UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA
ASSIGNMENT 2
COURSE : NUMERICAL METHODS WITH APPLICATIONS
COURSE CODE : MEC500
DEADLINE : WEEK 14
MODE : GROUP ASSIGNMENT
GROUP ASSIGNMENT GUIDELINES
1. Answer ALL questions in ENGLISH.
2. Use the provided format for the cover page and answer template.
It is COMPULSORY to use computational tools (MATLAB/OCTAVE) to complete this
3.
assignment.
4. Answers WITHOUT computational approach or simulation tool will result in ZERO marks.
Each student needs to send in a softcopy of the assignment through MS TEAMS at your respective
class setting not later than 16 JULY 2023 (11:59 PM) with the file name:
5. a) ClassID_GroupNo.pdf (Report)
b) ClassID_GroupNo.m (m.file)
*only insert the information in blue.
This assignment is designed for Course Outcome 3 (CO3) and 4 (CO4) of the course:
CO3: Evaluate the numerical techniques in solving engineering problems [PO3] {C6}.
PO3: Able to design solutions for complex engineering problems and design systems, components
or processes that meet specified needs with appropriate consideration for public health and safety,
6. cultural, societal, environmental considerations (WK5).
CO4: Construct computational approach to solve mathematical problems [PO5] {P4}.
PO5: Able to Create, select and apply appropriate techniques, resources, and modern engineering
and IT tools, including prediction and modelling, to complex engineering problems, with an
understanding of the limitations (WK6).
UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA
ASSIGNMENT 2
COURSE : NUMERICAL METHODS WITH APPLICATIONS
COURSE CODE : MEC500
DEADLINE : WEEK 14
MODE : GROUP ASSIGNMENT
GROUP NO DUE DATE SUBMISSION DATE REMARKS
GROUP 2 23rd JULY 2023 23rd JULY 2023
LECTURER NAME IR. TS. DR SYAHRUL AFZAL BIN CHE ABDULLAH
No Name Student ID
1 MUHAMMAD FAIZ BIN MOHD RODZLAN 2020827898
2 MOHAMAD IMRAN FAHMI BIN NAZIR 2020847238
3 MUHAMMAD HAZIQ ILMAM BIN HASLIZAN 2020601798
4 SYAZWAN IZZAN BIN ZAINAL AZMAN 2020847296
Allocated
NO CO / PO Assessment Criteria (Report) Marks
Marks
1. CO3/PO3/C5 Defining problems 4.0
2. CO3/PO3/C5 Defining method and criteria 2.0
3. CO4/PO5/P4 Display computational approach 6.0
4. CO4/PO5/P4 Illustrate and report the findings 2.0
5. CO4/PO5/P4 Execution of computational approach 2.0
6. CO3/PO3/C5 Discussion and conclusions 4.0
TOTAL 20%
Regression is used to predict numerical values given a certain input. Linear regression attempts to model
the line of best fit that explains the relationship between two or more variables by fitting a linear
equation to observed data. Polynomial regression on the other hand is a form of regression analysis in
which the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable is modelled as an
nth-degree polynomial. In regression analysis, one variable is set as the independent (or explanatory)
variable, and the other variable is the dependent (or response) variable.
Before fitting a linear or polynomial model to observed data, first one should determine whether there
is a relationship between the variables of interest. This does not necessarily imply that one variable
causes the other because correlation does not necessarily imply causation. In other words, the correlation
between two events or variables simply indicates that a relationship exists, whereas causation is more
specific and says that one event causes the other.
For example, men who wear larger shoes are taller than those who wear smaller shoes. From the data,
we may see that as shoe size increases, so does height. Using the data, we want to do more than just say
that shoe size and height are related: we want to have a way to predict (guess) a man’s height from his
shoe size. To do that, we use linear regression, in which we make a straight line that goes the closest to
the most data.
In this assignment, you are expected to do the following:
1. Choose ONE set of data related to engineering that is either cross-section or time series. Include
any relevant information that can verify the data.
For utility companies and energy providers, measuring electric consumption is essential for
efficient load management and resource planning. Accurate data on electricity usage helps them
forecast demand, allocate resources, and ensure a stable and reliable power supply to their
customers. It also enables them to implement demand response programs, encouraging
consumers to shift their electricity usage during peak times, thereby reducing strain on the grid
and preventing blackouts.
Therefore, we decide to measure the prediction of electric consumption in Malaysia from the
data that we gained. The Suruhanjaya Tenaga published the Malaysia Energy Statistics
Handbook 2020, which is where we obtained this collection of time series data covering the
years 1990 through 2018. From the result, we can gain useful information to prepare for any
circumstances.
