, written as
P(A/B), is defined by
P
B ( )
A P ( A ∩ B)
=
P (B )
And
P ( BA )= P (PA( ∩A )B )
Example
Two coin are tossed. What is the conditional probability that two heads result, given
that there is at least one head?
Solution
The sample space for this experiment is
S= { HH , HT ,TH , TT }
Let A represent the event that two heads appears, and B, the event that there is at least
one head. Then we need to find P ( )
A
B
.
Since
A={ HH }
B= { HT , TH , HH }
A ∩ B= { HH }
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
So,
n ( S )=4
n ( A ) =1
1
P ( A )=
4
And
n ( B )=3
3
P ( B )=
4
Also,
n ( A ∩ B )=1
1
P ( A ∩B )=
4
So,
P ( BA )= P (PA( ∩B )B )
By putting the values, we have
1
P
A
B( )
=
4
3
4
P ( BA )= 13
Example
A man tossed two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the sum of two
dice is 7, given that?
i. The sum is greater than 6
ii. The sum is odd
iii. Same outcome on both dices
Solution
The sample space S for this experiment consists of the following 36 equally likely
outcomes
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
S= { ( 1 ,1 ) , ( 1 ,2 ) ,(1 , 3), ( 1 , 4 ) , ( 1 ,5 ) ,(1, 6) , ( 2, 1 ) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 2 ,3 ) , ( 2 , 4 ) , ( 2 ,5 ) , ( 2 , 6 ) , ( 3 ,1 ) , ( 3 ,2 ) , ( 3 , 3 ) , ( 3 , 4 ) , ( 3 ,5 ) , ( 3 ,
Now, let A be the event that sum is 7
So,
A={ ( 1 ,6 ) , ( 6 ,1 ) , ( 2 ,5 ) , ( 5 , 2 ) , ( 3 , 4 ) , ( 4 , 3 ) }
And B be the event sum is greater than 6
B= { (1 , 6 ) , ( 2 ,5 ) , ( 2 , 6 ) ( 3 , 4 ) , ( 3 , 5 ) , ( 3 , 6 ) , ( 4 ,3 ) , ( 4 , 4 ) , ( 4 , 5 ) , ( 4 , 6 ) ( 5 , 2 ) , ( 5 , 3 ) , ( 5 , 4 ) , ( 5 ,5 ) , ( 5 , 6 ) ( 6 ,1 ) , ( 6 , 2 ) ,(6 , 3)
Let C be the event that sum is odd so
C={ ( 1 , 2 ) , ( 1 , 4 ) , ( 1 , 6 ) , ( 2, 1 ) , ( 2 ,3 ) , ( 2 ,5 ) , ( 3 , 2 ) , ( 3 , 4 ) , (3 ,6 ) , ( 4 , 1 ) , ( 4 , 3 ) , ( 4 , 5 ) , (5 , 2 ) , ( 5 , 4 ) , ( 5 , 6 ) , (6 ,1 ) ,(6 ,3), ( 6
Let D be the event that same number appears on both sides so,
D= { ( 1 ,1 ) , ( 2 ,2 ) , ( 3 ,3 ) , ( 4 , 4 ) , ( 5 , 5 ) , ( 6 ,6 ) }
i. So we have to find P ( BA )
As
P ( BA )= P (PA( ∩B )B )
And
A ∩ B= { (1 , 6 ) , ( 6 , 1 ) , ( 2 , 5 ) , (5 , 2 ) , ( 3 , 4 ) , ( 4 ,3 ) }
Now,
So,
n ( S )=36
n ( A ) =6
6
P ( A )=
36
And
n ( B )=21
21
P ( B )=
36
Also,
n ( A ∩ B )=6
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
6
P ( A ∩B )=
36
So,
P ( )
A P ( A ∩ B)
B
=
P (B )
By putting the values, we have
6
P
A
B( )
=
36
21
36
P ( BA )= 216
ii. So we have to find P ( CA )
As
P ( )
A P ( A ∩C )
C
=
P (C)
And
A ∩C={ ( 1 , 6 ) , ( 6 , 1 ) , ( 2 , 5 ) , ( 5 , 2 ) , (3 , 4 ) , ( 4 , 3 ) }
Now,
So,
n ( S )=36
n ( A ) =6
6
P ( A )=
36
And
n ( C )=18
18
P (C)=
36
Also,
n ( A ∩C )=6
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
6
P ( A ∩C ) =
36
So,
P ( )
A P ( A ∩C )
C
=
P (C)
By putting the values, we have
6
P ( )
A
C
=
36
18
36
P ( CA )= 186
iii. So we have to find P ( DA )
As
P ( DA )= P (PA( ∩D D) )
And
A ∩C={ () }
Now,
So,
n ( S )=36
n ( A ) =6
6
P ( A )=
36
And
n ( D )=6
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
6
P (C)=
36
Also,
n ( A ∩C )=0
0
P ( A ∩C ) =
36
So,
P ( CA )= P (PA( ∩C
C)
)
By putting the values, we have
P ( CA )=0
Example
The probability that it will rain on the first day of July is 0.50. The probability that will
rain on both the first and second days of July is 0.4. Given that July 1 is a rainy day. What is the
probability of rain on the next day?