Year Electric Consumption (kWh)
1990 1001
1991 1206
1992 1352
1993 1453
1994 1692
1995 1897
1996 2068
1997 2341
1998 2382
1999 2443
2000 2603
2001 2706
2002 2804
2003 2930
2004 3022
2005 3099
2006 3183
2007 3300
2008 3367
2009 3429
2010 3656
2011 3693
2012 3943
2013 4074
2014 4179
2015 4248
2016 4553
2017 4576
2018 4721
[CO3: 4 MARKS]
States the problems and objectives clearly and
Does not identify the problems and objectives.
identifies underlying issues.
*There should be at least 20 observations in your data set. Provide a brief background of the situation you are going to
look at. Specifically, why did you choose the dependent or independent variable ?
*The data can be either cross-section or time series.
2. Identify METHODS that can be used in solving the problem. Briefly describe the theory involved.
We apply a method called linear regression to extract the curve's function from experimental
data that contains a lot of distortion or inaccuracy.
The dependent variable is electricity consumption while the independent variable is year. The
relationship between the independent and dependent variables is that as the year increases, the
amount of electricity consumed also increases. This is because there are more people using
electricity each year, and the demand for electricity is increasing.
1. Regression model, y:
𝑦𝑦 = 𝑎𝑎0 + 𝑎𝑎1𝑥𝑥
2. Slope, 𝑎𝑎1:
3. Intercept, 𝑎𝑎0:
4. Error after regression, 𝑆𝑆r∶
5. Error before regression, 𝑆𝑆t∶
6. Standard error of the estimation, 𝑆𝑆y/x ∶
7. Coefficient of determination, 𝑟𝑟2∶
[CO3: 2 MARKS]
Develops a clear and concise plan to solve the Does not develop a coherent plan to solve the
problem, offers alternative strategies problem
* Indicate the general model that you are going to estimate. Discuss what you think the relationship is between the
dependent variable and the independent variables, and what that leads you to conclude about the expected signs of the
coefficients in the model.
3. Solve the problem using Matlab/Octave. Display a snapshot of the .m file.
[CO4: 6 MARKS]
Excellent use of white space. Creatively
Does not develop a coherent plan to solve the
organized work. Excellent use of variables and
constants. No magic numbers. problem
4. Illustrate your findings and conclude your observation from the graph.
[CO4: 2 MARK]
Report the results clearly and identify
Does not identify the solution to the problem.
underlying issues.
*Make sure to make proper labelling for your plot.
*Calculate the correlation between each of the independent variables and the dependent variable.
5. Runtime of .m file (to be assessed by the lecturer)
Linear Regression Method .m file:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E2TUBWGzokXTMia7StzKWY9iaRDA-
rS3/view?usp=sharing
[CO4: 2 MARKS]
Executes without errors, excellent user prompts, Does not execute due to syntax errors/runtime
good use of symbols, and spacing in output. errors (endless loop, crashes etc.) User prompts
are misleading or non-existent.
6. Discuss and summarize the results of your analysis and include your final answer in the proper SI
unit.
The analysis of electricity consumption versus year using linear regression has produced highly
significant and reliable results. The coefficient of determination (R-squared) is impressively
high at 0.9902, indicating that approximately 99.02% of the variation in electricity consumption
can be explained by the year variable in the model. This suggests a robust and strong
relationship between electricity consumption and the passage of time. The estimated linear
regression model, in proper SI units, can be expressed as:
Electricity Consumption (kWh) = 𝑎𝑎₀ + 𝑎𝑎₁ * Year
where 𝑎𝑎₀ represents the intercept, indicating the electricity consumption at Year = 0, and 𝑎𝑎₁
represents the slope, representing the rate of change in electricity consumption per year.
The Residual Sum of Squares (Sr1) is 307932.50 kWh, and the Total Sum of Squares (St1) is
31321397.31 kWh, indicating that the model explains most of the variability in the data, leaving
only a small amount of unexplained variability. The Standard Error of the Estimate (Syx1) is
106.79 kWh, which represents the average deviation between observed electricity consumption
values and those predicted by the model.
Overall, the high R-squared value and small Syx1 indicate that this linear regression model is
an excellent fit for the data, and the year variable is a significant predictor of electricity
consumption. However, it is essential to exercise caution when extrapolating predictions
beyond the observed year range and perform further validation and diagnostics to ensure the
model's reliability and generalizability.
[CO2: 4 MARKS]
Report the results clearly and
identify underlying issues. Does not identify the solution to the
problem.
*Summarize the results of your analysis.
*Present the estimated model. Give an interpretation of the coefficient of determination (r2).
*Use your model to make a prediction for any combination of values for your independent variables.