Solution
Let R1 denote the event that it will rain on the first day of July and R2 denote the event
that it will rain on the first and second days of July. We are given P ( R1 )=0.50and
P(R1 ∩ R2 )=0.40. Using the definition of conditional probability, the probability of rain on the
next day given that July 1 is a rainy day is
We have to find P ( )
R2
R1
So,
( )
P
R2 P(R 1 ∩ R2 )
R1
=
P ( R1)
By putting the values, we have
P
( )
R2 0.40
=
R1 0.50
¿ 0.80
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
Example
At a certain elementary school in a Western country, the school-record of the past ten
years shows that 75% of the students come from a two-parent home and that 20% of the students
are low-achievers and belong to two-parent homes. What is the probability that such a randomly
selected student will be a low achiever GIVEN THAT he or she comes from a two-parent home?
Solution
Let A denote a low achiever and B a student from a two-parent home. Applying the
relative frequency definition of probability, we have P(B)=0.75 and P( A ∩ B)=0.20 .
Thus, we obtain
P ( )
A P( A ∩ B)
B
=
P(B)
P ( BA )= 0.20
0.75
P ( BA )=0.27
Independent and Dependent Events
Sometimes the probability of an event can change, given the number of previous trials
or information about other events. Two events are independent if the probability of the second
event is not affected by the outcome of the first event. If, instead, the outcome of the
first event does affect the probability of the second event, these events are dependent.
Examples of independent events:
o flipping a coin and rolling a die
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
o flipping a coin or rolling a die twice
o choosing a card from a deck, replacing it, shuffling, and choosing again
o choosing a particular pair of shoes and the weather in Sweden
Examples of dependent events:
o choosing a card from a deck and then choosing another without putting the first card back
in the deck
o picking two marbles from a bag that contains ten black marbles and ten white marbles
without putting either marble back in the bag
o what I choose to eat for lunch and whether I am hungry by three o’clock
Independent and Dependent Events
Imagine a bag containing 5 red marbles, 3 white marbles, and 2 blue marbles. We pick two
marbles from the bag, first one and then the other, trying to get two of the same color. This
scenario can produce either independent or dependent events.
If we replace the marble we chose first and mix the marbles before making our second
choice, then the second choice will be independent from the first. However, if we do not replace
the first marble before choosing the second, this alters the probability of the second pick by
changing the number of possible outcomes: there is one fewer possibility.
When computing the probability of two events, it is important to note whether the events are
independent or dependent. The event’s status can change depending on the situation.
Consider the bag of marbles above. What is the probability of choosing two white marbles, one
after the other, if:
(a) we replace the first marble before choosing a second marble?
(b) we do not replace the first marble before choosing a second marble?
Let A = “the first marble is white” and B = “the second marble is white.”
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
Case (a): in which the first marble is replaced—is an example of two independent events. Notice
that , because the two events occur under the exact same circumstances.
Case (b)—in which the first marble is not replaced—is an example of a dependent event. If we
pick a marble and do not replace it, the sample space has changed. We still have
. However, for the second drawing, the sample space consists of only 9 marbles and, assuming
that A was successful, there are only 2 white marbles left in the bag. Thus,
and . Thus we know that case (a) is more probable
than case (b).
Multiplication Law
If A and B are any two events defined in a sample space S, then
P ( A ∩B )=P( A)P (B / A ), provided P (A )> 0,
OR
P ( A ∩B )=P(B)P( A /B) provided P(B)>0.
(The second form is easily obtained by interchanging A and B. This is called the GENERAL rule
of multiplication of
probabilities. It can be stated as follows:
“The probability that two events A and B will both occur is equal to the probability that one of
the events will occur multiplied by the conditional probability that the other event will occur
given that the first event has already occurred.”
Example
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
A box contains 15 items, 4 of which are defective and 11 is good. Two items are selected.
What is the probability that the first is good and the second defective?
Solution
Let A represent the event that the first item selected is good, and B, the event that the
second items is defective.
Then we need to calculate the probability of the JOINT event A B by the rule
P( A ∩ B)=P( A) P(B/ A ).
We have:
Type of No of
Item Items
Defective 4
Good 11
Total 15
Since all the items are equally likely to be chosen,
hence
P( A)=11/15
Given the event A has occurred, there remain 14 items of which 4 are defective. Therefore, the
probability of selecting a defective item after a good item has been selected is 4/14 i.e.
P(B/ A)=4 /14.
Hence
¿ P( A) P(B / A )
¿ 11/15 × 4 /14
¿ 44 /210
= 0.16.
Example
A Farmer has 32 eggs 7 out of 32 have blood spot. Eggs are from box checked one by one.
find probability that
i. First egg is spot and 2nd and 3rd are clear.
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
ii. 4 Eggs are checked find the probability alternate order starting from 1st one is clear.
Solution
Let S1 be the event that first egg is spot.
Let S2be the event that 2nd is cleared.
Let S3 be the event that 3rd is cleared.
i.
P ( S 1 ⋂ S2 ⋂ S 3 )=?
P (S1) × P
( )(
S2
S1
P
S3
= × ×
)
7 25 24
S 1 ⋂ S 2 32 31 30
35
¿
248
ii.
25 7 24 6
P ( C1 ⋂ S 2 ⋂ C 3 ⋂ S 4 ) = × × ×
32 31 30 29
105
¿
3596
Bayes' Theorem
If the event’s A1 , A 2 , A3 , … … … .. A k form a partition of a sample space. S, that is, the
events Ai are mutually exclusive and their union is S, and if B is any other event of S such that it
can occur only if one of the Ai occurs, then any for any i ,
P ( Ai ) P
( )
B
( )
Ai Ai
P = ❑
B B
∑
❑
P( A i) P( )
A i
for i=1 ,2 , 3 , … … … … … … k
Example
The members of a consulting firm rent cars from three rental agencies:40 percent from
agency 1, 35 percent from agency 2 and 25 percent from agency 3. If 8 percent of the cars from
agency 1 need a tune-up, 18 percent of the cars from agency 2 need a tune-up, and 7 percent of
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
the cars from agency 3 need a tune-up. If a rental car delivered to the consulting firm needs a
tune-up, what is the probability that it came from rental agency 2?
Solution
Let A1 be the event that that member of consulting firm rent car from agency-1 so
P ( A 1 )=0.4
Let A2be the event that member of consulting firm rent car from agency-2 so
P ( A 2 )=0.35
Let A3be the event that member of consulting firm rent car from agency-3 so
P ( A 3 ) =0.25
Let W be the event that defines the tune-up of the car than
P
w
A1
=0.08( )
P
( )
w
A2
=0.18
P ( Aw )=0.07
3
We have to find
P ( )=
A 2
( A )
W
P ( A2 ) P
2
(A ) (A ) (A )
W W W W
P( A ) P 1 +P ( A ) P +P ( A ) P
2 3
1 2 3
P ( WA )= ( 0.4 ) ( 0.08) +( (0.35
2 0.35 ) ( 0.18 )
) ( 0.18 )+ ( 0.25 )( 0.07 )
P ( )
A2
W
=0.56
Example
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
Three jars of have the following proportions of white and black balls:
Jar A: 1 white, 2 black balls
Jar B: 2 white, 1 black balls
Jar C: 2 white, 2 black balls
One of the jars is selected and a ball is drawn from it. It turns out to be white.
What is the probability that jar C was chosen?
Solution
Let W be event that white ball is selected and A1 be the event for jar A , A2 be the event
for jar B and A3 for jar C.
Than
1
P ( A 1 )=
3
1
P ( A 2 )=
3
1
P ( A3)=
3
W
Where be the event that white ball is selected form jar A
A1
W
be the event that white ball is selected form jar B
A2
W
be the event that white ball is selected form jar C
A3
So,
P
W
( )
A1 3
=
1
P
( WA )= 23
2
P ( )
W
=
A3 4
2
We have to find P ( )
A3
W
By using Bayes' Theorem
P ( )=
A 3
( A )
W
P ( A3 ) P
3
( WA )+ P ( A ) P ( WA )+ P ( A ) P ( WA )
W
P( A ) P1 2 3
1 2 3
Statistics and Probability (STT-500)
Mr. Qasim email id: qasim@[Link], WhatsApp# 0302-3263494
By putting the values, we have
1 2
×
P( )
A3
W
=
3 4
1 1 1 2 1 2
× + × + ×
3 3 3 3 3 4
P ( WA )= 13
3
